Stop the World: TSD Summit Sessions: ASEAN, regional stability and disruptive tech with Dato’ Astanah Abdul Aziz

In the latest video edition of The Sydney Dialogue Summit Sessions, Bethany Allen, Head of China Investigations and Analysis at ASPI, speaks with Her Excellency Dato’ Astanah Abdul Aziz, Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN for Political-Security Community.

They discuss Dato’s career path and how her time as a diplomat within Malaysia’s foreign ministry led to her current role with ASEAN. They also explore the role of ASEAN and the value that it brings to the region – not just economic value but also in building relationships.

With growing tensions in the South China Sea, Bethany and Dato’ discuss how ASEAN can contribute to greater stability in the Indo-Pacific. They also talk about how ASEAN nations are working to address the rise of disruptive technologies, particularly artificial intelligence.

Dato and Bethany were both panellists at The Sydney Dialogue, ASPI’s premier policy summit for critical, emerging and cyber technologies, held on September 2 and 3. This special episode is the fourth in a series of podcasts filmed on the sidelines of the conference, which will be released in the coming weeks. 

Speakers: 
Her Excellency Dato’ Astanah Abdul Aziz 
Bethany Allen

TSD Summit Sessions: Intelligence and evolving technology with Michael Rogers and Jason Healey

In the third video edition of The Sydney Dialogue Summit Sessions, Jason Healey, Senior Research Scholar at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, sits down with Admiral Michael Rogers (Ret’d), Senior Advisor at Trusted Future, to discuss all things intelligence.

Jason was a founding member of both the Office of the National Cyber Director at the White House and the first cyber command in the world, the Joint Task Force for Computer Network Defense, while Michael is a former Commander of the US Cyber Command and Director of the US National Security Agency.

The conversation explores how Michael’s career began as a surface warfare officer and how he made the transition into the world of intelligence, as well as how signals intelligence has changed over time and whether it will stay the same in the decades ahead.

With Australia no longer having a 10‑year window of strategic warning time ahead of major conflict, they also talk about intelligence and warning. Jason asks Michael how intelligence can provide better warning and whether the job is becoming more difficult as the world becomes more complex.

Jason and Michael were both panellists at The Sydney Dialogue, ASPI’s premier policy summit for critical, emerging and cyber technologies, held on September 2 and 3. This special episode is the third in a series of podcasts filmed on the sidelines of the conference, which will be released in the coming weeks.

Check out ASPI’s YouTube channel here to watch the full video.


Speakers:
Jason Healey
Admiral Michael Rogers (Ret’d)⁠

Stop the World: Multilateralism, UN reform and the WDSN with Lisa Sharland

In the latest episode of Stop the World, Olivia Nelson sits down with Lisa Sharland, Senior Fellow and Director of the Protecting Civilians and Human Security program at the Stimson Centre. The conversation, which was recorded in July, discusses the United Nations (UN) and how the multilateral system is adapting – or struggling to adapt – to rapid global change. They also discuss the UN’s Summit of the Future which aims to find international consensus on pressing global issues.

The conversation also covers peacekeeping and Australia’s role in it, the challenges that women face in multilateral settings, and how gender equality and women’s security relates to broader national and international security. Finally, as ASPI celebrates the 10th anniversary of the Women in Defence and Security Network (WDSN), Lisa and Olivia explore the evolving presence and contribution of women in Australia’s national security landscape.

Speakers:
Olivia Nelson
⁠⁠Lisa Sharland⁠

Mentioned in this episode:
⁠https://www.stimson.org/2022/strengthening-human-rights-translating-multilateral-commitments-into-action/⁠
https://www.stimson.org/2023/host-country-consent-in-un-peacekeeping/
https://www.stimson.org/2024/the-role-of-air-power-in-un-peacekeeping/

Stop the World: TSD Summit Sessions: Strengthening peace and stability with Baiba Braže

In the second video edition of The Sydney Dialogue Summit Sessions, ASPI’s Executive Director Justin Bassi sits down with Latvia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Baiba Braže. Justin and Baiba discuss the partnership between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific, and how democracies can work together to strengthen regional and global stability.

They also discuss Russia and China’s “no-limits partnership”, how Beijing is enabling Russia’s war on Ukraine through the provision of technological supplies, and what countries like Australia and Latvia can do to maintain the rules-based international order. Minister Braže was a panellist at The Sydney Dialogue, ASPI’s premier policy summit for critical, emerging and cyber technologies, held on September 2 and 3. This special episode is the second in a series of podcasts filmed on the sidelines of the conference, which will be released in the coming weeks.

