Tag Archive for: Alliances

What Donald Trump Can Learn From Allies on Foreign Aid

There are smarter and more effective ways to streamline and re-strategize U.S. foreign aid.

The Trump administration is not the first Western government to envision a stronger, safer, and more prosperous country by integrating foreign aid with strategic objectives. The experiences of America’s Five Eyes partners, particularly Australia and the United Kingdom, offer encouraging evidence for reform, having achieved tightly targeted development programs supporting diplomatic and strategic priorities. They also offer sobering lessons about implementation pitfalls, including the abrupt disruption of established programs, especially those already aligned with strategic policy, loss of critical skills among government personnel, and heightened unease among international partners. 

The logic driving aid integration is compelling. In an era of great power competition, maintaining separate tracks for diplomacy and development is an unaffordable luxury. China has harnessed development, along with trade and financial investment, as an instrument of strategic influence through both soft and hard means. Both Australia and the UK recognized this reality, merging their aid agencies (AusAID and DFID, respectively) into their foreign ministries to create more strategically coherent development policies. Having made clear its intent to fundamentally reshape USAID, the Trump administration has the opportunity to learn from its allies in the pursuit of the American national interest

A Unified Strategy: Australia 

The Australian government integrated the Australian Aid Agency (AusAID) with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in 2013 with the stated goal of better aligning Australia’s development, foreign policy, trade priorities, strategies, and objectives while bringing an enhanced focus on the Indo-Pacific. The integration accompanied a reduction of Australia’s development funding. After reaching a peak of more than AUD $5 billion in 2013–14, or .33 percent of gross national income (GNI), Australia’s development budget has progressively declined, and in 2023–2024 was AUD$4.8 billion, or .29 percent of GNI. This change is also stark in terms of the slice of the Australian budget spent on foreign aid compared to defense expenditures. 

An independent review of the integration in 2019 found that 90 percent of the Australian government’s strategic targets for the integration had been met, driving development allocations towards infrastructure and the Pacific. The review also found “examples of development goals being more strongly advanced through joined-up, whole-of-department efforts.” 

These initial efforts—such as the Pacific Seasonal Worker Scheme and the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific—have since grown to enable more ambitious and innovative integrated development and strategic initiatives. Key among these are the Falepili Union with Tuvalu (which provides Australia with strategic denial rights and Tuvalu with climate resilience monies and opportunities for migration), the agreement between Australia and Papua New Guinea that encompasses development and security elements, and Telstra’s acquisition of Digicel Pacific, the largest mobile provider in the Pacific, with the Australian government’s support amid rumors of interest from China Mobile. While the review stepped carefully around the issue, it found integration had increased Australia’s ability to counter efforts to overshadow Australia’s influence, like China’s Belt and Road and Digital Silk Road initiatives.

However, the review also found several areas of concern. Early morale problems among staff arising from the abrupt way the integration was implemented had largely dissipated by 2019. However, a “pronounced deterioration in skills and systems” remained. The review found that “almost 1000 years of experience left [government service] shortly after integration.” Additionally, “estimates suggest another 1000 years of experience” left the department in the five years before 2019 due to the department underestimating the capability needed to design and deliver development programming. 

This loss of know-how continues to hamper effectiveness over a decade later. While development is now firmly accepted as a tool of statecraft, best wielded as part of a whole-of-government strategy, an article by the review’s author fifteen months ago suggests DFAT still has room to improve in terms of harnessing its development delivery to its full potential.

Strategic Prioritization: The UK

The merger between the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for International Development occurred in 2021. The principal intention behind the merger was to better align the UK’s development activities with its wider diplomatic, trade, and geopolitical interests, both in strategic terms and in terms of in-country representation. The merger coincided with a decision to reduce the UK’s development funding commitment from the .7 percent of GDP enshrined in law to .5 percent of GDP. Notably, the integration occurred while the UK was experiencing the economic slowdown of the COVID-19 Pandemic, which resulted in a double blow to funding in absolute terms, constituting a 30 percent reduction overall.

