Tag Archive for: General

National security wrap

The beat

Compromised cases

The Massachusetts Supreme Court has dismissed thousands of drug convictions because of misconduct by a state chemist and two assistant attorneys-general. In 2014, Sonja Farak, a chemist at the Massachusetts State Crime Laboratory, was convicted of stealing and using the lab’s drugs. The involvement of the two assistant attorneys-general who withheld evidence about Farak’s offences was revealed in November 2017. At least 12,000 cases involving evidence processed at the lab between January 2009 and January 2013 could be affected. It’s not the first time; more than 7,500 cases tied to Farak were dismissed in April.

Criminalising homelessness

An amendment to Hungary’s constitution banning ‘habitual residence in a public place’ took effect on Monday, after previous government attempts to criminalise sleeping in public failed. Critics doubt the government’s claim that current services are sufficient to alleviate homelessness. Social workers and NGOs working with homeless people are concerned that the policy will make them complicit in punishing people who are sleeping on the street. In September, the European Parliament voted to launch legal action against the Hungarian government for breaching the EU’s core values.

Who’s top dog?

It’s Australia versus New Zealand in the Australasian Police Dog Championships with the New Zealand ‘Paw Blacks’ keen to defend their title against various Australian teams. The event will test patrol dog, narcotics detector and explosives detector teams over four days and aims to set benchmarks alongside friendly competition. Top dog will be announced tonight!

CT scan

Strengthening counterterrorism in the Balkans

US counterterrorism coordinator Nathan Sales is visiting the Balkans to discuss ‘counterterrorism cooperation, combatting terrorist travel, the prosecution of terrorists, and border security’. The US continues to see the Balkan states as vital counterterrorism partners. However, as we’ve noted before, the State Department’s country reports found that Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania and Kosovo lack adequate resources and experience in counterterrorism measures.

9/11 ‘Hamburg cell’ member deported

Germany has deported Mounir el Motassadeq, who was a member of the ‘Hamburg cell’ that was involved in the 9/11 terrorist attacks, to Morocco. El Motassadeq was convicted in 2006 of being an accessory to mass murder for his role in managing the finances of members of the cell. He was released on Monday after spending almost 15 years in jail.

IS takes families hostage in Syria

It’s believed that the so-called Islamic State abducted around 250 civilians including 90 women and children from the al-Bahra displacement camp near the eastern Syrian town of Hajin. IS fighters launched the attack to prevent the Syrian Democratic Forces from advancing. Meanwhile, the US-backed offensive to recapture territory was hampered by fierce sandstorms.

Checkpoint

Iranians kidnapped on Pakistani border

Fourteen Iranian security personnel have reportedly been abducted along the country’s border with Pakistan. Jaish al-Adl, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, has claimed responsibility, according to Al-Jazeera. Iranian state-owned media said the forces were part of a security operation involving members of the elite Revolutionary Guard. Iran’s foreign ministry has called on Pakistan to ‘implement all necessary means and measures to free [the personnel]’.

Positive signs on the Korean peninsula

The United Nations Command met with North and South Korea for the first time on Tuesday to discuss demilitarising the border. The talks are in line with other recent reconciliation measures, such as land-mine removal and an agreement to reconnect rail networks. Also on Tuesday, North Korea released a South Korean man who illegally crossed the border last month.

An end in sight?

Jordan and Syria reopened a border crossing on Monday—a possible sign the Syrian civil war is winding down. The crossing had been a crucial commercial corridor linking Jordan and Israeli-occupied territory to other Arab states until its closure in in early 2015 due to rebel occupation. The Assad regime took back the area in July under a Moscow-brokered deal with rebel forces.

First responder

Zambia getting ready for Ebola

Zambia has launched an initiative to train health workers on preventing, recognising and treating an Ebola outbreak. According to the World Health Organization, as of early October, 106 people had died in the ongoing Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As a neighbouring state, Zambia is concerned the virus will spread across its borders, necessitating a rapid response.

Using mosquitoes to beat mosquito-borne viruses

The World Mosquito Program is leading a preventive initiative aimed at controlling the spread of the dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses in the South Pacific. The program uses Wolbachia, naturally occurring bacteria that are safe for animals and the environment but inhibit the ability of mosquitoes to transmit diseases to humans. Mosquitoes infected with the bacteria breed with wild mosquitoes, passing on the bacteria. The program has reported initial successes in Vanuatu, Kiribati and Fiji.

Florida Georgia (power) Line

NASA maps show extensive power outages in Florida and Georgia due to Hurricane Michael. While power has been restored to the majority of the 2.6 million households and businesses cut off in the storm, it may take weeks or months for electricity to be fully restored. Powerlines could be buried to prevent wind damage and stop such large power failures in future, but that’s a costly measure and flooding could create other problems. It took 11 months to fully restore Puerto Rico’s power supply after Hurricane Maria last year.

The five-domains update

Sea state

A Moroccan navy ship fired at a migrant boat headed to Spain, injuring one person on board. The incident occurred as the boat allegedly performed hostile manoeuvres and attempted to collide with the navy ship. Morocco has seen an increase in illegal emigration—over a single weekend, the Moroccan navy and Spanish coast guard had to rescue 1,800 migrants.

US aircraft have landed on HMS Queen Elizabeth in another successful flight trial. The MH-53E Sea Dragon, the largest helicopter in the US Navy, and the MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor landed as part of ongoing flight trials for the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carrier which is on track to be deployed in 2021.

The Indian navy joined the club of countries with deep submarine rescue capabilities after it acquired a deep submergence rescue vehicle. Although the multipurpose deep-sea vehicles are deployed for search-and-rescue missions, they’re also used to lay cables on the seabed.

Flight path

F-35 fighters around the world, including Australia’s fleet, were grounded last week while fuel tubes are inspected after a US Marine Corps F-35B crashed on 29 September. The faulty tubes are estimated to affect more than 250 US jets and 100 from other countries. Some jets, including those in the Italian and Israeli air forces, have been cleared to return to service. The UK paused only some F-35 operations.

A US$30 million Belgian F-16 has been accidentally destroyed by a technician. The mechanic was working on another F-16 in the hangar when he accidentally set off a Vulcan cannon, hitting the plane that had been prepared for an afternoon sortie. See photos here.

Hurricane Michael has damaged an unknown number of F-22 Raptors hangared at US Air Base Tyndall in Florida. While the majority of the Tyndall-based Raptors were able to fly to shelter in Ohio, as many as 22 jets may have been grounded for maintenance and repair. At any given time, only 49% of the F-22 fleet is mission-ready, according to recent assessments. The destruction of any jets is costly, but in the case of the F-22, there are only 187 jets in existence and each costs US$339 million.

Rapid fire

Australia may help Papua New Guinea in its efforts to help rebuild its defence force through restructuring and training. Australia’s nearest neighbour plans to more than double its troop numbers to 10,000 and expand its defence force into separate army, navy and air force branches from 2025. Discussions about the creation of a joint PNG–Australian naval base on Manus Island are ongoing.

