Tag Archive for: General

National security wrap

The beat

San Francisco to ban facial recognition technology

San Francisco is planning to ban the use of facial recognition technology by the city government and police. There will also be a requirement for the public to be notified before other surveillance technology, including automatic licence plate readers and predictive policing software, is adopted. The ban will be the first by a US municipality, as the city addresses the potential abuses of technology. It comes after studies showed existing racial biases in policing can be reinforced by biases in the technology.

Gang leader killed in airport raid

A suspected gang leader has been shot dead after a raid on an Austrian Airlines plane on a runway at Albania’s Tirana International Airport. Albanian police believe that the gang had prior knowledge of €10 million (A$16 million) in cash being carried as cargo on the plane. One gunman was shot in the head and the other two gang members remain at large. Albania’s central bank does not accept hard cash deposits and organised gangs have been behind previous raids on transfers to Vienna.

Indian police detain protesters

More than 50 women were briefly detained by police in India after an inquiry found Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi not guilty of sexual harassment. In April, a former court employee accused Gogoi of sexually harassing her when he was appointed to the role. His accuser decided to withdraw from the inquiry, saying she did not believe it would be fair. India’s Supreme Court had questioned the veracity of her claims, calling for a separate investigation into a possible conspiracy against Gogoi.

Checkpoint

Hundreds killed on Ethiopia–Sudan border

More than 200 people have been killed in an ongoing territorial dispute on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan . The violence in the north-eastern Ethiopian state of Amhara is said to have begun with disputes over the payment of labourers, and no arrests over the killings have been made by Ethiopian authorities. Ethnic nationalists from Amhara have been attempting to re-draw territorial boundaries between Sudan and Ethiopia since they were set in 1992.

Venezuelans caught in border shootout

A video shows people ducking for cover as a shootout between armed groups began near a crowded border crossing between Colombia and Venezuela. The incident occurred on an unauthorised dirt road border crossing, or trocha, near the Simon Bolivar International Bridge, used by Venezuelans who use Colombia as a lifeline for food and medicine. Trochas are controlled by criminals who harass and rob those using the crossing.

Masked men stop Turkish asylum seekers

Turkish asylum seekers attempting to cross the border into Greece have said they’ve been beaten and pushed back by masked men armed with batons. On a second attempt, the same asylum seekers tried to cross the border from the Evros River and were arrested by Greek police and taken into custody. A report was published by NGOs last year detailing the ‘push-back’ practices of Greek law enforcement officers.

CT Scan

Right-wing extremism on the rise in Germany

German authorities say the number of far-right extremists and fringe groups in the country has increased by 50% in two years and the German government says that monitoring far right-extremists there is becoming more difficult. This is largely due to the fragmentation of traditional extremist groups, the rise of fringe groups and the increasing potential for lone wolf attacks. Research by The Economist found a concerning similarity between German far-right voting patterns in 1933 and now.

Undocumented children a ‘ticking time bomb’

The European Union’s anti-terrorism chief says 45,000 children born in Iraq amount to a ‘ticking time bomb’ and could be the ‘next generation of suicide bombers’. As the children were born in areas then controlled by the Islamic State terror group they do not have Iraqi citizenship. Their IS-issued birth certificates are not recognised by the Iraqi government, potentially denying them the right to medical care, schooling and jobs. See this report by the Norwegian Refugee Council for more on the issue.

Foreign fighters in Ukraine

New research has examined the little-known issue of foreign fighters who join government forces or Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. The University of Melbourne’s Sara Meger argues that similar ideas and ideologies drive people to go and fight in Ukraine as those who have gone to fight in Syria. She also found many were attracted to the conflict in Ukraine to satisfy their desire for a fight and a longing for the thrill of battle.

First Responder

Namibia declares state of emergency

Namibia’s president has declared a state of emergency due to a crippling series of droughts. Hage Geingob says the situation is dire and 500,000 people—one fifth of the total population—are at risk of malnutrition. Namibia is known for having one of the world’s oldest and largest deserts, the Namib. The government is seeking international help to provide for its citizens.

Hope for millions as UN gains access to Yemen wheat mills

The United Nations says it has regained access to important wheat mills on the outskirts of the city of Hodeidah, which has seen heavy fighting between the Saudi-led coalition and Iranian-backed Houthi militias since 2014. The mills hold an estimated 51,000 tonnes of wheat, a potential boon for millions of Yemenis suffering from malnutrition. The wheat needs to be fumigated and it’s likely to be weeks before it can be turned into flour and distributed to the population.

Quarantine lifted after Mongolians die of plague

Tourists have been allowed to leave Mongolia’s westernmost province of Bayan-Ulgii which had been closed off by authorities. All locals and tourists had been prevented from entering or leaving the region until Monday after a Mongolian couple caught bubonic plague eating raw marmot kidney last week. Cases of plague occur nearly every year in the country, as some locals believe eating the raw meat of the large rodent will bring good health.

The five-domains update

Sea state

The Indian and French navies have begun the 17th iteration of their annual bilateral naval war exercise off Goa. Varuna 19.1/19.2 features two aircraft carriers, FNS Charles de Gaulle and INS Vikramaditya, plus supporting flotillas of missile destroyers, frigates, submarines and tankers from both navies. The first phase of the exercise will include simulated attacks on ships and air combat drills.

The Indonesian Navy says one of its patrol vessels was rammed by two Vietnamese coastguard ships after intercepting an illegal Vietnamese fishing boat in its waters in the South China Sea. A video distributed by the Indonesian Navy seems to show armed Indonesian crewmembers shouting profanities at the Vietnamese ship during the collision. Indonesia has sunk hundreds of illegal fishing vessels from Vietnam, the Philippines, China and other nations since 2014.

Russia is planning to build a new logistics centre near the northwestern city of Arkhangelsk to help its northern fleet handle transport operations in the Arctic. The facility will be crucial for reloading and storing supplies for military activities. The site’s developers say it will have the capacity to handle 27,000 tons of solid goods, 78,000 tons of fuels and lubricants and 260 vehicles and units of machinery. It’s estimated the facility will cost 15 billion rubles (A$329.1 million).

Flight path

The Royal Australian Air Force’s EA-18G electronic attack aircraft has achieved initial operating capability. Based on the F/A-18F airframe, the ‘Growler’ provides Australia with unique joint electronic warfare capabilities. IOC has been reached despite the loss of one of the RAAF’s 12 Growlers to an engine fire incident in January last year at the annual Red Flag exercise in Las Vegas.

