Tag Archive for: Indonesia

Searching for trust with Indonesia

In the fading hours of a golden sunset on Selong Belanak beach, Lombok.This post has been adapted from a recent ASPI panel discussion ‘Australia and Indonesia: getting back on track’. The full video of the event is available here

Notwithstanding the evident abilities of our foreign service officers—and they are considerable—Australia’s politicians aren’t natural diplomats. The recent imbroglio regarding Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran put on display Tony Abbott’s and Julie Bishop’s lack of international relationship management skills. Nor were Indonesian President Joko Widodo or his Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi any better.

For the sad truth is that government-to-government relations are conducted at the tactical level, with little evidence of a long-term strategy.

Our bilateral relationship with Jakarta tends to be driven by the vagaries of events, incidents and issues rather than the pursuit of common interests or long-term goals.

Three attitudes characterise Australia’s approach to Indonesia. First, we have a strong sense of Indonesia’s ‘otherness’—a trait identified by Ratih Hardjono in her insightful 1992 book Suku Putihnya Asia: Perjalanan Australia Mencari Jati Dirinya (the White Tribe of Asia: Australia’s Journey to Find its Identity). Second, there’s little sensitivity to the cultural dynamics. For Australia, everything is black and white, whereas for Indonesia there are only shades of gray. And, finally, the instinct of Australian politicians is to play to the domestic audience. Hence the megaphone as Australia’s preferred diplomatic instrument.

And four attitudes characterise Indonesia’s approach to Australia. First, Indonesia is uncertain about what it is and what it stands for. Self-doubt is a national trait. Second, there’s an evident tendency to national introspection. Third, continual suspicion regarding Australia’s motives, to the point of paranoia. And finally, the consequent emergence of a vocal and xenophobic nationalism. Australians are bule (the equivalent of ‘honky’), which has distinct racist overtones.

Among the Jakarta elite, the knockdown nature of Australian politics is just another symptom of the fact that Australians are kurang ajar—Indonesian for ‘boorish—with little appreciation for subtlety. And Julie Bishop’s confession that she exchanged heated words with her Indonesian counterpart only served to reinforce that impression. Halus (meaning ‘refined’) isn’t a term that Indonesians normally associate with Australia.

The core problem in the bilateral relationship is the absence of trust. Generally speaking, governments are not good at building trust, principally because they are more transactional than transformative, driven by the immediate rather than the important, and by the ephemeral rather than substantial long-term goals.

Trust between nations is hard to build, because it is not a consequence of personal relationships between political leaders, but is largely dependent on the strength and integrity of the national institutions—the judicial system, the financial system, the parliament and other representative institutions including the media.

Strong institutions reflect high levels of social capital, and actually contribute to the further generation of social capital.

Australian governments need to focus more on working with Indonesia to strengthen its national institutions. A great KPI for Australia would be to cooperate with Indonesia to lift its Corruption Perception Index from 107th in the world to, say, 50th (equal to Malaysia). And just in case anyone feels smug, Australia ranks 11th—after New Zealand (2nd) and Singapore (7th).

The goal of enhancing the integrity and transparency of the Indonesian armed forces (the TNI) has long driven Australia’s approach to the difficult issue of bilateral military relations. To the extent that the TNI remains subordinate to the Indonesian Parliament, and that it accepts the major premises of civil–military relationship management, Australia’s security is actually enhanced.

But we do need a broader view of ‘security’ if we are to build a stronger and more functional bilateral relationship over time. National security is essentially an artefact of essential internal factors—human security (both personal and community), social security (effective safety nets that reduce social unrest), economic security, the rule of law and the exercise of fundamental freedoms—and critical external factors that derive from a rules-based international system.

If there’s one area in which Australia and Indonesia should cooperate in the security and economic interests of both countries, it’s climate change. This would be low cost/high yield investment. Increasing sea levels and changes in ocean acidity and salinity will have a profound impact on archipelagic states. Work on both mitigation and abatement would reap good returns.

But what has the Australian government done instead? At a time when we are firing rockets into vehicles operated by the ISIS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of over $1bn per year, we cut the development assistance budget.

Of course, the government would be right to say that trust cannot be bought. But it can be invested in. To do so requires strategy and constancy, qualities that have been sadly absent from the Australia–Indonesia relationship over the past decade or so. Indonesia is too important to Australia for things to continue to drift.

A calm and unhurried approach to Indonesia

Meditation at Borobudur, Indonesia.

This post has been adapted from a recent ASPI panel discussion ‘Australia and Indonesia: getting back on track’. The full video of the event is available here

To get things back on track, Australia needs to regain perspective, some of which has been lost in recent months amidst the understandable angst caused by the moves to execute Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran.

Why do I talk about a loss of perspective?

First, because, strong as our feelings about the impending executions were, was the withdrawal of our ambassador wise? This was the first time we have taken such a step in relation to Indonesia, and it suggests that the executions were a bigger issue for Australia than our shooting war with Indonesia during Konfrontasi, the Balibo murder of Australian journalists, or other issues where we’ve had serious differences on matters touching on profound Australian interests. That to me does not ring true.

