Artificial Intelligence, Human-Machine Teaming, and the Future of Intelligence Analysis

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In February, ASPI and the Special Competitive Studies Project held a series of workshops on the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the intelligence sector.

The workshops, which followed a multi-day workshop in Canberra in November 2023, brought together experts from across the Australian and US intelligence communities, think tanks and industry to inform future intelligence approaches in both countries.

The project also focuses on how current and emerging AI capabilities can enhance the quality and timeliness of all-source intelligence analysis and how this new technology may change the nature of the intelligence business.

The aim of the workshops is to develop a prioritised list of recommendations for both the Australian and US intelligence communities on how to adopt AI quickly, safely, and effectively.

You can find out more about the project here.

ASPI’s 2024 Democracy Primer

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On 6 February, ASPI held its first public event for the year, the sold-out ‘2024 Democracy Primer’.

Moderated by ASPI’s Council Chair Gai Brodtmann, the panel discussion featuring Professor John Dryzek, Leena Rikkilä Tamang, Chris Zappone and Dr Alex Caples explored the evolving political trends that are set to define this pivotal year.

More than 2 billion people in over 50 countries, representing nearly a third of the global population, are set to engage in elections this year. It will have geopolitical ramifications with so many countries having the chance to choose new leaders, testing the resilience of democracy and the rules-based order in countless ways.

These elections also come at a time of increasing ambition among powerful authoritarian regimes, growing use of misinformation and disinformation often linked to state-led or state-backed influence operations, rising extremism of various political stripes, and the technological disruption of artificial intelligence.

At the same time, democracies face formidable challenges with wars raging in Europe and the Middle East, increasing climate disasters, weakening economies, and the erosion of confidence in liberal societies.

Watch the panel below as they explore the issues that are set to define 2024’s election campaigns, as well as the impact the outcomes could have on alliances, geopolitics and regional security around the world.

Quad Technology Business and Investment Forum outcomes report

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The Quad has prioritised supporting and guiding investment in critical and emerging technology projects consistent with its intent to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Governments cannot do this alone. Success requires a concerted and coordinated effort between governments, industry, private capital partners and civil society.

To explore opportunities and challenges to this success, the Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group convened the inaugural Quad Technology Business and Investment Forum in Sydney, Australia on 2 December 2022. The forum was supported by the Australian Department of Home Affairs and delivered by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

The forum brought together senior Quad public- and private-sector leaders, laid the foundations for enhanced private–public collaboration and canvassed a range of practical action-oriented initiatives. Sessions were designed to identify the key challenges and opportunities Quad member nations face in developing coordinated strategic, targeted investment into critical and emerging technology.

Attendees of the forum overwhelmingly endorsed the sentiment that, with our governments, industry, investors and civil society working better together, collectively, our countries can lead the world in quantum technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and other critical and emerging technologies.

This report reflects the discussions and key findings from the forum and recommends that the Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group establish an Industry Engagement Sub-Group to develop and deliver a Quad Critical and Emerging Technology Forward Work Plan.

State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity

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As part of a multi-year capacity building project supporting governments in the Indo-Pacific with defending their economic against the risk of cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, ASPI analysed public records to determine the effects, the actual scale, severity and spread of current incidents of cyberespionage affecting and targeting commercial entities.

In 2015, the leaders agreed that ‘no country should conduct or support ICT-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information, with the intent of providing competitive advantages to companies or commercial sectors.’

Our analyses suggests that the threat of state-sponsored economic cyberespionage is more significant than ever, with countries industrialising their cyberespionage efforts to target commercial firms and universities at a grander scale; and more of these targeted industries and universities are based in emerging economies.

“Strategic competition has spilled into the economic and technological domains and states have become more comfortable and capable using offensive cyber capabilities. Our analysis shows that the state practice of economic cyber-espionage appears to have resurged to pre-2015 levels and tripled in raw numbers.”

