Nothing Found
Sorry, no posts matched your criteria
Sorry, no posts matched your criteria
Sorry, no posts matched your criteria
Sorry, no posts matched your criteria
When is a war crime not a war crime? When it is committed by a British soldier more than five years ago—or at least that will be the case if the UK parliament passes the Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and Veterans) Bill. The bill has been voted through to the next stage in the House of Commons by a worrying 331 votes to 77.
The government has framed the bill as protecting British heroes in the armed forces against activist lawyers and suggested that criticising it amounts to denigrating the armed forces. That approach has been largely successful in silencing opposition to the bill.
But in recent months, ex-armed forces chiefs and senior legal figures (including the judge advocate general) have spoken out against the proposed legislation, saying that it damages Britain’s reputation as a defender of the international rule of law, papers over the inadequacies of the current system of war crime prosecution, and undermines morale and discipline in the armed forces.
If passed, the bill will create a presumption against prosecuting members of the UK’s armed forces accused of committing war crimes—including inhumane treatment, torture and murder—outside of a narrow, and arbitrary, five-year window. The attorney general will need to grant consent before any prosecution can proceed.
These measures combine to provide a ‘triple lock’ shielding alleged perpetrators from accountability under the UK’s legal system. According to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture, Nils Melzer, this will ‘consolidate the impression of a deliberate policy of impunity’ and further erode ‘the UK’s traditional commitment to fundamental norms of international humanitarian law and human rights law’.
The bill imposes a limitation period on war crimes, which, in itself, is contrary to customary international law. The effect of this provision is that actions that fall under the umbrella term of ‘war crimes’ (only sexual assault is excluded) will be decriminalised in the UK.
Of most concern is the crime of torture, against which an absolute prohibition is firmly enshrined in international law. Not only is this a serious breach of the UN Convention Against Torture and the Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, but it is also inconsistent with the UK’s own laws regarding the prosecution of serious crimes.
The UK, much like other common-law countries such as Australia and Canada, doesn’t impose a statute of limitations on indictable offences such as murder, torture and serious assault. Imposing one standard on the actions of British soldiers overseas and another for the rest of the population is contrary to one of the most fundamental principles of the rule of law: equality before the law.
The UK’s involvement in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ended in 2009 and 2014, respectively, meaning that this bill will grant impunity for anyone accused of war crimes in these conflicts. One commentator has drawn a connection between the reversal of the UK government’s decision to exclude torture (originally drafted as an exception to the proposed law alongside sexual assault) and the continued allegations that the British army used illegal interrogation techniques in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Proponents of the bill say it will stop ‘vexatious’ legal claims being made against British soldiers. While false or unsubstantiated accusations certainly must be addressed in any legal institution, creating a blanket limitation that also blocks prosecutions into legitimate and serious allegations is not the solution.
Vexatious claims happen, yet until now they have been dealt with in the UK’s legal system. If the UK government was sincere in its desire to address these problems, it would recognise that it already has the tools to do so. Instead, the government’s introduction of this bill fits a broader pattern of impunity for and denial of legitimate allegations.
In taking this path, the government has failed to acknowledge that if British soldiers accused of committing war crimes are effectively granted impunity in the UK, they will be more vulnerable to being prosecuted through the International Criminal Court.
The principle of complementarity grants the ICC jurisdiction only where a state proves to be ‘unwilling or unable’ to genuinely investigate and prosecute offences alleged to have been committed by its citizens. This is not a far-fetched prospect; ‘hardly any’ British soldiers, and no senior military or political figures, have been convicted, or even prosecuted, despite compelling evidence of crimes being committed in Afghanistan and Iraq.
In the UK, several investigations and inquiries have been closed at the preliminary stages because the allegations were deemed to be of low to medium severity. However, alternative legal analysis argues that the assessments of severity were inconsistent with international standards in that they considered only the level of physical harm rather than taking a holistic view of the actions to determine if they constituted inhumane treatment.
The UK’s Overseas Operations Bill, as well as the Trump administration’s sanctions against the ICC, are serious blows to the international fight against impunity.
In Australia, New South Wales Supreme Court judge Paul Brereton has spent four years investigating claims that Australian special forces breached the laws of armed conflict while on operations in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2016.
Defence Minister Linda Reynolds said recently that the investigation is nearing its conclusion and warned that Australians would be dismayed by its findings.
When the report is released, the world will be watching how Australia responds.
Books on soldiering can be written from the trenches or the general’s chateau.
The foxhole/barracks category is about the lives and fights of individual soldiers, while the general’s genre sweeps across battles and strategy and the fate of nations.
The former Australian diplomat David Tough has written a fine account of 212 Fijians—200 men and 12 women—who enlisted together in Fiji in November 1961 to serve in the British Army.
