Tag Archive for: General

ASPI suggests

The world

Devastation struck Christchurch last Friday when a right-wing terrorist attacked two mosques during prayers, killing 50 people and wounding many more. The Strategist covers all angles of the attack, including how New Zealand can learn from Australia’s gun control laws, how algorithms fail to stop the live-streaming of terror, the community response to the attack, and this touching piece by Brendan Nicholson. Writing for Vox, Vianna Goodwin shares the story of her experiences as a practising Muslim living in America, comparing them to the tragedy in New Zealand, and argues that Islamophobia is becoming normalised.

CSIS looks further into right-wing extremism, providing some possible ways to stop the spread of this form of terrorism, and the Washington Post claims that, unlike intelligence-sharing agreements between the US and its allies (including Australia) for international terrorism, no such agreement is in place for domestic terrorist organisations. And further afield, there’s been some political turmoil between the Anzac nations and Turkey following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dark remarks comparing Gallipoli and the Christchurch attack. Both New Zealand and Australia have responded to those remarks.

As Yemen struggles through the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, Australia continues to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose involvement could best be described as legally ambiguous. Susan Hutchinson notes that, while Australian defence exports are important for research and development, sales must abide by the international arms control framework. Lobe Log, meanwhile, looks at Yemen’s water scarcity and how it will affect humanitarian efforts in the war-torn country.

Now that the dust from last month’s India–Pakistan cross-border skirmishes is beginning to settle, analysts are taking stock of its larger implications. This Carnegie Endowment long read provides a thorough analysis of the post-crisis situation and argues that Pakistan’s support for terror outfits remains the most destabilising influence in South Asia. Sushant Sareen wrote a scathing piece, making a case for India to assert itself after China blocked Pakistani militant Masood Azhar’s designation as a ‘global terrorist’ for the fourth time at the UN last week. This article in The Print, which looks at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign policy failures, makes for a compelling read.

The Williams Foundation has released the details of new medium- to long-range stealth bombers being developed by China, raising suspicions about the Chinese state’s intent in the region. And while US President Donald Trump now says his China tariffs won’t be going anywhere soon, see this CSIS panel discussion on the rise of China, the leadership of Xi Jinping and China’s growing technological leadership [skip to 21:35 for the beginning]. And see Foreign Policy for the reasons behind Trump’s push to get NATO countries to boost military infrastructure across Europe.

Xi is in Italy after its decision to join the Belt and Road Initiative, a major cause for consternation for some. This Project Syndicate article shows exactly why. And the Guardian places the Brexit phenomenon in the larger context of Britain’s dysfunctional politics.

The Huawei debate in Europe took another turn this week as Germany announced it would go ahead with plans to allow the Chinese telecommunications giant to bid for contracts to build the nation’s 5G network, despite pressure from the US to ban it. Vox published a good backgrounder explaining the problem. This piece from Deutsche Welle describes Germany’s ‘complicated’ relationship with Huawei and talks about the European nation’s deep trading links to China.

And finally, adding a bit of festive cheer to your weekend, this South China Morning Post piece explains the significance of Holi, which millions of Indians are celebrating this week.

Tech geek

A major new story highlights the poor readiness levels of the US Navy’s F-35C and US Marine Corps’ F-35B. Based on the 2018 Director of Operational Test and Evaluation report released in January, the F-35C has only 2% operational readiness and the F-35B’s readiness is less than 15%. The problem lies with the F-35’s ‘IT backbone’, the autonomic logistics information system, which has failed to perform effectively.

The ageing US fighter fleet is prompting greater interest in developing ‘4++’ versions of the F-16 (the F-16 Block 70 and a new concept called the F-21), an F-15 replacement called the F-15EX, and a Block III F/A-18 E/F. The proposed F-15EX could also take on the role of prompt strike by carrying hypersonic standoff missiles, which are unlikely to fit inside the F-35A’s internal weapons bay.

In a blast from the past, the Pentagon is taking a page from Ronald Reagan’s ‘Star Wars’ playbook with new efforts to test a space-based neutral particle beam for missile defence by 2023.

Late last year, NATO forces conducting exercises off Norway got more than they had planned for when their access to GPS was jammed. Norway now claims it has proof that Russia was responsible for the jamming, in what’s been seen as a hostile act.

Finally, China is working on ‘magnetised plasma artillery’ that can fire shells at speeds higher than Mach 6. They could potentially be installed on tanks and have a range of up to 100 kilometres. If realised, the weapon could radically change the shape of armoured warfare.

This week in history

The Iraq War began on 20 March 2003 when, after no declaration of war, the US and its allies invaded Iraq. TRT World has a video describing the war’s legacy from the perspectives of three Iraqis who lived through it. [3:32]

Multimedia

See this photo series by Al Jazeera for a look into the drought impacting millions in the Horn of Africa.

This DW documentary investigates the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and the events that caused it. [28:24]

Podcasts

Pod Save the World starts by talking about the Christchurch attack before moving onto online radicalisation and Huawei. [50:06]

Former CIA director David Petraeus speaks with former acting CIA director Michael Morell in Intelligence Matters about strategic leadership and the biggest issues in US foreign policy. [41:24]

This week on Hard Talk, the World Bank’s interim president, Kristalina Georgieva, confronts the criticism surrounding the bank’s roles, values and methods. [23:59]

Events

Brisbane, 26 March, 6–7.30 pm, AIIA: ‘Brexit: deal or no deal—facts, fallout and future’. Register here. ($15)

Canberra, 27 March, 6–7 pm, ANU: ‘US foreign policy in the 2020 presidential race, and where to after Trump?’ More information here.

Melbourne, 28 March, 5.30–6.30 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Why the ‘Indo-Pacific’?’ Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

America’s mighty defence force might not be as mighty as you think. President Donald Trump is struggling to fill key positions at the Pentagon, especially following the withdrawal of former defence secretary Jim Mattis, according to Foreign Policy. And while the Pentagon lies empty, see Task and Purpose for the details on how US forces are defeated again and again in wargaming exercises against China and Russia, a problem with a US$24 billion fix. With all that happening, Forbes and War is Boring both claim Trump’s US$750 billion 2020 defence budget could fall within Congress’s crosshairs. For the nitty gritty on that budget, see Defense News.

In the latest development in a week of turmoil in the UK, MPs voted for an extension to the 29 March Brexit deadline. The vote came after politicians rejected a ‘no deal’ exit from the EU after also rejecting Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan earlier in the week. An extension could delay Brexit until 30 June, but only if May’s already rejected deal gets the backing of parliament next week. If that fails, which looks likely, May will have to seek a longer delay.

