Tag Archive for: General

ASPI suggests

The world

The war in Syria has entered its seventh year and civilian casualties are soaring yet again. To put the East Ghouta crisis in perspective, read this chilling piece from the Guardian and this WaPo piece exploring the devastating consequences of failed humanitarian diplomacy. Mark Galeotti and Isaac Kfir separately analyse the effect of Russian interests and alliances in the eastern Mediterranean in light of the recent spat between Israel and Iran. Carnegie Europe reviews the situation from Ankara, evaluating Turkey’s high stakes in this protracted conflict.

Over in the US, surviving students of last week’s Florida school shooting are at the forefront of the ‘Never again’ movement, the latest attempt to promote gun reform. It seems that even some staunch defenders of the Second Amendment are also coming to terms with the danger posed by automatic rifles: the Independent reports on an individual who decided to hand in his rifle, and this viral Twitter video shows another man destroying his weapon.

Looking to US security and foreign policy, War on the Rocks analyses American stakes in Europe in the face of resurgent China and Russia, emphasising the rise of global disorder and shifting international alliances. The Institute for the Study of War has just published a paper on America’s global competitions, exploring the grey zones and thresholds of war. However, in light of the recently released national defense strategy, FDD’s Long War Journal offers a different perspective, arguing that the US government shouldn’t give up on countering international terrorism in favour of pursuing inter-state strategic competition just yet. For some additional insight into changing dynamics in Islamic State, read Peter Neumann’s analysis here. Finally, The Atlantic discusses the frustrations of being a national security staffer in the White House under President Donald Trump.

Across to Asia, the Wall Street Journal insightfully summarises the political crisis in the Maldives against the geopolitical backdrop of the country’s strategic location and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

If it were ever really in doubt, Myanmar is facing a crisis of democracy in more ways than one. The Financial Times discusses issues related to fake news and deepening constraints on independent journalism. This follows on from this Daily Beast article from a couple of weeks ago that reported about a delegation of dodgy international journalists—including a Canadian radio host who has faced hate speech charges—that was invited into Rakhine State to cover the conflict, while other foreign visitors (including UN officials) are barred from entry.

We have two research pieces about humanitarian issues and gender. The LSE assesses the gendered dimensions of resilience policy in relation to internally displaced women in Iraq, while the United States Institute of Peace evaluates the concept of masculinity in a postwar Afghanistan. And BBC presents a cool new research model for mapping conflict and evaluates whether it may help explain and prevent future violence.

Tech geek

China tested a mid-course missile interceptor earlier this month. The test could allow the Chinese to mask anti-satellite testing as ballistic missile defence testing. The Chinese test follows a Russian anti-ballistic missile test, which we highlighted earlier in our most recent five-domains update.

While most armies are embracing smaller, more agile brigades or battalions to meet the demands of the modern battlespace, Russia is turning back to larger mechanised divisions with heavy artillery and missile support. This step may be driven by Russia’s operational experience in Ukraine, where smaller brigades aren’t able to sustain operations or drive deep into an enemy’s rear areas, whereas a larger division can. Also, in a surprise move, Russia deployed two new Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighters (aka ‘PAK-FA’) to Syria. There’s no better way to prove a platform’s capability than with operational experience.

The US Army has a new armed drone known as the Gray Eagle. It can carry four Hellfire missiles, remain aloft for 24 hours and is controlled directly from the battlefield, unlike either the Reaper or Predator.

There are three interesting articles on nukes worth reading. James Stavridis comments on the risks of low-yield nuclear weapons. And on very high-yield devices, here are two must reads on Russia’s 100-megaton, cobalt-jacketed ‘Status 6’, a nuclear unmanned undersea weapon designed to irradiate cities with nuclear tsunamis.

Multimedia

The Republic of Kosovo celebrated 10 years of independence last weekend. This Al-Jazeera picture series captures the pain and trauma that remains very much present 20 years after the bloody conflict.

#thisisegypt: Orla Guerin reports for BBC Newsnight on President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s bloody regime and contentious human rights abuses seven years after the January protests in Tahrir Square. [13 min]

Podcasts

Brooking’s Cafeteria Podcast: Bill Finan talks to Madhia Afzal about her new book, Pakistan under siege: extremism, society, and the state. She touches on perceptions of the country in the West, Pakistani perceptions of violence and the Pakistani state’s relationship to the Taliban. This is followed by Bill Frey talking all things related to US millennials. [37 min]

The Human and the Machine has a new series that speaks to leading thinkers on artificial intelligence. The first episode is titled ‘AI and society’. [50 min]

There’s an excellent BBC The Briefing Room episode about foreign fighters returning to the UK, losing their citizenship, and future threats from al-Qaeda and Islamic State. David Aaronovitch speaks to renowned academic and intelligence experts. [28 min]

Events

Canberra, 28 February, 5.30–8.00 pm, ‘Religion today: globalisation, coups and contemporary faith’. Hosted by Bluestar Intercultural Centre and Charles Sturt University at the Australian Centre for Christianity and Culture. Info and registration here.

Melbourne, 28 February, 6–7.30 pm, La Trobe Asia: ‘Japan’s approach to a changing world’. More here.

Brisbane, 1 March, 1–3.30 pm, Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom Queensland: ‘Negotiating the end of war’. Info and registration here.

ASPI suggests

The world

This week marked the 18th school shooting of 2018 in the US. The Daily Beast discusses how the perpetrator trained with Republic of Florida, a white supremacist separatist group, from which he acquired firearms. The tragic attack comes only days after a former neo-Nazi turned anti-racist activist revealed that white supremacists have joined law enforcement agencies and the military to get access to weapons and combat training. They’ve used these networks to recruit followers. The hypocrisy of Congress members who’ve received NRA funding but took to Twitter offering condolences after the shooting was exposed by Bess Kalb. See last year’s New York Times piece on this.

In Italy, following yet another shooting rampage by a far-right gunman last week, thousands of anti-fascist demonstrators gathered across the country. Michael Ebner offers a glimpse into Italy’s fascist past in this book excerpt. With elections around the corner, The Local has a who’s who of the main candidates, while Politico looks at the main parties’ manifestos—some more ridiculous than others.