Tough tracks the individual careers of the ‘212’, as they became known in Fiji. Then, near the conclusion of his training-to-trenches narrative, he veers to the big picture, writing about Fiji’s first military coups, in 1987, and the involvement of some of the ex-soldiers as either supporters or opponents of the coups.
As an Australian diplomat in Suva from 1989 to 1992—‘the most interesting three years of my working life’—Tough was on the spot as Fiji dealt with the consequences of the 1987 coups. Fiji, then and now, confronts the reality that the military is a powerful organisation that claims a unique right to oversee Fiji’s politics.
In his early weeks in Suva, Tough met the first of many of the 212, quickly realising ‘they were a remarkable group and in 1961 a talented cross section of colonial Fiji’s youth. Almost all of the 212 served the full period of their initial enlistment and about a third of the men extended their service for up to 22 years or more before returning to Fiji, remaining in the UK, or settling elsewhere.’
Tough decided to do a composite biography: 212 soldiers for the Queen: Fijians in the British Army 1961–1997. This mosaic of many individuals stretches from Fiji to Britain, covering service on the fringes of a fading empire—in Borneo during the confrontation with Indonesia, in Northern Ireland, and in the Falkland Islands.
In 1961, the British Army was struggling to get volunteers in the UK after the abolition of national service. Recruiting teams were sent to three colonies: Jamaica, the Seychelles and Fiji.
British racial attitudes bumped into Fiji’s racial problems. The governor of Fiji told the recruiters to get a balance of ‘60% Fijian, 30% Indian and 10% part European’. The racial mix of the 200 men conformed to that formula.
Back in Britain, the thinking was that no unit should ever have more than 2% ‘coloured’ soldiers.
The director of the Women’s Royal Army Corps, Brigadier Dame Jean Rivett-Drake, made a failed attempt to prevent Fijian women from being recruited. She called for more information about the ‘position and status’ of women in the colonies, ‘and in particular their customs with regard to marriage’. The brigadier worried that Fijians would be ‘jet black and woolly-haired’ and would ‘present considerably more problems to us than the coffee coloured Seychellois’.
Three of the 12 women were discharged to marry or return to Fiji within a year of arriving in England, but the remainder served the full six years of their enlistment.
Tough reports that when the recruits reached England, they were bothered as much by cold and the class system as by racism. The winter of 1962–63 was the coldest in a century—the weather was ‘extreme culture shock’. He writes that few of the Fijians ‘recall racist attitudes within the army itself during their service’; barracks banter was that if rations ran short, Fijians could exploit their cannibal heritage and munch on a mate.
The Fijians represented the army at almost every sport possible, although as one journalist noted, ‘they did less well at qualifying for good conduct medals’.
Many of the soldiers returned to Fiji in the mid-1980s. Tough writes that several of the men were ‘ardent supporters’ of the 1987 coups mounted by Colonel Sitiveni Rabuka, while others ‘were equally strong objectors. The divide remains.’
One of the returnees, Sam Pillay, entered parliament at the 1987 election, representing an Indian communal seat in the new coalition government. Pillay was sitting in parliament when Rabuka entered the chamber ‘accompanied by balaclava-clad soldiers brandishing automatic weapons. [Pillay] briefly considered trying to disarm the soldier standing close behind him but quickly realised the foolishness of such thoughts.’
Fiji as ‘coup-coup land’ was born.
The longest serving of the 212, Joe Tuwai, who retired from the British Army in 1997, decried Fiji’s ‘coup mentality’. Tuwai said the model Rabuka established for a Fijian soldier is that ‘one does what one feels is right’ because a coup will be forgiven by a decree waiving charges of mutiny or treason.
Tough puts the mosaic together by structuring the book in two halves: the first nine chapters tell the story of the 212 from 1961 until the 1987 coups, while the next 10 trace individual careers serving as gunners, sappers, signallers or infantry; in the Special Air Service, transport or ordinance skilled trades; or in armour (‘a third class ride in a tank is better than a first class walk in the infantry’).
Individual warrior stories abound. Seven of the Fijians served with the elite SAS, and most of them won medals for bravery or distinguished service. The MBE citation for Fred Marafono, who served 21 years in the SAS, referred to his ‘legendary’ status as a visual tracker and his contribution to anti-terrorist techniques and jungle warfare.
After he left the special forces, Marafono had a second career as a mercenary, so that ‘three months short of Fred’s 69th birthday, an SAS officer involved in rescue operations in Sierra Leone was surprised and delighted when he boarded a Sierra Leone gunship to be greeted by Fred as the door gunner’.
While some of 212 followed the warrior life, others found religion and left the army to become ministers.
Such are the many colours in a mosaic made up of individual soldiers.
In this special podcast, we consider the state of counterterrorism in the UK and Australia.
Sir Paul Stephenson, who was commissioner of London’s Metropolitan Police from 2009 to 2011, gives his views on the situation in the UK and the head of ASPI’s national security and counterterrorism programs, Dr Isaac Kfir, speaks on the Australian perspective.