Alongside the budget reductions, a strategic prioritization of development initiatives was pursued, in which the UK focused on bilateral funding to a smaller group of countries where measurement of effect is often easier to determine, but at the expense of some wider bilateral and multilateral commitments which were deemed to deliver less tangible value to the UK. 

In addition, the UK identified a select set of issues for its development focus, namely, climate investments, girls’ education, and global health—where the UK had demonstrated expertise and where funding would have constructive spillover effects. For example, improving girls’ education is found to reap positive dividends for local security, prosperity, and governance. These initiatives, concentrated in Africa, the Indo-Pacific, and South Asia, are all areas in which the UK’s adversaries were harnessing development as an instrument of influence, dependence, and coercion. 

The UK’s National Audit Office (NAO) review of the progress of the merger in 2024 found positive evidence “of where a more integrated approach has improved the organisation’s ability to respond to international crises and events, which has led to a better result.” 

Two such examples were the UK’s coherent humanitarian, diplomatic, and military response as the leading European power supporting Ukraine after Russia’s invasion and the joint humanitarian and political response to the Ebola crisis in Uganda. The findings supported the rationale for the merger and the modernization of the department as fit-for-purpose in sharpening the UK’s geopolitical interests. However, the NAO also noted that “the indirect costs” of the merger, “in terms of disruption, diverted effort and the impact on staff morale should not be underestimated.” 

The NAO also reviewed the effect of the overseas development aid reduction and found that while the prioritization compelled in the government’s activities had some positive dividends, “the speed and scale of the budget reduction, and the lack of long-term planning certainty, increased some risks to value for money.” 

What Can The U.S. Learn?

These cautionary tales suggest some considerations for the Trump administration:

First, pace matters more than might be immediately apparent. While decisive action has its advantages, too rapid a transformation risks institutional damage that could take years to repair. Recipient partners need to be assured about the value of the relationship, as reputation matters when development partners have the luxury of choice. A phased integration that maintains critical expertise while gradually aligning strategic direction would likely prove more effective in the long term.

Second, capability preservation requires active management. Both Australia and the UK learned the hard way that development expertise isn’t quickly or easily replaced. The technical knowledge required for effective commissioning, procuring, financing, and managing of development programs, while not unique to the aid world, is distinct from traditional diplomatic and geostrategic policy skills. Any American reforms must include concrete plans for retaining and developing each of these specialized capabilities and empowering them to work together to deliver coherent whole-of-government priorities.

Third, funding stability enables strategic coherence and builds influence with partners. The UK’s experience shows that simultaneous organizational and budgetary upheaval can undermine even well-conceived reforms. While efficiency gains are desirable, treating integration primarily as a cost-cutting exercise risks strategic self-harm. With strategic competitors snapping at our heels, such interruptions cannot always be remedied.

Fourth, clear metrics for success must encompass traditional development indicators and strategic effects. Australia’s focus on its immediate neighborhood and Indo-Pacific infrastructure and the UK’s emphasis on areas of demonstrated expertise and reputational value offer useful models for linking foreign aid and development assistance to broader national interests.

The stakes for getting this change right are immense. China has outflanked the West in harnessing foreign aid as a strategic tool of statecraft, having learned from the experiences of Western development agencies. America cannot afford to unilaterally disarm in this arena and sacrifice its many areas of retained advantage through poorly executed reforms.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s framework of strength, safety, and prosperity provides useful guideposts. Development programs should demonstrably enhance American security partnerships, expand trade relationships that benefit American workers, or strengthen allies facing authoritarian pressure. Programs that cannot should be reconsidered.

Achieving these goals requires maintaining America’s development capabilities even as they are more tightly aligned with strategic objectives. The experiences of Australia and the UK suggest this balance is achievable but demands careful attention to ensure areas of national strength and influence are strengthened, not squandered.

