The Beat

Private and public sectors meet to counter terrorism financing

Indonesian and Australian officials met with experts in Sydney this week for the first regional counterterrorism financing summit. The summit, attended by French Consul General Nicolas Crozier, began with a minute’s silence for the victims of the Paris attacks. The meeting comes at a crucial time and highlights the centrality of disrupting the resources that enable violent extremism.

Austrac’s Paul Jevtovic provided an analysis on the estimated tripling of suspicious transactions by drawing on examples of intelligence sharing from Australia and Indonesia’s law enforcement relationship. AFP Commissioner Andrew Colvin cited engagement with the private sector as crucial, drawing attention to new financing resources which are less sophisticated and more accessible and calling for businesses to take an innovative approach to teasing out the patterns and implications that terrorism financing create.

(Minority) report on predictive policing

Despite constrained resources, police in the US are capitalising on big data to assist their activities. As a result, predictive policing algorithms are improving their successful predictions of when crimes might occur and who might commit them. A new article over at The Conversation reminds us that even the best data can only provide us with probabilities rather than certainties, and that such predictions result in a difficult debate on balancing the reduction of crime with civil rights.

Paw enforcement

The death of police dog Diesel has only added to the collective grief around the recent atrocities in Paris. The seven-year-old Belgian shepherd was a member of the French National Police’s Research, Assistance, Intervention and Deterrence (RAID) Unit. The Police Nationale’s tweet stressing how vital K9s are to operations might bring some comfort to the many mourning the decorated dog.

CT Scan

Je suis Paris

Much of the current discussion on terrorism centres on last week’s attacks in Paris and Beirut. There have been several analyses of IS’ shift in strategy, and the implications for global counterterrorism strategies. Terrorism researcher Will McCants discusses IS as a state sponsor of terrorism in a Foreign Policy piece, describing IS as ‘al-Qaeda with even less of a conscience, more manpower, and way more money’. Brookings’ Daniel L. Byman considers the costs and benefits to IS in expanding its operations globally, such as the risk of increased targeting of IS leaders when they engage in overseas communications. And a piece at The New York Times demonstrates that IS is likely responsible for nearly 1,000 deaths outside Syria and Iraq, and collates the information in timeline and map formats.

Faux pas chinois

A Chinese government social media account came under scrutiny in the wake of the Paris attacks after it used the tragedy to draw attention to domestic terrorist operations in Xinjiang province. The now-deleted Weibo post hailed police for winning a battle against terrorists and included a photo of heavily armed police. The controversy stems from scepticism that Xinjiang separatists are motivated by Islamic extremism, instead of viewing Beijing’s repression of Uighur ethnic and religious identity in the region as the major source of tension. At the G20 meeting in Turkey, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated that China is also a victim of terrorism, and called for support in its efforts in Xinjiang region.

Global Terrorism Index

The Institute for Economics and Peace has released its annual Global Terrorism Index report. Iraq and Afghanistan take out the top two ranks, with Syria at fifth. Australia places way down in 59th place, higher than Sweden (60) and Norway (64) but lower than Germany (53) and Malaysia (49). According to the report, terrorism-related deaths spiked from 18,000 in 2013 to over 32,000 in 2014, with 51% of these deaths attributed to IS and Boko Haram.

Checkpoint

Will the Schengen Agreement survive?

In a landmark speech following Friday’s attacks, French President François Hollande called for a radical overhaul of Europe’s border security policies, sending the message that France will call for the effective suspension of the Schengen Agreement. Yet, temporary suspensions have become increasingly common due to the European migrant crisis. This piece from The Independent argues that the end of open borders in the EU is likely inevitable. To understand the state of France’s borders after last week’s attacks, read this Mashable report.

Saudi Arabia’s illicit markets

Less than a month after Saudi Arabia’s royal drug problem unfolded—a Saudi Prince was arrested in Lebanon with over two tonnes of illegal drugs loaded in his Saudi-bound jet—customs officials in the country discovered a creative attempt to smuggle 48,000 cans of beer disguised as soft drinks into the country, where alcohol is banned. To see how Saudi authorities made this giant score, check out this Washington Post video.

Sea State

Last week the destroyer USS Donald Cook visited Turkey’s Aksaz naval base on Turkey’s southwest coast for joint Turkey–US exercises. Elements of the Turkish naval force present included submarines, surface and air defence units.

