The beat

Austerity analysis

Barry Loveday from the University of Portsmouth has sounded the alarm about declining police numbers in England and Wales in his analysis of the recently released state of policing report. He argues that repeated austerity budgets are at least partly responsible for poor police performance. In recent cuts, the government slashed funding for neighbourhood policing. The senior national coordinator for counterterrorism called the move a ‘disaster’ that would undermine counterterrorism operations.

Pakistan law minister steps down

Zahid Hamid, Pakistan’s federal law minister, resigned on Monday, yielding to the demands of the Islamist Tehreek-i-Labaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLY) party following weeks of protests. TLY staged the protests because ‘a reference to the Prophet Muhammad was left out of a revised version of the electoral oath’. Hamid’s resignation brought an end to the protests, but raises questions about the Pakistani government’s ability to govern.

New Zealand Police video goes viral

A recruitment video promoting the New Zealand Police has attracted global attention for all the right reasons. The high-speed, parkour-style video details some of the finer elements of the job, like assisting elderly citizens across the street and rescuing handbags from dogs. Whatever it takes to help make New Zealand the safest country in the world!

CT scan

Attack in Egypt

In the deadliest terrorist attack in Egypt’s modern history, gunmen opened fire in a mosque in northern Sinai during Friday prayers, killing more than 300 people. It’s believed the Sufi-linked mosque was targeted by ultra-conservative Salafists, who view Sufism as heresy.

Benghazi attacker found guilty of terrorism but not murder

A US court found Ahmed Abu Khatallah, the alleged mastermind of the 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, guilty of ‘destroying US government property, discharging a firearm during a violent crime and two counts of providing support to a terror organization’. He was found not guilty on 14 other charges, including the murder of four US personnel.

Terror suspect arrested in Melbourne

A 20-year-old man has been arrested in Melbourne for allegedly planning ‘to use a firearm to shoot and kill as many people as he could … on New Year’s Eve’. Police described the Werribee man, who hadn’t yet accessed a firearm, as ‘one of our high-risk persons of interest’.

Checkpoint

Renewed violence in Ethiopia

An ongoing conflict between two ethnic groups in Ethiopia, the Oromos and the Somalis, has resulted in at least 20 deaths in the past week. In September, more than 100 people were killed and around 67,000 Oromos were displaced. The latest incident occurred at a border separating the two groups, but the cause of the renewed violence is unknown.

Shots fired on a Turkish border post

Members of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party opened fire on a Turkish border post on Tuesday, wounding at least one soldier. The motive for the attack isn’t known. The Iraqi Army, with help from Shia militias, recently reclaimed control of territory from the Kurdistan Regional Government, sowing discord among Kurdish leaders.

Drone captures conflict remnants on Iraq-Iran border

Incredible drone footage of the Iran–Iraq border has emerged showing walls and trenches used in the 1987 conflict. The footage was taken as a part of the Charax Spasinou project, which surveys conflict archaeology. The fortified walls stand up to 8 metres tall in some areas, and run for more than 3 kilometres.

First responder

Saving sauerkraut

A devastating hail storm struck the Red Earth Organics two-hectare market garden near Lismore earlier this month, wiping out approximately $200,000 worth of crops. Farmers Caine Nichols and Aaron Davidson reported that tonnes of silver beet, kale, broccoli, carrots and cauliflowers were destroyed. In an inspiring display of real-life resilience, the men plan to salvage their shredded $60,000 cabbage crop to make between 1,000 and 2,000 jars of sauerkraut. Australia’s Atmospheric Observations Research Group is currently developing the capability to detect hail storms and needs public help.

Nuclear waste

Mark Willacy of ABC’s Foreign Correspondent released an interactive website and video report about ‘the dome’ on Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands. The structure was put in place as a temporary measure to contain nuclear waste from US weapons tests in the atoll in the 1940s and 1950s, but it’s now leaking nuclear material into the Pacific Ocean.

Rebuilding Nepal

Thirty months later, only a small percentage of some 400,000 homes marked for reconstruction after being destroyed in the April 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal have been rebuilt. In some cases, cash payments to eligible homeowners to start reconstruction were spent on other things during the 18 months the Nepalese government took to develop an improved building code. More than 5 million buildings that survived the earthquake don’t meet the code and should be retrofitted.

