Tag Archive for: RAN

Trucking in steel for the navy’s new ships

Steel for the Royal Australian Navy’s first offshore patrol vessel is being cut in Western Australia and trucked to Adelaide where construction is set to begin next week.

The vessel is the first of 12 OPVs based on the PV80 design of the German shipbuilder Lürssen. It’s one of two OPVs to be built at ASC’s Osborne shipyard. The remaining 10 vessels will be built in the Henderson yard of WA-based Civmec. The steel, from Australian mills, is cut by Civmec and taken by road to South Australia.

The 1,700-tonne OPVs, 80 metres long and capable of 22 knots, will ultimately replace the navy’s Armidale-class and Cape-class patrol boats, coastal minehunters and survey ships.

Lürssen chief executive Peter Lürssen told The Strategist that Australian officials had completed their review of the design, and assembly of the ships was on schedule for the promised mid-November start date. The first plates to arrive at the Osborne yard gate were those for the first ship’s double bottom, and truckloads would continue until Christmas, Lürssen said.  ‘Because the OPV is only 80 metres, we build the whole length deck by deck. Because we don’t have to cut steel, we can put more people onto assembly so that helps get more people into work earlier.’

The first OPV is scheduled to be launched in Adelaide in the first quarter of 2021.

Lürssen rejected concerns that Civmec has not built ships previously. ‘They are very well trained and equipped for steel construction. If you go to their headquarters, interestingly enough, you can see a section of a submarine they built to demonstrate how good they are. This is really good quality. They have done fantastic work in steel.’ That included structures designed to function under great pressure in very deep water.

‘They know what this is all about. The rest is a skill base that we will develop together.’

The Henderson area, south of Perth, had a strong shipbuilding history, so Lürssen was confident of finding enough expert personnel for the OPV project. Australian engineers would be taken to the company’s yards in Germany to gain further experience in design and construction.

Lürssen said he was happy with the relationship that was developing with ASC. ‘Everything’s scheduled and on track. We have full agreement on price, terms and conditions. It took a little longer than with others, but that, I think, is understandable because ASC is not in an easy position.’ ASC, he said, was in the midst of a reorganisation and plant construction. ‘I’ve seen this happen to other companies and it was more complicated. So everything’s on track there.’

Building two ships in South Australia and the other 10 in WA was not a big issue, Lürssen said.

‘It’s all possible, and it’s not complicated as long as you know the distribution of the work early on in the contract. And it was always made clear to us that two will be built in Adelaide, and then 10 in WA. And this was easy because when you start in the beginning, you can plan for it.’

The split build is intended to keep the South Australian shipbuilding workforce employed in the time between the end of construction of the navy’s three air warfare destroyers and the start of work on nine new frigates.

During the competition for the OPV contract, Lürssen raised the prospect of exporting naval vessels from WA, so how realistic was that?

‘Absolutely. We are talking to a number of countries already—and we are actively promoting Australia as the builder.’

Lürssen had already been talking to the Philippines about the possibility of building six OPVs for its navy. Discussions were also underway with two other countries, but it was too early to name them at this stage, Lürssen said. ‘When you talk to a client, then you are in a front-running position. You don’t want to share that information with others.

‘A chicken should only make noise when the egg is there and not way before that. So you will hear us talk about things when we’ve got things to say.’

He said his company was one of five or six from Australia and abroad which had responded to a request for information about the project from the Philippines navy.

‘We clearly made the case that a number of ships need to be built in Australia to familiarise the Philippines people with the build techniques, and then they can continue the contract in the Philippines.’

Lürssen said his company would have the resources to run two such projects simultaneously. It won the Australian competition on technical quality and overall performance, so of course it was hopeful, he said. ‘We will put our best effort forward together with our Australian partners to win the competition.’

WA-based Austal has already shown strong interest in the Philippines contract and Lürssen said the other companies involved came from Britain, Italy and South Korea.

The OPVs will undertake what the navy refers to as ‘constabulary missions’ and maritime patrols and they are intended to be ready to respond quickly to emergencies.

They’ll be equipped with state-of-the-art sensors and command and communication systems that will allow them to operate alongside Australian Border Force vessels, other Australian Defence Force units and vessels of regional partners.

Going nuclear: would US submarines be a cheaper option?

The conversation about acquiring nuclear-powered submarines continues to bubble along. Some commentators who previously supported acquiring conventional submarines to replace the current Collins class, such as former prime minister Tony Abbott, now favour the nuclear option. But as Abbott noted, the government has never fully investigated the nuclear option. Consequently there is no agreed factual baseline and many public claims about nuclear submarines are speculative and possibly questionable. It’s been suggested, for example, that acquiring the United States Navy’s current nuclear attack submarine, the Virginia class, would have a similar—or even smaller—cost to designing and building Naval Group’s Shortfin Barracuda here in Australia (for example, here and here).

Let’s assume the government is willing to toss its Naval Shipbuilding Plan out the window and that the US is willing to sell us Virginia class boats off-the-shelf from US shipyards. What would it cost? Attempting to compare two very different things, one of which exists, the other of which doesn’t, is a fraught exercise. But while the Shortfin Barracuda is likely to be the most expensive conventional submarine ever built, there are some good reasons to think that the Virginia would not be cheaper.

Let’s look at a very high level parametric comparison. The Virginia weighs in at around 8,000 tonnes. The Shortfin Barracuda looks like it will between 4,500-5,000 tonnes. So with everything else being equal, the Shortfin Barracuda would need to cost around 60% more per tonne to be more expensive. RAND Corporation’s 2015 study of the Australian shipbuilding industry suggested that building in Australia historically incurred a 30-40% premium compared to the United States, although that study was based solely on surface ships. The intent of the government’s continuous shipbuilding policy is to bring those premiums down, but even if that doesn’t occur, Shortfin Barracudas still look like they’ll be cheaper.

We can also compare the publicly available information about the two classes, noting that there is a vast gulf in the quality of information in the US compared to here. The US Department of Defense’s Justification Book for fiscal year 2019 for shipbuilding (p. 37) provides a unit cost for a Virginia class submarine of US$3.25 billion. If we multiply by 12 and convert at current exchange rate that makes around A$53.7 billion (of course, if the Aussie dollar sank, that number would go up).

We don’t know what Defence has estimated the unit cost of a Shortfin Barracuda to be (and likely never will). In response to questions at Senate hearings, Defence officials have stated that the estimated total acquisition cost of the future submarine program, which is designing and building 12 Shortfin Barracudas, is around $50 billion ‘constant dollars’ (a measure which doesn’t take inflation and price escalation into account). The cost of Australian projects includes everything needed to bring a capability into service. In the case of the future submarine program that likely includes wharves, training and testing facilities, simulators, and so on.