Why Japan-Australia alliance needs new strategic edge to do some ‘heavy lifting’

Strategically, Japan and Australia have more in common than just about any two nations – to the extent that we are allies in all but treaty status. Australia wants – and in fact needs – that relationship to get even closer.

Both nations need to be participants in the strategic competition that is firmly under way. We cannot afford to ignore it as something that is the exclusive business of the US and China. And the key foundation for the next stage of our partnership must be technology co-operation because critical technologies are fundamental to that strategic competition.

The relationship was not always on this trajectory. While for many years Japan has been finding ways to manage Beijing’s increasing assertiveness, Australia until around 2017 remained fixated on China as an economic silver bullet, taking us down a path of market concentration, economic dependency and security vulnerability. We found it easier to pursue Japanese whaling than we did Beijing’s cyber attacks, militarisation of the South China Sea or covert influence of domestic and international institutions. But partly in response to China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour across the past decade, Japan and Australia have drawn closer together.

Our shared interests and values and our strong desire to keep the Indo-Pacific free, open and resilient required nothing less. Countries – even strong economies and democracies such as Japan – cannot face and counter economic coercion, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns alone. Hence a new phase of co-operation and partnership is under way.

Both countries have recognised the importance of India and embraced the revitalisation of the Quad grouping. When the US pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it was our two countries that kept it together. And in Tokyo and Canberra there is a recognition that our bilateral relationship should be comprehensive: being about people, economics, security and defence.

We can continue these gains of recent years by working together on the challenge of technology co-operation. Technology sits at the heart of strategic competition in the sense that it is driving unprecedented change to economies, security, individual lives and international relations. The countries – or coalitions of countries – that gain pre-eminence in these technologies and set the international standards for these critical fields will gain an enormous strategic advantage.

Japan is a technologically advanced country that recently has unveiled plans for a 10 trillion yen ($107bn) national endowment fund to boost research and innovation through its top universities. As the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s own research has shown, it performs strongly in some key areas relevant to the AUKUS partnership, including quantum and hypersonics. Our Critical Technology Tracker also shows, however, that China is leading the world in high-impact research in 43 out of 51 technology fields relevant to defence. Beijing’s investment in critical technologies relevant to national security has been of a scale that no individual nation – not even the US – can confidently match it. This is the logic behind the AUKUS partnership. As ASPI’s tracker shows, we can remain competitive if we work together.

AUKUS pillar two – which serves as an accelerator for development of critical capabilities related to hypersonics, AI, quantum and other advanced technologies – has a much greater chance of success if we make it inclusive, not exclusive. We should therefore encourage Japan and others to participate as appropriate.

This is in fact a huge development opportunity: for partnerships, for technology, for capability, for deter­rence and for a more stable and secure world.

The Japanese government has committed to a dramatic increase to its defence spending commitments. But, as with Australia’s own investments, this increase is not about creating instability and increasing the risks of conflict; rather about bolstering deterrence to avoid war and improve regional stability. Stability doesn’t mean an absence of difference or compet­ition. It means living with and managing tension, not thinking it can be ignored.

This is why deterrence is mandatory for stability: it doesn’t prevent differences or competition or even some low-level conflict, but it does help prevent those from escalating into greater conflict or war. Technological superiority and partnerships together make the most potent recipe for deterrence based on strength.

Moreover, authoritarian regimes including Beijing are expertly filling the gap between war and peace with strategically targeted economic coercion, cyber-enabled theft and disinformation and, as we have seen this month, dangerous military intercepts on the seas and in the skies.

Democratic countries have struggled to find adequate responses, especially collective responses. We failed to join forces to increase internet safety and security. And we failed to come together to bake security into social media. This must change as we face the next leap in technology – artificial intelligence, which is shaping up to be a revolution like no other.

Japan’s recent example of leading on economic security as hosts of the G7 set an important example for others to follow in terms of how states can work together on emerging security challenges. We need more global leadership like this and we must encourage the next G7 chair, Italy, to grasp the baton, pursuing an economic security agenda and inviting nations like Australia, South Korea and India.