Theresa May has provided a clear basis for the UK government’s conclusion that former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter were poisoned with Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent developed by Russia. As Prime Minister May has said, Russia has provided no credible explanation in response, but instead has treated the use of a Russian-developed chemical weapon in Europe with disdain.
This is obviously an event that the UK government needs to respond to seriously and proportionately. But it’s bigger than just a UK–Russia dispute, and bigger than an attempted murder investigation. It’s a test of whether it’s becoming acceptable to use one of the most horrific types of weapons—chemical weapons—that humanity has ever produced without there being international consequences for those who use those weapons.
Just over 20 years ago, the Chemical Weapons Convention came into force. It’s hard to get the international community to agree on anything, but 192 states signed and ratified the convention because of the simple, horrific and indiscriminate suffering that chemical weapons inflict on human beings. The signatories agreed that such weapons were too horrific to use.
As the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) says, chemical weapons—think poison arrows, boiling tar and arsenic smoke—have been used as tools of war for thousands of years. The scale of death, destruction and long-term human misery that chemical weapons inflicted during World War I was so graphic, however, that few countries wanted to be the first to use such weapons again. By the end of World War I, chemical weapons had caused some 90,000 deaths and more than one million casualties. The wounded suffered the effects for the rest of their lives.
That’s why enforcement of the Chemical Weapons Convention is so important to all states. The convention had its genesis because of chemical weapons used in war. We’re now seeing chemical weapons used during peace.
Russia is a signatory to the convention. It declared in September 2017 that it had completed the destruction of its 40,000 tonnes of chemical weapons. It didn’t declare Novichok, which we now know that it possessed—despite states being obliged to declare all chemical weapons programs and holdings. The US expressed doubt that Russia had actually complied with its obligations under the convention. This looks to be correct.
Russia is the inventor of the Novichok chemical weapon, as confirmed by one of the program scientists, Vil Mirzanyanov. Sergei Skripal, the target of the Salisbury attack, is a former Russian intelligence agent who worked for the UK. So, as Prime Minister May has said, it seems Russia is the only party with the particular capability used to attack Mr Skripal. And Russia had the only motive for doing so.
The Russian foreign ministry’s denials are implausible. But implausible denials have the Alice in Wonderland effect of protecting Russia from accountability. This is an example of Vladimir Putin’s hybrid warfare, or probably what’s better described as ‘hybrid politics’. He’s willing to use Russian power in transparent ways and trust that responses will be ineffective or require long processes that he can frustrate.
So, what’s to be done?
The initial Russian response to the UK’s request for an explanation has been to deny any knowledge or involvement, and to request more details. Russian spokespeople have also started to provide ‘alternative facts’ about the attack, even speculating that it could have been conducted by UK authorities to discredit Russia.
The predictable result is that the UK is expelling a number of Russians. The Russians will reciprocate. Time will then pass and relations will be resumed. Prime Minister May has also foreshadowed freezing Russian state assets in the UK and passing legislation to allow more UK sanctions on human rights grounds. She has noted the importance of cooperation with partners, singling out France, Germany and the United States. All of that is to the good.
Formal steps can be taken by the UK to request assistance from the OPCW to investigate Russia. The OPCW can conduct ‘challenge inspections’ of Russian facilities it suspects of holding or making the chemical weapon. Russia’s 2017 declaration of compliance with the convention can be challenged based on the new information from the Salisbury attack.
Russia has said it will cooperate with investigations, but insists that the UK provide it with all of the evidence that it has.
Russia will probably continue to declare its willingness to comply while disputing any evidence and obstructing any actual investigation. It has done the same in the investigation into the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17. That shouldn’t stop the UK from using all the investigatory and verification measures in the Chemical Weapons Convention to pursue Russian behaviour. The UK should do so with the vocal support of other convention signatories.
While frustrating and lengthy, these steps are the essential, formal steps needed to reinforce the international prohibition on the use of chemical weapons.
The actions most likely to matter to decision-makers in the Kremlin are those that affect their quality of life as individuals. So, Russia can also be the subject of multilateral and unilateral sanctions.
Given Mr Putin’s tight control over the state security agencies and his strong dislike of betrayal of the Russian homeland, it seems unlikely that a decision to use Novichok abroad would be a decision made anywhere in Russia except in the Kremlin.
Russian elites have benefitted from holding assets abroad. These include real estate in London, New York and Paris. They have bank accounts and stock holdings in UK banks and other Western institutions. Luxury yachts are among the kinds of assets that matter to elites who are part of Kremlin policymaking—notably members of Russia’s National Security Council and close advisers to President Putin.
Preventing Russian leadership figures from enjoying the benefits of assets held overseas will matter in a way that stern reprimands and reciprocal expulsions of diplomats and spies won’t. Sanctions can prevent the same people from travelling.
