Sea State

Last week, TKMS opened its dockyards in Kiel to visiting Australian defence writers to discuss its submarine and surface fleet operations. The Germans have displayed a transparency in the competitive evaluation process that some have observed has been lacking on the part of the Japanese and French contenders. Amid concerns about the Japanese Soryu-class submarine’s compatibility with Australian requirements, TKMS Australia’s CEO Philip Stanford has emphasised the synergies between the German and Australian navies.

However, the 500 new jobs in South Australia announced by Prime Minister Abbott in February this year won’t include construction jobs, regardless of who wins the SEA 1000 bid. While both European contenders have indicated that they’d be happy to build at ASC, South Australian senator Nick Xenophon is of the impression that the 500 figure ‘refers to the things that need to take place in Australia’ regardless of the outcome of the competitive evaluation process, which presupposes  a Japanese build.

However, builder aside, our future submarines will be irrelevant according to Bryan Clark—a former US military naval adviser to the Pentagon. Clark told ABC in an interview last week that the US reliance on its submarines being undetectable will end in 10–20 years, when other nations’ new detection technologies will render submarines obsolete.  When this happens, submersible drones will be the focus of underwater stealth operations.

Flight Path

Following the recent kerfuffle over B-1s and B-52s exercising in Australia, tensions in the South China Sea were again tested with the US sending its P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane over the highly contested Fiery Cross reef. The US ‘routine maritime domain awareness’ mission was labelled by Chinese officials as dangerous and ‘detrimental to regional peace and stability’. A CNN videographer was invited to record the mission that included the Chinese navy issuing eight warnings to move the aircraft away from Chinese territory. You can watch the video here and listen to the radio transmissions here. Tensions don’t seem to be easing, with more recent US claims that China allegedly tried to electronically jam US Global Hawk surveillance drone flights over the South China Sea.

In technology news, the US Air Force is looking to fire high energy lasers from C-17s by 2023. Projected for integration with fighter jets, the technology would enable an aircraft to fire thousands of shots and defeat an incoming missile. Whilst the idea is not new, Air Force officials have noted it has learned from a previous Airborne Laser program (ended in 2009).

Finally, last Tuesday Australia’s first trained F-35A pilot Squadron Leader Andrew Jackson flew ‘Skippy’, one of Australia’s first F-35A joint strike fighters (JSF).

Rapid Fire

The big news of the week came when the city of Ramadi, 110 kilometres from Baghdad, was captured by Islamic State fighters. After fighting the Iraqi army for some time the group seized the city and an estimated 100 tanks left behind by the Iraqi army. The Iraqi performance was slammed by US Defense Secretary Ash Carter in an exclusive interview with CNN, calling the event a ‘failure of the Iraqi forces to fight’. But it isn’t all bad news for Ramadi, with a counter offensive reportedly launched by the Iraqi army over the weekend.

This setback has prompted questions of whether US and allied troops should themselves be taking up arms and joining the combat against Islamic State, notably by Australia’s own David Kilcullen. Some defence analysts, including American Enterprise Institute scholar, Frederick Kagan, have called for as many as 20,000 US ground troops to be deployed.

This is juxtaposed with a Defense One and GBC survey that shows even though only 16% of US Defense Department and military personnel surveyed agree that the campaign against Islamic State is doing enough, only 31% would back putting more boots on the ground.

In a speech during the commencement ceremony for the United States Coast Guard Academy, President Obama commented on the impact of climate change on the military. Task and Purpose wrote a follow up article highlighting these threats, all of which should be of great concern to the future of Australia’s defence force.

Sea State

At last week’s MAST Asia 2015 conference on maritime defence and security technology in Yokohama, it became apparent that Japan’s two largest defence manufacturers—Mitsubishi and Kawasaki—are awaiting the Japanese government’s lead on two high profile opportunities: SEA 1000 and the Indian submarine Project 75I. The conference also included a number of forums on technologies, operations and tactics of Future Submarines, and an exhibition Japan’s first post-WWII arms.

Back in Australia, the first of the Hobart-class AWDs will be launched this Saturday in Adelaide. Watch here for aerial footage of the ships being built from March this year.

Speaking of destroyers, Russia’s Krylov State Research Center has been busy with the development of a new class of destroyer for the Russian Navy. The new design—Project 23560E—will be exhibited at the International Maritime Defence Show 2015 in St Petersburg during July, so stay tuned for more info.