So these elements would need to be added to the A$53.7 billion for Virginia class boats to get an apples to apples comparison. How much would they cost? These enabling elements that make up the support system can comprise a large percentage of the cost of the platforms themselves. A lot would depend on how much infrastructure would be needed here to safely support nuclear propulsion—and that’s another area where there is no consensus among commentators. Putting that aside, the change from Collins to the Virginias would be so great that virtually every other part of the support system would need to be replaced. The $1.5 billion facilities bill for the joint strike fighter would likely pale in comparison.

The future submarine program estimate also includes design costs. But again, that’s not included in the Virginia’s US$3.25 billion cost per boat. What share of the Virginia program’s design costs would the US pass on to us? Even if it waived historical design costs, what share of the design of enhancements and upgrades to future batches of Virginias would we pay over the build process?

We shouldn’t forget that Defence normally costs in ‘out-turned’ dollars that take inflation and price escalation into account. In an earlier piece we made some assumptions around schedule and escalation and suggested the $50 billion constant estimate for the future submarine program would out-turn to around $79 billion. The $53.7 billion cost of the Virginias is essentially a constant figure, so once we out-turned that and added in all the elements of the support system, it’s hard to see the Virginias coming in at less than $100 billion.

On top of that, there are operating costs. Considering the Virginia has a crew of 135 compared to probably around half that for the Shortfin Barracuda, just the additional uniformed workforce required could cost $400 million more per year. And operating costs are also related to size, so the 8,000 tonne Virginia will no doubt cost a lot more to sustain than a 5,000 tonne Shortfin Barracuda. We are currently paying $592 million per year to sustain the six Collins. I suspect 12 Shortfin Barracudas will be around three times that (p. 85), and 12 Virginias could double that again. So the difference in operating cost between 12 Shortfin Barracudas and 12 Virginias could be around $1.5 billion per year—or close to $2 billion once we include workforce. So that’s an additional $60 billion over the life of the submarines (and that’s constant, not out-turned). Again, a big uncertainty is the cost of the infrastructure necessary to support nuclear-powered boats.

It’s possible to argue over these assumptions—that’s at the core of the art and science of cost estimation—but overall, it’s hard to see how 12 Virginias could cost less than 12 Shortfin Barracudas, let alone half as much, as has been suggested. Now cost is not the same thing as value. One can argue that the future submarine program is primarily about delivering an effect, and not about a particular number of submarines per se, and since nuclear attack submarines can deliver a greater effect (through faster transit speeds, greater endurance, no requirement to leave station to recharge batteries and greater weapons load), we would not need to buy as many Virginias to deliver the same or greater effect as 12 Shortfin Barracudas.

That’s a fair point, but a discussion for another time.

 

Editor’s note: In November ASPI will publish Rear Admiral (ret) Peter Briggs’ report arguing for the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines and how the challenges involved can be addressed.

The Second Battle of Heligoland Bight—a centenary

The 17th of November marked the centenary of the Second Battle of the Heligoland Bight. An inconclusive action, unsatisfactory for both Germans and British, it came about because of vital changes in the naval war. The battle itself has an interesting Australian sidelight as the first occasion on which RAN College graduates saw action: present aboard HMS Glorious were five 18-year-old RAN midshipmen of the initial 1913 entry.

In 1917, the British had finally started an effective offensive minelaying campaign in the Heligoland Bight. That it had taken so long was due to the poor quality of British mines—after many delays, the Royal Navy’s first reliable mine was copied from a German model. Seeding mines in the Heligoland Bight created a problem of coastal defence for the Germans 150 nautical miles off their coast. It was ‘anti-access/area denial’ in reverse. The minefields cut Germany off from the North Sea, constraining not only the High Seas Fleet, but also the U-boats on which Germany was depending to starve Britain into submission by sinking Allied shipping. The German navy was soon absorbed by the minesweeping effort, placing increasing strain on ships and people.

With Admiralty intelligence of German operations, the opportunity could not be missed. The Germans had deployed 14 minesweepers and two mine breakers, escorted by eight torpedo boats and four light cruisers, commanded by Rear-Admiral von Reuter in the cruiser Königsberg. The battleships Kaiserin and Kaiser (‘the married couple’) were providing heavy cover, but from 60 miles southeast. The British approached the Bight early on the 17th. Covered from the west by the First Battle Cruiser Squadron, the First and Sixth Light Cruiser Squadrons and their destroyer flotillas were supported by the ‘large light cruisers’ Courageous and Glorious under the command of Vice-Admiral Napier.

British knowledge of mine danger areas was extraordinarily hit-and-miss. Only the Grand Fleet’s commander-in-chief and the battle cruisers’ commander, Vice-Admiral Pakenham, had a full picture. Napier had enough information to go east past ‘Line A’, and believed he could also move past ‘Line B’, which made provision for recent British minefields, but had been ordered not to proceed further east than ‘Line C’. The light cruisers’ charts, however, didn’t include Line C. Furthermore, there was little information about the mines. Line C related to ineffective British mines laid long before, but Napier didn’t know that.

When contact was made, the rising sun silhouetted the Germans, but at long range. Courageous and Glorious took on the enemy light cruisers with the First Light Cruiser Squadron’s support, while the Sixth Light Cruiser Squadron initially went for the sweepers. Napier didn’t take advantage of the large light cruisers’ speed of over 30 knots, never ordering more than 25. Failure to exploit the large cruisers’ speed was significant as the other British ships were no faster than their German opposite numbers.

Finding 15-inch shells falling around them, all German units rapidly made smoke. Within 15 minutes, ‘all enemy vessels were well hidden’. Von Reuter took risks, delaying his withdrawal to ensure no light craft were left behind and steaming through waters believed dangerous because of British mines. The British were baffled by the thick smoke, consumed by the fear that it concealed waiting torpedo craft or U-boats (none were present).  When an uncertain Napier arrived at Line B just before 0840, he turned northeast before deciding to resume the chase. The Germans continued their retreat, however, and their gain of four miles was crucial.

Meanwhile, the fast battle cruiser Repulse had been detached by Pakenham and took the lead. The light cruisers, unaware of the restrictions, also continued onwards. Rear-Admiral Phillimore, in Repulse, received a warning from Pakenham about Line B, but ignored it. At 0908, Pakenham, worried by the growing risks, issued a recall. Napier, however, decided to go on, although not for much longer. Cardiff, Caledon and Royalist had already been hit. Von Reuter hoped to cripple his opponents, so they could be finished off by his reinforcements. The battle cruisers Hindenburg and Moltke had sailed at 0840 and were followed by two battleships. The proximity of Germany was confirmed by the appearance of aircraft which bombed the British ships.

