Tag Archive for: General

ASPI suggests

The world

Although French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to be on his best behaviour during his visit to Washington, his speech to Congress demonstrated that the Franco–American partnership will undoubtedly be tested. Carnegie offers a slick analysis of the most pressing issues concerning Paris, especially where US President Donald Trump and Macron are likely to butt heads: climate change, the Iranian nuclear deal and trade policy.

After two weeks of peaceful protests in Armenia (video explainer), former president-turned-Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned. Foreign Policy pulls the plug on speculation that Russia was involved, Chatham House dissects the local political challenges facing the small Eastern European state and Carnegie situates domestic challenges related to populism and nationalism within wider international trends such as a resurgent Russia and relations with the EU.

Speaking of nationalism and populism, Salon’s latest piece on the rise of ‘fascist fashion’ is a fascinating read, explaining how certain trends and styles should be understood to be embedded in particular social and cultural environments that could serve as gateways to radicalisation. For a more academic perspective, read Daniela Pisoiu’s excellent study of the application of subcultural theory to individual cases of jihadi and right-wing radicalisation in Germany. Vice’s exposé on American sociologist Theodore Abel’s 1934 experiment explains why people were (and are) attracted to Nazism. And for those with a penchant for tackling extremism digitally, check out this new plug-in software—‘No Platform for Fascism’—intended to help anyone who wants to register a complaint about far-right video content on YouTube.

An intriguing study from Lancaster University explores human perceptions of colour—in particular, how our perception of colour is likely down to personal experience such as synaesthesia, terminology or even language. To follow, here’s a selection of studies that analyse different aspects of language: CSIS discusses language barriers in Iraqi Kurdistan, Quartz talks about the resource potential of Africa’s multilingualism, and the ABC’s in-house language researcher Tiger Webb dissects Australians’ historic struggle to pronounce ‘Australia’.

A grim piece explores one of the worst excesses of the British Empire: the Criminal Tribes Act passed in 1871. The act allowed particular Indian communities to be designated as ‘hereditary criminals’ in order to deal with the dangers of mass unemployment (as a result of British policy). Many were classified as ‘criminal tribes’ and forced to work. This became a way of generating a ‘powerless, commoditized labour force’.

A couple of long reads are well worth your time: Maya Rao recounts life as a woman on the North Dakota oilfields, and The New Yorker explores how American racism influenced Hitler. Over at the Modern War Institute, commander of the Australian Defence College, Major General Mick Ryan, has published a reading list covering all things artificial intelligence. And in a punchy interview for GQ, former Labour Party leader Ed Miliband talks to Tony Blair’s former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell. Topics include Brexit and bacon sarnies, a familiar struggle for his Australian counterpart, it seems …

Tech geek

Future fighter aircraft have been in the headlines this week. Lockheed Martin is promoting the idea of an F-22/F-35 hybrid for Japan that would involve integrating advanced F-35 avionics and computers into an updated F-22 airframe. Such an aircraft—if it were ever made—‘could be superior to both original versions’. The challenge would be affording what would be an entirely new fighter program in an already tight fiscal environment.

China is suggesting that future development of the J-20 could include ‘metamaterials’ that will enhance the aircraft’s stealth capabilities. If true, exploiting metamaterials would make it hard to detect the jet with radar, and potentially also by the human eye, bringing a Star Trek–style ‘cloaking device’ a step closer to becoming fact, not science fiction.

Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow is scheduled for 9 May. This is an annual opportunity for Russia to put its advanced military technology on display. Likely to appear this year are the T‑14 Armata main battle tank, the Su‑57 fifth-generation fighter and Russia’s new BMPT‑75 ‘Terminator 2’ urban warfare vehicle. Russian MiG‑31BM interceptors armed with Mach 10 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles may also fly over Moscow. Watch a video (with Russian audio) of rehearsals here. The Russians will also demonstrate robotic tanks for the first time.

Finally, and given we’re talking about Terminators, a new report from the RAND Corporation suggests that artificial intelligence might destabilise nuclear deterrence by making it easier to detect and track an opponent’s nuclear forces, thus making a first strike easier.

Multimedia

This New York Times photo series captures the stark smog pollution in Poland, where 19 million people use coal to heat their homes, resulting in 48,000 deaths ‘annually from illnesses related to poor air quality’.

In this documentary, DW looks at Dennis Rodman’s naïve attempts to get involved as a peacemaker on the Korean peninsula. [42:31]

Buzzfeed and Apple News started distributing the mini-documentary series ‘Future History: 1968’, which looks at events from 1968 with technology from today. Very cool! [each episode approximately 10:00]

Podcasts

The BBC Worlds Service’s Tim Whewell talks to Russian mothers whose sons took their wives and children with them when they went to fight for IS. The mothers are now trying to get their daughters-in-law and grandchildren back. Whewell also travels to Iraq to trace the missing families’ routes and learn their fate. [26:29]

Beth Oppenheim talks to Sophia Besch about the difficulties the UK and the EU face as they try to negotiate the conditions for European military cooperation and defence industrial policy after Brexit for the Centre for European Reform. [14:09]

Events

Canberra, 30 April, 3.30–5.00 pm, ANU Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ‘Unravelling the inter-Korean summit’. Info and registration here.

Sydney, 30 April, 5–7 pm, AIPIO NSW and Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University, ‘Producing intelligence collaboratively’. More here.

Canberra, 2 May, 11 am, ANU College of Science: ‘Talking to artificial intelligence: an anthropologist’s perspective’. Details here.

ASPI suggests

The world

The justifications put forward by allied nations to strike the Assad regime in Syria last week rest on the fact that using chemical weapons is unequivocally unacceptable. Three powerful pieces—one each from Andrew Rawnsley and Haid Haid in the Guardian, and a third by Shiraz Maher and John Bew in New Statesman—provide insightful analyses of the price paid by Syrians for the international community’s policy failures. A final piece from the European Council on Foreign Relations provides interesting commentary on how the lack of a broader strategic policy for Syria threatens to escalate the conflict.

A recent Bloomberg View analysis discusses why Germany didn’t participate in last week’s strikes on Syria while it is active in its own way, reflecting Chancellor Angela Merkel’s compromise policy. In an interview for Der Spiegel, Germany’s new Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, argues for a change of direction in German foreign policy. To contextualise this, read The Economist’s special report on ‘The new Germans’, which explores the changing political, economic and social culture in Germany, and how the country deals with identity questions.

Cases of sexual violence across India are rampant, but the horrific rape and murder of 8-year-old Muslim girl Asifa Bano three months ago has sparked mass protests. Al Jazeera’s in-depth feature details the case, and CNN analyses the ‘entanglement of party politics and sexual violence’, situating current events within a widening national crisis of Hindu nationalist–inspired violence against Muslims. Older articles in DW and by Reuters discuss the general growing Islamophobia in Southeast Asia.

