Tag Archive for: General

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The world

Following the run-in between the Russian and Ukrainian navies in the Strait of Kerch, the stark escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv is broken down by Christopher Miller for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and ASPI’s Jacqueline Westermann reflects on five years of conflict in Ukraine since the 2013 Maidan protests. If you prefer to listen, The Signal is your go-to. This Bloomberg video captures locals’ reactions to the implementation of martial law in 10 regions of Ukraine and this BNE IntelliNews analysis takes a bit of a different, slightly provocative approach.

The incident has already affected plans for bilateral meetings at the G20 summit that kicks off in Buenos Aires today. US President Donald Trump has announced that he won’t be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin after all—though he still plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Speaking of which, here’s a great graphic of the G20 members’ trade with China and the US. On the topic, The National Interest claims it’s ‘now or never’ to renew relations between Beijing and Washington, and Foreign Policy brings you the latest on the trade war, speculating that Trump’s China policy is his administration’s most consistent (and successful?). In a blast from the past, look back at The Strategist interview with Chinese defector and former politician Chen Yonglin, who outlined China’s strategic goals for the world and for Australia.

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party took a hit, according to The Diplomat, as the opposition—the Kuomintang, which ruled China prior to the 1949 communist takeover—found its feet in last weekend’s midterms. The New York Times warns the international community to keep watch and weighs up the possibility of Taiwan’s absorption into mainland China, while Al-Jazeera has an exclusive interview with Taiwan’s foreign minister, who accuses China of meddling in the elections.

Meanwhile, the BBC and the New York Times have details on what’s behind the Chinese government’s tactic of using exit bans to pressure alleged fugitives into returning to the country.

Following the clashes between Central American migrants and US border guards, HuffPost spoke to doctors on the consequences of the use of tear gas, particularly on children. Meanwhile, Trump has faced a backlash after General Motors announced the closure of several factories. Bloomberg talked to disillusioned GM workers in Ohio who were counting on Trump’s campaign promises.

Poland was busy getting ready to host the 24th UN Climate Change Conference as the US National Climate Assessment released its scary report on the expected impacts of climate change on the US economy by 2100. There’s some good news out of China, though, as the country promises renewed action on climate change. Brookings examines the way forward.

This Chaillot Paper by the EU Institute for Security Studies dissects the security cooperation between Europe and Asia by looking at arms sales and military technology transfer. And a new study by IISS and DGAP looks towards 2030 and assesses whether the EU can meet its military ambitions in the context of Brexit. Also see the Financial Times for projections for the British economy after the EU divorce.

Some fascinating reads we recommend: Der Spiegel interviewed Mohammed Haydar Zammar, who has been involved with radical Islamist jihad since the 1990s and allegedly brought together the Hamburg cell of 9/11. Behrouz Boochani, who’s detained on Manus Island, writes in The Saturday Paper about a portrait of himself and the story it mirrors. And see Zeit Online’s investigation into the Stasi’s infiltration of East Germany’s gamer scene and Forbes on Ulugh Begh, Uzbek pioneer astronomer, who calculated the exact length of a year down to the minute more than 500 years ago.

Tech geek

The US Army is developing an impressive array of future capabilities to prepare for possible war against Russia and China. Real Clear Defense looks at the new equipment, including new main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, robot tanks, ‘lasers’ on armored fighting vehicles and the future vertical lift designed to replace existing utility and attack helicopters. Artillery that can fire a shell 1,600 kilometres to strike an opponent deep in the rear is also on the list.

Disturbing gene-splicing news came out of China this week. A Chinese geneticist claims that he created genetically engineered babies, which have been successfully delivered. The Chinese government has criticised the development, as has much of the international scientific community. Are we on the slippery slope towards a Huxleyan ‘brave new world’?

Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation has written an excellent op-ed on the current realities of space as a contested warfighting domain. It’s also worth reading his 2018 counterspace overview available, here.

China is looking to build a deep-water undersea base in the Manila Trench in the South China Sea. The base would be located 5,000 metres down, and run largely by AI, supporting operations by unmanned underwater vehicles. The base would have military roles as well as support oceanographic research.

Finally, for a perspective beyond military affairs, Deep Field, a 30-minute film based on the Hubble Telescope’s famous deep-field imagery of the distant universe, is a must-see.

This week in history

Eighty-five years ago, the Holomodor (‘killing by starvation’)—the 1932–33 manmade famine—killed between 3 million and 10 million people in the Soviet Union, the majority in Ukraine. It was instigated by the Soviet regime to enforce collectivism by applying impossible production quotas, and seizing grain and food. Some countries, including Australia, acknowledge Holomodor as genocide. This Atlantic piece explains how the famine was hidden from the world.

Multimedia

Take a step back and appreciate what we have in National Geographic’s 100 Best Photos of 2018.

Here’s a video explainer on China’s issues with Taiwan and the role Hong Kong plays in it all. [5:05]

Vox visits the Colombia–Venezuela border, to which hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have headed as they flee the disastrous humanitarian and economic circumstances in their country. [8:29]

Podcasts

Sit back for this episode of The National Security Law Podcast covering everything from the use of tear gas at the US–Mexico border to the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, airstrikes in Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan, and more. [1:08:46]

Events

Canberra, 3 December, 6–7 pm, ANU: ‘Climate change in the Pacific: hopes for the upcoming climate negotiations’ with Prime Minister of Tuvalu the Right Honourable Enele Sosene Sopoaga. Free registration.

Canberra, 4 December, 6–7.30 pm, ANU National Security College: ‘The Uyghur emergency: the causes and consequences of China’s mass incarceration of Turkic Muslims’. More information.

Brisbane, 5 December, 7–8 pm, Russian Club of Brisbane: ‘The Romanovs in 1917’. Free registration essential.

ASPI suggests

The world

Following the arrest of former Interpol head Meng Hongwei, the organisation appointed a new president, South Korean Kim Jong-yang. Lindsey Snell, for The Daily Beast, explains how authoritarian countries use Interpol to persecute critics, and read Eli Lake’s op-ed to understand why choosing the Russian candidate Alexander Prokopchuk would have weakened Interpol’s legitimacy.

Stephen Chen explains how China has significantly advanced its efforts to catch up with the West’s military capabilities by purchasing software used by NATO, and this DW analysis shows there might be beneficiaries of the trade war between the US and China after all. Meanwhile, a Reuters interview with former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has raised some eyebrows because he advocates closer cooperation with China and pushes back against banning Chinese firms from mobile networks. And the New York Times presents part 1 of a five-part series of long investigative pieces on China’s foreign and domestic policies.

APEC has, for the first time, failed to deliver a joint communiqué—due to tensions between the US and China over trade, according to the New York Times. Business Insider explains how APEC managed to divide the US and China even more. The Council on Foreign Relations makes an interesting point, highlighting the absence of India—Asia’s third largest economy and the second largest in terms of population—from the summit.

The fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi continues, with The Middle East Eye following up on rumours that the US administration gave advice to the Saudi king and crown prince on how to handle the situation and protect themselves. The Guardian’s Martin Chulov looks at one of the alleged steps—blaming it on others—and recaps what we know so far. Meanwhile, the Sydney Morning Herald reports on a woman who claimed earlier this year that she was married to Khashoggi, and the MIT Technology Review shows that online censorship in Saudi Arabia increased sharply following the murder. Handelsblatt has the details on Germany’s complete halt of arms exports to the kingdom.

Speaking of Saudi Arabia, the country has conducted well over 16,000 air raids on targets throughout Yemen, a third of which were non-military. See this interactive collection of material from Al Jazeera for the facts and figures. The Hill claims there may be room for collaboration between Iran and the US over their strategies in Yemen, which could set a precedent for future cooperation. Data compiled by Save the Children has found that anywhere between 60,000 and 109,000 children have died from acute severe malnutrition in the three-year-long Yemeni conflict. The Washington Post says enough is enough and offers up the road to peace.

Emails are yet again in the news in the US—not the ones sent by Hillary Clinton, but by Ivanka Trump, who used private email accounts for government business. The Washington Post has all the details. In the wake of CNN’s Jim Acosta’s barring from the White House, Slate shares insights into controversial new rules for White House press conferences and briefings.

The European Eye on Radicalization has a fascinating interview with Dr John Horgan, leading expert in the psychology of terrorism, on religious converts, countering violent extremism and deradicalisation, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies has you covered on the evolution of the terrorist threat in this new report.

Finally, this long Wilson Quarterly piece by Anne Applebaum dives deep into the soul of NATO and explores how and why it may need to change.

Tech geek

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has an interesting article on how emerging technologies with military applications could upend the balance of power, potentially leading to nuclear war. The technologies considered include strategic cyberattack, hypersonics and advanced missile defence capabilities.

Dmitry Stefanovich of the Russian International Affairs Council has released a presentation on emerging prompt-strike capabilities with a focus on hypersonics.

With these items about new types of military power in mind, it’s useful to consider where ‘legacy’ approaches to war are going. It’s sobering that the US Navy is facing serious risks in sustaining an adequate fleet size in the coming 2020 budget. The more limited funding will also affect the US’s ability to modernise and keep up with new technologies. That raises the question of whether we’re witnessing a transition moment in military power.

Todd Harrison from the Center for Strategic and International Studies has published a great analysis on the cost of the proposed US space force. It ranges from US$11.3 billion to US$21.5 billion for three different variants: a US space corps within the US Air Force; a ‘space force lite’; and a ‘space force heavy’, which includes missile defence architecture.

Defence Connect also has a great piece on the US space force (with some comment from tech geek on the issue) and how Australia can play a role. With that in mind, Defence Connect has established a space blog, Space Connect, covering the broad range of Australian space developments, including commercial space.

This week in history

The 22nd of November marked the 55th anniversary of the assassination of US president John F. Kennedy. Despite Lee Harvey Oswald’s arrest for the murder, conspiracy theories still abound, ranging from the Umbrella Man to Ted Cruz’s father and beyond. See this Washington Post article on how the assassination affected US politics.

Multimedia

Ever wondered where you fit on the populist scale? Find out here in this short quiz by the Guardian.

Less than 25 kilometres of water separates Africa from Spain, the final destination of countless migrants fleeing violence and/or poverty. Al Jazeera’s photo series shows the conditions many of these individuals must face before making the final journey across the Mediterranean.

Podcasts

Episode 8 of ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money brings you the latest on the Manus Island naval base, misinformation about terrorism and what’s happening with Brexit. [31:59]

In a recent episode of Please Explain, Jacqueline Maley, Miki Perkins, Georgina Dent and Sally Rugg give a recap of the recent sexual harassment allegations and #MeToo moments in NSW politics. [34:25; from 25:50 the podcast talks about the Bourke Street attack]

Events

Melbourne, 26 November, 1–2 pm, La Trobe University: ‘Deportation of Rohingya people and the ICC’s jurisdiction over Myanmar’. Free registration.

Port Hedland, 27 November, 6.30–8.30 pm, ANU: ‘The universe and the future of space’ with Dr Brad Tucker. Register here.

Canberra, 29 November, 9 am – 5 pm, ANU: ‘The 10 year rollercoaster of global health equity: power, progress and pitfalls’. More information here.

ASPI suggests

The world

This week’s headlines were dominated by reporting on the centenary of the end of World War I. Armistice commemorations were held across the world. ABC Nightlife reflects on the 100th anniversary in this podcast, and the Guardian and the New York Times have photo series capturing different remembrance events. The short video accompanying this CNN analysis looks back at the military technologies developed during the war, while the article itself explains how Germany’s culture of remembrance grapples with the Great War.

Of course, the US president’s behaviour this weekend didn’t go unnoticed. CNN and Foreign Policy believe Donald Trump’s trip highlighted rather than repaired the cracks in US–European relations. In The New Yorker, Rebecca Mead criticises Trump’s no-shows due to rain during the commemorations and recommends learning from how the UK remembers World War I.

Speaking of the UK, London quickly had to leave the sentiment of the weekend behind, with further Brexit discussions on the agenda. Euronews regularly updates this overview with new details of the 500+ page document of the draft withdrawal agreement between the UK and EU. The European Commission has a more in-depth fact sheet. Theresa May’s position as prime minister looks increasingly shaky, though, after cabinet ministers resigned over the agreement and whispers of a no-confidence motion grew louder. Carnegie Europe’s Peter Kellner navigates you through it all.

There have been more developments in the US since the last week’s midterms: FiveThirtyEight gives us a look at some charts, Forbes explains the market impact and Vox looks at the role racism played in the GOP’s strategies in Florida and Georgia. Turn back to this National Interest piece on the US president’s foreign policy dilemma following the midterms. And Mark Penn and Andrew Stein argue in the Wall Street Journal that Hillary Clinton will likely run for president again in 2020.

As the trade war between China and the US continues, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sits down with Douglas Paal to discuss the threat of increased confrontation. Foreign Affairs brings you a proposal for a deal between Beijing and Washington to de-escalate the situation.

Meanwhile, lawmakers in the US took on the plight of Uyghurs in China. Politico has the details on the bill, while Der Spiegel provides harrowing insights from members of China’s Muslim minority who reached Kazakhstan after escaping the internment camps in Xinjiang.

Reuters published a special investigative report on Venezuela, which is following in China’s footsteps and monitoring its citizens’ behaviour through a national ID card. And Crisis Group investigates the very real threats facing roughly 720,000 Rohingya Muslims if they’re forced to resettle in Myanmar, while a Washington Post opinion piece describes how decisions are made without consulting the Rohingya.