The world

It’s summit season in Southeast Asia. This week all the big names of the Asia–Pacific descended on Vietnam and the Philippines for the 31st ASEAN Summit and related meetings (such as APEC and the East Asia Summit). The New York Times thinks that, despite Trump’s rhetoric, Japan is showing signs of nerves about America’s commitment to the region—which probably wasn’t helped by Donald Trump slipping out of summits early. The Diplomat’s Ankit Panda trumpets the return of the Australia–India–Japan–US quadrilateral after 10 years in the wilderness, and Grant Wyeth gives an Australian take on ‘the Quad’.

There are concerns about President Trump’s potential willingness to consider first use of nuclear weapons in a preventive war against North Korea. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held hearings on nuclear command and control this week. A key takeaway was that the US military can refuse orders from the president if they’re deemed illegal because they don’t meet the conditions of ‘military necessity, discrimination and proportionality’, but what happens then remains murky.

With the army having taken control in Zimbabwe, The Economist takes a look at President Robert Mugabe’s long career and lessons learnt from nearly four decades of poor policymaking and rampant corruption that have left Zimbabwe far worse off than when he assumed office.

Saad al-Hariri’s mystery resignation as Lebanon’s prime minister is still unresolved. Looking at the big picture, Lebanon remains caught in the crosshairs of Saudi–Iranian tensions. Carnegie explores Ashraf Rifi’s bid to replace al-Hariri, which would likely ignite sectarian tensions as he hardens his pro-Sunni rhetoric, toeing the Saudi line. Whether or not Saudi Arabia has the ability to strategically exert influence in Lebanon to push back against Iranian proxies (namely, Hezbollah) is discussed in this excellent analysis from Stratfor.

Two fascinating investigative pieces this week: ‘Raqqa’s dirty secret’ from the BBC exposes a deal that let hundreds of Islamic State fighters and their families escape while the coalition of US, British and Kurdish forces took control of the city. And ‘The uncounted’ from the New York Times assesses the coalition’s precision when conducting air strikes against IS targets and its reporting of alleged civilian casualties. The piece recounts the story of one man whose family was killed by coalition air strikes, and who—like thousands of others—wasn’t documented in the reports. In addition, this brave interview with Lynsey Addario explores the question of why there are still so few female war photographers.

Some compelling new research on violent extremism and terrorism was published this week. First up, ICCT released a new paper on the scope and scale of Uighur foreign fighters, a cohort of jihadists that is relatively understudied despite their links to the Taliban and other Islamist factions in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Second, Hassan Hassan’s careful analysis helps contextualise what ‘IS 2.0’ looks like, and how governments should prepare for the group’s persistence as an insurgency, and Charlie Winter’s expert commentary on IS media-ops confirms that the problem of IS hasn’t gone away, but it’s just changed. Third, two pieces on the links between far right and Islamist extremism: Scott Atran and Julia Ebner separately discuss the appeal of countercultures, a ‘vitriol against globalists’ and parallel messaging strategies, as some of the connecting factors.

This pretty cool experiment enabled researchers to build a database from 4,000-year-old clay tablets, plugged it into an economic trade model, and used it to pinpoint the potential locations of 11 lost Bronze Age cities.

Tech geek of the week

Want to get a look inside China’s ‘war room’? The WarZone has an interesting article on China’s ‘Joint Battle Command Centre’ where Xi Jinping would run any future war from, including great imagery that a few years back would have been highly classified.

Testing of the next thing in tilt rotor technology is underway, with Bell’s V-280 Valor almost ready for its first flight. Part of the US Army’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program, the Valor offers aircraft-like speeds with the flexibility of the helicopter. Boeing and Sikorsky are also competing for FVL, including with a future FVL-Attack platform that could replace the Apache attack helicopter.

Finally, autonomous battlefield robots are definitely coming. Efforts to ban them are so far ineffective, the technology is racing ahead, and there are no guarantees that our adversaries will agree to ban them.

Videos and photo essay

The Economist discusses policy and legislative challenges facing European governments and the prospect of returning foreign fighters.