The British believed they were scoring hits, but to limited effect. Geometry didn’t allow them to use torpedoes and only one weapon was fired. The Germans, however, did no better. Galatea may have been struck by one that failed to explode, but there were no other hits. When wakes were seen, the British assumed they were U-boat torpedoes, while several ships thought they spotted submarines.

At 0930, Kaiserin and Kaiser finally came in sight of von Reuter. Captain Grasshof in the Kaiserin saw his task as covering a retreat, not taking the offensive, despite this being the action in the Heligoland Bight that the Germans had always wanted. Von Reuter attempted to order Grasshof to advance northwest, but his signals weren’t received and the battleships turned east. A frustrated von Reuter had to continue his retreat. Only the British light cruisers maintaining their advance allowed the battleships to engage them. Just before this, the Germans scored an important hit. A 150-millimetre round struck Calypso’s forward superstructure, killing her captain and many bridge personnel.

At 0932 Napier reached Line C and turned south, ordering Repulse to advance no further. Probably as unaware as the light cruisers of Line C, Phillimore continued the pursuit, providing important support to them. Had Repulse not been present, Grasshof might have been more enterprising, particularly as he was joined by four destroyers. Von Reuter would certainly have acted differently, but Repulse scored a single hit on Königsberg with important consequences. The shell started a serious fire. Königsberg’s speed reduced, von Reuter’s ideas of turning back were frustrated and his continuing southeast meant the action was effectively over, for the British cruisers responded to the battleships’ salvoes by turning away. The opposed forces opened rapidly and a sudden fog ended any chance of the action’s immediate resumption. Hindenburg and Moltke made their best speed to join but didn’t venture further after they found von Reuter. The Germans finally turned northwest only after the two extra battleships arrived in the afternoon, but the British had gone.

The Germans recriminated afterwards. With the Kaiserin’s and Kaiser’s misemployment, they had lost the chance of an important success. Grasshof was posted ashore. The British had their own problems. Napier was subjected to bitter criticism, although opinion wasn’t unanimous. Where he had clearly erred was failing to use the Courageous’ and Glorious’ speed. Pakenham was particularly critical of the risks Phillimore took in Repulse, although the commander-in-chief, Admiral Beatty, endorsed his actions. The British had to admit that neither their doctrine, planning nor exercises had prepared them for such conditions. The deficiencies that had been revealed could not be concealed, even if public criticism was directed at the Admiralty, rather than the Grand Fleet, where blame really lay. The failure would contribute to the dismissal of the First Sea Lord, Admiral Jellicoe, six weeks later.

As for the young RAN midshipmen, perhaps they learned something from their seniors’ failures. The quality of their performance in 1939–1945 suggests they did.

German design for the Australian Navy’s new OPVs

The German shipbuilder Lürssen Werft has been selected to design and oversee the building of the Australian Navy’s 12 new offshore patrol vessels. But in a move that has startled some in the industry, the government announced today that Lürssen would team up with West Australian shipbuilder Austal and a subsidiary of a WA engineering  company, Civmec, to build 10 of the vessels in WA.

The promise to build 10 of the vessels in WA was made long ago, but Austal had joined with another German company, Fassmer, in a rival bid while Lürssen was originally teamed with Civmec and the Adelaide-based ASC. The third contender for the contract worth well over $3 billion was the Netherlands company Damen, which had also teamed up with the Civmec subsidiary and ASC.

The first two vessels will be built in Adelaide by ASC Shipbuilding to ensure continuity of employment for skilled personnel before work begins on nine future frigates in 2020. Work on the first OPV is scheduled to begin there in the third quarter of 2018.

Austal CEO David Singleton told The Strategist he believed the government had made a very sensible decision. On most of its shipbuilding projects Austal was involved in, about 70% of the work was outsourced to other companies. He said Civmec was a highly competent steel fabricator and the two companies would work very well together.

Mr Singleton said Austal was the experienced shipbuilder of the pair and it would construct the vessels at its Henderson yard, so sharing work with Civmec was not a problem. That would benefit both Austal and Civmec, he said, and provide shipbuilding in WA with a 15-year backbone.

Earlier, Mr Singleton told shareholders: ‘There’s only one company building ships on the Henderson coast and you can be sure there won’t be two companies building ships.’

The announcement by Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne contained little detail but said that once the first two OPVs were built in Adelaide, the project would shift to the Henderson Maritime Precinct in WA where Lürssen would use the capabilities of Austal and Civmec to build 10 more vessels ‘subject to the conclusion of commercial negotiations’. ‘Under the model announced today, Lürssen will be the prime contractor leading a fully Australian build team comprising experienced shipbuilders as directed by the Australian government,’ Mr Pyne said.

For decades, while Australia’s shipbuilding industry struggled with delays, cost overruns and uncertainty about its future, Austal was a success story that sailed largely under the radar.

The company began 20 years ago building crayfishing boats and then began building giant aluminium ferries for the international commercial market. Its civilian ferry designs so impressed senior officers from the US Navy that they borrowed one to try it out and then contracted the company to produce a military version for high-speed operations in waters near to land.

In October, it won a $190 million contract for two high-speed trimaran ferries to operate in Spain’s Canary Islands. The 117-metre-long aluminium-hulled ferries are of a design similar to the very fast Littoral Combat Ships Austal builds for the US Navy at its shipyard in Mobile, Alabama.

Austal also announced the signing of a contract to build a 15th Independence-class littoral combat ship for the US, bringing total sales of the sleek and futuristic looking vessels to over $8.5 billion.

It is also building 19 steel-hulled Pacific Patrol Boats at Henderson.

During the bid process, Lürssen said it wants to use the OPV contract to establish a strong enough foothold in Australia to begin exporting warships from WA to regional allies.

The family-owned company, which has been building ships since the 1870s, was one of three European contenders for the OPV project with a version of its Darussalam-class corvette it built for the Royal Brunei Navy.

The 12 OPVs will replace the navy’s 13 much smaller Armidale-class patrol boats which have, at times, found the very heavy seas encountered during border protection and rescue operations off northern Australia heavy going.

Navy chief Vice Admiral Tim Barrett said the OPVs would be 80 metres long, with a displacement of 1,700 tonnes and a draught of 4 metres.

They will be fitted with a 40 mm gun for self-protection, 3 x 8.4 m sea boats, state-of-the art sensors and command and communication systems that will allow them to operate alongside the Australian Border Force vessels, other ADF units and allies.

They will have a crew of around 40.

Vice Admiral Barrett said the ships would be able to go further and stay at sea longer than the vessels they were replacing.