It’s unclear if the US Air Force has located the wreckage of the Japanese F-35A which went missing on 9 April. According to a Nikkei Asian Review article last week, the head of Pacific Air Forces, General Charles Brown, said the main wreckage of the missing jet had been located. But that has since been denied by a spokesman for US forces in Japan. The F-35’s Japanese pilot is still missing.

Four Italian Air Force F-2000A Eurofighter aircraft have been deployed to southeast Romania on a NATO air-policing mission. NATO forces support regular air-policing missions in Romania as well as air-defence missions in the Baltic states. But it’s the first time Italian Eurofighters have been deployed to the country, where they’ll support the Romanian Air Force’s Soviet-era MiG-21 aircraft.

Rapid fire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the deployment of tanks, artillery and infantry forces to reinforce troops stationed near the border with Gaza, raising fears of a ground invasion. In the worst violence in the area since 2014, 24 Palestinians and four Israelis have been killed. More than 600 projectiles have reportedly been fired from the Gaza Strip, and Netanyahu has ordered ‘massive strikes’ in retaliation.

Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay says his country will not back down on its planned procurement of the Russian S-400 missile defence system. The US has threatened Turkey with possible sanctions if it pursues the deal, claiming the S-400 may compromise US-made F-35 jets. Turkey is taking part in the construction of F-35s and plans to buy some itself. Acting US defence secretary Patrick Shanahan says the US will pull F-35 support from Turkey if it buys the S-400 from Russia.

Raytheon has been awarded a US$159 million contract to provide support for training exercises at the US Army’s Joint Multinational Readiness Center in Germany through its Mobile Instrumentation System. The technology allows forces to train together while in different locations by gathering data from allied units in their home countries and sending it back to Germany to be analysed.

Final frontier

SpaceX has confirmed that its Crew Dragon spacecraft was destroyed during a recent test at Cape Canaveral. After footage of the test was leaked online, the company’s vice president of mission assurance said the destruction of the craft was linked to the starting of the ‘SuperDraco’ engines that power the spacecraft’s emergency escape system. The Crew Dragon project is already behind schedule, but NASA has said it wants the capsule to begin flying US astronauts later this year.

Japanese company Interstellar Technologies has successfully launched its MOMO-3 rocket into space, expanding ‘the horizons for private spaceflight’. It’s the first private Japanese rocket to reach space, after the company’s two previous attempts failed. Interstellar aims to provide an alternative to expensive government launches of rockets capable of ferrying satellites into orbit.

Rocket Lab has successfully launched three small satellites into space for the US Air Force from New Zealand. Founded in 2006, Rocket Lab has capitalised on the rapidly expanding small satellite launch industry, which has brought about a small revolution in the way the US and other countries have thought about space warfare.

Wired watchtower

The facial recognition system that Queensland police used during the 2018 Commonwealth Games was reportedly rushed and didn’t have enough data to work properly. The system was unable to identify any high-priority targets and there were difficulties with its ‘data ingestion’. During the games, the technology was also used for basic policing and only found five of 268 identities requested of it.

Police in the Philippines will investigate claims that the Chinese state could use Huawei to engage in espionage. The probe was announced after local media questioned Huawei’s sponsorship of an anti-cybercrime summit. Last year, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a US$400 million agreement for Huawei to provide a video surveillance system called ‘Safe Philippines’ in Manila and Davao.

US military research agency DARPA is testing a network of sensors designed to detect and alert authorities to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats. The ‘SIGMA+’ initiative aims to enable the detection of threats on citywide and regional scales through a network of sensors and network algorithms. The program’s pilot study at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway was successful. This video gives a clear overview of the program and how it works.

ASPI suggests

The world

It’s the end of an era in Japan—literally. This week, the 30-year Heisei Era came to an end with the abdication of Emperor Akihito, and the Reiwa Era began with his son Naruhito’s ascension to the Chrysanthemum Throne. See CNN reporter Will Ripley’s short documentary series for more on the first emperor to abdicate in more than 200 years. There’s concern about a dwindling number of heirs in the world’s oldest continuing hereditary monarchy. Women aren’t currently allowed to inherit the throne, though a poll this week found that nearly 80% of the Japanese people would support a change.

Following Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido’s call for open rebellion against President Nicolas Maduro, thousands have taken to the streets. For what we know so far, see the New York Times, and for more on the history behind the crisis, The Strategy Bridge has you covered. While the rest of the world watches on, National Interest claims the US must intervene or face the challenge of millions of refugees fleeing to the American border. And DW analyses the impact the turmoil is having on Venezuelans.

Iran has threatened (yet again) to close the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world’s petroleum passes—due to renewed US sanctions. Al Jazeera examines what the consequences of shutting the Strait would be [25:15]. The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article outlining the impacts on the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US as the kingdom looks to boost its oil output in response to the sanctions on Iran. Here are some BBC charts illustrating the effect the sanctions are having on Iran. Brookings looks into the many unanswered questions surrounding President Donald Trump’s goals in increasing the Iranian sanctions. See The Strategist for how the sanctions could lead to increased instability in the Middle East.

In this great New York Times piece, Ameena Hussein, a Muslim living in Sri Lanka, describes how the Easter bombings affected her life. Hussein questions why and how violent extremism began to take over in her Muslim community, one which is now facing ostracism from the wider Sri Lankan population. See Chatham House for the wider implications of the attacks on Sri Lanka.

The Council on Foreign Relations has all you need to know on the Russia – North Korea relationship following the meeting between the countries’ leaders and during which Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted the importance of denulcearisation and Russia’s relevance in the Korean peace process. For analysis of what Putin actually wants from North Korea, see the National Interest.

For those with an interest in anthropology and archaeology, a jaw bone found on the Tibetan Plateau has been revealed to be 160,000 years old, proving that early humans—in this case, Denisovans—lived in the area long before previously thought.

If you haven’t yet caught the latest episode of Game of Thrones, avert your eyes now. Those of you who have seen it may be, like us, perplexed at some of the choices made by the defenders of Winterfell in trying, and coming ever so close to failing, to defeat the Army of the Dead. Examining everything from spectacularly poor use of airpower to confused defensive positioning and Custer-like cavalry charges, Wired has the tactical analysis of the battle you’re looking for.

Tech geek

There’s an interesting story on China’s growing naval capability and ambitions, including the rapid growth of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, and how it is set to eclipse the US Navy in the Western Pacific. With that in mind, an important report on how the PLA plans to wage ‘systems confrontation and system destruction warfare’ has been released by the RAND Corporation.

There are some challenges ahead for NASA in achieving the current goal of returning humans to the moon by 2024. Ars Technica published a really hard-hitting piece on problems with funding, congressional resistance to commercial solutions and internal NASA resistance to an accelerated timetable.

