Tag Archive for: General

The five-domains update

Sea state

BAE Systems has started construction on HMS Cardiff, the second of Britain’s Type 26 City-class frigates, which are set to replace the current anti-submarine warfare Type 23 frigates. The new class will ‘contribute to UK and allied security, but also make a strong economic contribution to the country’, says defence procurement minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan. The project milestone also provides a confidence boost for Australia’s own frigate program, which is using the Type 26 design as the baseline for the new Hunter-class warships.

According to a report by the US Naval Facilities Engineering Command, the earthquakes that hit Southern California in July caused more than US$5 billion in damage to the Naval Air Weapons Station in China Lake. The station supports research, development and testing of cutting-edge weapon systems, and getting it up and running again is now a major priority for the navy. It’s just one of several US military facilities that have been severely damaged in a series of recent natural disasters.

Australian shipbuilder Austal has signed a contract to construct two Cape-class patrol ships for Trinidad and Tobago. Metal cutting has already commenced under the $126 million contract, and delivery of the the vessels is expected in the second half of 2020. Austal has already built 10 Cape-class boats for the Royal Australian Navy and the Australian Border Force.

Flight path

Russia has conducted another round of surveillance missions over the US, this time photographing a number of military facilities in Hawaii. The mission was conducted as part of an agreement under the Treaty on Open Skies, which allows member countries to perform aerial surveillance activities over the airspace of other parties to the treaty. The US last undertook an Open Skies surveillance mission over Russia in February.

A Syrian Air Force Sukhoi SU-22 fighter jet has been shot down over the rebel-held province of Idlib, near the town of Khan Sheikhoun. Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, has claimed responsibility for the attack. Though the group didn’t say how it shot the aircraft down, news agencies assert that the warplane was targeted and hit by a ground-based anti-aircraft missile.

The Royal Air Force is about to receive its 160th and final Eurofighter Typhoon from BAE Systems, 16 years after the first aircraft was delivered. A series of upgrades will keep the Typhoons operational until their planned retirement in 2040. Under Project Centurion, new Meteor, Brimstone and Storm Shadow missiles will be integrated on the Typhoon fleet within the next four years. Further upgrades to the aircraft and EJ2000 engine will be conducted under the long-term evolution program.

Rapid fire

Ceremonies marking the 53rd anniversary of the Battle of Long Tan were held across the country on Sunday to remember the sacrifices made by Australians who served in the Vietnam War. Long Tan, which took place on 18 August 1966, was the most famous battle fought by Australian soldiers during the war. Against all odds and in torrential rain, 108 Australian and New Zealand soldiers fought off as many as 1,000 Viet Cong fighters. Australian casualties were 18 dead and 24 wounded.

Cubic Defence New Zealand has won a contract to train Australian soldiers for chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) defence missions. The company will deliver a ‘simulation-enabled collective training capability’ that is ‘capable of projecting synthetic CBRN effects over large numbers of soldiers’ in a live training environment. The technology is meant to give soldiers experience in the tactical and logistical effects of a CBRN attack.

In centuries past, the humble yak has helped China defend its strategic interests from invaders coming over the northern steppes. Nowadays, the People’s Liberation Army still uses yaks to patrol China’s far-west regions of Tibet and Xinjiang where modern transport and horses can’t venture. Yaks are well suited for traversing the high-altitude rocky escarpments and snow-capped mountains because of their adapted respiratory system and warm outer coats.

Final frontier

Satellite imagery showing increased activity at the Imam Khomeini Space Center in recent weeks suggests Iran is preparing to launch a satellite into orbit following two unsuccessful attempts at the start of the year. Amid allegations that the launch could contravene UN Security Council resolution 2231, Tehran has maintained that there’s no military component to its launches. It is expected that the launch will take place before the end of the year.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is teaming up with researchers from Caltech, MIT and KAIST (a South Korean science and technology university) to participate in DARPA’s Subterranean Challenge. The team sent six robots to the competition in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. They’ll be competing against 10 other teams, including one from Australia, led by CSIRO’s Data61 project. The competition has the potential to assist with developing space technology for exploration and prospecting, as the robots are required to map and locate hidden objects underground using artificial intelligence.

Virgin Galatic has announced that its new headquarters and customer centre at Spaceport America in New Mexico is ‘operationally ready’, with journalists offered the opportunity to tour the facility this week. Virgin’s mothership—VMS Eve—has already been moved into the new facility, but it remains unclear when commercial flights will start.

Wired watchtower

Twitter has identified a significant information operation involving hundreds of accounts linked to China. The information operation—directed at undermining the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong—promoted paid advertisements and tweets that supported China’s version of events. The accounts have since been removed from Twitter. Facebook has also removed several pages, groups and accounts originating from China that it says were associated with ‘coordinated inauthentic behaviour’ centred on Hong Kong.

