Tag Archive for: GOP

Republican plan could embed destructive US foreign policy

On 10 June, the Republican Study Committee—comprising 147 Republican Party members of the US House of Representatives—released its national security strategy. The 120-page document, titled Strengthening America and countering global threats, outlines a series of mainly punitive policy measures and, its authors claim, ‘offers 130 solutions to counter America’s most aggressive global adversaries, including the toughest sanctions ever proposed by Congress against the Chinese Communist Party, Russia and the Putin regime, and Iran’.

The document doesn’t represent formal US foreign policy, but it will have an influence on foreign policy under a Republican administration. It offers an insight into the world view of a significant number of conservatives in US politics and how they perceive their nation’s ongoing role in global affairs.

While the strategy is presented as ‘a blueprint for a stable 21st-century order, led by an independent United States and committed to peace’, much of it is devoted to cataloguing new sanctions regimes and coercive strategies targeting America’s adversaries and imposing Washington’s will on the world.

It runs through a litany of grievances relating to Chinese industrial espionage and intellectual property theft and outlines Beijing’s intention to ‘exploit the free and open rules based order and attempt to reshape the international system in its favor’.

In the section on Russia, the strategy proposes imposing further sanctions, enhancing support for NATO partners, and supporting the pro-democracy movement inside Russia. The focus on new sanctions will likely prove ineffective, and the plan to support the pro-democracy movement will likely see Moscow step up its own ‘hybrid warfare’ campaign against the US and the West.

Many of the issues and transgressions identified in the strategy, particularly those associated with the actions of China and Russia, are legitimate. Nevertheless, almost no space is devoted to constructing collaborative processes or dispute-resolution frameworks—so critical to managing emerging geopolitical challenges.

The strategy does offer a roadmap for remaking the system of international institutions and identifies a number of significant problems with international organisations. But its proposal to defund a range of UN agencies—including the UN Development Programme, the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs, the UN Human Settlements Programme, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—will likely create a void in the international institutional architecture.

The strategy proposes establishing a community of democracies as an alternative to the UN in what appears to be a measure designed primarily to counter the influence of countries such as China and Russia in international organisations.

The approach outlined in the strategy also explicitly undermines the State Department’s role in the conduct of foreign policy. This department has already been significantly disempowered under President Donald Trump—it lost around 12% of its Foreign Service personnel during the Trump administration’s first eight months and is likely to be hit with a further 8% cut to its Foreign Service budget in 2021. The strategy goes even further, proposing that the department give up ‘its control over aspects of foreign policy which are best done by other government agencies’, with the Foreign Service to be replaced by ‘a new diplomatic corps that hires to fill specific jobs and encourages a flow of personnel between the private sector and the Department of State’.

The impact of this plan on the US’s ability to undertake constructive diplomacy may prove catastrophic. The perils of appointing candidates with no meaningful foreign policy experience to critical diplomatic roles has become apparent during the Trump administration, and direct links have been drawn between the ‘hollowing out’ of the US Foreign Service and Washington’s declining capacity to negotiate critical arms-control agreements. In this context, the proposal will likely do little more than hasten the already apparent decline in the US’s diplomatic competence.

One more curious element of the strategy is its ambition to maintain an ‘international order based on American values’. The strategy’s authors see the US as ‘the best force for good in the world’ and declare that ‘[the US’s] strength creates more freedom, prosperity, and potential for people everywhere’. In proclaiming this, the authors appear not only detached from the reality of contemporary US democracy but also wilfully ignorant of the trajectory of US global influence under Trump.

The Trump administration’s disastrous failure to respond coherently to both the Covid-19 pandemic and the events following the murder of George Floyd has exposed not only the chronic dysfunction at the state and federal levels of government—some domestic commentators have categorised the US as a failed state—but also the deep fractures at the heart of US society. It’s also clear that the very foundations of US democracy are under attack from within, with electoral integrity under threat at all levels of US government.

Furthermore, as argued by journalist Anne Applebaum, the rank and file of the Republican Party are increasingly embracing an ‘alternative value system’ embodied by the Trump presidency. In the process, they are radically reshaping the American political landscape as a more arbitrary, authoritarian and unaccountable system that promotes vested interests and undermines the rule of law, targets the media, manipulates divisions for political gain and hijacks debate on public policy through the use of lies and misrepresentation.

All of this will have a fundamental impact on the way the US acts globally and how it pursues its own foreign and strategic policy agenda. And, as noted by Richard Haass, ‘The example the United States sets at home and the image it projects abroad can either magnify American power or detract from it.’

The strategy defines the Republican Study Committee’s view of the world and the US’s place in it. It would also provide Washington with a catalogue of policy options that would arguably position the US as a pernicious and destabilising force in international affairs, repudiating its largely constructive legacy from the second half of the 20th century.

