Tag Archive for: General

Empowering command and building amphibious culture

An Australian Army soldier onboard a United States Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft at Bradshaw field training area, Northern Territory, during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2015.

The ADF currently lacks the tradition, culture and organisational expertise to maintain and deploy a world class amphibious warfare capability. The current command and control (C2) structures don’t adequately address the high degree of specialisation needed to meet the likely demands of Australia’s emerging amphibious warfare capability.

One of the main reasons that countries with a genuine amphibious warfare capability have developed specialised C2 units is because of the inherent complexities in the planning and execution of ship-to-objective manoeuvre operations. In most cases, militaries have found that it’s desirable to have a standing C2 organisation for the amphibious taskforce as well as a standing landing force C2 element.

While the ADF has a designated Commander Amphibious Task Force (CATF) and staff, the Army currently plans to rely on the commander of 2nd Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment (2RAR) and his staff to both raise, train and sustain key elements of the ground combat element (GCE) and to serve as Commander of the Landing Force (CLF). The commander and staff of 2RAR are likely (if they are not already) to experience task overload, especially in the more complex missions that involve an amphibious ready group.

In addition currently the CATF is an O6 (Navy Captain), and the commander of 2RAR is an O5 (Army Lieutenant Colonel). Amphibious Warfare is complex and as such requires a permanent headquarters element that has the command authority over the elements assigned to support amphibious operations. In order to create clear and structured C2 the Chief of Defence and the service chiefs should establish a permanent land component headquarter element for amphibious warfare that is under the control of the Joint Staffed Amphibious Task Group (ATG).

The headquarter elements will be required to coordinate multi-service force-generation cycles, lead strategic shaping (engagement) operations, and be prepared for both crisis response and major contingency operations. The ATG and its component CLF and CATF command elements will be force employers, and the services should take on their proper roles as amphibious force generators, tasked with raising, training and sustaining the elements that will be assigned to the ATG.

In order to achieve these measures this new joint structure would establish a permanent command and control architecture with a joint staff-enabled Commander of the ATG with permanent component staffs. This will provide valuable continuity and the expertise needed to manage complex amphibious operations.

C2 however is but one key area that the ADF needs to evolve to ensure a world-class amphibious warfare capability. Some impressive work has been done over recent years to facilitate institutional and cultural change including; the embedding of US Marine Corps and Royal Marines officers into the ADF, lateral transfers from the Royal Marines and Royal Navy, and spending millions of dollars on sending ADF personnel to study US amphibious warfare. But there is a still a long way to go to equip the force with the necessary skills and culture for this capability to thrive.

In order to evolve the capability, the ADF must now move beyond temporary structures and foreign training. It should establish the means to imbed amphibious knowledge and skills across the force by bringing together expertise to enable the development and sustainment of the capability.

We firmly believe that the ADF needs to invest in the development of a joint Amphibious Centre of Excellence (ACE), which would provide a core of amphibious experts from across the services to deliver training and education courses in both the single service and joint environments.

It could deliver programs in individual training in areas from landing/assault craft and beach recovery to amphibious planning, ship to objective manoeuvre operations, logistics, joint fires and airspace management. It would also develop and deliver courses for the various units and headquarters across the Army, Navy and Air Force. Ultimately the ACE would become the hub for the intellectual and cultural development of an amphibious warfare capability.

The creation of an ACE will embed expertise within the ADF, draw together the various threads of amphibious knowledge and expertise, and bring training and education together in a joint environment, firmly based on Australian doctrine and tactics, techniques and procedures—as opposed to those from overseas military forces. Furthermore, the ACE would enhance opportunities for amphibious specialists from all three services for postings and career advancement.

The ACE should also aim to be a regional as well as national centre of excellence. It could play an important role in building partner capacity through participation in the Defence Cooperation Program and having overseas military students on select courses and programs.

By cementing C2 structures and developing the ACE, Australia would be able to grow the culture and organisational expertise necessary for a world class amphibious capability. 

The Beat, CT Scan and Checkpoint

More than one thousand French farmers obstructed roads from Spain and Germany trying to stop livestock and dairy products from entering France amid claims foreign competition has fuelled plunging food prices.

The Beat

Stopping the pirates

Australians take out the dubious honour of being some of the top illegal downloaders of film and television content. A study commissioned by the Department of Communications reveals the top three factors which would discourage pirating are cheaper legitimate services, easier access to desired content, and content available locally at the same time as overseas. Changes in entertainment content business models could curb piracy, although efforts to reduce illegal downloading of Game of Thrones were only partially successful.