Check out ASPI’s YouTube channel here to watch the full video

Stop the World: TSD Summit Sessions: How to navigate the deep fake and disinformation minefield with Nina Jankowicz

The Sydney Dialogue is over, but never fear, we have more TSD content coming your way! This week, ASPI’s David Wroe speaks to Nina Jankowicz, global disinformation expert and author of the books How to Lose the Information War and How to Be a Woman Online.

Nina takes us through the trends she is seeing in disinformation across the globe, and offers an assessment of who does it best, and whether countries like China and Iran are learning from Russia. She also discusses the links between disinformation and political polarisation, and what governments can do to protect the information domain from foreign interference and disinformation.

Finally, Dave asks Nina about her experience being the target of disinformation and online harassment, and the tactics being used against many women in influential roles, including US Vice President Kamala Harris and Australia’s eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant, in attempts to censor and discredit them.

Guests:
⁠David Wroe
⁠Nina Jankowicz

Stop the World: TSD Summit Sessions: Defence, intelligence and technology with Shashank Joshi

In the final lead-in episode to the Sydney Dialogue (but not the last in the series!), ASPI’s Executive Director, Justin Bassi, interviews Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at the Economist.  

They discuss technology, security and strategic competition, including the impact of artificial intelligence on defence and intelligence operations, the implications of the no-limits partnership between Russia and China and increasing alignment between authoritarian states. They also cover the challenge of protecting free speech online within a framework of rules which also protects public safety.

They talk about Shashank’s latest Economist report ‘Spycraft: Watching the Watchers’, which explores the intersection of technology and intelligence, and looks at the history of intel and tech development, including advancements from radio to the internet and encryption.

The Sydney Dialogue (TSD) is ASPI’s flagship initiative on cyber and critical technologies. The summit brings together world leaders, global technology industry innovators and leading thinkers on cyber and critical technology for frank and productive discussions. TSD 2024 will address the advances made across these technologies and their impact on our societies, economies and national security.

Find out more about TSD 2024 here: ⁠https://tsd.aspi.org.au/⁠    

Mentioned in this episode: ⁠https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2024-07-06⁠  

Guests:
⁠Justin Bassi⁠
Shashank Joshi

Stop the World: TSD Summit Sessions: Technology innovation and investment with Gilman Louie

The Sydney Dialogue (TSD) is just weeks away.

To help our listeners prepare for the forthcoming discussions at TSD, we are bringing you an interview with Gilman Louie, who was the first CEO of In-Q-Tel— set up in 1999 by the CIA as an independent, not-for-profit strategic investment firm —and Commissioner on the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence from 2018-2021. Gilman is co-founder and partner at Alsop Louie Partners, and he is also a co-founder and CEO of the America’s Frontier Fund, so there is no one better placed to talk about strategic competition, innovation and investment.

Director of the Sydney Dialogue, Alex Caples, asks Gilman about the role of technology as a component of state power, how the innovation landscape has changed in the United States and how the government and private sector are working together on innovation and investment in the design and manufacturing of technologies.

TSD is ASPI’s flagship event for cyber and critical technologies. The summit brings together world leaders, global technology industry innovators and leading thinkers on cyber and critical technology for frank and productive discussions. TSD 2024 will address the advances made across these technologies and their impact on our societies, economies and national security.

Find out more about TSD 2024 here: ⁠https://tsd.aspi.org.au/⁠

Guests:

⁠Dr Alexandra Caples⁠

⁠Gilman Louie

Stop the World: Explainer: A quick dive into subsea cables with Jocelinn Kang and Jessie Jacob

Subsea cables have been a major focus in the media lately. Just last week at the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Tokyo, Australia announced the launch of its new Cable Connectivity and Resilience Centre—its contribution to the Quad Leaders’ Partnership for Cable Connectivity and Resilience.

So, what are subsea or undersea cables and why are they important? In this short explainer, Olivia Nelson speaks with ASPI experts Jocelinn Kang and Jessie Jacob about this vital strategic asset, where their vulnerabilities lie, and their role in Australia’s resilience.

Transcript:

Dave: Welcome to stop the world. The ASPI podcast on security and International Affairs. I’m David Wroe

Liv: and I’m Olivia Nelson.

Dave: Now, first of all, Liv, how did I not know that Tassie was completely cut off for a while in 2022?

Liv: Well you aren’t alone there, Dave. I’m embarrassed to admit that I also missed that.

Dave: Now I’m choosing not to believe that we just weren’t paying attention to our beloved southern state, but rather, there was just a lot going on that year. But thankfully, to explain all of this issue with subsea cables, we’ve got a short treat for our listeners ahead of our regular Friday programming. Liv, you’ve spoken with two of our experts here at ASPI, Jocelinn Kang and Jesse Jacob.