In this light, we issued a Briefing Note on 15 November 2022 recommending that the G20 members recognise that state-sponsored ICT-enabled theft of IP remains a key concern for international cooperation and encouraging them to reaffirm their commitment made in 2015 to refrain from economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes. 

This latest Policy Brief, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, further suggests that governments should raise awareness by better assessing and sharing information about the impact of IP theft on their nations’ economies in terms of financial costs, jobs and competitiveness. Cybersecurity and intelligence authorities should invest in better understanding the extent of state sponsored economic cyber-espionage on their territories.

On the international front, the G20 and relevant UN committees should continue addressing the issue and emphasising countries’ responsibilities not to allow the attacks to be launched from their territories. 

The G20 should encourage members to reaffirm their 2015 commitments and consider establishing a cross-sectoral working group to develop concrete guidance for the operationalisation and implementation of the 2015 agreement while assessing the scale and impact of cyber-enabled IP theft.

State sponsored economic cyberespionage Briefing note
Defending against cyber IP theft Project flyer

Smart Asian women are the new targets of CCP global online repression

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The Chinese Communist Party has a problem with women of Asian descent who have public platforms, opinions and expertise on China.

In an effort to counter the views and work of these women, the CCP has been busy pivoting its growing information operation capabilities to target women, with a focus on journalists working at major Western media outlets.

Right now, and often going back weeks or months, some of the world’s leading China journalists and human rights activists are on the receiving end of an ongoing, coordinated and large-scale online information campaign. These women are high profile journalists at media outlets including the New Yorker, The Economist, the New York Times, The Guardian, Quartz and others. The most malicious and sophisticated aspects of this information campaign are focused on women of Asian descent.

Based on open-source information, ASPI assesses the inauthentic Twitter accounts behind this operation are likely another iteration of the pro-CCP ‘Spamouflage’ network, which Twitter attributed to the Chinese government in 2019.

China’s messaging on the Ukraine conflict

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In the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, social media posts by Chinese diplomats on US platforms almost exclusively blamed the US, NATO and the West for the conflict. Chinese diplomats amplified Russian disinformation about US biological weapon labs in Ukraine, linking this narrative with conspiracy theories about the origins of COVID-19. Chinese state media mirrored these narratives, as well as replicating the Kremlin’s language describing the invasion as a ‘special military operation’.

ASPI found that China’s diplomatic messaging was distributed in multiple languages, with its framing tailored to different regions. In the early stage of the conflict, tweets about Ukraine by Chinese diplomats performed better than unrelated content, particularly when the content attacked or blamed the West. ASPI’s research suggests that, in terms of its international facing propaganda, the Russia–Ukraine conflict initially offered the party-state’s international-facing propaganda system an opportunity to reassert enduring preoccupations that the Chinese Communist Party perceives as fundamental to its political security.

Artificial intelligence: your questions answered

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This collection of short papers developed by the Australian Institute for Machine Learning (AIML) at the University of Adelaide and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) offers a refreshing primer into the world of artificial intelligence and the opportunities and risks this technology presents to Australia.

AI’s potential role in enhancing Australia’s defence capabilities, strengthening alliances and deterring those who would seek to harm our interests was significantly enhanced as a result of the September 2021 announcement of the AUKUS partnership between the US, the UK and Australia. Perhaps not surprisingly, much public attention on AUKUS has focused on developing a plan ‘identifying the optimal pathway to deliver at least eight nuclear-powered submarines for Australia’.

This AIML/ASPI report is a great starting point for individuals looking to better understand the growing role of AI in our lives. I commend the authors and look forward to the amazing AI developments to come that will, we must all hope, reshape the world for a more peaceful, stable and prosperous future.

University of Adelaide, Australian Institute for Machine Learning - logo

.auCheck: A free website and email security check tool

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Today, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), in collaboration with the .au Domain Administration (auDA), is launching ‘.auCheck‘: a free tool that helps users check their website, email and internet connection for use of the latest and most secure internet standards.