Tough on drugs?

Police in Durham, England have announced that they’ll no longer actively pursue small-scale cannabis growers, claiming this will divert resources to bigger priorities. But it’s unclear if this is actually a step towards decriminalisation of drugs, with Policing Minister Mike Penning reaffirming that growing cannabis can lead to imprisonment.

Closer to home, ABC2’s Australians on Drugs provides some raw perspectives on drug use, its impacts and what law enforcement and health professional are doing.

Canine colleagues on the Beat

One year ago, Australian sniffer dogs were assisting the AFP in the recovery of remains from the MH17 crash site in Ukraine. For their efforts, congratulations are in order for Bertie, Larry and Prue who have been sworn as Human Remains Detection Specialist Dogs with Queensland Police. Here’s to our four-legged friends playing a vital role in some very difficult policing work!

 

CT Scan

The death of Mullah Omar

Yesterday, Afghanistan confirmed that the Taliban leader Mullah Omar died two years ago in Pakistan. The announcement ends years of speculation about the Omar’s death, who hasn’t been publicly seen since the Taliban fell in 2001. See here for background to the man who’s making global headlines. As for his role in the extremist group, journalist Bette Dam, says that he was more of a figurehead: ‘there was no military strategy coming from Mullar Omar, not in 2001, not in 2005, not in 2010’.

Counter-Terrorism Strategy released

The Australian Government launched its new five-point Counter-Terrorism Strategy last week. Justice Minister Michael Keenan discusses the Strategy here (48 mins). While there has been some scholarly support, other experts argue that the document is a framework, not a strategy; it lacks clear priorities and directions for how its goals can be achieved.

Schoolyard extremism

While the UK’s drawn global attention for its strategy to prevent extremism in schools, Australia and the US have also made moves along this path. Responding to revelations that Islamist extremism was preached at lunchtimes in a Sydney school, the NSW Government’s announced an audit of all prayer groups in public schools. In the US, a software company is trialling a monitoring system that allows officials to pick up key words on school computers, including the acronym ‘YODO’ (You Only Die Once).

Facing the Bali bombers

SBS aired the first instalment of its two-part special, ‘Meet the Terrorists’, in which Jan Laczynski, a man who lost five friends in the Bali Bombings, sits down with perpetrators and victims of the attack. In explaining his involvement, Laczynski explains that ‘meeting a terrorist is the hardest thing you’ll ever do’.

 

Checkpoint

Maritime piracy escalates in Southeast Asia

The International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reported a nearly 50% increase of piracy activity in Southeast Asia during the first half this year. This year’s incidents represent two thirds of the entire global piracy activity, which amounted to 134 attacks. As IMB’s data gives no sign of piracy incidents off the coast of Somalia, the Strait of Malacca emerges as the most concerning cross point for ships in Southeast Asia and the world.

Food prices in France sparked border roadblocks

More than one thousand French farmers obstructed roads from Spain and Germany trying to stop livestock and dairy products from entering France amid claims foreign competition has fuelled plunging food prices. The roadblocks also sparked tensions in the EU as Spanish and German unions urged Paris and Brussels to ensure goods could flow freely through Europe.

Thailand called to enhance response against human trafficking

The US Department of State Human Trafficking Report (PDF) rated Thailand yet again in Tier 3, that is, countries ‘whose governments do not fully comply with the minimum standards’ and ‘are not making significant efforts’ to comply with the Trafficking Victims Protection Act’s (TVPA) minimum standards. Amidst the shortcoming, Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said the country expects to be removed from the ‘black list’ next year. Malaysia, on the other hand, was upgraded from Tier 3 to Tier 2, drawing accusations of ‘politicisation’ of the rankings, amid trade talks between Kuala Lumpur and Washington.

The ADF and amphibious warfare: strategic guidance and joint capability development

United States Marines Corps V-22 Ospreys from 265th Tiltrotor Squadron, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, land at Fog Bay Northern Territory, during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2015.The ADF has developed a detailed, integrated and truly joint plan to develop and validate an impressive amphibious warfare capability by mid-2017 as part of Exercise Talisman Sabre. However this powerful joint force element will only be a proof of concept. It won’t yet be a sustainable on-call capability or ‘ready’ force.

Indeed, the ADF has yet to approve any conceptual plans for the sustainment of a joint amphibious warfare capability past 2017. It has yet to determine requirements for the joint readiness levels, the integrated joint force generation plan or even the mission expectations for the joint amphibious force. Significant capability gaps and shortfalls have been identified and require solutions.

