Tag Archive for: policymaking

Economists and strategists

A couple of weeks back, ASPI hosted a half-day meeting between economists and strategists. The goal was to explore how the two groups can cooperate in a public policy sense. It turned out to be a lively and interesting afternoon. As a scene setter, I spoke on what I saw as the similarities and difference between the two disciplines and also on the opportunities for collaboration. This post is a summary of what I said.

The core goal of public policy is very simple; we desire more good things and less bad things. Economists and strategists largely sit on opposite sides of this dichotomy. Economists seek to arrange society so that we can have more good things than would otherwise be the case. In contrast, strategists try to mitigate the risk of a particularly nasty class of bad things by reducing their likelihood and consequence.

The demarcation isn’t absolute. Economists worry a lot about economic stability (which is about avoiding bad things) and strategists take regard of the advantageous spin-offs from defence investment (which is about having more good things). Notwithstanding such exceptions, economists are mostly concerned with making the world a better place while strategists want to stop it from becoming a worse place.

Economics and strategy (in the form of strategic studies and the like) are both well established in our universities. But, while both fields produce credentialed experts at a rapid pace, it’s only in economics that formal training really counts for something. While it would be extraordinary for a non-economist to head the Reserve Bank or Federal Treasury, it’s routine for strategy to be practised by people with little or no formal academic background in the field. When was the last time a Secretary of the Department of Defence (or a Chief of the Defence Force) had an academic qualification in strategy? Read more

Domestic and international challenges for the second Obama Administration

Image courtesy of The White House.

On 6 November 2012, President Barack Obama won a convincing election victory. The Democratic incumbent beat the Republican challenger, Governor Mitt Romney, carrying virtually all of the battleground states that were the subject of serious contest. Only in Indiana and North Carolina, did the President lose Electoral College votes over 2008. This was a remarkable outcome given the sluggish performance of the US economy. The final result was Obama/Biden 332 to Romney/Ryan 206.

But while the Senate remained in Democratic hands, thanks to some poor Republican candidates in states such as Missouri, Virginia and Indiana, the House of Representatives is still under Republican control. This means that there’s still the potential for the politics of gridlock to dominate Washington, DC. In this, the first of two posts, I’ll comment on some of the domestic challenges facing Obama. These are important to Australia because of the impact they potentially have on US defence spending.

However, the President having been returned lends momentum to the Obama White House in pursuing an agenda which moves to avoid the ‘fiscal cliff’ which looms as of 1 January. This is a process mandated by law, by which over $600 billion is cut from the federal budget across the board unless Congress can agree upon a budget. Read more