Meanwhile in Paris, the French presidency  announced that it will deploy its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to boost French operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The Charles de Gaulle is the largest warship in Western Europe, and the only nuclear-powered aircraft outside of the US fleet. It can support as many as 40 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. According to French President Francois Hollande the aircraft carrier will ‘bolster Paris’ firepower in the region amid international efforts to launch Syrian peace talks’.

A week after the USS Lassen sailed within 12 nautical miles of China’s artificial islands, US Defence Secretary Ash Carter visited US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the South China Sea, The aircraft carrier sailed ‘about 150 to 200 nautical miles from the southern tip of the Spratlys’. While attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Defence Ministers Plus meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Carter took the opportunity to visit the vessel alongside Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein. Carter told reporters that accompanied him on the vessel that ‘there’s a lot of concern about Chinese behaviour out here.’

Flight Path

The Boeing–Lockheed team bidding for the contract to build the US Air Force’s next generation Long Range Strike Bomber have filed a formal protest asking the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) to review the decision to award the US$80 billion contract to Northrup Grumman on the basis that the selection process was fundamentally flawed. Breaking Defense takes a look at the protest and the for-and-against cases here.

Israel is looking to boost its air fleet with more F-15 Strike Eagles rather than additional F-35s. The National Interest reports that as part of a ‘compensation package’ for the lifting of sanctions on Iran, Israel has submitted a request for a squadron of F-15s and V-22 Osprey tilt-rotors. This request might reflect Israel’s misgivings about the cost, performance and capabilities of the F-35s, as well as whether they actually meet Israel’s ongoing needs in terms of range, payload and manoeuvrability

On 2 November, the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) received its eighth and final C-17 Globemaster airlifter. Defense Industry Daily explores the history of the acquisition here, as does Australian Aviation who also have some pictures of the RAAF C-17s in action.

Rapid Fire

Texas-based firearms manufacturer TrackingPoint has announced the release of two new ‘smart rifles’ for military action—the M600 5.56 Service Rifle and M800 7.62 Designated Marksman Rifle. The rifles make use of RapidLok technology, which automatically targets and tracks an enemy, and can adjust the velocity of fired rounds to maximise accuracy. The rifles can even shoot around corners if the user has ShotGlass—wireless glasses that connect to the rifle’s camera. TrackingPoint are claiming up to ‘89% First Shot Success Probability (FSSP) out to 800 yards.’ They’re even offering 10 free rifles to any US organisation that can legally employ the weapons in the fight against ISIS. Smart weapons aren’t without their hazards, however. Regular readers may remember that, back in July, hackers managed to disable TrackingPoint’s sniper rifle by exploiting its wireless network—a feature which the new squad rifles retain.

Thales Australia are looking to supply the Hawkei 4×4 light mobility vehicle to the Polish armed forces. The Australian-designed Hawkei (aka baby Bushmaster) was recently announced as the winner of a contract to supply 1,100 vehicles to the Australian Army. Although the Australian vehicles will be built in Bendigo, Thales have said that they’re open to working with local industry for the Polish vehicles.

US Army have deployed Stryker armoured combat vehicles to an outpost in the Arctic Circle for the first time as part of the Arctic Pegasus exercise. Arctic Pegasus isn’t nearly as large as Russia’s Arctic exercises, but signals US acknowledgement of the growing strategic relevance of the region.

Sea State

After the much publicised US Lassen’s voyage through contested waters in the South China Sea last week, the US Chief of naval operations Admiral John Richardson and his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Wu Shengli, held a video conference. The video conference was reportedly requested by the Chinese. Few details were released about the call, but Reuters reported that scheduled port visits by US and Chinese ships and planned visits to China by senior US Navy officers remained on track.

Meanwhile, Australia is proceeding with its scheduled live-fire naval exercises in China despite US–China tensions. Two warships, HMAS Stuart and HMAS Arunta, are spending three days at China’s naval port at Zhanjiang, in Guangdong province. The last time the Australian Navy conducted live-fire naval exercises was 2010.

Last week in Vladivostok, Russia laid down the first of two new arctic multi-purpose support vessels for the Russian Navy. The Project 03182 small marine tankers have been designed as multipurpose ice-class vessels for the transportation of liquid and dry cargo and for performing rescue operations. Russian media reported that the first vessel, named the Mikhail Barskov, will be delivered in November 2017, with the second following in 2019.

Flight Path

Last week, the Pentagon announced that Northrop Grumman had won the tender to build the US Air Force’s next generation Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B). The tender is the largest military aircraft contract in more than a decade and is estimated to be worth around US$80 billion (or $564 million per plane). In this article, DefenseNews takes a look at the announcement and what we still don’t know about the bomber.