Despite Olympic distractions on the Korean peninsula, all eyes remain fixed to the north. Tensions will mount if North Korea begins missile testing or detonates another nuke. So, details of possible US planning for a ‘bloody nose’ strategy on the peninsula assume greater relevance. Yochi Dreazen chillingly writes at length about what a war would look like:  nukes yes, but biological and chemical weapons as well.

The gap between rich and poor is widening across the globe, but it’s in India where the lack of a middle class becomes especially apparent. The Economist argues that India won’t be the next China and offers advice for companies to prepare accordingly. Meanwhile, this Foreign Affairs analysis by Chris Miller explains Putinomics—the secret recipe for Vladimir Putin’s success.

February 12 marked the International Day Against the Use of Child Soldiers. IRIN published a piece highlighting that 40% of child soldiers are girls. And this new report from the United Nations University, ‘Cradled by conflict: child involvement with armed groups in contemporary conflict’, looks at non-state actors that recruit children and advises how the international community can respond. Personal stories of former child soldiers can be listened to here and here.

The Combating Terrorism Center’s 15th anniversary issue is jam-packed, with an excellent analysis of the conflict dynamics of al-Qaeda’s factions in Syria and Yemen, as well as interesting commentary on policing and law enforcement cooperation in the UK, US and Europe. Fred Wehrey examines what drives Libyan youths to militancy and extremism in The Atlantic.

And for a few unorthodox pieces: The Age investigates the Catholic church in Australia, valuing the institution at over $30 billion and raising troubling questions about the church’s failure to compensate survivors of child sex abuse. A long read in Wired discusses Facebook’s impact on global affairs following a two-year saga that forced Mark Zuckerburg to (somewhat belatedly) accept the integral relationship between Facebook and politics. And finally, here’s a compelling account of the friendship between Eleanor Roosevelt and Martha Gellhorn.

Tech geek

Following SpaceX’s successful launch of its Falcon Heavy launcher last week, China, Russia and India have all announced that they’ll develop similar launch vehicles.

With China moving ahead with naval railguns, the US is responding with ‘lasers’ at sea. While railguns blast projectiles at hypersonic speeds, lasers have the speed-of-light advantage—300,000 kilometres per second—and are potentially far cheaper to operate. Lasers, though, are line-of-sight to the visible horizon, whereas railguns potentially can fire projectiles over hundreds of kilometres.

Finally, angst is rising over plans in the US Air Force’s new ‘bomber vector’ roadmap to prematurely retire the B-2 well before the end of its operational life.

Video

Channel 4 spent a week in Ciudad Juarez, a crossing point for people and drugs bound for the US, and one of the main sites in Mexico’s drug war. Guillermo Galdos speaks with forensic teams, journalists and families whose daughters have gone missing, and also interviews a cartel hitman. Disclaimer: contains some scenes viewers may find distressing. [15:16]

Podcasts

In its 50th episode, the CSIS’ Russian Roulette podcast was lucky enough to speak to presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak  about her experiences in the election campaign, challenging Putin and how she would change the country. (No worries, it’s in English!) [19:31]

Shaping the conversation in defence industry. Defence Connect speaks to Kate Louis, former First Assistant Secretary, Defence Industry Policy, about how cybersecurity threats affect the defence industry [34:26]

Events

Canberra, 21 February, 5.30–6.15 pm, ANU College of Asia & the Pacific: ‘A foreign affair with Geraldine Doogue, Bob Carr, Menna Rawlings and Professor Michael Wesley’. Register here.

Canberra, 23 February, 6–7 pm, National Centre for Indigenous Studies, ANU: ‘The 2018 Annual ANU Reconciliation Lecture: Reconciliation, treaty making and nation building’. Information here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Today, the Olympic Winter Games kick off in Pyeongchang, South Korea. North Korea’s Kim Yong-nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, along with Kim Jong-un’s sister, will attend. They’ll be the first DPRK officials to visit South Korea in years, increasing the rumours that talks will be held. However, it’s too soon to be entirely optimistic, argues Kim Sengupta.

Last month, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s controversial remarks about alleged African gang violence stirred some heat. This New York Times feature offers a more positive view of the wider Sudanese community in Melbourne, including some great photos capturing everyday life. The article gives an insight into how the minister’s comments affected the young men’s lives. Two other interesting pieces about migrants’ challenges: The Atlantic examines Israel’s hostility towards African migrants, and Al Jazeera reveals findings about systematic racism within Sweden’s police force.

This week marked Zirkeltag, the point at which the Berlin Wall has been down for as long as it had been up—10,316 days. Der Spiegel has before-and-after pictures, while The Economist looks at what’s next in the ‘post-post-wall era’.

Leaked documents from Brussels indicate that the EU wants the power to ‘suspend certain benefits’—such as access to the single market—if the UK doesn’t play by EU rules during the two-year post-Brexit transition period. This hardened EU negotiating position puts Brexiteers in a tricky spot, having promised economic growth as a feature of a post-Brexit Britain. The Irish Times injected some acerbic optimism, arguing that Brexit’s saving grace is that it’s nowhere near as mad as the Hundred Years’ War.

Two compelling investigative journalism pieces came out this week. Reuters published its investigation into the execution of 10 Rohingyas by villagers and soldiers in Myanmar in September 2017—allegedly the first time that soldiers have been implicated with photographic evidence. During the investigation, two Reuters reporters were arrested. And the BBC tells the stories of the women and girls forced by Boko Haram to become suicide bombers in an innovative graphic novel.

As the US retreats from the international world order, we’re seeing the rise of two other ‘great powers’—China and Russia. This piece from Foreign Affairs analyses shifting US national security priorities while evaluating the viability of Xi Jinping’s and Vladimir Putin’s growing ambitions.

Should Watergate continue to be the yardstick against which political scandals are measured? Politico has compiled a list of 46 scandals that meet the ‘worse than Watergate’ benchmark. Somewhat relatedly, the New York Review of Books discusses the bloody legacies of three authoritarian dictators: Hitler, Stalin and Mao.