And finally, following the 9 May underwater test-fire of submarine-launched ballistic missiles, photos published by North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper show an ecstatic Kim Jong-un. And he’s got much to celebrate: Kim has provided his military with a ‘world-level strategic weapon’ that has South Korean military officials worried about regional stability.

Flight Path

What’s the difference between a B-1 and B-52 strategic bomber? US Defense Department’s Assistant Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security David Shear confused the two last week when he announced that the supersonic B-1 would be deployed to Australia. The confusion triggered fears of conflict escalation between China and the US over the South China Sea and was later dismissed as an error by Shear.

The US Air Force has announced that it’s learning lessons from the hypersonic X-51 test vehicle to develop a high-speed strike weapon, with the long-term plan being the fielding of hypersonic missiles.

Reflecting an ongoing trend favouring long-range strike capability, the US Navy has revealed it’s working with Lockheed Martin to integrate its new autonomously guided Long Range Anti-ship Missile onto an F/A-18 Super Hornet aircraft. The new technology, with an unclassified range of 200 nautical miles (and even longer classified range), will allow the Super Hornet to strike maritime targets at longer ranges. The capability has been tested on a B-1 bomber and is expected to be integrated onto the F-15 and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Lastly, US military scientists have invented miniature drones that resemble your standard paper plane. Named the ‘Cicada’, the palm-sized drone can provide weather readings, eavesdrop on operations and, with on-board seismic and magnetic sensors, potentially detect vehicle traffic or submarines.

Rapid Fire

Senior Islamic State leader Abu Sayyaf (not to be confused with the Filipino insurgent group of the same name) was reportedly killed during a US Special Forces raid Friday night in al-Amr in south-eastern Syria. The mission shows a willingness to place boots on the ground, despite the Obama administration vowing publicly that it wouldn’t commit ground troops to either Iraq or Syria. Colum Lynch and Sean Naylor at Foreign Policy ponder that the greenlight given to the mission, its success, and the potential for a series of similar ground force missions.

Meanwhile, US Army veterans have raised their hands to join the fight against ISIS. ‘Veterans against ISIS’ is a group of 24 ex- Rangers, Marines and soldiers currently training before heading to Syria to fight alongside other local militias. The US military and White House have discouraged the practice but, unlike in Australia, it’s not illegal for Americans to fight overseas.

Turning to our region, WSJ’s blog ‘Japan Real Time’ provides a useful backgrounder on proposed changes to Japan’s Self-Defense Forces policy. In short, the changes will allow the SDF to aid allied foreign militaries and offer logistical support only if the SDF operate in accordance with UN charters and in circumstances deemed necessary to sustain Japan’s peace and security.

Lastly, The Christian Science Monitor discusses the top five most talked about techs from the Pentagon’s recent ‘lab day’. The top techs include a Batman suit and facial recognition binoculars.

Sea State

Japan is a serious contender to nab the SEA 1000 project, as news broke last week that the country is expected to provide Australia classified data on Soryu-class submarines. Previously, Japan has only ever shared information of this level of confidentially with its close military ally, the US.

HMAS Newcastle has officially commenced its first patrol as part of Operation MANITOU in the Middle East. Newcastle will contribute to the international security and stability effort which focus on counterterror, counter piracy and narcotics interdiction in regional waters.

A new Chinese submarine simulator has provided clues about the capabilities of China’s Type 095 vessel, which will enter service in two to four years. The Type 095 will potentially be China’s most stealthy nuclear-attack submarine, with ‘rapidly deployable global naval and land attack capability’, and will assist in protecting Chinese commercial and war vessels.

Finally, confused about who’s who and who wants what in the South China Sea? Have a listen to The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast this week for a breakdown of rising regional tensions over China’s land reclamation efforts and Southeast Asian reactions.

Flight Path

Continuing last week’s drone theme, the 2015 Unmanned Systems show last week in Atlanta provided a snapshot of future drone technology. For a look at the latest capabilities, Defense One provides a list of nine of the strangest flying robots from the drone show.