There are only a few months left until the scheduled release of the Defence White Paper. This is an opportunity for the Australian government to clarify the expectations of Australia’s post 2017 amphibious force.

The strategic outlook for our primary operating environment means that we require the ability to conduct independent operations, operate in ‘uncertain’ environments against non-peer military forces and irregular threats as part of a larger coalition, and to conduct regional engagement.

The ADF’s amphibious capability needs to be a robust, scalable force that’s able to mobilise quickly; This would give the ADF the ability to act decisively in a crisis. Thus it’s essential for the forthcoming Defence White Paper and Force Structure Review to emphasise the importance of joint warfare.

In preparation for 2017, the ADF has established a network of players that have been coordinating the development of amphibious warfare capability. The organisations and committees involved have been characterised by some as ‘non-permanent’ or ‘temporary’. While the work has been impressive, the committees and working groups are highly reliant on consensus and most realise that this structure will have to evolve.

The Deployable Joint Force Headquarters concept of employment for the ADF’s amphibious capability has identified 19 capability gaps and shortfalls, most of which revolve around the integration of service systems and the procurement of major systems and equipment unique to amphibious operations.

Some of these capabilities shortfalls are being addressed but many are not. For example there is currently no planned procurement of an unmanned aerial system, which is a critical need for the effectiveness of Australia’s amphibious capability. The intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) gained would be delivered to all services but no single service has taken responsibility for capability provision. The unmanned aerial system would require aerial platforms supplied by the RAAF, a RAN vessel for launch, and will be used for operational and tactical ISR for both Navy and Army. There is no clearly identified capability manager.

Currently the Chief of the Navy is the lead Capability Manager (in coordination with the Chief of the Army) but in reality decisions are dependent on a hierarchical committee system that relies heavily on consensus. This system is cumbersome and complicated for generating needs statements and capability solutions.

Until such a time as a direct joint capabilities manager is identified, the conflicting needs of the services will work against any clear definition of the ADF’s amphibious requirements.  This is evident in the lack of consideration of amphibious warfare needs in current services procurement plans, notably LAND 400.

In order to ensure that the ADF joint amphibious force is relevant, sustainable and suitable for the operations discussed above, the Defence Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Force should establish a permanent and empowered joint capability management system responsible for amphibious capability.

A truly integrated joint system will force the services to cooperate and come to agreements on how to fill or mitigate amphibious capability gaps. A joint capability manager would also define the user needs and coordinate submissions to government on future procurements.

The First Principles Review contains recommendations that may alleviate  friction in the current system and streamline joint capabilities integration. But the effectiveness of these recommendations will depend on the legislated authority of the Chief of the Defence Force and Vice-Chief of the Defence Force to direct and manage the development of  the ADF’s amphibious warfare capability.

Sea, air and land updates

MH-60R in flight

Sea State

The Taiwanese Navy will procure eight to ten MH-60R Seahawk anti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopters in a US$700–800 million deal  under the US Foreign Military Sales program, with a letter of acceptance expected in 2016. The Seahawks, which are designed to operate from frigates, destroyers, cruisers and aircraft carriers, will replace the current MD500 Defender helicopters, which were originally procured in 1980.

For an all-encompassing update on China’s muscle flexing in the South China Sea and its intentions to become a global maritime power, have a look at the video of The Aspen Institute’s panel discussion on the topic. Featuring PACOM’s Admiral Harry B. Harris, Bonnie Glaser from CSIS, author Gordon Chang and Time’s Massimo Calabresi as moderator, the panel touches on a range of interesting questions, from whether missiles located on the built-up features in the South China Sea could harm US shipping interests, to the likelihood of military confrontation between the US and China.

And finally, as well as participating in the competitive evaluation process for RAN’s future submarines, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems is increasing its efforts for the SEA 5000 campaign. A brochure for the Blohm + Voss MEKO A-400RAN frigate design—first made public at ASPI’s Future Surface Fleet conference earlier this year by the company’s Senior Vice President, Rear Admiral Jonathan Kamerman—has now been printed.

Flight Path

Turkey last week approved the use of Incirlik Air Base by US forces for coalition strike operations against the Islamic State. The move is set to improve operational efficiency by reducing travel time and enabling longer duration flights and larger payloads.

Last week also marked a significant shift in Turkey’s campaign against the Islamic State, when it launched airstrikes against IS and PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) targets in Syria and Iraq on Friday. While Turkey has attributed its decision to a natural response to the growing threat at its borders, others suggest it’s just as much about the Kurds carving their own state in northern Syria.