Some fresh research from George Washington University’s Program on Extremism chronicles the paths of 64 American jihadists in Iraq and Syria. Almost half of them are still alive and remain a potential threat. Canada’s intelligence agency has released some key findings from its study of 100 individuals who ‘radicalised to violence’. The takeaways include the fact that 80% of those who mobilise do so as part of a group. Also, 20% of mobilisers were female and ‘women and girls almost never acted alone’.

Tech geek

This week saw the successful launch of SpaceX’s ‘Falcon Heavy’ booster. Falcon Heavy is the most powerful rocket on Earth, able to lift 64 tons of payload to low Earth orbit. It carried Elon Musk’s personal Tesla roadster—with a space-suited ‘starman’ at the wheel—into a trajectory towards Mars. The defence and national security implications of Falcon Heavy are significant. The US, for the first time since the 1970s, now has a Saturn V–class booster that can loft large satellites into geostationary orbit. This opens up interesting possibilities for large military satellites that were previously too big to launch because there wasn’t a suitable launch vehicle. Or a lot of smaller satellites could be deployed in one launch.

China looks set to integrate AI into nuclear submarines in an effort to make its submarine force more effective. Meanwhile, on the surface, the US Navy has begun operational testing of the Sea Hunter anti-submarine unmanned vessel. Robot sub hunter versus AI subs is unlikely to remain science fiction for much longer.

The US Air Force is looking to upgrade the F-22 Raptor to keep it competitive through 2060. Enhancements will include new avionics, radar, sensors, weapons and AI. This is in the face of Russian and Chinese developments in fifth-generation fighters. Yet quantity has a quality of its own, and with only 187 Raptors in service, the F-35 will be heavily relied on at least until the late 2030s, when future systems may emerge.

Video

BBC Newsnight reports on legislative weaknesses in internet regulation and the immunity provided to social media companies in the US through section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996.

Podcasts

John Sipher, CIA National Clandestine Service veteran, talks to Michael Morrell about Russia’s active measures to influence US consciousness in the latest episode of Intelligence Matters.

For anyone who’s interested in insightful analysis on terrorism, Talking Terror from the University of East London’s Terrorism and Extremism Research Centre is a great resource.

The Global Politico’s Susan Glasser talks to conservative historian Walter Russell Mead about Donald Trump’s Jacksonianism.

Events

Canberra, 12 February, 3–4.30 pm, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU: ‘Aid for trade in Asia and the Pacific’. More information and registration here.

Canberra, 12 February, 6–7 pm, ANU SDSC War Studies Seminar Series: ‘Unwinnable wars: Afghanistan and the limits of Western military power’. Details here.

Melbourne, 13 February, 6–8.30 pm, LaTrobe University China Studies Research Centre: ‘Reflections on the Australia–China relationship’ with the Hon. Kevin Rudd. Info and tickets here.

ASPI suggests

Welcome, dear readers, to the first ‘ASPI suggests’ of 2018.

The world

While Michael Wolff’s Fire and fury lit flames under the White House to start the new year, the cabinet files scandal and the Strava security breach clearly jolted Canberra out of its January summer lull. Elsewhere, military campaigns, dodgy legislation and upcoming elections have kept the international relations analysts on their toes.

Russia’s presidential elections are six weeks away, and last weekend was again marked by mass protests ‘against the lack of choice’ across the country. Vice’s Greg Walters tells you why Putin isn’t fazed by the protests, and Radio Free Europe explores the Kremlin’s belief that Alexey Navalny isn’t a threat. Further afield, Moscow is exploring new ground in Africa. Wagner, a Kremlin-backed private military firm, has made forays into Sudan and the Central African Republic, as this Stratfor piece shows.

And Russia doesn’t stop there. Leonid Issaev argues that it’s getting its hands dirty by participating in Turkey’s latest military campaign, Operation Olive Branch. ASPI’s Isaac Kfir explains why driving the campaign further into Syria has the potential to cause havoc beyond the region.

Israel and Poland’s usually cordial relations have soured over the past week after Poland’s Sejm passed a bill criminalising any mention of Polish concentration or extermination camps, thus abrogating Polish culpability for Nazi-era crimes. This Washington Post article presents various critical voices on the legislation and explains the potential consequences if it’s signed by the Polish president.

For the linguists: an interesting piece from The Economist explores the decline of Egyptian Arabic— once the most widespread dialect in the Arab world—amid Egypt’s waning regional influence.

The unlikely and astonishing rise to power of Henry Kissinger, former secretary of state and national security adviser, is told by biographer Niall Ferguson in this Politico Magazine piece. Ferguson argues that the wily diplomat and academic’s greatest talent was strategic networking: ‘He had learned that … informal networks could provide diplomatic channels superior to foreign ministries and embassies.’

‘Big Brother is watching you.’ But could the bleak Orwellian maxim predicting our age of surveillance and the death of privacy have a positive side? National Geographic explores the measurable social, economic and environmental gains of surveillance networks and evaluates what privacy really means to us and how much we value it.

Drone warfare is a controversial practice. The Guardian spoke to military drone analysts in Kansas about their work and produced a piece that comprehensively analyses various aspects of drone warfare, from technology and training to accountability and ethics. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera documents innovative commercial and humanitarian uses of drones.

The Atlantic Council has published some interesting new research on the Asian energy transition. The paper explores Asia as a rising power in the field of renewable energy, and notes that many governments in the region are already developing and implementing clean energy policies. The International Center for Research on Women has published a similarly encouraging report card, assessing Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ progress on the UN’s feminist agenda one year in. Although the C+ score may seem low, the analysis is positive overall.

Tech geek

The Trump administration’s 2018 National Defense Strategy prioritises Russia and China as key threats to US interests. With that in mind, China looks set to outpace the Americans in electromagnetic railgun development for its naval vessels. If the Chinese are successful, the US may accelerate its own efforts, which so far have struggled.

A pre-decisional draft of the forthcoming US Nuclear Posture Review confirms that Russia is developing its ‘Status-6’ long-range nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle as a ‘third-strike weapon’, equipped with a cobalt-jacketed 100-megaton nuclear warhead. It’s designed to detonate offshore and inundate large coastal areas with long-lasting lethal radioactivity.

