Tag Archive for: General

ASPI suggests

The world

Team Suggests is following the Turkey–US saga as the first Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems arrive in Ankara. For an explanation of why Turkey would purchase Russian weaponry despite the US’s stern warnings, see The National Interest. The US claims that, once deployed, the S-400 could collect sensitive information on the F-35, which explains why Turkey has now been ejected from the program. And Foreign Policy has an interesting read on how the US is using the F-35 program to increase its influence among its allies while also leaving them totally reliant on it for their security.

It’s been argued that US President Donald Trump’s racist attack on four non-white congresswomen this week undermines the foundational ethos of the US constitution. In The New Yorker, Susan Glasser contends that the rhetoric around sending the women back to where they came from (despite three of the four having been born in the US) is all part of a Trump tactic to rev up support among his far-right base in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election. The Atlantic has two fabulous reads on this theme: Ben Zimmer argues that attempts to water down the racism accusation on semantic grounds fall flat as racism ‘cannot be decided solely by dictionary definitions’; and Adam Server sounds a sobering warning that Americans’ actions now will determine their future as a nation. This CNN article points out that other world leaders’ silence on the issue will further weaken the foundations of the liberal international order.

A US report has found that radiation levels on some atolls in the Marshall Islands—a testing ground for US nuclear weapons in the 1940s and 1950s—are up to 1,000 times higher than areas around Chernobyl and Fukushima. The findings come amid heightened discussion surrounding nuclear weapons both nationally and internationally. The Conversation notes that even if Australia wanted to acquire nuclear weapons, it simply doesn’t have the infrastructure or industry to build them, and, in The Strategist, Rod Lyon suggests there are some scenarios that would prompt Australian nuclear proliferation. As Iran increases its uranium enrichment, The National Interest believes it would take at least a year for the country to develop a nuclear weapon. And a recent blunder by a Canadian senator revealed the locations of US nuclear weapons throughout Europe! Military Times has the details.

Debate about the Pacific islands has always been prominent in Australia’s security discussion. Recently, Hugh White has mounted the argument that Australia doesn’t have ‘much time’ for the South Pacific and must now abandon traditional ways of strategic thinking, step back and make way for Chinese dominance in the region. The Lowy Institute’s Jenny Hayward-Jones is also sceptical about Australia’s future role in the Pacific as Chinese influence grows. On the other side of the fence, see this article in The Diplomat for an explanation of the importance of the US–Australia relationship, particularly in terms of our joint interests in Asia and the Pacific.

Last week, 22 member countries of the UN Human Rights Council called China out over its mass detention and human rights violations of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. This piece in The Diplomat lays out what happened at the UNHRC meeting. The ABC Four Corners investigation into the plight of the Uyghurs has spurred a national conversation about the need for all countries to take a stand on the issue. Read ASPI researcher Nathan Ruser’s Strategist special report revealing the possible real nature of the so-called re-education camps run by the Chinese Communist Party in Xinjiang. This Guardian editorial sums it up well: nations that don’t speak out are complicit in Chinese repression of the Uyghurs.

Tech geek

It’s 50 years since Apollo 11’s Eagle lander touched down on the moon’s Sea of Tranquillity with Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin at the controls, so it seems apt that this week’s edition of ‘Tech geek’ be space-themed.

Space News has a special ‘Apollo at 50’ edition that covers key issues as the US prepares to return to the moon.

At a NATO defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels, a new space policy was announced that makes it a full operational domain, alongside land, sea, air and cyber. The decision was made in response to the challenge posed by anti-satellite weapons being developed by Moscow and Beijing. France is also creating a space force, similar to the proposed US version.

There are a range of geopolitical, economic and national security factors driving the current effort to get US astronauts back onto the lunar surface as early as 2024. On Radio National’s Late Night Live, Phillip Adams hosted a discussion with Everett Dolman, Namrata Goswami and yours truly, Malcolm Davis, last night.

Are American teenagers losing interest in space? There’s interesting analysis on NASA Watch which shows that while American kids are more interested in instant fame on YouTube, Chinese kids want to go to space.

The differences between the space and cyber domains are blurring and the threat to satellites isn’t just anti-satellite weapons. As this Chatham House analysis shows, cyberattacks on satellites are an increasing concern.

And simply because it’s cool—the hoverboard. What are its potential implications for future army mobility? Even French President Emmanuel Macron is asking this question.

This week in history

As noted in ‘Tech geek’, Apollo 11 launched 50 years ago this week. It took four days for the mission to reach the moon, and the first humans ever to make that giant leap left 21 hours and 36 minutes later. See here for a list of the technologies we take for granted that were developed because of the moon missions. This week five years ago, MH17 was shot down over Ukraine. See this piece in Mashable for a look into that horrifying event.

Multimedia

Still celebrating the Apollo 11 launch, see Al Jazeera for a photo series depicting original images from the event, this tweet by Buzz Aldrin himself and this interactive ABC piece.

Also on Al Jazeera, Inside Story investigates why Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles is so controversial. [25:30]

Podcasts

See The New Yorker: Politics and More for a look back at the Apollo 11 launch and a comparison with the emerging space race of today. [16:22]

ASPI’s Fergus Ryan spoke on On China about Australian politicians’ engagement with the Chinese diaspora on Chinese social media platforms and how it shapes Australian politics. [43:35]

Events

Canberra, 23 July, 12.30–1.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘Cascades of crises: great power collaboration in prevention’. More info here.

Sydney, 23 July, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘What’s wrong with Australia’s Middle East policy?’ Tickets here ($25).

ASPI suggests

The world

Australian student Alek Sigley is reported to have been detained in North Korea. The news came just hours before Prime Minister Scott Morrison sat down with US President Donald Trump in Japan. It’s thought that Sigley may be being held ahead of the US president’s visit to South Korea and a possible third summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un. See the Financial Review for how Sigley’s detention could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Pyongyang.

The prime minister is in Japan for the G20, which is underway in Osaka. Morrison’s meeting with Trump focused on alliances and trade and was one of a number of bilateral meetings he’s holding with other leaders at the summit—though Chinese President Xi Jinping isn’t one of them. See the Japan Times for why the outcomes of the one-on-one meetings are likely to be much more significant than whatever the G20 leaders manage to jointly agree to.

The Lowy Institute has released its annual international policy poll, which highlights how Australians view the changes in the global security landscape over the past year. Some stand-out findings include climate change ranking as number one on the threat index and the Australian public’s trust in China and the US both hitting their lowest points since the poll’s inception in 2005. A major source of this distrust could lie in the US–China trade war. Don’t cash in your savings just yet, though, as the Financial Review claims the impact on Australia will be minimal, trimming only around 0.07 percentage points off GDP growth over the next two years.