Still in the Middle East, Israel has given its 16 surplus Bell AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters to Jordan, in order to bolster its neighbour’s border defences against the Islamic State. The deal was approved by the US and is part of its wider effort to build up Amman’s military capabilities against IS.

In helicopter news, it looks like Lockheed Martin’s recent $9 billion purchase of Sikorsky Helicopters from United Technologies might be a gamble. The Economist writes that the helicopter business is on the decline after a decade of booming sales. This is attributed to a combination of low demand from the oil-and-gas industry, declining defence budgets and the development of advanced drone substitutes.

Rapid Fire

Iraqi troops trained by the US-led coalition have been deployed for the first time. An estimated 3,000 soldiers from the Iraq army have taken up positions around Ramadi, with progress reportedly being made to reclaim the city.

The US has also been training troops in Ukraine. Currently around 300 US soldiers are training members of the Ukrainian National Guard in western Ukraine who operate separately to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence. This program is set to expand later this year, with plans to begin also training front line soldiers.

Last Thursday, leaders from France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine agreed that preliminary accords to extend a pull-back of weapons in eastern Ukraine should be signed quickly. This will include tanks, small weapons systems and heavy artillery. All this comes alongside General Mark Milley—the next chief of staff of the US Army—telling a Senate Armed Services Committee last week that Russia is currently the ‘number one threat’ to the US.

With drones becoming ever more popular, the US Army has developed mechanisms to take them down. Specifically, the Army is looking at using its EAPS system designed to counter rockets, artillery and mortars against UAVs. A truck-mounted chain gun fires projectiles that can be course-corrected in flight, eventually exploding into shrapnel which destroys the drone.

The Beat, CT Scan and Checkpoint

The Cuban flag is raised over Havana's embassy in Washington DC

The Beat

AML/CTF laws a safe bet

Australia’s financial intelligence agency Austrac has taken legal action against betting giant Tabcorp for noncompliance of anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing laws. Austrac describes non-compliance as a potential risk to the integrity of Australia’s financial system, with the maximum penalty for this offence reaching $17 million.

Portuguese model on drugs

Greens leader and co-convenor of the Australian Parliamentary Group on Drugs Law Reform, Richard Di Natale, has called for a new approach to tackling drugs based on ‘the Portuguese model’. Instead of being processed though the criminal system, Portuguese drug users are given access to drug treatment programs financed by the money saved from law enforcement.

There’s some support for the Portuguese model across Parliament, with a Liberal spokeswoman acknowledging that the current process isn’t working, and a Labor spokesman supporting treating drugs as a health rather than criminal issue.

Women on the Beat

NSW celebrates 100 years of women in policing this week, with women responsible for ‘incredible’ cultural change since 1915. Women now comprise almost 35% of the force in areas as wide as the Mounted Police Unit and domestic violence liaison. Despite this progress, further efforts are needed to address the under representation of women on the force.

CT Scan

British laws

This week, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced the UK’s five-year plan to combat extremism. At the core of the reforms is a promotion of liberal values across various levels of society. Ultimately, Cameron says, our values are the ‘strongest weapon’ against tackling extremism. See here for a summary.

Cameron’s strategy was praised for recognising the need to win the battle of ideas. But focussing on ideology didn’t sit well with counter-terrorism expert Professor Andrew Silke. He argues that ideology isn’t the key motivator that drives terrorists: it’s the desire to fight for a perceived worthy cause.

Suicide bombings in China

A man detonated a bomb in eastern China on Monday, killing two people and injuring 24. Shannan Tiezzi at The Diplomat analyses the incident in the context of a string of recent suicide bombings in China, concluding that many weren’t acts of terrorism. Unlike the attacks in Xinjiang perpetrated by ethnic Uyghurs, the majority of suicide bombings in China are driven by personal grievances against the local government.

African-bred Islamism

While most eyes are on terrorism in the Middle East, Africa’s got a new problem—‘Islamism is the continent’s new ideology of protest’. The Economist maps how various extremist groups are spreading throughout Africa, exploiting Islamism’s ability to transcend tribal dynamics.

 

Checkpoint

Cuban flag flies back to Washington after 54 years

On Monday, the Cuban flag was raised over Havana’s embassy in Washington for the first time in 54 years. After two years of negotiation, The United States and Cuba formally restored diplomatic relations despite the commercial embargo remaining in place. This symbolic move marks a new post-Cold War era for both countries, as does the US removing Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

While re-established diplomatic ties were praised by Cubans in the US, some in Cuba fear this could be the beginning of the end of the ‘wet foot, dry foot’ policy which grants Cubans reaching American soil residential status. With only 150 kilometres separating the countries, it’s expected that illegal migration flows will increase.

