Tag Archive for: Syria

Foreign fighters in Syria and the challenges of reintegration

Last week I suggested that Australia takes two steps with regard to those Australians fighting in the Syrian conflict, who’ve been trained by extremist groups and gained battlefield experience.

First, our government should release a comprehensive statement outlining its position on the Syrian foreign fighter issue. There’s no one place for people to find out exactly what Australia’s approach is— what the applicable laws are, the government’s reasons for being concerned about Australian involvement in the conflict, what the government’s strategy is, and what people can do if they have concerns.

Secondly, to get the message through we should have a national awareness campaign about the dangers of citizens travelling to Syria. It should be led by the police working with relevant community-based organisations. Read more

Syria: a fractured opposition and Australian consequences

A Syrian flag flutters outside a militar

Over the past two years, a significant number of Australians have become involved with armed opposition groups in Syria. Some (see here and here) have joined two jihadist organisations proscribed under Australia’s counter terrorism legislation, Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which make up a small but prominent element of the Syrian rebellion.

This involvement has occurred despite Australian government counter-measures that include criminal charges, passport confiscations, bank account restrictions and coercive questioning, as well as public messaging (PDF) and community engagement initiatives.

The situation within Syria is changing rapidly, with open conflict breaking out between the competing opposition groups. What impact will the fratricide among those groups have on the involvement of Australians in the Syrian conflict? Read more

ASPI suggests

Poppies

With the centenary of the commencement of WWI looming, many in the blogosphere have been looking for good history books to read. Historian Margaret MacMillan has a Brookings essay entitled ‘The Rhyme of History: lessons of the Great War’ (including short interviews with the author). For a more detailed narrative of Europe in the years leading to the war, there’s also MacMillan’s new book, The War that Ended Peace: the road to 1914. The NY Times rated Christopher Clark’s The Sleepwalkers: how Europe went to war in 1914 one of its ten best books of 2013. For fans of beautiful writing, there’s always Barbara W. Tuchman’s The Guns of August. And over the next four years we should heed Hew Strachan’s admonition to do more than remember.

Earlier in the week, Rosa Brooks asked on Foreign Policy, has the nature of ‘war’ changed since the days of Clausewitz? She says:

Take cyberwar: much of what is often spoken of under the “cyberwar” rubric is not violent in the Clausewitzian sense of the word. Cyberattacks might shut down the New York Stock Exchange and cause untold financial damage, for instance, but would we say that this makes them violent? Or, say cyberattacks shut down the electrical grid for several major cities, and as a result of the loss of power, a few hundred hospital patients on ventilators die. I’m still doubtful that most of us would call this violence in the usual sense of the word.

Sticking with the changing nature of warfare, why is the Syrian opposition disappearing from Facebook?

This week the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) launched Military Balance 2014, IISS’ annual assessment of military capabilities and defence economics worldwide. See here for key summaries on defence spending (infographic below, click to enlarge. Source: IISS), and here for global developments. Another observation from that volume is that drone usage has increased as the costs of acquiring them fall.

Top 15 Defence budgets

A few weeks ago, The National Interest brought you ‘The five best submarines of all time’. This week, here’s their five worst. This follows their five worst fighter aircraft list—which we mention more for completeness rather than recommending it. You can see what The Strategist‘s exec editor thought of it here.

Speaking of technology, here’s footage of Britain’s new unmanned drone, ‘Taranis’, flying in the Australian desert.

US Special Operations Commander, Admiral William McRaven, delivered an impassioned speech in January at West Point of a sailor’s perspective of the US Army. He said:

I learned that taking care of soldiers is not about coddling them.  It is about challenging them.  Establishing a standard of excellence and holding them accountable for reaching it.  I learned that good officers lead from the front.  I can’t count the times that I saw Petraeus, without body armor, walking the streets of Mosul, Baghdad or Ramadi, to share the dangers with his men and to show the enemy he wasn’t afraid.

Lastly, on a lighter note, the Swedish Marines we listed last week have some competition from the Royal Dragoons—or do they? The editorial team think that neither of them can oust the US Army from #1: Lazy Ramadi remains the benchmark.

Events

The Australian Defence Force has teamed up with the Sydney Theatre Company to create The Long Way Home, a theatre production that explores the experiences of ADF personnel on operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and East Timor. Servicemen and women perform alongside professional actors as part of a broader rehabilitation program. The season commences on tonight in Sydney, and runs in major capital cities until mid-April. Details here.

Natalie Sambhi is an analyst at ASPI and editor of The Strategist. Image courtesy Flickr user cwasteson.

The impact of Syria alumni on Indonesian jihadism

Syrian fighters

The past year has seen extensive media coverage of Australians fighting with Syrian jihadist groups. Less noticed, however, has been the case of Indonesians fighting overseas.

Indonesian Islamist organisations have been closely monitoring the Syrian civil war since mid-2012, raising funds and dispatching teams of medical volunteers. But some have also travelled for combat, with counter-terrorism officials estimating there are around 50 Indonesians fighting in the conflict. In November 2013, the first Indonesian ‘martyr’ in Syria was announced after a man named Reza Fardi was killed in battle. He was a graduate of Ngruki, the boarding school founded by Abu Bakar Bashir, the former leader of Jama’ah Islamiyah (JI) and current head of Jama’ah Ansharut Tauhid.