The first is due to enter service in 2021.

The Strategist Six: Greg Sammut

Welcome to The Strategist Six, a feature that provides a glimpse into the thinking of academics, government officials, military officers, reporters and interesting individuals from around the world.

1. How long will the Collins-class submarines operate and, in retrospect, how should Australians view the Collins program?

The new submarine is entering service from the early 2030s. The Collins class will be our primary capability into the 2030s. We’ve always made it clear that it’ll be necessary to extend its life. There’s nothing preventing us doing that. Collins is employed on operations today and I believe it is regionally superior. With the Collins, we took the audacious and very successful step to manufacture submarines in Australia. I think we overlook too often the successes achieved in delivering a fleet of very capable submarines. Now that appropriate support and sustainment arrangements are in place, we’re seeing a world-class submarine that meets Australia’s expectations.

2. Given the current debate, is the future submarine a new design and could an existing submarine have been bought ‘off the shelf’?

It’s a new design, as any conventional submarine to meet our capability requirements would have to be. That doesn’t mean it’s devoid of the lineage of Naval Group designs that have preceded it—and, in particular, the Barracuda design as a reference. We’re also drawing on Naval Group’s experience in designing conventional submarines. After years of research, we couldn’t find a military-off-the-shelf submarine to meet Australia’s requirements. We need a submarine with the range and endurance of Collins to operate where we believe submarines need to operate. We have to improve stealth and sensor performance in a submarine that will operate into the 2070s.

3. What’s the design and construction schedule and when will the submarines be delivered?

A key lesson from the Collins program, and many shipbuilding programs, is to ensure we have a mature design before construction commences. We began construction of the Collins with less than 10% of production drawings and detailed design complete. This time we’ll ensure we have high design maturity before the build.

Work on establishing the dimensions of the submarine is complete. That pre-sizing—the initial length, diameter, displacement and other key parameters—is crucial to ensure the submarine remains balanced as the design proceeds and increasing requirements are considered. Nobody wants a submarine that becomes too large in trying to meet too many requirements.

We’re currently in concept design, which will lead into preliminary design and then detailed design and a very effective plan for how the submarine will be built. There’ll be a lot of testing in laboratories and on land-based test sites. We’ll also need prototyping so that when we start construction we’ll have a practised workforce and proven methods. Three key facilities to be completed by mid-2021 include the land-based site to integrate and test the main motor, the batteries, the diesel generators, the DC switchboard and the platform management system which will control all of that and knit it together before it’s installed in the submarine. The combat system will be built and tested on a raft in a physical integration facility and then inserted into the submarine as the boat is built. That will ensure it works well and allows a high level of security. We need a hull construction hall built by mid-2021 to train the workforce. We should commence construction in around 2023, ramping up to construction of the modules that will go into those hulls and aiming to deliver the submarine in 2032. We’re allowing about 36 months before starting the second submarine so that we can fold what we learn on the first boat into the second. Then we’ll go into, probably, a two-year drumbeat for commencement of construction of the remainder. There’s no time to waste now.

4. Will all the submarines be built in Australia and why was Naval Group chosen as a partner?

Many people think we’re going to build them in France. We’re not. We’ll build all 12 in Australia. Australians must be involved in all stages of the design and construction of the yard itself and the submarine, the supply chain and the integration and testing of platforms and combat systems as we go through the design process. Without the ability to do those things on our terms, we lack true sovereignty and the ability to upgrade and deploy the submarines when and as we must.

To ensure we have the sovereign capability to sustain the submarines through their lives, we must maximise Australian industry’s involvement. That’s not simply done by mandating a level. By most accepted figures, we had between 67% and 70% involvement in the Collins, but we didn’t emerge from the acquisition phase with a sovereign capacity to operate and sustain the submarines. That took many years of hard work. We need to get that right from the beginning. A key driver of the choice of Naval Group was capability and the assessment that it offered us the best opportunity to design and deliver a regionally superior submarine and, importantly, one over which we have the sovereign capacity to operate and sustain over its life. This could not be simply a commercial relationship. It always had to be backed by a treaty-level government arrangement between our country and the home nation of our partner. We’re developing plans for technology transfer.

5. Are you converting a nuclear-powered Barracuda submarine to conventional power and might a switch be made to nuclear power in the future?

You can’t convert a nuclear submarine to a conventional submarine. That’s why we have a deliberate design process. The Barracuda is a reference design. Many calculations and methods used to develop the Barracuda can be reemployed effectively in the future submarine. That’s a tremendous advantage and it’s what most submarine nations do—go back to the lineage of their designs and take them forward. There’s no plan to switch to nuclear power. Before we can contemplate a nuclear-powered fleet, there’d need to be a much broader policy debate about nuclear power itself.

6. Is there any doubt about using pump-jet propulsion, will the submarine use air-independent propulsion and lithium-ion batteries and will it have a land-strike capability?

We are using pump-jet propulsion that was offered by France. Some claims about the pump jet are misleading. It’s not purely for use in nuclear submarines. It can be efficient across the entire speed range, taking account of the submarine’s size, the speed required and stealth. It needs to be tuned to the hull of the submarine. The hull needs to be tuned to the pump jet. We did not specify that the boat should have or not have air-independent propulsion or lithium-ion batteries, rather that it met our requirements. We’ll continue to look at all applicable technologies as we go through the design process. The government did not require a land-strike capability. The future submarine is being designed to fulfil key roles, anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], and special operations.

Flying the (Swedish) flag for a submarine Plan B

My previous post on the future submarines talked about having a Plan B in case the project runs into insurmountable problems. In his response, Jon Stanford seconded the need for an insurance policy. So on that we are agreed—but we differ markedly on what it should look like.

Jon reiterated the case for a modified military-off-the-shelf (MMOTS) solution, as found in the recent Insight Economics report (PDF). If I thought that was possible, I might even sign up to it. But a modified design isn’t ‘military off the shelf’, and the changes required to extend the range and endurance of a submarine engineered with a delicate balance of weight and volume aren’t likely to be easy. (Recall Gumley’s Law that MOTS + MOTS ≠ MOTS.) So MMOTS isn’t low risk, which is what we want in insurance for a risky project.

Delivery of even genuinely MOTS submarines typically takes five to 10 years from contract signature—it’s not like there’s unused submarine construction capacity out there. We’d have to take our place in the queue behind other customers and home navies, so we’d be well into Plan B before we knew whether we were really going to need it. Ideally, Plan B is a backup to turn to only if needed. It would be wasteful to commit resources to it early, only to later find that it wasn’t required.