The US has announced limits on the sharing of civilian nuclear technology with China, reiterating its accusations of Chinese theft of American technology and intellectual property for military use. The New York Times reports that US officials are concerned that China is planning to develop floating nuclear reactors for use in the South China Sea.

Taiwan will boost its national defence budget in response to an increasing threat from the China. The country’s defence ministry has earmarked US$11 billion to be used for buying more weapons and promoting the construction of indigenous weapons. The spending increase comes after the US announced a US$1.42 billion deal to sell support for early warning radar, missiles, missile components and torpedoes to Taiwan.

Zero gravity

The only shuttle service between earth and the International Space Station has been grounded indefinitely. A Soyuz rocket carrying a NASA astronaut and Russian cosmonaut failed mid-launch last Thursday. While the ISS crew can return to earth via a docked Soyuz before January, when its shelf-life expires, the launch failure raises questions about how long the ISS can remain unmanned and increases pressure on the US and its commercial partners to deliver an alternative. Russia’s space agency is investigating the failure and has reportedly launched a criminal investigation.

China’s space ambitions and growing capabilities present a formidable challenge to US space supremacy and the dynamics of astropolitics. Yesterday, China successfully launched two satellites as part of the BeiDou satellite navigation system, a strategic competitor to the American GPS. There are concerns, however, that China will seek to manipulate dispute settlement forums and to trade access to space for territorial or political acquiescence as it attempts to establish a ‘space Silk Road’.

Canadian mining and robotics company Deltion Innovations has partnered with American space transport company Moon Express to collaborate on lunar mining activities. The companies will provide equipment and transport for both public and private operations engaged in the emerging space-mining market. Deltion is a contractor for NASA and the Canadian Space Agency. Moon Express is also a Canadian Space Agency partner and was the first private company to be granted permission by the US government to travel beyond the earth’s orbit.

Wired watchtower

The UK government is planning to establish a new code of conduct in a bid to curb the growing security threat posed by compromised ‘internet of things’ smart devices. The new guidelines will target easy-to-guess default passwords and off-the-shelf devices with weak security settings that are easy for hackers to crack. The new rules are a response to increasing attacks on the UK by criminals and state-sponsored hacking groups.

In an interview on Sunday, Dutch Defence Minister Ank Bijleveld acknowledged that the Netherlands and Russia are engaged in a cyberwar. Two weeks ago, Dutch authorities revealed they had foiled a Russian cyberattack on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in April. The minister explained in the interview that her government decided to reveal the incident to combat ‘naivety’ about attempts to influence democracy in the Netherlands.

A cyberattack on a commercial vendor linked to the US Defense Department has compromised the personal information, credit card data and travel records of approximately 30,000 military and civilian personnel. The announcement of the breach comes on the heels of a report released last Tuesday which concluded that military weapons programs are vulnerable to cyberattacks and US federal infrastructure is ill-equipped to protect against them.

ASPI suggests

The world

Saudi journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi vanished while visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and is thought to have been killed on the premises. The Independent has the details and the Guardian provides insight on the potential Saudi hit squad. Carnegie interviewed Human Rights Watch’s Adam Coogle on the disappearance and what message the murder of a journalist at the hands of Saudi authorities would send. This Straits Times piece looks at the effect on the White House and the BBC published an off-air conversation with Khashoggi, recorded three days before he vanished, on the likelihood of his return to Saudi Arabia.

Two similar stories made headlines this week. Vox sheds light on the murky development around the former head of Interpol, Meng Hongwei, who went missing before China announced he was under investigation for corruption. And the Daily Beast reports on the rape and murder of Bulgarian journalist Victoria Marinova, who investigated the misuse of EU funds. She is the fourth journalist killed in Europe in the last 14 months.

The IPCC released a report on the potential impacts of and ways to mitigate a rise in global temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The New York Times outlines the report’s main themes and criticises US President Donald Trump’s position on climate change, and Vox provides 10 very achievable ways to reduce carbon emissions.

The world is heating up in more ways than one as tensions between global powers threaten arms control treaties. Defense One highlights the arms control community’s ‘deafening silence’ since Russia deployed its new intermediate-range, nuclear-capable cruise missile in Europe. On the cyber front, MIT Technology Review brings to light the lack of a cyber arms treaty. But it’s not all bad: Amnesty International introduces us to three women campaigning for better arms control and War on the Rocks discusses the effectiveness of those treaties over 50 years. Finally, a Strategist piece outlines how advances in technology mean a ban on megaton-yield nuclear weapons might be easier to achieve.

The National Interest claims the international community was never prepared to seek to end the conflict in Syria despite the atrocities committed there. Though the spotlight is on Idlib due to the creation of a demilitarised zone, Foreign Policy in Focus looks at two other fronts: the US presence in Syria’s east, and the confrontation between Iran and Israel. Foreign Affairs looks at how Bashar al-Assad was able to hijack the vast majority of international aid sent to his country.

The Institute of Modern Russia’s latest report explores the Kremlin’s ties to think tanks and universities across Russia, Europe and the US and how it drives its information warfare campaigns. Foreign Brief examines the consequences of Mongolia’s participation in Russia’s Vostok 18 exercise and its perilous position between Russia and China.

The German Marshall Fund of the United States and Visegrad Insight have collaborated to produce a report with five scenarios for the future of Central Europe at a time of growing illiberalism and nationalism. Meanwhile, this Economist piece highlights why the Baltic states in particular worry about the current US attitude to European security, while Politico reports that Poland has gone all-in on Trump. We also recommend this in-depth read on the challenges facing democracy in The New York Review of Books that explores the similarities between inter-war Europe and today’s US.

For this New York Times feature, Australian photojournalist Andrew Quilty spent time with US special forces, who are fighting with their Afghan counterparts against an Islamic State affiliate, capturing their everyday life and mission in photos and print. On that note, see how IS plans to dive underground, make money and return in force once the US has withdrawn from the Middle East in Foreign Policy.

Tech geek

Researchers have found that no one can escape the trend in consumer-available DNA mapping. An article published in Science found that, due to widespread use of consumer DNA kits, researchers could gain the genetic profiles of more than 60% of Americans who had never engaged in DNA profiling themselves.

The Chinese government is funding academic research into gene editing and brain-computer interfaces that seeks to allow human brains to directly interact with hardware. If successful, it would take China one step closer to being able to ‘enhance human capabilities for battlefield perception and decision-making’, ASPI International Cyber Policy Centre Fellow Elsa Kania told Defense One.

With this dystopian future in mind, Boston Dynamics has released a video of its latest humanoid robot ‘Atlas’ doing parkour. Tech Geek, for one, welcomes our new robot overlords.

Finally, with the threat of a Terminator-like future approaching, Northrop Grumman has unveiled its latest anti-radiation missile designs at the US Army conference and expo, which is underway in Washington DC. The system follows the increasingly popular trend of packaging weapons systems into a standard shipping container, meaning it can be easily transported and placed almost anywhere.