Following the recent developments between the US and Iran, this brief history looks at relations between the countries since 1953. (Spoiler alert: it hasn’t been smooth sailing.) See this analysis of recent Iranian actions in the Persian Gulf and whether they signal the beginnings of open conflict. Speaking of which, Iran isn’t backing down from a potential confrontation, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remaining defiant in the face of US sanctions and rising tensions between the countries. For a glimpse into Iran’s sophisticated offensive cyber capabilities, visit the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and see how Iraq will react to the building pressure from both Iran and the US in Foreign Affairs.

And if you’re wondering how a potential clash between the US and Iran fits into a global geopolitical view, see the New York Times for how the situation in the Persian Gulf is actually all about China. Robert D. Kaplan leans heavily on Halford Mackinder’s ‘world island’ theory, but China’s presence in Pakistan and the focus of the Belt and Road Initiative add weight to his argument. Kelly Magsamen from the Center for American Progress was a bit more succinct, tweeting: ‘If we go to war with Iran, we lose this century to the Chinese. It’s actually that simple. The stakes are that high.’

For some extra reading, see this interesting long read in ProPublica on what really happened in the 2016 incident involving the capture of 10 US Navy sailors by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Tech geek

It’s been a long time coming, but the US is finally developing a successor to the AIM-120 missile. The ‘AIM-260’ Joint Air Tactical Missile is being rolled out in response to rapid development of increasingly long-range Chinese and Russian air-to-air missiles.

There’s an interesting article in The Strategy Bridge on why geography and geopolitics still matter, even in the era of cyberwarfare. After all, cyberspace still depends on infrastructure, which is based in the physical world and affected by geography.

A key concern for the US Navy in the Persian Gulf is swarm raids against its ships by Iranian fast attack craft. In response, it’s set to undertake a study of how to defend against such an attack. There’s some interesting analysis (and here) on Iranian swarm boat attacks, as well as a report on Iran’s growing ability to challenge US naval power in the Gulf.

What does religion have to do with nuclear weapons? According to Dmitry Adamsky, there’s a clear link between the Russian Orthodox Church and the country’s nuclear capability. See here for a review of Adamsky’s book, Russian nuclear orthodoxy: religion, politics and strategy.

A recent dynamic in military affairs has been the growing influence of science fiction—particularly military science fiction—in thinking about future warfare. The Central Blue is keenly aware of this and their collection is worth browsing through.

This week in history

This week in 1950, North Korean soldiers crossed the 38th Parallel and invaded South Korea, sparking the Korean War. There were 339 Australians killed among the estimated 2.5 million people who lost their lives between 1950 and 1953. Sometimes dubbed ‘the forgotten war’, it’s worth remembering that it still isn’t over.

Multimedia

A must-watch! The Atlantic has released a short documentary that follows the process taken by Russia to turn an Estonian army officer into a double agent [15:29]. For more on the story, see this long read.

Al Jazeera brings you the story of Sarajevo’s librarians and how they saved thousands of books and manuscripts from destruction when the city was under siege. [46:35]

Podcasts

ASPI brings you the first of three special episodes of Policy, Guns and Money that focus on our international conference, ‘War in 2025’, which was held this month. [15:36]

Listen here for CSIS’s analysis of the difficulties associated with recent developments on the Korean peninsula, including the future of US–North Korea relations. [25:38]

Events

Canberra, 2 July, 5.30–7.30 pm, Australian Strategic Policy Institute: ‘Publication launch: Protecting critical national infrastructure in an era of IT and OT convergence’. Register here.

Sydney, 3 July, 6–7.30 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Sydney ideas: Can we make food security failsafe in the age of climate change?’ Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

US President Donald Trump has formally kicked off his re-election campaign just 500-odd days out from the 2020 election. The New York Times dives into Trump’s claims that he raised US$24.8 million in the 24 hours following his re-election announcement. And the Independent has fact-checked the Donald’s campaign speech which seems to take note of the line sometimes attributed to Adolf Hitler: ‘If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.’

Five years ago in March, Malaysia Airlines flight 370 vanished with 239 passengers and crew on board. The Atlantic now provides a deeply disturbing yet utterly engaging long read following key personnel in the investigation and raising evidence that has emerged since the jet disappeared. A must-read.

There was a major development in the investigation of another Malaysia Airlines disaster this week. The team investigating the shooting down of MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014 announced that four suspects would be tried over the missile attack that killed 298 people, including 38 Australian citizens and residents. The suspects, three Russians and a Ukrainian, are thought to have obtained a Russian BUK missile launcher, though they’re not accused of actually firing the missile. They’re almost certain to be tried in absentia when proceedings begin in the Netherlands in March next year. Read this piece in The Conversation for more on the legal details of the case. For Russia’s part, it says there’s no evidence it was involved and, somewhat bizarrely, Malaysian PM Mahatir Mohamad backed the claim and said Russia has been made a ‘scapegoat’.

In some uplifting news, Time reports that Canada’s Arctic permafrost is melting 70 years sooner than scientists expected. What does that mean? Well, apart from confirming that the earth is warmer than at any time since that ground froze thousands of years ago, the melting of permafrost in both Canada and Russia could mean the release of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere that were unaccounted for in any analyses of global emissions. Read this BBC feature for more.

Staying inside the Arctic Circle, residents of a village in Norway are planning to declare themselves a ‘time-free zone’ to make the most of 24-hour daylight in the summer months.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has long been suffering from inter-ethnic violence that has forced more than 300,000 people to flee this month alone, according to UN News. There have been additional reports of sexual violence, civilian casualties and revenge killings. The Los Angeles Times delves into why foreign aid is so important to the DRC. And Time investigates the current Ebola crisis and those who are trying to help.

Moving west, Al Jazeera has all you need to know on the recent triple suicide bombing in Nigeria and the Council on Foreign Relations breaks down Amnesty International’s report on human rights violations in the country.

And finally, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project has estimated that the death toll from the Yemen conflict has now exceeded 90,000. In some good news for the country, the UK’s court of appeal has declared Britain’s arms sales to Saudi Arabia unlawful due to its involvement in the Yemen conflict. And the US Senate has voted to block Trump’s US$8 billion arms sale to the Saudis.

Tech geek

As tensions rise further in the Persian Gulf after Iran shot down a US RQ-4A Global Hawk drone, there’s a great piece in Defense One about the implications of depending on high-cost platforms in contested environments.

For those following the unfolding story of US Navy encounters with unidentified aerial phenomena  in 2004, as well as in 2015 and 2016, Tyler Rogoway of The Drive has done a series of articles that make excellent reading. His latest is out and it continues the discussion about just what ‘tic tac’, ‘gimbal’ and ‘go fast’ might be. Tech geek thinks they might be some yet-to-be-revealed black projects.