And so what happens next? According to one Tory MP who spoke to the Guardian’s Marina Hyde, ‘F—k knows’. If Brexit has you feeling confused or frustrated, Hyde’s column is the perfect antidote (comparisons of May’s efforts to the Fast and the Furious movies come free).

Work to manage the security and trade ramifications of Brexit is already underway in areas you might not expect. The House of Commons Library has produced analysis on a number of functions that are set to be impacted after Brexit occurs, including explaining why the Royal Navy has increased its offshore patrol capabilities to ‘bolster the UK’s ability to protect our fishing fleet’.

Some great analysis of Russia has emerged this week. Strategy Bridge kicks it off with a great piece on the near and long-term threats as Russia attempts to reshape its identity and place in the world. ‘The Kremlin Playbook 2’, released by CSIS, illustrates Russia’s malign influence across Europe, showing that it’s essentially attempting to destroy democratic systems from within as it exploits weaknesses in key markets and institutions. Russia also stands between the US–Turkey relationship, claims War on the Rocks, as Ankara’s decision to purchase the S-400 surface-to-air missile system strains its alliance with Washington.

How does spraying masses of aerosols into the earth’s atmosphere as a way of stopping climate change sound to you? Normally an unspoken theory in the scientific world, Vox has investigated it further and claims that more research into geoengineering is needed. This comes as National Geographic explains that, out of 5.2 million possible climate futures studied by scientists, only a few are acceptable and that humans must cease all carbon emissions by 2030 to remain below a catastrophic 2°C warming by 2100. Which leads us to this ASPI special report by Robert Glasser which focuses on how climate change will be Australia’s biggest security concern in the new Era of Disasters.

For the fourth time, China has blocked attempts at the UN Security Council to label the Pakistan-based head of Jaish-e-Mohammad, Masood Azhar, as a terrorist. JeM was behind the Pulwama terrorist attack, which was the catalyst for a major escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan. Writing in The National Interest, Mohammed Ayoob argues that the two countries are inching towards a war that could turn nuclear. Tanvi Madan outlines China’s considerations in the lead-up to its decision to once again support its ‘all-weather ally’.

Tech geek

For more on America’s wargaming, here’s a great article in Breaking Defense on the growing risk of US defeat in a war against Russia and China. Referring to a RAND study, it argues that continuing to acquire traditional capability is a path to strategic defeat, and highlights a shortage of missile capability and the vulnerability of US and allied systems to adversary long-range missiles.

With that in mind, The National Interest considers the US Air Force’s future—better F-22s, B-52s and hypersonic weapons. And the US Navy Institute News highlights the need for armed unmanned aircraft on carriers. Also Defence Connect did two live webcasts from the Australian International Airshow on future airpower. Register here to watch both.

Future war between major powers is also going to have a hybrid dimension, and there’s a good analysis in Atlantic Community on how Russian approaches to hybrid war could be strengthened by Brexit.

Defence Connect is reporting that a future Labor government would look to undertake a review of the future submarine project to ensure that it’s viable and managed so as to avoid a capability gap.

Finally, it’s never too soon to be thinking starships, and NASA looks at this issue in an interesting report on how to get to Alpha Centauri and beyond.  In Forbes there’s an article on the return of the space-based solar power station concept to vogue, and how it could transform global energy markets. NASA also finally seems to have a plan to get humans back on the moon by 2028.

This week in history

On the Ides of March, in 44 BC, Julius Caesar was assassinated, shaking the very pillars of Rome, ending the Republic and ultimately leading to the adoption of the Imperial system. Vox presents six common myths about Caesar’s assassination. Also, a shout out to a relatively important person. Albert Einstein was born in this week in 1879.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera has a must-watch series of seven documentaries on inspiring Middle Eastern women.

This interactive map by Vaccines Work illustrates the huge volume of preventable disease outbreaks across the world.

Chatham House director Dr Robin Niblett sits down to discuss Brexit and what future relations look like between the UK and the EU. [3:39]

Podcasts

ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money brings you a special edition focusing on the Avalon Airshow. [1:04.01]

Hearing from a North Korean defector is a rare occurrence, but Al Jazeera interviews Jihyun Park, who offers a firsthand account of life under the Kim regime. [22:44]

Events

Perth, 19 March, 6–8 pm: ‘Report launch: Australia’s second sea’ with the Honourable Kim Beazley AC and Dr David Brewster. Register here.

Sydney, 20 March, 1–2.30 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Uncertainty and insecurity in the fifth domain of warfare’. Tickets here.

Melbourne, 21 March, 6–7.30 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Surveillance, trust and democracy’. Book here.

ASPI suggests: International Women’s Day special

For International Women’s Day, ASPI suggests some thought-provoking reads and updates on women on the front lines of peace and security. We also offer a curated list of podcasts to fill your weekend and an award-winning documentary for your Saturday night.

This year’s IWD theme is #balanceforbetter. Have a look at 25 women changing the balance in international affairs with this list of young women to watch. ASPI’s Aakriti Bachhawat, Hannah Smith and Elise Thomas are on the list.

There are some great reads critiquing International Women’s Day. This ABC piece criticises the commercialism and resulting tokenism of IWD, reminding us how far the day has shifted from its revolutionary roots. This article highlights how far Australia still has to go to achieve gender parity, saying: ‘Women don’t need a pedestal for a single day, they need equality. Every day.’ These are important thoughts to keep in mind.

The world

New America has released The ‘consensual straitjacket’: four decades of women in nuclear security, which gives us a look into the experiences of women in nuclear security, arms control and non-proliferation policy. Catherine Killough, a nuclear policy analyst, discusses the second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

In light of the National People’s Congress in China, a woman’s right to choose is in focus as the declining birth rate there is expected to be on the agenda. Foreign Policy has published an interesting piece examining China’s current policy, arguing that even though the ‘one-child policy’ has been axed, the government still exerts control over wombs. Al Jazeera followed one woman’s quest to influence the situation and allow single women in China to access sperm donation.

On Thursday, the US State Department awarded the 2019 International Women of Courage Award to 10 recipients from around the world, including two amazing women fighting for the rights of the women of Myanmar, both inside and outside the country. Peace activist Naw K’nyaw Paw accepted the award on behalf of the Karen Women’s Organization, an ethnic women’s group with over 60,000 members. For more than 30 years, they have been fighting for the rights of ethnic minority women in Myanmar, including speaking out against the military and standing up for victims of sexual and gender-based violence.

Across the border in the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, fellow award recipient Razia Sultana has been fighting to make Rohingya women’s voices heard. She has interviewed hundreds of Rohingya refugee women and girls and published two reports, Witness to horror and Rape by command, documenting systematic sexual violence by Burmese security forces against the Rohingya.