Sticking with space, and keeping with China’s plans, there was an important session of the US–China Economic and Security Review in Congress this week which went into depth on China’s strategic space ambitions.

And who says the US military doesn’t do pop culture? Three advanced software labs have sci-fi names: ‘Kessel Run’ in Boston and ‘Bespin’ in Montgomery, Alabama, are both of Star Wars fame, and ‘Kobayashi Maru’ in Los Angeles comes from Star Trek. What they do at these labs is highly classified … of course!

In aircraft news, Popular Mechanics has given us the first glimpse inside the cockpit of the B-2A Spirit stealth bomber, and the US Air Force’s F-35A has had its first combat operation over Iraq.

Finally, evidence has emerged that Russia may be using beluga whales to spy on NATO bases in Norway. But the Russians aren’t the only ones putting marine mammals to military work.

This week in history

On 30 April 1945, Adolf Hitler died. The Nazi leader committed suicide in his Berlin bunker as the Red Army took the city street by street. Hitler’s death has long been the subject of conspiracy theories, including that he fled to Argentina in a submarine, though last year French scientists published analysis of bone and dental records they say proves he did indeed die in 1945.

Multimedia

Human Rights Watch has released an interactive report on its findings that authorities in China are engaging in mass surveillance and detention of Muslims in Xinjiang with the help of an app. The app has been ‘reverse engineered’ to show that the illegal monitoring of legal behaviour is being used to target the people of Xinjiang. See how the app works here.

See this Al Jazeera documentary for a look at what happens after a mass shooting in the US. Fault Lines examines the impact on survivors and the families of victims once the immediate media attention and calls for ‘thoughts and prayers’ fade away. [26:00].

Podcasts

On History Hit, Dan Snow speaks to Alexandra Churchill, who’s looked through the UK’s Royal Archives to uncover the real role of King George V of Saxe-Coburg Windsor in World War I. [27:00].

In this two-part series, Planet Money investigates how Chilean economists who studied at the University of Chicago helped dictator Augusto Pinochet take their country from socialism to capitalism at a huge human cost. Part 1 [24:27], part 2 [27:27].

Events

Sydney, 4 May, 2–3 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Islands, encounters and adaptations in the Pacific’. Register here.

Canberra, 7 May, 12.30–2 pm, Australian National University: ‘Asia’s economic outlook: what are the risks?’ Register here.

Melbourne, 9 May, 5.30–7 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Xi Jinping’s counter-reformation and China’s new world order’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

The terror attack in Sri Lanka has proved to be an inflection point for jihadi terrorism in South Asia. As the world tries to make sense of the tragedy, here’s an informative Twitter thread that gives the background of Sri Lanka’s ethno-religious divisions and fault lines. Neil Devotta, in an article in Foreign Policy, contends that the attacks will lead to greater ethnic and religious disharmony in the island nation. Firstpost demonstrated fine investigative journalism, piecing together the identity and history of the suicide bombers in a pair of articles, here and here. A piece in the New York Times argues that the attack is a sign of the Islamic State’s growing clout, despite world leaders’ claims of its defeat.

The release of the Mueller report investigating Donald Trump’s involvement (or otherwise) with Russia’s interference in the 2016 US election has renewed calls for the president’s impeachment. Here’s a Vox article that lays out an accessible account of what the Mueller report says Trump actually did. Former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has penned a scathing criticism of Trump in the Washington Post and called for lawmakers to treat this scandal as another Watergate. This piece from The New Yorker examines the legal aspects of the report and makes the case for impeachment as a ‘primary moral duty’, which is echoed by Robert Zaretsky in Foreign Policy.

This week Sudan continues to be in the throes of a complex transition, although it remains unclear what exactly it’s transitioning to. The army has been in control of the country since the ousting of long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir, but ongoing protests have made it clear that civilians aren’t willing to accept a military-led government, which many see as simply a continuation of the old regime with a few chairs shuffled around. Military leaders have told the BBC that the army won’t use force against the protestors, who have been staging a sit-in in front of the military headquarters in Khartoum. They have not, however, given any guarantees of when or if the ‘Transitional Military Council’ will be handing over power to a civilian-led government.

Ukraine witnessed a very different handover of power this week as comedian Volodymyr Zelensky secured the presidency in a landslide victory. The election of Zelensky, who used to play a Ukrainian president on TV, is expected to mark a shift in relations between Ukraine and Russia. While describing him as ‘dangerously pro-Russian’ is probably taking it a bit too far, his willingness to reopen direct talks with Putin on the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, combined with his lack of political experience and absence of a clear policy platform on many important issues (shortly after being elected he launched a Facebook poll on whether there should be an early dissolution of parliament, for example) has some observers worried.

This New York Times article provides a useful explainer on what happened at the meeting between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok this week. The Wall Street Journal argues that the meeting was more symbolic than substantive.

For those of you who, like us, are keeping up with the ongoing post-mortem of India’s skirmishes with Pakistan from earlier this year, here’s an Indian Express report analysing the Indian Air Force’s review of its airstrikes in Balakot. For a broad context, refer to The Strategist’s great collection on this theme. Kunal Singh, writing in the Hindustan Times, steps away from the nitty-gritties and whodunnits to look at the bigger picture of what India achieved out of the airstrikes.

Tech geek

There’s a really interesting article in US Naval Institute News on how the US Marines are using the F-35B as a key element of their ‘island-hopping’ concept of expeditionary advance base operations that would be critical in any military conflict with China. The strategy includes operating the F-35B from forward refueling and arming points—shown in this video.

DARPA (the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) has launched project ‘Blackjack’, which seeks to develop large networks of small satellites based on commercial technology to augment existing high-end US space capabilities, and frustrate Chinese and Russian counter-space ambitions. And US Defense officials faced tough questions on the proposed US space force at a recent congressional hearing.

Things went disastrously wrong for Russian Air Force pilots when a MiG-31 Foxhound was accidently shot down during a training exercise. The Drive has the details.

There’s a very thought provoking analysis in Foreign Affairs of the ‘new’ revolution in military affairs and why Western liberal democracies, led by the US, are in danger of coming off second best as radical new technologies emerge from authoritarian states like China.

Forbes published a great article about the importance of the rapidly growing commercial space sector and how it will make the next space race radically different from the last one (to get to the moon). And rocket scientist Robert Zubrin talks about China’s emerging space ambitions, including getting to Mars.

Finally, do read Piercing the fog of peace, a new report from the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments on innovative operational concepts for future warfare.