Boeing has released its concept for a reusable hypersonic aircraft—a ‘son of SR-71 Blackbird’. It would travel at speeds faster than Mach 5, and would employ DARPA’s advanced full-range engine to allow one engine to power it from take-off to hypersonic speeds and back to landing.

Finally, the Kiwis did well with their 21 January test launch of the Electron small satellite launcher, operated by Rocket Lab, a US-based company with an extensive New Zealand footprint. The successful mission puts New Zealand in a prime position to compete in the small-satellite market globally.

Podcasts

The World Economic Forum has launched a new podcast series that dissects different elements of the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’. The latest episode explores ways to regulate tech without stifling its benefits (30 mins).

Carnegie’s first 2018 DiploPod episode features an interview with Jeffrey Feltman, UN under-secretary for political affairs, in which he talks all things North Korea—ranging from opportunities on de-escalation to his impressions from discussions with officials in Pyongyang in December (15 mins).

The German Marshall Fund of the United States has a new podcast. The second episode of Out of Order focuses on how China has changed its position in the world since Donald Trump entered office and the role the current world order played in China’s rise (60 mins).

Events

Melbourne, 6 February 2018, 12.30–1.30 pm, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute and Monash University: ‘Environmental governance in China’. Details here.

Sydney, 7 February, 1–2 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Diabetes, an emerging public health challenge in China’. Register here.

Canberra, 8 February, 1.30–7.30 pm, ANU Climate Update 2018. Agenda and registration here.

National security wrap

The beat

Rifles in the streets?

Around 50 NSW riot squad officers have been issued with semi-automatic assault rifles—Colt M4 Carbines, to be exact. Intended to be deployed in terror incidents, the officers could also be called on to safeguard big public events, such as New Year’s Eve celebrations, ‘because of their deterrent effect’.

Aussie trains Zimbabwe’s female anti-poachers

Damien Mander, a former Australian Navy clearance diver and special operations sniper, is the founder of the International Anti-Poaching Foundation. In Zimbabwe, he started the Akashinga initiative, which enables unemployed women to become community leaders by joining the first armed, all-female anti-poaching combat unit. Tairo Manangagwa, the daughter of the country’s new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, has lent her support to the initiative. Earlier this month, she spent time training with the women in their fight to end illegal hunting. This photo gallery captures the program of female empowerment and conservation skills development.

Negative press for US police—again 

Yet another piece of disturbing footage has emerged of US police mishandling a black youth. Eleven-year-old Honestie Hodges found herself handcuffed at gunpoint by police in Grand Rapids, Michigan. An investigation has since been launched. It doesn’t seem like the city’s law officers learned any lessons from a highly criticised incident in March.

CT scan

Church attacked in Pakistan

A terrorist attack on a Methodist church in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province has killed at least nine people and injured at least 35. The attack was claimed by ISIS, which is particularly active in the area. It was a two-man attack: a suicide bomber detonated his bomb at the gate of the church, and a gunman opened fire on worshippers. The attack appears to have been an attempt to create religious division between Christian and Muslim Pakistanis.

UK increases CT funding

UK Home Secretary Amber Rudd has announced that UK police will receive an additional £50 million for counterterrorism activities. The extra funding will be used to boost the police presence in city centres and intelligence and surveillance capacities, allowing police ‘to meet head on the threat we face’. The move comes after the government was criticised by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn for trying to ‘protect the public on the cheap’, following government plans to cut police funding.

Australian troops continue training Philippines’ marines

Australian Defence Force personnel have completed a series of training exercises with their Philippine counterparts. The training was designed to teach the Philippine forces new techniques of urban warfare. More training programs are expected to be held early in 2018.

Check point

Drawing economic borders, barriers

With Brexit negotiations in full swing, the implications for the future economic borders in Europe and beyond are still unclear. This slide was presented to EU leaders by chief negotiator Michel Barnier, presenting different options based on the UK’s positions. The RAND Corporation meanwhile developed a calculator that allows customised prediction of different trade scenarios for different regions (UK, EU, US). Have a go here.

Big spender Customs and Border Protection

Private firm Accenture has been awarded almost US$300 million by US Customs and Border Protection in a desperate measure to boost the force’s numbers. The company will help with recruiting 5,000 additional border patrol personnel, 2,000 customs officers and 500 agents for the Office of Air and Marine Operations. This mandate follows an executive order signed by President Trump and has drawn criticism already.

The other side of the coin

While the missile allegedly fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen and intercepted by Saudi Arabia made headlines earlier this week, a statement by the United Nations went almost unnoticed. According to a UN spokesperson, the Saudi-led coalition has intensified air strikes in the war-torn country, costing more and more civilian lives: between 6 and 16 December alone, the strikes killed 136 civilians and injured another 87. These pictures capture the immense suffering of the Yemeni population.

First responder

Army humanitarian moments

The US Army has released its top humanitarian moments of 2017. The demand for disaster assistance in the US was relentless this year, with hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria requiring months-long responses involving thousands of troops. Even the California bushfires required involvement from the military, as the 1,900-strong force of the 49th Military Police Brigade controlled traffic and areas of entry. Likewise, this year Australia’s Army was also involved in many humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts, such as those in Vanuatu (video) and the Philippines (video).

Development aid struggles

While global poverty is falling overall, the poorest people in the most remote locations are still struggling. Ryan Briggs, assistant professor of political science at Virginia Tech, conducted a study of foreign development aid, concluding that it tends to find its way to urban and richer locations.

ADB to fund Pacific island resilience

The Asian Development Bank has announced it will provide US$15 million in financing to Samoa, Tonga and Tuvalu to improve resilience to disasters. The program, which is modelled on an ABD-supported initiative in the Cook Islands, aims to ‘facilitate faster early recovery and reconstruction’ to reduce the secondary economic and social costs of disasters.

The five-domains update

Sea state

During his visit to Beijing, Australia’s Chief of Navy, Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, was formally rebuked by his Chinese counterpart. Chinese Navy commander Shen Jinlong condemned the Australian Navy for having ‘compromised the overall trend of peace and stability in the area’. The rebuke came as the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative published new analysis showing that China has built 72 acres of new islands in the disputed South China Sea this year. Beijing claims that its island-building is peaceful ‘except for appropriate self-defence’.