This week in history

This week in 2001, American forces responding to the September 11 attacks began bombing Taliban forces in Afghanistan in what has since become the longest war in US (and Australian) history. See this timeline of major events in the conflict and this moving photo series (warning: graphic content).

Multimedia

The devastating impact of Hurricane Michael, which crossed the Florida coast as a category 4 storm, is captured in this Atlantic photo series.

The BBC investigates whether it’s too late for us to reduce our carbon footprint and save ourselves from further environmental degradation. [15:20]

This DW documentary revisits the Cold War and the Gorbachev era, interviewing several international politicians and advisers from that time who discuss the relationship between the world powers and the threat of nuclear war. [42:25]

Podcasts

ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money’s sixth episode covers a broad spectrum of topics: epidemics, the departure of Nikki Haley, the attribution of cyberattacks and the Nobel Peace Prize. [40:56]

The Foreign Desk hosts a number of experts to discuss Iraq’s future after the new government was agreed on. [34:22]

Defence Connect interviews the Australian Space Agency’s Karl Rodrigues on the future of Australia’s involvement in space and the space economy. It’s out of this world! [35:06]

Events

Canberra, 17 October, 2–4.30 pm, National Museum of Australia: ‘Global security through nuclear weapons?’ Register here.

Sydney, 18 October, 6–7.30 pm, United States Studies Centre: ‘Women in foreign policy’. Tickets here.

Sydney, 19 October, 12–2 pm, UNSW Science: ‘Policy, politics and research with Professor Paul Cairney’. More info here.

ASPI suggests

The world

In the US, all eyes were on the hearings on sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. The BBC provides a quick overview of the case. The New Yorker explains why the FBI investigation has been criticised for overlooking several testimonies. Two very different pieces in The Atlantic throw more light on the story: Emily Yoffe advocates listening to both the victim and the accused, and not jumping to conclusions; and an acquaintance of Kavanaugh’s, Benjamin Wittes, explains why he wouldn’t confirm him. Also revisit this older New York Times op-ed for a scientific explanation of why some memories, including sexual assault, stick with us forever.

China has been causing consternation this week after PLAN and US warships nearly collided in the South China Sea. War on the Rocks talks about why global powers need strong maritime strategies and, as water covers 71% of the earth’s surface, it’s easy to ‘sea’ why. Business Insider examines the escalating tensions in the South China Sea and how the Philippines is reacting.

As President Xi Jinping’s campaign to reunify China continues, Foreign Brief claims that Taiwan’s days of independence are limited, while War on the Rocks argues that Taiwan’s new defence plan will enable it to retain its independence. Who knows? In the end, it may be the Pope who decides the outcome …

Lawfare seems to think China might attempt to meddle in the upcoming US elections, although it points out the differences between influence attempts by China and Russia. Foreign Policy, on the other hand, asserts there’s little to support the White House’s claims. Apparently nowhere is free from Chinese cyberattacks, as nations throughout the Asia–Pacific strengthen their cyber capabilities. On a different note, here’s the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists on bribery and corruption in China’s branch of German company Siemens, which fits nicely with The Economist’s piece on general, growing Chinese influence in Europe.

Put some time aside for this The New Republic long read on the changing approach to jihadism in France. The article focuses on the court case of Abdelkader Merah, a Franco-Algerian man. Merah was accused of radicalising and being an accomplice to his brother, who killed several people in 2012.

The Wall Street Journal believes the deal on a demilitarised zone around Idlib could be threatened. After the vetoing of 12 UN Security Council resolutions focused on the Syrian civil war, The Conversation describes how Russia enabled the continuation of violence in the nation, while The National sees dissent among the ranks of Assad’s followers.

The Calvert Journal has a fascinating read on how Diloram Ibrahimova, editor of BBC News Uzbek, reports for the Uzbek minority of Afghanistan, acknowledging differing cultural and socioeconomic factors between communities. The majority of her features and reporting focus on Uzbek women in Afghanistan.

And lastly, The Guardian reviews the adaption to animated film of Another Day in Life, in which Ryszard Kapuściński reflects on his experiences as a Polish Press Agency reporter in 1975 during the Cold War proxy war in Angola.

Tech geek

The latest US nuclear bomb, the B61-12, has completed its final design review, enabling it to go into production as of March 2020. The new bomb is designed for precision attack, and has ‘dial-a-yield’ from 50 kilotons down to 0.3 kilotons (300 tons TNT equivalent)—that’s 50 times less powerful than the Little Boy bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the University of Plymouth in the UK are now researching ‘quantized inertia’ (QI), which is considered fringe physics in many quarters. The idea seeks to explain how galaxies rotate without dark matter, but could potentially be applied to create space propulsion without fuel—a holy grail for space travel.

The future of army aviation is taking shape in a contest between Sikorsky/Boeing and Bell as part of the US Army’s ‘Future Vertical Lift’ program. The team of Sikorsky/Boeing is claiming that its SB>1 Defiant compound helicopter design will be much more manoeuvrable, if a little slower, than Bell’s V-280 tilt rotor design. This program could one day lead to the Australian Army acquiring new types of army aviation—so it’s important to watch.

There’s a lot of talk about how AI and robots will affect our future, but transhumanism is another area that could lead to very significant change, not only in our day-to-day lives, but also in military affairs. There’s a good article on ‘humans 2.0’—merging humans and machines—in Forbes.

Finally, Russia has begun flying MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors carrying what looks suspiciously like an air-launched anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, which would sharpen tensions over the prospect for war in space.

This week in history

Sputnik 1, the first man-made object in space, was launched on 4 October 1957, escalating the already tense relations between the US and the USSR. See this BBC television clip for the quick story behind the launch and its aftermath.

Multimedia

This RFE/RL photo series shows the ruins of Stalin’s failed ‘Transpolar Mainline’ gulag project in the no-man’s land of Russia’s north.

Jump into history with National Geographic on American Cold War–era nuclear-weapon sites and accompanying photos.

The devastating aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami that hit the Indonesian island of Sulawesi is captured in these before-and-after images by Time and the Economic Times.

The head of United Nations Peacekeeping, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, talks about the role of peacekeeping and the essentialness of women’s contributions. [6:59]

Podcasts

Get the latest on the bilateral relations between China and the US with China in the World, which dives into the trade war and the US Indo-Pacific strategy. [33:57]

CSIS discusses the challenges associated with the key institutions and norms that govern nuclear weapons on a global scale. [27:25]

Did Trump and Kim ‘fall in love’? Pod Save the World analyses some hopeful signs of progress on the Korean peninsula, Iran’s nuclear program and tensions with China. [36:21]

Events

Melbourne, 8 October, 6–8 pm, University of Melbourne: In the name of security: secrecy, surveillance and journalism book launch. Information here.