So, it’s not enough to leave action to the UK government when what’s at stake is the normalisation of the use of chemical weapons. Every government that’s a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention, including Australia, has a role in promoting and taking action. Australia has additional interests as a close partner of the UK.
Let’s see our government take the steps necessary–including cooperation with our partners on sanctions–to help prevent chemical weapon attacks from becoming business as usual.
In the past 15 years, I’ve had the privilege to stand shoulder to shoulder with Australian soldiers in a maelstrom of combat through Africa, Iraq and Afghanistan. Invariably my ADF colleagues have been brave, highly professional and, of course, brilliantly mischievous.
When I became the UK’s Defence Adviser earlier this year, I was therefore not surprised to find that our broader military relationship remains just as close. Not only do our two countries exchange more than a hundred service personnel, we enjoy a vibrant and enduring two-way training and exercise program. It covers every area of defence and wider security, including conventional forces, cyber, intelligence, science, technology and innovation.
That military friendship and professional camaraderie is underpinned by a close political relationship, best exemplified by the annual ministerial dialogue between our foreign affairs and defence ministers.
Cementing all of these person-to-person links are a raft of formal agreements, memoranda of understanding and an overarching bilateral defence security and cooperation treaty, signed in Perth in 2013.
We are two of the world’s most advanced defence forces, with deep historical links, shared common values, interoperable equipment, intertwined doctrine, recent operational experience and an almost identical sense of humour.
Discussions about Australia’s future frigate program have dominated my time as Defence Adviser. As an army officer of nearly 30 years’ experience, I have little expertise in the complex and secret world of anti-submarine warfare. I listen with unbridled respect as technical officers explain to me the science of active and passive sonar, multispectral sonar buoy fields, cavitation rates and a plethora of other capabilities that align to deliver the ability to fight and win under water.
I may be new to this world, but I know, beyond any doubt, the difference between fighting with great equipment and fighting with equipment that’s suboptimal.
During two years in southern Iraq, I operated from the army’s notorious ‘Snatch’ vehicles. I saw them repeatedly shredded by Jaysh al-Mahdi’s brutally effective, explosively formed projectiles. In ‘capability’ terms, we were overmatched. Soldiers under my command paid the ultimate price.
Conversely, in Afghanistan I spent six months deep in Taliban-held country, operating from some of the best-protected vehicles in the world. Twenty-six times vehicles in my battle group were struck by enemy improvised explosive devices, some gargantuan in scale. Not one of my troops was killed in those attacks.
From this experience, and dozens of similar examples, I’ve learned the unequivocal lesson that great equipment saves lives.
In discussions in Canberra, ‘capability’ often appears as a buzzword in the ethereal worlds of policy, procurement and politics. Around the clock, brilliant officers, officials and politicians work the near-impossible task of balancing competing priorities to deliver the ADF new equipment. For the soldiers, sailors and aircrew who have to face the violent challenges of combat, ‘capability’ is their last line of defence; it saves lives. All considerations in procurement are vitally important, but in the binary, visceral arena of warfare, having the second-best capability is terminal. And if Australian troops lose, every other consideration becomes secondary.
Seared into my teenage memory is the grainy television news of the Falklands campaign. Night after night I watched the harrowing footage of British ships being sunk. One by one, HMS Sheffield, Ardent, Antelope, Coventry, the Atlantic Conveyor and the Sir Galahad were enveloped by the cold waters of the South Atlantic Ocean. The results of that conflict have been obvious through my career; instinctively, the Royal Navy has understood the value of the very best capability. They will do everything to safeguard their sailors. Despite the competing challenges of humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and defence engagement, they understand that the primary purpose of their ships is to fight, prevail and win. Probably as well as any navy in the world, they understand the value of ‘capability’.
As the Royal Australian Navy sails into contested waters, in deeply uncertain times, I reflect on the words of an erudite historian who lectured me at our Joint Staff College: ‘There is one immutable truth we cannot prevent; war is coming, we just don’t know when or where.’ I hope he was wrong, but I doubt it.
If, or when, my good friends in the ADF face the next storm of conflict, I hope and pray they have the very best ‘capability’ available.
On 22 March 2017 a disturbing terror attack occurred around the UK Parliament in London. It was a day the country had been anticipating for some time. More than 13 separate plots against the UK had been foiled since 2013, but it was only a matter of time before something got through. It constituted only the third successful jihadist attack on the UK homeland in over 20 years since the birth of al-Qaeda and its associates. The total death toll in the United Kingdom, even including this attack, remains under 65. Political leaders and the security services were quick to try to keep this latest incident in perspective within the mind of the public.
