The FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo on Trump’s tariffs and the disappearing Chinese general

The United States-China tit-for-tat tariffs have been escalating faster than the bids at a Sydney house auction in the early 2010s. ‘Trade war’ is the headline. But does Donald Trump have a strategy to decouple, or is he angling for a grand bargain? Either way, Xi Jinping is making it clear that China has a vote (even if its people don’t).

Demetri Sevastopulo, the Financial Times’ US-China correspondent, explains the possible plays behind the numbers, the rival points of leverage in the brewing trade war, the implications for US partners and allies, the competition for influence within the Trump administration, and the latest on TikTok and Taiwan.

Demetri also gives us a real-time analysis of his latest scoop in the FT, revealing the purging of the PLA’s number two general, He Weidong.

Stop the World: The road to artificial general intelligence, with Helen Toner

Australian AI expert Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She also spent two years on the board of OpenAI, which put her at the centre of the dramatic events in late 2023 when OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was briefly sacked before being reinstated.

David Wroe speaks with Helen about the curve humanity is on towards artificial general intelligence—which will be equal to or better than humans at everything—progress with the new “reasoning” models; the arrival of China’s DeepSeek; the need for regulation; democracy and AI; and the risks of AI.

They finish by discussing what will life be like if we get AI right and it solves all our problems for us? Will it be great, or boring?

Bringing Russia’s war criminals to justice, with Nobel Prize winner Oleksandra Matviichuk

Ukrainian human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk heads the Center for Civil Liberties, which won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize for its work documenting Russian war crimes. She speaks with Stop the World about her hopes that Vladimir Putin and other powerful Russians can be held accountable for their human rights abuses against Ukrainians.

Oleksandra also talks about Ukraine’s resilience and morale, the need for a just peace, the collapse of the international order, her organisation’s work documenting more than 84,000 Russian war crimes, the need for a new approach to international justice, and why Ukraine is fighting not just for itself but for all of us … and for the future of the free world.

Vladimir Putin is taking the peace, with Peter Tesch

During a two hour phone call this week with US President Donald Trump, Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin did what everyone expected—he raised impossible demands, promised next to nothing, and generally made a mockery of Trump’s patience. 

Australia’s former Ambassador to Russia and Germany Peter Tesch speaks with David Wroe about the dynamic between Trump and Putin, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s perilous place in the middle, Ukraine’s courageous fight for global democracy, the future of European security, the shape of a new world in which major powers carve out spheres of influence, and Australia’s defence investment with the budget and election looming. Peter and David also discuss gaps in their reading habits.

What’s happening in Syria, with Aaron Zelin

Syria has been front and centre in the news in recent days, with international agencies saying that hundreds and perhaps thousands have been killed – many of them civilians – in the coastal regions of the country.

In today’s podcast, David Wroe speaks to Aaron Zelin, the Gloria and Ken Levy Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, about developments in Syria since the fall of the Assad dynasty in December. They discuss the political and security situation in Syria, including leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and the basis of his power. They consider life for ordinary Syrians, the question of justice for victims of the former regime, how the various factions fit together and Syria’s relations with the region and the world.

Europe steps up, with Constanze Stelzenmüller

Constanze Stelzenmüller, expert on German, European, and trans-Atlantic foreign and security policy and strategy at the Brookings Institution, gives Stop the World her short take on the remarkable sense of urgency that Europe is displaying in building its own security capabilities: “I’ve never seen anything like this in my life.”

Her longer answer is a superb dissection of the radical reorientation coming out of the Trump administration—what she calls a “Yalta 2.0”; the likelihood that much of the world might have other ideas, leading a frustration of Trump’s instincts; Europe’s shortening patience for the skulduggery of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán; its need to keep the US engaged in Europe’s security; and ultimately the proper sense that Europe has accepted the need to step up to defend Ukraine and itself over the longer term.

Her conclusion: “I think we might all have to sort of buckle our seat belts.”

The Economist’s Shashank Joshi on Trump, Ukraine and Europe’s rearmament

Donald Trump has upended US foreign policy—in particular his nation’s role in supporting Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and its traditionally close relationship with its NATO allies in Europe. As a consequence, Europe is scrambling to lift its defence investment and capability with a sense of urgency not seen in the post-War years.

The Economist’s Defence Editor Shashank Joshi gives us his expert take on the latest developments, what they mean and where the world is headed from here. Shashank helps us to understand what Trump is trying to do, how Europe sees the threat from Russia in a possible future in which Putin’s aggression is rewarded rather than penalised, and the increasingly positive signs of strong European leadership to take up the role defending a liberal international order. Finally he gives his view on what it all means for Australia and the Indo-Pacific.

Status update: Responsible state behaviour in cyberspace

2025 is a pivotal year for international cyber governance. Not only is it the tenth anniversary of the international community’s agreement to a global framework for responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, but it is also the year that the UN Open-Ended Working Group on security of and in the use of information and communications technologies will conclude its mandate. This sets the stage for the establishment of a more permanent mechanism for global cyber discussions.

To discuss these developments and reflect on how states around the world have interpreted and operationalised responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, ASPI’s Gatra Priyandita speaks with two leading cyber experts, Farlina Said from the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, and Louise Marie Hurel, from the Royal United Services Institute in London. 

Stop the World: Why Ukraine matters to the Indo-Pacific

Today on Stop the World, the conversation on Ukraine continues, with ASPI’s Alex Bristow speaking to Jakub Zajączkowski and Saroj Kumar Aryal from the University of Warsaw. They discuss the EU and US approaches to peace in Ukraine, the security guarantees Ukraine needs, and the links between the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic, including through NATO and the Indo-Pacific Four.

They discuss Poland’s increased interest in the Indo-Pacific, the value of minilaterals such as the Quad, and India’s relationships with Russia, Europe and Quad countries.

Guests:
Alex Bristow
Jakub Zajączkowski
Saroj Kumar Aryal

Stop the World: A new world order? Ukraine’s Ambassador on Russia, the United States and Europe

In this special episode of Stop the World, ASPI’s David Wroe speaks with Ukraine’s Ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, on the morning after US and Russian representatives met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The Ambassador responds to the blizzard of recent developments affecting the prospect of a peace agreement to end Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against its democratic neighbour as we approach the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. He talks about signs of a turning point in the world order, Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO, recent remarks from the Trump administration, a security guarantee for the Ukrainian people, and the grim future the world faces if aggression is allowed to go unchecked.

Guests:

David Wroe

Vasyl Myroshnychenko