An era seems to have ended in the Caribbean: Cuba’s National Assembly chose Miguel Díaz-Canel to replace Raúl Castro as president. The Conversation profiles the new man and the challenges he faces.

New research by the German Marshall Fund explores the role of the Indo-Pacific in determining the liberal international order’s future. For those with a strong subject matter interest, check out Justin Vaïsse’s new biography of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Polish-American strategist and national security adviser to Jimmy Carter, who ‘grappled with the dilemma of relative [US] decline and the rise of new international challenges’. On the decline of liberal democracy in other regions, Ivan Krastev worries in Foreign Affairs about the success of populists in establishing ‘a new illiberal consensus’ in Hungary and Poland. An alternative perspective in the Independent offers an ‘intimate portrait of Poland and its people’ in 18 black-and-white photos.

For arts and culture fans, New Statesman profiles one of cinema’s greatest oeuvres, Casablanca, arguing that the mostly immigrant cast was a key, defining feature of the film’s sophistication and cultural significance. The Broadway musical Hamilton—a ‘portrayal of immigrant inclusiveness [that] could not be more timely—is enjoying similarly good fortune in terms of its contemporary relevance. Kendrick Lamar winning a Pulitzer Prize for music also demonstrates that the arts must reflect social change.

And for a final, quirky and fascinating read, The Atlantic documents the vast world of wasps. A bit specialised perhaps, but good for building up a store of freaky facts.

Tech geek

The new Lockheed Martin AGM-158B joint air-to-surface standoff missile–extended range (JASSM-ER) was one of the weapons used by the US and allies during the latest Syria strikes. War is Boring and The National Interest have detailed analysis of the JASSM-ER. The missiles were launched from B-1B bombers, demonstrating that the aircraft remains ‘bad to the bone’ in a standoff role.

Russia is developing its advanced T-14 Armata main battle tank, which has an active protection system and an unmanned turret, as well as an optional upgrade to a 152-millimetre main gun that would significantly outrange 120-millimetre guns on NATO tanks. There’s debate over whether the 152-millimetre gun would have the ability to fire nuclear rounds (a very bad idea for several reasons). But according to IISS, Russia at best will be able to afford 100 of the tanks by 2020. Here’s an excellent analysis of the T-14 Armata.

With growing challenges from China’s PLA Navy eroding the US Navy’s qualitative lead, and in some respects its quantitative advantage as well, decision-makers in Washington are thinking about next-generation capability. This explains how the need to replace the aging Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruisers is becoming more urgent. Also, the US Navy’s ‘next-generation frigate’ (FFG(X)) program will produce 20 new FFGs after problems in the littoral combat ship program.

Finally, here’s an interesting analysis on the F-35 from the US Air Force Chief of Staff, General David Goldfein, who describes the jet as a ‘computer that flies’.

Multimedia

In this photo series, the Guardian shows the rather bleak life of the remaining inhabitants in the Russian Arctic city of Vorkuta.

101 East investigates whether there’s a new stolen generation in Australia because more Indigenous children are being removed from their families than ever before. [26:00—includes graphic descriptions of violence and abuse]

Has Sweden’s open-door immigration policy caused social tension? The left sees Sweden as a paragon of social justice and liberalism; the right says there’s a link between crime and immigration. BBC Newsnight explains. [11:39]

Podcasts

ABC Nightlife talks about life after a career in the Australian Defence Force with several former Australian Army officers. [50:09]

British anti-fascist organisation ‘HOPE not hate’ aired its inaugural podcast about the latest activities of the far-right in Britain, plus some tight analysis of racism, radicalisation and integration. [35:48]

Events

Canberra, Monday, 23 April, 6–7 pm, ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, ‘Morale and combat motivation of British and Anzac troops at Gallipoli’. Register here.

Canberra, Thursday, 26 April, 2–4 pm, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, ‘The bereaved families of Korea’s grievous war’. Registration essential.

Sydney, Thursday, 26 April, 6–7.30 pm, The University of Sydney, ‘The political economy of Han Xinjiang: organised dependency and lucrative chaos’ with ANU’s Tom Cliff. Details and registration here.

ASPI suggests

The world

This week found the war in Syria right back on the front page: this short Atlantic Council blog post discusses Donald Trump’s own red line on chemical weapons. With the president initially exclaiming that airstrikes could ‘be very soon or not so soon at all’, this timely journal article explores under what conditions states opt to use airpower as a coercive tool.

Research from German think tank SWP looks at the central role that controlling Syria’s airspace will play in determining the country’s future. Two Brookings fellows and a former US ambassador to Syria wrote in USA Today that withdrawing US troops could lead to the rise of ISIS 2.0. Evelyn Farkas provides trenchant policy advice for Trump in FP. And John Hopkins’ Majda Ruge penned a passionate op-ed on the international community’s failure in its responsibility to protect, drawing on her own experiences in Sarajevo in 1992.

The changing nature of warfare is a topic regularly featured on The Strategist. This week Robert H. Scales reminisces about his tenure as head of the US Army’s Army After Next project and offers lessons on how to avoid incorrectly forecasting the future of warfare. Edward Lucas shows how the Salisbury attack was an example of hybrid warfare. And Roman Shleynov briefly outlines the history of Novichok.

Claims that China plans to build a military base in Vanuatu brought strong denials from Beijing and generated plenty of debate. The BBC summarises how nations have responded to the story. It’s also worth recalling the CSIS research on Beijing’s base building in the South China Sea in 2017. And Joanne Wallis looks at China’s growing influence in the Pacific for The Strategist.

More on China, this Al-Jazeera feature examines the country’s global web of spies that makes possible its surveillance (and silencing) of dissidents abroad. Other authoritarian governments across Asia also try to control discourse online, especially on social media platforms.

Facebook was a hot topic in the US, where CEO Mark Zuckerberg was grilled by Congress on the platform’s data collection habits. The Economist analyses how he failed to reassure the public about Facebook’s privacy standards, and The Atlantic looks at the three big questions Zuckerberg hasn’t answered. And for amusement, read Inc.’s article on some of the weird and wacky questions that were asked.

A new Witness episode portrays the struggles of El Salvadorians deported from the US [25:00]. Many had previously fled El Salvador’s extreme gang violence. Facing uncertainty, the country’s growing call centre industry presents a chance for a future for these returnees. Sarah Esther Maslin highlights in The Economist’s 1843 magazine that the church offers an alternative to gangs like Barrio 18 and MS-13.

And for bookworms, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s new book, Fascism: a warning, hit the shelves on Tuesday. She looks at the rise of authoritarianism that’s threatening democracy around the world, and sounds a dire warning. NPR’s interview delivers the highlights in concise form.

