When Australia thinks strategy, it quickly comes to Indonesia.

So it was when the Howard Government was mulling the 2000 Defence White Paper. The National Security Committee of Cabinet was grilling the defenceniks: ‘If Indonesia can’t invade us, why should we buy all these military toys?’

One official produced a map, pointed to the archipelago and island chain arcing across Australia’s north, and asked: ‘What do you see?’

‘That’s Indonesia.’

‘Yes, sir, today it’s Indonesia. Just think what it’d mean if Indonesia broke up and instead this map showed three new Bangladeshes and a couple of new oil-rich Bruneis.’ Read more

Much has been written of late about the potential for Australian citizens to go to the Middle East and take up arms with one militant group or another. Recent commentary about an Is­lamic State fighter, who appears to be the sec­ond Aus­tralian to carry out a sui­cide bomb­ing in a Shia-dom­i­nated dis­trict near the cen­tre of Bagh­dad, is chilling. Instead of delivering long-desired enlightenment to the region, the Arab Spring has in part unleashed forces that contribute to the current spiral of violence and instability—with effects felt as far afield as the Asia-Pacific.

We need to respond—in a measured way—to the actions of Australian citizens who no longer feel they owe their first duty to Australia and its people. But, equally, we must guard against exaggerating and sensationalising this issue for three important reasons: first because the threat is in reality quite small; second because we don’t want to draw even more (usually) young hot heads to the cause; and finally, because we have relatively strong institutional structures to address the threat. Read more

This week’s big story was, of course, Indonesia’s presidential election on 9 July. For an excellent wrap of the day’s events as seen via social media, check out this AIYA post. So far from the quick count, it looks like Jakarta governor Joko Widodo has emerged the winner, but former Kopassus commander Prabowo Subianto has refused to concede defeat. The confusion has resulted partly from some polls that show the former general ahead, despite the majority of well-respected polling outlets giving the nod to Jokowi by a margin of 4–5%. The Electoral Commission (KPU) will hand down its ruling on 22 July, but the matter could still go to the constitutional courts.

If Jokowi secures the presidency, what can we expect from his foreign policy? Here’s a useful overview by Colin Brown in which he suggests that Jokowi’s ‘strong position on maritime matters generally in the region would sound warning bells [with China]’. On ABC’s special program The World: Indonesia Votes (watch it in full here or by topic here), I noted that Australia would be important to Indonesia, but ASEAN would always come first. Read more

The fallout and back-and-forth between China and America has continued after last week’s announcement by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder of indictments against five Chinese military officers for ‘serious cybersecurity breaches’. (If you missed the news, the ABC had a solid run-down on developments, including an interview with ICPC’s Toby Feakin.) The charges represent a major change of strategy and policy for the Obama administration as it seeks to hold China accountable for what it sees as a cyber espionage campaign targeting American intellectual property. China hit back at claims that its government and military had been involved in the cyber theft of trade secrets, insisting rather that it had been a victim of US spying, name-dropping privacy-warhorse Edward Snowden to make their point.

The evidence levelled against the Chinese shows just how quickly the sands can shift on cyber matters: ICPC’s Simon Hansen concluded that ‘straight-faced deniability is no longer the smoke screen it once was’, while Thomas Rid noted that the indictment sets ‘a new bar for future attribution reports’. Peter Singer of Brookings has also turned in a comprehensive interview to Vox on the implications of the US move on cyber espionage. Read more

It’s ANZAC Day today, when our nation commemorates those who have given their lives or suffered in wars, conflicts and peacekeeping operations. The day itself—25 April—marks the anniversary of the first major military action fought by Australian and New Zealand Forces during the First World War. ANZAC Day begins with a Dawn Service at war memorials around the country, which serves as a reminder of the dawn landing on Gallipoli in 1915.

If you’re interested in Australia’s more recent commitments to conflict zones overseas, the Australian War Memorial’s collection includes a recently-unveiled Afghanistan exhibition that blends traditional items like military equipment with other media like sketches, artwork and video. There’s more information on the AWM site as well as 28 video interviews with mostly ADF personnel, sharing their experiences with Afghanistan.

For a more detailed analysis of how Gallipoli became one of the bloodiest catastrophes, check out Eliot A. Cohen and John Gooch’s book Military Misfortunes: the anatomy of failure in war which has a chapter on WWI.

Shifting now to broader strategic trends, this RSIS Commentary by Sofiah Jamil (PDF) explores the future of nuclear energy in Southeast Asia. If nuclear energy has a future in the region, governments need to encourage a culture of nuclear safety backed up by improved governance structures, argues Jamil. Read more