There are two articles on hypersonic missiles that are good reading. The first, in the New York Times, looks at how hypersonics could transform warfare, and the second, by the Center for Public Integrity, examines the implications for arms control.

Politico has some interesting analysis of US and Chinese military competition in space. Space News has a piece about the need for a US space force and The Diplomat looks at the rise of Asian military space forces.

Russia has updated its venerable Backfire bomber to the new Tu-22M3M standard, which has upgraded avionics, as well as an ability to carry new cruise missiles such as the KH-32 and the Mach-10 KH-47 Khinzhal hypersonic missile. An old dog with some deadly new tricks!

This week in history

On 19 June 1953, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg were executed in the United States for espionage. They were accused of leaking jet propulsion, radar and sonar technology to the USSR as well as nuclear weapons designs. Also this week (in 1215), King John placed his seal upon the Magna Carta, kickstarting democracies, reasserting the rule of law and establishing the idea of a jury. See this video by the British Library for the details.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera has two videos worth watching, one on the final hours of Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi [47:25], and another on who will become Britain’s next prime minister [25:10].

See the immense Hong Kong protests in photos with The Atlantic’s photo series.

Podcasts

ASPI non-resident fellow Elsa B. Kania joins the National Security Podcast to talk ‘battlefield singularity’. Listen if you want to figure out whatever that is. [40:48]

The Falkland Islands has an abundance of seafood and meat, but fruit and vegetables can be hard to get a hold of. The BBC’s The Food Programme looks at how to get nutrition in one of the most remote places on earth. [27:36]

Events

Brisbane, 25 June, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Regional migration governance and secure climate mobility in Oceania’. Tickets here ($15).

Canberra, 27 June, 5.30–7.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘All the world’s problems: rethinking Burma in the 21st century’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

The people of Hong Kong are waging a strong protest against a proposed law that would allow them to be extradited to mainland China. Here’s a useful collection of CNN stories that covers all bases. News.com.au documents the protests in pictures and argues that the powerful images illustrate what Hong Kongers are fighting to protect: their civil liberties. This Wall Street Journal article highlights how the people leading these protests took lessons from the 2014 Umbrella Movement and are better prepared for violent retaliation from law enforcement personnel. China has adopted all sorts of tactics to curb the protests, from authorising cyberattacks on the Telegram app to censorship and propaganda, as Shannon Tiezzi writes in The Diplomat. The China Daily’s spin, that 800,000 protesters demonstrated in support of the extradition bill, takes the cake.

The annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit is underway in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The Diplomat published a brief but useful explainer. The Hindu has covered the highlights of the meeting  between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the summit in which the pair reportedly vowed to speed up the resolution of boundary issues. Modi is said to have given Pakistan the cold shoulder, which, as Shekhar Gupta explains in this video on The Print channel on YouTube, may be a wise strategy on India’s part.

See this incisive piece by H.S. Panag, which shows how bad the state of Pakistan’s economy is. The dire economic situation is forcing Islamabad to extend an ‘olive branch’ to New Delhi, Panag writes, but it’s not a genuine attempt to restore peace.

The Yemen conflict has escalated once more after the country’s Houthi rebels launched a cruise missile at a Saudi Arabian airport, wounding 26. The New York Times has the details in a piece that also explains how the war is affecting US–Iran relations. The Washington Post investigates what happened to the Stockholm Agreement signed between the warring parties almost six months ago. The Australian covers US President Donald Trump’s move to use emergency powers and bypass Congress to approve a US$8 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia.

Trump has announced that 1,000 extra US soldiers will be deployed to Poland, one of only a handful of NATO countries that meets the 2% of GDP spending commitment on defence. Foreign Policy asks what impact such a small increase will actually have, while the BBC has more on the plan, outlining the absence of any permanent US commitment to the country. And see The National Interest for a dive into NATO’s eastern front, where efforts to bolster military power have not gone unnoticed but work still needs to be done for greater deterrence.

Finally, see this interesting read by Foreign Policy, which compares the global movement to ban nuclear weapons to the need to reduce carbon emissions.

Tech geek

It’s been a big week in F-35 news. The US Defense Department has reached an agreement with Lockheed Martin to buy 478 more of the jets in a deal worth US$34 billion. That could have ramifications for Australia, as the cost of the F-35A variant that the RAAF has ordered is set to drop to US$80 million per plane, down US$9.2 million on the most recent production lot.

News of the deal came just two days before a series of reports were released highlighting a broad sweep of problems with the F-35 program.

According to Defense News, ‘deficiencies’ include issues with the F-35’s stealth coating and airframe that restrict it to short bursts of supersonic speed, spikes in cabin pressure that are painful for pilots, and problems with the jet’s handling at certain angles of attack. Read the series of articles documenting these and other problems here.

Lockheed Martin was quick to rebut the reports, releasing a statement that addressed the issues one by one and said that they are ‘well understood, already resolved or on a near-term path to resolution’. That’s despite Defense News reports that some of the problems identified ‘may not ever get a full fix’.

Trump has revealed his preferred design for the new Air Force One. Two planes based on the Boeing 747-8 are being built and the proposed new design ditches the iconic colour scheme that’s been on presidential transport since the 1960s for one that’s reminiscent of what Trump has on his personal jet.

And in case you think you’ve had a bad week, Japan’s defence ministry has admitted that its use of Google Earth resulted in a miscalculation of the elevation angle of nearby mountains when it selected a site to base its Aegis Ashore missile-defence system.

This week in history

The 10th of June 1967 saw the end of the Six-Day War between Israel and its neighbours. The BBC has the whole story.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera has put together a series of graphs and charts which highlight the devastating figures associated with child labour around the globe.

Listen to this ABC story which uncovers the not-so-tasty truth that humans are each eating, on average, enough plastic to make a credit card every week. [3:11]

India’s The Print analyses Modi’s renewed ‘Look East’ policy in this YouTube video. [23:05]

Podcasts

Clear and Present Danger has a special episode on how the Chinese government is controlling the flow and content of information, especially with regard to its own history. [46:40]

For an in-depth discussion on everything from the protests in Hong Kong and Russia to Saudi arms sales, listen to Pod Save the World. [1:01.33]

This episode of World Affairs looks into the newly decentralised nature of Islamic State following its loss of territory in the Middle East. [59:01]

Events

Canberra, 17 June, 6–7 pm, Australian National University: ‘Australia and the war in Afghanistan’. More info here.