Second, I think that Australia, though for the best of reasons, allowed the issue to get out of hand. We started well, making high-level representations with real seriousness of intent and frequency, and there’s no doubt that the views of the Prime Minister, senior ministers and the parliament were registered at the highest levels of the Indonesian government. Nor should we overlook the effect of such activity on the groundswell of opinion in Indonesia against the death penalty. But at some point, the Australian megaphone was brought out, and we came up with a series of proposals that didn’t have the slightest chance of success. They also seemed increasingly desperate and in some cases counter-productive: offering to pay for the costs of life imprisonment for the two men; offering to repatriate Indonesian criminals; accusing Indonesia of double standards (a well-merited point of view but not one best calculated to sway opinions in a period of political heat). Our actions stirred up feelings in Indonesia, which took to grandstanding moves like the over-the-top prisoner transfer from Bali to Java and statements, some of them outrageous, from a range of ministers and parliamentarians.

As for the future, it’s not, of course, the first time our two countries have got into this sort of disagreement. We’ve had it in recent years over East Timor, Papuan asylum seekers, illegal fishing, boat towbacks, cattle exports and spying allegations, among others. And we’ve found ways to move on, impelled not by a search for improved relations but by the need to pursue our many national interests with Indonesia. That’s what we need to do now, and it’s a good thing that Julie Bishop has been reported in recent days as saying that it’s time to move on.

What should that entail?

First, our approach should, and I have no doubt will, be based on an assessment of our national interest.

Second, our ambassador should return soon. There’s no point in prolonging his absence, as this would only throw up the need for some additional rationale for keeping him longer. As it is now, he has had the chance to consult the government and should return in a low-key way to get on with his job in Jakarta. No further explanation would be needed.

Third, I don’t think that Australia should become hyper-active in trying to get things onto an even keel again. It’s best to keep out of Indonesia’s face, while getting on with all of our necessary and worthwhile ongoing activities there and looking to the resumption of other contacts in good time. For example, the postponed business delegation led by Andrew Robb could be planned for some time later; contacts on trade, aid, security and other issues should continue; and we should, without any sense of urgency, think about when it might be propitious to pursue senior face-to-face encounters.

In short, it should be an unhurried and calm approach based on national interest. Our Foreign Minister’s recent comments seem to be taking that approach, and the tone coming from Jakarta in recent days, including in response to the announcement of Australian aid reductions, seems to be encouraging and consistent with such a line.

At the same time, I sound a note of caution for the future, based on wider considerations than the recent disagreements over executions. It’s unrealistic to think that we will, any time soon, return to the sort of partnership with Indonesia exemplified by our joint initiatives over the last decade on issues like regional people movement, illegal fishing, disaster relief or counterterrorism, or by our agreements to hold annual meetings of senior leaders. Some of that joint work, for example on counterterrorism, will certainly continue. But the Yudhoyono years are now decidedly behind us and we don’t have, in President Jokowi, a leader who is so disposed to make allowances for Australian sensitivities and priorities, or instinctively well-disposed to the West in general. Indeed, Jokowi doesn’t seem to have a strong interest of the SBY type in foreign relations, apart from economic ones.

Despite the fractiousness evident on both sides during our recent election campaigns and subsequently, neither country appears now to have an interest in putting more fuel on the fire. Certainly, it’s difficult to see what we might hope to achieve by prolonging a stand-off. We do have many elements which work in ways conducive to our long-term interests in Indonesia, in areas as diverse as security cooperation, multilateral arrangements in the Asia–Pacific and the new Colombo Plan. We should get on with these, seeking to develop them further where we can and where it’s in our interest to do so.

An optimist’s toast for Australia and Indonesia

The panel at ASPI's event

This post has been adapted from a recent ASPI panel discussion ‘Australia and Indonesia: getting back on track’. The full video of the event is available here

As a born optimist, I share Benjamin Franklin’s sentiment—misquoted yet true—that beer and wine are proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy. Further, I submit, champagne proves that God has an elegant sense of humour.

Take this as a conceptual framework for Australia–Indonesia relations. Optimism tempered by hangovers.

Making Australia and Indonesia neighbours shows the Almighty’s droll side. Talk about yin and yang, chalk and cheese, the odd couple of Asia. This relationship could drive you to drink.

As Indonesia’s President said in Canberra in 2005:

‘Our relations are so complex and unique that it can be pulled in so many different directions, and it can go right as often as it can go wrong.’

Indonesia can direct Australia’s regional dreams or dominate its nightmares. Just as Papua New Guinea shapes the way Australia thinks about the South Pacific, Indonesia frames Australia’s view of Southeast Asia.

But—and here’s the optimist reaching for the glass—our nightmares about Indonesia tend not to arrive. We get more champagne than we anticipate, or often acknowledge.

On this, see the thoughts of one the smartest people around here. Be not misled by Rod Lyon’s gentle, delphic smile; sharpness lurks. And Rod offers a typically to-the-point judgement on how Indonesia has answered more of our dreams, despite those nightmares.