Liv: That’s right, Dave, I asked Jo and Jess to give us a crash course on the infrastructure we all take for granted, but about which most of us know very little. What are subsea cables? Why are they important, and what are their vulnerabilities?

Dave: So Liv, I’ve got to tell you, Jo actually explained to me the other day how the internet works, and it was bloody useful. Now you’ve done the same for subsea cables today, which I’m very grateful for, and it’s done quickly, which is just what our busy listeners need. So with no further ado from us, let’s dive into the conversation.

Liv: We’re hearing more and more about subsea cables, their strategic importance and vulnerabilities. So today, I’m pleased to be joined by ask these Jocelinn Kang and Jessie Jacob to provide a bit of an overview for our listeners. Jo, I might turn to you first, what are submarine cables and why are they important?

Jo: Thanks, Liv. Submarine cables are the conduit that carries almost all the world’s international data traffic. So if you’re listening to this podcast and you don’t live on the Australian mainland, I can almost guarantee that it traveled via a submarine cable to get to you. Now they’ve always been a strategic asset because they’ve enabled communications to far off lands, but today they’re even more critical because of how much we rely on the data that they transport for businesses, financial markets, military and civilian comms. And of course, things like Facebook and Tiktok and Google search. Submarine cables represent the most cost effective high speed way to transport massive amounts of data.

Liv: So not satellites, Jess? Isn’t that how information is communicated globally?

Jess: No, not really, and it’s really common to think that, but the vast majority is through these subsea cables. Now, this isn’t to say that satellites don’t get used. They certainly are. And they’re good for remote areas with no cable connectivity. But they don’t carry nearly the same amount of data, nor at the same speeds. They’re certainly better than nothing, and they have been used as communication backups recently in places like the Ukraine and in Tonga when they lost their subsea cable connectivity. But they don’t sort of kick in like a one to one backup like a power generator would if the mains go out. So in that regard, it’s better to focus on the resilience of sub cables themselves, rather than satellites.

Jo: To give you an example of the consequences of losing your submarine cable access, we just need to look at Tasmania in 2022 when both the main submarine cables were cut within hours of each other. This caused a widespread outage, and it meant flight delays, loss of access to ATMs and EFTPOS facilities, and that forced businesses to close.

Liv: So Jo, what do these cables look like? Well, I was fascinated to discover that, believe it or not, when they’re lying on the seabed, deep in the ocean, they’re only about the size of a garden hose. Other parts that are closer to shore, they’re a bit thicker because they have more protective armour around them. But the part that actually carries the data, they’re thin strands of fibre optic cable, and the rest of the cable, it’s actually just to give it structure, power and protection. So the power is for repeaters on the cable, so that they can amplify the light signal down the line.

(Jo misspoke here. It’s not structure, but rather insulation)

Liv: And what is the armour for? Am I right to assume that sharks are a threat to national resilience

Jo: In the very early days of having communication cables under the sea, unfortunately, whales used to get entangled in the cable lines, and sharks did actually bite the cables. But since the 1950s the industry started burying the cables in shallower areas to protect them from more frequent bits of anchors and bottom trawling fishing gear. Now, as a result, whales no longer become entangled, and shark bites have reduced. But it really should be said that shark bites, or fish bites, they only made up about 0.1% of cable faults, and since 2006 they’ve actually been no reported shark related cable faults.

Liv: It’s a pretty tiny figure. So what are the biggest threats to the cables?

Jo: Humans.

Jess: –but not humans biting cables. So the most likely cause of damage to cables is actually fishing related. As Jocelinn mentioned earlier, a boat anchor can be dragged across a line, trawling activities and that sort of thing. It’s often done by accident, but of course, could be done on purpose, and it would be pretty hard to prove.

Liv: I’m trying to visualise what happens when a cable gets damaged. Say, I’m watching Netflix and a cable gets cut, does my internet suddenly go out and my Sunday night is ruined?

Jess: Well, whether or not your night was ruined kind of depends on what you’re watching. But seriously, though, if we remove from this scenario any caching or local data storage aspects and focus on how data moves globally, the data gets rerouted away from the damage cable to a different one. And this is why redundancy is so important and a big part of resilience.

Liv: There’s that R word again, resilience. What does resilience look like when it comes to sub cables?

Jo: Well, the way I see it, a resilient submarine cable system is one that operates with minimal disruption and ideally no disruption. But that’s in a perfect world. And the reality is, cable disruptions happen, and they will continue to happen. So, resilience means we need to protect the system to try and avoid disruptions, and then in the event a disruption occurs, that we can be in a place where we can quickly recover.