In conflict news, a Bloomberg piece in the Financial Review argues that the Egyptian-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Palestine won’t last as conditions in Gaza deteriorate. Al-Jazeera reports that Palestinians remain sceptical of the deal because Israel has broken past agreements.

We’re closing with some recommendations: Intelligencer provides some meat on Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort’s dealings in Ukraine; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty investigates the international ambitions of Azov, the Ukrainian ultra-nationalist movement; and War is Boring brings you an emotional recount of life at home from an American Army veteran of the war in Afghanistan.

Tech geek

There’s an interesting article in Stars and Stripes about China’s new H-20 bomber, including some comment from tech geek himself. The H-20 will be a Chinese version of the US B-2 Spirit and shows how quickly China is catching up with the US on the military technology front.

Sticking with China, the big space news of the week is its announcement that it intends to develop reusable rockets like those used by the US-based company SpaceX. A Chinese startup, Link Space, is developing the ‘New Line 1’ rocket, which is designed to launch satellites weighing up to 200 kilograms into low-earth orbit.

The success of the Democrats in the US midterms could mean big changes for US defence spending, raising the prospect that the US space force may be stillborn and that spending on the modernisation of nuclear forces may be reduced.

Check out this great video of Raytheon’s high-energy laser system for defending the ground units against drone swarms and incoming missiles. It gives an idea of what a battlefield full of directed-energy weapons might look like and how drone swarms could be countered.

China has revealed a prototype of a counter-stealth ‘quantum radar’ which is also resistant to jamming. Once perfected, it could erode the stealth advantage of aircraft like the F-35 and the B-2.

Finally, here’s the report everyone is discussing on Twitter about how the US is poorly placed to win a future war against Russia and China. It’s well worth reading, and is very thought-provoking on how the US and its allies—including Australia—should prepare for the next war.

This week in history

During the night of 9 November 1938, the November pogroms across Nazi Germany marked the beginning of the Holocaust. SA troops and civilians torched synagogues and destroyed Jewish businesses on what became known as Reichspogromnacht or Kristallnacht. Read German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s speech to commemorate the night’s 80th anniversary here.

Multimedia

The California wildfires have claimed the lives of more than 60 people and destroyed more than 12,000 structures. People and National Geographic captured the devastating impact in photos.

The latest episode of Middle Ground brings together six young Israelis and Palestinians to discuss the ongoing conflict and their feelings. [23:21]

See Thou Shalt Not Kill: Israel’s Hilltop Youth by Al-Jazeera on radicalised Jewish youth in Israel. [26:05]

Podcasts

After Poland celebrated the 100th anniversary of its independence on 11 November, the BBC’s Start the Week looked back at the country’s history. [41:40]

Foreign Policy sits down with Benjamin Ferencz, the last living prosecutor involved in the Nuremberg trials, to discuss the difficulty of balancing the murder of millions against just 22 defendants. [30:49]

The latest from Global Dispatches talks about the deal between the Libyan government and the Italian coast guard which forced thousands of refugees into detention centres without access to basic human rights. [22:30]

Events

Melbourne, 19 November, 12.30–2 pm, EU Centre at RMIT: ‘Trump’s nationalism, nuclear missile treaty and future of European security’. More information here.

Canberra, 22 November, 6–7 pm, ANU/Canberra Times: ‘Meet the author—in conversation with David Marr’. Free registration.

Melbourne, 22 November, 6.30–8.15 pm, La Trobe University: ‘The Honourable Julie Bishop on politics, leadership and the Liberal Party’. Tickets $15.

ASPI suggests

The world

Kicking off in the US with the 2018 midterm elections, the ‘blue wave’ seemed more like a strong ripple as the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives but the Republicans retained the Senate. Dive into this National Interest piece to see why the Democrats didn’t get the results they were so dearly hoping for. The BBC has all the maps and charts you need, and for some (incredibly accurate) political hindsight, see this piece from before the midterms in The New Yorker and its accompanying video. The Atlantic Council asked its experts to discuss how the election results will affect a variety of US President Donald Trump’s policies.

The midterms did, however, bring some amazing results in other areas. Vox has all the details on how more women will be serving in Congress than ever before, including many from minority groups. International reaction to the elections is outlined in this CBC article, and Politico focuses on what the new Democratic house means for Europe. Finally, see Foreign Policy on why it’s so hard for many Americans to vote and what might be done to fix the problem.

We can’t get away from the US this week—Washington’s new sanctions on Iran, and on countries that trade with it, came into effect on Monday. India’s Economic Times looks at some of the nations that have managed to secure waivers from the US, while the Wall Street Journal reports that Turkey (much like France) aims to defy the new measures. On another level, Al Jazeera investigates how Iranian women are among the hardest hit by US sanctions. And see this Carnegie Endowment article for why this round of sanctions could provide more risk than reward for the US.

Coming back to our region, Foreign Minister Marise Payne met yesterday with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing in a visit that’s been hailed as a sign of a thaw in China–Australia relations. There are still some major points of difference between Canberra and Beijing, however. As expected, Payne broached the topic of the internment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. ASPI research detailed the scale of the camps and our analysts have highlighted the importance of standing up for human rights from both humanitarian and security perspectives.

Preparations are in full swing in Papua New Guinea for the APEC meeting later this month. A large part of the security operation is being handled by the Australian Defence Force, with about 1,500 troops to be stationed there during the summit. ABC Radio investigates the impact of Trump’s absence from the meeting, in what will be only the third time a US president has missed the summit.

It looks like an increased Australian presence in PNG and the South Pacific more broadly may be more than just an APEC-related flash in the pan. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a $3 billion plan to step up Australia’s efforts in our region, including infrastructure funding, new diplomatic posts and an increased military commitment. This comes at a time of growing Chinese investment and influence in the region. The Financial Review investigates whether the two countries can be, as Wang said in Beijing, ‘not rivals but partners’.

Trump’s pick for the next US ambassador to Australia, Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr, is relatively unknown outside of Washington. See this New York Times article for background on the Republican lawyer who—pending congressional confirmation—will be headed for Canberra. ASPI’s Michael Shoebridge has a good feeling …

Tech geek

Some interesting developments have come out of China this week. First, there was a mock-up of China’s CH-7 unmanned combat aerial vehicle on display at the Zhuhai military expo. It looks like an almost exact copy of the cancelled US X-47B built by Northrop Grumman.

China also revealed a new short-range anti-ship ballistic missile, the CM-401, which could be based on land, or on its Type 055 Renhai-class destroyers. With a potential maximum range of 1,000 kilometres, a CM-401 battery deployed on Fiery Cross Reef would cover most of the South China Sea, and much of Vietnam’s territory.