President Donald Trump signed the 2018 National Defence Authorization Act on Tuesday, making the target of a 355-ship US navy official government policy. The act doesn’t specify a timeframe or give funding details for the expansion. Funding is a particular concern given the restraints put on government spending by the 2011 Budget Control Act. The lack of clarity from the government means that American shipbuilders haven’t yet taken steps to prepare for an increase in production.

Indian minister of defence Nirmala Sitharaman announced this week that India has launched its second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. The indigenously designed Arighant was launched in November and was ‘built with extensive Russian design and technical support’.

Flight path

Defence Minister Marise Payne took to Twitter to congratulate the six graduates of the RAAF fast-jet pilot course. Among them were two women—the RAAF’s first female fast-jet pilots. You can find an overview of ‘female firsts’ in the air force here.

Christmas is near and the 2017 iteration of the US military’s ‘longest running humanitarian airlift operation’ is in full swing. Operation Christmas Drop is a training exercise to improve the military’s humanitarian aid capabilities—along with strengthening interoperability with participating Japanese and Australian forces. The mission delivered supplies to more than 20,000 people in remote Micronesian communities over an area of around 6 million square kilometres in the West Pacific. Photos can be found here and video footage here.

With battlegrounds shrinking in Syria, a serious clash between Russian and US forces may be only a matter of time. In an incident confirmed by the Pentagon, two Russian Su-25s entered the airspace east of the Euphrates River that’s controlled by the US-led coalition. US F-22s fired warning flares, released chaff and tried to communicate with the Russian pilots through an emergency radio channel. But the Russian jets only left the area after 40 minutes of ‘multiple manoeuvres’ and a near-collision.

Rapid fire

The final results of the ADF blood donation challenge are in and the army has landed in first place, with 2,666 donations. The Defence organisation beat its own target of 7,000 donations: a national total of 7,314 will positively affect almost 22,000 lives.

AP reports that the private military contracting firm Wagner has deployed thousands of Russians to Syria to fight Islamic State. The report is the result of investigative work by the newspaper Fontanka and the Conflict Intelligence Team. Most of the Russians were attracted to join Wagner by the money. Their deaths don’t appear on official records and allow the Russian government to present low casualty numbers. Russian law officially ‘forbids the hiring of mercenaries or working as one’.

The British army’s Exice Maiden team is the first all-female team to attempt to cross Antarctica from coast to coast only using muscle power. On Sunday, the six women, who all serve in the army or army reserve, reached the South Pole, marking the completion of the first third of their journey. Their reaction to reaching the pole is captured in a blog post on their website titled ‘Hello from the bottom of the earth!’.

Zero gravity

In the New York Times this weekend, two F/A-18F Super Hornet pilots revealed that in 2004 they saw an unidentified flying object during a routine training flight 100 miles out in the Pacific. Video footage has confirmed the pilot’s testimony. UFOs have long been the subject of the public’s collective imagination, and the object of study by the US Department of Defense. An accompanying New York Times article reveals details of the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, which oversaw UFO sighting investigations at the Pentagon from 2007 to 2012.

A SpaceX Dragon capsule has made it to the International Space Station in time for Christmas, after being launched by a Falcon X rocket making its second flight. The successful launch of the reusable rocket was the 20th  by the company, and the 16th success in a row. The launch can be viewed on YouTube (video).

Carol Rääbus from the ABC has written a festive article about astronauts who have spent Christmas in space. During the first manned mission on the moon, Apollo 8 astronauts were also the first to celebrate Christmas in orbit, releasing this video on 24 December 1968.

Wired watchtower

Three men pleaded guilty in a US court to creating the Mirai botnet and using it for financial gain. Mirai, which infected more than 300,000 devices, was used to carry out distributed denial-of-service attacks. The men monetised the botnet by renting it to others and ‘demanding payments to halt attacks’. To create ‘plausible deniability’ for Mirai, Paras Jha, one of the creators, published the botnet’s source code online, which led to other attacks.

Security firm FireEye detected and responded to a ‘watershed’ cyberattack on Triconex industrial safety systems in the Middle East. Triconex is used ‘in the energy industry, including at nuclear facilities, and oil and gas plants’. The system was compromised by malware known as Triton, which can prevent safety mechanisms from functioning as intended. FireEye released a statement saying that the attacker was ‘developing the capability to cause physical damage’.

The US army’s experience of cyber operations against IS could shape the future of combat. A unit called Joint Task Force Ares in the US Cyber Command worked with intelligence, cyber, special ops, and international partners against IS. General Raymond Thomas, the head of US Special Operations Command, said the military can ‘only achieve exquisite effects like this’ by combining various capabilities, ‘including cyber weapons’.

ASPI suggests

The world

Welcome to the last ‘ASPI suggests’ of 2017. Let’s kick things off with a look back at the year. The New York Times has published a list of its most-read stories of 2017 and it’s exhausting just to flick through. The topics include the Las Vegas gunman, Hurricane Irma, Harvey Weinstein, Charlottesville, Sean Spicer’s resignation and James Comey’s dismissal—and that’s just in the top 20.

President Donald Trump has redefined what it means to hold the highest office in the world: US policy appears now to be guided by Trump’s impulsive reactions rather than by a careful strategy curated by a team of advisers. This New York Times article gives a fantastic insight into Trump’s frantic mindset and considers whether he will ‘bend, and possibly break, the office to his will’.

The opioid crisis is one of the worst public health emergencies experienced by the US in the past decade. This essay from The New Yorker offers a compelling account of how healthcare issues are dividing America, particularly over the questions of whether healthcare should be viewed as a right or a privilege, and what the role of government should have in providing welfare.

The Harvey Weinstein scandal (published first by the New York Times and The New Yorker) sparked a revolution that has exposed harrowing experiences of sexual harassment and assault against women across industries ranging from media and the arts to politics and national security. Time magazine awarded its Person of the Year to ‘The silence breakers’—the women who came forward to hold powerful men accountable.

