Tag Archive for: soft power

Stress-testing US soft power

The father of soft power and smart power has died, just as the United States has been giving those concepts a deathly stress test.

Whereas US President Donald Trump thinks hard power is all he needs, Joseph Nye broadened the world’s understanding of power.

Nye, who died last week at the age of 88, wrote that hard power rested on command, coercion or cash—‘the ability to change what others do.’ Soft co-optive power, Nye wrote in 1990, shaped what others wanted through attraction.

Soft power persuades volunteers and believers, while hard power issues orders. Nye stood with Talleyrand, who advised Napoleon: ‘You can do anything you like with bayonets, except sit on them.’

Trump has taken to heart Machiavelli’s advice that it’s better for a leader to be feared than loved. Nye believed it was best for a leader to be both.

Nye always said that good foreign policy needed both soft and hard power, and he combined them in the concept of ‘smart’ power: ‘If a state can set the agenda for others or shape their preferences, it can save a lot on carrots and sticks. But rarely can it totally replace either. Thus, the need for smart strategies that combine the tools of both hard and soft power.’

The Harvard University professor despaired at how Trump was ‘liquidating’ US soft-power reserves. The major elements of a country’s soft power, Nye argued, were its culture (‘when it is pleasing to others’), its values (‘when they are attractive and consistently practiced’), and its policies (‘when they are seen as inclusive and legitimate’).

Trump attacks on all three fronts. In the words of The Economist, the president leads ‘a revolutionary project that aspires to remake the economy, the bureaucracy, culture and foreign policy, even the idea of America itself’.

US alliances are shaken by Trump’s cavalier coercion. He zig-zags on Ukraine, often leaning towards the Russian strongman he admires. US foreign aid is smashed. The nation that set the model for free and independent journalism with its First Amendment now guts its international broadcaster and threatens its own journalists.

Trump’s international view is imperial, seeking to carve the world into spheres of influence. His raw realism has no veneer of manners—the Mafia Don makes demands that others can’t refuse. The US’s tariff campaign is driven by the Don’s demand for a deal that delivers profit.

Wielding US hard power, Trump imposes a huge stress test on US soft power and the values America has long expressed.

With an experiment, you draw conclusions from the results. The early returns from the Trump test are negative. Certainly, he is good at smashing things, but Americans can’t see much being built, as Sam Freedman notes:

Donald Trump has the lowest approval ratings of any President after 100 days. He’s even beating his own woeful first term numbers. His signature tariffs policy has been a disaster, and polls terribly. Confidence in the economy has collapsed. Even on immigration he has negative numbers.

The Trump effect on Australian opinion is similar. Previews of the 2025 Lowy poll show that Australians’ trust in the US to act responsibly has fallen by 20 percentage points, with only one third of Australians having any level of trust in the US—the lowest in the history of the survey. While having no faith in Trump, Australians still cling to the alliance, with 80 percent saying the alliance is ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security. Maybe Australians got the memo about the difference between hard and soft power.

Donald Trump’s actions prove he’s no conservative. He has no understanding of how a foreign policy realist sees the mix of forces and interests, capabilities and ambitions, or the way values and morals shape what a nation does in the world. For such thoughts, turn to Nye. A good place to start is The Strategist, which published 100 of Nye’s columns during the last decade. They’re all here.

Start with Nye’s March column, a meditation on how empires and states need both soft and hard power. The state needs legitimacy as well as legions.

The column touches on the fear Nye expressed in the memoir he published last year: that domestic change in the US could endanger the American century. Even if US external power remains dominant, a country can lose its own virtue. As Nye concluded in his column on Trump’s threat to the international system:

If the international order is eroding, the US’s domestic politics are as much of a cause as China’s rise. The question is whether we are entering a totally new period of US decline, or whether the second Trump administration’s attacks on the American century’s institutions and alliances will prove to be another cyclical dip. We may not know until 2029.

The ABC is the most trusted international media in the Pacific

Research conducted last year across six key Pacific markets confirms that overall the Australian Broadcasting Corporation is performing strongly among Pacific audiences, a significant achievement given a decline in audiences for traditional media. An important finding is that trust in the ABC across the Pacific is equal to trust levels in Australia, at nearly 80%.    

In 2023 the ABC repeated its 2021 survey in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. The aim of the ongoing research is to ensure that the ABC’s investments in the Pacific are effective and that its content and services are meeting audience needs. The survey was conducted by an independent research agency with expertise in the region and in accordance with international standards. 

The research looked at usage patterns relating to ABC Australia, ABC Radio Australia, ABC digital and social media channels, broader media consumption, and attitudes to ABC programs and Australia more generally. The findings, building on 2021 benchmarks, are robust and informative. 