Canberra, 9 October, 5.30–7.30 pm, 50/50 By 2030 Foundation and DFAT: ‘The cost of gender inequality and global sexism: the World Bank’s Dr Caren Grown in conversation with Virginia Haussegger’. Register here.

Canberra, 11–12 October, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific: ‘2018 Malaysia update—regime change in Malaysia: how, why and the future’. Free registration.

ASPI suggests

The world

US President Donald Trump received an unexpected response during his address to the UN General Assembly: laughter. A more serious reaction in the Daily Beast dissects Trump’s rhetoric. Politico summarises the reactions of world leaders to the American president’s remarks, with Euronews providing a direct comparison between Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron’s speeches. Revisit The National to remember some momentous speeches given at the UN, including Fidel Castro’s record 269-minute discourse. Meanwhile, Andrew Rettman has some analysis on the EU Observer on the EU bonding with China and Russia against the US over Iran. That example of ‘diminishing US influence’ is also being discussed in the Washington Post.

Sue Halpern writes in the New York Review of Books about the future of privacy in a world of ever-increasing surveillance technology. She examines changing attitudes to privacy from the early heady days of the World Wide Web when users found it liberating to bypass traditional information gatekeepers to today when two-thirds of Americans want tighter privacy laws. However, the explosion of big data is also providing significant opportunities for investigative journalism: Bellingcat’s meticulous investigation into Russian passport data revealed that the suspects in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the UK are indeed likely GRU officers, with the latest coup revealing one of the pair’s identity.

Distance is becoming a greater issue for Chinese force projection. War on the Rocks has analysed China’s need to secure access to airfields and naval bases throughout the Indian and Pacific Oceans, leading to competition with India. Looking east, the Perth USAsia Centre released a report on Indonesia’s expanding engagement in the Indo-Pacific and the economic, political and strategic challenges it faces and Graeme Dobell wraps up the fallout from the Pacific Islands Forum.

Lawfareblog explains that there are actually three separate conflicts driving the often forgotten war in Yemen. Der Spiegel’s Fiona Ehlers went to North Yemen and her touching in-depth feature reveals that the Houthi rebels know how to skilfully exploit civilian suffering for propaganda purposes. The Intercept has the latest on growing opposition within Congress on US support for the Saudi-led coalition while Foreign Policy looks into the American presence in the country over the past 16 years. Take a step back to War is Boring to see the gradual descent into conflict and the roots of the violence in Yemen.

Observing another forgotten conflict, the Financial Times recaps in detail on the war ravaging  Eastern Ukraine and how the population deals with it. And Siobhán O’Grady shines light on the varying death toll data in South Sudan’s civil war.

Strategy Bridge provides a long read into the need to reshape and revitalise UN peacekeeping operations while Foreign Policy expands on the necessity of renewed commitment worldwide—something Fiji knows all about, according to Grant Wyeth. Finally, the Council on Foreign Affairs attempts to nudge US policy in the right direction by promoting the need for (and benefits of) involving more females in peacekeeping operations.

For ECFR, Ulrike Franke looks at the ‘dreamland’ that is Germany’s defence policy, bringing perspectives from both inside and outside Germany. In this regard, we also recommend this older piece from War on the Rocks on the origins of the country’s reluctance to spend more on defence.

Tech geek

First up, airborne tankers aren’t normally that exciting to talk about. However, Lockheed Martin could change all that. Having lost the competition to provide a carrier-based tanker UAV to Boeing with its MQ-25 Stingray, the company is turning its attention to a manned stealthy airborne tanker, known as the KC-Z, to replace the troubled KC-30A. It looks exciting, and potentially could also act as a cargo aircraft to replace the C-130 and C-17.

A next step in responsive space access is airborne launch, and Microsoft co-founder, Paul Allen, has created Stratolaunch Systems which is moving towards its first airborne space launch from the world’s largest aircraft. Now, the company has unveiled a family of launch vehicles to be deployed from the Stratolaunch aircraft, including a potentially reusable space plane.

There’s a great essay by Edwin Chua in Strategy Bridge called ‘Fighting and winning in the information age’. Also have a look at the article by Mick Ryan and Nathan Finney, ‘Science fiction and the strategist 2.0’—both will make you think about the wars to come and what they might look like.

With that future in mind, read War on the Rocks’ piece titled ‘How the Marines will help the US Navy and America’s allies win the great Indo-Pacific War of 2025’.

The Pentagon has released an unclassified summary of its 2018 cyber strategy. Also, take a look inside US Cyber Command’s annual exercise, Cyber Flag.

Finally, Boeing has won the US Air Force’s T-X competition for the next fighter training aircraft. Find out more about this very pretty jet here.

This week in history

On 26 September 1983, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov of the Soviet air defence forces possibly prevented World War 3. He judged an alert on the launch of four US intercontinental missiles as a system malfunction—correctly deciding against prompting a counter-attack. Read Time’s obituary on Petrov.

Multimedia

Since the end of the country’s civil war in 1939, Spain’s rural population has been moving to the cities to find work. As this trend continues, the lives of the last inhabitants of the town of La Estrella are exposed in this photo series by the Independent.

Al-Jazeera’s The Listening Post looks at media reporting in China with a particular focus on coverage of the situation of the Uyghurs and the Southern Media Group. [24:40]

Podcasts

On the latest Peace and Gender, Andrea Thiis-Evensen is joined by Betty Barkha, who shares her personal experiences and professional knowledge about the effects of climate change on women. [15:28]

Episode 5 of ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money delivered on many fronts this week: cyber, submarines, biosecurity and a recap of the United Nations General Assembly. [35:09]

The ABC’s Conversations speaks to journalist and 7.30 correspondent Laura Tingle on what has gone wrong with Australian politics and our political leadership in the last 10 years. [50:29]

The Korea Society brings you an episode taken from an address by Kevin Rudd and South Korean President Moon Jae-in which focuses on all things relating to the Korean peninsula in the contemporary world. [1:02:55]

Events

Canberra, 2 October, 5.30–6.30pm, Women in International Security and ANU: ‘Shaping Australia’s role in Indo-Pacific security in the next decade’ with DFAT Secretary Frances Adamson. Free registration.

Canberra, 4 October, 12.45pm, ANU School of Politics and International Relations: ‘Nationalism and Americans’ attitudes towards international cooperation: lessons of history and policy leadership’. More information here.

Sydney, 4 October, 6–7.30pm, University of Sydney: ‘How Australia can save democracy for the world’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Bashar al-Assad’s forces downed a Russian military plane over Syria on Monday night, killing all 15 Russians on board. Consult the New York Times for the resulting blame-game from the Kremlin, which initially targeted Israel. On the same day, Russia and Turkey agreed on a demilitarised zone around Idlib; DW shines a light on the way forward. Meanwhile, the National Interest claims that the aim of the new US mission in Syria isn’t to counter Islamic State but to oppose Iran. The Atlantic Council investigates growing protests in Iraq over the lack of government action on infrastructure. Looking more broadly at the Middle East, Thomas L. Friedman analyses the breakdown of peace in the region over the past 40 years and Carnegie’s Diplopod talks about the chances of a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine [18:58].