Multimedia

In honour of Anzac Day, here’s a Defence Connect podcast by Mat Jones looking at the contributions of veterans to the workforce. [30:46]

Al Jazeera published an interview with experts dissecting a leaked report on Yemen that suggests Western weapons were used to unleash ‘the world’s worst humanitarian crisis’. [25:10]

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran unpack the geopolitical ramifications of the Sri Lankan terror attacks in this podcast in The Diplomat. [21:31]

Happymon Jacob and Abhijeet Singh examine the Indo-Pacific and Quad debate in light of recent events in an episode of National Security Conversations with Happymon Jacob. [40:20]

Events

Sydney, 30 April, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, ‘Empire of the winds: the global role of Asia’s great archipelago’. Register here.

Canberra, 30 April, 6–7 pm, Australian National University, ‘In conversation with Troy Bramston’. Register here.

Melbourne, 1 May, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, ‘Cuban missile crisis 2.0?’ Register here.

The five-domains update

Sea state

Today marks the 70th anniversary of the formation of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy. Beijing has invited more than 10 countries to take part in a fleet review and is expecting naval delegations from 60 other countries. While Chinese state-run media has presented the fleet review as an attempt to build better transparency and avoid naval conflict, China will also use the parade to showcase its newest warships and submarines, including the Type 055 destroyer and Type 001A aircraft carrier.

After repeated postponements, Indonesian shipyard PT PAL in Surabaya has launched the first Indonesian-built electric submarine. The construction of KRI Alugoro was assisted by the South Korean company Daewoo under its US$1.1 billion project DSME1400. That contract has produced two other submarines; KRI Nagapasa was commissioned in 2017 and KRI Ardadedali was transferred to the Indonesian navy in 2018.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the country is unable to export its oil. The vow follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement that all countries importing Iranian oil will be subject to US sanctions. Exports of Iranian oil have halved since US sanctions took effect last year. The revolutionary guard was designated as a terrorist organisation by the US earlier this month.

Flight path

The US may give Japan secret information on the F-35 fighter jet to jumpstart the development of a new fighter aircraft for the country’s air force. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force will take delivery of 147 F-35s, but Japan still wants to develop its own stealth fighter jet, years after the US refused to export its F-22 Raptors. Lockheed Martin may receive US permission to give Japan information on sensitive technology.

US F-35s, meanwhile, have begun their first combat deployment to the Middle East, landing at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. The F-35s are replacing F-15Cs, which themselves replaced a deployment of the US Air Force’s ‘most capable’ fighter aircraft, the F-22. The stationing of F-35s in the UAE follows recent deployments of the aircraft to the South China Sea and Europe.

The first of three leased Dassault Falcon 7X aircraft has been delivered to the Royal Australian Air Force. The aircraft will be based at Fairbairn in Canberra, replacing Bombardier Challenger CL-604 aircraft used to transport government VIPs—though two larger 737-based business jets will remain on the books. The Falcon has a range of up to 11,000 kilometres and can land on remote airstrips.

Rapid fire

The US Army will deploy a ‘terminal high-altitude area defence’ interceptor to Romania in the first THAAD deployment to Europe since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The THAAD system will temporarily replace NATO’s Aegis ballistic missile defence system, which is a land-based variant of the US Navy’s Aegis weapons system, while Romania’s Aegis Ashore site undergoes maintenance.

British defence chiefs have expressed anger over the plan to mothball a third of the army’s tanks. The British Army is planning to upgrade only 148 of its 227 Challenger 2 tanks, with the remaining 79 tanks to be used for spare parts. The Times reports that £31 billion ($57 billion) has been stripped from the army since 2010. The proposed cut to the armoured force follows rumours that the UK might try to offset some of the cost of Brexit by cutting military spending.

French military strategists met in Paris to consider the future of warfare and how the country’s army can adequately prepare for high-intensity conflict. The use of robots to supplement French ground forces was a key topic. But it doesn’t seem likely that France will integrate fully autonomous robots into the army anytime soon. The susceptibility of such systems to cyberattacks was also highlighted as a challenge to future fighting capabilities.

Zero gravity

On the sidelines of the 35th Space Symposium in Colorado, the USAF hosted a meeting with its allies—including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and European nations—about the need for greater cooperation in space as a part of the ‘Combined Space Operations’ initiative. With space situational awareness in focus, USAF Chief of Staff General David Goldfein said information-sharing in this domain will become increasingly important among allies. It’s expected that the meeting will become an annual event.

SpaceX has suffered a setback after an explosion was reported during engine testing of its ‘Crew Dragon’. The glitch is likely to delay NASA’s plans to launch astronauts from US soil. Meanwhile, SpaceX managed to land and recover rocket boosters from the first stage of its Falcon Heavy rocket. However, one booster was lost at sea. Rough conditions meant that SpaceX couldn’t send any crew members to secure the boosters once they had landed on the platform.

The US Department of Defense has awarded a US$605 million contract to Boeing to develop and build the 11th wideband global satellite communications system. The satellites are used mainly to support the USAF’s warfighting capabilities, but, through a partnership agreement, the Australian Department of Defence has access to them.

Wired watchtower

The US Central Intelligence Agency reportedly has proof that Chinese telecom giant Huawei has received funding from Beijing’s state security apparatus. A source for the Times has said that Huawei has taken money from the People’s Liberation Army, China’s National Security Commission and a third branch of the Chinese state intelligence network. If these allegations are true, Huawei will no longer be able to maintain its long-running denial that it depends on Chinese government support.

Embassies across Europe have been targeted by Russian hackers. The hackers used spearphishing attacks containing malicious Microsoft Excel files to corrupt and weaponise remote-access service TeamViewer, giving them complete access to and control over computers. The malicious files were created to resemble official documents from the US State Department. It has been reported that Nepal, Guyana, Liberia, Bermuda and Lebanon were successfully targeted in the attack.

US and Japanese officials have confirmed in a joint statement that the security treaty between the two countries could apply to cyberattacks against Japan. Foreign Minister Taro Kono and Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya met their US counterparts, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, for the first ‘2+2’ dialogue held since 2017. The joint statement also reaffirmed that the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands in the East China Sea are covered by the security treaty.

Preventing disaster from striking Australia’s economy

The $3.9 billion emergency response fund announced in the Morrison government’s pre-election budget will resonate with the tens of thousands of Australians who, over recent months, have suffered terribly from record-setting droughts, floods and bushfires.

Under the new arrangements, the government would make available up to $150 million a year from the fund between 2019–20 to 2023–24 (as a top-up to existing support) following a significant and catastrophic natural disaster.