Tech geek

Given a potentially imminent risk of a direct military clash between the US and its allies against Russia in Syria, we start off with the big picture of US, French and British combat assets in theatre, courtesy of IISS.

Russian air defence capabilities in Syria include combat aircraft and the potent S-400 and S-300VM SAM systems. Add in the challenge posed by Russia’s potent electronic warfare capability. Here’s an interesting article on how US and allied forces might handle this threat if the worst happens.

Unless the US is prepared to risk striking Russian forces, strike options are limited. Justin Bronk at RUSI examines this conundrum, suggesting that any strikes are likely to be symbolic and ineffective. There’s also an excellent analysis at Stratfor on what options the US might consider.

Turning away from Syria, space advocates (including this one) are over the moon (pun intended) with a decision by Rolls Royce and Boeing to support Reaction Engines and its SABRE combined-cycle air-breathing rocket. This will enable single-stage or two-stage-to-orbit access to space with airline-style efficiencies, as well as hypersonic airliners.

China is developing air-launched ballistic missiles. This would represent a new type of long-range missile capability for China, for both nuclear and conventional missions. When matched with a new bomber—the H-20, now in development—the missiles will strengthen China’s ability to project precise and rapid firepower at long range.

Multimedia

Politico takes you to Italy and captures life in Gardone Val Trompia, the village producing 70% of the EU’s small firearms and supplying 40% of the global market.

This interactive New York Times feature portrays some of the young women that were among the Chibok girls that Boko Haram kidnapped four years ago.

Twenty years after the Good Friday Agreement, BBC Newsnight interviews former Taoiseach (head of the Irish government) Bertie Ahern. [10:24]

Podcasts

This Reckonings episode brings together a former neo-Nazi and a former jihadist. They talk about their experiences and what attracted them to violent ideology. [59:45—jump to 1:40]

The Modern War Institute podcast hosts researchers who interviewed Americans who had travelled to Iraq and Syria to fight against ISIS. [32:00]

We’ve found a new podcast, Long Distance Call, in which Indonesia-based Aussie journalist Eliza Harvey converses with her mother, ABC broadcaster Geraldine Doogue, about current affairs and other things. This week they talk about the journalism industry, John Le Carre and Hillary Clinton as the wrong candidate. [30:51]

Events

Sydney, 16, 17 and 20 April, 5.30–7.30 pm, Power House Museum, ‘Rosi Braidotti: the human in the age of technology and climate change’ as part of the 2018 Thinking Out Loud Lectures program. Further info and tickets here.

Melbourne, 17 April, 6.30–7.30 pm, University of Melbourne, ‘Safeguarding planetary health, banning nuclear weapons and the first Nobel Peace Prize born in Australia’. Info and registration here.

Canberra, 18 April, 7–8 pm, ANU College of Law, ‘An Australian bill of rights’ with former president of the Australian Human Rights Commission, Gillian Triggs. Info here.

National security wrap

The beat

Extended police mandate in Haiti

The UN Security Council extended the mandate of the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH). The mission is supporting the national police and assisting the Haitian government to strengthen rule of law. MINUJUSTH deploys seven police units and 295 individual police officers. The police units replaced UN peacekeeping troops, which left Haiti last year. The current mandate focuses on reforming the justice system. Haiti has been criticised for failing to address the longstanding issues of pre-trial detention and prison overcrowding.

Policing the cyber landscape

Technology is developing at unprecedented rates. To what extent are law enforcement agencies able to keep up? According to ASPI’s John Coyne, Australia’s law enforcement agencies need to improve their abilities to respond to new technology threats. He recommends strengthening public–private partnerships, improving recruitment and retention of technology skills, and shortening the time lag between criminal use of new technology and law enforcement’s response. It’s estimated that cybercrime costs the Australian economy $1 billion annually.

Beware the buzzing

Speaking of technological threats, visitors to the Queensland Commonwealth Games have been reminded to leave their drones at home. Such reminders are now regularly issued before major events (see #leaveyourdroneathome). Arguments about the right to fly drones, and law enforcement’s use of the technology, have caused friction between the public, police and regulatory bodies. But as ISIS’s use of drones in Syria has shown, drones pose a new risk to the public—particularly at large events—and law enforcement don’t yet have the means to mitigate the threat.

CT scan

Profile of a terrorist

This week two reports examined why people join terrorist organisations. The French Institute for International Relations released 137 shades of terrorism, which details common denominators among French jihadists such as limited education, criminal activity, ties to North Africa and poor integration into the labour market. New America, a US think tank, released the second volume of its report, All jihad is local, which examines data on 1,800 ISIS fighters and finds similar, but more detailed, patterns in ISIS mobilisation efforts. Terror profiles are contentious—fitting the profile doesn’t mean someone will become a jihadist. However, as the New America researchers note, preventing jihadist recruitment requires understanding and addressing the myriad factors that lead to radicalisation.

Can we avoid supporting illiberalism?

An Indonesian preacher has been sentenced to nine years in prison for inciting last May’s Jakarta suicide bombing. The prosecution had sought the death penalty, which has been common in Indonesia. Another radical cleric is awaiting sentencing and could receive the death penalty, and other convicted terrorists are on death row. The sentencing comes a month after Australia signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with ASEAN to counter international terrorism. The MOU seemed to promise Australian technical support to its ASEAN partners. As ASPI’s Isaac Kfir writes, delivering on such promises can be difficult for liberal democracies like Australia that want to support regional counterterrorism efforts without condoning or enabling oppressive policies. The Indonesian cases exemplify the conundrum—Australia is strongly against the death penalty.

Checkpoint

Kenyan border instability

Kenya suspended the construction of a 700 kilometre-long security wall on its border with Somalia. The construction, aimed at preventing al-Shabaab militias from crossing into Kenya, was criticised by Somalia, which said the wall encroached on its land. In addition, 64 houses in Mandera that sit directly on the border would have been destroyed. Interpeace has documented the crisis in Mandera. The most pressing impediments to peace—the lack of trust between locals and security forces, and  the lack of coordination of cross-border traffic—have all been left unaddressed due to the wall’s construction.

Good Friday Agreement under threat

The looming spectre of Brexit could see a hard border imposed along the UK’s only land border with the EU—between Northern Ireland and the independent south. Jonathan Powell, who negotiated the Good Friday Agreement on behalf of the UK, and Hillary Clinton warn that such a border would reopen sectarian conflict by slowing movement and emphasising differences. As negotiations to find an alternative come up empty, expect to see more in this space.

First responder

Opportunity in times of crisis

The landlocked and disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia is seeing glimpses of positive change amid its longstanding internal conflict. Women are becoming empowered to rise to leadership positions, as evidenced by the appointment of Deputy Foreign Minister Armine Aleksanyan. In a highly patriarchal region where about one-third of the male population is involved in the conflict, increasing the participation of women in leadership roles is seen as an historic opportunity. Armine Aleksanyan has been a vocal advocate for upholding human rights in Nagorno-Karabakh’s peace processes.