At the Euronaval exhibition in Paris, France’s Naval Group unveiled its concept for a radically different  future submarine, the SMX-31 Electric. Artist’s impressions can be seen here. CSIS hosted two US Navy admirals, who talked about the future of submarine warfare.

There’s an interesting discussion with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ Toshi Yoshihara on the military balance in the western Pacific at CIMSEC. A key point is the rapid expansion of naval surface ships over the last 10 years that is shifting the balance of power in the region and could presage a global conflict. Yoshihara also warns against dismissing China’s naval advances, which could leave the West unprepared for a much more capable PLA Navy.

Finally, here’s footage of a Russian Su-27 fighter making an unsafe intercept of a US Navy EP-3 Aries aircraft over the Black Sea last week.

This week in history

Named ‘x’ for unknown, this week in 1895 German physicist Wilhelm Roetgen accidentally discovered the x-ray. Just six months later, they were being used on wounded soldiers by battlefield surgeons.

Multimedia

For a confronting view of child soldiers in South Sudan, see this Al Jazeera photo series.

The ABC’s 7:30 brings you an interview with Lucy Hawking, Stephen Hawking’s daughter, talking about her father’s life, politics and the future. [5:54]

Reuters has published another piece in its compelling ‘Ocean shock’ series. See the latest instalment on the effect of the global fish pellet industry on African communities already being hit hard by climate change.

Podcasts

Historian Dan Snow sits down with author Calder Walton to discuss Russia’s history of electoral interference all over the world in this episode of History Hit. [30:48]

After Jeff Sessions quit as US attorney-general, Russia, if You’re Listening investigates the impacts of his resignation and what comes next. [25:57]

Episode 7 of ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money brings you the latest on the (potential) next US ambassador to Australia, the connection between human rights and global security, and China’s ‘re-education’ camps. [36:37]

Events

Canberra, 11 November, 10.30 am – 12 pm, Australian War Memorial: ‘Remembrance Day national ceremony’. Information here.

Melbourne, 14 November, 1–2 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘The prospects for a rules-based trade and investment order’. Register here.

Canberra, 15 November, 6–7.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘No meaning or control: democracy’s future in the face of domestic and foreign influences’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

While many perceive China to be the antagonist in a ‘new cold war’ with the US, this Foreign Policy article accuses US President Donald Trump of being behind the deterioration in relations. Playing down the cold war fears, Graeme Dobell argues competition does not mean confrontation. Still on China, an ASPI ICPC report brings to light the rapid expansion of ‘re-education’ camps in Xinjiang province. In an investigative piece based on ASPI’s research, the ABC reports that it’s believed up to two million Uyghurs and members of other Muslim groups have been detained in these camps in violation of their human rights.

Following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and amid the ongoing war in Yemen, Al Jazeera has the latest on European arms sales to Riyadh, reporting that, unlike Germany, most European nations will continue arms exports to Saudi Arabia, alongside the US. Defense One brings you the US commander in the Middle East’s thoughts on the ‘extraordinarily important’ US–Saudi relationship, while the Financial Times examines the renewed calls to end the war in Yemen. The New York Times has put together another graphic piece on that war, this time focusing on its impact on Yemeni children (warning: content may be ignored by the international community).

Far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro, dubbed ‘Brazil’s Trump’, has been elected as the country’s next president. This BuzzFeed article from earlier this month has six facts to know about Bolsonaro, including details on some of his very controversial views. The Economist similarly dissects his program and looks at the effect positivism had on liberalism in Latin America. And in New Statesman, using Bolsonaro’s victory as an example, Paul Mason explains how quickly the middle class can punish the elite in today’s fragile and unstable circumstances.

A new leader ascending to power in one part of the world, another one heralding her exit from politics. Angela Merkel announced she’ll step down as her party’s leader this year and won’t seek re-election as Germany’s chancellor in 2021. The Strategist brings you analysis on the step-by-step withdrawal and Merkel’s potential successors and Philipp Liesenhoff explains in the Washington Post how German political parties should see this as an opportunity.

Meanwhile, as the US midterm elections loom, Vox, using data from the Pew Research Center, mapped the biggest divides between Democrats and Republicans. See this ABC opinion piece for how the vote could be the first referendum on the Trump presidency and the New York Times on how the economic situation in key states could influence the vote.

Now for some different perspectives on the deadly attack in Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Synagogue on Saturday: Jeff Blattner shares insights into the bonds that tie Pittsburgh’s population together; David M. Shribman commends the city’s religious harmony and tolerance; and Wired looks at how bots played a significant role in pushing Twitter activity on this incident and other news events.

Let’s finish with a quick whip around the world. Some interesting research coming out of Chatham House provides advice on the approach the UK government should take in its Russia policy. This Atlantic Council analysis looks at the dire impacts on Ukraine of around 25% of its workforce being employed abroad and how the brain drain could be reversed. Joseph Goldstein tells how and why Uganda welcomes refugees with open arms, after the government there made ‘hosting refugees a core national policy’.

Tech geek

The US Navy is developing high-energy laser weapons, railguns and advanced gun-launched guided projectiles to enhance the survivability and effectiveness of its ships. There’s an interesting Congressional Research Service report which covers these important technologies.

Sticking with the US Navy, plans for a 355-ship force are being revised, with calls for a fleet of 400 ships by 2039. Such a fleet would be 40% larger than the current navy. Interestingly, an article last year from RUSI suggested China was aiming for a 500-ship navy and an article in The Drive echoes concerns that China’s PLAN will overtake the US Navy in size over time.

Warrior Maven is posting on how the US Army is evaluating new intelligence analysis technologies in order to fuse multiple sources of intelligence—drones, satellites, geospatial data and SIGINT—into a coherent multi-spectral intelligence picture. National Defense has a six-part series on the US Army’s priorities for modernisation, starting with a piece on how soldiers can be helped to better do their jobs.

Small Wars Journal looks at the idea of technological fluency and how it might apply to the use of special forces between 2030 and 2050. The article is part of the ‘Mad Scientist Initiative’ and is sponsored by the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command.

Finally, no Tech geek column would be complete without a mention of space. Asteroid mining is one of the coolest upcoming ‘big space’ projects, with ‘start-ups’ like Planetary Resources vying to get rich from mining space rocks. Here’s a forecast through to 2025 that shows there are big bucks to be made on the high frontier.

This week in history

The 1991 Madrid Conference was the first time Israel came together with its neighbours and Palestine to discuss peace in the Middle East. The meeting aimed to produce more peace treaties between Arab countries and Israel following the 1979 Egypt–Israel treaty and is said to have paved the way for the Oslo Accords in 1993.