Meanwhile, Chechnya appears to be presenting itself as an unexpected sanctuary for at least some women fleeing the territorial defeat of Islamic State. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, unlike some of his Western counterparts, is actively lobbying for the repatriation of women from Syria to Chechnya. The Chechen strongman is not exactly known for respecting either human rights or the rights of women, however, and his motives remain something of a mystery. Women fleeing from Chechnya and the North Caucasus more broadly face an uncertain future as they seek asylum in Poland.

Human Rights Watch is calling for protection to be provided to a planned IWD event in Ukraine. In previous years, far-right groups verbally and physically attacked people at the event. Last year, organiser Vitalina Koval suffered chemical burns after paint was thrown in her face by members of Karpatska Sich, a group also responsible for a range of other hate crimes against Roma and LGBT communities.

If you’re still looking for a present to celebrate International Women’s Day, The Oxford handbook of women, peace, and security was published last month. Its 67 chapters are full of cutting-edge and thought-provoking research and will be essential reading for peace practitioners and security nerds alike.

This week in history

On 3 March 1913, the first women’s suffrage parade in the United States took place in Washington DC. Almost 8,000 women marched and the parade was a catalyst for the women’s suffrage movement in the US. Seven years later, in 1920, American women received the right to vote.

Multimedia

Last week Period. End of sentence won the Academy Award for best short documentary. The film highlights the stigma related to menstruation in India and follows the story of a group of girls and women who have a pad vending machine installed in their village. The 25-minute film is well worth a watch and can be found on Netflix. In this interesting piece, Pallavi Pundir argues that the film is ‘unapologetically Western in its approach’ and ‘layered with a uni-dimensional lens, devoid of any understanding of the “menstrual politics” that have manifested in the social, religious and cultural structures of the country over the last few years’.

Podcasts

The latest episode of Seeking Peace explores the peace talks that ended the Troubles in Northern Ireland and hears from a young peace activist in Yemen.

Just in time for a weekend podcast binge, journalist Katy Cowan published this list of 13 insightful podcasts on women, feminism and gender equality. Number one (The Guilty Feminist) is sure to make you laugh!

Events

Later this month, ASPI’s Women in Defence and Security Network will be hosting speed mentoring evenings in Canberra on 14 March and Perth on 28 March. Make sure to book in early!

ASPI suggests

The world

There were just a few major events causing hiccups around the world this week. To kick off, we saw major developments in the India–Pakistan confrontation. The New York Times has a great backgrounder on why India and Pakistan continue to fight over Kashmir, while Mohammed Ayoob writes in The Strategist that the action taken by both sides could quickly snowball into something much more severe. See CSIS’s Critical Questions for an interview with Richard Rossow on the issue, including his thoughts on what stake the US has in the conflict and what the chances of further escalation are.

Another big event was, of course, the Trump–Kim summit in Hanoi, which got cut short late on Thursday. VOA has the details, while the New York Times sees each side pointing a finger at the other over the summit’s failure to produce a deal. For a great read on the ‘changing face of North Korea’, see Foreign Policy. For now, however, the real outcomes of the summit remain un(nu)clear.

Russia deserves a mention after a state-owned television program revealed the locations its nuclear forces would target in the event of a nuclear conflict with the US. It seems the cold-war mentality is rife in Russia this week, as the St Petersburg cathedral choir sang a ballad about dropping nuclear bombs on America. The New York Times has the analysis on this, saying it comes in response to the US withdrawing from the INF Treaty. War on the Rocks describes the measures being used by Russia to undermine Europe and increase its own influence, and Chatham House has a presentation by Keir Giles on why Russia constantly challenges the West.

Those following the Brexit mayhem will know there’s now less than a month until Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. In a situation starting to look more and more like the Seven Network’s Deal or No Deal, Brookings looks into the options Prime Minister Theresa May has left, along with what to expect next. Writing for Bloomberg, Therese Raphael seems to think that May’s Brexit deal is starting to catch on after parliament told her on Thursday to stay her course.

And the final hiccup of this week’s ‘Suggests’ is on one of our favourite topics, the South China Sea. As the US and China continue to butt heads and uncertainty remains about America’s commitment to its allies in the region, Nikkei Asian Review believes Japan can fill the security gap that’s forming throughout Southeast Asia and in the South China Sea. See The National Interest for a look at how France is following Britain’s lead and sending its only aircraft carrier to Asia, demonstrating its ambition to remain a major player in the area. And finally, China may be looking to continue its expansion in the region: the ABC outlines Beijing’s interest in buying a bankrupt port in the Philippines in a strategic location in the South China Sea.

For some extra reads, see the Washington Post for analysis of why a US intervention in Venezuela could turn it into the ‘Libya of the Caribbean’. And the ABC dives into the concept of US nuclear deterrence in Australia.

Tech geek

We begin with what is one of the most important stories to be reported on by tech geek so far. Boeing unveiled the ‘Loyal Wingman’ unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) on Wednesday at the 2019 Australian International Airshow at Avalon. Under the project title ‘Boeing Airpower Teaming System’, the UCAV is designed to escort manned aircraft, protect those aircraft from threats and project power while allowing the manned platform to avoid unnecessary risk.

The Loyal Wingman is unique in that is fully designed and built in Australia—the first local aircraft project since the CAC Boomerang in 1942. This represents a major milestone for the Australian defence industry as it potentially will be open for export to Five Eyes partners and other key allies.

The Wingman will be initially designed for ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and electronic-warfare missions, but will also have a weapons bay that can carry missiles and bombs. It will have a 3,700-kilometre range, giving it comparable reach to the retired F-111C. Its first flight is expected in 2020, and it will be a number of years before the platform enters RAAF service. Look for a Strategist article on this unique capability coming soon.

Avalon also featured impressive flying displays by the RAAF’s F-35A (the first two of a total of 72 aircraft arrived in Australia in December last year), as well as the USAF F-22 Raptor.

Two other capabilities caught tech geek’s eye at the airshow. The first was the Airbus Industry Zephyr high-altitude pseudo-satellite, which is a solar-electric UAV that can remain on station for months to undertake surveillance tasks. Second was a unique space surveillance capability called ‘Astrosite’ developed by the University of Western Sydney and based on neuromorphic sensors.

This week in history

NATO undertook its first combat engagement on 28 February 1994, almost 45 years after it was established. On that day, US fighter jets shot down four Serbian fighters in violation of Bosnia’s no-fly zone. For a full list of NATO operations, see NATO’s website.

Multimedia

See this photo series by Al Jazeera for an insight into the emotional reactions in India to the country’s air raids in Pakistan.

Military and civilian aircraft from all over the world are at the Avalon airshow. Check out photos of their flying displays from earlier this week here and look out for more as the show continues this weekend.