Canberra, 17 June, 6–7.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘Security and diversity: an evening with Catherine McGregor’. Register here.

Sydney, 18 June, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘The battle for Venezuela’. Tickets here ($25).

National security wrap

The beat

Senior police officer charged by Victorian anti-corruption watchdog

In Victoria, Commander Stuart Bateson has been suspended after he was charged by the state’s anti-corruption watchdog on three counts of disclosing a restricted matter. At this stage, it’s not known what information was leaked. Bateson confirmed in a statement that he intends to fight the charges.

Western Australian police pilot new technology

Police in Western Australia have contracted Perth-based company Modis to develop cloud and artificial intelligence technology to help sort and process information. A trial of the Microsoft-hosted system showed it drastically decreased the time needed to find and sort relevant information. The time taken to undertake one investigation was cut from six weeks to 24 hours.

UK drivers warned to pay European fines

Police forces across Europe are using a mutual legal assistance scheme to pursue British drivers disobeying road rules on the continent. It has been estimated that up to half a million UK drivers a year don’t pay fines issued in France after leaving the country. It’s not yet clear how Brexit will affect the operation of this scheme.

Checkpoint

Data breach hits US border agency

US Customs and Border Protection says that a breach of its systems has resulted in tens of thousands of images of people crossing the US border into Mexico being stolen. The agency says images and data were stored on the systems of a subcontractor without official consent. This follows a report by The Register that files from the ‘sole provider’ of numberplate-reading software used at the US border had been shared on the dark web.

Blacklisted Russian visits European countries 70 times

The European Union has been urged to review its border controls after a Russian lawyer blacklisted by the EU Parliament visited EU countries more than 70 times in the past four years. After allegedly purchasing a passport from the Caribbean island of Saint Kitts and Nevis, Andrei Pavlov was able to travel to the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and France. Pavlov has been accused by the EU of being part of a group that stole US$230 million from the Moscow city tax office. Pavlov denies all wrongdoing.

Border closed amid Kenya–Somalia dispute

Kenya has closed a section of its border with Somalia in the southeastern county of Lamu. The Kenyan government says that the closure is part of its operations against terrorist group al-Shabaab and was done to combat illegal trade and human trafficking along the Lamu border region. The closure comes after the Somali government auctioned offshore oil-prospecting rights in a disputed area off Lamu County that’s claimed by Kenya in an ongoing maritime dispute.

CT scan

Australian jailed for assisting Islamic State

Australian electrician Haisem Zahab has been sentenced in New South Wales to nearly seven years in prison after helping the Islamic State terror group research and design guided missiles and a laser warning system over the internet. The judge presiding over the sentence noted that the high degree of planning, sophistication and analysis over an extended period of time indicated the very serious nature of Zahab’s crime.

South Australia creates counterterrorism squad

South Australia’s government has announced that it will create a specialist counterterrorism squad. Over four years, the government will spend $3 million on a team designed to protect the community from mass-casualty attacks. The squad will include highly trained police, mental health specialists and a data analyst.

Hezbollah-linked attack foiled in London in 2015

It’s been revealed that months after Britain backed the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, police in London foiled a major bomb plot by the Tehran-linked Lebanese organisation Hezbollah. The group was reportedly stockpiling materials including three tonnes of ammonium nitrate, the fertiliser used to make the 1995 Oklahoma City bombs. During police raids, thousands of disposable ice packs full of ammonium nitrate were discovered and a man in his 40s was arrested.

First responder

Congressional panel passes bill to extend 9/11 compensation

A US House of Representatives panel has passed a bill to extend funding for first responders exposed to toxic dust during and after the 9/11 attacks in 2001. In February, it was announced that the fund created in 2011 would cut future payouts by up to 70% due to an increase in the number of claims made by sick emergency service workers. The issue drew worldwide attention when comedian Jon Stewart made a heartfelt appeal to Congress to support the bill.

Ebola detected in Uganda

A five-year-old child from the Democratic Republic of Congo who travelled with his parents to Uganda has been diagnosed with Ebola. It’s the first reported case in the country, which has been preparing itself against the spread of the disease since it broke out in the DRC last year. Having already vaccinated around 4,700 health workers against the deadly virus, Uganda is now in response mode.

Dengue fever expected to spread with climate change

A study published in the journal Nature Microbiology has found that global warming will lead to an increase in the spread of dengue fever, as the range of the mosquitoes that carry it grows. A map created by researchers shows that under a moderate warming scenario, up to 2.25 billion people would be at risk of contracting the disease in 2080. Currently, about 100 million people are infected with the disease each year.

ASPI suggests

The world

‘Asia’s premier defence summit’, the Shangri-La Dialogue, was held last weekend and was attended by defence ministers, government officials and think-tank representatives from across the region. Sam Sachdeva’s Newsroom report captured the highlights well. In his Interpreter piece, Michael Fullilove argued that while acting US defence secretary Patrick Shanahan’s performance was poor, it was his ‘plain-spoken, tough-minded and funny’ French counterpart, Florence Parly, who stole the show. ASPI’s Graeme Dobell shared his on-the-ground insights from what he calls the annual ‘speed dating’ event for defence ministers, in a series of Strategist pieces.

Bilahari Kausikan’s incisive opinion piece in the Straits Times is a must-read. He talks about the dilemmas of middle and rising powers, especially those (like Singapore) that have civilisational links with the Middle Kingdom and are caught in the rivalry between the US and China.

This week marked the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. There were some great pieces of analysis published across the board, including on The Strategist, which has all your bases covered. If you’re interested in reading further (and you should be), these New York Times articles (here, here and here) take you back in time and share an underlying message: ‘never forget’. Michael Auslin, writing in Foreign Policy, argues that the Chinese Communist Party’s attempts to whitewash history and curb dissent at all cost speaks of an insecure regime that’s doomed to failure. The ABC conducted an experiment on how Chinese youth react to a picture of the iconic ‘tank man’. The result? While some defended the Chinese government, most were unwilling to talk, even those who knew about it. Some students even ran away.

The level of press freedom in Australia has come in for a lot of scrutiny in the wake of federal police raids on News Corp journalist Annika Smethurst’s Canberra home and the ABC’s Sydney offices earlier this week. The raids were in relation to the leaking of documents that led to the publication of stories on plans to expand surveillance powers and possible crimes committed by Australian troops in Afghanistan.

There’s been a strong reaction to the story around the world. The BBC issued a statement saying the raid on the ABC was ‘deeply troubling’ and the New York Times ran an article that asks whether Australia is indeed the most secretive democracy in the world. Columbia Journalism Review noted that the raids didn’t invoke even more restrictive laws passed last year and that the public-interest defence that protects journalists in Australia is ‘loosely worded’. There are concerns that even if journalists aren’t jailed as a result of such publications (though that’s a real possibility), the raids will have a major chilling effect on the willingness of whistleblowers to come forward.