But providing support to communities after a disaster has struck is far less effective than decreasing their exposure and vulnerability to the natural hazards from the outset. The strong business case for investing in disaster risk reduction has been underlined for some time by groups as diverse as the Australian Productivity Commission and the Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities.

The US National Institute of Building Sciences, for example, found that every dollar invested in mitigation can save six dollars in future disaster costs.

Mitigation of disaster risk is particularly important for Australia because the country is highly exposed to hazards. For example, 20% of national GDP and 3.9 million of the population are in areas with high to extreme risk of tropical cyclones, and about 11% of GDP and 2.2 million people are in places with high and extreme risk of bushfires.

The Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities noted in its 2017 report Building resilience to natural disasters in our states and territories that, without increased mitigation efforts, the total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia will grow from roughly $18 billion today to over $39 billion by 2050. The effects of climate change will increasingly compound these costs.

The recent and very significant ‘public’ intervention of 23 retired Australian Emergency Service leaders has added an operational view on the matter. It has demonstrated how an increasing frequency of extreme and extended climate-change-related emergencies is placing lives, properties and livelihoods at greater risk, as well as overwhelming the capacity of our emergency services to control the events and render communities safe.

Australian governments need to urgently move beyond an approach focused on funding disaster-recovery efforts alone. Governments at all levels should be supporting efforts to limit the exposure and vulnerability of Australian communities to natural hazards through a renewed focus on land-use planning, zoning, flood mapping and flood control measures.

This message isn’t new. Independent commentary in Australia as far back as 2008 highlighted the need to widen efforts on disaster mitigation and rethink assumptions about capability and capacity to deal with catastrophic disasters.

We not only need to consistently ‘build back better’ after disasters strike, but also must ensure that recovery and restoration include an emphasis on resilient engineering design as part of infrastructure investments.

The historical tendency to repeatedly build the same type of bridge or other infrastructure at a location where it has been regularly washed away makes little sense.

The private sector, particularly insurance and investment groups, tends to be more proactive than governments in thinking about how to mitigate the impact of disasters on their operations. Notable examples of industry effort include workgroups such as the Responsible Investment Association Australasia and the Investor Group on Climate Change.

These and other groups actively participate in the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative on sustainable economic development and are active in developing an ‘Australian Sustainable Finance Roadmap’ to ensure alignment of the finance sector with the delivery of resilient and sustainable economic plans, including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

These activities by the finance and investment sectors represent a significant sea change nationally. Even the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has emphasised that financial exposures from climate change, including disaster risk, are material, foreseeable and actionable.

Last month, Guy Debelle, the deputy governor of the generally conservative Reserve Bank of Australia, warned that climate change and resulting natural hazards increase the likelihood of non-linear impacts on the economy with potential consequences for financial stability.

Australia needs to adapt its policies to support a more comprehensive disaster management repertoire that incorporates, and ideally mainstreams, efforts to avoid or minimise disaster damage rather than the tendency to primarily provide emergency recovery funds.

Historically, Australia’s investments in mitigation have amounted to only 3% of what it spends on the disaster response and recovery. Without a change in the right direction, the emergency response funding announced in the budget is just more icing on the same familiar cake.

But not all recent government efforts have been in a response-and-recovery mode. This past week has seen an almost silent launch of the long-awaited National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework from the National Resilience Taskforce (NRTF) in the Department of Home Affairs.

The framework is designed to guide national, whole-of-society efforts to proactively reduce disaster risk in terms of the likelihood of disruptions and losses. This is centrally about mitigating exposure to hazards and reducing community and institutional vulnerabilities.

The NRTF framework has three goals. It aims to reduce existing disaster risk, minimise creation of future potential for loss through decisions taken across all sectors, and equip decision-makers with the capability and information needed to reduce disaster risk and manage residual risk exposures.

Achievement of these goals requires a focus on four main points: to better understand disaster risk exposures, to support more accountable decisions, to enhance investment in mitigation actions, and to promote better governance, ownership and responsibility for achieving a reduction in the potential for losses and enhanced resilience.

The NRTF framework is expected to be endorsed by ministers in mid-2019. An annual ministerial statement on the status of disaster risk reduction to the Australian parliament is expected to be made then too.

We should do more than just provide details for an annual statement to parliament. Central to a new policy playbook is taking the NRTF framework and actively engaging in its implementation as a joint effort between local, state and federal governments and the private sector.

Australia should invest in actively preventing losses from natural disasters where possible. The NRTF framework provides informed and widely endorsed guidance that is aligned to current international better practice. Without far greater ambition on this front, merely providing $3.9 billion as a top-up to support natural disaster recovery efforts essentially amounts to dispatching an ambulance to the bottom of the cliff.

ASPI suggests

The world

Australia’s phoney election campaign has finally turned into the real thing. Voters will head to the polls on 18 May—joining the citizens of a number of countries that are holding elections now or soon. This analysis in the Sydney Morning Herald frames the contest as the second time in a decade that Australians seem set to remove the government despite being less than enthusiastic about the opposition. Perhaps the line of the campaign so far has come from Peter Hartcher, who boiled Scott Morrison versus Bill Shorten down to ‘a contest between an angry dad figure in a baseball cap and a sad sack who looks like he learned public speaking at a funeral parlour’. Exciting times ahead!

If you really want to get into the nitty gritty of seat-by-seat breakdowns, margins and other electoral data (who doesn’t?), check out the swing calculator and A–Z electorate list from ABC election analyst Antony Green.

Polls are already open in the world’s largest democracy. The first of seven phases of voting is underway in the Indian elections, which will run until 19 May. See this Al Jazeera explainer for a breakdown of everything you need to know about the system and the choices India’s 900 million eligible voters face.

The results are in in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu has, um, netted another term in office. See former Israeli foreign minister Shlomo Ben-Ami for why the result ‘amounts to a monumental indictment of Israel’s democracy’.

And what would talk of elections be without talk of election interference? The BBC has investigated the presence of Russian ‘tourists’ and ‘observers’ in Madagascar before presidential elections there last year. See the full documentary here.

Following the 16th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq last month, this National Interest piece identifies the areas in which the US hasn’t made a difference. According to Bloomberg, the US campaign hasn’t affected Iraq’s oil production, though Iraq is now challenging Saudi Arabia’s global dominance of OPEC.

In Afghanistan, peace could be just around the corner. Writing in the Australian Financial Review, Ahmed Rashid gives US President Donald Trump credit for starting the ongoing peace talks there. This article by Angelina Jolie for Time highlights the importance of including women in the Afghan peace process.