{Warning: The following report contains distressing scenes, including explicit descriptions of sexual violence.} This BBC Newsnight report investigates the story of the massacre of the Rohinga in the village of Tula Toli. It’s distressing but important journalism.

The New York Times has published a photo essay this week commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad.

For something different, this incredible time-lapse of Manhattan, filmed over 352 hours, shows the city in its time cycles.

Podcasts

On ‘Between the Lines’ this week, Tom Switzer talks with British journalist Peter Oborne about the unfolding situation in Zimbabwe. He also discusses populism with Gyorgy Schopflin, a member of the European Parliament from Hungary’s ruling party.

The New York Times brought Stephen Bannon ‘behind enemy lines’ for an interview this week. For an abridged version, check out ‘The Daily’ podcast; for the whole hog, go to ‘The New Washington’.

Events

Canberra, 20 November at 1130: Dr Karel Čada presents on Burkinis, slippery slope and Euroscepticism. Register here.

Canberra, 20 November at 1700:  Ms Unni Kløvstad, the Norwegian ambassador to Australia, launches Professor Michael Wesley’s new book, Global allies: comparing US alliances in the 21st century. Register here.

Canberra, 5 December at 1800: Hugh White will be giving a lecture to launch his quarterly essay Australia in the new Asia: without America. Register here.

The world

It was another chaotic week in Spain as the central government imposed direct control of Catalonia, rescheduled elections, and arrested eight Catalan regional ministers for rebellion. Nearby, in Greece, it was a tough week for financial planner George Papadopoulos, who was repeatedly confused with the other George Papadopoulos, the former White House foreign policy adviser who was indicted after pleading guilty to lying to federal agents about his involvement with Russian intermediaries in 2016. Court documents analysed by the Atlantic offer further clarification about the role of a ‘proactive cooperator’.

Saudi Arabia is being courted by a new player. China has reportedly offered to buy 5% of Saudi Aramco. Foreign Policy analyses the future benefits of this strategic investment and the political implications of such a geoeconomic shift.

Two upsetting pieces appeared in the Guardian this week on the plight of migrants and the ‘humanitarian horrors’ of immigration detention. First, a piece discussing Libya’s ‘dead end’ for African migrants hoping to get to Europe. Newly implemented EU policies are designed to keep would-be immigrants at a distance and prevent them from travelling further. Closer to home, a diary entry from one of Manus Island’s refugees, and journalist, Behrouz Boochani, describes life in the last few days before Australia’s offshore immigration centre was closed.

Defeating the Islamic State—or, for that matter, any insurgency—requires a long-lasting strategy comprising soft and hard power measures. Former US secretary of defense Ash Carter recounts how the US and allied forces succeeded in defeating IS in Syria and Iraq in this in-depth, honest op-ed. Two international counterterrorism experts, J.M. Berger and Amaranth Amarasingam, move beyond IS’s recent military setbacks and consider the wider spectrum of losses it’s contending with. Highlighting loss is particularly useful in the aftermath of attacks, which remind the public of the group’s ongoing threat.

Is Facebook’s crisis-response system well intentioned, or just another way to encourage inane engagement with mass tragedy? New York became the latest city hit by rudimentary terrorist tactics when a truck ploughed into a bike lane on 31 October, killing at least eight people. The Daily Beast discusses Facebook’s new ‘fundraiser’ feature, and an older piece from the Independent debates the utility of the ‘mark as safe’ button in the aftermath of a tragedy.

Sticking with the digital debates, in the aftermath of the Uber saga in London, Jamie Bartlett’s insightful piece for the Spectator illustrates how tech lobbyists harness the power of grassroots activism through ‘a bottom up organic movement, all orchestrated from the top’. The latest issue of the Demos Quarterly features excellent critical analysis on different tech debates, including digital skills, encryption, online hate and cyber warfare.

As we approach the hundredth anniversary of Russia’s Bolshevik Revolution (confusingly also known as the October Revolution due to calendar differences), the New Statesman has put out a long read chronicling ‘five great upheavals’ in Russia between 1917 and 2017. In a similar vein, the Guardian has this piece discussing the depth of Russian society’s historical understanding at the time of the revolution and lamenting the lack of it in contemporary society. To round out our revolutionary theme, the Pew Research Center has released the results of a survey on attitudes to different systems of government, which makes for very interesting reading.