The ABC’s Barrie Cassidy argues that the situation presents a real and present danger to Australia’s press freedom and that the raids look more like a show put on to deter both potential whistleblowers and investigative journalists. In a statement, ABC chair Ita Buttrose said they were ‘clearly designed to intimidate’.

The episode has already sparked calls for legislation to protect journalists and their sources, the public’s right to know, and free speech more broadly.

Tech geek

Global thermonuclear war is ‘a strange game’. As the line from the 1983 movie War Games goes, ‘the only winning move is not to play’. But The Drive notes that the movie (one of tech geek’s favourites) also had a huge impact on US President Ronald Reagan’s thinking on cyber warfare and resulted in the first presidential directive on cybersecurity.

The US Air Force’s B-1B Lancer bomber (aka ‘the Bone’) is back in the news, and not for good reasons. There are serious structural problems associated with the jets’ ageing, accentuated by insufficient resources to sustain mission readiness. Fewer than 10 of 62 aircraft are available for operations.

And the next Ford-class aircraft carrier, USS John F. Kennedy, won’t be able to operate the F-35C until 2027, and even then some of its essential functions won’t work. Meanwhile, the US Navy may be arming its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with anti-missile lasers as soon as 2021.

As the US performs simulated military strikes near Iran, there’s some interesting analysis on how US–Iran tensions may affect Israel in War on the Rocks. Staying in the Middle East, CNN broke the news that China is assisting Saudi Arabia to boost its ballistic-missile capabilities.

Finally, the general in charge of the US Air Force’s Space Command has made it clear that space is a warfighting domain and that any future conflicts with Russia and China will be partially fought in space.

This week in history

Seventy-five years ago this week, some 6,000 Allied ships left England as part of the biggest invasion fleet the world has seen. Along with hundreds of aircraft, they attacked France to liberate it from German occupation and open a second front against the Nazis that would ultimately lead to Germany’s defeat less than a year later.

It’s hard to imagine any endeavour on such a scale today, but the BBC has published an archive of the reports its journalists compiled on and around 6 June 1944 which goes some way to putting us in the shoes of those who were there. The Economist’s republished leader from 10 June 1944 is also worth reading if you want to see the first draft of history in a little more detail—it lauds Winston Churchill as the architect of the attempt to liberate Europe, though it recognises that the effort wouldn’t have been possible without American help and the bloody war waged by Russia on the Eastern Front.

Podcasts

History Hit has two special D-Day episodes, one on the stories of individual valour and heroism on the day and one on the ‘unexpected history’ of the event. [41:16] and [42:30]

On The Diplomat, Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran dissect the Shangri-La Dialogue and share their takeaways on great-power rivalry and the future of the Indo-Pacific. [34:35]

Multimedia

The latest episode of the ABC’s Four Corners is a must-watch. ‘Tremble and obey’ is an in-depth look at the Chinese government’s crushing of the democracy movement at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Check out Icemap, an interactive map of the last Eurasian ice age that shows sea levels, glacier coverage and changes in temperature over a period of about 20,000 years.

Events

Canberra, 11 June, 6–7 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, ‘Multilateralism and Australian interests: where to next?’ Register here.

Sydney, 13 June, 6–7.30 pm, United States Studies Centre, ‘The future of the Australia–US alliance: report launch and panel discussion’. Tickets ($10) here.

ASPI suggests

The world

On Tuesday, The Strategist revealed that Australian helicopter pilots had been targeted by lasers while participating in this year’s Indo-Pacific Endeavour in the South China Sea. Euan Graham, who broke the story, contextualised the episode against the more recent history of interactions between the Australian and Chinese navies in the South China Sea. ASPI’s Michael Shoebridge underlined the importance of calling out aggressive Chinese actions when they occur. Of course, Beijing denies any wrongdoing. The Washington Post provides a more longitudinal view of what China’s increasingly aggressive posture in the South China Sea portends in terms of its global ambitions.

The US–China trade war is expanding and might be morphing into a conflict based on technology. In a series of special reports, The Economist has examined a number of facets of the conflict, explaining why trade itself can no longer be the basis for the relationship between the two countries. The series looks at the problem with laying ever more tariffs on Chinese goods and why Xi Jinping’s favourite part of America is Iowa—his connections there run deeper than you might think. Also revealing is this piece on the growing contempt for the ‘sore loser and … dangerous spoiler’ that many in China see the US to be.

And it’s not just China coming in for US attention on the trade front. Trump announced—via Twitter, naturally—that goods imported from Mexico will be subject to a 5% tariff that could ramp up to 25% if illegal migration from Mexico into the US doesn’t stop. The move has already been described as ‘mindbogglingly stupid’ and could put a stick through the spokes of the yet-to-be-ratified replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement.

In the wake of the sumo- and golf-infused meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Donald Trump in Tokyo, a number of analysts have asked what Japan’s leader is trying to achieve with his flattery of the president. Is it a mystery, given that previous attempts seem to have achieved little to Japan’s benefit? Or is it all about maintaining the alliance?

And if you’re still scratching your head about the real significance of 5G, this explainer from Vox gives a good overview of where the technology is at, what it might bring about and why it’s become the source of so much geopolitical tension.

Elections are now done and dusted for Australia, Indonesia and India, although for some the dust has taken a while to settle. Jakarta grappled with Prabowo Subianto’s challenge to Joko Widodo’s win, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent the week finalising his new cabinet and rolling out his vision for the next five years. Constantino Xavier argues in The Print that India’s invitation to BIMSTEC leaders for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony shows that India refuses to let its cold relations with Pakistan impede its outreach to its other neighbours. Pradeep Mehta opines in Live Mint that ‘Modi 2.0’ needs to live up to his promise of inclusive development.

In Australia, Scott Morrison has gotten onto the front foot where foreign policy’s concerned. Putting meat on the bones of his signature Pacific ‘step-up’, the prime minister is scheduled to make Solomon Islands his first foreign destination in his new innings. Grant Wyeth’s piece in The Diplomat nicely lays out the significance of the visit in the context of Australia’s growing worries about Chinese presence in the Pacific islands. Mark Kenny, writing in The Conversation, makes the point that the islands are looking for substantive actions, not empty words, from Australia on climate change. As Michael Shoebridge argues in his Strategist post, Australia’s leaders ‘need to show they are listening to and acting on this voice from the Pacific to have credibility in building on the Pacific step-up’.