How does the army recruit? This piece explores the challenges faced by the US military to recruit in an era where only 29% of Americans aged 17 to 24 meet the requirements to enlist.

It’s been a terrible year for Venezuela and its president, Nicolas Maduro. Although Maduro looks set to run again in 2018, protests against his rule have torn the country apart, as this photo essay from The Atlantic shows. For those of us on the outside looking in at events in Venezuela, the Washington Post has these five insights to help us get the story straight.

Jumping to the other side of the Pacific, 2017 has been a bumper year for Chinese President Xi Jinping. China’s continued rise and Xi’s performance at the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party convinced the Economist (among others) that Xi is now the world’s most powerful man.

Olivier Roy traces the ‘Islamisation of radicalism’, explaining how rebellious individuals have ‘found in Islam the paradigm of their total revolt’. It’s a fascinating, well-argued piece for anyone who’s interested in understanding how the ideology of radical Islamist groups seduces recruits.

For the palaeontologists and geologists, National Geographic has a fascinating profile about pterosaurs and why they may have been the weirdest creatures with wings.

The Washington Post explains how the internet and social media have shortened our attention spans, and why it’s important to preserve the culture of reading books in the age of technology. On the other hand, this is probably the best thing we’ve seen all year and doesn’t require much attention at all: generate your very own national security haiku. Give it a go.

ASPI’s own Malcolm Davis and Andrew Davies give their expert opinions on the functionality of the imperial all-terrain armoured transport walkers and their First Order descendants from the Star Wars films. Needless to say that if the Rebellion had had ASPI in its corner, Hoth wouldn’t have been such a disaster!

Tech geek of the week

China’s military needs to recruit millennials who may identify more with street rap than with traditional patriotic themes. Last year the PLA produced its own rap video, called ‘Battle declaration’, to encourage young Chinese to join up (translations of lyrics here). Contrast that with a more traditional approach covering PLA Navy aircraft carrier trials on their first aircraft carrier, CV Liaoning.

The US Navy’s three Zumwalt-class land-attack destroyers are being transformed into surface warfare ships because defeating adversaries’ surface ships is a greater priority than shore bombardment. Also, their key weapon, the electromagnetic railgun that could fling projectiles hundreds of kilometres, doesn’t work.

US Navy ballistic-missile defence (BMD) capabilities may not be all they’re cracked up to be. A disturbing read notes that tests of the SM-3 BMD system are never done under realistic conditions. According to a former skipper, ‘Every time a ship gets prepared to do a SM-3 shot, quite literally, a team of rocket scientists comes on board and they groom the system’.

The same can be said for the land-based missile defence system in California and Alaska, where interceptors have been tested only under optimal conditions, and then hit their targets only 50% of the time.

We end the year with an F-22 Raptor engaging an A-4 Skyhawk in a dogfight over Naval Air Station Fallon in Nevada. The producers of Top Gun: Maverick (Tom Cruise is back as an aging admiral, no doubt still feeling the need for speed) should take note that stealth aircraft can dogfight!

Podcasts

Michael Morrell’s Intelligence Matters series has been a corker. The latest episode talks to former deputy director of US Naval Intelligence Terry Roberts on the evolution of cybercrime and how to counter the threat.

The Economist podcast has an interview with Nadia Tolokonnikova, a member of Russian protest group Pussy Riot. It’s an interesting insight into the mind of a protester, but should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

After the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published its recent report on military expenditure, the organisation’s director, Aude Fleurant, commented on the rise in annual arms sales and whether increased demand for weapons indicates that the world is less safe.

Videos

‘In your face: China’s all-seeing state’: John Sudworth reports for the BBC on China’s surveillance system that operates using AI technology. The amount of data that’s collected about each person is terrifying.

Ever fancied yourself a spy? Check out this amazing interactive interview simulation from the Australian Secret Intelligence Service to see whether you’ve got what it takes.

‘Slaughterbots’? This short film dramatises the potential use of intelligent drones.

National security wrap

The beat

Drugs in flames

The Pakistani Anti-Narcotics Force (ANF) held its 2017 drug-burning ceremony in Islamabad. In the presence of national officials and international representatives such as the UN Office of Drugs and Crime country head, the ANF burned more than 1.8 metric tons of narcotics. That’s only a fraction of the 135 metric tons of drugs they’ve disposed of so far this year. The moment was captured in this short video and this photo of a group of female ANF members posing in front of the flames.

Unrest in Uganda?

The parliament in Kampala began the second reading of the Constitution Amendment Bill, dubbed the ‘Age Limit Bill’, which proposes to change article 102(b) of the constitution to lift the current age limit of 75 off the country’s presidency. The parliament’s speaker ordered all security officers other than police to vacate the parliament, while outside the police presence was stepped up to prepare for anticipated protests.

Blame the FBI

This week, Nicholas Young became the ‘first police officer ever to face terrorism charges in the US’. His federal court trial began on Tuesday following a six-year FBI investigation. Young is accused of providing material support to Islamic State. The defence team is claiming that he was entrapped by federal agents, while the prosecution seeks to use his long history as a Nazi sympathiser as evidence.

CT scan

The plan to protect Tokyo 2020

The Japanese government has announced its plan for protecting the 2020 Tokyo Olympics from terrorism. Among seven key items, the plan places particular emphasis on gathering and analysing information. Japan will set up a new counterterrorism information centre, which will include officials from 11 government entities, to facilitate information-sharing about potential attacks. The plan also includes steps to protect ‘soft targets’, such as train stations and airports, and to improve rescue operations.

RIC all for CT

Russia, India and China (RIC) have called for greater international cooperation on counterterrorism and stressed the role of individual states in combating terrorism within their own borders. In a statement released after the 15th RIC trilateral in Delhi, the three foreign ministers declared that ‘their cooperation was not directed against any nation’. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov described the meeting as a ‘candid, trust-based and frank exchange of views’ and offered Moscow’s support to Islamabad in combating terrorism in Pakistan.

Turkish academics on trial

The first trials of 1,128 academics who signed the ‘Academics for Peace’ petition have begun in Turkey. The prosecution is arguing that by signing the petition, which condemned the Turkish government’s actions against the country’s Kurdish minority, the academics had engaged in ‘making propaganda for a terrorist organisation’.