Power to the people in Colombia

What started as a campaign by a group of young Colombians to save the Amazon rainforest has ended in a court ruling against their government. The Colombian Supreme Court has ordered local and national governments, environment and agriculture ministries, and environmental authorities to immediately address deforestation. This ruling is a result of a lawsuit filed against the government in January by 25 young people demanding that the environment be protected from deforestation and climate change. In announcing their ruling, judges raised their concerns that deforestation rates increased by 44% from 2015 to 2016. The Colombian government now has four months to create an action plan.

Helping victims of human trafficking—there’s an app for that

A free app is being piloted in Thailand to help identify victims of human trafficking. The app, Appraise, aims to tackle the challenge of identifying victims so that local response teams can provide support more efficiently. The technology will minimise the potential bias of interviewers and interpreters and will give victims more privacy in fully detailing their experiences without fear of reprisal. Human trafficking is estimated to generate profits of A$200 billion each year.

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The world

Welcome back after a long Easter weekend that was anything but peaceful. Violence erupted along the troubled border between Israel and Gaza: Israeli forces killed 18 Palestinians and injured hundreds more. Vox presents both sides, while Al Jazeera describes the chaos in a Gaza hospital. The Atlantic analyses Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to renege on an agreement with UNHCR to resettle refugees only hours after agreeing to it.

Easter also kept embassies worldwide busy as Russia expelled more than 150 diplomats from more than a dozen countries in retaliation for the earlier expulsions by Western governments of Russian representatives. Despite the initial solidarity in responding to the assassination attempt on Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, Anne Applebaum argues that a Western strategy towards Russia is still missing. And if you need a quick summary of the whole incident, watch ASPI’s 6-minute explainer.

Tit-for-tat is also on display as China and the US impose trade tariffs against each other. The BBC’s Karishma Vaswani asks if China should worry, Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff looks at the long-term chances of China becoming the global economic hegemon, and the Australian Financial Review offers a great summary of how the reciprocal tariff decisions came about. Speaking of China, its navy conducting a live-fire drill in the South China Sea. In timely fashion RAND has just published a new study on China’s approach to securing its economic and strategic interests abroad.

With Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping busy, another ‘strong man’ created a stir. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman explains in an interview with DW his motives for recognising Israel, and this New Yorker long-read portrayal of the prince tries to uncover his real ambitions for the Middle East. Wired offers a fascinating read on US Lieutenant General Paul Nakasone, soon to head the NSA and US Cyber Command. And in Politico, Lili Bayer discusses how Victor Orban in Hungary and Jarosław Kaczyński in Poland have used nationalism to guarantee electoral victories.

Further east, Kim Jong-un visited China for the first time since becoming North Korea’s leader in 2011. His talks with Xi focused on the security situation on the Korean peninsula. With momentum picking up for renewed nuclear negotiations, here’s a great timeline stretching back to 1985. Foreign Policy looks at how America needs a strategy now that North Korea and China are slowly rekindling their relationship. C. Lee Shea’s step-for-step guide in War on the Rocks for developing strategic approaches could be a first inspiration.

Suggests wouldn’t be Suggests without more on Trump: After he changed his mind several times, the BBC explains why Trump wants to withdraw troops from Syria, and why his commanders want to stay. Syria receives a lot of coverage, while other conflicts seem to have been forgotten: With sexual and ethnic violence at record highs, the Guardian’s Jason Burke reports that renewed violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s east has caused millions to flee. Yemen is another conflict with no end in sight, as Rachel Ansley writes for the Atlantic Council. And according to Balkan Insights, the potential for renewed conflict in Europe’s southeast is growing.

To avoid ending on a depressing note, here another pick: The Atlantic explores AI’s connection to sharks—fascinating.

Tech geek

Unidentified aircraft always generate interest, and two examples are making the news. Plane spotters have released photos of a mystery aircraft built by Northrop Grumman and designed for high-altitude surveillance. Also, Otto Aviation Group is working on a highly aerodynamic efficiency aircraft called the Celera 500L that might be intended to test exotic propulsion systems.

Meanwhile Virgin Galactic successfully tested the VSS Unity for the first time in supersonic, powered flight. The aircraft is a suborbital space plane designed for space tourism.

If you want an idea of what the future of Russian robotic war looks like, check out this comic by the US Army Cyber Institute. Set in 2027, Russian robot tanks are unleashed against NATO, supported by electronic warfare from autonomous drones and cyberattacks against NATO logistics. While Western liberal democracies anguish over ethical and legal aspects of lethal autonomous weapons, authoritarian states are moving swiftly to develop and exploit them.

With US–Russia tensions rising, see what it’s like working in the US Strategic Command nuclear command centre, and what would happen if war did break out.

A key debate occurring in the United States space policy community is whether to develop a Space Corps within USAF, or even a ‘US Space Force’ separate from the USAF. President Trump is supportive but the USAF is resisting such a move. Watch this space (pun intended) for more on this potentially important development.

Podcasts

Mojo News partnered with Monash Gender, Peace and Security and launched the Peace and Gender podcast. The first episode discusses underrepresentation of women and LGBT people in diplomacy. [14:55]

Brian Whitmore is bidding farewell: Listen to the last Power Vertical podcast for RFE/RL before Whitmore moves to the Center for European Policy Analysis, where he’ll continue to produce the podcast. Brian and Mark Galeotti discuss what we’ve learned about Russia since the podcast’s inauguration in 2011. [50:14]

Multimedia

The Calvert Journal’s photo series captures the hardship faced by young males living in Nagorno-Karabakh, wedged between Armenia and Azerbaijan and subject to a protracted conflict since 1994.

Meet the ‘bike pimper’ of Zaatari camp in Jordan and learn about the untapped entrepreneurial talent inside the fastest growing refugee camp worldwide. Courtesy of The Economist. [5:11]

Events

Brisbane, 6–8 April, in conjunction with the Commonwealth Games’ Festival 2018, ‘Women of the World Festival’. Program and tickets here.

Sydney, 11 April, 6–7.00 pm, University of Sydney and Sydney Ideas, ‘Beyond trafficking and modern slavery’. Info and registration here.

Melbourne, 12 April, 6–7.00 pm, University of Melbourne, ‘Australia, the two Koreas and Asian regional security’ with The Hon. Gareth Evans AC QC, former foreign minister and Chancellor of ANU. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have dominated headlines as the US president is poised to hit China with new trade penalties. A podcast by Brookings claims that these tariffs will backfire, harming US businesses and America’s overall economy. The US Department of Commerce, however, argues that they won’t, and will instead protect America’s national security.