But just in case you didn’t get enough election-related reading done, we’ve got another one coming in the form of an unplanned vote. Israelis are going back to the polls after Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a governing coalition. See the New York Times for the reasons behind the snap poll, which is set for 17 September.

Getting a little bit meta for a minute, The Economist asks whether think tanks can survive in a world in which people have ‘had enough of experts’.

Tech geek

Robert Zubrin, a vocal space advocate and author of The case for Mars, in which he proposed his ‘Mars Direct’ plan for rapid missions to the red planet, has a new book, The case for space. This time he’s arguing that the US should pursue military space supremacy by deploying anti-satellite weapons and ‘fighter satellites’.

There’s an interesting article in The Daily Beast which looks at disturbing reports of a eugenics program as the centrepiece of emerging Russian ideology, as well as Russian genetically engineered bioweapons. Meanwhile, China is genetically engineering monkeys to be more like humans. This follows the country’s announcement of genetically engineered babies last year.

Not quite tech, but certainly geeky, Chatham House has released a great interactive infographic on the resource trade. And with trade tensions intensifying, China is hinting that it may use its dominance of the world’s ‘rare earth’ resources as a weapon against the US.

The Washington Post has come up with an interesting scenario in that shows how current tensions between the US and Iran could spiral into open military conflict.

There’s intensifying controversy over whether Russia is conducting low-level nuclear tests that would violate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and the US intelligence community thinks that China may double its nuclear arsenal over the next decade.

There’s a good article in War on the Rocks on hypersonic weapons, which urges readers not to over-hype their impact on future warfare. And with the INF Treaty due to expire in August, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has analysed the US’s options for new intermediate-range weapons.

The week in history

Spanning this week and leading into the first week of June in 1989 were what’s become known in the West as the Tiananmen Square protests. This Bloomberg article runs through the genesis of the protests—which began in April and spread to hundreds of cities across China—and looks at the impact the events of 1989 had on China as a whole.

Podcasts

War on the Rocks podcast Jaw-Jaw talks to ASPI distinguished fellow Peter Mattis about the real intentions of the Chinese Communist Party. [45:42]

The National Security Podcast talks all things Quad ahead of the next meeting of what some see as a ‘minilateralist myth’. [44:13]

China in the World by the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center looks at China–India relations one year on from the supposed ‘reset’ at the Wuhan summit. [36:27]

Multimedia

India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, died 55 years ago this week. Here’s what he said about Pakistan in an interview with an American journalist, weeks before he passed away. [3:09]

This Al Jazeera documentary depicts the story of a nomadic tribe in Lebanon that has been rendered stateless and now finds itself vulnerable. [45:05]

Events

Canberra, 3 June, 5.30–7 pm, Australian National University, ‘Data for the planet: driving solutions for resilient cities, disaster risk reduction and infectious disease’. Register here.

Perth, 4 June, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs (Western Australia), ‘David Irvine on cyber security and cyber conflict’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

How good are elections? There’s been a lot of voting around the world so we’re dedicating a large part of this week’s ‘Suggests’ to those festivals of democracy.

In Australia, Indonesia and India, the incumbents have all been returned to power in what should mean a general maintenance of the status quo in the Indo-Pacific.

The biggest surprise was in Australia, where most pundits and the polls tipped a win for Labor and Bill Shorten. See the Guardian’s eight charts that show some of the reasons why the Coalition was able to retain power. This piece in The Conversation argues that Labor’s defeat is partly explained by some key historical trends.

There are now questions about the value of the hold that opinion polling seems to have on Australian politics and politicians. The Coalition’s Newspoll results were famously quoted by Malcolm Turnbull when he rolled Tony Abbott as prime minister, something that haunted him until his own demise last year when Scott Morrison took over. Poor polls were partly behind the ousting of Kevin Rudd for Julia Gillard in 2010 and, in turn, for Rudd 2.0 before the 2013 election.

As Labor pollster John Utting asked in the Financial Review, ‘Did polling create a parallel universe where all the activity of the past few years, especially the leadership coups and prime ministerial changes, were based on illusions, phantoms of public opinion that did not exist?’

The Sydney Morning Herald and the Age have said they’re looking at the value of polling and how the reporting of it serves voters, and have already dropped polling company Ipsos.

The New York Times argued that Morrison’s win was down to a populist wave similar to that which propelled Donald Trump to the US presidency. Matthew Knott rebuffed that argument, writing in the Sydney Morning Herald that the Morrison victory represents an upholding of the status quo and wasn’t Australia’s ‘Trump moment’.

Narendra Modi’s victory in the Indian election, by all measures of logic, was more or less guaranteed; however, nobody could’ve predicted the landslide in his party’s favour, let alone the complete annihilation of the major opposition parties. It wasn’t a Modi wave, it was a TsuNaMo (for the uninitiated, NaMo is the equivalent of ScoMo). The Strategist’s two pieces on the theme, one looking at the structural reasons for the BJP’s victory and the other exploring the possible next steps for India’s foreign policy, are well worth your time. Milan Vaishnav’s article in the Hindustan Times tries to make sense of the Indian electorate’s behaviour. Meanwhile, a piece in The Print sets out a six-point economic agenda for the new government.

Not everyone’s happy with the Indian election outcome, of course. Much like in Australia, a certain section of the liberals and moderates find themselves in despair. Pratap Bhanu Mehta’s opinion piece in the Indian Express ruminates on how the BJP’s sweeping victory stands to damage the liberal traditions of the Indian polity. And if you’re interested in a deep dive into the tough foreign policy choices facing the new Modi government, Ashley Tellis’s long read published by the Carnegie Endowment is unmissable.

Indonesia’s so-called ‘surprisingly quiet’ election has ceased to be so—Joko Widodo’s re-election as president has led to widespread backlash from opposition leader Prabowo Subianto’s supporters. This article in the Sydney Morning Herald explains why the results have sparked mob violence on the streets of Jakarta. Yohanes Sulaiman’s article in the South China Morning Post last month explores the link between Prabowo’s political problems and his supporters’ radical Islamic orientation. Alexander Arifianto’s article in The Strategist this week succinctly lays out the broad contours of the Islamic challenge that Jokowi faces in his new term. Al Jazeera published a photo series documenting the violent protests that took place in Jakarta this week.

Voters in Europe are heading to the polls for the European Parliament election. There are predictions that Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party will receive up to 30% of the vote in the UK. The results won’t be announced until Sunday, but Farage may have already won by helping to unseat another prime minister. Theresa May is expected to be out of a job within days.

Using the collapse of the far-right party in Austria’s coalition government as an example, this piece in Foreign Policy argues that now may be the time when European voters begin to return to establishment politics.