During 2016, the UK lived in a Europe that was increasingly troubled by attacks, and by threats, from jihadist terror groups. Of the 43 states that the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office listed as running the highest risk of terrorist activity, the European group consisted of France, Belgium, Germany, Spain and the UK. Successful jihadist attacks across France, Belgium and Germany in 2015 and 2016 seemed to herald a new wave of terrorism in Europe driven largely by the wars in Syria and Iraq and the rise of the Islamic State (IS).
Nevertheless, the UK didn’t suffer any direct attacks from jihadist terrorists in 2016 and didn’t raise its national threat level, which remained at ‘severe’, where it has stood for the past two years. This reflects both the strengths and the vulnerabilities of the UK’s position as a prime target of international terrorism. On the one hand, the fact that no successful jihadist attacks occurred indicates the evident success, good fortune, or both, of the security services in the UK. Leaving aside the March 2017 attack, only two jihadist attacks have been successful in the UK between 2001 and 2016: the July 2005 attacks on the London underground and a bus; and the murder of soldier Lee Rigby outside his London barracks in 2013.
Those two cases have to be set against at least 50 credible and advanced plots in the past 15 years, in addition to several times that number of incidents that may be classed as ‘disruptions’ of ongoing terrorist plots. The mercifully low casualty toll however does not reflect the other side of the story—the increasing potential for jihadist terror attacks on the UK in the current climate. The pattern of terrorism has been changing since 2015 with fewer attacks but growing lethality within Western states, particularly in Europe. Within the UK’s security services there is an acute awareness of a potential wave of terrorism building against the country, although the wave has yet to break against the UK in successful attacks
The UK CT authorities have a strong tradition of operational planning and coordination going well back before 9/11 with a generation of experience in Northern Ireland on which to draw. The UK security services ramped up their CT efforts again after the London attacks of 2005, and have since successfully disrupted ten bombing attempts. The intelligence services and GCHQ have also been retasked over the past 15 years to make terrorist groups a major target of their activities and the police are also undertaking more CT activity than ever before.
The fact is that there is evidence from intercepted IS files and the testimony from those in custody that the UK may have achieved some degree of ‘deterrence by denial’ in the thinking of terrorist leaders. At least in relative terms, the UK is a more difficult target for a terrorist group than most other European states, and intercommunity relations, certainly in France and Belgium, are more conducive to a terror-friendly environment than in the UK.
UK authorities now confront the future with a sense of vigilant resolve, as was revealed in responses to the March 2017 attack on Parliament. The greatest uncertainty ahead in 2017-18 is the practical effect of the Brexit vote on allied cooperation in CT. On the face of it, CT cooperation between European security services and police forces should be the easiest element of the Brexit tapestry to replicate once the UK leaves the EU. It is clearly in the interests of all the agencies across Europe that this should be the case, and the nature of the terrorist challenge makes it imperative. There have been many statements to confirm this fact. The UK has some 5,500 people working on digital access to intelligence—more than twice the number in France and five times the number in Germany.
The UK’s allies have a lot to lose if intelligence cooperation is harmed by the Brexit negotiations, but new arrangements will nevertheless have to be worked out for the UK’s relations with Europol and its access and contributions to common databases. The Shengen System III arrangements, to which the UK will want access, need to include information exchange arrangements and the facility to exchange operational data such as DNA, fingerprint and vehicle registration details. Political statements aside, association agreements will have to be concluded but are as yet uncertain. More than that, as Europol further develops, a UK voice in its evolution, the way it handles its data access and its common protocols, will either not be heard or else will be inserted at a later stage in policy development.
As the anticipated terrorist wave breaks against Western societies throughout the world, the UK is relatively well placed to cope, and there’s a high degree of public acceptance in Britain that terrorists will be successful from time to time. But anything that makes the UK’s coordination with other partners more difficult than it otherwise need be, such as the sheer distraction of the Brexit negotiations, and still more any distancing of the UK from Europol, can’t be other than a further challenge for the security services and the police.
Countering violent extremism is a core element of the Australian government’s counterterrorism strategy. It’s a complex policy issue, with community-level disruption activities running the risk of infringing on civil liberties. The British government’s experience in protecting its public from the pernicious threat of terrorism, while upholding democratic and human rights, has proved challenging, and has received much criticism, and so holds some useful lessons for Australia. There are four areas that have proven problematic: defining extremism, lack of clarity around CVE program efficacy and impact, duty guidance training, and improving government-community relations.
The UK currently defines extremism as ‘vocal or active opposition to fundamental British values.’ Unlike Australia’s definition, this includes non-violent extremism, controversially linking violence with religious conservatism, which assumes a trajectory of escalation toward violent jihadism. That contentious narrative has been exacerbated by the UK government’s proposed ‘Counter-extremism and Safeguarding Bill’. If implemented, this legislation risks infringing on civil liberties, notably through legislating an expansion of incarceration criteria into the pre-criminal space, effectively criminalising those who possess dogmatic and bigoted thoughts and ideas. That’s a flawed strategy that might inadvertently worsen the problem of extremism, and could provoke a backlash in affected communities, further alienating those whose integration into British society is already fragile. Silencing those whose views we don’t find palatable risks sending extremist organisations underground, thereby providing a more lethal environment for violent extremism to flourish out of sight. Encouraging dialogues and critical debate is likely to be more productive.