Turning to Chinese military capabilities, last Friday, the Pentagon released its annual report on the People’s Liberation Army. Considered by some as the Pentagon’s most detailed assessment of the near and medium term threats, the report highlights China’s plans to produce nearly 42,000 land-based and sea-based unmanned weapons and sensor platforms by 2023, as well as more longer-range UAVs and missiles. The report further confirmed China’s development of technologies designed to counter ballistic missile defence systems, and for the first time acknowledged the existence of the Wu-14 hypersonic glide vehicle—a strike weapon that travels at the edge of space at nearly Mach 10.

Adding to the military armaments in the Asia–Pacific region is the recent US State Department’s approval of the possible sale of 17 Bell-Boeing V-22 B Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft to Japan. The new platforms will be assigned to the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s new amphibious unit responsible for recapturing territory ‘without delay in case of any invasion of any remote islands’.

Rapid Fire

Russia’s new super tank the T-14 Armata was put on display last week during a dress rehearsal for the Victory Day parade in Moscow. Unfortunately, one of the eight tanks stopped suddenly whilst crossing the Red Square. Initial announcements attempted to play the fault off as part of a training exercise, but other accounts imply that the hiccup was due to human error.

Ashley’s War, a book released last month on women operating alongside Special Forces teams in Afghanistan, has caused a stir in the ‘women in combat’ debate. Its release comes coincides with news that the remaining eight women undergoing US Army Ranger course have failed to complete the first phase. However, they have qualified to redo the first phase of training next month.

After months of delays, moderate Syrian rebels have begun training under a coalition plan to boost efforts against the Islamic State. Ninety Syrians have gone through the lengthy process of recruitment and vetting before training. There will be 450 trainers, of which an estimated 350 are US soldiers; it’s currently unknown which other coalition countries will contribute the rest. Other questions about coalition responsibility to protect once the Syrian force begins conducting ground operations also remain.

On the tech side, BAE Systems have announced that they’re initiating production of an ‘integrated night vision targeting solution’ for ground forces in the field—basically night-vision goggle/weapon sight hybrid. Made under the US Army’s Enhanced Night Vision Goggle III and Family of Weapon Sight-Individual program, the display will merge night vision and thermal imaging for faster target acquisition and engagement.

Sea State

This week’s release of ministerial advice under freedom of information laws has revealed that by discussing the high likelihood of Japan winning the SEA 1000 contract last year, Prime Minister Abbott acted against  advice provided to government by the Department of Defence. Defence’s overwhelming preference was for the submarines to be built in Australia by ASC. Defence labelled a local build Australia’s only option for ‘assembly capability’, though it conceded that an international design partner would be required.

Also on future submarine fleets, The Diplomat released a piece on Thailand’s quest for three new submarines by 2020. The Bangkok Post reported on the possibility that the committee will propose to buy Chinese subs over other nations in contention, including South Korea, Russia, Germany and Sweden.

Navantia has launched Australia’s final fast landing craft. The 12 landing craft are expected to operate with the two Canberra-class LHD amphibious assault vessels, the second of which will commence operations in 2016.

And finally, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter has announced that an increased US presence in the Strait of Hormuz is there to stay. This comes as a response to two incidents in the last week: first, Pentagon officials announced that an American-flagged ship was harassed by patrol vessels belonging to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and second, a Marshall Islands-flagged shipping container was fired at and seized by the Guards.

Flight Path

Recent drone-related events such as them dropping radioactive sand onto the roof of the Japanese PM’s office or flying around the Eiffel Tower have brought to attention the risks posed to air defence systems by irregular unmanned systems. They tend to be controlled by amateurs seeking to cause mischief, but could be used to cause serious damage, or potentially to carry an explosive payload. The Economist discusses the serious challenges for drone detection and monitoring. It notes that while the technology for their detection appears more developed (acoustic and radar technology), drones remain a challenging target to defeat. The article identifies some useful options that include disrupting the control signal to cause an uncontrolled crash, hijacking the navigation by feeding fake GPS signals to the drone computer (also known as drone spoofing) and using other drones to hijack a rogue drone’s wireless connection to the operator. The use of a shotgun and nets to entangle rogue unmanned systems are other less sophisticated methods being considered. Washington State is contemplating making ‘nefarious drone enterprise‘ a felony.

A new research paper by academics from ETH Zurich and University of California allegedly provides instructions on how to hack a US military drone using spoofing attacks. It’s not known if the study has directly facilitated an attack on US drones, but the release of such information highlights the complex challenges for drone management.

In case you haven’t had enough drone news for one week, there’s even a Drone Law Journal blog.