Podcasts

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran recorded a great podcast discussing the significance of India’s ‘non-military pre-emptive strikes’ in Pakistan and their implications for security dynamics in South Asia. [19:25]

War on the Rocks has a special episode on what comes after the ‘end of the caliphate’ with a stacked lineup of panelists with firsthand experience in the war against Islamic State and terrorism. [59:27]

Events

Sydney, 6 March, 7–8.15 pm, University of New South Wales: ‘Writing war: Kassem Eid and Mohammed Hanif’. Tickets here ($10).

Canberra, 8 March, 1.30–2.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘2019 International Women’s Day lecture’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Three of Australia’s major political parties and the parliament have been hacked by a ‘sophisticated state actor’. For the details see the New York Times. Writing in The Strategist, Peter Jennings outlines why Beijing is the prime suspect and Danielle Cave and Tom Uren investigate why someone would want to hack the political parties in the first place. The ABC, with ASPI’s Elise Thomas, delves into the cybersecurity dangers of politicians and their staffers taking work home to unsecure networks.

China has completed a month of military drills in the South China Sea, and in the last week the US has conducted freedom-of-navigation patrols and joint military drills in the area. Defense One takes a look at what might happen next in the contested waters and China–US competition in part 2 of a podcast series [45:28]. In The Diplomat Kerry Brown writes that sending the UK’s biggest warship, HMS Queen Elizabeth, to the South China Sea will be seen as ‘empty posturing’ by China, James R. Holmes disagrees, arguing that the return of the Royal Navy to Asia can guarantee the freedom of the seas.

The background and legality (or otherwise) of US President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency in a last-ditch effort to salvage his border wall is covered well in this Vox article. An opinion piece in Bloomberg sets the record straight on some of the myths surrounding Trump’s announcement, and Politico published the results of a poll on the proposed wall, which shows that fewer than 4 in 10 people support its construction.

Over in Europe, the German Marshall Fund has analysed Chancellor Angela Merkel’s speech from last week’s Munich Security Conference, discussing the impact the US is having on the liberal international order and the need for Germany to stand up to protect it. Carnegie Europe provides a great read on the biggest threats facing Eastern Europe, which—despite what you might expect—aren’t necessarily Russian aggression. And Zeit Online has an unsettling account of the death of a 51-year-old man during the Euromaidan revolution in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv five years ago.

If you’ve been following the debate surrounding Briton Shamima Begum, who joined the Islamic State group in Syria four years ago when she was 15, you’ll find this New York Times piece on women fighters in IS compelling. The BBC published an article (with a link to an interview with Begum) on how the UK manages the ‘deradicalisation’ of such individuals. Isaac Kfir’s Strategist piece highlighting the relevance of the controversy to Australia’s foreign fighters is a must-read.

The terrorist attack on Indian law-enforcement personnel in Kashmir by a Pakistan-based terror outfit generated a wave of commentary looking at what New Delhi should do next. For a comprehensive account of the factors underlying the tragedy and response options for India, Pakistan and other parties, read this brilliant piece from War on the Rocks. Kanchan Gupta wrote a scathing commentary on India’s lack of a coherent Pakistan policy and an Indian Express article highlights the economic repercussions of the Pulwama attack for Pakistan.

In other news, Australia finally has a US ambassador. Trump’s nominee, Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr, was sworn in this week.

Tech geek

A key development this week in relation to the proposed US Space Force was Trump’s signing of Space Policy Directive 4, which formally creates a new military service for space. It will reside within the US Air Force, in the same way the US Marine Corps sits within the US Navy, and as such is an interim step towards the president’s preferred approach of a fully independent space force. CSIS has a great analysis on what it all means. One of the key drivers for the space force concept is the growing threat posed by Chinese and Russian anti-satellite weapons.

China is looking to deploy a sixth-generation fighter as early as 2035, even though it’s just beginning to deploy its fifth-generation J-20, and is yet to deploy the FC-31. A report in the Global Times—a noted mouthpiece of the Chinese government—makes the case for entering the ‘global race’ for a sixth-generation fighter.

If China is having some difficulties with its F-35 lookalike (the FC-31), the same can’t be said for the F-35 itself, which was the star of the recent Red Flag exercises in the US. Warrior Maven has a description of how the F-35A saved the day for fourth-generation aircraft.

And Lockheed Martin has proposed an advanced ‘F-21’ version of the F-16 for the Indian Air Force, as a ‘4.5’ generation platform.

Finally, Michael E. O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution has issued a thought-provoking report on the so-called revolution in military affairs of 2000–2020, suggesting that it wasn’t quite so revolutionary.

This week in history

On 19 February 1942, the Australian mainland came under attack for the first time in World War II.  Darwin was struck by 242 Japanese fighters and bombers in two raids that killed 235 people and injured up to 400 others. The attack came just 10 weeks after the same carrier group struck Pearl Harbor. For more information and access to original records, see the National Archives.

Multimedia

See Al Jazeera’s photo series on the ruined city of Mosul, Iraq. For a comparison, look back at these satellite images showing it before and after the war.

Inside Story looks into the extensive surveillance systems China uses to monitor its citizens and asks if it’s gone too far. [24:15]

Podcasts

Episode 13 of ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money discusses the cyberattacks on Australia’s parliament and political parties, the progress of the WPS agenda (with NATO Special Representative for Women, Peace and Security, Clare Hutchinson) and what to expect from the upcoming talks between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. [31:04]

Listen to Holocaust survivor John Dobai’s personal story of survival and the plight of Hungarian Jews during World War II from Britain’s National Archives. [1:11.40]

The Council on Foreign Affairs focuses on how gender parity and correcting the gender pay gap is necessary for growing economies. [58:35]

Events

Canberra, 25 February, 5–6.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘Brexit: implications for the EU and the UK’. Register here.

Melbourne, 28 February, 1–2 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Laying down the law: Americans as lawmakers in occupied Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

The US Congress has passed a compromise border security deal that will partially fund President Donald Trump’s border wall and avoid another government shutdown. But the US$1.4 billion deal falls well short of the US$5 billion Trump says is needed and, to make up the gap, he says he will declare a national emergency after the Republican congressional leadership dropped its opposition to the plan. The deal’s been described as a ‘massive capitulation’ and worse than one the president could have signed prior to the 35-day government shutdown that began in December over funding for the wall.

Susan Glasser writes in The New Yorker that Republicans have adopted a new strategy for following a president whose plans are unclear to them: praying. This Atlantic piece explains the full range of a president’s powers if a state of emergency is declared.