Over a million Rohingya refugees have fled to Bangladesh since 2017, where they often face poor living conditions and limited access to safe drinking water and food. ASPI’s Elise Thomas has provided some excellent insights into the Bangladeshi plan to resettle over 100,000 refugees onto a silt island that is often struck by cyclones. Despite Bangladesh looking for ways to halt the influx, NPR highlights that they are there to stay. And see these UNHCR pieces (here and here) to see how refugees are being empowered as they help prepare for Bangladesh’s cyclone season.

Moving to Europe, The Economist describes Europe’s move towards a more ‘protective’ continent, and  Chatham House has the details of Trump’s impact on the future of EU–US trade. Time examines the growth of the nationalist movement across Europe, which is threatening the EU and gaining traction despite the continent’s history. On a different note, see Forbes for a look into how Europe is tackling the ethical questions of artificial intelligence. And it would be remiss of us not to mention Europe’s latest chapter in the thrilling page-turner, There and back again: a Brexit tale. The BBC has the details of the new Brexit deadline of 31 October. Tony Blair’s former communications boss Alastair Campbell says he hopes that the extension will provide enough time for another referendum.

In other news, Julian Assange has been arrested in London after Ecuador withdrew its asylum of the Australian WikiLeaks founder. See Foreign Policy for more details.

Tech geek

This week in the US, the annual Space Symposium is underway, with important announcements about the US space force, the accelerated return to the moon, and the expansion of Australia’s emerging space sector. The symposium coincided with big news, including the historic first image of a black hole, the second successful launch of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy booster rocket, and the unsuccessful landing of an Israeli probe on the moon.

The US Navy seems to be overcoming the debilitating lack of readiness of its fighter force with better availability of its F-35C and F/A-18E/F jets. See Breaking Defense for analysis of this positive development. But the bad news is that Japan’s Air Self Defense Force has lost an F-35A over the Pacific and its entire F-35 fleet has been grounded.

Russia may be planning to sell an export variant of its Su-57 to China in spite of the numerous technical problems the aircraft currently faces. Sputnik claims the ‘Su-57E’ may be offered to Turkey, as Ankara’s purchase of the US F-35A falls apart.

Proving that the days of showing the flag at sea are definitely not over, the US Navy sent a message to China by sailing USS Wasp, loaded with F-35Bs, near Scarborough Shoal, a reef controlled by China but claimed by the Philippines.

This week in history

This week in 1917, the United States entered World War I following events including the sinking of a passenger ship, the Lusitania, by a German U-boat and the interception of the Zimmerman telegram. The US mobilised more than 4 million soldiers and provided supplies, arms and ammunition to the Allies.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera has a great photo series showing the protestors in Sudan who have broken the military curfew over the past few months to protest President Omar al-Bashir’s rule and, last night, celebrate his removal from power.

ABC’s Foreign Correspondent investigates the ‘Trump of the tropics’, Brazil’s new president, Jair Bolsonaro. [30:18]

Podcasts

Arms Control Wonk discusses the overreaction to Saudi Arabia’s nuclear news and what exactly it entails. [41:44]

So-called grey-zone operations are becoming a part of day-to-day life in many countries. War Studies examines what hybrid warfare really is and the role of information in modern conflicts. [33:36]

Social media is affecting most aspects of everyday life, including the shape of leadership. World Affairs dives into how politics is transforming thanks to the internet. [59:01]

Events

Sydney, 16 April, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Is peace possible in Afghanistan?’ Tickets here ($25).

Canberra, 17 April, 6.30–8 pm, Australian National University: ‘The state of Australian politics’. Register here.

Melbourne, 17 April, 6.30–7.30 pm, University of Melbourne: ‘The complex international and domestic economics of climate change’. Book here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Foreign ministers of NATO countries have gathered in Washington to mark the 70th anniversary of the organisation’s creation. For a brief history of NATO, what it does and who is a member, see Al Jazeera. Meanwhile, the Financial Times questions the US’s commitment to the organisation following what has been dubbed the ‘transatlantic distancing’ under President Donald Trump and Politico asks the big question—Where to next? The German Marshall Fund has a video of the international meeting which is well worth a watch. And finally, see the Washington Post for how the alliance remains relevant today.

In the same vein, see Al Jazeera for a piece that shows European defence spending is on the up and asks whether that’s something Trump can claim credit for. And this article from Brookings recognises the shortfalls in Germany’s defence spending. Speaking of which, see Foreign Policy for the potential impacts that a split on German military spending could have on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government.

While we’re on defence spending, the Australian budget has landed and Marcus Hellyer dissects how its arrival, pre-election, will impact Defence spending and planning. For a succinct brief on the defence and industry budget, see Defence Connect and, writing in the Australian, Paul Maley highlights the impact the military defeat of Islamic State is having on Defence spending.

In an important piece laying out his defence for pulling Australia out of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in 2008, former prime minister Kevin Rudd argues that the idea was doomed from the beginning and that the grouping was going to be made redundant anyway, regardless of Australia’s actions. On a related note, read Prakash Gopal’s Strategist piece that sets the record straight on Australia–India relations and argues that bilateral ties between the two countries have never been better, despite historical baggage and memories of 2008. Grant Wyeth’s article in The Diplomat looks at the significance of AUSINDEX, the biennial naval exercise between Australia and India, which is currently underway.

The crisis between India and Pakistan that began in February continues to generate heated debate around the world. The latest salvo comes in the form of Lara Seligman’s scoop in Foreign Policy that refutes India’s claims of downing a Pakistani F-16 in the skirmishes between the two countries. She cites two senior US officials who say that a recent count found that none of Pakistan’s F-16s are missing. Clearly, much remains in doubt and unless India can provide conclusive proof to back its claims, it’ll find itself open to questions like those raised in a Strategist special report that suggests a theory for why India’s airstrikes missed their targets in Balakot.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s visit to China this week has generated a host of commentary on her perceived resetting of ties with Beijing. This piece in The Australian contrasts New Zealand’s approach to China with Australia’s. Zane Small calls Ardern out for turning a blind eye to China’s internment of millions of Uighur Muslims and takes a stand against Islamophobia globally, in this piece on Newshub.

The US House of Representatives has approved the cessation of support to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in their campaign in Yemen. While the bill must still be presented to the president (who is apparently likely to veto it), it’s still a step in the right direction. See Al Jazeera for more details.

And for some extra reads, see the ABC for the latest on Chinese expansion in Antarctica and Politico for a long read on how Britain lost the battle for Brexit.

Tech geek

Events in the US space sector are moving into higher gear. In the last couple of weeks, the Trump administration accelerated NASA’s return to the moon, bringing the proposed dates of a landing at its south pole forward from 2028 to 2024. Now, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is planning to demonstrate nuclear thermal propulsion in its ‘reactor on a rocket’, or ‘ROAR’, which would be essential for crewed deep space missions to Mars and beyond.