Speaking of national security, after Rex Tillerson’s dismissal last week, and following months of tension in the White House, it was only a matter of time before National Security Adviser HR McMaster threw in the towel. Politico analyses what the future looks like for the former general.

Sticking with Trumpian scandals, it has been a scorcher of a week for Cambridge Analytica—the political consulting firm that worked on Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. The New York Times and the Guardian reported last week that the firm harvested 50 million Facebook profiles without authorisation in early 2014. The Guardian also provides the low-down on who’s who and how all the key players are linked.

There are three standout pieces chronicling the repercussions of the Iraq war 15 years on. The Atlantic and Salon discuss the lessons the US should have learned from the turmoil throughout the region. And Rolling Stone suggests why we should consider 2003 as the beginning of America’s decline.

According to a recent issue of National Geographic, an estimated 143 million people will be displaced by the effects of global warming by 2050 if mitigation measures aren’t adopted. Those most affected reside in Australia’s immediate region as rising sea levels swallow entire islands in the South Pacific. Defying the UN, New Zealand is creating the world’s first visa program aimed at those fleeing climate change–induced natural disasters. Should Australia follow suit?

And then there are those who flee because they’re persecuted, and because they’re in the middle of a war. Al Jazeera has compiled 100 portraits of Rohingya children. And Der Spiegel recounts bedtime stories told in refugee camps in Turkey and Greece. These beautifully illustrated short clips convey warmth and hope while confronting the bleak reality facing displaced children in the camps.

To follow on, new research from Carnegie discusses the future for Syria’s displaced people. Kheder Khaddour argues that there should be no political settlement in Syria without including refugee return in the terms. And a thoroughly interesting piece in The Atlantic explains how German government investigators separate opportunists from sincere asylum seekers.

Just two weeks before he died, Stephen Hawking submitted what was to be his final research paper. Co‑authored with Thomas Hertog, the paper looks at the theory of a ‘multiverse’—many, many universes. It even provides a method of discovering those universes. It also goes into some detail about how our universe will end as our stars run out of energy.

Coasting into tech geek, start-up Italian car manufacturer XEV has teamed up with Polymaker, a 3D printing company, to create the world’s first mass-produced electric car, which is set to cost the consumer less than US$10,000. With a top speed of only 70 kilometres per hour and a range of roughly 150 kilometres on a single charge, the car may not be ideal for traversing the Australian countryside. But for city folk, it could be hard to beat.

Tech geek

Both China and Russia are moving rapidly to deploy hypersonic missile systems. The commander of US Strategic Command, General John Hyten, recently told Congress that the US military has no defences against such weapons. But the US is set to respond with added funding and urgency to deploy hypersonic weapons of its own. The race for Mach 5 and above is definitely on.

It’s back to the future with particle beam weapons (PBWs) in space. The US last looked at PBWs in the 1990s as part of President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative (aka Star Wars). Now, space-based directed-energy weapons, including PBWs, look set to make a comeback according to Michael Griffin, US defence undersecretary of research and engineering.

There’s a fascinating short article and video on Northrop Grumman’s YF-23 Black Widow, which was the contender against Lockheed Martin’s YF-22 Raptor in a competition to be the US Air Force’s first stealth fighter.

Finally, a story that animal lovers shouldn’t read. In 1962 a bear called ‘Yogi’ got a wild ride aboard a B‑58 Hustler Mach 2 bomber when the poor thing was ejected at supersonic speed in an escape pod. He survived the experience, but later was put down for medical examination.

Podcasts

In Anatomy of Next’s latest episode, Michael Solana and guests discuss whether there might be life on Mars, or anywhere else in the universe. [39:05]

The ladies of Bombshell talk to Lindsey Ford from the Asia Society Policy Institute to discuss White House mayhem, including Tillerson, the US–North Korea presidential summit and ‘Kremlinology’. [30:00]

Videos

As the FBI continues its investigation into Russian meddling in the 2017 US presidential election, Al Jazeera’s Inside Story looks at the progress so far. [24:50]

Data scientist Christopher Wylie, the Cambridge Analytica whistleblower, is interviewed by the Guardian on his role in the saga. [13:00]

Deutsche Welle has a documentary on the history of Crimea. [42:25]

Events

Canberra, 26 March, 5.30–7.00 pm, Australian National University, Australia–USA Science and Technology Cooperation Panel Discussion, ‘Why this international partnership matters’. Register here.

Albury, New South Wales, 28 March, 9–1.30 pm, The Centre for Defence Industry Capability Seminars, ‘CDIC introduction to the Defence market’. More info and registration here.

Melbourne, 26 March, 4.30–6.30 pm, Monash University, ‘Women’s participation and recognition in sustainable agriculture livelihood in Sri Lanka’, keynote by Jacqui True followed by a panel discussion. Registration and information here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Starting with bleak news, the crises in Afrin and Eastern Ghouta show no signs of relenting as we enter the eighth year of the Syrian civil war. Al Jazeera looks at seven documentaries about the conflict, and this photo essay documents the fate of the more than 465,000 Syrians killed and the desperation of the millions displaced.

There’s never a dull day with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin around. After Theresa May directly accused the Kremlin of involvement in the Sergei Skripal case, Brookings discusses the foreign policy and national security implications for the West’s relations with Russia. But this CS Monitor piece questions the credibility of the allegations against Russia. And BuzzFeed has a fascinating story on Felix Sater—a recurrent figure in the protracted Trump-Russia scandals. This deep dive portrays Sater as a jack of all trades with fingers in many a pie, from the Russian mafia and North Korea to al-Qaeda. To round off, and in preparation for Russia’s presidential election this Sunday, the Financial Times looks at the new generation of (male) politicians that Putin has been grooming.

Trump remains the star of his own reality TV show, ‘The White House: making and breaking the public service since 2016’. After publicly criticising Russia’s role in the Skripal case, Rex Tillerson was fired by Trump (via Twitter). FP argues in two separate articles that his successor, former CIA boss Mike Pompeo, might be closer to the president, but his new job will be a challenge, while The Economist forecasts a miserable future for US foreign policy under Pompeo’s guidance.

A couple of unorthodox but very interesting pieces focussing on China. First, this War on the Rocks primer on intercultural communications for US military officers meeting Chinese counterparts is a great introduction to Chinese negotiation techniques. Second, Aeon discusses the growing practice among country girls who move to larger Chinese cities of becoming ernai—the ‘second woman’.

Nationalism and populism are increasing internationally, to the detriment of liberal democracy and globalism. Shadi Hamid offers an insightful analysis of Yascha Mounk’s new book, The people vs democracy, which argues that nationalism can be reclaimed by liberals using the rhetoric of patriotism.

Here are two complementary pieces on automation and AI. The MIT Technology Review hypothesises that machines will eventually outperform humans, but we’re not there just yet, while Jamie Bartlett predicts an age of ‘neo-luddism’ during the period of radical change that we’re experiencing in tech and machine learning.