Tech geek

The US Air Force is testing new decoy technology. BriteCloud, developed by Leonardo, is an advanced expendable decoy system which captures signals from an incoming missile, analyses them against an on-board threat library, and emits a spoofing signal to cloak the targeted aircraft. It can be ejected from existing flare and chaff dispensers. See the video here.

South Australian company DEWC Systems is developing a constellation of electronic warfare satellites which will be launched from the proposed Whalers Way launch complex on the Eyre Peninsula. The constellation will comprise 20 cubesats that can detect electronic emissions on the earth’s surface from low-earth orbit.

How might asteroid mining be done? Greg Rowlands provides an overview of various methods and the practical risks.

CSIS’s ChinaPower project has put out a great interactive infographic on how China is modernising its navy. The People’s Liberation Army Navy is already larger than the US Navy, and it is rapidly eroding the US Navy’s qualitative edge. By the mid-2030s, China might have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines.

Japan looks like it may set up its own (smaller) version of the proposed US space force—the Space Domain Mission Unit—by 2022, which will have a focus on space situational awareness.

Staying in space, NASA has released the full plan for project Artemis—the return to the moon by 2024. But getting money from Congress may be challenging.

With tensions between the US and Iran still high, and continuing on from last week’s tech geek, there’s a great article by Max Boot on the risks of a US–Iran war in the Washington Post.

This week in history

The ‘Pact of Steel’ between Germany and Italy was signed this week in 1939. The deal agreed that in the event of war, the two countries would support each other economically and militarily, and that neither country would agree to peace without the other’s consent. Japan was set to join the pact but pulled out only to join the Axis powers the next year.

Multimedia

The ABC’s The Party Room sifts through Australia’s election result and looks at what next for Labor and who is likely to make up the new Morrison cabinet when it’s sworn in. [34:18]

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran’s podcast in The Diplomat dissecting the Huawei crisis and geopolitical rivalry between the US and China is worth a listen. [26:21]

Touching on the same theme of great-power competition, don’t miss Lowy’s newly launched podcast’s first episode by David Shambaugh. [31:08]

Planet Money examines why Deutsche Bank kept lending money to Donald Trump after his businesses defaulted on loans and when other major banks wouldn’t. [26:41]

A documentary on Al Jazeera features interviews with Russia’s foreign policy thinkers and delves into the drivers behind Moscow’s decision-making. [47:59]

Events

Brisbane, 28 May, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, Queensland, ‘India’s national security election, 2019: The rise of the watchmen’. Register here.

Melbourne, 28 May, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs, Victoria, ‘Strangers next door? Australia and Indonesia after elections’. Register here.

Canberra, 6 June, 9 am – 5 pm, Australian National University, ‘Workshop: How does the “Pacific” fit into the “Indo-Pacific”? The changing geopolitics of the Pacific Islands’. Register here.

ASPI suggests

The world

Australia has lost its longest-serving Labor prime minister. Bob Hawke died yesterday at the age of 89. He was known as a larrikin who loved Australia (as well as a punt and a beer or two), and was loved by millions of Australians in turn. But some of his most notable achievements were on the world stage. When Chinese student protests were brutally quashed in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989, he decided—without consulting his cabinet—to offer asylum to Chinese students in Australia and their partners and children. More than 40,000 were eventually granted visas. Watch his emotional speech in the aftermath of the massacre here.

Hawke also abhorred racism and, starting in 1969, campaigned for an end to apartheid during his time as president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions. Later, he was an influential figure in the Commonwealth in initiating an investment boycott of South Africa.

Former US president Bill Clinton and former UK prime minister Tony Blair have been among those who’ve paid tribute to Hawke and his legacy.

And if you get sacked for not turning up to work today in honour of Hawkie, well, your boss is a bum.

Australians all over the country are beginning to salivate at the thought of a delicious, freedom-flavoured democracy sausage served with sauce on a slice of white bread and a side of election ballot. Polls open at 8 am tomorrow for those who aren’t among the more than 4 million voters to have cast their ballots early. To the important stuff: here’s the history of the democracy sausage, and this interactive map lets you find your nearest snag, cake or coffee.

Otherwise, Bloomberg has everything you need to stay up to date with the election, and the Museum of Australian Democracy asks the big question—why have elections, anyway?

The BBC has two pieces that are well worth a read: and article on why Australian politics is ‘toxic for women’ as female representation continues to fall amid allegations of bullying and misogyny, and a visual representation of the election in charts. Writing in The Strategist, Graeme Dobell highlights what the politicians haven’t talked about during the campaign. Finally, and in case you’re still confused as to who is leading our nation, here’s a Twitter feed that provides half-hourly updates on who the PM is.

Staying on the election train, see this piece by ASPI’s Mali Walker for an analysis of the impact that disinformation is having on Indonesia and its democracy.

Did you know that casualties are 14 times higher among women and children than among men during a disaster? On women, peace and security, see Jacqueline Westermann’s piece for The Strategist highlighting why climate change is also a gender issue. And The Strategy Bridge dives into how the Pentagon can further NATO’s successes in the WPS area through actions like the appointment of high-level gender advisers.

Yemeni Houthi rebels have used sophisticated drone technology to strike Saudi Arabian critical infrastructure deep within Saudi territory. See the Financial Times for the details and Al Jazeera for a great background piece on advances in the drone technology employed by the rebels. The BBC has footage of another attack in which a drone exploded over a Yemeni military base, reportedly killing six soldiers.

Tech geek

Can a computer feel the need, the need for speed? Maybe, as DARPA is exploring how AI can be used in air combat, specifically in dogfighting. With the apt acronym ‘ACE’, which stands for ‘air combat evolution’, the project seeks to design AI that lets a human pilot concentrate on managing the overall air battle, while the AI manages tactical air combat manoeuvering. The project will be important in manned–unmanned teaming scenarios, with manned fighters supported by unmanned aerial combat vehicles like the ‘loyal wingman’.

China has begun deploying its H-6N heavy bomber, which is equipped with the new CH-AS-X-13 air-launched ballistic missile. The combination could potentially give China the ability to strike northern Australia from Chinese bases in the South China Sea.

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has released a new report on global nuclear-weapons trends. It’s filled with useful, up-to-date information and numerous charts that give a comprehensive perspective on global nuclear stockpiles.

Although it was written back in 2014, Forward 2035, a report prepared by the Defence Science and Technology Organisation, is well worth reading for its thought-provoking analysis of where key technological and global security trends are heading.

With tensions on the rise between the US and Iran, two key articles should be on your reading list. A great piece written back in 2015 by Zachary Keck shows the operational and logistical challenges that would face the US if it ever tried to invade Iran. And Newsweek takes a look inside potential US planning for war with Iran.