First, here’s his setup:

‘The basic trajectory of Indonesia—towards the consolidation of democratic institutions and steady economic growth—bodes well for the future bilateral relationship. Moreover, Australia and Indonesia are the two largest powers within the sub-region. But our relationship is still a fraught one, frequently marred by controversy and misunderstanding. And the Jokowi government in Indonesia doesn’t seem to be the vehicle for a broader reform movement: political power does not, at first glance, seem more widely shared, nor corruption much diminished.’

Sounds like the usual Oz lament about the hangovers—fraught, controversy etc. Then the sun breaks through and that dry realist Rod Lyon manages a glass-half-full moment. Australia, he notes, has been waiting a long time for the ‘Indonesia gone bad’ scenario to unfold, and it ain’t happened. Pop the corks. Here is Rod’s toast:

‘Today Indonesia looks more like our strategic partner than it ever has before.’

The Defence White Paper in August will make the same point as Australia shakes off the latest hangover. The enthusiasm over partnership will be muted by the political trauma of the execution of two Australians by an Indonesian firing squad. The Abbott government is feeling jaundiced about Jakarta. But the trend line and the aspiration will be what matters for a White Paper peering out decades at an Indonesia becoming bigger and stronger.

The extraordinary, vibrant and now raucously democratic neighbour to our north can be Australia’s strategic partner .We’ve just got many miles to go before we can add in descriptors like steady or established or even reliable. That way lies the place Paul Dibb aspires to: Indonesia as Australia’s ‘strategic shield.’

Australia enjoyed a growing sense of partnership with Indonesia because of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s presidency. It was the best decade we’ve had from an Indonesia president. It might be the best we’ll get. SBY was positive about Australia—still an unusual thing in the Jakarta elite. The SBY effect saw the Gillard government’s 2013 Defence White Paper declare: ‘Australia’s strong partnership with Indonesia remains our most important strategic relationship and the partnership continues to deepen and broaden in support of our significant shared interests.’

The concept of ‘strategic partnership’ has become part of the common coin of international relations; so common the worth and weight of such partnerships can fluctuate like currency movements. Gillard also proclaimed a strategic partnership with China to clinch the deal for an annual leadership summit. As Foreign Minister Bob Carr’s diary records the moment in Hainan in April, 2013, Gillard ‘uses the words “our strategic partnership”, which is the shorthand description of what they want from us and what we will agree to in order to get them to give us guaranteed annual leaders’ meetings.’

Let us, then, toast the process and aim of strategic partnership with Indonesia while hoping its meaning doesn’t fluctuate too much.

We need to acknowledge the SBY effect in the recent appreciation of partnership. An example was Barack Obama’s announcement in November, 2011, that the US Marines were heading for Darwin. The initial Jakarta reaction was negative. The Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, warned that the Marine announcement risked setting off nasty responses, causing ‘a vicious circle or tensions and mistrust or distrust.’

Such language was straight out of the old Jakarta playbook. Imagine how Suharto would have done it—he would have been chilly while Benny Murdani went ballistic. Indonesia would have quietly pocketed the strategic benefit of the Marines while blasting Australia, playing the standard nationalist, ASEAN and non-aligned cards.

Not so SBY. The President ignored his Foreign Minister and gave the Marines the thumbs-up. Then came the Javanese blessing. In July, 2012, SBY flew to Darwin for a three day visit and talks with Julia Gillard. The symbolism was that in going to Darwin, SBY was following Obama who’d also gone there with Gillard. Indonesia’s President flew to a Darwin where Marines were doing their first training rotation.

Did we take full advantage of the good times and build all the things with Indonesia that SBY would have made possible? Did we build on and grow and entrench and make as solid as possible the security framework SBY signed up to with the Lombok Treaty?

Probably not. But it was still a good enough structure not to be swept away by the diplomatic hurricane caused by Australia eavesdropping on SBY and his wife—and it was the structure used to incorporate a code of conduct on surveillance and intelligence to close off that dispute.

Turning the other cheek on the spying fiasco was SBY’s last gift to Australia.

So the ups and downs and hangovers will keep coming, precisely because Indonesia is our frame for Southeast Asia and looms large in the foreground. Ironically, however, we often lift our eyes further afield. Oz political, economic and diplomatic discussion of Asia is of a place that sits further north, beyond the archipelago.

Australia’s strategists and defenceniks spend more time looking at maps. They never forget the existential moment the Japanese visited on us. If any threat comes, it will arrive ‘from or through’ Indonesia. Strange that our gaze drifts.

Indonesia is the same—looking north not south. The old Jakarta joke: Australia is like your appendix, you only think about it when it hurts. This is a form of geopolitical astigmatism, where the view of the other gets hazier, even as they get closer. Call it reverse beer-goggles.

As John Garnaut laments, Australia and Indonesia fail to treat each other as serious nations, which is strange given the way our strategic interests are increasingly aligned:

‘When Australia and Indonesia think about serious things like security, technology and money they both look further north. The parochial politics of asylum seekers, or drug smugglers, or being seen to act tough towards each other, keep getting in the way, despite some herculean individual efforts on both sides. Each nation has shaken off its colonial and post-colonial baggage – except when they face each other.’