Standards form the technical heart of the internet and are fundamental to the security, reliability and resilience of websites and email communication. As these standards develop over time, it is crucial to remain up-to-date.

Checking if a website and email are set up correctly can be quite difficult; that’s why .auCheck was created. Its aim is to empower users, in particular Australian small businesses, to ask the right questions and choose the right level of services from their providers, including adequate security settings.

.auCheck will enable users to have an informed discussion with their IT support, internet service provider, domain registrar, web hosting company or IT contractor to improve the security standards of their website, email or internet connection and facilitate the adoption of best practice internet standards.

Standards that are checked by the .auCheck tool include:

  • Encryption methods (to ensure the secure transfer of information over the Internet);
  • Ways to authenticate website and mail servers (to ensure internet users are dealing with genuine website and email accounts);
  • Security of domain names (to allow domain names to be verified);
  • Security of website applications (to prevent insertion of malicious code or unauthorised access);
  • Protection against phishing through email from fake accounts.

Following the test, .auCheck offers users advice on additional steps they can take to bring their website and email domains up-to-standard.

Fergus Hanson, Director of ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre, believes .auCheck will be a valuable practical contribution to the work Australian governments, industry and internet organisations are already doing to raise awareness of the need to be cyber secure.

‘We hope .auCheck will give Australian businesses practical advice to improve the security and reliability of their online presence. The tool also empowers every Australian to check for themselves the security of the websites they visit.

‘The idea for .auCheck came from discussions with international partners in the UK and the Netherlands who pioneered similar tools. We’re very grateful to the Dutch Internet Standards Platform and for the support of auDA which allowed us to develop .auCheck in a way that fits the Australian context.‘

auDA CEO Rosemary Sinclair AM said auDA was pleased to support the development of .auCheck, noting the tool will provide Australian small businesses and consumers with information to empower them, boosting their online confidence and uplifting security standards by working with their IT support professionals.

‘auDA research shows cyber security is the top concern among Australian internet users. However, many Australian internet users and small business owners are unsure where to find trusted information and advice on cyber security. The .auCheck tool provides a free, independent and plain language assessment of online security standards, and will help empower users to be more confident managing their cyber security.‘

Over time, the aggregated test results will deliver an understanding of the security standards being used by individuals, businesses and organisations in Australia.

You can access .auCheck here

Understanding Global Disinformation and Information Operations: Insights from ASPI’s new analytic website

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ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre has launched the Understanding Global Disinformation and Information Operations website alongside this companion paper. The site provides a visual breakdown of the publically-available data from state-linked information operations on social media. ASPI’s Information Operations and Disinformation team has analysed each of the data sets in Twitter’s Information Operations archive to provide a longitudinal analysis of how each state’s willingness, capability and intent has evolved over time. Our analysis demonstrates that there is a proliferation of state actors willing to deploy information operations targeting their own domestic populations, as well as those of their adversaries. We find that Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Venezuela are the most prolific perpetrators. By making these complex data sets available in accessible form ASPI is broadening meaningful engagement on the challenge of state actor information operations and disinformation campaigns for policymakers, civil society and the international research community

infoops.org.au

Producing policy-relevant China research and analysis in an era of strategic competition

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This brief report explores the challenge of producing policy-relevant China research and analysis. Policy-relevant research is defined as work that drives action, affects decision-making, or both. It’s the kind of research think tanks seek to do, bridging the gap between academia and civil servants who work on policy.

This paper focuses on two key findings:

  1. There’s a distinction between conducting policy-relevant research and the process of disseminating it in a way that will effectively shape and influence the policy process in particular places by particular policy- and decision-makers. In practice, the difference between the two isn’t always clearly understood and perhaps not clearly taught.
  2. There’s limited training that prepares the China analytical community to deal with the challenges of producing policy-relevant research under conditions of restricted access to China. Researchers require more support in navigating the research environment and filling skill-set gaps.