Another problem is that it would require the Australian navy to transition between classes of submarines twice—once from Collins to the MMOTS boat, and then to the future submarines when they are delivered (or, worse, simultaneously if the MMOTS schedule slips even a little). That’s a big ask of the navy, and the transition from the Oberon class to the Collins showed that it takes a lot of time and manpower, and requires careful planning. We didn’t get it right back then, as shown by the subsequent decade of manning and sustainment problems in the Collins, so trying to do it twice in a decade would consume a lot of resources.

One of the major motivations for advocating the MMOTS approach is concern about the cost and risk of a Collins life-of-type extension (LOTE). We don’t have an authoritative figure for the LOTE, but Insight Economics suggests that it might cost $15 billion, which they say is ‘equivalent to acquiring more than 15 new MOTS submarines’. I don’t think that’s right. After all, they’re not proposing buying MOTS boats, so our new boats would cost more to design and build. They’d also come with all the extra training, facilities and logistics costs that accompany a new type. The price differential between MMOTS and LOTE would likely be smaller than Insight Economics assumes. In fact, if the MMOTS solution is to have useful range, surely it must resemble the German future submarine proposal, which was quoted at $20 billion.

The Collins boats have a performance suitable (though probably not optimal) for the tasks we set our submarine fleet, and we have sustainment and operational workforces that know how to maintain and deploy them effectively. The key question therefore becomes whether a Collins LOTE is workable, and some good judges think it is. John Coles, who conducted an extensive inquiry into support of the Collins class, went on the public record about the potential longevity of Collins in his first report in 2012 (PDF). The most recent Coles report (2016; PDF) includes charts that assume a successful LOTE, and says that the indications are positive:

At this stage there appears to be no technical impediment to continue to upgrade the class to retain regional superiority … [A] life extension for Collins is feasible provided the detailed analysis is carried out and the funding in the Defence Industry Investment Plan is applied.

My preferred Plan B is to pursue the Collins LOTE with an eye to using it to prove technical solutions that could later be incorporated in a newly designed hull as a ‘Collins mark 2’. That’s not a new idea, and I wrote about it in a paper six years ago (excuse the title—that was evidently during my regrettable Latin phase). It has the advantage of not requiring a new hull and systems to be developed and proven at the same time. And, since we’ll need Collins around for a decade or more in any approach (including MMOTS), there’s no escaping work on the fleet.

Since ASPI’s charter is to provide alternative ideas, here’s one: we should get the Swedes involved in Collins work again. I know that won’t be popular in some quarters. The relationship got untidy last time, and such was the residual feeling around Canberra that Sweden didn’t make the cut for the SEA 1000 competition, despite having designed our current submarines. But time moves on, and Kockums and the Swedish submarine program are now in the hands of Saab, a company with a global footprint that includes a substantial and successful presence here in Australia.

Between ASC’s hard-earned knowledge about the Collins and the submarine design capability of Saab, we’d have both a nascent design capability (that, notably, we don’t have to pay for unless we need it) and relevant local shipyard experience to build a ‘son of Collins’ if Plan A doesn’t work out. And it’s all dual use—there’s a big overlap between this Plan B and work needed on the Collins LOTE. If we wanted to go an extra step, we could even invest in the production design work for a Collins 2.0. That would have the benefit of introducing competition into the future submarine design phase, and focus Naval Group on delivering value.

Navy Chief Tim Barrett: lethal navy crucial to deter attackers

Navy Chief Tim Barrett has warned that Australia’s new surface warship and submarine force must be powerful enough to strike blows to deter a distant enemy from attacking Australia.

In his address to ASPI’s annual White Ensign Dinner, Vice Admiral Barrett said that by 2025, it is expected that almost half of the world’s economic output will come from the Asia–Pacific region. It lies at the centre of the massive economic trading artery running from the Middle East, across the Indian Ocean, through the South China Sea, past Japan and on to North America.

Four of the world’s top defence spenders—the United States, China, Russia and India—are active in the region, Barrett said. ‘Many of the global challenges will increasingly be played out in our region.’

The navy chief said traditional challenges like state-on-state coercion and competition are on the rise and non-traditional threats are making their presence felt in profound ways.

‘Global terrorist networks are taking root in Southeast Asia, and Australia and its neighbours are all looking to work together to strengthen regional counterterrorism capacity. We will also need to respond to the effects of climate change and natural disasters’, Barrett said.

‘I expect that we will face challenges to our border security of increasing complexity and scale, whether they be from coordinated illegal fishing enterprises or from international criminal syndicates seeking to smuggle illegal migrants. And we will face these challenges in a faster paced environment, a more complex environment, and possibly against near peer competitors’, he said.

‘Advanced intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems will become more prevalent, ultimately reducing the effectiveness of stealth capabilities. We will face increased offensive cyber and space-based challenges which may be able to disable or degrade our infrastructure and operational networks.’

There will be more autonomous systems, such as unmanned combat vehicles, above and below the oceans, on land and in the air.

Barrett said that over the next two decades, other technological advances such as quantum computing, innovative manufacturing, hypersonics, and directed energy weapons are likely to bring weapons and systems into the region.

‘There has never before been a time when threats distant from our shores, whether they be from the sea, land or air, can so quickly affect our direct interests. Australia will need to be able to bring together a balanced, connected and integrated force that combines different land, air, sea, intelligence, electronic warfare, cyber and space capabilities so that we can apply more force, more rapidly and more effectively’, he said.

‘We need a balanced, connected and integrated force that can deliver lethality when required. Lethality is the key to our ability to wage war and, subsequently, the key to how we deter an attack on our interests.’

That’s why the navy, and the ADF as a whole, are being rebuilt and expanded, he said. The navy is moving back to being task-group oriented to make it more agile and responsive.

‘As the navy is expanded, we must be cognisant that we maintain our focus on core capabilities that will enable the navy in the future to apply decisive lethal force at the adversary’s point of maximum vulnerability, where the application of that lethal force makes the greatest strategic sense.’

Core capabilities are the ability to project, from a distance, power from the sea; the ability to impose unacceptable costs on an adversary; the ability to deliver targeted and decisive lethality; the ability to take decisions quickly and manoeuvre naval force with speed and flexibility; the ability to enhance survivability by ensuring that personnel are able to adapt doctrine and tactics to meet the needs of the moment; the ability to exploit and manipulate our strategic advantages deriving from our capacity to project power from the sea; ‘and finally, the ability to ensure, as a part of a coherent national force or an allied–coalition force, that we have the mass and the flexibility to deter and, if necessary, to dominate our adversary at sea’.

The future submarine project will a potent part of that mix. The navy chief rejected suggestions that the French project to build Australia’s 12 big new conventional submarines is set to fail. He said that ‘contrary to recent commentary, the project appears to me to be meeting its milestones’.