To their credit, Australians understand a lot of this. The poll by the Lowy Institute following the executions of Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran found Australians had a strong preference for a restrained diplomatic response.

‘Private diplomatic protests’ was the course most favoured by those surveyed, with 59% voting for private diplomacy. On the recall of the Australian ambassador, only 42% agreed Australia should pull back Paul Grigson.

Such results suggest Australians understand the happy-to-hangover cycle that afflicts this relationship. They might not go near the language of strategic partnership and converging interests. Instead there’s a pragmatic sense of the many things the odd couple must share. Cheers!

Indonesia and Australia, together apart

Wayang Kulit

Indonesia recalled its ambassador from Canberra because Australian intelligence eavesdropped on the Indonesian president and his wife.

Now Australia recalls its ambassador from Jakarta because Indonesia has executed two Australian drug smugglers.

The same diplomatic response to two events that have nothing in common: an intelligence gambit that went sour, and the tragic end to two young lives that went astray. What’s the common factor that caused Indonesia and now Australia to withdraw ambassadors?

The answer is simple because it’s big. And the answer has to be simple because it covers so many complexities.

The executions and the intelligence backfire share one vital dynamic: this is about Australia and Indonesia. Name two neighbouring states with less in common—a disparate pair destined to discomfort.

When Tony Abbott predicted that his diplomacy would be more Jakarta than Geneva he spoke more truly than he could have feared. In his short period in office, the ambassador recall score card now stands at one-all.

Abbott’s prediction of less internationalism and multilateralism, as represented by Geneva, had party and political significance, reflecting Liberal hang-ups made explicit by John Howard’s UN rejectionism.

Yet Abbott’s embrace of Jakarta expressed Australian interests and regional history. As the latest play of the ambassadorial yo-yo demonstrates, that history is defined by clash and crisis. These two nations have elevated a bit of common pragmatism to a guiding principle: we must live together though we are ever apart.

With emotions high and language hard, a stroll around the pragmatic principle is timely.

Walking the most delicate military and diplomatic line during Confrontation, Robert Menzies declared on 4 February 1965: ‘We have to live with Indonesia for hundreds of years and would prefer to live in peace.’

In the warmest speech about Oz I’ve ever heard from an Indonesian president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono spoke in the Great Hall of the Australian Parliament on 4 April, 2005, affirming the importance of the relationship while stressing the need to deal with each other differently:

‘Over the years, our relations have experienced many twists and turns, highs and lows. We know from experience that our relations are so complex and unique that it can be pulled in so many different directions, and it can go right as often as it can go wrong. Which is why we have to handle it with the greatest care and counsel.’

See such sentiment turned into diplomatese in the Framework for Security Cooperation signed at Lombok in November 2006. The pact is rinsed through with UN Charter language as it grapples with the together–apart reality. The first two guiding Principles of the Lombok treaty give the flavour and hint at the history:

1. Equality, mutual benefit and recognition of enduring interests each Party has in the stability, security and prosperity of the other.

2. Mutual respect and support for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, national unity and political independence of each other, and also non-interference in the internal affairs of one another.

One together–apart reality is that Indonesia can direct Australia’s regional dreams or dominate its nightmares. Writing about this over the decades, the voice of Jamie Mackie usually plays across my keyboard.

When Abbott had his first meeting with Jokowi, I distilled the Mackie spirit into a ten-point briefing for any Oz PM.

Here’s two bits of Mackie wisdom to be used both as the ambassador leaves Jakarta and when he returns.

1. It’s not a special relationship because the differences are too great at too many levels.

2. Tone matters—no shouting, no lectures and no domestic politics.

The pragmatic and the practical get a hearing when we can’t agree on principle. After the two executions, Australia will, rightly, continue to speak to the principles involved in opposing the death penalty. Those principles didn’t win the day when it mattered for the two Australians. After the statements of principle and the even stronger expressions of Australian public revulsion, what practical points are available to Oz ministers and diplomats? (When they resume talking, that is.)

Consider a private conversation on these lines: The executions hurt Indonesia internationally. And as the Lombok treaty made explicit, when Indonesia suffers then Australia’s interests suffer. The effective freeze on executions during most of SBY’s second term was more than just masterly Javanese inactivity. The sooner Jokowi can edge back towards SBY’s position the better.

Then Australia can point to the Singapore example. Granted, Indonesia hates Singapore lessons even more than Australian lectures. Make it a quiet nudge on how Singapore has changed course while not altering political language.

In the 1990s, Singapore had one of the highest execution rates, per capita, in the world. On a lot of Fridays at dawn, the hangman was busy at Changi prison. Quietly, Singapore’s elite shifted ground. The city state decided that being the only shopping centre with the death penalty was lousy branding.

In 2011, Lee Kuan Yew retired from Cabinet. In 2012, Singapore changed the law on some mandatory sentencing and gave judges more discretion. The shift was about reputational damage as much as principle.