Staying in space, there’s an interesting article in Breaking Defense on Pentagon research and development chief Mike Griffin’s claim that the next generation of directed energy weapons will boost missile defence from orbit.

Amazon has announced its ‘Project Kuiper’, a ‘broadband in the sky’ mega-constellation of 3,236 satellites. There’s a great article in Nature on the challenges of traffic management in space.

And there are two important reports out on counter-space capabilities—one from US Center for Strategic and International Studies and one from Secure World Foundation.

The Australian Space Agency, meanwhile, has released a new strategy document, Advancing space.

Peter Layton has written a great article in The Interpreter on Japan’s fighter operations as China continues to probe its airspace. In War on the Rocks, have a read of a good analysis of airpower in the future by Heather Venable.

There’s also a good piece in The Strategy Bridge on how science fiction can be valuable for strategists.

This week in history

On 4 April 1964, US civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr was shot and killed while standing on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel in Memphis. See CNN for a glimpse into King’s life that includes a touching photo series.

Multimedia

The ABC’s Four Corners takes the climate change debate away from the political squabble and looks at the big picture, analysing Australia’s carbon emissions and whether we are on track to meet our targets. [44:56]

On a lighter note, see these National Geographic images focusing on India’s cultural heritage.

Podcasts

The latest episode of Arms Control Wonk looks into the Indian anti-satellite missile test and its implications. [35:56]

The Cyber Security Weekly Podcast has interviewed ASPI’s Malcolm Davis on all things cyber, space, China, USA, drones and more. [20:32]

CSIS’s China Power dives into China’s recent developments in unmanned systems and that technology’s future role in the military. [25:13]

Events

Sydney, 6 April, 6:00–8:00pm, University of Sydney: ‘Murder on the reef + Q&A’. Tickets here ($12).

Melbourne, 9 April, 6:00–7:00pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Artificial intelligence and the law: challenges for lawyers and judges’. Register here.

Canberra, 11 April, 5:45–7:15pm, ANU: ‘Canberra launch—China’s rise: prosperity, power and pushback’. Register here.

National security wrap: budget special

Intelligence and policing

AFP and ASIO get funding boost

The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and the Australian Federal Police have received $570 million over five years for counterterrorism and counter-intelligence operations. The AFP will receive $512.8 million, much of which is earmarked for improving digital surveillance capabilities. Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton says the AFP is conducting seven times more counterterror operations than it was five years ago.

Foreign interference in focus

A ‘foreign interference threat assessment centre’ will be established within ASIO as part of a broader $35 million effort to bolster intelligence and law enforcement agencies’ efforts against foreign interference. New cybersecurity teams and a cybersecurity response fund will be established by the Australian Signals Directorate to defend against cyberattacks. Interestingly, $8.5 million has been set aside to fund the prosecution of suspected foreign agents.

Child sex offender register to be established

Almost $8 million has been allocated for a national public register of child sex offenders, to be managed by the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission. The register will enable the public to identify convicted child sex offenders, giving access to their names, photos, dates of birth and general details about their crimes.

Defence

Show me the money

Though the federal government is close to pushing defence spending to 2% of GDP in 2020–21, that would require a 5.3% increase in real terms—around $3 billion—from 2019–20. Defence received a modest increase of 1.2% in real terms over the last financial year. Its allocation this year reaches $38.7 billion, hovering just above 1.9% of GDP.

Defence acquisition and shipbuilding

Defence Minister Christopher Pyne announced that the development of the submarine shipyard at Osborne North in Adelaide will continue, alongside the $535 million redevelopment of the frigate shipyard at Osborne South, which is scheduled for completion in 2020 in time for the start of construction of the Hunter-class frigates. Spending on the frigates will more than double next year from $222 million to $492 million as the project gathers momentum. Spending on offshore patrol vessels is also ramping up.

Defence will spend nearly $2.4 billion in 2019-20 for further purchases of F-35 fighters. At this stage, the government has approved the acquisition of 72 of the multi-role jets. Also, the remaining four of 12 Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft will be delivered in 2019–20 with $360 million of the $5.4 billion project cost to be spent in the coming financial year.

Defeat of Islamic State cuts ADF costs

The defeat of Islamic State ground forces in Syria and Iraq has allowed spending on Operation Okra to decrease from $306.5 million to $269.3 million. Overall the cost of operations in the Middle East has declined from $792.7 million to $703.6 million.

Cost of military operations in the Philippines revealed

Under Operation Augury, Australia provided military assistance to the Philippines at the height of the Marawi crisis, assisting in fighting against terrorists who had captured the city. The budget papers reveal that Augury cost Defence $40.1 million last year, up $12.5 million on the cost of its involvement in 2017-18.

Foreign affairs and aid

Australia sharpens Pacific focus

The 2019–20 foreign aid budget includes $2 billion for a new Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility, a regional bank designed to help Pacific island states avoid Chinese debt traps. Growing concerns over China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its increasing influence in the Pacific have led Australia to refocus its commitment to the region.

Cuts to overseas aid

Aid funding will be cut by $117 million in 2019–20. Direct bilateral aid to Pakistan will decrease from $39 million to $19 million. Other countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Nepal will also receive less financial support.

Australia has also cut funding for measures intended to tackle climate change like the Green Climate Fund. But it’s not all doom and gloom, funding for a range of global health and education programs has increased significantly.

The government says foreign aid is being used more strategically to fund specific infrastructure and development projects in the region. But non-government organisations and aid groups have criticised the measures, highlighting that there have been six consecutive cuts to Australia’s aid budget in the past decade.

Funding allocated to Jerusalem office

The budget includes $3.9 million over five years to establish a trade and defence office in West Jerusalem. Last year, the government  was heavily criticised for announcing it would move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, but decided against immediately doing so.

Immigration and border security

Government to close newly re-opened detention centre

The government will close the Christmas Island detention centre before 1 July, just weeks after reopening it at a cost of more than $185 million. The centre was reopened in response to the passage of medical evacuation legislation which ensured that refugees and asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru could be evacuated to Australia to receive urgent medical treatment.

A total of $178.9 million was committed to cover the costs of transferring people from Nauru and Manus Island for treatment, $3.2 million was allocated to increase the Australian Federal Police presence on Christmas Island and a further $3 million was set aside to reinforce the Operation Sovereign Borders ‘offshore strategic communications campaign’.