Turkey’s terrorism fears become real

Earlier this year, Checkpoint commented on Ankara’s concerns over possible terrorist attacks on Turkish soil amidst demographic changes along its Syrian border. On Monday, in what the Government described the first Islamic State (IS) attack in Turkey, more than 30 people were killed and 100 injured in the Kurdish border town of Suruc. This has rushed the Government to increase security to reduce risks and ease tensions among Kurdish people who accused Ankara of failing to do more to stop IS.

Sea, air and land updates

Edited USAF image of a B-52 bomber flying at sunset.

Sea State

It’s been an interesting week for anyone following the developments in the South China Sea. US Commander of the Pacific Fleet Admiral Scott Swift took a trip in one of the USN’s newest spy planes over disputed waters, a decision that will ‘likely irk’ the PLA.

But while there’s a lot of talk about hard military capability in the region, The New York Times has run an interesting piece on how the Philippines’ claim against China is tracking at The Hague, stating that it’s ‘not surprising’ that claimants would seek to protect their interests through legal means.

In a similar vein, The Diplomat has run an essay on the ways that humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) could be used to cool off regional tensions. The authors argue that it isn’t the explicit tensions that we should be trying to resolve, but general mistrust of Chinese behaviour, which could be mitigated by recognising China’s land reclamations under the condition of joint usage by all stakeholders for HADR operations.

Finally, the Indian Navy has encouraged overseas contractors to register their interest by tomorrow (22 July) to design a new aircraft carrier. Letters of request were sent to BAE Systems, DCNS, Lockheed Martin and Rosoboronexport mid-last week, following the Indian ministry of defence’s allocation of US$4.83 million to the project, which will be their second indigenous carrier.

 

Flight path

Last week, news emerged that 20 British personnel (including three pilots) had been conducting airstrikes over Syria while embedded with US and Canadian forces. While some UK parliamentarians insist servicemen should be withdrawn given that Parliament opposed military intervention in Syria in 2013, others, including the former chief of the air staff, Sir Michael Graydon argue the exchange programme with allies is a valuable and long established practice. The line is a little blurred: while embedded personnel operate under the mandate of the foreign force, they also remain ‘subject of UK law, policy and military jurisdiction’.

On 1 July, two USAF B-52 bombers conducted a nonstop, long-range simulated bombing mission to Australia. Named a ‘bomber assurance and deterrence’ (BAAD) mission, the 44-hour flight simulated an attack on the Delamere test range and used inert conventional bombs. Despite efforts to downplay the mission as directed at China, the flights were still described by US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel John Varilek as exercises to assure US allies and deter its foes.

The C-130 plane crash that killed 140 people in Indonesia last month drew attention to Indonesia’s aging aviation fleet. Last week, the Indonesian Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu announced plans to decommission all military aircraft more than 30 years old. Over at The Diplomat, Prashanth Parameswaran however notes this won’t be easy, given that 52% of the military’s aircraft fall into this category. He emphasises the importance of properly contextualising the challenge to prevent misunderstanding and to manage expectations.

 

Rapid Fire

Last Thursday Islamic State-affiliated group ‘Sinai Province of the Islamic State’ claimed credit for a rocket attack on an Egyptian naval vessel. The incident is reminiscent of a missile attack on an Israeli Patrol boat by Hezbollah back in 2006 and demonstrates the ability of non-state actors to successfully deploy sophisticated weaponry.

Three women have progressed to the Mountain Phase in US Ranger School training, showing progress in women advancing to combat roles in the US military. For the Marines however, tension is brewing over the dismissal of the leader of a Marine Corps all-women boot camp. Former Marine, Elliot Ackerman, gives his opinion on gender integration in the Marine Corps, saying that the challenge is institutional not physical. Last week US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter continued the push for equality by announcing plans to lift the current ban on openly transgender people serving in the military.

The previously discussed and highly controversial exercise Jade Helm 15 kicked off last Wednesday. In a great shock to nobody important, the US military didn’t immediately impose martial law over Texas. In fact citizens have reported noticing little activity since the training exercise commenced.

Finally, Defense One technology editor Patrick Tucker gives an overview of tech changes expected over the next ten years to equip and modernise soldiers.

The Beat, CT Scan and Checkpoint

Evading capture ...

The Beat

Mexican drug lord makes escape

Following his high-profile  arrest in 2014, Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman has escaped from Altiplano prison using a tunnel he allegedly built himself. This isn’t the first time he‘s escaped from jail, and it’s suggested that prison officials may have been complicit in the escape.

