In its first few months in office, a combination of rookie errors and challenging circumstances gave the Abbott government’s international policy a shaky start. The PM’s declaration that Japan was Australia’s best friend in Asia showed a lack of diplomatic finesse, while the government’s handling of the Snowden leaks made something of a mockery of the Coalition’s intentions to prioritise good relations with its near neighbours. Critics who’d labelled Abbott out of his depth in foreign and strategic policy seemed to be on to something.

After nearly seven months in office, the Coalition’s foreign and strategic policy is beginning to coalesce. Abbott’s remarkably successful three-country tour of Northeast Asia shows the government’s approach to Asia is beginning to take firmer shape. In particular, we can now see clearly the course it’s trying to navigate in its dealings with Asia’s major powers. Read more

It was submarine-mania at ASPI this week with our international conference ‘The Submarine Choice’ held 9–10 April. And we’d like to extend a big thanks to all—speakers, sponsors, participants and venue staff—who made it a big success. Our speakers included the Minister for Defence Senator David Johnston (full speech here), Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Ray Griggs (full speech here), Commander US Pacific Fleet Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr (full speech here) and Commander Submarine Force US Pacific Fleet Rear Admiral Phillip G. Sawyer (pictured), who said:

The presence of our #submarines in #Guam should be taken as a sign we are here to stay: @PacificCommand's RADM Sawyer #SubCon14 #rebalance

— ASPI (@ASPI_org) April 9, 2014

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Tony Abbott’s first trip to North Asia as Prime Minister will have a strong business and trade flavour. He will be accompanied by a phalanx of business heavies and state and territory leaders. The business focus is appropriate: Japan, South Korea and China represent 40% of Australia’s total two-way trade, worth over $250 billion. But much of the background atmosphere of the visit will be connected to the region’s increasingly sharp-edged strategic competition. Relations between China and Japan and South Korea and Japan are as poor as they have been in a generation. Territorial disputes over rather underwhelming rocks and islands pit increasingly assertive military and para-military forces against each other, fuelled by social-media driven nationalism. Most recently, the MH370 disaster has shown the ineffectiveness of regional cooperation. North Asia is an increasingly bolshy place and therefore a rather difficult destination for a newish Prime Minister.

How can Tony Abbott steer Australia’s interests through those choppy shoals? The Prime Minister’s late March address to the Asia Society in Canberra sets out his desired parameters for the visit. As expected the emphasis is heavily on trade and on the mutually beneficial value of maintaining stability as an essential foundation for growth. There is no reference to Japan as being Australia’s ‘best friend in Asia’, rather the more tightly-scripted line that ‘Australia’s friendship with Japan has been one of the most mutually beneficial bilateral relationships in global history.’ On China, the PM says: ‘It’s hard to overstate the importance and the strength of Australia’s relationship with China.’ So the speech carefully avoids language which might imply a ranking of Australian regard. Abbott says: ‘My message is that making new friends doesn’t mean losing old ones.’ That’s tough when the old friend and the new friend don’t get along, but on this visit a key aim will be to avoid giving the impression that Australia will concede on one relationship in order to please another. Read more

Today marks the third anniversary of the 9.0 magnitude earthquake that struck northeastern Japan, triggering a tsunami that caused widespread damage, including the meltdown of three of the six reactors at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Only about 100 people died in the earthquake itself, (because of the earthquake-resistant design of many buildings), but almost 20,000 people lost their lives in the tsunami. It was also the most expensive disaster in human history, causing losses of $360 billion. As we remember Japan’s terrible losses, today’s anniversary also reminds us that the Asia-Pacific is the most disaster-prone area in the world.

On the weekend I was at a workshop in Singapore organised by the US National Bureau of Asian Research and the Japan Center for International Exchange on regional disaster management. It was part of a project to develop a US–Japan alliance approach to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), badged by the sponsors as the ‘Strategic Assistance’ concept. I was asked to give my views on the proposed concept of closer US–Japan HADR operations in south and Southeast Asia. Read more

Last month, the Japanese government released the country’s first National Security Strategy (NSS). For Australia, this strategy is of considerable interest now that Japan’s seen as our ‘best friend in Asia’ and a strong ally. To others, the document is important given ongoing disputes between Japan and China. It covers a range of issues, but China clearly dominates current Japanese security thinking and is really what the NSS is all about.

Like its American equivalent (PDF), the Japanese NSS adopts a grand strategy approach. The ‘ends’ sought are to stop China from changing the present international order in Northeast Asia. The ‘way’ is a denial grand strategy that tries to shift the relative power balance to be more in Japan’s favour. The ‘means’ are through a whole-of-government approach that favours the diplomatic, military and informational instruments of national power. In terms of resourcing, the NSS stresses building legitimacy and strengthening Japan’s soft power.

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