Check point

Kurdish–Iraqi cooperation

US-backed Kurdish forces are ‘coordinating’ with the Iraqi army to secure the Syrian–Iraqi border against the remnants of Islamic State. Commanders from the two militaries met on Sunday to ‘consult on coordinating’ border security and ‘prevent infiltration by Daesh on either side of the border’. Commanders agreed to set up observation posts along the border. This cooperation suggests that Iraqi–Kurdish relations are improving, after the Kurdish independence referendum severely backfired.

Dangerous drones

An Indian Army IAI Heron drone crashed in the Chumbi Valley in China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. The exact date of the crash isn’t known; however, Chinese protests related to the event occurred in the middle of last week. India bought 10 advanced Israeli-made Heron drones earlier this year for a total of US$400 million.

Refugee abuse in the Balkans

According to German-based NGO Rigardu, refugees and migrants attempting to cross from Serbia into Europe are enduring widespread illegal deportations and police violence, including physical assaults and electric shocks. Statements were gathered from people who claimed they had witnessed violence perpetrated by Croatian police. Many statements are supported by pictures of the injuries. Theft from refugees was also reported.

First responder

Small crises are big problems

According to Tilly Alcayna, a researcher at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, ignoring small crises is a recipe for global disaster. At least 42% of total economic losses in low- and middle-income countries are from small, recurrent events. Therefore, ‘neglected crises’ that may not make as many headlines could be a much better destination for development and resilience funding than the severe and attention-grabbing events humanitarian organisations usually fundraise for.

Extreme testing of extreme weather

Hiroko Tabuchi of the New York Times reported on a small team of workers who spend their time hurling debris, setting off explosions and simulating earthquakes. The team is researching hazards caused by extreme weather events for the insurance company FM Global. If being paid to cause destruction sounds like a dream job to you, then you’re in luck as FM Global is currently hiring.

Disaster drones

Jim Moore, from the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, followed members of Roboticists Without Borders while they gathered data about disaster-prone areas using drone technology. The group uses consumer drone systems to map out areas and processes the information so that it can be used by state and local emergency managers. The group also makes its drones available to provide active support when disasters hit.

ASPI suggests

The world

Donald Trump doesn’t let a week slip by without throwing a spanner in the works. His decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital overturned more than two decades of US foreign policy in the Middle East. Brookings analyses the puzzling question of why Trump felt compelled to make that decision, which deviates from the administration’s own Middle East agenda. David Shulman discusses Shimon Peres’ posthumous memoir, which reveals ‘mixed patches of light and darkness’ about a man who played a vital role in the modern history of Israel.

Two nuanced analysis pieces on next steps for Iraq came out this week. Carnegie’s Yezid Sayigh traces  three major internal challenges facing Iraqi politics and governance, to suggest how the risk of armed conflict may be mitigated or contained. Veteran Iraq expert Emma Sky, writing for Foreign Affairs, puts the case for a continued US presence in Iraq, urging policymakers in Washington to learn from past mistakes.

Following the killing of Yemen’s ex-president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, an interesting analysis from the New York Times looks at the fates of five of the Arab world’s ‘befallen’ leaders from Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.

It seems that the post-truth era has filtered through even to coup-makers. Claudio Sopranzetti takes a closer look at how the militaries used ‘alternative facts’ to frame the narrative of the coups in Zimbabwe, Thailand and Egypt. Speaking of overstating the facts—new evidence suggests  that the Saudis didn’t shoot down the ballistic missile fired at Riyadh by Houthi rebels last month after all. Astonishingly, it looks as though the missile’s warhead may have exploded near the airport’s domestic terminal. The latest ballistic and cruise missile threat report from the US Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center is out; read it here.

In the New Statesman, Graham Allison explains three elements of China’s President Xi Jinping: Xi the survivor, with ‘iron in his soul’; Xi the strategist, risen to ‘chairman of everything’; and Xi’s statecraft, leading China to stand ‘tall and strong in the East’. To bring Allison’s China forecasts a little closer to home, have a look at this piece from China’s Global Times about Australia’s recent foreign policy white paper and this piece from the Australian about China’s reaction to Australia’s foreign interference laws.

Britain’s Royal Navy looks set to return to the Indo-Pacific. The Asia Times discusses the difficulties of achieving the UK government’s goal of expanding its global footprint with such a small fleet.

Aerial views of Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh are innovatively portrayed in this infographic. The images link the practical challenges faced by refugees in the camps (such as hostile terrain, lack of space, contaminated water supplies and access to latrines) with the related health risks.

Australia controversially granted the provocative alt-right British dilettante Milo Yiannopoulos the opportunity to make a speech in Parliament House during his Australian tour. Providing a ‘self-proclaimed troll’ a platform to speak up on the Hill sparked violent protests. The Australian castigates the identity politics police, and an editorial in the Age draws the line  between hate speech and free speech.

Tech geek of the week

Nuclear-powered drones could soon be a possibility, as both China and the US develop airborne reactors. Nuclear-powered unmanned aerial vehicles can stay aloft for months, and have more power for sensors and directed-energy weapons like ‘lasers’. Chinese researchers are envisaging such drones operating over the sea, so that ‘if an accident happens, it crashes into the sea.’

A new report is out on how China intends to use AI to leapfrog over the US and gain a decisive edge. It talks about intelligent weapons, battlefield singularities in which AI machines take over, swarming, ‘cognitive radio and electronic warfare’, and a silicon commander working alongside humans in a headquarters.

Finally, if you want to think about possible dark futures, read about ‘the origins of the American military coup of 2037’—a fictional essay out of the US military’s most hallowed hall of learning, West Point. Suggesting a Chinese invasion of the West Coast, after years of neglect of the US military, this is powerful writing.

Videos

This instalment of Vox’s Borders series tells the story of a region between Nepal and China, historically outside the reach of a state, and the people who live there.

Dutch MEP Sophie in ‘t Veld spoke to the BBC’s Newsnight program and made plain her frustration at the vagaries of the UK’s Brexit negotiations.