He was referring to a report in which a team of former senior public servants, businessmen and defence analysts headed by ANU professor and defence specialist Hugh White warned that the navy could be left without a submarine force for ‘a decade or two’ because the plan to design and build the new submarines was wildly ambitious. Naval Group of France, formerly DCNS, is the international partner to design the boats.

‘We have formal government-to-government agreements in place, a functioning design centre has been built in Cherbourg (by Australian tradespeople with Australian materials) and the Australian project team is filling it rapidly. The construction site in Osbourne is being secured and yard design is in progress’, Barrett said.

He said work has begun on the navy’s two new tankers and the first is expected to be delivered in 2019 and the second in 2020.

The evaluation of the tender for 12 offshore patrol vessels is complete and a decision is expected from the government later this year, Barrett said. ‘We are on track, with the construction of the first vessel to begin in 2018.’

Tenders for the navy’s nine new frigates are being evaluated and the process is on schedule for construction to commence in Adelaide in 2020.

The two giant assault ships, or landing helicopter docks, are in service ‘and have already fought their first battles (but these were mainly reputational ones and were with the media)’, Barrett said. An early problem identified with their propulsion pods was managed in a deliberate, disciplined and seaworthy manner and both ships are proving their utility, he said. ‘We have demonstrated that we are able to deploy task groups equipped with a wide range of capabilities from high-end warfighting to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.’

One of the LHDs, HMAS Adelaide, is leading the six-ship Joint Task Group, Indo-Pacific Endeavour 2017, on visits to Asian nations. Adelaide has army and air force elements on board. ‘This deployment will be Australia’s biggest coordinated task group operation since the early 1980s.’

Barrett said the six Collins-class submarines are performing very well, with four available at a time.

And just over a week ago, the navy’s most sophisticated warship, the air warfare destroyer HMAS Hobart, was commissioned.

‘Amid the complexity of all that is this ambitious shipbuilding plan, with all the challenges that big decisions bring, and with the ferocious debate that accompanies such potentially high-risk endeavours—the evidence is, we are getting on with things’, Barrett said.

‘So while there remains some uncertainty in how the final plan will unfold, and certainly there is some public criticism of what has been referred to as the veil of probity associated with ongoing commercial negotiations, there are, I believe, some clear indications of progress being made and there is clarity emerging around the future vision of the national shipbuilding enterprise’, he said.

‘We need to understand and remain vigilant to the fact that this shipbuilding stuff will be a medium- to high-risk venture for the next 30 years, until the full mantle of continuous shipbuilding is secured. It will require vision and resolve. And to sustain it will require a different approach to every problem.

‘But I believe it is not beyond us. I base this on the evidence of what has already occurred. And changes in behaviours of those involved.’

Barrett said that it is critical to unite the navy and the nation in a national endeavour to ensure success. It has to be recognised that the navy is an intrinsic national capability, intimately connected to the social, economic, industrial and educational drivers of national wellbeing—‘not just something you bring out in times of trouble’.

‘And if we are to harness the benefits and opportunities of the Defence White Paper and the national shipbuilding plan, there must be a fundamental shift in thinking about what the navy actually is, where it fits into our national architecture and how it relates to the national economic infrastructure.’

To have a naval force that is available, sustainable and affordable as well as lethal, there has to be a closer relationship between Defence and industry.

‘I think the actions we have taken over the past few years with regard to industry engagement have set a good foundation for making this recapitalisation a success over the decades to come’, Barrett said. ‘But it will require constant resolve towards an enterprise behaviour.’

The navy is already reaping benefits. ‘I have seen improvements in the way we (navy and industry together) manage not only the seaworthiness of our vessels, but the seaworthiness of our entire enterprise from the top down with the implementation of the Defence Seaworthiness Management System’, Barrett said.

The heart of the matter—choosing a combat management system for the future frigates

The Australian government is about to deliberate on the combat management system (CMS) for the navy’s future frigates. In the mix are Saab Australia’s 9LV, which is already working well on the RAN’s Anzac class frigates, and the US Navy’s Aegis system, a version of which is in the Hobart class air warfare destroyers (AWDs) that are now starting to enter service.

The question that people keep asking is ‘Which will be chosen?’ We think that’s the wrong question. A much better one is ‘How can we maximise capability?’ If Defence has addressed the problem that way and advised government accordingly, it’s possible that the answer will be ‘We’ll take both’. To see why, it’s useful to baseline the capability and advantages of the ‘competing’ (though, for reasons that will become clear, we’d rather say ‘complementary’) systems.

The Australian-designed and -built CEAFAR radar is the government’s preferred radar for SEA 5000. That’s a very sensible position—not for parochial reasons (heaven forbid that such reasoning could sneak into government naval shipbuilding policy)—but because it’s the highest-performing radar currently available. So far, it’s installed only on the Anzac-class frigates, tightly integrated with the 9LV CMS.

When the government sits down to deliberate, one of the most important things for it to inquire about is the relative efficacy of the 9LV/CEAFAR and Aegis in the areas of electronic warfare and short- to medium-range air defence. The Australian combination has been demonstrated in trials to be effective against sea skimming supersonic missiles, one of the most challenging air defence threats a vessel can face. All are indications are that the CEAFAR/9LV-equipped Anzacs currently have the world’s best air defence on surface combatants over short to medium ranges. We don’t have the classified data to confirm that, but the government should ask to see a direct comparison. Similarly, it should ask about the ability of the two competing CMS solutions to fully exploit the sophisticated capabilities of the CEAFAR radar.

Aegis also comes with some significant advantages. Unlike the Anzac air defence solution, which is currently limited to the approximately 50 km range of the evolved sea sparrow missile (ESSM), Aegis has an established layered defence capability out to the significantly longer range of the SM-2 weapon (upwards of 150 km), improving the vessel’s survivability against complex threats. At shorter ranges it uses the same ESSM weapons as the Anzacs, but it can select long-range weapons when appropriate.

The latest Aegis baseline 9 is a more modular system than previous versions, with much-improved hardware and software architectures, making it easier for a user to pick and choose among various capabilities. (The RAN is nonetheless getting baseline 8 in its brand-new AWDs, but that’s another story.) Among the modules are two that bring functionality not currently found on Australian vessels—cooperative engagement capability (CEC) and ballistic missile defence (BMD). There was no requirement for the Anzacs to have either of those, so they are not features of 9LV, though both could be included as part of a future growth path for the system. CEC and BMD are not requirements for the current SEA 5000 competition, but the government might reasonably want to know about future options to include them.