Climate change and increased pollution are visibly destroying the planet. A short clip last week caused an outcry: a British diver filmed waves of plastic waste off Bali’s coast. How people in other regions deal with climate change—fostering sustainability and helping in the fight against fundamentalism—is explored in The Atlantic’s piece on octopuses in Zanzibar.

National Geographic confronts its racist and ‘exoticist’ past in its latest issue. It includes some shocking—yet unsurprising—revelations on how the magazine covered people of colour, looking specifically at the 1916 issue that featured Aboriginal people of Australia.

This week, one of humanity’s greatest geniuses, Stephen Hawking, began his own journey to the stars. The Guardian penned a reflective obituary, while Leonard Mlodinow wrote a heartening tribute about his collaboration with Hawking. The Canberra Times and Washington Post offer some of his most famous quotes.

Tech geek

President Trump flagged the prospect of a US Space Force. An earlier proposal floated in Congress for a ‘space corps’ was resisted by the USAF. Yet the US is gearing up for war in space. As was the case with airpower in the 20th century, new operational domains tend to lead to new organisations and new ideas.

There’s a great series of articles in CIMSEC on seabed warfare that looks at how mine warfare, unmanned underwater vehicles and seabed-emplaced systems might transform the undersea battlespace.

The F-35 JSF is in the news again—and there’s good news and bad news. The good news is that costs have stabilised … for the moment. The bad news is that Block 4 modernisation could drive costs up again because many of the Block 3 improvements have been pushed into Block 4.

Finally, a couple of interesting articles on hypersonics. Space systems will become vital to track hypersonic weapons, and US R&D into hypersonics is looking increasingly underfunded. This news comes in the face of a successful Russian test of its Kinzhal Mach 10 air-launched hypersonic weapon.

Videos

Far-right nationalism is present across the globe. Japan is no exception. This Al Jazeera documentary looks at the city of Kawasaki, where a large Korean population has been subjected to hate speech. [26:00]

BBC Newsnight reports on Poland’s identity crisis, and talks to proponents and opponents of the country’s populist Law and Justice Party. [13:00]

Podcasts

The New York Times’ Rukmini Callimachi has a new audio series called Caliphate in which she reports on Islamic State and the fall of Mosul. Subscribe here.

The latest episode of Arms Control Wonk discusses President Trump’s proposal to meet with Kim Jong-un. [29:00]

Events

Sydney, 19 March, 5–6.00 pm, The Education and Social Work Dean’s Lecture Series, ‘Australia’s response to asylum seekers and refugees: implications and challenges’, organised by The University of Sydney and Sydney Ideas. Register here.

Canberra, 20 March, 4–5.30 pm, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, ‘Myanmar and North Korea: divergent paths’. Details here.

Melbourne, 22 March, 5.30–7.00 pm, The University of Melbourne, ‘Can China really lead on climate change?’ More info and registration here.

Defence says no to WeChat

The Australian Defence Department has banned staff and serving personnel from downloading the Chinese social media and messaging app WeChat onto their work phones. ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre staff sat down today to discuss the development. Eds.

Are you surprised by this development?

Fergus Ryan: Frankly, I’m surprised the ban didn’t come sooner. While I can see why DFAT officials might want to use the app, I don’t see why Defence officials would need to. Given what we know about how closely WeChat works with the Chinese government, it seems prudent to ban it.

Danielle Cave: No, this isn’t surprising. Let’s keep in mind how limited this ban is: according to Australian media reports, they’ve banned staff from downloading and using WeChat on their work phones only. This ban goes nowhere near as far as India’s, for example, where the media has reported that the Indian government has requested that their defence personnel remove more than 42 Chinese apps from both their work and personal phones. It’ll be interesting to see if other departments, particularly DFAT, follow Defence’s lead.

Tom Uren: The default position is that work phones are provided with a limited range of apps. Essentially all apps are banned unless there’s a requirement to have them and they pass a security assessment.

What’s behind the ban? What’s Defence likely concerned about? Have they made the right call?

Tom: Both personnel and information security are the issues here. Many mobile messaging apps can access both the sensors and a large amount of information from a smartphone, including possibly the camera and microphone, contacts, photos, location and GPS info, Wifi networks accessed, etc. Some messaging apps are written so poorly that messages aren’t encrypted. This presents the risk that eavesdroppers may be able to snoop on Defence personnel. Poorly written apps could also provide another vector for hackers to attack and compromise a phone. In general, more apps mean more opportunities for hackers, so the default department position would be to restrict the number of apps installed.

Additionally, even entirely secure apps can collect large amounts of data. Defence may be concerned that data collected by WeChat may be made available to the Chinese government. Governments typically have mechanisms to access data from companies but we’re pretty comfortable with Western systems where warrants from independent judiciaries are required. I’ve written previously about the Chinese appetite for data and we are probably less comfortable with the independence of Chinese lawful access mechanisms.

Danielle: Defence has made the right call and I suspect others will follow, both in Australia and around the world. The Chinese government is increasingly investing in surveillance and censorship, and we know that messages within WeChat are monitored and censored. China’s new cybersecurity law requires all companies to store relevant data and WeChat’s own privacy policy is very broad. Amnesty International ranked the privacy and encryption of WeChat’s parent company Tencent very poorly, and Tencent also scored very poorly (20/100) in the New America think tank’s 2017 ranking of digital rights and corporate accountability. It’s not surprising that WeChat didn’t pass a security assessment.

Fergus: China’s new cybersecurity law requires all internet companies to store internet logs and relevant data for at least six months to assist law enforcement. WeChat’s own privacy policy notes that it may need to ‘retain, disclose and use’ user information in response to government requests. There’s also plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that Chinese authorities are using access to WeChat data to persecute dissidents and activists.

Regulators have been ramping up pressure on companies like Tencent and Sina Weibo to do more to control and suppress content it deems undesirable. Threats of significant fines are already prompting those companies to divert more resources towards that effort.

Does this ban show that Australia considers China a threat?

Tom: No. Other coverage in the media shows that Australia considers China a threat. :)

Fergus: Not necessarily. I think the recent Strava app case in which its heat map revealed details of military bases around the globe was probably a wake-up call for many officials working in sensitive areas, prompting them to take a fresh look at tightening up the use of all apps, regardless of where they’re from. Having said that, it’s important to note that this latest decision has been made in the context of growing concerns about Chinese espionage activities and worries that the use of Chinese technology—such as using Huawei to build a 5G network—may create security vulnerabilities for Australia in the future.

Danielle: No, I think it shows that the Australian Department of Defence is taking cybersecurity seriously. To flip the situation, the Chinese government is incredibly strict about what social messaging apps they allow their population use, let alone their defence personnel! Most are banned anyway, but I highly doubt that officers in the PLA would be allowed to download non-Chinese–made social apps on their official work phones.