A stunning photo series this week in the Atlantic allows us to experience the journey of Georgian shepherds in the Tusheti mountains, as they herd their 1,200 sheep down towards winter pastures.

Tech geek of the week

The field of electromagnetic manoeuvre warfare is producing new weapons and new ways of war. There’s a growing recognition of the importance of winning across the electromagnetic  spectrum, and of exploiting advanced directed-energy weapons in a domain in which cyber and electronic warfare converge for both offensive and defensive operations at the speed of light.

There are some pretty interesting current developments in unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs). Boeing is developing a large UUV called Echo Voyager, and Lockheed Martin is looking to develop an ‘extra-large unmanned undersea vehicle’ called Orca. Both suggest a future that includes sophisticated UUVs that are able to operate autonomously for months.

Japan is set to get its own marines, modelled on the US Marine Corps. Japan’s Ground Self-Defence Force, an ‘amphibious mobile landing force’, will defend Japan’s outermost islands, notably those territories claimed by China in the East China Sea.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic Budgetary Assessment’s 2018 Weapon systems factbook  (PDF) is out. This useful document details the ‘status, plans, procurement quantities and funding requirements’ for each major defence capability being acquired by the US military, as well as the B-21 Raider bomber, Long-range Standoff Missile, and Ground-based Strategic Deterrent (Minuteman III ICBM replacement).

Podcasts

On RN’s Between the Lines podcast, Tom Switzer interviews British journalist and historian Sir Max Hastings on a range of topics in international politics.

War College this week addresses the American presence in Niger following the death of US soldier La David Johnson. The discussion touches on West African politics, extremism in the region and the political mechanisms for deploying American troops.

Videos

In an interview with Sky News, captured British ISIS fighter Shabazz Suleman discusses life in the caliphate.

The third instalment of Vox Borders gives us an intriguing and nuanced look inside the insular Korean community in Japan.

Events

Sydney, 13 November at 1800: A lecture and interview with Professor Gordon Houlden on Canada’s relationship with China. Register here.

Melbourne, 17 November at 1400: The ANU’s Nonie Tuxen presents on international education and class status in Mumbai. Register here.

Canberra, 17 November at 1500: Professor Rosemary Foot discusses the subject of her current book project: China, the United Nations and human protection. Register here.

The world

Islamic State hasn’t claimed responsibility for last weekend’s blast in Mogadishu that killed more than 300 people, dispelling the popular myth that the organisation is willing to claim anything to boost its street cred. Foreign Policy’s analysis of al-Shabaab, the alleged perpetrators, discusses the Somali government’s military and political strategy against the terrorist organisation.

In the Levant, Iraqi armed forces moved into the Kurdish city of Kirkuk, which reignited their decades-long conflict. The Washington Post’s helpful analysis provides some clarity over popular misconceptions that have arisen, and this piece from the Spectator discusses Britain’s strategic role in the conflict.

The New York Times’ latest analysis of the post-caliphate future of IS excellently traces the roots of the organisation that became IS, why it gained such a huge following so fast, and how its decline will leave a vacuum guaranteed to be filled by other jihadist organisations. The latest CTC Sentinel is packed with brilliant material, especially a piece on the strong nexus between crime and jihadism in Europe, and another on the surprisingly sophisticated Sydney plane plot that was thwarted in July.

A few discussion pieces on the opioid crisis that is moving America to a public-health emergency: this piece on the family company manufacturing the addictive culprit drug OxyContin, an analysis of the failure to respond adequately to the epidemic, and a CSIS report from earlier this year detailing lessons learned from an empirical study.

For all the cloak-and-dagger types out there, the BBC is commemorating Mata Hari, ‘history’s most famous female spy’. They briefly trace Hari’s life from her birth as Margarethe Zelle in 1876, through the glamour of the ‘Belle Epoque’, and into the subterfuge of World War I. You can follow that with this piece from the Guardian about the murky world of espionage at international academic conferences. If that’s still not enough, round it out with the French show The Bureau (here on SBS), the story of French spy Guilluame Debailly, aka MALOTRU.