Raytheon’s CEC has been identified as a desirable capability for the future frigates (and for the ADF’s Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft), and for good reason, especially if interoperability with the USN is given high priority. CEC allows multiple surface combatants to jointly track targets and launch missiles remotely, increasing the chances of successfully shooting down the target. Similarly, ships can fire missiles at targets not visible to their own sensors that have been located by other networked platforms. As well as increasing the ADF’s own capabilities, CEC would also enable the possibility of sharing sensor and missile resources between American and Australian platforms. (That raises questions of sovereign control of assets, but the option would be there.)

If Australia decides to pursue a naval BMD capability—a possibility that looks more likely with each North Korean missile test—the USN’s Aegis solution is a natural fit. It’s not clear that BMD would be considered for the future frigates, which are intended to focus on anti-submarine warfare (ASW). But the contenders are all large vessels, so the potential will be there if the need is established beyond a possible BMD upgrade for the air warfare destroyers sometime in the 2020s. Adding BMD capability to the future frigates would almost certainly be more complex than for the AWDs, even if Aegis is at the core of the CMS. That’s because a cohesive BMD solution requires integration between the CMS, the radar, the interceptor missile and off-board sensors that can detect a ballistic missile early in its flight. Making a CEAFAR-equipped vessel BMD capable will require either a bespoke 9LV BMD solution or a high level of integration between CEAFAR and the Aegis CMS, neither of which have yet been done.

Aegis is a USN combat system, so it’s already integrated with all of the American weapons. That’s not the case if the 9LV is selected as the CMS—we’d own the integration of new USN weapons into our bespoke architecture. That’s not necessarily a problem, and there are certainly precedents—as demonstrated by the outstanding results of the 9LV/ESSM trials—but it’s an extra integration step. (We note that adding the CEAFAR radar into the mix will require a certification process for the weapon firing chain regardless of which CMS is in control.)

Of course, the SEA 5000 vessels are intended to be anti-submarine warfare (ASW) frigates first and foremost. In the Anzac frigates, the 9LV CMS interfaces directly with the sonar and other systems. The tight integration that has been achieved is beneficial for ASW operators, and there are good reasons to carry that forward into the future frigates. The underwater systems in the USN’s Aegis-equipped vessels are managed through a separate module that’s packaged as part of the Aegis suite, but is largely independent of the air warfare modes. A similar solution was found for Australia’s AWDs, for which Aegis handles radar management and air warfare, and a bespoke ‘Australian tactical interface’ (ATI) provides integration of a subsidiary combat management system. The ATI is responsible for controlling and processing data from some of the ship’s Australian-selected additions, including ASW sensors and decoy systems.

The table below summarises the current state of integration between the two CMS candidates and other systems. We’re aware that some risk reduction work that has been carried out in support of the SEA 5000 competitive evaluation process, but there’s no publicly-available information on the results. Based on what’s known, if the government were to choose either CMS exclusively, it’s likely that some capability would be traded off, extra integration work would become necessary, or—most likely—both.

CEAFAR radar ESSM SM-2/6 CEC BMD Hawklink RAN ASW systems Future USN weapons
9LV

×

×

×

×

Australian responsibility

Aegis

×

✓*

✓**

American responsibility

Key: ✓ = demonstrated  × = not demonstrated (* = via ASW module, ** = via ATI)

We wonder if there’s a hybrid approach that builds on the strengths of all of the systems on offer. The ATI solution on the AWDs and the modular nature of the Aegis architecture show that it’s possible to partition the tasks of combat management systems for different roles. So it might be possible to combine the proven world-class short- to medium-range CEAFAR/9LV/ESSM combination with the layered defence and long-range capabilities of Aegis solution. One way to do that might be to employ Aegis as a data and weapon management system, but share control of the radar. As has been shown in the highly successful Anzac frigate upgrade, the 9LV system can exploit the CEAFAR’s capabilities and can also manage the ASW sensors and other systems (Hawklink, electronic warfare, tactical datalinks, the ship’s gun etc.).

Of course, that’s easier said than done, and we’re well aware of some past unhappy experiences in systems integration. Before heading irrevocably down that path, some rigorous systems engineering work that follows on from the existing risk reduction work is required. But we think that CEA, Saab Australia and Lockheed Martin have all demonstrated the ability to make things work.

It’s an enticing prospect—Australia’s future frigates could become some of the most capable vessels in the world. And with Canada and the US both contemplating their own frigate requirements, there’s a chance to share technologies and networked capabilities across a five eyes community. Not least from the government’s point of view, producing a world-class solution with Australian components at its core would enhance the prospects exports of Australian IP and hardware in the form of CEAFAR and 9LV. The ANZAC ASMD outcome is good testament to the sovereign capability to develop, implement and integrate systems of equivalent complexity. For all those reasons, we think the government should be prepared to think flexibly about the full range of possibilities.

Talking to the chiefs: Tim Barrett (part 2)

Australia’s surface warships and submarines will, in future, be much more closely linked to allied vessels to provide a collective defence against increasingly lethal threats, Royal Australian Navy chief Tim Barrett tells The Strategist.

Discussing options and capabilities the revitalised fleet will bring, Vice Admiral Barrett says surface warships provide a meaningful visible presence in, for instance, protecting trade routes. ‘A navy must be able to demonstrate presence but also be capable of engaging and operating with others in the region—not just those you might consider to be future adversaries, but all others.’

Barrett says the issue then is to ensure vessels can operate freely against the sorts of threats being developed. Weapons being designed to attack surface ships are driving the shape, numbers, size and design of naval forces and, more importantly, the way the fleet will operate.

‘So I still think there’s a role for surface ships. While we still have trade routes around the world and the requirement for a surface ship to be able to support, engage and demonstrate an intent to allow that free flow of trade, I think the visible presence will still be there.’

The US naval concept of ‘distributed lethality’ is intended to deal with emerging threats to the fleet by arming and connecting every vessel in it to allow them to operate in contested waters as a much more lethal force, says Barrett. That will concentrate the mind of an adversary who may wish to attack a carrier group but who has to contend with the fact that all of the ships in a fleet could pose a lethal threat, making targeting much more difficult.

‘Each ship becomes more lethal,’ Barrett says. Distributed lethality could involve ships from various nations using their Aegis air defence systems to protect the fleet from every direction. ‘If we’re to design a fleet in this day and age, and if we acknowledge our alliance, we would certainly need to consider those elements, otherwise we’d be an orphan sitting in one part of the region and not being able to provide a meaningful contribution.’

Barrett says that even before the navy’s future frigate has been selected, a lot of work is already being done to establish infrastructure for its construction. ‘That’s being done knowing we haven’t finalised the selection of a particular type but there are certain aspects that will be generic in terms of design.