Second, there’s no clear consensus on the aims of current CVE efforts, and how they’ll achieve those goals. At present, CVE programs generally pursue the twin goals of disengagement and de-radicalisation, often without distinguishing between them. Conflating these processes adds to the confusion in identifying the target audience as well as program aims and objectives, thus undermining their success. The UK’s flagship CVE program Prevent clearly specifies the differences, but program implementation on the ground often suffers due to poor training.
Although there’s been considerable effort to tackle the challenges posed from violent extremist content online, it’s not clear how successful it has been. The British government invested £17m into the Research Intelligence and Communications Unit in 2015-2016 to create online counter-narrative campaigns. While the outreach of those products increased five-fold in 2015, the impact is yet to be measured. Without evidence-based evaluation or assessments of CVE products, we simply don’t know whether they’re worth the effort. There needs to be more clarity over what exactly different CVE programs are trying to achieve and how they’ll measure success.
CVE training programs in the UK are wholly inadequate. Following the 2015 ruling to place mandatory duty on teachers to monitor children for radicalisation, almost 4,000 children were referred to Prevent’s discreet multi-agency ‘Channel Program’ that year, up from 1,681 in 2014. Of these, only several hundred cases required further support, highlighting a discrepancy between policy and practice. Panel members responsible for determining the suitability of a Channel case are considered experts after just completing an e-learning course accompanied by a 1.5 hour lecture. In light of Malcolm Turnbull’s recent support for access to mental health records to clamp down on signs of radical behaviour, counsellors need to be adequately briefed and trained before reporting patients.
The aim of rooting out extremism through early intervention shouldn’t be contentious, but misinterpretation of referral guidelines underlines the need for drastic improvements in practitioner training. For instance, a child was reported for drawing an alleged improvised explosive device ‘cooker bomb,’ which was, in fact, a cucumber. Failing to equip teachers and other professionals with robust skills only undermines the legitimacy of programs.
Without the support of communities, government efforts to tackle extremism have been, and will continue to be, ineffective. Widespread lack of public confidence and perceived suspicions about government intentions highlights the need for an independent review, an idea welcomed by the UK’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation. We need to know what works and what doesn’t before new legislation is created. Moves to diversify the Prevent advisory board—replacing ministers with members of civil society—might help restore public confidence in the Strategy.
Within communities, governments have to work hard to repair damaged relationships through careful trust-building initiatives. Reconstructing government approaches to CVE education, training and social integration in order to equip citizens, young and old, to critically assess and deconstruct extremist arguments in all forms would be a good place to start. Additionally, maintaining a good degree of transparency over funding, design and implementation is vital to garner trust. Previous efforts have been interpreted by communities as covert government agenda-pushing, which has a counter-productive effect.
Refining terms and definitions to clarify the intention of CVE programs is essential, and a thorough evaluation of CVE programs, including developing metrics for success, will enable better assessment of CVE effectiveness. As both countries grapple with a common and shared challenge of preventing violent extremism, the Australian government should welcome this proposed evaluation of current CVE practice in the UK, in order to learn from Britain’s hard lessons and to inform a more robust, evidence-based strategy for Australia.
Are modern-day frigates really cruisers, or is it just that the present-day needs of a frigate require the 6,000-plus tonnage of an old-fashioned cruiser? Alastair Cooper exchanged a polite broadside with ASPI’s Andrew Davies on the topic in April, arguing that form follows function: regardless of tonnage, frigates aren’t designed to ‘take a command [of a force of ships] in a least one warfare discipline‘. Frigates will stay frigates, no matter how big they get.
This isn’t an arcane topic, especially as the topmasts of Australia’s own SEA 5000 frigate appear over the procurement horizon. That’s because the pace of evolution in naval capability is accelerating, with unmanned vehicles, modularity, new systems architectures, and adaptable weapons creating a highly fluid relationship between a naval vessel type and the tasks it can theoretically perform.
To see how naval architects are navigating these uncertain waters, it’s worth surveying some of the design principles behind the UK’s Type 26 Global Combat Ship (GSC). This isn’t just because it’s one of the three contenders for SEA 5000, but also because it’s the last to leave the drawing board—or at least the 3-D CAD studio.
Two aspects of the Type 26 stand out immediately. First, it has a large, multi-purpose mission bay forward of the aircraft hangar; at approximately 385m3, it’s the equivalent volume of ten 20-foot shipping containers. Secondly, the vessels have a ‘shared infrastructure’ approach to combat systems. Both these design features are definite breaks in the path of frigate evolution. They also support Davies’ thesis that frigates are evolving into cruisers ‘in form as well as function’—albeit in a curious way.
