Tag Archive for: Middle East & North Africa

The post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment

In 2019, the global Salafi-jihadi architecture is very different from the one that emerged in September 2001, when transnational terrorism burst on to the international scene, or July 2014, when ISIL controlled more than 34,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq and thousands of young men and women were flocking to be part of its ‘caliphate’.

Many of the leaders of the Salafi-jihadi movement are gone. Some, like Osama bin Laden and Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, have been killed, and many others have been captured or are in hiding. And yet, despite having no territory and having lost many of their leaders, both al-Qaeda and ISIL continue to pose a threat to the maintenance of international peace and security. In fact, one could argue that they pose more of a threat today, as the structure of the groups has moved from integrated to fragmented, making command and control more tenuous.

In 2018, there were at least 66 Salafi-Jihadi groups around the world, the same number as in 2016 and three times as many as there were in 2001. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has pointed out that in 2018 there were at least 218,000 Salafi-jihadis and allied fighters around the world—a 270% increase.1 These figures indicate that, despite 18 years of combat and the spending of trillions of dollars, we’re nowhere near ending the jihadist threat, as the ideology continues to resonate with people.

This Strategic Insight reviews the post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment, focusing on two issues: the franchising strategy of al-Qaeda and Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the evolving threat of online messaging. I highlight a change in the threat posed by Salafi-jihadis to Australia; it’s now less a ‘top-down’ threat than a ‘bottom-up’ one and emanates from homegrown individuals whose links with and understanding of Salafist-jihadism are minimal. Consequently, I offer three sets of recommendations for how Australia’s official counterterrorism community should change its strategies.

Preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa: the role of the mining sector

Terrorism and violent extremism remain significant threats to international peace and security. Although few countries have been immune, Africa has been particularly susceptible. Weak institutions, porous borders, inadequately trained or ill-equipped security forces, historical grievances and a lack of economic opportunities have created conditions for extremist ideologies to grow and persist in parts of the continent.

“The global effort to prevent violent extremism can’t succeed without the private sector. This report explains why, and how to incorporate this essential partner.”

Dr Khalid Koser MBE
Executive Direct
Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF)

To date, most counterterrorism efforts have been security and intelligence led, with an emphasis on military and kinetic strategies to ‘defeat’ terrorism. Over the past decade in particular, global efforts have also focused on strategies for preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE), particularly on the role of international institutions, governments, regional organisations and communities. While several international frameworks for counterterrorism, for example the UN Secretary-General’s Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism, have recognised the important role of the private sector in prevention measures, there’s been little research and analysis exploring the specificity and mechanisms of private sector involvement. This report by ASPI, in cooperation with Hedayah, uses a case study of the mining sector in Africa to examine how the private sector does and can engage in P/CVE efforts.

This report explores the correlation between the drivers of violent extremism and the different activities undertaken throughout a mining project’s life cycle in order to identify potential risks and opportunities. It examines the role of the mining sector in actions to address violent extremism, identifying preliminary lessons and best practices from the research. Finally, it provides recommendations for mining companies, the industry, governments and communities on approaches to engage mining companies in P/CVE efforts.

The report is accompanied by a second paper that draws on the findings and examines how the Australian mining sector should step up efforts aimed at preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa. See Preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa: Mining and Australia’s interests.

Revising the UN Peacekeeping Mandate in South Sudan: Maintaining Focus on the Protection of Civilians

Civil war has raged in South Sudan for two years. Horrific atrocities continue to be committed against the civilian population by both primary parties to the conflict as the United Nations mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has struggled to protect civilians within and beyond its protection of civilians (POC) sites.

This report by the Stimson Center and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute examines the challenges UNMISS has faced in its efforts to protect civilians from physical violence despite the priority and focus of the revised mandate that was adopted following the outbreak of civil war in December 2013.

This report offers recommendations for stakeholders to consider as part of the upcoming mandate review that will take place in December 2015, as well as lessons for future reviews.

The QDR: a future of hybrid warfare?

The latest formal statement of US defence policy, the QDR (Quadrennial Defense Review), plays down sweeping ambition in order to remain focused on the tasks immediately at hand—Iraq and above all, Afghanistan.  And it sees a future of ‘hybrid’ warfare, likely to involve a diversity of actors and to blur the traditional distinction between inter-state conflict and protracted counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency operations.  It suggests the US will be looking for more from its allies, including Australia.

Tag Archive for: Middle East & North Africa

Iain MacGillivray was interviewed by the Georgetown University podcast Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues

On November 16th, ASPI DC Analyst, Iain MacGillivray was interviewed by the Georgetown University podcast Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues. The episode, China leans on pragmatism in the Middle East, unpacks the complexities of China’s perception by Middle Eastern states and explored the notion that China might displace the regional security role played by the US.