Refugee support services hit

Refugee support services have been dealt a $77.9 million blow in the budget. New arrivals will need to wait one year to access Centrelink’s job search program, as opposed to six months under the previous scheme. It’s estimated that 3,200 refugees will be affected by these changes each year. The government has also committed $64.2 million to ‘social cohesion’ programs, which will provide funding for sport, language and community activities that ‘foster belonging and break down barriers to social and economic participation’.

Immigration intake cut by 30,000

A cut to immigration numbers will reduce the cap on Australia’s intake from 190,000 to 160,000 per year. These measures are meant to complement the building of $15 billion worth of ‘congestion-busting’ roads and rail lines. The goal is to ensure sustainable population growth in major cities. Skilled migrants will be encouraged to settle in regional areas through the use of new visas.

India’s strike on Balakot: a very precise miss?

Ever since the stunning US success in the 1991 Gulf War, we have increasingly come to take precision bombing for granted. While militaries may sometimes misidentify a target, we assume that they can precisely hit what they are aiming at. ‘Precision strike’ is supposedly a proliferating, off-the-shelf commodity.

But India’s recent air strike on a purported Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist camp in Balakot in Pakistan on 26 February suggests that precision strike is still an art and science that requires both practice and enabling systems to achieve the intended effect. Simply buying precision munitions off the shelf is not enough.

Indian news media outlets have cited unnamed ‘senior military officers’ as saying that the Indian Air Force used the Israeli SPICE 2000 weapon to target four buildings at a terrorist camp in Balakot. The SPICE 2000 is the Israeli analogue of the US JDAM (joint direct attack munition), the weapon that has become the mainstay of coalition airstrikes in the Middle East. The SPICE 2000 is essentially a strap-on guidance kit that can transform a 2,000-pound ‘dumb’ bomb into a very precise way to deliver more than 400 kilograms of high explosives at a range of up to 60 kilometres. The weapon can be both GPS- and electro-optically guided. A 2,000-pound bomb causes substantial damage to structures.

Controversy has raged over whether India hit its intended targets. The Indian narrative has insisted that the strikes did hit their targets, ‘killing a large number of terrorists’. Indian Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa remarked, ‘If we plan to hit the target, we hit the target.’

The Indian narrative has also suggested that the strike used a SPICE 2000 variant with a reduced amount of explosive and the ability to penetrate through several floors of a building and even underground before detonating. This argument claims that such a weapon would only create a small entry hole and, while it would kill all occupants, it wouldn’t destroy the target building.

However, publicly available imagery acquired by European Space Imaging the day after the strike suggests that buildings at the camp were not visibly damaged or destroyed (see image below). This imagery, which is of a higher resolution than that available previously, shows conspicuously undamaged roofs that are not consistent with either a SPICE 2000 strike or a strike with other munitions. We believe that even a weapon with reduced explosive fill would cause damage to buildings that would be identifiable in the satellite imagery.

Satellite imagery © 2019 DigitalGlobe, a Maxar Technologies company—provided by European Space Imaging.

We suggest a possible alternative explanation.

One of us (Nathan Ruser) has previously published imagery identifying likely impact sites and comparing their locations with the locations of likely targets. The locations of the weapons’ impacts can be independently verified through three separate sources. First, photos taken by local journalists of impact craters have been geolocated by matching features visible in the images to features visible in satellite imagery.

Second, our previously published analysis of infrared satellite imagery indicates three circular areas—each roughly 30 metres in diameter—in which vegetation disappeared in the two days either side of the strike and which are consistent with explosive impact sites.

Finally, the images taken the day following the airstrikes and published by European Space Imaging allow for a higher resolution optical analysis, which indicates disturbances and craters in the areas previously identified as the likely impact locations.

There are two striking aspects to the images. The first is that all three weapons missed by similar (but not identical) distances, and certainly by much more than the 3 metre ‘circular error probable’ attributed to the SPICE 2000. The second is that all three weapons missed in virtually the same direction. These two factors suggest that the misses were caused by a systematic targeting error.

The strike could have relied on the SPICE 2000’s electro-optical guidance capabilities, but that would have required significant targeting support, including the development of topographically and architecturally precise modelling to program and guide the weapon. It is not a simple process and is dependent on considerable pre-strike imagery-collection and targeting infrastructure. It is likely that the Indian Air Force opted instead to rely solely on the weapon’s ‘set and forget’ GPS capabilities.

It is important to note two characteristics of GPS-guided weapons. The first is that GPS coordinates have three dimensions: elevation, latitude and longitude—something we tend to overlook in everyday life when we navigate using a mobile phone’s GPS function. Second, a glide weapon like the SPICE 2000 doesn’t fall vertically to its target; it follows an inclined trajectory. Therefore, an incorrect vertical coordinate will result in the weapon missing as surely as an error in latitude or longitude.

Such errors can occur for various reasons, including by neglecting to convert coordinates from one coordinate system, or datum, to another (a datum shift). One potential candidate in this case is the difference between GPS ellipsoidal height and orthometric height based on mean sea level (see here for an explanation). In northeastern Pakistan, the difference is around 33 metres, although in many areas the difference is not precisely mapped so it may be larger or smaller at a point such as Balakot.

One explanation for the miss is that the SPICE 2000 bombs were incorrectly programmed to fly precisely into GPS points that were, say, 33 metres above their intended targets (the buildings on top of the ridge line). They performed as programmed and then continued on their trajectories until they struck the valley beneath.

The image below correlates the identified impact sites, the buildings that were the likely targets and a discrepancy between ellipsoidal and orthometric height which we have assumed to equate to 33 metres above the target buildings. Presented in 3D, this correlation results in consistent, parallel trajectories indicating a consistent targeting error. The differences in the impact distances from the intended targets are accounted for by the steep terrain and the differences in elevation between the impact sites. While this diagram does not necessarily represent the actual trajectories of the missiles, it does suggest a systematic targeting error caused by the use of different vertical datums.

Satellite imagery © 2019 DigitalGlobe, a Maxar Technologies company—provided by European Space Imaging.

This explanation is lent further credibility by the fact that the resultant trajectories point back towards where India has claimed the weapons were launched from, just on the Indian side of the border.

This may not be the actual explanation. In a strike system that consists of French jets, Israeli weapons, US GPS and a targeting system that potentially used maps based on an older local Indian datum, there are other ways in which incorrect information could have been introduced or data shifts could have been omitted.

Despite the proliferation of precision weapons, actually completing the strike ‘kill chain’ is still difficult. Some militaries, such as those of the US and Australia, have spent years developing the technologies and systems that enable precision strike and employing the skills required in actual operations. But proficiency should not be taken for granted. It takes more than the weapon itself to launch a successful precision stike.