The mission bay allows the frigate to assume far more advanced roles than those to which a traditional escort could aspire. For example, Cooper correctly points out that a traditional frigate couldn’t properly perform the command function required by a large task force. But a palletised command and control centre lifted on board results in a vessel that can command highly complex, multi-vessel or amphibious operations.
Similarly with unmanned vehicles (UVs). Type 26 designers envisage that unmanned submarine, surface and air vehicle systems will operate from the mission bay, with a deck-mounted crane to launch and retrieve 12-tonne vehicles from the sea. Since the bay includes network interfaces, self-contained UV systems can be plugged straight into the ships power and command networks. Designers envisage aircraft being launched from the mission bay’s side-door openings.
The point here isn’t detail of the Type 26 design, but the fact that frigate designers are deliberately creating vessels that can supplement their primary role with advanced, fleet-managing capabilities in a way never envisaged before. As long as the capability can be modularised, flown into position and placed on a quay, the vessel can take on the independent, specialised or fleet-leading roles—in short, the roles historically associated with cruisers.
The second Type 26 feature of note is its systems architecture. It’s often said that cars are becoming computers on wheels, and warships aren’t exactly wallowing in their wake. Until now, most naval systems have been discreet physical entities. From a sensor on the mast, to a display in the operations room, a naval system used its own dedicated hardware, software and wiring.
The Type 26 designers have shifted to a shared infrastructure model, so servers, networks and consoles are independent of specific naval systems. Data from new sensors can be incorporated into the operations room with little of the physical and technical disruption required by the back-fitting of consoles, networks and hardware. In practical terms, it means freedom and flexibility in how tactical information is disseminated and worked with by the crew.
It’s probably because the Type 26 has morphed into an ‘adaptive cruiser’ role that the Royal Navy has—after a decade of agonising—split its frigate purchase between eight Type 26s, and an indefinite number of smaller general purpose frigates (GPFFs). On that count alone, the Type 26 deserves a nomenclatural promotion, especially when you review the impressive radar, missile and gunnery specs of GPFF contenders.
The ability for major fleet units to quickly adapt to different roles creates fascinating opportunities. It also poses challenges, as Australian Defence planners ponder the construction of up to 20 new offshore combatant vessels (OCVs) of up to 2,000 tonnes each. A rigid, form-follows-function philosophy in naval design will lead to a fleet of vessels that are hopelessly ill-equipped to adapt, and can’t adopt innovative modes of combat.
Technologically, we live in exciting times. If, instead of working backwards from function to hull form, Defence can work forward from hull form to potential capabilities, then the way is clear for rich and original thought in Australia’s naval program.
In the first part of this post, I stressed how the ADF currently lags well behind other Western militaries in recognising the urgency of addressing climate change and security.
In a recent Climate Council report of which I was a co-author, ‘Be Prepared: Climate Change, Security and Australia’s Defence Force‘ we noted that climate change presents two types of risk to the ADF: capability risks and geostrategic risks.
On capability risks, we see the potential for coastal flooding and heatwaves to disable military infrastructure and thus undermine defence preparedness and readiness as well as undermining defence sustainment, perhaps through the effect of extreme heat on the health of our troops.
These effects can be ameliorated through sound forward planning. We also have a totally fossil fuel-based defence force which means that energy security measures, through efficiency and storage measures, should become ‘business-as-usual’ for our military.
With the addition of new, capable platforms to the force structure such as the Canberra Class ships, we have enhanced our platform capability for undertaking humanitarian assistance and disaster recovery (HADR) missions. But this kind of work is also manpower-intensive as our deployed forces often have to deal with traumatised victims of natural disasters.
When we look at the ADF, the personnel ceiling of which was set at about 55,000 full-timers in 1992, we may ask whether we have sufficient personnel in the present force. By my estimates on the same basis that we arrived at 55,000 in 1992, we should have 78,000 in the force this year and by 2040, 130,000 personnel in the ADF.
As growth in the Asia Pacific region reaches towards 7 billion people and the Australian population heads towards 40 million, we may see the effects of all these risks and vulnerabilities placing serious limitations on defence force assistance to the civil community (DACC) tasks in Australia and our ability to help in HADR tasks in our region.
Turning to geostrategic risks, we may also fail to provide the kind of leadership other countries in our region expect.
In the report we deliver a comparative analysis of the military actions taken in Australia, the US and the UK (table below, also available on p66). This table summary shows that on three counts we are up there with these allies. But, there are nine other areas where we’ve done nothing like our allies as far as we can find, and on another six counts we estimate that the ADF has taken limited action on key issues.