Multimedia

ABC’s 7.30 tries to unpack the challenges posed by Australia’s population growth. Parts 1, 2 and 3 focus on overall population size, mega-cities and migration to regional areas, respectively. [12–13 minutes each]

On a more colourful note, see this BBC photo series on the Día de Muertos (‘Day of the Dead’) parade in Mexico City.

Podcasts

Peace and Gender discusses how women experience post-conflict environments. [15:55]

The National Security Podcast has a special episode about the Women in National Security Conference featuring Dr Nicole Renvert and ASPI’s Dr Huong Le Thu discussing all things Indo-Pacific. [38:07]

The Foreign Desk brings you another view on the Chinese ‘detention centres’ in Xinjiang province. [27:50]

Events

Melbourne, 5 November, 1–2 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Constitutional reform in Sri Lanka: meeting majoritarian challenges while providing for meaningful devolution’. More information here.

Canberra, 5 November, 5:30–7:30 pm, ASPI: ‘In-conversation: women in defence—Australian and Swedish experiences’. Tickets here.

Canberra, 8 November, 9:30 am – 12 pm, ANU: ‘Deep conversation: the many tipping points before 1.5C’. Register here.

Mapping China’s ‘re-education’ camps: the power of open-source intelligence

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) has long been undervalued; elbowed out by sexier-sounding ‘secret intelligence’, it has also often been overlooked.

But what is intelligence?

For the answer, let’s go straight to the wisdom of the Middle Kingdom and poor, overused Sun Tzu, who said: ‘If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperilled in a hundred battles.’ This tells us what we need intelligence to do for us, but what isn’t well understood is that much of the information we need isn’t ‘secret’ or ‘classified’. It is often by combining publicly available and hidden information that we can reveal covert or clandestine intent.

As demonstrated by the Bellingcat investigation into the Skripal poisoning and the revelations about Strava’s fitness heatmap (which one of us highlighted earlier this year), in the OSINT world, the devil is in the detail.

That detail lives in cyberspace, and cyberspace is an OSINT goldmine when you know how to use it and where to look.  

Over the past few months, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre (ICPC) has leveraged its cyber, technical and Chinese-language skills to consolidate and expand on the rich and growing body of work that is shedding a brighter light on the Chinese state’s network of ‘re-education’ camps in Xinjiang province.

Our contribution includes a newly released ICPC report and an associated public database.

In addition, today the ABC published some of this research on a fantastic digital site, infused with its own original reporting to provide more context to some of our data.

Our report covers 28 camps that we’ve calculated the size of and tracked the growth of over time. Since early 2016, there has been a 465% increase in the size of these camps. They currently take up 2.7 million square metres of floor space, which is the equivalent of 43 Melbourne Cricket Ground stadiums.

We based our analysis on a wide range of sources, including satellite:

  • geo-located imagery of the 28 camps
  • time-lapsed imagery of their growth from 2016 to 2018
  • measurement of their size (the largest camp in the sample is 526,500 square metres; it was covered recently by the BBC)
  • calculation of their growth over time (one camp grew by over 2469.29% between 2016 and 2018; it was reported on by the New York Times)

Chinese-language information:

academics, bloggers and NGOs—including, of particular note:

international media reporting by the BBC, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, AFP, AP and Buzzfeed (which included coverage of missing Uyghurs with Australian permanent residency).

All of the Chinese documents we used—both new ones we found and material already revealed by others—have been saved in the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. Many valuable sources, especially construction tenders and government web pages, have already been taken offline by censors. (And for those who do online research that might be censored, we recommend this Wayback Machine Chrome extension.)  

We have been cautious in our analysis in our pursuit of the answer to a single overarching question: Can we prove that these facilities are not prisons, drug rehabilitation centres or legitimate vocational training centres? To meet that threshold, we examined thousands of pieces of evidence from multiple sources in order to corroborate the premise that the facilities are punitive in nature. We encourage you to take a look at our evidence base and to download the various datasets.

Our database is by no means exhaustive or final. It will continue to develop and grow as additional datasets are added and feedback is received. We hope media outlets, researchers, NGOs and governments see it as a resource they can use in their work and potentially contribute to.

We now live in a world in which 4.1 billion+ people use cyberspace and where organisations and governments must increasingly live and engage online. And it’s fast becoming a world where it’s impossible to hide from satellites. The value of high-quality OSINT is that it pulls multiple strands of information together that can provide a unique platform to demand greater transparency and accountability.

The world’s journalists, diplomats and NGOs have only very limited, if any, access to Xinjiang province. But that doesn’t mean we can’t see what’s right in front of our eyes.

ASPI suggests

The world

US President Donald Trump’s next target in a growing list of international agreements is the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Commentators in the Washington Post and The National Interest contend that Trump is right to leave the agreement, arguing that it constrains America while allowing other states to build up their intermediate-range missile arsenals. On the other side of the silo, DW claims that it’s not in Washington’s (or Europe’s) interests to withdraw from the treaty. Finally, The Atlantic takes a stab at what might come next and provides all the background you need.

As several thousand people fleeing violence and poverty approach Central American border checkpoints, Trump says he plans to cut foreign aid to the affected countries. The potential impacts of aid cuts are explained by the Council on Foreign Relations, which believes slashing aid will merely create more caravans. Taking you back to the beginning, Vox shares how the caravan formed and why.

With more gruesome details being revealed in Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, this AFP piece collected other voices of Saudi dissidents to show the fear they live in and how the murder aggravated their situations. International condemnation of the murder has also continued, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel announcing she intends to halt arms exports to Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is yet to receive such strong condemnation for its role in the brutal war in Yemen, a conflict examined here by the New York Times.

BuzzFeed has an in-depth portrait of Maria Zakharova, the infamous Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, focusing on how she turned around Russia’s diplomatic communications strategy. The Daily Beast and Associated Press have both summarised an investigative piece by Russian journalist Denis Korotkov in which he reveals that Yevgeny Prigozhin—better known as ‘Putin’s chef’ and the man behind the St Petersburg troll factory—allegedly ordered violent attacks against opponents of the Russian president.

The Japan Times looks the history of the relationship between Japan and China and the New York Times examines what to expect from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to China this week. Branching off slightly and for the economists out there, see the Financial Times for the latest on China’s economic decline and this War on the Rocks piece on China’s economic vulnerability.

The Belt and Road Initiative may be losing some of its appeal as concern grows over debt traps and ‘Chinese colonialism’. Chatham House explains why progress on the BRI has stalled and looks at whether China is running out of resources to support it. The Carnegie Endowment investigates scepticism in Europe surrounding the BRI and the challenges faced by both the EU and the US in maintaining a rules-based global order. Further afield, The Diplomat analyses the impact Pakistan’s new stance on the China–Pakistan economic corridor will have on the BRI.