Hobson’s choice: The Donald versus the Republican convention

We’ve all heard about catch-22, double bind, Hobson’s choice. All these expressions describe situations in which you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. And it’s precisely the quandary the Republican Party finds itself in as it grapples with how to handle Donald Trump. If the GOP nominates the flamboyant billionaire, he will lead America’s centre-right party to electoral annihilation; if he is denied the presidential candidacy, Republicans will split. Get ready for the conservative crackup.

At the moment, Trump leads the primary race by about 200 delegates. He has won 19 states, nine more than his closest rival Ted Cruz. And he has electrified an angry base of supporters who believe the party—and Washington—has betrayed them. But although he is expected to win primaries in his home state New York on April 19 and in other parts of the northeast on April 26, on current projections he is unlikely to amass the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright.

If he indeed fails to win a majority of delegates by the final primaries on June 7, he may lose the nomination at the national convention six weeks later. The party rules are clear: failing a majority, there could be a contested (or open or brokered) convention, with multiple ballots and arcane floor procedures to determine the nominee. What to do?

On the one hand, the stop-Trump movement—which, remember, comprises a majority of party members—could hold their noses and make Trump the heir to Lincoln, Eisenhower and Reagan at the convention in Cleveland.

A maddening experience for many life-long Republicans, to be sure, but the upside is that the 35-40 percent of loyal Trump supporters would stay in the party and campaign energetically for their candidate. Under Trump, Republicans could appeal to many blue-collar Democrats disoriented by socio-economic change as well as many disillusioned folks who don’t usually vote.

Appealing to the angry white male when the white vote continues to decline as a share of the electorate may sound absurd. But according to voting analyst Sean Trende, five million fewer whites voted in the 2012 election than in 2008; most represent a less affluent and more working-class demographic (not a natural Republican constituency); so support for a Trump candidacy could carry electoral advantages in a nation with voluntary voting.

The downside, of course, is that Trump—the most polarizing political figure of the modern era with record high ‘unfavourability’ ratings—would alienate women, minorities and independents. That would probably deliver not just a President Hillary Clinton, but also a Democrat Senate and a liberal Supreme Court. It could also imperil the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

On the other hand, the Republicans could deny Trump the nomination at what would be the first contested Republican convention since 1976 and head to the November election with their dignity intact.

Trump is widely regarded as a rude and crude buffoon who would upset the sensitivities of a clear majority of people, including many Republicans. He also represents a threat to the centre-right principles of small government, tough national security and social conservatism that have defined the GOP for decades. Trump is anti-political correctness, but he is no Reaganite: he instead represents the kind of populist and nationalist movements now dismantling established parties across Europe.

Moreover, Republicans calculate that a Trump-less ticket would increase the prospects of Republicans holding the House, perhaps the Senate—useful bulwarks against a Clinton White House in 2017.

Not surprisingly, the notion of denying Trump the nomination is all the rage among the smart set in Washington. And given Ted Cruz’s far superior organizing team, the Texan senator is in good position to wipe the (convention) floor against Trump in July.

What could possibly go wrong?

Plenty. If Trump is stopped, however justified and legal a contested convention would be, those energized supporters Trump has tapped into might go ballistic, perhaps literally. Denying Trump the nomination, even though he wins more delegates and states than his rivals, would reaffirm their trumped-up charges that the ‘corrupt’ system is ‘rigged’ against outsiders.

So the Republicans are stuck in the catch-22 conundrum that I identified earlier: nominate Trump and they are stuffed; deny Trump and they’re probably still stuffed.

The reality is that the Republican Party is in the midst of a civil war. Trump is an obnoxious nationalist who appeals to angry white men but aggravates Middle America. Cruz is an ideologue, a hero to the party’s right-wing base, who also scares independents, minorities and women.

John Kasich, the Ohio governor and only remaining candidate, is a mainstream conservative with a sound policy record. But although he represents the greatest threat to the Democrats in a general election, he doesn’t resonate with the party’s grassroots. And the idea of parachuting a non-primary candidate into the nomination, as Republican Speaker Paul Ryan recognised this week, would upset virtually everyone.   

What we are witnessing here is the demise of American conservatism, as we have known it since the Reagan ascendancy in the late 1970s. It’s leaderless, incapable of philosophical reflection and splintering into several cantankerous factions. And by embracing a doctrinal agenda on social issues, many Republicans are out of touch with an electorate that is increasingly more progressive. These are dark days for American conservatives.