Moving on to some live debates. A few weeks ago, we discussed whether the nation-state was a thing of the past. Here’s an argument for why the nation-state model should remain a strong foundation, in the interests of protecting capitalism.

What’s the most effective method of interrogation? Here’s a compelling study from a husband and wife research team working to ‘revolutionise the study and practice of interrogation’.

Two fascinating pieces on the Eastern Bloc. First up, the Atlantic outlines how the Western press in Moscow during the 1930s suppressed the news of Stalin’s imposed famine of Ukrainians as a means of professional self-preservation. Second, ‘The evolution of Homo sovieticus to Putin’s man’ is a great explanation of how socioeconomic, cultural and political experiences have shaped the way Russians are today.

In a similar vein, an essay from the New York Review of Books demonstrates how cultural politics, mainly the arts, were central to Nazi Germany and fascist Italy.

In a strange twist of fate, prominent neo-Nazi Kevin Wilshaw revealed his homosexuality and his Jewish heritage after renouncing his far-right views. In other ‘people are complex’ news, a long read from the New Yorker traces political conversion through Mike Enoch’s transformation from ‘leftist contrarian to nationalist shock jock’.

Tech geek of the week, by Malcolm Davis

The return of a Russian threat to NATO is generating renewed interest in modernised tanks. Russian military modernisation emphasises updated armoured forces and nuclear weapons. Key technologies for tanks will include adding reactive armour and the active protection system from the T-14 Armata to older T-80 and T-90 tanks.

The US Army is also thinking about future tanks that will have active protection systems and be lighter than the M1A2 Abrams’ 80 tons. And it could have ‘laser’ weapons. The new tank won’t appear until 2035, alongside significantly upgraded Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles.

Want to know what fighting ISIS is like in Marawi City in the Southern Philippines? Check out this video, which shows brutal house-to-house fighting by the Armed Forces of the Philippines in the ruins of the city. After five months of fighting, it looks like government forces have won out, but the battle has been hard going.

Looking out on the technological horizon, some amazing and potentially destabilising technological shocks may appear. Technologies such as radical life extension and the development of AI are being funded by corporate billionaires, and could generate global insecurity if mishandled. Though it might not happen—the transhumanist and post-human proponents of such advances will have to battle the laws of physics to achieve their goals.

The cool idea of the week is an electromagnetic railgun to launch CubeSats into orbit. When they absolutely, positively have to be in space—fast!

Podcasts

Three interview podcasts for listeners this week.

The CSIS has an interview with Christine Mahoney, associate professor at the University of Virginia, about displaced people and the possibilities of integration.

For the thinking behind the Kurdish referendum, BBC Hardtalk has an interview with Masrour Barzani, the intelligence and security chief of the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The New York Times’ podcast, ‘The Daily’, has interviews with Rod Nordland and Rukmini Callimachi about the state of ISIS as it loses territory.

Videos

Photos: Gallery of wildlife photographer of the year winners.

Vox gives us an interesting look into the relationship between Haiti and Dominican Republic, the two nations of the island of Hispaniola.

For a change of pace, here is the story of Laika, the heroic Soviet dog who was fired into space on Sputnik 2 and sadly never made it home.

Events

Canberra, 23 October at 1500: ANU is hosting Dr Ryan Griffiths for ‘The Strategy of Secession’ seminar to discuss how breakaway regions become internationally recognised states. Details here.

Canberra, 23 October at 1730: Book launch of Learning from Fukushima: nuclear power in East Asia. The many authors will each present the results of their work. Register here.

Canberra, 25 October at 1800: Ben Archer will present at AIIA on ‘Bhutan: a new focus for Australia?’ Tickets here.

 

 

The Beat

Police as the first port of call

The official annual assessment of UK policing released this week highlights issues around mental health in the community. Police are increasingly relied on as the ‘first resort’ when dealing with people with mental illness, but this task is burdensome, and Sir Thomas Winsor, author of the report, warns that ‘police cannot continue to fill the gaps left by other agencies.’ It’s not a simple matter of under-resourced police, either—leading medical journal The BMJ points the finger at funding shortfalls affecting public services like the National Health Service, leaving a void that police are then called to fill.