As conflict continues in Syria, Dave Majumdar takes a look at the five most lethal combat aircraft in Syria on The National Interest. Taking out the number one spot as the most advanced combat aircraft in Syria is the US Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor. Bagging second place is the US Boeing EA-18G Growler, armed with AGM-88 and AIM-120 missiles and designed to disrupt enemy radars and communications. Third place goes to Russia’s Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback while Russia’s Sukhoi Su-30SM Flanker-H comes fourth. The French Dassault Rafale fighter takes the last spot in the top five.

And finishing on a light and breezy note this week, a US surveillance blimp which was flying over a US Army base before it broke free from its moorings and made a desperate bid for freedom. It then drifted from Maryland to Pennsylvania, snapping power lines and leaving thousands of residents without power. The Pentagon confirmed that the blimp was shot down (shooter unspecified) and deflated. A US$235 million #Blimpgate?

Rapid Fire

Making headlines in land capability this week is the US decision to send special ops forces into Syria. This marks a change from White House policy since 2013 that the US wouldn’t be putting ‘boots on the ground’ in Syria. Fewer than 50 troops are currently slated to deploy into the north-east of the country to ‘advise and assist’ Syrian Arab, Turkmen and Kurdish groups fighting in the region. The Turnbull government says Australia has no plans to follow America’s lead in deploying ground troops to the region.

It’s been a good week in the unmanned vehicle domain for the US Army and for fans of robots generally. Sikorsky successfully tested a self-flying version of the UH-60 Black Hawk last week, in which the helicopter picked up and dropped off a robot passenger. The helicopter can operate autonomously or with a remote pilot, and Sikorsky says that the technology represents the possibility for autonomous logistics missions.

The US Army has also announced funding for three new ground robot programs. The proposed platforms are an ordnance disposal robot, an equipment transport for dismounted troops, and a ground resupply vehicle. US Army are also looking into uses for swarms of consumer drones, including reconnaissance, surveillance and potentially even dropping munitions.

The Beat

Unions call for stronger national systems to fight crime

Australia’s police unions have banded together to reiterate their call for all branches of government to deliver stronger national systems to fight crime. In their joint statement, the unions stressed again the importance of three key capability development priorities: a national case management system, a new national criminal intelligence system, and dedicated broadband communications spectrum for public safety agencies.

Justice Minister Michael Keenan was quick to demonstrate the Commonwealth’s commitment to most of these initiatives, outlining action already taken on a national criminal intelligence system and the referral of the broadband spectrum to the Productivity Commission—their draft report was released back in September. The question of a national case management system was deferred though, as ‘there are complex legislative, governance, and information sharing issues that will have to be agreed by states and Commonwealth before any national case management system can be progressed’.

Major shift in international drugs policy or not?

A curious thing happened on the weekend. Businessman Richard Branson posted a copy of a briefing paper by the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime that declared personal drug use as ‘permitted by international drug conventions’. The briefing paper went on to say that decriminalising such drug use—including by those who sold drugs to finance a personal habit—was not only permitted under the relevant international treaties but ‘may be required to meet obligations under international human rights law’. According to Vice News, the paper didn’t make it to the conference floor. Neither they nor Mr Branson are sure why.

Crimes against time

Finally, police around Australia were unexpectedly occupied yesterday (October 21, 2015) responding to reports of individuals travelling in a silver Delorean at speeds approaching 88 miles per hour, and disturbing the space-time continuum.

CT Scan

Noise complaints, alcohol & deception: IGIS’ Annual Report

The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security’s Annual Report (PDF) was tabled in parliament last week—and some of its findings have made for interesting headlines. The report’s reveals include ASIS officers being slapped with new gun laws after an booze-fuelled session in Afghanistan, complaints from locals living near ASIO’s Ben Chifley building about the Organisation’s noisy midnight alarms, and ASIS choosing to cooperate with foreign officials over the actions of foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria without approval from Minister Bishop.

Anwar al-Awlaki’s transformation

In a recent podcast by Lawfare blog (50 mins), New York Times national security reporter Scott Shane provides an overview of his new book Objective Troy: A Terrorist, A President, and the Rise of the Drone. In the podcast, he discusses how Anwar al-Awlaki, the first US citizen to be targeted by a US government drone, transformed from a  US Islamic thought leader to an AQ recruiter.