This interactive tool put together by the Council on Foreign Relations gives a neat overview of gender parity and its potential economic impact. It offers details on how to achieve it, how selected countries perform and how significantly the GDPs of various economies would grow through if gender parity could be achieved.

Bringing it home, the debate on whether to move Australia’s embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem has continued, with arguments on The Strategist both for and against the move, and a look at the potential effects on Indonesia–Australia relations in The Diplomat. It’s also been revealed that senior diplomats and military chiefs were not consulted before reports emerged about Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s plan to review the embassy’s location.

Tech geek

Assuming the US withdraws from the INF Treaty, what are America’s options for deploying new intermediate-range conventional and nuclear missile systems? A key factor will be responding to China’s build-up of intermediate-range nuclear forces. Jesse Johnson in the Japan Times has a good overview of how Washington might counter such weapons.

There’s also a great piece by Eric Sayers in War on the Rocks on how intermediate-range nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles might be deployed in the Indo-Pacific region to counter Chinese and Russian nuclear forces. How are the Russians responding? Check out three key strategic commentators giving Moscow’s view.

There’s some interesting news in military airpower. At Euronaval 2018, France’s Dassault Aviation showed models for its UCAS (unmanned combat air system) and, most interestingly, its next-generation fighter, making clear that the French are thinking about manned-unmanned air combat capabilities as part of Europe’s proposed future air combat system for the mid-2030s.

China is developing liquid metal robots, inspired by the T-1000 Terminator in Terminator 2: Judgment Day, and is planning to produce a new generation of ‘soft robots’ within the next 10 years using liquid metal alloys that can self-reconfigure.

Thinking about the future of submarine warfare? David Axe in War is Boring talks about the US Navy’s plans for future attack submarines, and Tong Zhao has a great piece on China’s desire for more nuclear-armed submarines.

This week in history

This week in 1945 the United Nations was officially established after the original 51 members ratified its charter on 24 October. The UN has conducted 63 peacekeeping missions across the globe since its founding and its membership has expanded to 193 nations. South Sudan became the newest member in 2011.

Multimedia

Having trouble picturing the size and scope of the Central American immigrant caravan? Be blown away by The Atlantic’s photo series.

See the insightful and confronting address by the chief of the Australian Defence Force, General Angus Campbell, at this year’s Women in National Security conference held at the Australian National University. [32:26]

Podcasts

ASPI’s special episode of Policy, Guns and Money dives into counterterrorism from Australian and British perspectives with special guest Sir Paul Stephenson, former commissioner of London’s Metropolitan Police. [31:20]

Listen to Can He Do That? to remain up to date on the challenges presented to Trump by the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and what exactly is at stake for the US president. [29:53]

How effective is the US nuclear umbrella in the Northeast Asia? The Korea Society focuses on South Korea and Japan and how they fit into America’s Asia strategy. [28:19]

Events

Canberra, 1 November, 6–7.15 pm, ANU Gender Institute: ‘Countering violent extremism and national plans for women, peace and security’. Information here.

Melbourne, 30 October, 12–1.30 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Reporting North Korea’. Book here.

Sydney, 29 October, 5–7 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Annual Hedley Bull memorial lecture’ with Bob Carr. Tickets here ($2).

National security wrap

The beat

Losing the war on drugs

Ten years after it was adopted, the United Nations Political Declaration and Plan of Action on illicit drugs has failed to reduce demand and production despite global efforts to eliminate or significantly reduce the availability of drugs by next year. A new report by the International Drug Policy Consortium, a global network of NGOs, revealed that poppy cultivation and cocaine production have risen since the 2009 declaration. The report notes that the strategy has targeted the most vulnerable—drug users, subsistence farmers involved in illegal crop cultivation and small-scale traffickers—because they’re easier to apprehend than wealthy and well-connected people. It urges an approach based more on prevention and treatment.

Hate crime rise may be linked to Brexit

UK police have warned that hate crime could rise as Brexit negotiations continue. Their assessment is based on the large spike in hate crimes that occurred in the aftermath of the Brexit vote in June 2016. Monitoring group Tell Mama, which tracks anti-Muslim incidents, also reported a spike in abuse after the vote. Incidents of hate crime already rose by 17% over the year to March. Last month, leaked contingency plans revealed UK police feared crime would spike with a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

Drone poaches poachers

British police have had a series of successes using drones equipped with thermal imaging scanners, including finding a young rape victim and a missing dementia patient. Britain’s first police thermal imaging drone was launched in July 2017 and the technology was formally adopted in August last year to address crime in rural areas. Most recently, Lincolnshire Police used a thermal imaging drone in the arrest of suspected deer poachers.

CT scan

ASEAN members to share terror intel

A year after the last Islamic State–affiliated fighters were driven out of the Philippine city of Marawi, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations defence ministers meeting in Singapore concluded with a proposal requiring ASEAN’s members and partners to develop a joint database and an intelligence-sharing platform to combat terrorism, radicalisation and violent extremism. Under the ‘Our Eyes’ proposal, senior defence officials from ASEAN’s member states will meet fortnightly to share intelligence on terrorist activities and other non-traditional threats.

Taliban commander killed

A key Taliban commander is among 21 militants killed in Kunduz province by Afghan security forces on Sunday. Mullah Mansoor’s death followed last week’s deadly insider attack, for which the Taliban claimed responsibility. Senior Afghan officials were killed in that attack, including Kandahar’s police chief, while US Army Brigadier General Jeffrey Smiley was wounded. The Sunday crackdown resulted in the Taliban being driven out of several villages in the province, according to an Afghan official.

Indonesian group poses terror threat

Indonesia-based terror group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), an affiliate of Islamic State, is active and presents a significant threat, according to the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict in Jakarta. The institute says a significant crackdown on JAD has not diminished the group’s capability to launch a terror attack in the near future, particularly in central and west Java—areas known as a hotbed for militancy and home to many JAD supporters. This year a Jakarta court declared JAD a forbidden organisation after it was found to be responsible for a spate of terror attacks that included the 2018 Surabaya bombings and an attack in Jakarta in 2016.

Checkpoint

Tensions brew in the EU

Relations between Paris and Rome have soured over unauthorised migration and illegal crossings of the French–Italian alpine border. Italy’s interior minister, Matteo Salvini, accused French border guards of ‘dumping’ illegal migrants in Italy on multiple occasions—the most recent involving foreign minors near the ski village of Claviere. Salvini, who’s known for his anti-immigration stance, said ‘Italy is no longer the refugee camp of Europe’.

Checkpoint on the new Silk Road

A new checkpoint will be built on the Azerbaijan–Georgia border, which both countries say will improve relations and contribute to the construction of a ‘new Silk Road’. The shared border, which is contested and littered with landmines, has been a cause of political tensions between the neighbours. The Georgian ambassador to Azerbaijan said customs projects like the checkpoint contribute to better relations, and the chairman of Azerbaijan’s State Customs Committee said the new Silk Road initiative, which aims to link Europe and Asia through railway networks, will promote cooperation through economic engagement.