There’s definite need for system-level change, but there’s also no doubt that efforts from local police offices will contribute. Perhaps they could draw inspiration from Canada, where Toronto police are rolling out a smartphone app that’ll help beat-cops connect people in crisis with the proper health services in their area.

Fake water seized in record haul

In an age of fake news, it’d be easy to disbelieve part of the latest INTERPOL–Europol haul—among the 26 million litres of counterfeit drink seized over the last four months, investigators noted the new trend of fake mineral water.

CT Scan

Understanding the nexus between mental illness and extremist violence

Running on from what’s been happening in the UK, a major counterterrorism push by NSW Police aims to identify mentally ill or vulnerable Australians who could become perpetrators of Islamic State-inspired violence, before they conduct a terrorist attack. The ‘Fixated Persons Investigations Unit’ includes 17 detectives and mental health specialists and is part of a broader initiative that seeks to focus police resources on better understanding the relationship between mental illness and terrorism. Whereas other programs draw on local intelligence to identify potential threats, the new unit will have access to a suspect’s medical history, a key recommendation of the Martin Place Siege review. NSW Police Commissioner, Mick Fuller hopes that in time, ‘the bias-crime and mental-health units will form a team to try and combat this new phenomenon’.

Countering vehicle terror

CT police in the UK have undergone specialist training to prepare them to ‘take out drivers’ who use vehicles as weapons. The initiative is a direct response to a wave of vehicular-related terror in Nice, Berlin and London. Marking a shift in previous policies, officers have been given high powered ammunition capable of penetrating armoured glass and will now have permission to shoot perpetrators behind the wheel if necessary.

Checkpoint

Unearthing cattle tunnels

The Indian Border Force (BSF) has unearthed an 80 foot tunnel in a tea garden in northern West Bengal leading to Bangladesh. The BSF believes cattle smugglers had been digging the tunnel at night to evade detection. More and more Indian states are banning cattle exports, but the demand in Bangladesh remains high. This is the second tunnel connecting India and Bangladesh the BSF has discovered this year.

Mexico talks tough to Trump

Mexican foreign minister Luis Videgaray has unleashed ‘uncharacteristically tough talk’ concerning Donald Trump’s promise to build a border wall, calling the idea an ‘absolute waste of money’ and promising that Mexico ‘would not put one peso toward building it.’ Videgaray made his comments as Trump, seeking to avoid a government shutdown, has shown ‘flexibility’ regarding US government funding for the wall.

IKEA to provide jobs for Syrian refugees

IKEA has released plans to create employment opportunities for hundreds of Syrian refugees living in camps in Jordan. The push is part of a long-term plan to provide jobs for 200,000 disadvantaged people around the world through social entrepreneurship programs. The centres in Jordan will be built and equipped by IKEA, in conjunction with Jordan River Foundation, to produce a variety of woven products including rugs, cushions and bedspreads.

First Responder

Children in disasters

In the US, children as a specific population are not directly included in county emergency response plans, despite guidance offered from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Enter, Putnam County in New York state and the Resilient Children/Resilient Communities initiative. In partnership with Columbia University’s National Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Save the Children, a local coalition is planning for children’s protection before, during and after disasters, including ‘unprecedented cooperation’ from child-serving institutions. That’s a critical step forward in disaster planning: on any given day, 69 million US children are in school or care programs, yet 41% of parents don’t know where their children will be evacuated to during a disaster.

Malaria vaccine trial

The World Health Organization has announced a pilot program for the world’s first malaria vaccine to be rolled out in 2018. The program is scheduled to commence in parts of Ghana, Kenya and Malawi, which were selected due to their high incidence of malaria, availability of mosquito nets, and effective immunisation programs. The vaccine is designed to protect young children from malaria’s deadliest variant (caused by Plasmodium falciparum), and in combination with other current interventions has ‘the potential to save tens of thousands of lives in Africa’.

Underwater quake

Lastly, check out this off the (Richter) scale footage captured by a Filipino diver swimming over an earthquake.