This week in history

This week in 1955, the Warsaw Pact was established in response to the integration of West Germany into NATO in the same year. The collective security clause of the pact was never invoked. See the NATO website for a great retro graphic comparing the military power that resided on either side of the Iron Curtain.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera’s Inside Story covers the likelihood of open conflict in the Persian Gulf as tensions between Iran and the US continue to intensify. [25:10]

Reuters brings you images of the squalid conditions inside a migrant camp set up by US Border Patrol in Texas.

Podcasts

Pod Save the World covers this week’s latest, from the US–China trade war to the conflict in Afghanistan and rising tensions with Iran. [1:10:53]

If you’re following what’s happening in Syria, Global Dispatches has more detail on the intensifying conflict. [21:27]

The Council on Foreign Relations podcast records a long discussion on the illiberal shift in global politics that is well worth a listen. [1:19:13]

Events

Canberra, 20 May, 5.30–7.30 pm, Australian National University and International Committee of the Red Cross: ‘Practising humanity amid changing conflict’. More info here.

Hobart, 21 May, 6.30–7.30 pm, University of Tasmania: ‘European Union Ambassador Dr Michael Pulch: 10th Anniversary Sir James Plimsoll Lecture’. Register here.

There are still tickets available for ASPI’s international conference, War in 2025, which will run from 12 to 14 June in Canberra.

ASPI suggests

The world

The latest UN climate change report contains some distressing facts and figures. See the media release here which provides the main points. Vox dives in on the most worrying conclusion of the report—that around one million species are at risk of extinction within the next few decades, while Al Jazeera digs a little further into some of the other climate change threats the report outlines. Bringing it home, a Lowy Institute poll has found Australians now see climate change as a greater threat to Australia’s vital interests than terrorism, cyberattacks by state actors and the North Korean nuclear program.

US President Donald Trump has made good on a vow to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods. A deadline for the hike in tariffs passed without a breakthrough in talks between US and Chinese officials, though negotiations will continue on Friday in Washington. China has already said it will retaliate— see the Financial Times for how it will take all ‘necessary countermeasures’. The BBC has summarised the trade war and the proposed new tariffs in five charts and the New York Times has all the background you need. For a different look at the US–China relationship, The Strategy Bridge takes a step back, looking at the strategic competition between the two nations over the past three decades. Meanwhile, ASPI non-resident fellow Elsa Kania has analysed the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military power in a brilliant Twitter thread.

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, writing in Foreign Policy, lays out an impassioned plea for the protection of her country’s ‘self-made’ democracy in the face of China’s growing power in the region.

The US has sent an aircraft carrier group and B-52 bombers to the Middle East in response to escalating tensions with Iran. Vox has an explainer on the rising tensions and this piece in The Strategist views it as a race against time until the 2020 US presidential election. Staying in the region, see Foreign Affairs for a piece arguing why the US-led coalition needs to stay in Syria and the Washington Post for some distressing news on the future of the conflict there as Russia escalates its strikes on the rebel-held city of Idlib. Charged Affairs has an interesting article on the need for US disengagement from Yemen while Al Jazeera illustrates the terrible decisions some Yemenis must make to find enough money to feed themselves and their families.

The latest issue of Foreign Affairs has some thought-provoking reads on America’s foreign policy options in the post-Trump era; Stephen Walt’s essay on the decline of American power, especially, is well worth your time. Check out the latest issue of China Brief, which features articles covering the latest updates on the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front activity, including one from ASPI’s Alex Joske.

It seems that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has decided to test Trump’s patience yet again testing three short-range ballistic missiles recently—including two this week. Alex Ward, writing for Vox, believes that the tests are partly aimed at sending ‘an angry message’ to Trump over the lack of progress in the bilateral negotiations since the Hanoi summit. This New York Times article provides an overarching view of US–North Korean relations and Trump’s problematic ‘art of the deal’ diplomacy with Pyongyang. After the first test last week, a Bloomberg article predicted that the US’s meek response would encourage North Korea to conduct more tests.

For the latest updates on the mega election of the year, read Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s interview with Hindustan Times, in which he spells out his party’s strategy and why he’s confident of a victory. Amy Kazmin traces the growth trajectory of Hindu nationalism under Modi in this Financial Times article.

Tech geek

In a key development in plan for humans to return to the moon, Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin company this week unveiled the ‘Blue Moon’ lunar lander, which is being designed to take both cargo and, eventually, people back to the moon.

While commercial space companies appear poised to make real progress towards a return to the moon, NASA seems to be losing momentum. Here are some of the views of key Apollo- and Shuttle-era astronauts on why.

The US Navy has confirmed that its next air combat aircraft, the F/A-XX, will not use the same airframe as the US Air Force’s ‘Penetrating Counter Air’ program. That brings to an end the common platform experiment that started with the F-35, and will move the US back to a series of platforms akin to the ‘century series’ of fighters in the 1960s.

And in a related development, the USAF has just successfully tested anti-missile lasers for its next- generation platform.

As if hypersonic weapons aren’t going to be deadly enough through sheer speed, there is now work underway to integrate artificial intelligence into the weapons to make them even more effective.

And how will the next great-power conflict play out? James Lacey in War on the Rocks wargames the next big war to find out.

This week in history

This week proved to be a busy, and at times tragic, period in recent history. In 1937, the famous German airship, the Hindenburg, crashed, and years before that, the RMS Lusitania was sunk by German U-Boats in World War I. An event that contributed to America’s entry into the war. This week is also the anniversary of VE Day, on which Germany surrendered and World War II ended in Europe. See this new photo series to see how countries all over the world celebrated.

Multimedia

Reuters has a devastating photo series on life in the ruined Syrian city of Aleppo.

See Al Jazeera’s 101 East on the corruption scandal surrounding former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak. [26:00]

Podcasts

World Affairs investigates how the social contract established in the years following WWII has been broken. First episode of a three-part series. [54:50]

For a step back in history, listen to When Diplomacy Fails for the nuts and bolts of the Treaty of Versailles, which was presented to the Germans 100 years ago. [32:04]

Listen in to a special episode of Policy, Guns and Money with the former commander of US Cyber Command and director of the US National Security Agency, Admiral Mike Rogers. Includes some updates (spoilers) on Game of Thrones battle strategies. [34:26]

Events

Melbourne, 13 May, 5–7pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Ethics, AI and unintended consequences’. More information here.

Canberra, 14 May, 6–8pm, Australian National University: ‘First 100 days of the next government’. Register here.

Sydney, 15 May, 5:45–7pm, Lowy Institute: ‘The global challenge of far-right extremism: what we’ve learned from Christchurch’. Register here.