The government provided a very ambitious program—to cut steel by 2020, the navy chief says. ‘Doing a number of things in parallel provides an increased risk that must be managed. It’s a challenge but we knew that as soon as the date was set. But at the moment those things we told government we would do, are being done.’

From time to time it’s suggested that the short take-off and vertical landing version of the new joint strike fighter, the F-35B, could be bought to operate from the navy’s giant landing ships, or landing delicopter docks. The Spanish version of the LHD does operate British Harriers, so how feasible would it be for the RAN to do something similar?

The government’s been very clear in saying it would not do that, Barrett says. ‘If you ask me in practical terms what would it take, Britain had to modify its carriers to take the JSFs. I’d envisage that we’d have to do that as well so there would be a cost beyond the airframes. That’s just to operate them on deck.’

Barrett says it would be possible to fly the JSFs off the RAN’s landing ships if technical issues could be resolved. ‘But in practical terms, it’s a relatively small deck that we’ve got, with six spots for helicopters. And you would need to consider broadly what you were seeking to achieve with that number of aircraft.’

The RAAF plans to use its conventional take-off and landing F-35As as part of a networked force with tankers and the Wedgetail command and control aircraft. Barrett says it’s not clear what strategic advantage having jets aboard ships would bring to the navy.

‘As an aviator I’d say that would be nice to have. But as chief of the navy I’d ask you to explain what you are trying to achieve here.’ Having a relatively small number of jets would mean fewer helicopters to carry troops ashore. ‘If you turn the LHD into a fixed-wing carrier, then you’re completely changing the effect you’re trying to deliver and the nature of how you operate and defend that ship changes as well,’ Barrett says.

‘So could we put them in? We’d find a way. Should we put them in? I would like to see all of the strategic logic before I could then consider the advice I’d provide to government.’

Asked if the navy’s confident of finding, recruiting and training enough people to run its new ships, Barrett responds, ‘If we do what we’ve always done, the answer is, no.’ Drawing a capable workforce will require coordination from government, industry and the education system as a whole of nation project, he says.

‘There’s a good opportunity for us all to reconstruct how we recruit from school, how we educate, and develop the skills which will allow me to dip into a bigger pool to have people to go to sea. I envisage a lot more people moving from navy to industry and back to navy through their lives. I also see closer engagement with education departments to put purpose behind why people should be studying certain things.’ And an increasing number of naval ships are being manned by civilian crews, Barrett says.

Might Australia in the future employ unmanned surface warships? That’s possible, says Barrett, along with unmanned submarines and aircraft, but they’d be likely to work with manned vessels on specific tasks.

Talking to the chiefs: Tim Barrett (part 1)

 

Australia’s massive shipbuilding program must become a strongly focused national effort involving government, Defence and industry, says Chief of Navy Tim Barrett. ‘It will only work if it’s a national enterprise, a national endeavour’, Vice Admiral Barrett tells The Strategist.

Barrett says the government’s decision to build many new warships in Australia has launched the nation on a naval ‘build and sustain’ process. ‘I think that’s a sovereign capability we should seek’, he says, ‘but I’m not naive to the challenges we will need to work through’.

Barrett says:

Shipbuilding is a combination of many things. It has tentacles which spread well beyond a dockyard in South Australia or Perth. It’s not just the workers in the dockyard. It’s the design and production capability for all of the sub-components, the education process to deliver those with the capacity to design and build in-country, the industry process and the financial process within governments—federal and state—and the research capabilities to develop what’s needed.

Early this year, Barrett published a detailed essay setting out where he wanted to take the navy. He wrote when the nation was being tossed on a political storm, originating in South Australia, over whether warships should be built here at all or simply bought ‘off the shelf’.

I felt the need to put a narrative out there that hopefully defines some of those things which need to be considered that go beyond a political issue or an industry issue. I’m trying to have people look at a 30-year horizon because the task of continuous build does not happen overnight and it doesn’t even happen within a political cycle.

It’s important to settle people’s minds on what it might look like. I felt that the navy over the last couple of years had been concentrating more on what’s happened in the past, or in being reactive to issues which have arisen, and there was a need to promote why it was happening and what was likely to happen in the future.

This is me as Chief of Navy telling our sailors and officers why I think the navy is what it is and trying to set a theme for everyone within navy to work towards a common outcome and to understand why.

Barrett says there was always a need to weigh the purely economic idea that Australia could buy warships from overseas without the cost of developing and sustaining its own industry against the view that the nation should have its own self-contained industry.

There’s been a lot of debate, particularly through the defence white paper process, and reports by the RAND Corporation and others, and some pretty poor experiences in terms of the air warfare destroyers, where initial high costs of establishment and high production costs caused you to think, is it really worth it?

Barrett says a successful continuous shipbuilding program will see the nation 30 years from now in possession of highly sophisticated shipyards that allow us to design, build and sustain warships.

‘It’ll require a workforce we can sustain which will have been trained and gained experience through that entire period.’ A range of government departments, not just Defence, will sustain the yards and the industry and all of the supply chains that go with it, the navy chief says.

‘It will also drive the way we do capability development, because we may be building ships for 20 years rather than 30 years as we now do, and that might change the entire upkeep cycle and refit regime and half-life upgrades.’ The design of a ship is likely to change because of that continuous build process, and the rate at which ships are delivered may depend not just on the navy’s need for replacements but on the need to sustain a strategic industry, he says.

I’m going to have to teach my people to think about how we deliver a warfighting effect based on those new priorities. Currently we build ships that might be sustained for 35 years, knowing that halfway through we are going to have to spend an extraordinary amount of money on a refit or a life extension. How we manage our combat systems is driven by that thought process.

That could now be completely different in a continuous build because it will be part of the vessel’s original design parameters. Barrett says that while a design is still to be chosen for the navy’s nine future frigates, Defence will start planning their replacement within five years of work starting on the first of them.

We are already considering everything from the drumbeat of when they are to be delivered to our ability to update the ships and refresh the combat systems. If you have that capacity with the continuous build and an industry that is able to do that, then you are able to make far better decisions on replacements of individual hulls and the combat system. You can make design decisions now about whether you’ll be operating that ship for 20 years or 30 years.

In the past, the sustainment and technical integrity of the fleet were poorly managed, says Barrett. ‘It’s more difficult and more expensive to sustain these ships in their later years.’

Continuous build will bring new options for designing and building ships.

We’ll have an industrial capacity to experiment, to consider different options. We might be building a larger number of smaller vessels, which might flow from how the United States is looking at certain things at the moment.

If you don’t even have the industry to do that, then it makes those sorts of elements very expensive and very difficult to imagine how you might do it.