Between 36% and 70% of those surveyed had listened to, watched or used ABC online in the prior three months. Respondents widely agreed that the ABC was educational, interesting and a trusted source of news and information. The ABC is highly regarded, especially for ABC news and current affairs and for targeted local-interest programming, while interest in Australian people and content is positive, high and growing.  

Digital media platforms are increasingly popular as ways to access ABC content. A very high number of those surveyed—between 67% and 98% of those who interacted with the ABC—reported that they did so through online platforms.  

Traditional media consumption still dominates, however, and the majority of those using the ABC online are also users of traditional radio and television. But the technological trends are clear: household ownership of radios and televisions is generally in decline while newspapers are increasingly read on line.  

An important measure of the impact of the of ABC in the region is its ranking against heavyweight international broadcasters such as the BBC, CNN and national broadcasters from France, Japan, New Zealand and China. In all markets the ABC was the most valued and preferred broadcaster frequented via websites, apps or social media, except in Fiji, where Al Jazeera was most preferred.  

Interest in Australia, the Australian people and Australian perspectives remain very high across the region. In fact, the appeal of Australian content has notably grown since the 2021 survey.  

Beyond the clear appeal of general ABC news and current affairs, programs doing particularly well include music and sport shows designed specifically for Pacific audiences.   

On ABC Australia TV, ABC news content dominates interaction and appeal. The ABC’s flagship Pacific program is The Pacific. It was produced in response to earlier research that showed Pacific audience hunger for news and current affairs with a Pacific focus. Since launching in 2020 That Pacific Sports Show has also rapidly increased its viewership and popularity. The ABC’s Australian Football League coverage and Gardening Australia are also popular across the region. 

Most-liked radio programs include Island Music (introduced 2021), the longstanding Pacific Beat, Stories from the Pacific (from 2023) and Sistas Let’s Talk (introduced in 2021). This indicates that the ABC’s recent programming strategies are well targeted and well received. 

The results confirm the value of regular benchmark surveys to ensure the independent ABC adapts and thrives in the Pacific as a representative of a democratic, friendly and trustworthy Australia. And they validate the government’s increased investment in the ABC as part of a broader strategy to promote shared interests within a peaceful, prosperous and resilient Pacific region. 

The ABC is the most trusted international media in the Pacific

Research conducted last year across six key Pacific markets confirms that overall the Australian Broadcasting Corporation is performing strongly among Pacific audiences, a significant achievement given a decline in audiences for traditional media. An important finding is that trust in the ABC across the Pacific is equal to trust levels in Australia, at nearly 80%.    

In 2023 the ABC repeated its 2021 survey in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu. The aim of the ongoing research is to ensure that the ABC’s investments in the Pacific are effective and that its content and services are meeting audience needs. The survey was conducted by an independent research agency with expertise in the region and in accordance with international standards. 

The research looked at usage patterns relating to ABC Australia, ABC Radio Australia, ABC digital and social media channels, broader media consumption, and attitudes to ABC programs and Australia more generally. The findings, building on 2021 benchmarks, are robust and informative. 

Between 36% and 70% of those surveyed had listened to, watched or used ABC online in the prior three months. Respondents widely agreed that the ABC was educational, interesting and a trusted source of news and information. The ABC is highly regarded, especially for ABC news and current affairs and for targeted local-interest programming, while interest in Australian people and content is positive, high and growing.  

Digital media platforms are increasingly popular as ways to access ABC content. A very high number of those surveyed—between 67% and 98% of those who interacted with the ABC—reported that they did so through online platforms.  

Traditional media consumption still dominates, however, and the majority of those using the ABC online are also users of traditional radio and television. But the technological trends are clear: household ownership of radios and televisions is generally in decline while newspapers are increasingly read on line.  

An important measure of the impact of the of ABC in the region is its ranking against heavyweight international broadcasters such as the BBC, CNN and national broadcasters from France, Japan, New Zealand and China. In all markets the ABC was the most valued and preferred broadcaster frequented via websites, apps or social media, except in Fiji, where Al Jazeera was most preferred.  

Interest in Australia, the Australian people and Australian perspectives remain very high across the region. In fact, the appeal of Australian content has notably grown since the 2021 survey.  

Beyond the clear appeal of general ABC news and current affairs, programs doing particularly well include music and sport shows designed specifically for Pacific audiences.   

On ABC Australia TV, ABC news content dominates interaction and appeal. The ABC’s flagship Pacific program is The Pacific. It was produced in response to earlier research that showed Pacific audience hunger for news and current affairs with a Pacific focus. Since launching in 2020 That Pacific Sports Show has also rapidly increased its viewership and popularity. The ABC’s Australian Football League coverage and Gardening Australia are also popular across the region. 

Most-liked radio programs include Island Music (introduced 2021), the longstanding Pacific Beat, Stories from the Pacific (from 2023) and Sistas Let’s Talk (introduced in 2021). This indicates that the ABC’s recent programming strategies are well targeted and well received. 

