Underestimating Latin America’s trade opportunities and transnational organised threats may compromise Australia’s economic and security agenda. It’s time for Australian businesses, government and public to take a closer look at this dynamic region.
Latin America has progressed towards better living standards and international relevance. However, progress has been impeded by civil wars, social disparity and international criminal activities. The struggle hasn’t been easy, and it’s far from over.
Still, there’re bright spots that’re drawing attention. A few years ago many called Colombia a failing state; many now see it as a driving economy in the region and an attractive emerging market.). Read more
https://aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/10130806/ASPI-Logo.png00markohttps://aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/10130806/ASPI-Logo.pngmarko2014-12-18 01:44:422014-12-18 01:44:42Latin America matters to Australia
The effective management of the fish stocks in the Pacific is important for the food security, healthy ocean ecosystems and livelihood security for those regional states. In many ways, sustainable fisheries help to underpin regional political stability.
This week the annual meeting of the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission opened in Cairns, where there’s likely to be some disputes between the island countries and distant water fishing interests. The WCPFC has 25 members, including the European Union as a group, and operates by consensus.
Anthony Bergin, Hayley Channer and Sam Bateman’s recent Strategy Report ‘Terms of engagement…’ touches on a problem that’s defied strategic planners worldwide. Nations tend to know how to intervene militarily when it’s unavoidable. Doctrine lays out the phases of a classical campaign from the assembly and preparation of forces through decisive operations, the stabilisation of the situation and its transition to whatever ‘post-conflict’ reality emerges. Recent campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan haven’t worked too smoothly in the latter phases, but at least there is an established framework for planning and, once the government commits itself to the intervention, all its agencies generally get with the program.
Much harder is planning and coordinating all the things that should be done before the intervention becomes necessary. The military term of art for this is ‘Phase Zero’, consisting of those things done (1) to make an intervention unnecessary in the first place and (2) failing that, to ensure that everything is poised for a successful campaign (Phases One to X) to return the situation to Phase Zero as quickly as possible.
Optimal Phase Zero planning has largely eluded Western countries because it involves efforts from across government. Military forces have strong planning cultures and elaborate processes for what they do, but these only affect a few of the things that must happen in Phase Zero. Some of the most effective measures for preventing serious crises, such as diplomacy, international aid and foreign institutional reform are not within the military orbit: the agencies responsible for them have their own ideas and are often jealous of their autonomy or fearful for their resource levels. Phase Zero seems to demand a degree of coordination of which bureaucratic cabinet governments are not normally capable, at least in the nominal ‘peacetime’ that characterises this Phase. All countries discipline their policy processes and bureaucracies when sufficiently threatened, as Australia did in the Second World War, but otherwise we prefer looser management. Read more
https://aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/10130806/ASPI-Logo.png00markohttps://aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/10130806/ASPI-Logo.pngmarko2013-08-27 04:29:162013-08-27 04:29:16Phase zero planning for Australia
Richard Herr’s recent item on intra-regional relationships in the Pacific is a timely contribution to this discussion.
The past, present and future of regionalism and sub-regionalism in this part of the world are topics of endless fascination but they have significant political (including geopolitical) and economic implications as well. It’s an environment that’s both fluid and fast changing at numerous levels. At the beginning of the year, I predicted this would be an issue of significance during 2012 and so it has proved. This isn’t particularly surprising and, for what it’s worth, I predict it is going to be a ‘hot topic’ next year as well.
Here I’d like to briefly pick up on a couple of points Richard made in his piece. I think there is more to add about the Fiji situation, about sub-regionalism more generally and about the future role of the Pacific Islands Forum.
First, I think it’s worth mentioning that, while the re-entry of Fiji into the PACP ‘family’ was indeed significant, it was one in a series of steps that have been ongoing for a considerable period—in fact, since Fiji was suspended from the Forum. It’s necessary to remember that while Fiji might be coming in from the cold, it remains suspended from both the Pacific Islands Forum and the Commonwealth. However, what’s particularly fascinating here is the way Fiji has manoeuvred and positioned itself in recent years, regionally and internationally. If and when Fiji’s suspension from the Forum is lifted, it’s plausible that its significance will be more symbolic than meaningful, either politically or economically. But if Fiji does make a reappearance at the Forum, it will be from a position of political strength, having not only cemented but enhanced relationships within the region and developed new ones in a whole range of places. In addition, Fiji’s accession to the chair of the G77 grouping earlier this year provides one more plank in a carefully constructed raft of geopolitical and diplomatic strength, which will not be conceded lightly, if at all. Read more
https://aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/10130806/ASPI-Logo.png00markohttps://aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/10130806/ASPI-Logo.pngmarko2012-12-06 03:16:512012-12-06 03:16:51Pacific (sub)regionalism – where to next?