ASPI suggests

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The US-led airstrike on a Médecins sans Frontières hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, which killed 12 MSF workers and 10 patients, is a story that has a long way to run. General John Campbell, the American commander of the US and NATO operation in Afghanistan, this week appeared before a Senate panel, with his testimony widely noted as the fourth version of events in as many days. Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon characterises the bombing as ‘the greatest tragedy caused by US forces in several years in this war’, and a ‘bigger disaster’ than the US recognises. MSF has pulled out of Kunduz, likening the attack to a war crime and calling for an inquiry.

On the back his earlier effort The Virtual ‘Caliphate’: Understanding Islamic State’s Propaganda Strategy, Quilliam Foundation’s Charlie Winter this week released a fascinating study of ISIL’s propaganda proper. Winter sought to understand the group’s strategy by archiving and analysing 30-days’ worth of videos, photos, audio clips, news bulletins and theological essays, among other propaganda ‘events’ (of which there were 1,146 all up). The full report is available here (PDF), as well as an interview with the author here.

With almost 40 years since David Bowie asked, ‘is there life on Mars?’, NASA is now considering a manned mission to the red planet and has the US Navy in its sights. The collaboration is all about teamwork and team resilience, and takes the confined space experience of submariners and applies it to astronauts in outer space.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to Jimmy Carter, this week penned an op-ed for the Financial Times on the situation in Syria. The piece calls for ‘strategic boldness’ from the US, and has been billed by CSIS as one of the ‘most thoughtful pieces you will read on the crisis.’ Head to FT for the paywalled piece, or to Politico for some analysis sans paywall.

Foreign Policy have got you covered for all your GOP needs this week, with this piece on the national security implications of the race to replace John Boehner as Speaker of the House. Looking a bit further into the future of US politics, The Atlantic has an article on why Americans are increasingly likely to want a less experienced president in the Oval Office—but not too inexperienced (*cough* Trump).

Admiral Bill Gortney of the US Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command confirmed on Wednesday that the US government believes that North Korea is capable of launching a nuclear weapon that could reach the US, while South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported that the DPRK is estimated to hold up to 22 nuclear weapons’ worth of fissile material. For some background reading, check out Victor Cha’s statement before the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations this week, where he argued that the US, Japan and South Korea should tighten trilateral cooperation to counter the rogue state. For a different perspective, have a look at the footage from Chatham House’s 30 September discussion with Hyon Hak-bong, the DPRK’s ambassador to the UK, on the future of the Korean Peninsula here.

From blowing up Assad’s opposition (and rural Iran?!) to blowing out birthday candles, it’s been a good week for Vladimir Putin. The Russian President celebrated his 63rd birthday in style on Wednesday, by playing ice hockey against Soviet-born NHL stars. In a development that will shock few, he won, 15-10. If hockey isn’t your thing, Russia-wide celebrations extended from the art exhibition ‘Putin Universe’—where the leader is depicted in various heroic forms, including as Gandhi and Batman—to this excellent music video by Russian rapper Timati, in which he breaks it down in Red Square to the chorus of ‘my best friend is President Putin’.

Podcasts

In a sobering addition to their Global Thinkers podcast series, Foreign Policy’s Seyward Darby discusses commonalities between a long history of global refugee crises with FP columnist Lauren Wolfe, and Kids in Need of Defense president Wendy Young (25 mins). Discussion focuses primarily the difficulties faced by children fleeing war zones, and is a must-listen for anyone interested in the humanitarian aspects of what’s happening in the EU.

Videos

With Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington DC done and dusted, what happens next with actually implementing some of the promises made between Xi and Obama during the trip? The Diplomat’s Shannon Tiezzi sat down with Michael Swaine of the Carnegie Endowment and had a chat about where US–China relations are headed after the new affirmations (15 mins).

CT wonks, PBS are releasing a three-part series named My Brother’s Bomber on the investigation into the Lockerbie Bombing, which destroyed Pan Am Flight 103, and took the lives of the 270 on board. The series follows Ken Dornstein, who lost his older brother in the attack, as he attempts to track down potential suspects. Parts one and two have already been released and can be viewed here (55 mins each); part three will be released on 13 October.

Events

Canberra: Calling all Japanophiles! Monday is your day, with the ANU’s Crawford School set to host the Japan Update 2015. The full-day event will cut across political, economic, social and regional matters for a holistic snapshot of ‘our best friend in Asia’. Further details available here.

Canberra: John Blaxland will launch the second volume of his history of ASIO, covering 1963–1975, at Old Parliament House on 11 November. Be sure to register early for this one.

Sydney: Raising the Bar, a global initiative that began in NYC and aims to make education a part of a city’s pop culture, is coming to Sydney. The 20 speakers, with expertise ranging from climate change and the Australia–Indonesia relationship to HRC’s prospects for presidency and women on the frontline, will speak at 20 bars around the city on the night of 20 October. Choose your topic, and book ASAP!