Where (CT analysts’) dreams come true

Ever wanted to fight the forces of darkness with a Disney-esque backdrop? Well, now you actually can. The Walt Disney Company is seeking a counterterrorism intern to work at their California headquarters. With its millions of visitors per year, this isn’t the theme park’s first foray into security; in 2003, after the company’s large financial contributions to the war in Iraq, no-fly zones were imposed over Disneyland in California and Walt Disney World in Florida.

Checkpoint

The Australian Border Force getting the job done

This week the Australian Border Force . There were more than 32,800 drug detections, which amounted to over 630 seizures on average each week at the nation’s airports, seaports and mail centres. Of these, detections of major illicit drugs and precursors represented a total weight of over 7.3 tonnes.

Illegal migration and Turkey’s final speed bump in EU membership bid

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, during her visit aimed at securing Ankara’s help to stem the migrant crisis, said that the EU and Turkey will work together to tackle illegal migration. However, this piece on The Independent suggests it’s not the EU’s plans that concern people smugglers, rather the beginning of winter weather. From migrants’ perspectives, this New York Times article explains why winter will also pose new dangers for them Head over to Brookings for a piece on the new Turkey–EU cooperation.

Sea State

The US Navy has reportedly declared its intentions to send a surface ship inside the 12-nautical-mile territorial limit China claims for its man-made islands in the South China Sea. According to the Financial Times, the manoeuvres are expected to begin in the next two weeks. Reports of the impending manoeuvres suggest that Chinese and US officials failed to come to any type of resolution regarding the standoff in the South China Sea during Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington in September.

Russia is reported to be creating an ‘arc of steel’ designed to challenge and confront NATO. Russia has invested US$2.4 billion in the expansion of its Black Sea fleet, set to be completed by 2020, while Russian submarine patrols have risen by 50% in the past year—returning to levels not seen for a decade. According to ADM Marke Ferguson, who heads NATO’s joint force command in Naples, ‘we are observing the manifestation of a more aggressive, more capable Russian Navy.’

On October 7, Pakistan finalised lengthy negotiations with China over a submarine deal, with four boats to be built in Pakistan and four in China. The significant announcement confirms that China will transfer technology to Pakistan during the construction of the S20 subs, which will help Pakistan maintain a credible conventional deterrent against India. Pakistan’s state-owned shipyard, Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works, will build the subs based on their experience with submarine overhaul and construction.

Flight Path

To F-35 or not to F-35? That is the question facing Canada as Canadians heads to the polls for their upcoming federal election on 19 October. Canadian Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau has revealed that if he wins the election, his newly formed government will withdraw from the costly F-35 program. The Conservative Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper had previously committed to buying 65 F-35s to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s CF-18 fighter jets. Defense News takes a look here at the decision that Canadian voters face, and the background of the Canadian F-35 program.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has sent a proposal to the Indian defence ministry to allow women to fly fighter aircraft. An article on Defense One takes a look at the surprising announcement, made on the 83rd anniversary of the IAF. If successful, it will mark the first ‘entry of women into combat roles in the Indian armed forces’.

Remember the US–China agreement on air-to-air encounters that came out of Xi’s visit to the US last month? Mark J. Valencia over at The Diplomat takes a look at the announcement, arguing that it dodges the fundamental deep differences between the two countries and that it remains to be seen if the agreement will make any future encounters ‘safer.’

Rapid Fire

The US has started withdrawing its Patriot missiles stationed at the Gaziantep 5th Armoured Brigade Command in south-eastern Turkey. Originally placed there in response to Turkish requests for assistance along the Syrian border, the missiles are now being returned to the US for a ‘modernisation’ process. Interestingly, this withdrawal comes at a time of heightened tensions, with continued border violence and Russian fighter jets breaching Turkish airspace twice last week. The US is following through with its withdrawal despite a Turkish appeal on 8 October for continued NATO military support.

Closer to home, Australia has announced it will spend $1.3 billion on 1,100 new light armoured personnel carriers. Known as the Hawkei, this vehicle will replace Australia’s aging and unprotected Land Rover fleet. The Hawkei will be manufactured by Thales in Victoria and designed to meet the requirements of Project Land 121 Phase 4. The fleet will improve soldier protection, enabling operations in higher-risk areas, as well as improving air mobility, as the first ADF protected vehicle that can be transported by ADF helicopters.

And finally, check out Defense One’s piece on what must be done to revitalise the US Army. Retired Army General Gordon Sullivan outlines the force’s current challenges and future opportunities in the week of the Association of the US Army’s annual symposium.