There are concerns Guzman could reclaim his influential role in the Sinaloa drug cartel . Should this happen, Guzman’s reach is such that his return to power could have ramifications as far as Australia.

Extreme measures to counter wildlife crime

Wildlife trafficking provides a concerning source of revenue for organised criminals. So scientists in Madagascar are permanently marking the shells of Ploughshare tortoises to prevent them being attractive to traffickers. The technique may attract some criticism, but also indicate the lengths scientists are prepared to go to protect endangered species that are targeted by poachers.

Very unique set of (canine) skills

Finally, our four-legged friends’ contributions to law enforcement are expanding beyond sniffing for drugs or explosives. Several dogs in the US have been trained to sniff out electronic devices such as thumb drives and hard drives at crime scenes which can take humans much longer to find. This training was of use recently, when dogs  found poignant evidence in an investigation of child pornography, indicating a new canine role in countering organised crime.

CT Scan

Countering Islamic State

How can we win ideological battles against Islamic State? Over at the Small Wars Journal, Ajit Maan explains that an effective narrative strategy has two interactive components—one that communicates the need for military action, and another that counters the enemy’s message. Maan argues that it’s our ability to defeat Islamic State’s narrative that will determine the likelihood of a military victory. Ultimately, Maan says, ‘we can kill bad guys with drones but bad ideas don’t die that way’.

Christina Nemr at War on the Rocks sees things differently. She writes that facts won’t change extremists’ minds, because people tend to disregard information that contradicts their beliefs. Instead, she suggests appealing to people’s values and motivations. Anthony Bergin and I made a similar point on Monday: that reinvigorating Australian values could help prevent home-grown extremism.

Pushback against UK’s CT laws

New counterterrorism laws came into force in the UK this month, placing  the duty of preventing extremism on various public bodies—including schools, prisons and local councils. But a recent open letter signed by nearly 300 prominent British figures condemned the laws as stifling free speech and stoking distrust in British Muslims. A Home Office spokesperson labelled the criticisms ‘simplistic’, citing the strategy’s recognition that there’s no single cause of radicalisation.

Checkpoint

Australia calls for MH17 tribunal

Nearly a year after Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was taken down at the Russia—Ukraine Border, Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop has urged the UN Security Council to establish an international tribunal to judge those involved in the downing of the plane, in which 298 people lost their lives, including 38 Australians.

Australia was joined by Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Ukraine in recognised the need for an independent criminal investigation to send a sound message that such actions won’t be tolerated for the sake of international civil aviation.

Guatemala joints hunt for ‘El Chapo’

This week The Beat highlighted Mexican Drug Lord Joaquin Guzman’s scape from prison. In following the manhunt, Guatemala’s Interior Ministry has deployed a special task force along its northern border in a collaborative effort to recapture Mexico’s most wanted man.

The timely security boost comes as ‘Popeye’, Pablo Escobar’s former hitman advised ‘El Chapo’ to head to the mountains in Guatemala, arm himself and declare an all-out war on the Mexican government in order to force them to come to an agreement with him.

Sea, air and land updates

F-16 Chase Plane Lockheed MartinSea State

In a move that’s shocked the Asia–Pacific and rattled the US, Thailand’s military government has announced that it will purchase Chinese submarines. There are several likely reasons for this decision, which effectively moves the country away from the western orbit. After Thailand’s military coup in May 2014, reduced US presence at the annual Cobra Gold military exercises led to tensions between the two countries, as did the US’s ‘cold shoulder’ when it came to planning future exercises. Thai generals also found support from Beijing in both the 2006 and 2014 coups. The US$1 billion purchase of three Type 039A attack submarines took place last week, and is expected to exacerbate the drift in US-Thai relations.

The UAV debate is so ten years ago—now, it’s all about unmanned naval systems. Check out David Blagden’s piece at War on the Rocks, which looks at DARPA’s Anti-Submarine Warfare Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel (ACTUV) project. ACTUV, if realised, will allow the US Navy to maintain a surface trail on its adversaries’ submarines to overcome the threats they pose to US freedom of maritime manoeuvre. But what impact will this technology have on the survivability of western nuclear arsenals and, as a result, strategic stability? Read here to find out.

And finally, will Japan become a permanent fixture in the US and India’s Malabar naval exercises? Ankit Panda at The Diplomat discusses the strategic impact of Japan’s potential inclusion.