We can control our destiny or abdicate responsibility and hand it to the control of others who do not have our interests at heart. It’s vital that we continue to build our relationship because a stable balance of power will take effort by all. As regional powers, Australia and Japan are in the prime position to do the heavy lifting.

Tag Archive for: Alliances

Stop the World is back with a pod on the Quad

Stop the World is back from its summer hiatus and, with so many major developments already, there’s much ground to cover in 2025.  

This week, ASPI’s Raji Pillai Rajagopalan speaks to Euan Graham and Griffith University’s Ian Hall about the Quad partnership between Australia, India, Japan and the United States. They discuss the significance of the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Washington DC just days into the new Trump Administration, and the security role of the grouping in the coming years, including how – and whether – the Quad partners are thinking about deterrence.  

Guests:  

Raji Pillai Rajagopalan  
Euan Graham  
Ian Hall  

Urban warfare in Ukraine and Gaza with John Spencer

In this episode of Stop the World, ASPI Senior Analyst Alex Bristow interviews John Spencer, the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast.   

Alex and John discuss urban warfare in the context of the conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, asymmetric capabilities and the impact of technology on warfare. 

They also talk about the laws of armed conflict and the public debate around Israel and Gaza, as well consider prospects for peace in Ukraine.   

Guests:  

Dr Alex Bristow  
John Spencer  

Stop the World: Japan in a blizzard of Indo-Pacific diplomacy with Guiborg Delamotte and Yamagami Shingo

In today’s episode, senior analyst Dr Alex Bristow is joined by Professor Guibourg Delamotte, Professor of Political Science at the Japanese studies department of the French Institute of Oriental Studies and Yamagami Shingo, former Japanese Ambassador to Australia, who is also, among several roles, Senior Fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

They discuss this week’s “blizzard of Indo-Pacific diplomacy”, which has included the Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting in Tokyo, a US-Japan 2+2, an ASEAN meeting in Laos, and a visit by Foreign Minister Penny Wong to several countries in Asia including South Korea, where she made strong remarks about North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia.

They also cover the prospect of Japan’s joining AUKUS Pillar Two, to collaborate on cutting-edge defence technologies.

It’s a fascinating recap on some of this week’s big events with two leading experts on Japan.

By Professor Guibourg Delamotte

Stop the World: Not just another conversation on Russia, with Mark Galeotti

This week on the pod, David Wroe interviews Russia expert Mark Galeotti. Mark is a renowned author of many books, including ‘We Need to Talk About Putin’ and ‘Downfall: Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia’, and host of the podcast ‘In Moscow’s Shadows’.

David asks Mark for an update on Russia’s war on Ukraine, whether time is on Ukraine or Russia’s side, the impacts of the war on Russia domestically and Putin’s hold on power. They also discuss the increase of Russia’s sabotage activities across Europe and the potential impacts of the US elections on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Mark is a true Russia expert and he’s full of insights that you’re unlikely to have heard elsewhere.

Guests:

⁠David Wroe⁠

⁠Mark Galeotti

Stop the World: Japan’s security, partnerships and regional strategic outlook with Narushige Michishita

In this episode of Stop the World, we bring you the penultimate episode in our special series recorded from the sidelines of the ASPI Defence Conference ‘JoiningFORCES’.

This interview is all about Japan and regional security. Dr Euan Graham, Senior ASPI Analyst speaks with Narushige Michishita, professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo and Japan Scholar with the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program. The conversation covers Japan’s perspective on the strategic outlook in the Indo-Pacific, the role of the US-Japan alliance and the evolution of the Australia-Japan relationship. Euan and Michishita also discuss Japan’s major investments in defence, including a promise to increase defence funding by 60 percent, and opportunities to increase regional cooperation on security, including through AUKUS.

Note: This episode was recorded on the sidelines of the conference, so please forgive the less than perfect audio quality.