How is the Chinese media reacting? How are people responding to the story on Chinese social media platforms?

Fergus: The Global Times published a pick-up of the story less than 24 hours after the Australian Financial Review broke the story. The summary leaves out much of the context around the Defence Department’s decision. It does, however, make clear that the ban happened in the context of growing concerns over Chinese espionage activities and a growing national security backlash against Chinese foreign investment.

This story has been shared on the Global Times official Weibo account. Although comments are likely not representative–they must be approved by editors and at the time of writing only seven comments of 202 were visible–the most popular highlight the hypocrisy of Australia, which is part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Other comments frame the decision as a gross overreaction to a non-issue.

Should this ban apply to all Australian officials posted to China?

Fergus: WeChat is so pervasive in China that not being on it isn’t really an option if you want to take part in society. For diplomats, it’s an extremely useful tool for making and maintaining connections and for organising events. Officials would need to take into account the benefit they could get out of the app when weighing up whether to use it or not.

Danielle: No, it would be difficult to do your job in China—whether you are a Defence attache, a diplomat or an Austrade official—without WeChat. China isn’t unusual in that sense: messaging app KakaoTalk is vital in South Korea, as is LINE in Japan and Taiwan. For a lot of Asia, messaging apps replaced email long ago. What will be important now is that there are very clear and enforceable guidelines about what apps are and aren’t appropriate to use on a work phone so that all officials, across both the policy and national security community, are well aware of the guidelines.

How should other government departments react to this and approach similar issues in the future?

Tom: It’s up to each organisation to understand the risks and benefits and make their own call about apps based on their needs and risk profile. ASD has information on the risks of using mobile devices and about how to protect data on smartphones (the IOS hardening guide and the Information Security Manual).

Danielle: I agree, but departments also can’t wait for media enquiries or a story to break before tackling an issue (like the Strava heatmap debacle). It’s worrying that new threats always seem to catch government departments on the back foot. In part, I think this is because there’s a tendency in Canberra to view ‘cyber’ through a very traditional prism that focusses on the types of threats that we see week to week (for example, data theft). If we absorb one lesson from Russia’s cyber interference in the US election, it should be that continuing to view cyber threats through a narrow prism is a mistake. It’s vital that the government break out of this reactionary cycle and take a more forward-looking and assertive stance on the less traditional suite of cyber threats that might affect Australia and our near region.

Fergus: A top priority should be for government MPs to be given clarity on whether they should be using WeChat on their own phones—something which has yet to happen. Information stored on the phones of our elected representatives would surely be highly prized by foreign governments, so we should be thinking about how we can plug any security holes on their devices as a priority.

ASPI Suggests

It’s women all the way in this week’s Suggests. First we bring you the matriarch of 24-hour news Christiane Amanpour speaking to former CIA analyst Jung Pak, who explains why recent announcements by Kim Jong-un about engaging in talks with South Korea and the US should be treated with care. The Economist similarly sounds a note of caution.

European politics remain troubling. After a tense six months, Angela Merkel breathed a sigh of relief after securing her fourth term as Chancellor. In Italy, after championing a stellar digital campaign, Beppe Grillo’s populist Five Star Movement topped the voting in last week’s election. Carnegie explains how German and Italian politics affect broader European strategic issues, and The Atlantic offers a tight analysis of Italy’s polarised political environment. An interesting piece from the New York Review of Books discusses collective memory and identity in Poland in light of the controversial law that was passed, which criminalises accusations of Polish complicity in the Holocaust.

Moving on to some excellent pieces about global migration challenges. Politico examines the contentious court case against a Syrian man convicted and jailed for terrorism in Hungary, emblematic of Viktor Orbán’s well-known anti-migrant agenda. A long feature in Der Spiegel illustrates the struggles and hopes of child refugees in Germany over the past two years. To accompany that, a special feature from Reuters visually tells the tales of hardship of travellers fleeing Venezuela towards Chile.

The New York Times discusses Gary Cohn’s resignation as President Trump’s economic advisor. His exit was provoked by Trump’s announcements on steel and trade tariffs, which two Vox articles look at from different perspectives—here and here. The BBC explains the EU’s reaction, featuring a short clip with Cecilia Malmström, EU Commissioner for Trade, while Foreign Affairs explains how a trade war and collapse of the WTO would impact developing countries.

It’s been a thorny week for spooks. The New Yorker has a long, in-depth exposé on former British spy Christopher Steele, the man behind the Russia-Trump dossier that triggered the Muller investigation. If that challenges your attention span, watch this short CNN interview with the author. Meanwhile, (unverified) claims have surfaced that Steele allegedly had links to the Russian double agent, Sergei Skripal who was poisoned with an undisclosed nerve agent in the UK last weekend. Watch this space.

Although #Metoo may not be making headlines anymore, the movement remains relevant and important to women across the world. Russia’s independent media outlet Meduza has analysed the legal recourse available to women who have made sexual harassment claims, while Vanity Fair discusses why the movement has gained far less traction in the finance industry than within the arts or politics.

For those interested in terrorism and violent extremism, ETH Zurich’s Center for Security Studies has just released a new research paper concentrating on the returning foreign fighter threat across North Africa. Additionally, The UN’s Counter Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate has also released its first research digest (featuring both men and women) of top reads on related foreign fighter challenges.

The New York Time’s obituaries have been ‘dominated by white men’. To partially address the imbalance, this week it published obituaries for 15 remarkable women. And here’s a piece by the World Economic Forum on five women who have made history in their own way.

Tech Geek

In celebration of International Women’s Day, we’re highlighting the valuable work that women do in what traditionally in the past has been a male dominated arena of defence technology.

Probably one of the most innovative projects is occurring right here in Australia. Fleet Space, led by CEO Flavia Tata Nardini, is building a space-based information ‘backplane based around hundreds of nanosatellites to connect billions of terrestrial devices in the ‘internet of things’. It’s essentially a digital nervous system for the planet—in space.

The influential CEO of Lockheed Martin, Marillyn Hewson, is playing a key role in shaping America’s future role in space as it relates to national security and maintaining US commercial lead in orbit.

Going back a few years, the first woman to become a US Navy Admiral, ADM Grace Murray Hopper, was also a leader in computing. Here are some lessons from the Navy’s ‘queen of code’ that resonate today for women following in her footsteps.

Female fighter pilots are now commonplace, but it didn’t use to be that way. Lt Col. Christine Mau (USAF) was the first female pilot to fly the F-35. Here’s an interesting article on her experiences. China has female fighter pilots in its air force, and Australia is gradually catching up as well.