Flight path

If you missed the uproar last week about the F-35’s limited performance against a much older F-16, ASPI’s Andrew Davies makes sense of the recent tests, and explains that there are other more serious questions to be raised about the F-35. However, the critiques have continued. Joseph Trevithick from War is Boring has questioned the F-35’s long-range fighting capability, arguing that the F-35’s limited sensors, compromised stealth and too few weapons leaves it outclassed even in a long-range fight.

It doesn’t seem that Australia’s likely to operate two different models of the F-35. Plans to purchase up to 12 short-take-off and vertical-landing F-35Bs for Navy’s two Canberra-class amphibious ships have reportedly been dropped due to significant costs related to ship modification.

Chinese news media reported last week that China’s air force (notably labelled China’s ‘strategic force’) is in need of a long-range strategic bomber capable of striking adversaries in the second island chain­, which stretches from Japan through to Guam and Indonesia. Whether or not China’s aviation industry can deliver a bomber within a short period of time is another matter.

Last Friday Airbus completed the ‘first’ all-electric flight across the English Channel. While the title is contested by a French pilot who completed the same flight a day earlier, their successes mark positive advances in electric and hybrid aviation.

Rapid Fire

The 2nd Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment has begun training aboard the amphibious ship HMAS Canberra. The training follows the decision to have 2RAR as the Army’s dedicated amphibious unit. Training will culminate in a joint amphibious warfare validation exercise during Talisman Sabre in 2017, with post-2017 plans yet to be finalised.

The logistics of the planned cut of 40,000 soldiers from the US Army were announced last week, alongside an additional reduction of 17,000 civilian roles. The plan is to reduce Army numbers from 490,000 to 450,000 by the end of the 2017 financial year. To put these numbers into perspective, the Australian Army currently has less than 30,000 full-time military personnel and less than 19,000 active reservists.

Rumour has it that Russia is considering reinvigorating plans from the 1980’s to develop tanks with laser capability to blind enemy cameras, scopes and seekers. Due to an outrageous price tag and limited capability there’s little chance of laser tanks making a comeback

Finally, for those who missed ASPI’s ‘Army’s Future Force Structure Review Options’ Conference last month, videos from the conference can now be found on ASPI’s YouTube channel.

The Beat, CT Scan and Checkpoint

The Beat

Mafia influencing Australian business and politics: part 2

The ABC/Fairfax investigation into organised crime in Australia has hit the international news, with Italian prosecutor Nicola Gratteri warning that increased focus on terrorism allows unwatched organised criminals to flourish. In light of such reports, there’s never been a better time to have that difficult conversation with business and the community about organised crime, as David Connery and I outline.

Kiwi sandwich gangs

New Zealand has the largest number of gang members per capita worldwide. But a recent Dateline report presents a different side of criminal gangs, showing their involvement in community life, such as those making sandwiches every school day for kids who would otherwise go without.

Whilst police have remained wary of the gangs, a more trusting relationship has developed through long-term involvement with community organisations like the Taitimu Trust, which brings together and supports vulnerable young people, providing them with a sense of belonging alternative to a gang. Sociologist Jarrod Gilbert comments that gangs change as their members mature, noting they tend to commit less violent crime beyond the age of 40.  VICE recently ran this interview and photo essay highlighting NZ’s Mongrel Mob.

New law enforcement support

The New South Wales Custody Notification Scheme has been granted federal funding. With no indigenous deaths in custody recorded in NSW since the scheme began, NSW indigenous affairs Minister Nigel Scullion hopes the scheme can be rolled out across Australia, with Western Australian premier Colin Barnett expressing an interest. Renewed funding in NSW could even be an impetus for expanding the program.

CT Scan

What have we learnt about radicalisation?

Experts converged in the UK this week for briefings on six areas of research into radicalisation, from social networks, the internet and lone wolves to what we can learn from cults. Highlights include a briefing from Melbourne University’s David Malet, who provides a sober analysis of the impact of foreign fighters on radicalisation at home. See here to read and listen to the briefings.

A Danish man has set out his extremism journey, highlighting the influential role his Muslim mentor played in the deradicalisation process. The mentoring strategy is a component of the Aarhus Model, an initiative set up to turn young Danes away from fighting for al-Qaeda or Islamic State.

The Virtual Caliphate

Check out Quilliam’s new report ‘The Virtual Caliphate’, which looks deep into Islamic State’s propaganda since June 2014. Over at Jihadology, Cori E. Dauber and Mark Robinson dissect how the group uses compositional elements of production to create its infamous ‘Hollywood quality’ propaganda.