Australia can and should have a loud argument with Indonesia about principle and the treatment of its people. But the private, practical points might just have the most effect. And remember the Jamie Mackie playbook. Tone matters. This is not a special relationship – the differences are too great—yet it is, most definitely, a unique and vital relationship.

Indonesia, politics and the death penalty

It appears that, in the end, nothing could have saved Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran—and, incidentally, six other drug convicts—who were executed by firing squad on the Indonesian prison island of Nusakambangan early yesterday morning.

But the temporary stay of execution for Filipina drug courier Mary Jane Veloso may say more about President Joko Widodo—and where he’s coming from—than anything else in this whole unhappy saga.

Veloso is a poorly-educated maid, the one class of person bound to attract the sympathy of even Widodo, who has made the welfare of Indonesia’s domestic workers—many from his own Javanese hinterland—a central pillar of his foreign policy.

His decision to proceed with the executions was made in his first month in office and appears to have been his alone. Widodo’s chief of staff Luhut Pandjaitan says he was never consulted on the issue.

Some analysts believe the president was anxious to show he wasn’t a prevaricator like his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Later in his presidency, SBY claimed an opposition to the death penalty but never took the next step.

Yudhoyono allowed 15 executions in the four years after he took office in 2004, including two Nigerians for drug trafficking. Then followed a four-year moratorium before a Nigerian, a Vietnamese and a Pakistani paid the ultimate price for the same offence, along with three murderers.

And in 2014 there were none. Compare that to Widodo, whose mild-mannered Attorney General, Muhammad Prasetyo, declared on the eve of this week’s executions: ‘Don’t force us to cancel or postpone the executions. If we do, we will be perceived as weak.’

More importantly, the president would also be perceived as giving in to foreigners—in this case, Australian leaders who know better than anyone that megaphone diplomacy doesn’t work with Jakarta, but nonetheless have to show they’re trying to save their citizens.

When Prime Minister Tony Abbott perhaps unwisely raised the issue of Australia’s help in the devastating 2004 Aceh tsunami disaster as a reason for Widodo halting the executions, the look of indignation and anger on Pandjaitan’s face was palpable.

Like it or not, Indonesians hate being pressured; countries that do so find they have precious little leverage to call on when the nation’s nationalist hackles have been raised above a certain level.

President Suharto demonstrated that adequately enough, first with the Australia and its media in the mid-1980s, and then with the Dutch and the Americans in the 1990s over the East Timor massacre and Indonesia’s poor human rights record.

More recent is the case of marijuana smuggler Schapelle Corby, who should have received a five-year sentence, but got 20 years instead because the judges were clearly unhappy with the Australian media’s claims that she didn’t get a fair trial.

Yesterday’s execution brings the number of foreigners who have died on Widodo’s watch to 14, with as many as 14 more slated to follow in their footsteps this year alone.

Why is Widodo trying to look so tough? Some critics suggest he’s trying to make up for his failure to protect the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) from an all-out assault by police and politicians; it has seen the president savaged in the polls over recent months.

Others say it’s easier to blame foreigners for drug trafficking than to address the more difficult tasks of going after corrupt policemen and big-time Indonesian dealers responsible for starting and sustaining the drug ‘emergency’ Widodo likes to talk about.

Too many people have also been seduced into thinking this walkabout president is what they wanted him to be: a knight on a white horse, spreading reform and change and good cheer. As they are discovering, he’s not like that at all.

A harder side of Widodo is now in evidence, and so is the realisation that someone who was born poor and spent most of his 53 years in central Java hasn’t been exposed to the moral debate over the death penalty that other leaders have been.

Many if not most educated Indonesians abhor the death penalty; one described it to me as ‘sadistic and barbaric’. But the general population—easily influenced at the best of times—accepts it without much thought and would like nothing better than to extend it to corruptors.

Religion does play a role in this mentality. After all, even with Indonesia missing from this year’s list, 13 Islamic nations led by Egypt, Pakistan and Bangladesh were among the 25 countries that had the highest number of state-sanctioned executions.

Indonesian Muslims say the fact that the death penalty is applied for serious crimes in Islamic law only reinforces the principle of an eye-for-eye entrenched in the Indonesian psyche, exacerbated as it is by social injustice and a weak rule of law that encourages extrajudicial killings.

Indonesian writer and philosopher Goenawan Mohamad (whose father was executed by the Dutch) points to how the country’s history of violence forms the way its people think about death. As he wrote in a recent column: ‘We need a history that is more peaceful, a history which enforces justice because justice is not easy to enforce.’

Indonesians aren’t given to introspection but if the diplomatic storm over the eight executions achieves anything, it may be to start a debate within the political elite over the whole issue.

Australia and Indonesia: will it always be like this?

Abbott and Jokowi at the G20

Following the executions of Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran last night, it doesn’t pay to let hurt or anger drive one’s thinking about Australia–Indonesia ties. Those who care about the relationship—mostly politicians and officials, not too many ‘average’ citizens in either country—must despair for future prospects. Is it always going to be like this?