Russia’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, Vostok 2018, came to a close in Eastern Siberia earlier this week. China participated for the first time, and Chatham House, Carnegie and Politico have analysed what that says about the Russia–China relationship. For the China watchers out there, the Center for Strategic and International Studies has released a report analysing China’s military developments and its impact on US strategic thinking. Meanwhile, this lengthy Vox analysis argues that Donald Trump’s China policy is failing. In The Sydney Morning Herald, Jessica Irvine presents the case for free trade, explaining the potential fallout of the US–China trade war for Australians. In The Conversation, Giovanni Di Lieto says Australia will eventually need to pick a side.

On the South China Sea, the New York Times looks at the impact of a Japanese submarine sailing through the contested waters. The East Asia Forum examines Sino-Japanese relations more broadly. And the Financial Review finishes off closer to home with China’s (contradictory?) reactions to freedom-of-navigation operations.

During their third meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in vowed to denuclearise the Korean peninsula. 38 North has all the details of what the two leaders agreed on and this Council of Foreign Relations analysis takes a closer look at the surprising concessions Moon gained.

The United States Studies Centre has labelled 2018 the ‘Year of the Woman’ in US politics, noting that more women are running for US Congress and statewide office in the 2018 midterm elections than in any previous election. Candidates include the first black woman from Massachusetts to run for Congress, the first Native American women to win a major party nomination for governor and the first openly transgender candidate for governor.

With an increasing debate on repatriating looted African art from former European colonial powers, Aditya Iyer describes London’s ‘Uncomfortable Art Tours’. During the tours artefacts are put into historical context, which often forces attendees to reflect on Britain’s colonial past. The Economist has an insightful piece on how an indigenous community in rural New South Wales employs its own successful strategy to fight crime. And Hua Hsu asks in The New Yorker whether we should try to keep politics out of sport.

To get you ready for ‘Tech geek’, here are some interesting reads on the F-35: Brendan Nicholson separates fact from fiction surrounding the plane’s capability and safety issues; retired US Air Force pilot Pete Gavares looks into what it offers in today’s tumultuous environment, and War is Boring dives into the many perceived flaws of the jet, including the cutting of corners to reach its initial operational capability targets.

Tech geek

The US Air Force plans to expand its air combat capability with an additional 74 squadrons, including five extra B-21 Raider bomber squadrons and seven more fighter squadrons. The expansion begins a much-needed response to the growing military capability of Russia and China. The cost will be about US$13 billion according to CSIS’s Todd Harrison.

The proposed US Space Force would also cost about US$13 billion (over five years from fiscal year 2021). Although debate continues on whether and how to establish such a force, US Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson and Defense Secretary James Mattis are now firmly behind the idea. There is a clear pathway to establish the space force as a separate military department with about 13,000 personnel, most of whom would be satellite operators. No ‘space marines’ though …

Getting back down to earth, as we noted earlier in The Strategist’s latest ‘Five domains update’, the US Army is looking to develop a cannon with a range of 1,800 kilometres (1,000 nautical miles). But the idea is drawing fire from the arms control community, which argues the cannon would contravene the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty—something the army disputes. Yet with Russia already violating the INF Treaty, the agreement looks increasingly wobbly.

War is Boring is promoting a comic called The ’Stan about America’s war in Afghanistan. It’s focused on the human element of the war and is based on true stories. Tech geek highly recommends Accessory to War, by Neil DeGrasse Tyson and Avis Lang, which looks at the link between astrophysics and war.

This week in history

Billie Jean King defeated Bobby Riggs in the ‘Battle of the Sexes’ on 20 September 1973, helping to legitimise women’s professional tennis and further women’s rights. Makers has a great profile on King. [3:57]

Multimedia

The same but different: North and South Korea are shown side by side in this photo series by National Geographic.

The Atlantic captures the aftermath of Super Typhoon Mangkhut in the Philippines, Hong Kong and southeast China.

BBC Newsnight highlights the dangers of the anti-vaccination movement. [12:45]

Podcasts

The ABC’s Russia, if you’re listening looks at Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort, who agreed to cooperate with the Mueller investigation. [21:42]

Ever wondered what the life of a combat medic is like? Global Recon hosts a former Navy SEAL sharing his experiences in Iraq and Myanmar. While this podcast is incredibly captivating, please note it contains strong themes. [1:20.50]

CSIS brings you ‘Preventing extremism 17 years after 9/11’, which presents a new initiative to tackle terrorism. [16:03]

Events

Canberra, 24 September, 4–5.30 pm, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific: ‘Parliamentary democracy in the new Malaysia’. More info here.

Canberra, 27 September, 5.30–7.30 pm, ANU Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs: ‘Why Australia needs a radically new defence policy’. Register here.

Perth, 28 September, 5–7 pm, Curtin University: ‘2018 annual human rights lecture’, delivered by the Hon. Michael Kirby AC CMG. Free registration.

ASPI suggests

The world

Ten years ago, the Lehman Brothers collapse was the final catalyst for the global financial crisis that sent economies across the world spiralling into the recession. The crisis had been brewing for at least a year. The Financial Review peers deeply into what happened and puts together some of the lessons learned. Arancha Gonzalez explains in The Economist why multilateral cooperation has proven to be essential in the aftermath of financial crises. For Quartz, Gwynn Guilford travels back in time to the global financial crisis of 1825 to explore the roots of emerging-market crises. And this Guardian long read takes a different angle, using James Bond to assess the Bretton Woods system but also diving into the history of eurobonds.

A UN Human Rights Council report on Syria claims that three government attacks on rebel-held regions in the past six months incorporated chemical weapons, taking the total number of such attacks to 40 in the seven-year conflict. Reuters reports on indications from Germany that it may participate in military intervention if the use of chemical weapons continues.

Foreign Policy looks at Israel’s support of Syrian rebels in the context of its standoff with Iran, and the National Interest examines whether Turkey and Russia will butt heads over the growing crisis. This regularly updated interactive map of Syria shows the latest events and where they happened.

The September issue of CTC Sentinel, West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center’s publication, features an article by Bryant Neal Viñas and Mitchell Silber on Viñas’s experiences as the first American recruited by al-Qaeda after 9/11. And are you wondering why John Bolton, President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, has an issue with the International Criminal Court? Read Slate for the details.

Word has spread that Australia outbid China to fund Fiji’s new military base, and the East Asia Forum dives into changes in the South Pacific due to increased Chinese, Russian, Australian and French engagement in the region. The ABC provides all the facts and figures about China’s presence in the region. Moving further afield, The Strategy Bridge describes the strategic importance of Southeast Asia and of the US’s role in it. Some new analysis from Rahul Roy-Chaudhury at the International Institute for Strategic Studies looks at maritime security in the Indian Ocean and how to foster cooperation among regional groupings.