Staying in the western hemisphere, Colombian President Ivan Duque says his embattled Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro’s time is up and has called on the country’s military to shift its vital support to Juan Guaidó. Maduro claims the US has invented a humanitarian crisis and has blocked border crossings to stop American aid reaching Venezuela. This analysis examines why a US intervention along the lines of those in Panama and Grenada is unlikely to end the crisis.

Earlier this year, UN Dispatch highlighted the difficulties faced by UN peacekeeping forces as funding shortfalls begin to impact on deployments. Now, as mandates become more complex and political support is often patchy at best, the Cairo Review of Global Affairs has put forward ideas on how to reform UN peacekeeping operations. A prime example of this much-needed reform has come from the stabilisation mission to Mali, which started in 2013. Strategy Bridge details a prime example of this much-needed reform through the lens of the stabilisation mission to Mali, which has proved costly both in lives lost and financially. Further complications arise from China’s increasing involvement in peacekeeping operations. Beijing provides resources and capabilities to UN missions, but at what cost? Christoph Zuercher may have the answers.

Northeast Queensland has been ravaged by floods that are estimated to have killed between 300,000 and 500,000 cattle. See the Guardian for details and devastating images. ASPI’s Anthony Bergin in the APPS Policy Forum highlights the need for better disaster planning in Australia.

And for some extra reading, is Rwanda becoming the powerhouse of Africa? Foreign Brief seems to think so.

Tech geek

The Pentagon has released its first artificial intelligence strategy, highlighting the importance of AI in future national security and the economy. Wired provides an in-depth look at the strategy, and Forbes questions whether it will have the desired effect—to make the US the world leader in AI design and development. Brookings points out the lack of initiative displayed by the US government to meet the key requirements outlined in the strategy. And, finally, Foreign Policy identifies a peculiar fact missing from the document—the US military isn’t nearly as advanced in building autonomous weapons and robots as we thought, while Breaking Defense asks, is the US losing the AI race?

With the signing of the strategic partnership agreement between the Australian government and Naval Group, it’s a good time to think about the future of undersea warfare. The use of unmanned platforms has to be part of the future, and Boeing is thinking big with the Orca Extra-Large UUV, based on its Echo Voyager UUV.

Another interesting future capability, which unmanned underwater vehicles can support, is seabed warfare. CIMSEC has a fascinating two-part article on the topic (part 1 here and part 2 here).

Turning to the high frontier, the US Defense Intelligence Agency has released its 2019 Challenges to security in space report, which highlights Russian and Chinese counterspace (antisatellite) developments as a key challenge.

The Drive’s ‘Warzone’ has a disturbing report on how US adversaries have used cyber operations to hack the US Army’s new Stryker Dragoon armoured fighting vehicles, in particular, the vehicles’ data-sharing, navigation and digital communications systems.

This week in history

This week in 1990, Nelson Mandela was released from prison in South Africa after over 27 years of incarceration. Four years later, Mandela would become the first black president of South Africa and is accredited with ending apartheid in the country. See the BBC for the original footage of Mandela’s release.

Multimedia

It has been four decades since the Islamic revolution in Iran. See Al Jazeera’s photo series for a look into the celebrations that occurred around the country.

BBC has a series on old Cold War bunkers that can be found dotted all around the Albanian countryside.

You may have heard of the ‘whale jail’ in Russia in which 11 orcas and 87 beluga whales are being held captive to be transported to aquariums and, possibly, Chinese theme parks. See this short National Geographic video for more information. [2:23]

Podcasts

Not for the faint-hearted, this episode of SpyCast looks into the manhunt for Dr Josef Mengele, a Nazi war criminal known for conducting experiments on prisoners interned in concentration camps. [1:01.58]

After the guilty finding against Mexican drug lord Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán, this episode of Planet Money explains how US authorities sought to create a decoy bank to catch drug traffickers who needed to launder millions of dollars in cash every week. [19:35]

The Modern War Institute discusses virtual war, what it entails, how it has changed (and will change) conflict, and the necessity of changing how we think about war. [34:10]

Events

Melbourne, 18 February, 11.30 am – 12.30 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘China governs borderless threats: non-traditional security in the Mekong’. Book here.

Sydney, 21 February, 6–8.15 pm, University of Technology Sydney/Australian National University: ‘Climate update 2019’. Register here.

Sydney, 25 February, 12.30–1.30 pm, ASPI: ‘Frontier cyberwars and what’s next: in-conversation with the New York Times’s David E. Sanger’. More information here.

Canberra, 27 February, 6–7 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs – ACT, ‘The seven presidents of Indonesia’, talk by Dr Peter McCawley. Book here.

ASPI suggests

The world

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address stole the limelight this week. This short piece from CNN summarises the highlights, and the Financial Review argues that the speech was a sign of a president whose power is waning. A great opinion piece in the New York Times describes how a more conventional (and more articulate) president would address the asylum-seeker problem instead of using it an as issue to gain political mileage. Politico covered Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial ex-nominee Stacey Abrams’s powerful response to the presidential address. Also, on a lighter note, the event provided great fodder for meme-watchers and comics.

Climate change reared its ugly head again this week, especially the question of why more isn’t being done to mitigate it. The Financial Times brings you the latest devastating figures from 2018, while National Geographic looks into the significant and disturbing changes the world’s oceans will undergo if we continue along on the current path. And yet, despite the warning signs, DW reveals that Germany is likely to fall well short of its climate goals. Australia, too, is suffering the impacts of climate change with little progress to show—see The Strategist for details. Finally, this report by German Watch has the global rankings of climate change performance (FYI: to find Australia, you’ll have to look down).

As we look towards the elections for the European Parliament in May, many of the predictions made in this Forbes article at the end of 2018 are coming to pass. The European Council on Foreign Relations looks at the elections and the impacts the rise of populism could have on them and on Europe as a whole. Leading the charge against the current European order are Hungary and Poland. The German Marshall Fund takes a closer look at these nations and just how far their influence reaches.

It’s been almost two months since the Stockholm agreement was signed, calling for a ceasefire around the port city of Hodeidah in Yemen to allow vital humanitarian support to enter the country. While intermittent fighting continues around this area, Lawfare describes the larger proxy wars being waged all across the country by Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE. CNN has an investigative piece on how US weapons sold to Saudi Arabia are being transferred to Saudi-backed militias throughout the country, which has caused the Democrats in the US to advance a bill to end America’s support for Riyadh. Politico has the details.

Followers of Indian foreign policy might benefit from reading this scathing piece by Sushant Sareen on how New Delhi’s short-sighted policies vis-à-vis Afghanistan have led to a disastrous strategic reality for India. Plus, C. Christine Fair documents a journey along the 215-kilometre road linking Afghanistan and Iran, built by India, and explains how New Delhi’s investment in the Chahbahar port in Iran could be critical to saving Afghanistan from the Taliban abyss.