The results confirm the value of regular benchmark surveys to ensure the independent ABC adapts and thrives in the Pacific as a representative of a democratic, friendly and trustworthy Australia. And they validate the government’s increased investment in the ABC as part of a broader strategy to promote shared interests within a peaceful, prosperous and resilient Pacific region. 

Hello, 21st century, Australia calling


The review of Australia’s media reach in the Asia–Pacific is an orphan inquiry that has the chance to do great work. The responsible adults didn’t want the orphan, but they really need it.

The Coalition government didn’t seek the inquiry. Nor did the Australian Broadcasting Corporation like the way the inquiry was born. Yet now the orphan is up and running, it can offer answers and options both the government and the ABC need.

The media review is the progeny of a political deal (to win a parliamentary vote) that could deliver important policy. Such strange things happen in Canberra all the time. In theory, governments set up reviews to investigate difficult issues and offer solutions. Yes, minister, up to a point, but there’s always the dark art side …

Four dark reasons for an inquiry are:

  1. To deliver a pre-determined answer (writing terms of reference is a vital subset of this category).
  2. To defuse, delay or defer a political or policy headache.
  3. To seal a deal.
  4. To desert a leaky ship—to set the stage to shift or abandon policy.

The Asia–Pacific policy review delivers on one part of a deal the government made with then Senator Nick Xenophon to get his vote for changes to Australian media law.

The Xenophon agreement explains the rather limp justification the orphan inquiry offers for its existence, saying that last September, ‘the Government agreed to conduct a review of Asia Pacific Broadcasting Services’.

Here’s hoping that as well as the political-fix needs of dark arts category 3, the inquiry is going to stride into category 4 territory—preparing the way to shift policy.

To get the changes that Australia needs in its international media thinking, the government and the ABC will have to bury a lot of recent nastiness and bickering. Certainly, the times demand such a switch of tone and shift of policy. The review of Oz media interest/role/future in the Asia–Pacific is a chance for a Canberra re-do.

The government can overturn its own poor and petty decisions that have damaged our international voice. And the ABC can use the opportunity to repair and recover its role as the Oz international broadcaster, a core Charter responsibility that Aunty has been shedding. Asia and the South Pacific demand new thoughts and myriad means—media and communications are an important element. And this element of Oz policy has been withering.

The review ‘to assess the reach of Australia’s media in the Asia Pacific region’ will find that Australia has been reaching less and less. Australia retreats from the Asia–Pacific media arena as the contest intensifies. The liberal rules-based international order sags and struggles and strains. Fake news abounds. Great power competition builds.

No good crisis should go to waste: thus, tough times call for a substantial rethink of Australia’s media voices in the Asia–Pacific, as an integral part of our strategy for confronting the new abnormal of international power.

The inquiry can deliver vital thoughts about how Australia should be talking with the near neighbours in the South Pacific and Southeast Asia, and with the broader region. Please note: talking with, not to.

In the South Pacific, Australia’s policy re-do should be based on a lot of listening to the region on the importance of Australia’s silenced shortwave service and the Australian media role in the Islands.

The inquiry has the delicate task of stepping through the ruin of past government and ABC actions. There’s still smoke and debris from the Coalition’s decision to axe the ABC’s $220 million, 10-year contract to run the Asia–Pacific television service, Australia Network. That chop happened in the first year of the contract.

The Abbott government action was a sad example of Australian international interests being trampled by domestic argy-bargy because of deeply-entrenched hang-ups about the ABC. The Liberal Party fear of the ABC was succinctly expressed long ago by John Howard’s consigliere Graham Morris: ‘The ABC is our enemy talking to our friends.’

The enemy/friends tension is a backhanded tribute to the importance of the ABC and its influence across Australian society. For many decades, that ABC influence reached beyond our borders. The domestic politics of the old Liberal battle with Aunty has obscured the ABC’s traditional role as a major media voice in our neighbourhood.

The constant Coalition squeeze on the ABC budget has had an important unintended consequence—sapping not just ABC resources but the ABC’s focus on its charter responsibility for international broadcasting.

The ABC must confront its loss of international focus. Closing down the shortwave service to the South Pacific last year was the act of a myopic organisation. The ABC discarded its shortwave audience by degrading the signal, an act of technological bastardry.

Last year’s Senate inquiry into the shortwave shutdown—inspired by Nick Xenophon—set the scene for this new Foreign/Communications inquiry. The Senate majority report recommended against legislation to overturn the shortwave decision, saying this would infringe on the ABC’s independence. But you’ll find plenty in that Senate report on why it was a bad (and bastard) move by Aunty: the ABC decided on its own interests and told the South Pacific it no longer needed shortwave.