Border post to improve Nigeria–Benin ties

The presidents of Nigeria and Benin opened a joint border post at Seme-Krake in Nigeria’s Lagos State. The post is located on the Abidjan–Lagos corridor, through which 70% of subregional trade passes, and was financed by the European Commission. The initiative is intended to enhance the movement of people and goods between the two countries and to improve data and intelligence sharing between their governments.

First responder

Disasters strike Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago has been hit by a series of natural disasters, first by an earthquake and then by torrential rain which caused flooding and landslides. The devastation has left thousands stranded and inundated parts of the country. The Red Cross assisted in the aftermath and Caribbean states and the UN have offered aid. The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States says it will share disaster-mitigation strategies with the island nation’s government.

Ebola containment program suspended

Rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s northeastern region of Beni have stepped up attacks at the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak there, killing 15 civilians and abducting children. Those killed included two health workers who were trying to contain the outbreak. That led the World Health Organization to immediately suspend its activities, which have helped stop the spread of Ebola to other parts of the country. Since the first case was reported in August, 202 cases of Ebola have been confirmed and 118 fatalities have been registered by the health authorities. The WHO has warned that the number of new cases is set to more than double, and will rise even further with the suspension of the vaccination program.

Typhoon strengthens

A typhoon in the Pacific may become a Category 4 or Category 5 storm. A warning has been posted in Guam and citizens in the Northern Mariana Islands are being told to prepare for Typhoon Yutu, which is expected to pass near the islands today. The area was hit by Typhoon Mangkhut in September.

The five-domains update

Sea state

The European Union Naval Force (EU NAVFOR) and the People’s Liberation Army Navy conducted the first joint exercise at China’s base in Djibouti. The medical evacuation exercise followed EU NAVFOR’s operational commander’s visit to the base in August and a cross-decking exercise between the two navies earlier this year. Western militaries have rarely been invited onto the Djibouti base and this latest exercise may signal growing cooperation on countering piracy in the region. This article in The Diplomat provides useful strategic analysis.

A US Navy research vessel, the Thomas G. Thompson, docked in Taiwan’s southern port of Kaohsiung last week to refuel and make crew changes. The ship’s second visit to Taiwan comes at a time of heightened tensions between the US and China over arms sales and trade tariffs. China, which opposes any military or government contact between the US and Taiwan, condemned the visit. Beijing also demanded that the US cancel the sale of spare parts and related support for Taiwan’s US-made F-16 fighter jets and other military aircraft.

Italy has gifted the Libyan Navy the patrol boat Fezzan as part of the two countries’ joint cooperation to combat illegal immigration and human trafficking. Italy announced provision of the vessel in July to enhance Libya’s coastal monitoring capabilities. A second boat is expected to arrive next month as part of an agreement to supply Libya with 12 patrol vessels.

Flight path

Australia’s Defence Department announced that two of its F-35s have ‘suspect hydraulic fuel tubes’ but the seven other joint strike fighters in its fleet have been cleared. The UK also revealed that five of its F-35s need repairs. The global fleet was grounded after a crash in September revealed potentially faulty fuel tubes. The F-35 program office estimates that ‘more than 80% of operational F-35s have been cleared’.

The UK tested an experimental landing technique for its F-35B during flight trials on HMS Queen Elizabeth. Instead of conducting a vertical landing, which is standard for the F-35B, a test pilot conducted a slower, rolling landing—watch a demonstration here. The new technique allows the jets to land with heavier loads on a carrier that lacks the arresting gear needed for normal landings. The UK is the first country to use the manoeuvre, which has been in development for 17 years.

Two pilots died during Clear Sky 2018 in Ukraine, just days before the military exercise finished. US pilot Colonel Seth Nehring and Ukrainian pilot Colonel Ivan Petrenko died on Wednesday when a Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-27 crashed during a training flight. The cause is being investigated. The exercise, which involved personnel from nine nations and focused on interoperability, wrapped up on Friday.

The last Italian BR-1150, a maritime patrol aircraft weighing almost 11,400 kilograms once disassembled, was airlifted from Practica di Mare air base to its new home at the Italian Air Force Museum northwest of Rome.

Rapid fire

Australian military veterans are having difficulty finding employment after discharge. Some veterans attribute their lack of success with potential employers to the popular perception that post-traumatic stress disorder is linked with military service. According to a report by research firm Conrad Liveris, commissioned by the WA opposition, the veteran unemployment rate in Western Australia exceeds 30%. Defence disputes that figure, producing its own estimate of 8% unemployed veterans in the state.  The report found that misunderstandings and negative assumptions made about veterans are affecting their employability.

The Australian Army may soon consider arming drones to counter the increasing use of weaponised drones by adversaries. The head of the army’s unmanned aerial systems program, Lieutenant Colonel Keirin Joyce, told the ABC that while the idea is still being debated, if approved, it could save the lives of countless Australian soldiers on future battlefields.

A major US – South Korea military exercise has been suspended for the third time this year in a bid to encourage North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. The cancellation comes after a meeting between the US defence secretary and defence ministers from South Korea and Japan during the ASEAN defence ministers’ meeting in Singapore. The Pentagon says that the suspension of Vigilant Ace will enable the diplomatic process to continue and give North Korea the opportunity to prove that it’s serious about denuclearisation.

Zero gravity

China has announced plans to launch an ‘artificial moon’ by 2020. The project involves deploying orbital mirrors from China’s southwestern Sichuan province to reflect sunlight back to earth. The ‘illumination satellites’ would provide light eight times brighter than the moon, replacing streetlamps and saving an estimated A$240 million in electricity costs each year. The technology would also remain active during natural disasters and blackouts. However, concerns have been raised over potential military applications of the technology.

A UK Ministry of Defence report warns that space stations could launch nuclear attacks on earth by 2050. The Future starts today report was developed over two years by the MoD’s think tank, the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre. It identifies several primary threats to the UK’s national security that are applicable globally and highlights how technological advancements fuel the prospects of space militarisation.

A large piece of space debris was found in a California walnut orchard last week. Officials from Vandenberg Air Force Base said it was likely to be a fuel tank from Iridium 70—a defunct satellite owned by US-based mobile communications company Iridium. The satellite was launched in 1998 and fell out of orbit on 10 October. The debris highlights some implications of failing to address the problem of space junk.

Wired watchtower

The Nigerian Army Cyber Warfare Command was launched last week. The new corps is the first of its kind in Africa and will focus on preventing and countering identity theft and cyberattacks. Army chief of staff Lieutenant-General Tukur Buratai, who opened the command, also acknowledged that there had been complaints about soldiers’ unprofessional behaviour and launched an app allowing citizens to anonymously submit complaints and information directly to the Nigerian Army.