The National Interest interviewed 76 experts, including our very own senior analyst Malcolm Davis, to get their views on the possible outcomes of the proposed second summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un, and published the results here. The Carnegie Moscow Center has an interesting piece on the rise, fall, rise, and fall again, of Vladimir Putin.

If you want to read something that isn’t strictly defence or foreign policy, this New York Times long read on the challenges faced by working women in Japan is well worth your time (and rage).

Tech geek

On the tech side of the climate-change challenge, Singularity Hub offers an interesting analysis of geo-engineering. Read more on why it may be a solution—or potentially a risk—in dealing with climate change.

Boeing has proposed the F-15X Advanced Eagle fighter to replace the US Air Force’s ageing F-15C/D aircraft. The Drive has run two comprehensive analyses on this in its ‘Warzone’ section, the first examining what the F-15X is, and the second detailing the latest developments in this interesting project and how it addresses an urgent shortfall in fighter capability within USAF.

As the US shifts its focus towards defeating major-power threats, there’s an interesting article in the US Naval Institute’s Proceedings on why Australia and the US must prepare for high-end warfighting at sea.

Also with an Australian theme, this article in The Bridge by Major General Mick Ryan and DSTG’s Therese Keane on biotechnology and human augmentation, and what it may mean for national security, is a must-read.

France has practised an 11-hour-long nuclear strike mission with a Rafale fighter releasing an inert ASMP-A missile, while Germany has turned its back on the F-35 joint strike fighter as a replacement for the ageing Tornado strike aircraft.

The Diplomat has published an interview with China expert M. Taylor Fravel on how the PLA does military strategy ahead of the release of his major book. It also published some great analysis on what China’s submarine production might look like in the future.

This week in history

The 6th of February marked the 67th anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II’s accession to the throne. Queen Elizabeth has many accomplishments and records under her belt, including being the longest serving monarch of any nation in the world and having her portrait on the most foreign currencies. See this BBC series for a timeline of the Queen’s life in pictures.

Multimedia

Try this quick pop quiz to test your knowledge of countries and their native languages (no cheating!).

The BBC brings you a short program on Huawei, its claims that it would never spy for China and the world’s reaction to the company. [11:36]

To celebrate the Lunar New Year, see Al Jazeera’s photo series of pictures taken all over the world.

Podcasts

Listen to this podcast by the New York Times about what past State of the Union addresses portend for the future.  [26:34]

With thousands of Zimbabweans now in jail following the violent crackdown of President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Global Dispatches has the latest on what is happening in Zimbabwe. [30:05]

It’s hard to escape the fact that Donald Trump is having a significant impact on liberal internationalism. To find out just how much and what is in store for the liberal international order, have a listen to this Lawfare Podcast. [52:35]

Events

Canberra, 12 February, 12.30–1.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘Contagion and containment of violence: the case of sorcery accusations and related violence in Enga Province, Papua New Guinea’. Register here.

Melbourne, 12 February, 6.15–7.15 pm, Lowy Institute: ‘The year ahead’. Register here.

Sydney, 13 February, 6–7.30 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Truth, bullsh*t and weasel words: how post-truth politics is wrecking public discourse’ with Don Watson. Information here.

ASPI suggests

Welcome, dear readers, to our first ‘ASPI suggests’ for 2019.

The world

Fears of a no-deal Brexit continue to grip the UK. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt opened the year with a speech in Singapore filled with positive words about Britain’s future. Hunt harked back to Singapore’s separation from the Malaysian federation in 1965, pointing out that it didn’t make the island state ‘more insular but more open’. He added that the UK could learn much from Singapore, ‘not least the excellence of its education system, the long-term investment in infrastructure and a strategic approach to how a nation sustains competitive advantage in the world’.

The ramifications of Brexit will of course go well beyond Britain. Germany’s economy is beginning to slow, a situation potentially accelerated by Brexit fallout, according to Al Jazeera. Also, look back to Jacqueline Westermann’s ASPI special report for the impact Brexit may have on Australia and the need for us to ‘engage more with like-minded European partners such as Germany’.

China and America are currently holding bilateral talks in an attempt to end their six-month-long trade war. While there seems to be plenty of pessimism out there about the outcome—including in this piece from The Atlantic—Bloomberg explores a possible win–win scenario. The New York Times investigates how the US government shutdown has put pressure on President Donald Trump to secure a win in this round of negotiations.

Venezuela’s domestic crisis is quickly escalating into an international battle for influence, ideology and interests. Foreign Affairs published a great backgrounder. Anne Applebaum’s piece in the Washington Post provides an insightful analysis of how the crisis stems not only from Venezuela’s insatiable ‘socialism’ but also from the continued privatisation of state institutions. Amid fears of a US–Russia tussle over Venezuela, this New York Times article argues that Moscow doesn’t have the appetite to intervene in America’s backyard. Foreign Policy warns of the strategic costs of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil.

In December, Trump boldly announced the defeat of ISIS and plans for a rapid withdrawal of US troops from Syria. US officials, including intelligence chief Dan Coats, disagreed with Trump’s decision. War on the Rocks provides a long read on the lessons learned (or that should be learned) from this ‘mess’ and YaleGlobal explains what the US withdrawal means for Iran.

And as the US makes plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, this Washington Post piece highlights the significance of the recent talks between the US and Taliban representatives in Doha. An article in the New York Times warns that despite the successful negotiation of a draft peace agreement, a complete US withdrawal would plunge Afghanistan into chaos and pave the way for a Taliban resurgence. Regional stakeholders such as India are feeling constrained after not being allowed a seat at the table, according to the Times of India. The other clear winner of the US–Taliban peace deal is Pakistan and its terrorist strongholds, as this piece argues.

And for longer analytical reads, we recommend this RAND article which analyses Russia and China as US adversaries and argues that while Russia aims to disrupt and subvert the international order, China seeks to reshape, order and ultimately dominate it. For the latest on the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, see this report from Vox. Back home, this thread captures a lively debate on Australian defence and procurement strategy, picking up from articles in The Strategist and The Interpreter on whether Australia needs the F-35B.

Tech geek

Scientists at the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign and the University of Cambridge have used nanotechnology to build metallic wood. It’s as strong as titanium but four to five times lighter, and could store energy. That could open up all sorts of novel defence applications and leaps in aerospace capability including high speed, very lightweight air platforms.

Speaking of speed, Bell’s V-280 tilt rotor demonstrator recently topped out at 322 miles per hour (almost 520 km/h). Higher speeds would allow army aviation forces to dash through enemy air defences much faster than traditional helicopters, which fly at around 172 miles an hour (277 km/h) over long ranges.