Brookings has released a new report on the future of military technology. Against the prevailing view, Michael Horowitz believes the race for AI software won’t just be run between the US and China. Also swimming against the tide is War on the Rocks, with its suggestion that the development of swarming technology may be a bit hyped up. Rain Liivoja explains the difficulties in achieving an international agreement on autonomous weapons.

The Global Climate Action Summit wraps up today in San Francisco. While Brookings analyses what to expect from the summit, National Geographic has already found the answer to global warming: forests. The Atlantic looks at the impact climate change is having on world politics using the ‘Day Zero’ scenario from the South African city of Cape Town.

Rounding it off, the Financial Times’ Yuan Yang describes her feelings about returning to China, where she was born, as the paper’s correspondent. Both National Geographic and The Conversation shed light on elephant poaching in Botswana and its effects on conservation. And the Smithsonian Magazine has a fascinating long read about the essential role women played in the Venona project, the US’s effort to break Soviet spy communications.

Tech geek

Ever wanted to peek inside an American E-4B National Airborne Operations Center (codenamed ‘Nightwatch’, or, more prosaically, the ‘doomsday plane’), the jet that follows Air Force One around? There’s a fascinating video of what it’s like inside the aircraft. This aircraft, of which the US has four, is based on a converted Boeing 747 and is responsible for managing nuclear warfare. Its systems are ’80s retro and fittings are hardly luxurious!

The risk of space war is increasing. France looks set to get serious about space security after one of its satellites was approached by a Russian co-orbital inspection satellite, suspected of gathering intelligence. Meanwhile, the US is looking at options to build a space-based surveillance network that would help counter the rapidly growing threat posed by Chinese and Russian hypersonic weapons. That would likely see Russia and China target such a system with their anti-satellite capabilities.

Another option to counter the growing menace of hypersonic weapons is a DARPA project called ‘Glide Breaker’, which is designed to counter hypersonic glide vehicles like China’s DF-17 (formerly DZ-ZF) and Russia’s Avanguard system.

If a major military conflict does happen between the US and Russia in Europe, the Suwalki Gap in Poland will likely be the first point of conflict. There’s an interesting article in Stars and Stripes looking at forward-deployed US forces in the region, which is the modern equivalent to the Cold War Fulda Gap in West Germany.

Finally, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force has successfully tested the latest Aegis system, with an SM-3 Block 1B missile shooting down a target missile.

Multimedia

Meduza has some powerful images from the violent 9 September protests across Russia, where demonstrators expressed their anger about the planned pension reforms.  

This week is Media Literacy Week, and the ABC has put together a ‘survival guide’ for navigating the increasing challenges of information reporting. [Videos, 39–48 minutes each)

SBS on Demand has added the hit British TV series The State to its line-up. The four episodes follow four Brits (two men and two women) travelling to join the Islamic State, capturing how they come to grapple with the reality of life in the so-called caliphate.

Podcasts

ASPI brings you two episodes of Policy, Guns and Money this week: a special with voices from the Land Forces exhibition [32:58], and the latest episode talking about rising right-wing extremism, decriminalising gay sex in India, PLA expansion and Chinese surveillance capabilities. [33:00]

The Dead Prussian hosts the ANU’s Dr Brendan Taylor and chats about his book The four flashpoints: how Asia goes to war’. [28:19]

Events

Sydney, 18 September, 6–7.30 pm, University of Sydney/Sydney Ideas: ‘Differing views: valuing disagreement’. Register here.

Canberra, 20 September, 12–1.30 pm, ANU’s College of Asia and the Pacific: ‘Expanding horizons: Indonesia’s regional engagement in the Indo-Pacific era’. Registration here.

Canberra, 20 September, 6–7 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Hybrids and cascades: new thinking on peacebuilding’. Tickets here ($10 ☹).

ASPI suggests

The world

There has been mixed reaction to the publication of an anonymous op-ed in the New York Times by a senior official in US President Donald Trump’s administration. The author claims that many of his or her colleagues are working in the interest of the American people by thwarting the worst of Trump’s tendencies. The Atlantic’s David Frum argues that the piece threatens to endanger US security by inflaming the president’s ‘paranoia’.

US sanctions against Iran are set to hit its oil exports from November, but Bloomberg reports there are several ways the country could counter American restrictions through ‘discounts, bartering and smuggling’. Hassan Hakimian examines the sanctions’ impact. On a related note, do you know who runs Iran’s foreign policy? Foreign Policy (fittingly) compares the power of Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s long-time foreign policy adviser, Ali Akbar Velayati. Still on Iran, CSIS has released a new report on the country’s military modernisation and its growing influence in the Gulf. On the Middle East generally, have a look at this RAND Corporation research on sectarianism in the region, and read Foreign Policy’s article on Russia’s strategy for undermining Europe—through the Middle East.

And now for some differing opinions on the best way to resolve the situation on the Korean peninsula. Vox and Bloomberg ask whether denuclearisation or a declaration of peace (to officially end the Korean War) should occur first. The National Interest reports that denuclearisation negotiations have reached a deadlock, with both sides expecting concessions of the other first. In the Asia Times, Robert E. McCoy looks at the state of the US–South Korea alliance.

China may be using satellite receiving stations based in the Australian Antarctic Territory for military purposes, possibly contravening the Antarctic Treaty. Listen to this ABC interview with Professor Anne-Marie Brady for more information on the treaty, whether Chinese actions have challenged it and what to expect next.

For The New Republic, Isaac Stone Fish dove deep into self-censorship at American elite universities targeting any work potentially displeasing to the Chinese Communist Party. He found that in most instances censorship is spurred by personal interests, such as maintaining visa access or protecting family in China, but others are motivated simply by economic factors. Meanwhile, the #MeToo movement has reached China, though the government is trying to silence activists. Yanan Wang reports for the Associated Press on the case of Ren Liping, who is speaking out about her alleged rape and trying to hold the police, her university and her ex-boyfriend accountable.

Chatham House has weighed in on Brexit, advocating for a security and foreign policy treaty between the UK and the EU which would allow for coordinated responses to crises like the Novichok nerve agent attack earlier this year. The BBC has the details on the latest revelations in that case involving two suspects who are thought to be Russian military intelligence officers. Russia expert Mark Galeotti spoke on the BBC radio show PM about Russia’s military intelligence service, GRU, and wrote about the West’s ‘obsession’ with the agency in the Moscow Times.

An interesting (and important) Policy Forum piece looks at liveability in urban spaces amid a growing need for design that protects people against terror acts. After neo-Nazi groups marched through the German city of Chemnitz last week, Bettina Vestring looks at widespread right-wing sympathies in Saxony’s police and judiciary, and the problem of underestimating neo-Nazism. Carnegie Europe’s Judy Dempsey shares similar arguments. ABC’s Four Corners examined how former Trump adviser Steve Bannon is attempting to spread his far-right message across the world, including in Australia [39:12].