A succession of spats and public differences over live cattle trade, spying allegations, turning back the boats and executions have meant that, for half a decade, the relationship has faced repeated crises. Looking further back, it’s clear that our relations since Indonesia’s independence in 1945 have been marked by even deeper problems. Australia spent much of the 1950s and early ‘60s deeply worried about Indonesian susceptibility to Communism. Konfrontasi in the 1960s saw us fighting a counterinsurgency war against Jakarta over Malaysia’s independence. Indonesia’s incorporation of West Papua in 1962 and East Timor in 1975 created deep and lasting instabilities in our nearer region.

Under Suharto, systemic corruption inhibited the development of deep government-to-government relations. The best Paul Dibb’s 1986 Review of Australia’s Defence Capabilities could publicly say about Indonesia was that it was the area ‘from or through which a military threat to Australia could most easily be posed’. Dibb was making a point about geography, but there was little warmth in the political relationship to offset that hard strategic reality. The Timor crisis of 1999 again put Canberra–Jakarta relations into the deep-freeze. It took the 2004 tsunami and the leadership skills of John Howard and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to steer relations to a better place. We may look back on that period of warmth as one of the truly  positive periods in an otherwise difficult partnership.

Fast forward to more recent times, the Defence White Paper 2013 was deeply invested in Australia–Indonesia ties:

‘Australia’s longstanding partnership with Indonesia remains our most important defence relationship in the region. In addition to shared security challenges, Australia and Indonesia maintain a common commitment to regional security, which is reflected in our wider governmental strategic partnership. Indonesia’s importance to Australia will grow as its significant regional influence becomes global. Indonesia’s success as a democracy and its economic growth will see it emerge as one of the world’s major economies. Its proximity to Australia and leadership role in ASEAN will continue to increase its importance to us as a security partner.

In recent years, Australia’s defence relationship with Indonesia has developed significantly through a practical and effective engagement program. … The Government is committed to further broadening and deepening our defence and security cooperation with Indonesia, including through greater engagement between areas of our defence organisations and our defence industries, and closer and more comprehensive strategic dialogue.’

Those paragraphs may describe what Australian governments want with Indonesia, but they don’t accurately reflect the substance of our bilateral relationship. Partnership? Indonesian leaders don’t always take the Prime Minister’s calls. Most important defence relationship in the region? Jakarta is certainly important but when it comes to genuine partnership we’re actually closer to Singapore or New Zealand. Shared security challenges, and practical and effective engagement programs? There has been valuable cooperation on policing, intelligence exchange and in some defence contacts. These links were established after the Bali bombings—a time when both countries truly shared a common interest in cooperating.

The references to Indonesia’s regional and global leadership in the 2013 Defence White Paper are highly aspirational. ASEAN and Australia would welcome an Indonesia willing and able to lead coherent responses to regional security issues. On the global stage President Widodo’s standing has taken a hit as a result of his handling of the capital punishment issue. For the moment Indonesia is inward looking with little sign that Jakarta is about to establish a global leadership position for itself.

Bilateral relations will be in stasis for some time. The withdrawal of Australian Ambassador Paul Grigson and a halt to Ministerial contact may last only a few weeks or months, but the unhappiness in both capitals suggest that it will take much longer—or a jolting crisis like another terrorist attack in Bali—before we again see closer cooperation.

Will Australia and Indonesia ever develop the closer strategic partnership that the Defence White Paper 2013 envisioned? As Yogi Berra said, ‘the future ain’t what it used to be.’ Nothing in the first seventy years of the relationship suggests that the next seventy will be much easier. A lot potentially flows from this conclusion, including the content of the cooperation we try to advance with Indonesia and the manner of our contact. Our policy settings must encompass the possibility of closer bonds and of continuing estrangement. More realism and tempered aspirations should be the order of the day.

Australia and Indonesia: hard times ahead

Hard times ahead for Australia and Indonesia

The executions of Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran will leave most Australians dismayed by President Joko Widodo’s refusal of clemency, angered by the clumsy, ugly execution process and jaundiced by the attitudes of a number of Indonesians on killing two of our countrymen.

This latest downturn with Indonesia will make us reflect—again—on what we should do. Make no mistake, it will deeply affect Australian perceptions of Jokowi through the rest of his tenure, and more widely, of Indonesia for years to come.

Don’t blame the Australian Government. It tried its best to save its nationals. We have often made mistakes with Indonesia; this time, however, Indonesia got it wrong.

Don’t see the executions as primarily an Australia–Indonesia issue, either. By year’s end, Jokowi would have overseen a significant number of executions. Two involve Australians. We need perspective.

But Indonesia dismissed our representations and we have no choice but to react with uncompromising displeasure. We should withhold bilateral visits by ministers while executions continue or for the rest of the year. We can’t have high-level business as usual.

That said, we shouldn’t compromise our own interests to the extent of jeopardising the web of civilian and military exchanges that are at the heart of the relationship, or cut our aid program in response to the executions—intended to improve the lives of ordinary Indonesians. We should keep our Ambassador in Jakarta because communication matters.

Our longer term challenge requires two shifts in our approach towards Indonesia.