The Czech Security Intelligence Service intervened in a Hezbollah malware campaign targeting men in the Middle East and in Central and Eastern Europe. The campaign used servers located in the Czech Republic to engage targets via Facebook and convince them to download a mobile app infected with spyware, enabling operatives to access the phone’s content. Hezbollah has been increasing its exploitation of the cyber domain in recent years.

Researchers in the US have discovered potentially critical vulnerabilities in maritime-related technologies produced by Auto-Maskin, a Norwegian company that is a leading equipment provider for companies such as Cummins, Caterpillar, Yanmar and Scania. The researchers found that Auto-Maskin’s Marine Pro field devices and Marine Pro Observer app for Android could be exploited by an attacker, who could then gain access to control systems and do anything including turning a vessel’s engines on or off, changing firmware, and installing a back door or other malware.

ASPI suggests

The world

Amid the fallout over the alleged murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, Middle East Eye has obtained gruesome details via a leaked audio recording, purportedly of the killing. BuzzFeed reports that think tanks in Washington are debating whether to return Saudi donations and funding, and CNN has the names of those who have—and haven’t—chosen to boycott the Saudi government’s ‘Future Investment Initiative’ conference next week.

Jumping to Eastern Europe: Crimea is dealing with the aftermath of Wednesday’s school shooting in Kerch. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has the details. The BBC explains why the split in the Orthodox Church, following the Constantinople Patriarchate’s recognition of the Ukrainian Orthodox church’s independence, matters for stability in the region.

Indonesia is usually at the fore in rhetoric about Australia’s strategic outlook, but as Evan Laksmana argues, the reality of the Indonesian–Australian security partnership is different. He also has a longer piece outlining steps Canberra should take to ramp up the relationship, with a focus on maritime security. Speaking of which, RAND has laid out the challenges and opportunities presented by Indonesia’s maritime security situation. CSIS, meanwhile, outlines Indonesia’s potential to be a major player in the global system and the need for greater bilateral ties with the US.

Also from CSIS, a new report puts forward three proposals to deescalate and control the situation in the South China Sea, something which could be timely as tensions there continue to rise. The Diplomat reacts to recent US–China confrontations and explains how Australia’s approach could change as a result of the Liberal leadership spill. VOA investigates Japan’s growing pressure on China in the region after a submarine, helicopter carrier and two destroyers conducted military drills throughout the SCS. Writing in The National Interest, Mark Valencia takes a swipe at hawkish analysts and claims that proposals for the US to increase pressure on China in the SCS will only ‘goad’ the country into war.

Sticking with China, Chatham House believes there’s more to the story of Beijing launching its first indigenous ice breaker, which is ostensibly designed for scientific research. Foreign Policy claims that after some exceptional accomplishments over the past 40 years, China’s leadership may now be taking the country backward. And Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian asks whether the detention of Interpol chief Meng Hongwei will have repercussions for future Chinese leadership of international organisations.

The bubonic plague, Spanish flu, Ebola and … ? Few doubt the likelihood of another global pandemic and Vox reveals just how unprepared the world is to fight one. Gabrielle Fitzgerald provides some important steps to increase preparedness for such an event, and the BBC looks into the likelihood of an outbreak actually occurring. And in the wake of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, ABC Science explores what life could be like in Australia’s north in a hotter 2040.

And finally, Stephen Hawking’s posthumously published book Brief answers to the big questions dives into artificial intelligence, black holes and time travel, among other topics. Wired has an excerpt on how Hawkings’ life was shaped by technology and his belief that information technology will shape the future. The Guardian discusses Anna Burns’s Man Booker prize win for her timely novel Milkman. And for something completely different, see here.

Tech geek

Space analyst Namrata Goswami considers China’s ‘space dream’, which aims to create a Chinese-led system that challenges US dominance in space. Goswami argues that China wants to write the rules for the future space order, including establishing Chinese-managed zones (implying control of astropolitical terrain, such as the moon) and Chinese-led adjudication courts to settle space disputes.

The Chinese navy’s air force (PLAN-AF) has started deploying a new bomber, the H-6J. It’s designed as an updated anti-ship missile platform and can carry three times as many YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles as the H-6G aircraft it’s replacing. China may also be planning to reveal the H-20 long-range bomber in 2019. With a stealthy design that invites comparison with the US B-2A Spirit and B-21 Raider, the new bomber will transform China’s long-range airpower and offer the prospect of China establishing a true nuclear triad.

Part of preparing for war is thinking about how and where it might be fought. RAND has a great article by Michael Spirtas on whether the US is ready for war with Russia or China. And in a move reminiscent of Tom Clancy’s 1986 novel Red storm rising, the US Marine Corps is practising to take back Iceland from Russian occupation in the next war.

Finally, get ready for mind control of drones. DARPA is testing a neural implant that one day will allow a human to control unmanned aerial vehicles through thought alone. That could have profound implications for the future of airpower, raising the prospect of an F-35 pilot communicating with unmanned wingmen through a neural, rather than digital, link.

This week in history

The Black Power salute during the 1968 Olympics to protest racial inequality in the US sparked international outcry this week 50 years ago. The Guardian has an explainer video that also draws parallels to today, while Yahoo! Sports looks at the gesture’s impact on Australian sprinter Peter Norman’s life.

Multimedia

Watch Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon chairing a discussion on political change and security challenges in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as the Congolese prepare to head to the polls after a two-year delay [1:17:38]. And see this photo series by Al-Jazeera for a glimpse of what it’s like to be a child soldier or a young woman living in the DRC.

Podcasts

Get the latest on Brexit and whether it should (or can) be stopped, the reopening of the Jordan–Syria border and the Hong Kong protests in this episode of Monocle’s The Briefing. [29:45]

The Atlantik-Brücke’s new podcast On the Record features Julianne Smith, former deputy national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden. She shares her opinions on the transatlantic alliance and why so many Americans support Trump and his foreign policy. [25:54]

The DiploPod brings us an update from the Balkans where Serbia and Kosovo are trying to end their century-old dispute. Jen Psaki talks to Bekim Çollaku, chief of staff to Kosovar President Hashim Thaçi, and Carnegie’s Judy Dempsey. [31:50]

Events

Canberra, 22 October, 6–7 pm, AIIA: ‘Ukraine’s perception of world security today’ with Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze. Tickets here ($10).

Canberra, 24 October, 5–6.15 pm, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific: ‘Threat of trade wars and financial crises: Asia’s response’. Register here.

Sydney, 24 October, 6–7.30 pm, University of Sydney and Sydney Environment Institute: ‘Why island nations’ isolation on the climate change threat must end’. Free registration.