Meanwhile, the US Navy is starting to think about how it will use robotic craft alongside traditional destroyers and frigates. Breaking Defense has an interesting article on ‘robot wolfpacks’ as a way to achieve a bigger navy.

The Aerospace Corporation in the US has released a wealth of documents from government archives on US space policy going back to 1945.

The Drive has an interesting article on a two-part video examining life on a Russian Akula-class attack submarine, focusing on the ‘Beast’ division of the Northern Fleet.

Finally, Robert H. Latiff’s Future war: preparing for the new global battlefield looks at how war is changing and how society will react to the changing face of war. It also considers future military technologies, from cyberweapons to enhanced soldiers and autonomous systems.

This week in history

This week in 1945, the Soviet army reached Auschwitz in Poland and liberated the estimated 7,600 prisoners found still alive in the infamous camp. An estimated 1.1 million people perished in Auschwitz from 1940 to 1945. Since 2005, the 27th of January has been commemorated as International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera’s Inside Story covers the latest on Saudi journalist Jamaal Khashoggi’s murder and what the UN-led investigation hopes to achieve. [24:40]

Following the collapse of a dam at Corrego do Feijao mine situated above the Brazilian town of Brumadinho, Reuters provides a moving photo series on the rescue efforts and the impact of the disaster.

Test your knowledge of Venezuela by taking this quick quiz from the Council on Foreign Relations.

Podcasts

Don’t know much about North Korean politics? You’re not alone. The Korea Society brings you an interview with Track2Asia director Glyn Ford, who has some amazing insights informed by his access to the regime’s leadership. [26:55]

ASPI’s Policy, Guns and Money this week covers the much-debated topic of preventing drug-related deaths at music festivals before diving into recent developments with Chinese tech giant Huawei, and the future of peacekeeping operations. [30:54]

Events

Melbourne, 7 February, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘After Brexit: Where next for the UK?’ Tickets here ($20).

Sydney, 6 February, 6.30–7.30 pm, UNSW 2019 Gandhi Oration: ‘Tim Costello: Justice in action’. Register here.

There are only a handful of tickets left for the one-day ASPI Women, Peace and Security Masterclass: In Policy and on Operations on 13 February. More information and registration here.

ASPI suggests

Europe

Britain attempted something right out of Australia’s political playbook: a leadership spill (without years of practice, though, this one was unsuccessful and Theresa May remains PM). Vox, CNN and Carnegie get into the details. The National Interest investigates the latest European Court of Justice ruling on the possible revoking of Article 50. See the IISS for Brexit’s impact on European defence.

And it wasn’t just the UK—France and Poland also had no-confidence votes this week. However, both leaderships easily survived. The Wall Street Journal details Macron’s moment of truth, following the violent ‘yellow vest’ protests, which The Verge approaches through the Facebook lens. And the Washington Post explains why the vote in Warsaw was actually a tactical move by the government.

In Germany, meanwhile, Angela Merkel’s successor as head of the Christian Democratic Union (and potentially the next chancellor) has been picked: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer—‘AKK’ to make life easier for non-German speakers—profiled in this Guardian article and this AFP piece.

Hungary continues to cause headaches in European capitals. After the forced closure of the Central European University (read a former student’s take here), Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has continued his government’s dismantling of democracy. The New York Times has details on Hungary’s forthcoming parallel court system and Bloomberg has some additional analysis of how Orban cemented his grip on power and executive control over the judiciary.

This NATO Defence College policy brief looks at the impact of the EU’s security and defence aspirations on NATO. Politico spells out four suggestions for improving the continent’s defence, while the American Enterprise Institute says the proposal to establish a European army isn’t realistic. Look back at this European Council on Foreign Relations report, which claims that rearming Europe would allow for arms control negotiations with Russia. Estonian defence minister Jüri Luik, meanwhile, has written on the importance of NATO and how to respond to Russian aggression.

Artificial intelligence is booming all over the world, and the latest developments are covered by The Verge. What may surprise you is that, according to Quartz, Europe, not China or the US, is the global leader in research on the subject—based on the Artificial Intelligence Index 2018 annual report. Darran Anderson, in The Atlantic, looks at the grim future of urban warfare, highlighting how it—and the design of cities themselves—will be changed by technology and smart data. Speaking of technology, this fascinating analysis by Matt Korda shows how Yandex Maps—Russia’s Google Maps equivalent—has revealed military facilities in Turkey and Israel by blurring satellite images.

Very visible indeed is the picture on Vladimir Putin’s Stasi ID, which was uncovered in Germany this week. This older BBC analysis explains how Putin’s years in East Germany had a lasting impact on him. And this Foreign Policy article criticises the soft stance Berlin has taken towards Chinese tech company Huawei.

The end of the year is a time to look both back and ahead. Politico presents its list of 28 people who will shape Europe in the coming year. And Time selected ‘the guardians’—four journalists and one news organisation—as its ‘person of the year’, in order to acknowledge their courage for reporting the truth. Sticking with this theme, we commend this piece on the experiences of war photographers and the legacy of photojournalism, and the ABC’s investigation revealing Australia’s secret connections to the war in Yemen.

Tech geek

The big news this week (besides the arrival of Australia’s first two F-35 joint strike fighters) is the naming of Australia’s future submarine as the ‘Attack’ class, with the first boat to be named HMAS Attack. Will Australia follow British tradition and give all the new submarines names that start with ‘A’?

From the oceans on earth to the ocean of space, NASA’s OSRIS-REx asteroid probe has discovered water inside asteroid Bennu, which it is now orbiting. With other asteroids like Ceres showing evidence of water, this implies that the substance is common in asteroids. There’s a possibility that it could one day be mined from asteroids to provide rocket fuel and support human exploration of the solar system.

China analyst Richard Fisher thinks Beijing is planning a global navy with at least five aircraft carriers, including nuclear-powered ones. He argues that China could end up with 10 carriers and a marine corps of 100,000 troops, supported by up to 40 amphibious ships.

The Center for International Maritime Security has an interesting interview with novelist and former US naval officer David Poyer on how he writes his naval thrillers, which seems apt given the blog’s great support of future war fiction. Check out The great Pacific war and short story fiction week.

Following the flight of Russian strategic bombers to Venezuela, Stratfor offers some insight on the implications this may have, and the Jamestown Foundation looks at the electronic warfare capabilities Russia has deployed in Kaliningrad.

This week in history

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights was proclaimed in Paris on 10 December 1948. Here’s a short video on its history, and the International Policy Digest analyses its effectiveness and what’s changed since over the past 70 years. The UN has put together an overview of the women who have shaped the declaration.