First, our country—amongst others—often sees diplomacy in terms of relationships. Wrong. It’s about interests.

In recent decades we’ve framed our dealings with Indonesia within various forms of ’special relationship’ only to see our interests suffer when illusions shatter.

Our political class and external policy establishment must develop a mindset that dealing with Indonesia is a management task as much as a political one—keeping things stable and pushing our interests through unglamorous grunt work—part of which involves accommodating, where appropriate, Indonesian interests. But interests must be the basis of our relationship, not the reverse.

Second, we have to recognise that the Australian foreign policy challenge is different to that of most Western democracies. With the exception of New Zealand, our neighbours have different political systems and traditions, levels of development and postcolonial experiences from our own. This cultural gap is most salient with Indonesia. It impedes stability in our dealings. Australians see Indonesians as callous, militaristic and corrupt. Indonesians see Australians as insensitive and condescending. Politicians in each country react to their own national prejudices in their dealings with the other. And so it continues.

This isn’t a new problem for us. To lessen it, we must take a bipartisan path, which will require Australians to understand Indonesia and Asia more widely through education and practical exposure, and build the people-to-people and institutional relationships which encourage equilibrium in our international dealings. In the past we have gone enthusiastically down these paths only to be stalled by lethargy and partisan bickering.

Understandably, Australians can wonder whether Indonesia really matters or is worth the trouble. It does and it is. Indonesia straddles many of our northern approaches. It is the prime mover within ASEAN. It will play a role in the ongoing evolution of new power structures in the Asia–Pacific. Its policies on terrorism and transnational crime impact directly on us. Its size and growth mean that it will soon be the dominant economy in Southeast Asia. We mustn’t allow anger or disappointment to cloud our judgement.

This is particularly important because managing the relationship with Indonesia may become harder still.

Since the sixties, we have dealt with two long-term, stable regimes in Indonesia: Suharto’s and Yudhoyono’s (SBY). We had our difficulties with Suharto—not least over Timor—but his strength meant a certain, if sometimes unwelcome, reliability. SBY took us seriously. Habibie, Gus Dur and Megawati all demonstrated pluses and minuses but listened to what Australia had to say.

Jokowi has a weak domestic base which in any country cuts across sound foreign policy. His world view seems to be shaped by the need to attract investment from big players like China, Japan and the United States—complemented by some outdated non-aligned perspectives.

We may now be entering a period in our dealings with Indonesia which is less sure than the Suharto era, less positive than the Yudhoyono years and lacking the ease of communication which we enjoyed with Habibie, Gus Dur and Megawati. It will require lowering expectations, and greater persistence and patience.

During the Timor period, Indonesians of good will—of which there are many—used to say ‘neither of us can choose our neighbours, but we have to coexist’. It’s not euphoric advice, but they may be right.

Jokowi’s trip to Tokyo and Beijing

Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo

Last week, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo embarked on a weeklong Northeast Asian tour beginning with Tokyo on Monday and then Beijing on Wednesday. Besides pressing the flesh and riding a bullet train, Jokowi’s aims were to attract greater investment in Indonesia and strengthen political ties. Among the pledges and promises, let’s see what major stuff Jokowi took home.

Strategic partnership

In Tokyo, Jokowi received positive statements from Prime Minister Abe that both countries would ‘enhance’ their strategic partnership and build security cooperation via 2+2 meetings. They signed a memorandum on further bilateral defence cooperation that included increased military training—beyond the existing exchange of military students—and access to military technology to help Japan gain foothold in Indonesian defence industry given the competitiveness of South Korean firms in the region.

In Beijing, Jokowi and Xi Jinping agreed to sign a five-year plan of action to build on the comprehensive strategic partnership, as well as an MoU on cooperation in preventing and combatting transnational crime. Both sides agreed to further expand defence cooperation in the areas of joint exercises and training, and to further establish army to army and air force to air force talks, alongside the existing navy dialogue. Interestingly, given Indonesian sensitivities about intrusions into its maritime domain, the joint statement included the following reference:

The Indonesian side is ready to continue providing facilitation for Chinese vessels to carry out telemetry, tracking and control missions in Indonesian waters in accordance with the Indonesian national laws and bilateral agreements.

Maritime cooperation

The Jokowi administration’s policy centrepiece is to transform Indonesia into a ‘global maritime nexus’. No surprises then that maritime cooperation featured heavily in the Japan–Indonesia joint statement, with both Jokowi and Abe affirming the importance of ‘free, open and stable seas’ for peace, prosperity and security. The main takeaway was the agreement to launch a Japan–Indonesia Maritime Forum as soon as possible to further strengthen and accelerate maritime cooperation, including maritime safety and security, as well as the promotion of maritime industries. Japan will also enhance the competence of Indonesia’s coast guard and develop infrastructure. But exact details are still lacking, as The Diplomat’s Prashanth Parameswaran notes.

Although the China–Indonesia statement appeared lighter on maritime matters, it was no less significant. For one, it pledged cooperation in a number of maritime-related areas as part of developing a maritime partnership. Xi Jinping also promised to support investment in Indonesia’s maritime infrastructure as well, via the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund. Both sides also signed a MoU on maritime search and rescue.