Liv: So how can we do that? Jo?

Jo: There are a few ways we can protect and try to prevent disruptions, physical security for one of the cables themselves, such as putting armour around them. But even more important is protecting the areas where cables are concentrated, so the areas of ocean where they come up to landfall, and the cable landing stations where these cables are connecting to terrestrial networks. We’ve also mentioned redundancy previously. This is another way, which is about having alternate paths for the data to use in the event of a disruption. So this could mean alternate cable pathways, but also alternate modes of transport, like terrestrial fibre or satellite links. The other element of protection is cybersecurity. So protecting the cable management networks, these are the ones that control the data flows across the submarine cable network. Then, of course, in the event that a disruption occurs, we would want to be able to quickly recover, and this means having an effective and efficient repair capability. So, repair ships to restore that connectivity.

Liv: Okay, so because we don’t have major disruptions, I assume that Australia has all of these elements of protection in place?

Jess: Well, more can be done to protect cable landing stations, and I think there’s a bit of a choke point, so a clustering of cables in Sydney, but in many other areas, Australia is in a relatively good spot. We have multiple cables, and they generally land in geographically diverse locations. And Australia legislates for the protection of several areas for cables. They’re called protection zones. Now, I would say the more problematic issue is the cable repair industry. It’s kind of barely hanging on. There are a limited number of repair ships. Those are surprisingly hard to pin down, but out of about 70 cable ships worldwide, about a third of those are designated repair it’s an aging fleet and an aging workforce getting a cable repair quickly has a worrying amount of luck involved. You want to have a repair ship nearby and be high on the repair priority list.

Liv: And what about using the other ships you mentioned?

Jo: They’re busy and set up to lay new cables as we transition more to cloud and AI and then 6g and everything that enables that’s going to mean more data traffic. Now, if all that data traffic wants to move across oceans, that’s going to mean more cables

Jess: Mmm exactly, and more cables require more repair ships and a solid cable repair industry. It’s the biggest gap Australia has in the resilience piece.

Jo: It’s one of those things that when it works, it works, and you won’t even know about it, but when it doesn’t…

Liv: …everything grinds to a halt?

Jess: Yeah, I think it’s customary in the sub cables field, to quote the US Federal Reserve’s Stephen Malphrus here, who spoke in reference to the financial sector and said when the communications networks go down, it doesn’t grind to a halt. It snaps to a halt. And he said that nearly 15 years ago.

Liv: Scary stuff. Thanks Jo and Jess for explaining the importance and vulnerabilities of subsea cables to our listeners. I look forward to having you back on the podcast soon.

Jo: Thanks Liv.

Jess: Thanks.

Guests:

⁠Olivia Nelson⁠

⁠Jocelinn Kang⁠

Jessie Jacob

Stop the World: Understanding AUSMIN, with Kim Beazley and Marise Payne

AUSMIN (Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations) – what is it, how did it come about, and why is it important?

ASPI’s own former AUSMIN attendees, Executive Director, Justin Bassi, and Director of Strategic Communications, David Wroe, reminisce about the annual AUSMIN meeting, its Cold War history and its ongoing significance for the Australia-US relationship, how it has evolved over time, and what you need to know ahead of next week’s 34th meeting.

The episode features reflections from the Hon Kim Beazley AC, an AUSMIN founding member who attended the first five meetings as Minister for Defence, and Marise Payne, one of only two people to have attended AUSMIN as both Foreign and Defence minister throughout six meetings. They provide some behind-the-scenes insights into what the meetings were like, the benefits of the these meetings and some of the most significant moments across the AUSMIN meetings they attended.

For anyone interested in understanding one of the key mechanisms in the US-Australia alliance, this is a useful primer to next week’s meeting!

Stop the World: Japan in a blizzard of Indo-Pacific diplomacy with Guiborg Delamotte and Yamagami Shingo

In today’s episode, senior analyst Dr Alex Bristow is joined by Professor Guibourg Delamotte, Professor of Political Science at the Japanese studies department of the French Institute of Oriental Studies and Yamagami Shingo, former Japanese Ambassador to Australia, who is also, among several roles, Senior Fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

They discuss this week’s “blizzard of Indo-Pacific diplomacy”, which has included the Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting in Tokyo, a US-Japan 2+2, an ASEAN meeting in Laos, and a visit by Foreign Minister Penny Wong to several countries in Asia including South Korea, where she made strong remarks about North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia.

They also cover the prospect of Japan’s joining AUKUS Pillar Two, to collaborate on cutting-edge defence technologies.

It’s a fascinating recap on some of this week’s big events with two leading experts on Japan.

By Professor Guibourg Delamotte