Multimedia

This DW documentary follows Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege and his fight against sexual violence [28:25], and Al-Jazeera interviewed him and his fellow laureate, Nadia Murad. [25:20]

This New York Times documentary shows that fake news is not just a recent phenomenon in a look at the history of disinformation successfully harnessed by the KGB during the Cold War. [15:37]

Podcasts

Mark Leonard’s World in 30 Minutes analyses how Germany’s approach to international leadership has shifted from economic power to a new-found sense of strategic purpose. [47:37]

Brussels Sprouts chats about the security environment in northern Europe, including NATO’s recent Trident Juncture exercise and EU defence initiatives in the region. [14:15]

EU Confidential talks racial and gender diversity in the EU before addressing Europe’s migration debate. [39:07]

Events

Canberra, 19 December, 6–7.30 pm, ANU Climate Change Institute: ‘Explaining the Katowice Climate Change Conference’. Registration here.

Canberra, 10 January 2019, 10 am – 12 pm, the National Youth Science Forum: ‘STEM speed dating’. Registration and FAQs here.

Don’t forget to purchase tickets for ASPI’s ‘Women, peace and security masterclass: in policy and on operations’ in February. Tickets are selling fast!

This is the last ‘ASPI suggests’ for our European team member, Jacqueline Westermann, and in case you hadn’t noticed, we made use of her final edition to hound you with analyses and deep dives almost entirely on European topics. We wish you a happy festive season and a good start to 2019, when our weekly suggestions for reading up on China and President Trump (and Europe) will resume.

ASPI suggests

The world

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to hold a second meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un early next year. The New York Times highlights the failure of the pair’s meeting in June to stop North Korea’s nuclear program. CNN argues that, despite Trump’s efforts, progress towards peace has been achieved mainly through meetings between the North and South. This piece in The Interpreter claims denuclearisation of North Korea is less of a priority for the South as it pursues détente, peace or even a non-aligned, nuclear-armed, unified state. And The National Interest explains why Trump should accept and encourage peace negotiations between the Koreas.

Following the G20 summit, Beijing and Washington appeared to have reached a ceasefire in the trade war, though the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada might threaten it. CSIS analyses the likelihood of the two powers arriving at a lasting deal in a dispute that has been building over decades. The Conversation puts forward two reasons the truce won’t last, while Bloomberg attempts to answer some unanswered questions about the ‘truce’. Speaking of China, see the Financial Times for the importance of Japan’s relationship with South Korea as it contends with China’s rise.

The UN University’s Centre for Policy Research produced a report looking at the issues faced by the Security Council in times of global power struggles and the dangers that disagreement among its five permanent members can provoke.

The passing of former US president George H.W. Bush has seen condolences pour in from around the world. This Associated Press piece shares how Mikhail Gorbachev remembers his counterpart at the end of the Cold War, and the Washington Post taps into the nostalgia felt in Russia (and elsewhere) following Bush’s death. Meanwhile, Keli Goff’s op-ed for The Daily Beast looks at ‘41’s’ legacy of racial inclusivity and ethnic diversity, motivated by his own family.

The results of a Carnegie comparison of gender equality in government in the US and Tunisia may surprise you. Despite being one of the world’s oldest democracies, the US has fallen significantly short of Tunisia when it comes to female involvement in politics. And Brookings brings you the latest on how this relatively small country has stood up to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen, the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the suppression of female activists.

Two speeches made some waves this week: the chief of UK spy agency MI6, Alex Younger, delivered only his second public speech in four years, applying the fourth industrial revolution to his own industry and the need for fourth-generation espionage. The other was by US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who questioned the concept of multilateralism and criticised international organisations during a speech at the German Marshall Fund. Politico and the Council on Foreign Relations were both critical of his efforts.

And for some extra reads, this BBC investigation is fascinating and scary as it uncovers the heart of fake news production, and talks to those who try to fight it. Michael Fullilove wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald on why the G20 turned out to be awkward for Australia, and the New York Times looks at German chancellor Angela Merkel’s legacy and what will come next. The Boston Review provides insight into long-lost manuscripts by Malcolm X that might change people’s understanding of him.

To get you ready for ‘Tech geek’, read this critical Intercept analysis about the building of predictive software that uses AI to add people to the US no-fly list.

Tech geek

Three miniature Australian satellites—or cubesats—were launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 booster, along with 61 others. The University of New South Wales in Canberra put up the M1 maritime surveillance cubesat, South Australian company Myriota deployed a cubesat to support direct-to-orbit communications for the internet of things, and Fleet Space launched its Centauri I to support IoT applications.

Adding to the good Australian space news, it’s been announced that a space launch facility will be established in 2019 on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula and run by Australian company Southern Launch.

Abhijit Singh has provided a great assessment of future maritime operations in Asia, including the Indian Navy’s growing role. Staying at sea, and almost with a Monty Pythonesque element of comedy, Spain has sailed a warship through UK waters around Gibraltar, blasting the Spanish national anthem from its loudspeakers.

When we think about nuclear war, we think about mere minutes between detection and detonation. This fascinating historical video from the US government gives us an insight into yesterday’s nuclear war, taking us back to a day when missiles didn’t exist, manned bombers were the delivery system and it could take hours for a nuclear attack to take place.

China has deployed a new variant of its DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile system, with greater potential range, speed and accuracy, and an ability to operate from rough sites, increasing its operational flexibility.

Finally, if you want to understand the implications of a US space force, check out this podcast on the Monsoon Project.

This week in history

This week in 1959, 12 countries signed the Antarctic Treaty, which states that Antarctica ‘shall be used for peaceful purposes only’ and bans any military activity on the continent. Will that change in 30 years?

Multimedia

Following the death of George H.W. Bush, the Council on Foreign Affairs has republished this video of a panel discussion on his presidency, his foreign policy and the lasting influence of his administration. [1:03.25]

Al-Jazeera captures the aftermath of protests in Paris, where demonstrations against the government’s plans to increase fuel and energy prices turned violent, in these photos.

Podcasts

The Center for a New American Security interviews former US ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk on how peace in the Middle East was almost achieved in the early to mid-1990s under George H.W. Bush. [37:55]

An interesting episode from the National Security Podcast discusses counterterrorism, home-grown terrorism, technological challenges faced by US counterterrorism agencies and how America’s gun laws affect counterterrorism efforts. [40:51]

Events

Canberra, 10 December, 5.30–8.30 pm, ANU: ‘Universal Declaration of Human Rights: celebrating the 70th anniversary’. Register here.

Canberra, 11 December, 12.30–1.30 pm, ANU: ‘Women policing in China: separate but equal?’ Tickets here.

Perth, 11 December, 6.00–10.00 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs WA: ‘Future uncertain: Australia’s world in 2019’. Tickets here ($55).