Rapid Fire

With the ANZAC centenary having just passed, we’ve seen a renewed push to allow New Zealand citizens living in Australia to join the ADF. Currently anyone wanting to enlist must be an Australian citizen or a permanent resident, which rules out New Zealand citizens who reside in Australia long-term on a special category visa.

Ahead of the Special Operations Forces Industry Conference (SOFIC), US Special Operations Command has put the call out for vendors to make the Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit (TALOS) come to life. Early designs have the body armour resembling Tony Stark’s famous Iron Man suit, but it’s one that could be a reality by 2018.

Reports from Yemen over the weekend revealed what’s thought to be the beginning of a Saudi-led ground operation against Houthi rebels; the al-Ghad newspaper reported that an Arab ground force was seen entering the battle. The reports have been denied by Saudi officials, who’ve also declined to comment on follow up reporting from Al Jazeera of 40–50 Special Forces troops operating in Yemen.

For readers interested in Army’s LAND 400 project—a subject of ASPI’s forthcoming Army Force Structure Options conference—the May edition of Asia–Pacific Defence Reporter has an analysis of the tender process for Army’s new Mounted Combat Reconnaissance Vehicle.

Sea State

Earlier this week, tensions between the US and Iran in the Gulf of Aden eased when Iranian vessels suspected of carrying arms for the Houthi rebels in Yemen began a slow retreat towards their home port. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is now headed for the Arabian Gulf, while the nine Iranian ships are just off the coast of Oman.

The US Navy is set to deploy its first underwater drones by the end of the year, according to military.com. The drones—REMUS 600 Autonomous Underwater Vehicles—will be installed on the USN’s Virginia-class submarines. See The Diplomat’s discussion on the implications of the installation here. Also on US deployments, it’s been confirmed by USN Rear Admiral Charles Williams that two of the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ships will be forward deployed to Singapore from 2016.

Still in the Asia–Pacific, Chinese military websites released images of a model of a landing helicopter dock (LHD) amphibious assault ship last week, indicating potential design specifications and capabilities of the PLAN’s future amphibious vessel.

Finally, Defence Minister Kevin Andrews’ trip to Europe included a tour of the TKMS shipyards and meetings with his French and German counterparts. The meetings come on the back of a revelation that Japan was being dealt with on a government-to-government basis while dealings with fellow Future Submarine project contenders Germany and France were being pursued at a purely commercial level.

Flight Path

President Obama made big news last week when he apologised for US drone strikes which inadvertently killed two hostages (an American and an Italian) being held by al Qaeda in Pakistan. Despite launching a full review of the strike, Obama maintained that it was both legal and within the administration’s guidelines for using lethal weapons abroad and in counterterrorism operations. The incident raises questions about the limitations of intensive intelligence gathering, as well as the rules for ‘signature strikes’—that is, targeting individuals based on tell-tale al Qaeda behaviour as opposed to positive identification.

Saudi Arabia last week announced the end of their bombing campaign in Yemen—known as Operation Decisive Storm—to later launch Operation Restoring Hope, a new counterterrorism-focused phase. Mark Stout from War on the Rocks draws on WWII bombing strategies to provide some strategic and moral lessons for the Saudi air campaign in Yemen.

The F-35 is facing criticism again, this time thanks to a new report from the US Government Accountability Office which outlines significant lifetime affordability challenges. The report also found major weaknesses in the use of a concurrent development cycle which saw numerous companies independently manufacturing a range of individual components without a focus on compatibility.

Rapid Fire

This past weekend marked the 100th Anniversary of the ANZAC landing in Gallipoli. The Huffington Post paid tribute to the event with a ‘then and now’ gallery that juxtaposes images from 1915 and 2015. While there has been no shortage of commentary commemorating the memories and sacrifice of the ANZACs, Peter Hartcher argues that we are missing the most important part of honouring history and the lessons we haven’t learnt.

The Gallipoli memory has also reignited the debate on mental health in the ADF, with John Mendoza, the former chairman of the National Advisory Council on Mental Health, calling for increased investment in mental health research and PTSD treatment.

Finally, the display of capabilities in Islamic State’s most recent propaganda video has impressed some military analysts. One anonymous former British Special Forces officer is even quoted saying that Islamic State is ‘better trained, more motivated, better led and supported’ than Iraq forces.