Tech geek

China is nearing mass production of its fifth-generation J-20 fighter jet now that it has developed a new engine, the WS-15, to power it. The new engine is important for two reasons: it will make the J-20 much more potent, giving it longer range, and most importantly, it will give it the ability to ‘supercruise’ at Mach 1.8, making it comparable to the F-22 Raptor. The J-20 milestone also suggests that a major military technical gap in Chinese defence has been closed and that China can now be more ambitious in developing future fighter aircraft. There are plans to build up to 200 J-20s.

The US Air Force has released a new video showing a range of technologies including laser weapons and unmanned ‘wingmen’ for sixth-generation platforms that could be fielded by the late 2030s.

One of the most innovative space companies is the UK’s Reaction Engines Ltd, which leads development in high-speed propulsion. Its SABRE (which stands for ‘Synergetic Air Breathing Rocket Engine’) technology can also be used for responsive single-stage-to-orbit spaceplanes.

Japan is going one better than spaceplanes and reusable rockets and beginning development of space elevator technology. Space elevators would allow people and cargo to be transported into space at vastly lower cost than rockets. It’s a space-launch technology we can expect to see in the 2050s.

With that future in mind, there’s a great think-piece in Wired on what the world might be like in 2050. Artificial intelligence will be of great importance in this future, and China could beat the West in developing AI-based weapons.

Multimedia

This Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty photo series gives some insights into the dreadful life of North Korean fishermen, whose abandoned vessels often wash ashore on the Russian coast.

VICE has produced a documentary on Paul Cale, a former member of the Australia’s Second Commando Regiment, who has developed a model for close-quarter fighting called integrated close combat, which special forces around the world have adopted. [13:34]

Watch Al Jazeera’s Inside Story for the latest on whether North Korea’s denuclearisation timeline is realistic … or even real. [25:25]

Podcasts

The ABC’s Pacific Beat summarised the Pacific Islands Forum, where leaders signed the Boe Declaration, a strongly worded security communiqué reaffirming that climate change is the biggest threat to the region and calling on the US to reverse its decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement. [06:18]

Popular Front hosted Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff, director of an aid organisation engaged in Syria, to talk about the looming battle around Idlib, including discussing the groups on the ground and their varying levels of popularity. [50:26]

The National Security Podcast looks at the steps taken by the US and Europe to secure their democratic processes and fight fake news. [22:35]

Events

Canberra, 10–12 September, ANU Department of Pacific Affairs: ‘State of the Pacific’ conference. Register here.

Canberra, 13 September, 6–7 pm, ANU National Security College: ‘Chinese Communist Party interference and influence-building: the view from America’. Register here.

Melbourne, 13 September, 5.30–7 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Parallel governance in China: the case of disaster relief’. More info here.

ASPI suggests

The world

The UN Human Rights Council has released a report of an independent fact-finding mission on Myanmar that examined allegations of human rights violations by the country’s armed services against the Rohingya people. The report found that the Myanmar security forces acted with genocidal intent in their treatment of the Rohingya minority in Rakhine State. It’s the first time a UN body has called for Myanmar officials to face possible genocide charges. Foreign Policy blames the international community for ignoring clear warning signs for years, and The Atlantic looks at what might happen next.

The perennial question of whether the US will remain the world’s sole superpower has come up again. War is Boring analyses America’s withdrawal from the world stage. War on the Rocks introduces China’s rise to the mix, focusing on geo-economic policies. Bloomberg offers two articles, one questioning China’s ability to become a global superpower and the other comparing the Chinese and American versions of superpowerhood. The military build-up in the Asia–Pacific as a consequence of both China’s military reforms and an uncertain White House are discussed at length by Jamie Smyth in the Financial Times. In the New York Times, Steven Lee Myers argues that China’s naval expansion has begun to affect the power balance in the Pacific. Learn more about China’s expansion of its marine corps in The National Interest.

On the other side of the world, suggestions for dealing with the current White House look a bit different: German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas penned an op-ed in Handelsblatt calling for a new world order crafted by a united EU. DW analyses the ‘new strategy to deal with Donald Trump’.

Today marks the last day of a UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons meeting that discusses ‘killer robots’, the trending term for lethal autonomous weapons. They’ve been the subject of hot debate—more than two dozen nations and 76 NGOs have called for a ban. For a glimpse into the mind of the meeting’s chair, Amandeep Gill, read this interview. Amnesty International is steadfast in its belief that the weapons need to be banned, mirroring a report released by Human Rights Watch. A 2016 paper explains the opposing view, arguing that autonomous weapons may be a good thing.

The National Interest brings us a thought-provoking long read on irregular warfare. Seth Jones argues that the US needs to accept and prepare for its main adversaries’ continuing use of non-conventional tactics, including the use of non-state proxies. A prime example is the Kremlin’s use of the private military company Wagner, which has been involved in the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, among other places. The Atlantic gives a background on the mercenary firm, while Jeanne Whalen and John Hudson explain why it’s so difficult to sanction Russian businesses without hurting others in the globally connected economy.

Looking at the cyber side of things, an Associated Press investigation revealed that Russian hackers targeted senior Orthodox Church officials in Ukraine, at a time when the institution is grappling with the decision whether to split from the Russian patriarchate.

This week also marked the 55th anniversary of the March on Washington. Time talked to Martin Luther King’s former legal counsel, Clarence B. Jones, about what it was like to hear King deliver his famous ‘I have a dream’ speech.

Tech geek

With former defence industry minister Christopher Pyne being appointed to the defence portfolio and former trade minister Steven Ciobo taking over Pyne’s old job, we can expect defence industry and exports to remain a high priority for the government. But what kinds of technology should Australia be focusing on?

This article in Defence Studies argues that the main benefit that a domestic arms industry provides to a small or medium state is not security of supply (that is, it shouldn’t aim to manufacture everything), but the ability to adapt. A senior figure in Israel’s defence industry makes a slightly different argument for the sector’s success in his country. After realising it couldn’t make everything, Israel embarked on a policy of ‘focused self-reliance’—it decided it would only build things that it couldn’t acquire overseas. There are lessons here for Australia.

On a related note, with the industry innovation programs announced in the 2016 defence white paper and industry policy statement now up and running, this progress report gives a good overview of what Australia’s defence innovation priorities are and where the money is going. Hopefully some of the results will be on display at Land Forces 2018 in Adelaide, 4–6 September.

The plan is that the investment in innovation will result in both capability for the ADF and exports. With Australia officially becoming part of the US national technology and industrial base in 2017, one would hope that export opportunities into the world’s biggest defence spender will open up. However, this CSIS paper suggests there are still a lot of barriers to exporting to the US.

Multimedia

A great visualisation of American and Soviet/Russian arms sales from 1950 to 2017 based on SIPRI data. [4:00; ignore the background music]

These BBC photos provide an insight into life on a Spanish rescue boat in the Mediterranean.