Take a tour through Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa Mosque in this 360-degree virtual experience from Al Jazeera.

Podcasts

The BBC’s In Our Time history podcast takes a look at Picasso’s Guernica. Melvyn Bragg and a panel of experts discuss the composition and historical events that inspired the haunting masterpiece.

On her politics podcast on The Conversation this week, Michelle Grattan interviews John Blaxland about Australia’s ‘draconian’ new foreign interference laws and the possible unintended consequences for public discourse.

Events

Sydney, 10 December, 1900, Human Rights Watch: Human Rights Day 2017 reception at the Museum of Contemporary Art. Tickets here.

Canberra, 12 December, 1230, ANU: ‘Where should China stand in the international negotiations on intellectual property?’ Details about the seminar here.

Canberra, 13 December, 1730, ANU: ‘Women, peace and security: a new global index launch’. Register for the event here.

Melbourne, 14 December, 1800, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Separatism as a global issue’, a conversation with Professor Damien Kingsbury and Richard Iron. Tickets here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Britain is preparing to settle its ‘divorce bill’ with the European Union. Initial claims from presumptuous Brexiteers that Britain would be saving, not spending, have proved false—in the short term, at least. The potential payout could be as high as £90 billion. It’s a hugely complex and bureaucratic process, but this breakdown from the Times provides a neat summary of some of the terms and conditions.

Putting aside the ever-growing threat of North Korean nuclear war, many eyes remain fixed on China. David Ignatius gives a brief overview of China’s plan to take over the world. The China File has published a series of comments examining the Zimbabwe power transfer from a Chinese perspective. Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi is visiting China, and Obama and Trudeau are also due to visit President Xi. Lastly, The National calls for the Arab world to re-evaluate its relationship with China. Maybe Ignatius is on to something …

Check out The Conversation’s graphic comic strip explaining lone-actor terrorism with RUSI’s Raff Pantucci. It’s creative and informative, unlike the usual media coverage of terrorism, which tends to be pretty sensationalised and overblown.

Support for far-right extremism is becoming uncomfortably mainstream. This week, President Trump felt compelled to take to Twitter to share unverified anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant propaganda originating from Britain First. The organisation gained notoriety in 2016 when British Labour MP Jo Cox was fatally shot and stabbed by neo-Nazi Thomas Mair, who shouted ‘Britain first’ during the attack. Hope Not Hate—an anti-fascist advocacy group—analyses the organisation and the UK’s far-right movement in this report, and the Washington Post discusses the Polish neo-fascist movement.

An interesting report from the Center for European Policy Analysis examines how Russia has ‘weaponized information’. Maria A. Ressa explores the Philippines’ experience with propaganda techniques (part 1 of 3) and how this rhetoric can be challenged. This fascinating piece demonstrates how Nazi propagandists packaged Adolf Hitler to attract uncommitted voters by associating him with nature and sport.

Incidents of sexual harassment traverse a spectrum of professions and industries. Recently, 223 women in US national security roles signed an open letter saying that sexual harassment and discrimination are rampant in the US national security community. The Atlantic examines how Congress should deal with the current mess, in light of a sea of recent allegations and a 2016 survey highlighting deep-seated misconduct on the Hill. The Guardian picks Susan Sarandon’s brain in another worthwhile long read on sexism, power and politics from LA to DC, including her hesitancy about Hillary Clinton.

New research published by UK think tank Demos explores public attitudes to technology. Although the results confirm that most people see tech as an opportunity rather than a threat, there are concerns that the benefits won’t be shared equally. On the other hand, this piece from Hive explores the fantasy of a post–social media age and a potentially transitional obsession that could see us abandoning these platforms in the not so distant future.

Tech geek of the week

We’re focusing on air tech this week. The coolest item on our watch list is a rocket mini-drone designed to act as a decoy for combat aircraft that launch it. Called Firefly, it flies at Mach 0.8 to keep pace with the fighter. The drone is small—6.5 cm wide and 43 cm long—and is propelled by a rocket engine that keeps it flying for up to five minutes. It’s also equipped with a pop-out wing.

The OA-X program in the US is looking at turboprop-driven fixed-wing aircraft for close air support, armed reconnaissance, and support for combat search and rescue missions. The project is getting some significant opposition from those who argue that fast jets or attack helicopters are the answer. Others have a different perspective.

The US is finally getting serious about new long-range air-to-air missiles under the ‘Long-range Engagement Weapon’ program. Russia’s and China’s progress on very long-range air-to-air weapons is already allowing them to ‘outstick’ the US in the beyond-visual-range air-to-air battle. And with US stealth technology challenged by counter-stealth sensors and potentially quantum technologies, it’s important that the US quickly close any operational gap.

The future of stealth may influence Japan’s plans for its F-3 fifth-generation fighter. Decisions about the acquisition of the F-3 have been delayed, primarily because of competing needs to address urgent missile defence requirements. However, Japan would be wise to wait rather than invest in a capability whose effectiveness might be quickly eroded.

Videos

Admiral Sir Philip Jones KCB ADC, First Sea Lord and Chief of the Naval Staff, Royal Navy, spoke on the lessons of the Gallipoli campaign and its significance in the planning of future combined operations.

This animated video from WTTW is about the project to reverse the flow of the Chicago River.

Here is the footage of the North Korean defector making his daring escape across the Korean border.

Podcasts

Intelligence Matters: Michael Morell interviews Philip Gordon on the brewing crisis in the Middle East and the direct implications of actions on the ground for national security in the US.

Guardian Books: Richard Lea discusses the AI revolution with physicist and AI campaigner Max Tegmark and science fiction writer Ken MacLeod.

The Dead Prussian: Mick Cook interviews Sir Lawrence Freedman of Kings College London on the future of war.

Events

Canberra, 5 December, 1530, Australian Institute of International Affairs: 2017 foreign policy white paper briefing with AIIA National President Allan Gyngell and ANU Professor John Blaxland. Tickets here.

Canberra, 7 December, 1730, ANU College of Law: The Annual Korby Lecture on International Law. Register here.

Canberra, 8 December, 1215, Australian Centre on China in the World: In conversation with Joe Hockey. Register here.