The new inquiry should listen to the Pacific view that shortwave is still vital. It’d be a welcome change, listening to what the Islands say they need, rather than telling them what they’ll get.

Reviving shortwave should be one part of a much bigger project: to revive the ABC as an international broadcaster and to create a 21st-century voice for Australia across the Asia–Pacific.

To be continued …

Soft power takes a sharp turn

The question of foreign interference in Australian politics hasn’t ended with Sam Dastiyari’s political capitulation. The events of 2017 weren’t even the end of the beginning.

In the same week as the Dastiyari scandal, a report from the US-based think tank National Endowment for Democracy (NED) raised more warnings about covert influence on democracies by China and Russia. This new form of ‘sharp power’—a phrase coined in the NED report—exploits liberal institutions, especially free speech, independent media and electoral democracy. Strengths become weaknesses; Sun Tzu would be proud.

Similar reports by Oxford’s Computational Propaganda Research Project, Freedom House and researchers from Harvard, Stanford and the University of California at San Diego have shown how governments use tactics like feigning grassroots support (‘astroturfing’) and targeting campaigns through ‘hashtag poisoning’. China, the Philippines, Turkey and Mexico have all been called out for targeting domestic political opponents and civil society groups. Russia and China are also implicated in international campaigns of covert or malign influence.

It’s been working. The apparent success of Russia’s Internet Research Agency in significantly and perhaps decisively affecting elections in the US and Europe, and the Brexit referendum, is cause for alarm. British PM Theresa May has called such activities the ‘weaponisation of information’, probably referring to a RAND Corporation report of the same name.

Australia’s response has included introducing new laws that take aim at interference via the covert use of social media for political purposes.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull named China (and Russia) in the press conference announcing the legislation, which triggered a full-throated rebuttal from China. A series of editorials from pro-Beijing bullhorns like the Global Times and China Daily characterised Australia’s political discourse and media reporting as ‘anti-China’, blamed the hostile rhetoric for attacks on Chinese students, and promoted the perception that Australia is unfriendly to the Chinese.

These assertions are overblown but not irrelevant. They signal potential ramifications for Australia. China has previously imposed de facto bans on—or created coincidental rapid downturns in—entertainment from and tourism to South Korea, and on banana imports from the Philippines (since reversed thanks to President Rodrigo Duterte’s banana diplomacy). It’s both easy and chilling to imagine the effect that a significant drop in Chinese arrivals could have on Australia’s tourism and higher education sectors.

And that could happen without the Chinese government taking any direct action. An online ‘demarketing’ social media campaign by patriotic Chinese netizens, responding to signals in the pro-Beijing press, wouldn’t fall foul of the proposed laws but could really hurt our economy.

The use of social media during the Bennelong by-election to distribute a letter denouncing the Australian Liberal Party as anti-Chinese is another worrying warning. Though the letter’s origins are murky, it was reportedly spread via WeChat (a popular Chinese social messaging service) by networks linked to the United Front Work Department, the Chinese Communist Party’s body that’s responsible for building influence internationally. This secretive micro-targeting eerily echoes the communications campaigns under investigation in relation to the 2016 US presidential election.

Social media campaigns present two wicked dilemmas. First, their massive quantities of content and speed-of-light transmission networks probably make them unstoppable. And second, even when they’re identified, discredited and exposed as fraudulent, they remain sufficiently potent to fool enough of the people enough of the time.

Proposed counter-strategies from the likes of the US-based Council on Foreign Relations—such as producing more compelling counter-narratives, and educating or cautioning the public and media outlets about the prevalence of untrustworthy news sources—seem unconvincing.

Seeking influence is neither new nor wrong. Both Turnbull and the NED made a distinction between soft power (Joseph Nye’s term for the power of persuasion and attraction) and sharp power, which is secretive, manipulative and deceitful.

Turnbull also distinguished between soft power and interference (which is ‘covert, coercive or corrupting’) and suggested that Australia’s new laws are designed to indicate the legal limits of foreign influence—and thus make it clear where the red lines are. That will be helpful for everyone engaged in business or political lobbying. Our relationships are far too important to risk damage from misunderstandings based on fuzzy concepts. I think our Chinese friends might agree.

There are reasons to be confident that Australia can weather the storms of deception and misinformation. The NED report highlights the vulnerabilities of democracies with shallow roots; in contrast, Australia’s democratic norms and institutions are entrenched and comparatively strong. But they’re not invulnerable to the debilitating effects of corruption, hyper-partisanship and fragmenting constituencies.

The best defences against interference in our democracy therefore appear to be both banal and challenging: a strong democracy and higher levels of social trust, aided by strong institutions and leaders acting in our common interest, an independent and non-partisan press, an engaged citizenry, and a society that is diverse, welcoming and openly, confidently pluralistic.

And keep diversifying those markets for inbound tourism and education.