Leadership in both the US and UK has driven their military forces to take action to integrate the potential disruptions from climate change into core defence planning processes. In both countries it was the lawmakers who spearheaded the charge.
For example, we know that US Pacific Command sees rising sea-levels to be a significant threat to people in geographically vulnerable locations.
The integration of climate-related risks management into planning processes has led to a range of specific measures designed to facilitate early responses to disaster situations and provide US leadership throughout the region as well as capturing lessons learned into a comprehensive data base.
In New Zealand, a progressive NZDF took on these issues as core planning drivers as early as 2011.
The Australian Defence Force should try to catch up to our friends and allies. This will take political leadership as well as strong commitment from our senior officers. There’s much at stake for our reputation in our region and in the Australian community.
I read David Connery’s recent Strategist contribution, ‘Adding to the picture: The UK’s serious and organised crime threat assessment’, with much interest. David made some excellent points in relation to the post prosecution management of recidivist organised crime offenders. The National Crime Agency, and its predecessor the Serious and Organised Crime Agency, has for many years pioneered a range of organised crime intervention strategies.
I found David’s comparison of the Australian Crime Commission and NCA’s reporting approaches of particular interest. In making his comparisons, David doesn’t appear to have taken into account the substantive differences between the roles of the ACC and NCA, nor the purposes of their respective reports.
To understand the purpose of the UK’s serious and organised crime threat assessment, it’s crucial that the role that the NCA plays within the United Kingdom’s National Intelligence Model (UKNIM) is considered. The UKNIM is a national law enforcement business model based on intelligence-led policing theories. More specifically, it’s a multi-tiered system that’s focused on information collection and enforcement prioritisation across all of the UK’s police forces.
The UKNIM provides policy and strategy decisionmakers with an understanding of their operating environment so that they can identify, endorse and disseminate priorities to all UK law enforcement and regulatory agencies.
As illustrated in the following diagram the NCA’s report is designed to provide senior decisionmakers with a macro understanding of criminal threats and markets. With this understanding, the NCA—and its clients—make strategic decisions on organisational and target priorities in the form of strategic intent. This is translated into operational priorities through the UKNIM’s structured meetings between law enforcement agencies and organisations.
In contrast, the ACC’s organisational framework is focussed on organised crime as a national problem; a problem that’s a threat to Australia’s human security.
In practice the ACC seeks to gain an understanding of Australia’s criminal environment from a Commonwealth perspective. National risks and threats are viewed in practice through a Commonwealth lens focussed on combating multi-jurisdictional organised crime—as opposed to organised crime more generally.
With a Commonwealth lens the national organised crime risk and threat is an aggregation of issues from multiple state and territory perspectives, as well as the federal jurisdiction.
Unlike the NCA, there’s no formal link between the ACC’s national assessment and task prioritisation or resource allocation of the wider Australian law enforcement community. This is due mostly to Australia’s federated approach to law enforcement.
In this federated approach, the Australian Federal Police, ACC and their state and territory partners all operate rigorous case categorisation and prioritisation models. These models are informed by a range of factors including harm assessments.
When it comes to organised crime it’s easy to adopt a militarised ‘war on organised crime’ perspective that’s focussed primarily on threat assessments. But this threat approach often requires intelligence, threat and risk analysts to over-generalise in their assessments to achieve a workable degree of granularity in prioritisation.
I believe that the organised crime challenge is amorphous in nature. And adversarial models that generalise the problem prevent the development of evidence based disruption or harm reduction.
Organised crime responses to law enforcement disruptions in Australia’s illicit drug markets illustrate this point. When law enforcement disrupt organised crime syndicates, a gap in the global supply chain is created. In the Australian context, despite record seizures and arrests, illicit drugs remain readily available in the Australian market. This reveals the ability of organised crime groups to rapidly occupy gaps in the supply chain.
I wouldn’t like to see a threat assessment or ACC organised crime report that prioritises threats. It would be better to see future assessments focussing on providing assessments of harms that augment the threat perspective. In this context harm refers to the negative outcomes to human security generated by the activities of organised crime groups. It would then be possible to design strategic interventions focussed on harm reduction as an outcome as opposed to regulation and enforcement.
Secondly, assessments that are focussed on understanding the value chains of illicit markets place greater emphasis on strategic interventions that have longer-term disruptive impacts.
In 2008 the AFP and Cambodian National Police proved the effectiveness of both of these approaches. At the time the global production of MDMA was exploding. The key precursor for the production of MDMA is safrole oil. Through strategically focussed disruption operations the AFP and CNP were able to seize and destroy enough safrole oil to produce some 245 million MDMA tablets.
The seizures subsequently created a global shortage of safrole oil. This shortage directly contributed to a global decline in the production of MDMA that would last for almost five years. The operation did not result in any arrests or seizures within Australia but significantly reduced the harm to Australian communities created by MDMA.