7/7 anniversary

Tuesday marked 10 years since the 2005 London bombings. Jason Burke at The Guardian explains how the bombings marked a new era of uncertainty for the world. But for Gill Hicks, a survivor of the bombings who lost her legs, the event fuelled her ‘positive anger’ that drives her current deradicalisation work.

Checkpoint

Border dispute: UN called upon

Unclear demarcation and alleged encroachment by Vietnam have increased Cambodian concerns for stability in Svay Rieng province Recent clashes involving opposition party officials from Cambodia and security personnel from Vietnam compelled Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to host a bilateral border meeting to ease the volatile situation.

Despite cooperative efforts, Vietnam’s claims over Cambodia’s alleged use of ‘controversial’ maps to settle the dispute has stalled demarcation talks, leaving the border still unsettled in many places. Prime Minister Hun Sen has now requested that the UN provide their official border maps in the hope that the border demarcation process can be resumed.

Sea, air and land updates

A RAAF Base Darwin Air Movements Section member marshalls in a No. 33 Squadron KC-30A Multi Role Tanker Transport aircraft as it delivers 190 personnel from the Townsville-based 2nd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment for Exercise Talisman Sabre 2015.Sea State

The two-week long Talisman Sabre exercise began on Sunday, with 40 Japanese personnel joining Australian, New Zealand and American forces for the first time. John Lee, a China specialist from the University of Sydney, was quick to note the message that the Allies are sending to their Chinese counterparts by including Japan in the training exercises. For a slightly different take, have a look at opinions from ASPI’s Andrew Davies and ANU’s John Blaxland here. This year’s Talisman Sabre will focus on ‘the planning and conduct of mid-intensity and high-end’ warfare.

Senior Captain Zhao Yi, a professor at China’s National Defence University, has warned India about the dangers of believing that the Indian Ocean is part of its ‘backyard’. The comes in the wake of the release of the PLA’s White Paper, which highlights that the PLA’s navy will be enhanced for ‘open seas protection’. Zhao argued that the possibility of regional clashes can’t be eliminated unless India changes its rhetoric. India’s concern over China’s push into the Indian Ocean has been spurred by a number of events, including when Chinese submarines popped up in Sri Lanka last year and Pakistan last month.

The Diplomat has run a piece outlining the construction timeline of Russia’s new naval facility, the Rybachiy Nuclear Submarine Base. According to Admiral Viktor Chirkov, the Russian Navy’s Commander in Chief, Russia’s Borei-class submarines will have a new home by 1 October.

Flight Path

Ever wondered what a war between China and the US would look like? Peter W. Singer and August Cole’s new fictional novel Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War does just that. The most interesting aspect of the hypothesis relates to America losing its technological advantage to rising Chinese innovation. Two notable aspects contributing to the US’ technological decline are aircraft carriers and over-engineered and over-promised aircraft. According to The Economist, the authors hint at the need to spend more money on dogfighting drones and weapons—like laser beams—that can engage faster than missiles. For more, you can listen to a War on the Rocks podcast with the authors here.

Speaking of dogfights, aviation wonks have been in overdrive since a leaked report found the F-35 Join Strike Fighter is incapable of beating the F-16 in a dogfight. The test pilot found the F-35 had limited energy manoeuvrability (making it ineffective for killing or surviving attacks) and an over-large mobility limiting helmet. Despite the critique, proponents of the F-35 have reiterated that it was never designed for dogfighting scenarios, and rather, it was designed to overcome rival aircraft at a medium- to long-range distance. While some argue the goal of aerial combat is to achieve victory then avoid potential counterattack, critics point out that there’s no way to guarantee a future air war without dogfights.

Rapid Fire

Brookings recently hosted the first ‘Brookings Debate,’ with experts seeking to answer the question: should the US put boots on the ground to fight ISIS? A before and after poll of the audience indicated that while few opinions changed, those that did switched to the ‘no’ camp.

Critics of the US plan to open all combat roles to women in 2016 argue that even if roles are opened there won’t be enough interest to warrant the change. Australia could be a strong case for this argument as despite opening all its roles to women in 2011 to encourage a more gender inclusive environment, women still constitute only 14% of the Australian Defence Force. Dr Megan McKenzie, author of Beyond the Band of Brothers: the US Military and the Myth that Women Can’t Fight, argues that simply opening those roles to women isn’t sufficient to support gender equality and that more directed strategies need to be devised, such as targeting a cultural change in leadership roles.

Finally, International Business Times looks into the ‘Caliphate Army’ of Islamic State and the role of its so-called Special Forces Division. The elite unit is reportedly made up of 4,000 troops, many of whom are foreign fighters and selected for their previous combat experience.