Investment

Foreign investment will play a key role in realising many of the President’s plans, such as boosting maritime infrastructure. Jokowi’s APEC speech in November had a clear message: ‘we are waiting for you to invest in Indonesia’.

In Tokyo, Jokowi secured Abe’s support for an economic program called ‘Promosi’ (Indonesian for ‘promotion’), designed to boost Japanese investment in the country, particularly in energy, transport and infrastructure. Abe also promised 140 billion yen (A$1.5 billion) in loans for railway projects, including Indonesia’s rapid transit system currently under construction. Jokowi was treated to a bullet train ride as part of the Japanese sales pitch for the technology, and a feasibility study is already underway.

Meanwhile, Jokowi secured similar deals and affirmations in Beijing, including an MoU on cooperating on a high speed rail project linking the capital and Bandung, another major Indonesian city, as well as energy and infrastructure cooperation including toll roads throughout the archipelago, dams and deep-sea ports.

China’s PM Li Keqiang labelled economic cooperation between the two nations as ‘win-win cooperation’, encouraging Chinese companies to consider Indonesia as an investment destination.

A win for Jokowi?

In contrast with his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Jokowi’s foreign policy is more pragmatic and economically focussed. Jokowi has done well to leverage the maritime domain for Indonesia to build better investment and security ties with Japan and China. The statements and agreements signed with  both Northeast Asian partners will help boost trade and investment with Southeast Asia’s largest economy. As many of Jokowi’s ambitions for his country are contingent on maintaining economic growth and investment, it remains to be seen what role Japanese and Chinese money can play. Suffice to say, however, every little bit counts (according to the World Bank, FDI in Indonesia in 2013 was worth US$23 billion).

With Japan and China both vying for influence in Southeast Asia, the trip had gains for both. While Indonesia mightn’t be a claimant in maritime disputes with China, its position on maintaining stability in the maritime domain and respecting international law align with Japan’s interests. From Japan’s perspective, that’s a win.

Indonesia has also been careful not to antagonise China. Although ahead of his Tokyo trip Jokowi declared that China’s nine-dash line had no basis in international law, he dodged controversy by clarifying his position and reiterating Jakarta’s desire to be an ‘honest broker’ in maritime disputes.

This trip saw Jokowi’s first bilateral visits outside ASEAN, underlining the increasingly important role China and Japan will  play in Indonesia’s and Southeast Asia’s future. Against a backdrop of increased Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and tensions between China and Japan, harnessing both countries (or even playing them off against one another) will be a neat trick—if Jokowi pulls it off.

The Beat

Blue Sky, 99.1% chemically pure crystal methamphetamine manufactured by Walter White and Jesse Pinkman in the TV show Breaking Bad.This week on The Beat; terrorism financing in Indonesia from Australia, ACC report on ‘ice’ use, cybercrime to cost US$400 billion, witness in Alexander Litvinenko inquiry, and metadata.

Indonesian terrorism funding from Australia

New reports state money thought to be financing terrorism is flowing into Indonesia from Australia. The deputy head of Indonesia’s Financial Transactions and Analysis Centre (PPTAK), Agus Santoso, stated that the funds were being directed to a variety of organisations, and that Indonesia was working closely with Austrac to trace the funds.

Austrac has been working with partners to counter this issue, citing the serious threat it poses to Australian at home and abroad. This 2014 report outlines Austrac’s counterterrorism financing framework and activities, both domestically and overseas. Read more

Sea State: future frigate contenders II

HMAS Sydney (IV) entered Sydney Heads for the final time as a Royal Australian Navy ship this morning, before being welcomed alongside Garden Island, by former sailors, officers and support staff. The Adelaide class frigate is scheduled to be decommissioned at the end of the year to make way for the Navy’s new fleet of Hobart Class Guided Missile Destroyers. Sydney (IV) was commissioned on 29 January 1983 and is the fourth ship to bear the name.

With ASPI’s Future Surface Fleet conference now less than a week away, Sea State this week will continue last week’s examination of design options for the future frigate fleet. We’ll also take a look at what’s happening in maritime security news—including Swedish and Japanese responses to the Australian submarine question, and some news from the Langkawi International Maritime & Aerospace Exhibition which took place in Malaysia over the last week.

Another potential contender for the ‘MOTS/evolved MOTS’ design option is the Danish Iver Huitfeldt-class frigate.

Iver Huitfeldt-class frigates are part of a three-ship class that were developed by the Royal Danish Navy, the Danish Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization and the Odense Maritime Technology as an evolution of their older Absalon-class model. The partnering of public and private sector in the development of the design ‘significantly’ minimised program risk and production costs—the vessels reportedly being delivered for US$325m each. The Iver Huitfeldt-class were created with stealth in mind—offering a combination of reduced ‘infrared radiation, underwater noise and magnetic signature to make the ship as invisible as possible to an enemy’. The Danish frigates represent a flexible modular design contender for SEA 5000. Read more