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Syria: thinking twice

President Barack Obama meets with then Prime Minister Vladimir PutinPresident Barack Obama’s 10 September address to the American people about Syria continues to send confused messages about the administration’s plans. Obama reasserts his authority to authorise a strike following the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons on 21 August, but he persists in asking an unwilling Congress for support before he acts. He points to the risks of the US doing nothing:

If we fail to act the Assad regime will see no reason to stop using chemical weapons. As the ban against these weapons erodes, other tyrants will have no reason to think twice about acquiring poison gas and using them. Over time, our troops would again face the prospect of chemical warfare on the battlefield, and it could be easier for terrorist organizations to obtain these weapons and to use them to attack civilians. Read more

Obama, Syria, and the use of force

President Barack Obama meets with Members of Congress to discuss Syria in the Cabinet Room of the White House, Sept. 3, 2013. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

President Obama’s decision to seek Congressional approval for a limited US attack on Syria has temporarily put on hold one of the most vexing decisions of his presidency. So far, Obama has said merely that he believes the US should attack Syria—not that it will. He’s said that an attack would be limited in duration and scope, isn’t time-critical, and can be carried out at a time of US choosing. And he has stated that the purpose of an attack would be threefold—to hold the Syrian regime accountable, to deter future chemical weapons use, and to degrade Syrian chemical weapon capabilities. He has also, correctly, cast the decision as one shaped by considerations much broader than the Syrian conflict itself. Those considerations involve the strength of global prohibitions on chemical weapons use as well as US willingness to enforce its own self-determined red lines in relation to weapons of mass destruction. That last one’s an issue that plays globally for the US, not just in the Middle East.

Recently I’ve been trying to revisit a piece of work I did a few years back at ASPI, namely an exploration of Obama’s strategic thinking by an analysis of his speeches and remarks. That report, Obama in his own words, examined his view on US primacy, leadership and the use of force. As his second term is now well underway, it seemed to me timely to repeat the exercise just to see what had changed. At the big-picture level, there’s one particular difference between Obama Marks I and II. In 2009 Obama was a character of loftier ambitions—carefully reasoned ambitions, perhaps, but lofty ones. Remember his Prague speech on nuclear disarmament or his speech to the Arab world in Cairo? Obama in 2013 gives fewer of those speeches. True, the Brandenburg speech was a lecture about the dangers of complacency, and an injunction to make history rather than just study it. But at its core, it turned upon a set of objectives that were specific and limited rather than open-ended and grandiose. Read more

Cyber wrap

In an attack linked to pro-Syrian government supporters, the sites of The New York Times, Twitter and up to ten other sites were compromised by the Syrian Electronic Army (SEA). Using stolen log-in credentials from Australian IT company hosting the domain names of the affected sites, the SEA is said to have effectively ‘walked through the front door’ of the websites. The subsequently rerouted traffic to SEA websites and attacked Twitter’s twimg.com domain, used to store image data and styling code. The Pentagon is reportedly preparing for a wave of retaliatory cyber attacks against US targets in the event of any US action against the al-Assad government. While the SEA remains a concern in Washington, Syria’s allies in the form of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and their state backed hackers, pose a much greater concern to officials. Read more

Constraints on protecting Syrians

Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin

Although the situation in Syria and the actions of Bashar al-Assad long ago passed any criteria by which a humanitarian crisis may be defined, a mix of factors has prevented any international moves that would bring about a decisive change in the country’s tragic circumstances.

The United Nations-backed doctrine of a responsibility to protect, the third leg of which enshrines the point ‘If a State is manifestly failing to protect its populations, the international community must be prepared to take collective action to protect populations, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations’ seems unlikely to have any effect on the Syrian situation. Implementing the doctrine of ‘responsibility to protect’ was always going to be governed by what big powers saw as being in their strategic and possibly in their short-term interests. Syria will long remain a classical case to study.

The overriding concern of those countries that could alter the balance of forces within the country by supplying major weapons to the forces opposing Syria’s President is that those weapons might find their way into the hands of al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups. It would be hard to deny this is a possibility. Read more

Internationals fighting on Syrian soil: beware what might return home

Syrian soldiers, who have defected to join the Free Syrian Army, hold up their rifles as they secure a street in Saqba, in Damascus suburbs, in this January 27, 2012It’s difficult to play down the significance of the current situation in Syria from a counterterrorism perspective. Many felt that the death of Bin Laden, Al-Awlaki and numerous other key members of the al-Qaeda leadership had stemmed the tide of the movement and the global jihad. However, as terrorism issues appear to be slipping down the hierarchy of perceived risks in much of the Western world, the trends that are emerging from the Syrian conflict remind us that al-Qaeda are in this campaign for the long term and still require our attentions at home as well as abroad.

The Arab Spring in early 2011 caught most governments off-guard, as it did al-Qaeda, who were still recovering from the death of their leader and very much in disarray. But before the emergence of a popular movement against the Assad regime, which can be traced back to March 2011, al-Qaeda’s new leader Ayman al-Zawahiri had called upon pious Muslims to support an insurgency against the Syrian leadership. Al-Zawahiri’s message was released in an eight-minute video in February 2011 and was pitched predominantly at Sunni Muslims living in neighbouring Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq. Since then the message has spread further afield and the lure of joining the jihad in Syria against a Shia dictator is drawing in young men from across the globe. Read more