Guests:

⁠Euan Graham⁠

⁠Narushige Michishita

Stop the World: EU security and strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific

This week on Stop the World, ASPI Senior Analyst Alex Bristow speaks to Niclas Kvarnström, Managing Director for Asia and the Pacific at the European ExternalAction Service, to discuss the European Union’s engagement in and relationship with the Indo-Pacific.

With war in Europe and conflict in the Middle East, they discuss how much capacity the European Union (EU) has to focus on the Indo-Pacific, how Russia’s war on Ukraine has forced a rethink of the EU’s future security, as well as its relationship with China.

And in the episode’s second segment, Alex is joined by William Leben, Expert Associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, to unpack his recent ASPI report ‘Escalation risks in the Indo-Pacific: a review for practitioners’. They discuss the main threats to strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific, how a potential crisis in the region might develop, and whether or not AUKUS will contribute to a balance of power in the region.

Mentioned in this episode:

⁠https://www.aspi.org.au/report/escalation-risks-indo-pacific-review-practitioners#:~:text=The%20outbreak%20of%20war%20in,potential%20miscalculations%20heighten%20the%20risk⁠.

Guests:

Alex Bristow

Niclas Kvarnström

William Leben

Stop the World: Defence innovation and the pathway to Pillar 2 success

This double episode of Stop the World is all about defence innovation.

ASPI’s Director of Defence Strategy and National Security Bec Shrimpton speaks to Anduril’s Vice President of Strategy for Australia and the Asia Pacific Pete Quinn, the Executive Chairman and Chief Executive at Anduril Australia and Asia Pacific David Goodrich, as well as ASPI Visiting Senior Fellow Keirin Joyce.

They discuss the importance of autonomous systems, what role they can play in the Australian Defence Force, and how they can be used to help deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

Later in the episode, ASPI’s Strategic Communications Manager Steph Tiller speaks to Senior Defence Economist and ASPI Senior Fellow George Henneke to unpack his new report ‘AUKUS Pillar 2 critical pathways: a road map to enabling international collaboration’. They discuss the report’s findings and explore the key reforms that Australia should focus on to ensure that Pillar 2 is a success.

Mentioned in this episode:

⁠https://www.aspi.org.au/index.php/report/aukus-pillar-2-critical-pathways-road-map-enabling-international-collaboration⁠

Guests:

Bec Shrimpton

Pete Quinn

David Goodrich

Keirin Joyce

Steph Tiller

George Henneke

Stop the World: Why auld acquaintance should ne’er be forgot

Australia and the United Kingdom have a lot of shared history and values, but not a lot of shared geography. For a long time, that left the strategic relationship feeling a little dusty—a friendship to be taken for granted. But the two countries’ security partnership has a sense of deepening urgency, with the creation of AUKUS, the UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt and the recent signing of a new defence and security cooperation agreement. With Russia’s war against Ukraine and Chinese regional assertiveness, Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security are increasingly seen as tied.

To unpack these developments, ASPI’s Stop the World podcast is devoting today’s episode to the Australia-UK strategic relationship.

ASPI senior analyst Alex Bristow speaks with UK High Commissioner Vicki Treadell and Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy in East Asia at King’s College London. And in the episode’s second session, ASPI senior analyst Euan Graham speaks with Philip Shetler-Jones, senior research fellow in Indo-Pacific security at the Royal United Services Institute.

Guests:

⁠Alex Bristow⁠

⁠Vicki Treadell⁠

⁠Alessio Patalano⁠

⁠Euan Graham⁠

⁠Philip Shetler-Jones⁠

Tag Archive for: Alliances

ASPI and STEPI sign MoU for future cooperation on technology policy

AUKUS Messaging Roundtable

Fireside chat with Pat Conroy and Bec Shrimpton

On 6 December 2023, Bec Shrimpton, ASPI’s Director of Defence Strategy and National Security participated in AMCHAM’s ‘Meet the Minister: Business Luncheon’ featuring the Hon Pat Conroy MP, Minister for Defence Industry and Minister for International Development and the Pacific.