Not quite ‘defence’ (we hope), but here’s a list of the key women involved in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI) in 2016. Jill Tarter in particular is notable for her achievements, as well as being the inspiration for Elle Arroway in Carl Sagan’s novel 1985 novel Contact.

Videos

‘Conectifai’ – Cuban director Zoe Garcia captures how people have learnt to use technology in a public hotspot in Havana for The Guardian. [10:36] 

Should trans women be allowed to use women-only services? The BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire discusses trans-rights in the UK [15:19]

Podcasts

In this CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power podcast episode, Afghanistan’s deputy foreign minister for economic cooperation, Adela Raz, and deputy minister for policy in the ministry of finance, Naheed Sarabi, talk about security challenges, opportunities and reform efforts, and the role of women in their country, including their own experiences and career paths. [28:58]

The latest episode of Bombshell (from the folks over at War on the Rocks) discusses military strategy, the Syrian civil war, Russian nukes and more. If you want to skip the social and pop culture references, start listening at 04:42. [30:00]

Events

 Canberra, 13 March, 6-7 pm, ANU National Security College: ‘Japan’s evolving security role in the Indo-Pacific’. Info here.

Canberra, 14 March, 1-5 pm, Department of the Prime Minister & Cabinet: ‘Open Government Australia national action plan consultation’. More info and also other locations here.

Canberra, 14 March 2018, 5:30-7:30: How big is the problem of violence against women? Professor Sally Engle Merry from NYU speaks at the ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific. Details here.

ASPI suggests

The world

A great paradox of Xi Jinping’s leadership emerged over the past week: while attempting to present China as a modern state with racing economic growth, his new constitutional reforms point towards a more inward looking, authoritarian model that preserves his leadership. Brookings and The Economist have two very informative pieces on the implications of this change.

In Africa, President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) clings to power, and downplays the repression and violence routinely administered at the hands of his regime. Here are six possibilities for the DRC’s future.

Meanwhile, the small nation of Djibouti is flexing its muscles as it becomes aware of its strategic importance to the big players in the world. A good piece from German weekly Der Spiegel earlier this month highlighted Chinese strategic interest in the country.

On Thursday, President Vladimir Putin gave his long-awaited state of  the nation address. While he focused on the upcoming elections and domestic challenges, international analysis fixated on Russian foreign policy and international interference. Foreign Affairs discusses Russian mercenaries in Syria, and  this piece in The Diplomat explores Russia’s international oil game with Saudi Arabia, China and India. The Economist features a briefing on Russian disinformation, while Anne Applebaum and BuzzFeed News argue that it’s not Russian bots undermining American and European democracy, but conspiracy theories based in the US. Make of that what you will.

Ahead of another major Brexit speech, Theresa May discussed the Northern Ireland border issue with Donald Tusk, president of the European Council. Aside from the trade and economic implications of a hard border, there are also significant political and national security concerns. Two ICSR reports are worth reading on this: the first warns that a hard Brexit would be a gift to organised crime and paramilitaries in Northern Ireland; the second explores the crime–terror nexus in Italy and Malta. A new RUSI report discusses five areas where Brexit will affect European security.

The threat of far-right extremism is increasing. The UK’s head of counterterrorism at the Metropolitan police revealed that the organisation had thwarted four right-wing extremist plots in 2017. This Twitter thread provides insightful analysis of the actions and recruitment by National Action, a proscribed far-right terrorist group. Defense One discusses the national security implications of not paying enough attention to the far right.

The New York Review of Books meticulously analyses a new book on Gibraltar and World War II, observing that for all its alleged impregnability, Gibraltar survived the war ‘for the simple reason that it was never seriously attacked’. Over in The Atlantic, read Henry C. Wolfe’s prescient account of German intentions well before World War II—taken from the 1937 issue!

An interview with the editor of Parameters, the US Army War College’s quarterly journal, discusses the best books on military strategy, including those by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu. Complementing the interview nicely, this Strategy Bridge podcast evaluates the influence of culture and politics on Clausewitz.

Tech geek

We have a decided focus on air power in this week’s tech geek. The US Air Force has decided to spend around US$10 billion over the next five years to accelerate its ‘next-generation air dominance’ capability, which will likely replace the F-22 and maybe the F-35 sooner than anticipated. This decision to move more quickly to the next-generation fighter is driven by growing concern over China’s rapid military modernisation.

China has produced radical new designs for future hypersonic aircraft that are said to solve some key aerodynamic challenges of hypersonic flight. With the Chinese already planning a next-generation bomber, any alleged breakthrough could transform future air combat. It could also disrupt US planning for its future bomber capability, which is based around the subsonic but stealthy B-21 Raider.

Former Australian Army General Jim Molan has been highly critical of the RAAF’s F-35 during Senate Estimates, noting that they may confront Russian-built Su-35S fighters (which China is buying and which Indonesia might buy). He argued that the Russian jets had a superior ceiling (maximum altitude) and that their ‘super cruise’ ability makes them faster than the F-35, though he ignored the F-35’s stealth advantage and likely superior situational awareness. Certainly, the motto ‘First look, first shot, first kill’ may win out on the day, but only if we can protect our vital information systems. It’s more complex than speed and altitude.

Multimedia

WION interviews Helen Clark, former New Zealand prime minister and former head of UNDP, for its Global Leadership Series. She talks about a variety of topics: the film made about her, the world’s power structure and glass ceilings, India’s role in the world, as well as global security challenges. Oh, and she has some comments on Bollywood. [28:47]

BBC Newsnight looks at Northern Ireland. It remains under the thumb of social conservatism and the power of religion, but in some parts of society minds are changing. [7:32]

Check out this photo series in The Atlantic for some amazing visuals from Tunisia’s Djebel Dahar region, where the local community has lived underground for centuries.

Podcasts

The Diplomat’s podcast Asia Geopolitics discusses the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. Recent developments, Rodrigo Duterte’s rebalancing of the Philippines between the US and China, China’s artificial islands, and UK interests in the region and in freedom of navigation are all touched upon. [25:48]

The Atlantic interviews Caitlin Flanagan about toxic masculinity and toxic femininity in the age of #metoo. [34:41]

The latest episode of The Dead Prussian discusses the veteran community and the effects that commemoration have on veterans, but also how important this practice is in helping shape a national understanding about war. [30:00]

Events

Canberra, 7 March, 12.30–2.30 pm, ‘In conversation with the Honourable John Howard OM, AC’. Hosted by the National Museum of Australia in association with the UNSW Canberra Public Leadership Research Group and the Howard Library. Tickets here.

Canberra, 7 March, 4.30–6.00 pm, ANU Centre for European Studies, ‘Panel discussion: Understanding geographical indications’. Register here.

Brisbane, 8 March, 4–5.00 pm, UQ’s Centre for Policy Futures, ‘Global strategic trends’. More info here.