National Geographic has collated 20 amazing photos of abandoned villages throughout Italy.

This SBS Dateline documentary follows the ‘lifeline express’, a train in India that brings health care to those who don’t have access to medical centres. Surgeons perform dozens of surgeries in the hospital on wheels. [24:17]

Podcasts

The National Security Podcast talks to Anooshe Mushtaq, founder and chair of Raqib Taskforce, about countering violent extremism in Australia. [38:57; jump to 1:23]

The third episode of ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money dissects the national security implications of the Liberal leadership spill, Huawei’s ban from Australia’s 5G network, press freedom and Venezuela’s economic crisis. [29:25]

Australian Politics Live looks at what’s next for Australian politics after the rolling of Malcolm Turnbull. [29:33; skip to 0:33 to get into the meat and veg]

Events

Canberra, 5 September, 6–9.30 pm, ANU Law Reform and Social Justice: ‘Film screening: It Stays with You’, followed by panel discussion. Free registration.

Sydney, 5 September, 5.30–7.30 pm, Climate Justice Research Centre: ‘Globalization and the populist explosion: the significance of ideology’. More information here.

Melbourne, 5 September, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Australia’s moment in the Indo-Pacific: ensuring security, stability, and prosperity’. Tickets available here.

ASPI suggests

The world

The world lost another one of its greats this week. Kofi Annan passed away after a short illness. Ramesh Thakur looks back at the former UN secretary-general and Nobel Peace Prize laureate’s achievements, but also at the dark chapters of his tenure. This BBC clip recaps his global career.

On a more positive note, selected Korean families who’d been separated in the war were allowed to briefly reunite. The footage of a 92-year-old woman’s reunion with her 72-year-old son after 68 years apart especially warmed our hearts. The Washington Post has some background on the practice. Which leads us to the question, how powerful is soft power? Graeme Dobell opens the gates with his take on the matter and Foreign Policy’s longer read offers insights into why and how hard power is becoming more influential, again.

Moving on to China, Defense One analyses China’s growing influence throughout Africa. The Economist explains how economic and policy experimentation were quietly accepted after Deng Xiaoping but almost halted under Xi Jinping, and The National Interest looks at how China retains control over its civilian population. War is Boring examines China’s strategy for attaining global superpower status. But that could be easier said than done as its economy continues to slump in the trade war, argues Reuters. Foreign Brief headed into the mountains to get an update on what’s happening with the Doklam standoff between China and India, and John Garnaut explains what Australia is doing to counter China’s ‘campaign of influence’.

With everything happening on our home turf, the ABC’s analysis shows the parallels of hyper-partisanship in Australia and in the US. And in America, all eyes have been on high-level trials: Donald Trump’s ex-campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on eight accounts of fraud; Mimi Rocah and Elie Honig list his options in The Daily Beast. And this Wall Street Journal article explains why Michael Cohen opted for the guilty plea.

Defense One has analysed the impact the US is having on the conflict in Yemen, which suffers from a lack of international attention. Vox outlines the failures of the Pentagon and their ramifications. This spring edition of Insight Turkey discusses whether Saudi Arabia’s brutality is part of a bigger strategy to become a regional power in the Middle East amid its rivalry with Iran.

Meanwhile, the situation in Venezuela keeps deteriorating. These DW pictures and accompanying article show how the currency crisis contributes to the ongoing economic collapse, and why government measures aren’t likely to help. For War on the Rocks, Michael Dempsey runs us through the dysfunctional politics and its repercussions beyond Venezuela’s borders. And drone expert Ulrike Franke revisits the alleged drone attack on President Nicolás Maduro, arguing that we’ll see more drone attacks off the battlefield, particularly by non-state actors, and more terror attacks involving drones.

Finally, New Mandala reviews Women who stay, a new book that discusses the phenomenon of seafaring Filipino men and what happens to the wives they leave behind; Simon Theobald takes an in-depth look at women’s education in Iran; and Briana Flin tells the story of Andy Magdaleno, the only undocumented child in a mixed-legal-status family in the US.

Tech geek

For aficionados of air combat, the Trends in air-to-air combat report published by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments a few years back is worth a read. It argues that over the past hundred years ‘the fundamental goal of air combat has remained constant: leverage superior situational awareness to sneak into firing position, destroy the opposition aircraft, and depart before other enemy aircraft can react’. Or, put another way, the vast majority of kills were against unsuspecting targets. The classic dogfight was always the exception. And the study’s statistical research shows that’s even more the case in contemporary air combat.

The importance of stealth—and defeating it—makes Turkey’s decision to acquire Russia’s advanced S-400 air-defence system very worrying—should the US still allow it to acquire the joint strike fighter. There’s nothing quite like spending billions on the world’s most advanced aircraft only to learn that its key technologies will be revealed to the systems it was designed to defeat! See APSI’s analysis here.

What would Australia do if it managed to get its hands on an S-400? We’d probably take it along with a JSF to the Woomera test range, whose radars and other equipment are currently undergoing a fundamental upgrade to try to map their radar and other electromagnetic profiles as accurately as possible. We’d also use capabilities like those being delivered by Project JP500 Phase 2A to develop and test a range of potential tactics and countermeasures to defeat the S-400. Is there any reason to think Russia won’t be doing that in reverse if it can fly a Turkish JSF off against its S-400?

Multimedia

Fifty years after the Prague Spring, The Atlantic and The Guardian offer photo series capturing the moments when Warsaw Pact states invaded Czechoslovakia to halt liberal reforms.

These aerial pictures show the scale of the Hadj, the annual pilgrimage of observant Muslims to Mecca, which finishes today.

Still trying to wrap your head around Brexit’s impacts on Ireland? Vox has got you covered, including some historical background. [7:17]

And in case you haven’t come across it yet: German broadcaster ZDF has made its six-part Terra X series The story of Europe, hosted by Australian Christopher Clark, available in English. [ca. 50 min each]

Podcasts

Monocle’s The Foreign Desk talks about Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s new president, how he can advance the country despite the continuing Castro influence in Havana, and the Castro legacy itself. [28:59]

Episode 2 of ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money jumps into Australia–China relations, our future submarines, Indonesia and more. [34:09]

The Brookings Cafeteria looks at American foreign assistance, China’s influence and ambitions, and ways to support development on the ground. [44:58]

Events

Adelaide, 26 August, 6 pm, European External Action Service: ‘Public lecture: Towards a new relationship with Europe by EU Ambassador Dr Michael Pulch’. More info here.

Canberra, 28 August, 6–8 pm, Australian National University: ‘Technological entanglement and information security’. Register here.

Canberra, 30 August, 11 am – 12.30 pm, UNSW Canberra Research Group on Cyber War and Peace: ‘Data as a military objective’. Information and registration here.

Melbourne, 3 September, 6.45–7.45 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Why and how the Soviet Union won the Second World War in Europe’. Register here.