After the Minister delivered his address at the event, Bec and Minister Conroy sat down for a fireside chat. The discussion covered a diverse range of topics including AUKUS, the upcoming Defence Industry Development Strategy and the role of Australian sovereign industry capability within it, how Australian industry can better access Defence grants and contracts, the improvements needed to achieve greater agility, certainty and performance in defence acquisition, as well as defence innovation. The Minister took a range of questions and also discussed Australia’s unique engagement advantages and responsibilities in the Pacific, including the importance of sports diplomacy.

ASPI luncheon briefing with Korean ambassador, His Excellency Mr Kim Wan-joong

ASPI’s Justin Bassi, Afeeya Akhand and Dr Alex Bristow had the pleasure of briefing the Ambassador of the Republic of Korea, His Excellency Mr Kim Wan-joong, on ASPI’s report about the future of the Australia-Republic of Korea partnership. The meeting took place over lunch at the Ambassador’s residence.

Co-authored by Afeeya Akhand and Dr Alex Bristow, the report recommends ways to strengthen cooperation across the Australia-Republic of Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, including in defence, critical technology, clean energy and people-to-people ties.

ASPI also had the opportunity to brief stakeholders from the Embassy of the Republic of Korea, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Department of Defence, National Security College and Korean Institute for Defense Analysis through the report’s pre-launch event at the ASPI office.

The report can be accessed here.

Left to Right: Ms Jung Hyunjung, Ms Afeeya Akhand, His Excellency Mr Kim Wan-joong, Mr Justin Bassi, Mr Jeon Joyoung, Dr Alex Bristow

ASPI DC hosts visit from Speaker of Assembly of Tonga, Lord Fakafānua

On 12th April, ASPI DC hosted a visit with the Speaker of Assembly of Tonga, Lord Fakafānua, retired Ambassador Steven McGann and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Cleo Paskal. During the visit Australia’s strong relationship with Tonga and diplomatic relations in the Pacific were discussed, as well as a shared love for sports diplomacy!

AUKUS Trilateral Initiative

On the 20th and 21st of March, ASPI DC convened with the Center for New American Studies (CNAS) and the Centre for Grand Strategy at Kings College London (KCL) its second trilateral AUKUS Initiative. This Track 1.5 event brought together high-ranking officials and industry representation from across the United States, Australian and UK governments to discuss the AUKUS announcement, and was concluded with a dinner attended by Australian Ambassador to the United States, Kevin Rudd, who gave a speech.

Iain MacGillivray was interviewed by War on the Rocks

On March 14th, ASPI DC Analyst, Iain MacGillivray was interviewed by War on the Rocks on their podcast episode, Australia’s Pathway to Acquire Nuclear Submarines. Iain highlighted the immense opportunity AUKUS Pillar 1 holds for Australia and the US in pursing shared strategic interests, but also drew attention to the challenges of revitalizing Australia’s industrial base and the questions around the US’ capacity to meet their own defense at the current manufacturing rate of SSN’s and availability of skilled workers to grow this capability.

ASPI DC host Western Australian Government Delegation

On March 10th, ASPI DC hosted a delegation led by the Hon. Bill Johnston MLA, Western Australia’s Minister for Mines and Petroleum, Energy, to discuss critical minerals strategy. The discussion was key in highlighting the importance of WA to Australia’s critical mineral supply chains and potential for strong collaboration with US industry and government, and informed thinking around ASPI DC’s broader project on paradiplomacy project.

ASPI DC provide panel at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Centre

On March 7th, ASPI DC Director, Mark Watson, Senior Analyst, Dr Greg Brown and Analyst’s, Bronte Munro and Iain MacGillivray were invited to provide a panel at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Centre.

The panel was on ‘The role of AUKUS and The Quad in the Indo-Pacific Security Architecture’ and was attended both in person and online. The discussion provided an opportunity for the ASPI DC team to discuss Australia’s role within regional security architecture, the opportunities and challenges of AUKUS, and Australia and US alliance collaboration.