Researchers from Israeli cybersecurity firm vpnMentor revealed last week that a database containing the fingerprints of one million people, along with the corresponding metadata, was inadvertently made freely available to the public. The biometric data, used by the UK Metropolitan Police, as well as banks and defence contractors, was kept in a centralised database controlled by South Korean security company Suprema ‘as a means of identifying people attempting to gain access to buildings’. The vulnerability has since been addressed.

Government officials in Tonga are considering whether to ban Facebook amid escalating tensions online. Tonga is currently grappling with a ‘digital war’ following the government’s proposal of a new set of rules that would transfer certain powers of the king to the government. Monarchists and pro-government forces have mobilised ‘thousands of mostly anonymous Facebook accounts’ to direct abuse and threats against each other.

ASPI suggests

The world

To launch this week’s Suggests we take you into space which is becoming an increasingly contested domain. A report by ASPI’s Malcolm Davis examines the implications conflict in space would have for the ADF, noting Australia’s heavy reliance on space for both defence and civilian capabilities. As France moves to form its own space force, the International Institute for Strategic Studies analyses the country’s first defence space strategy. This piece from The National Interest has more detail on how France plans to arm its satellites and why it has Russia worried. Check out Newsweek for details on the new humanoid robot Russia plans to send into space. This isn’t the droid we’re looking for.

At the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum in Tuvalu, Prime Minister Scott Morrison faced the heat, with climate change dominating this year’s meeting. Differences between Australia and Pacific island countries led to clashes between Morrison and other leaders and almost caused the talks to collapse completely.

This Strategist piece argues that if ScoMo can’t commit to genuine climate action, he won’t achieve the level of engagement he’s hoping for. Defence Connect takes a look at Australia’s commitments in the region through the defence lens while the Lowy Institute takes a step back to look at the state of the region, the flashpoints and the issues. And see this piece by Chatham House for a deep dive into the different approaches taken by Australia and New Zealand when it comes to dealing with Chinese influence in the Pacific.

Speaking of Chinese influence, there’s been continued reaction to Liberal MP Andrew Hastie’s piece warning that Australia must understand and tackle the challenge posed by China or risk repeating the failures of the past.

The Chinese embassy accused Hastie of ‘Cold War ideology’ and nationalist newspaper the Global Times said his comments amounted to ‘incendiary vilification of China’. Some Australian business leaders have hit out at Hastie. Kerry Stokes, for example, described the piece as ‘intemperate’. A rift also appeared in government ranks.

Liberal colleague and former ambassador to Israel Dave Sharma made probably the most well thought out contribution to the discussion of Hastie’s piece with a Twitter thread outlining the challenges in dealing with rising powers, and in determining whether they can be accommodated in the global order. ‘The ideology of the rising power is everything here, because it reveals intent, and informs whether it will accept a privileged place in the current order, or if it demands a new order entirely,’ Sharma wrote, adding ‘the ideological direction and ambition of China has become far more pronounced’ and that our strategy needs to recognise and reflect this.

The collective security of Europe remains a topic of debate as China’s sway on the continent grows and Brexit creates more uncertainty. The Hill offers an insightful piece on the threats a rising China poses to Europe and the inability of the US military to fight a conflict in Asia and protect its NATO friends in Europe. This takes us back to last month’s Strategist article on whether Europe has the capacity to become a global power in the face of growing challenges.

And one for all the real-estate buffs out there, US President Donald Trump has reportedly been floating the idea of buying Greenland. We can only imagine that will be met with some icy responses. Keeping with the property theme (and if everything above has you heading for the hills), the New York Times has looked at the boom in business for high-end ‘doomsday’ bunkers that include swimming pools and movie theatres.

Tech geek

China is undertaking advanced genetic engineering and research into the enhancement of human performance for the People’s Liberation Army as part of its ‘civil–military fusion’ strategy. Elsa B. Kania and Wilson VornDick have highlighted how the PLA is pursuing a ‘brave new world’ in areas such as military neuroscience and biotechnology.

Russia’s attempts to develop a nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed cruise missile—known as the SSC-X-9 Skyfall—suffered another setback earlier this week with an explosion during a weapons test that killed five and released radiation into the area around the test site. The Washington Post looks back at US efforts to develop a similar weapon in the 1960s. Jeffrey Lewis, otherwise known as @ArmsControlWonk, has a good thread discussing his team’s analysis of the incident.

When it comes to space, most attention focuses on SpaceX and Blue Origin, but Sierra Nevada Corporation has its own spacecraft—‘Dream Chaser’—a small, unmanned space shuttle designed to ship cargo to the International Space Station and support other on-orbit activities. Dream Chaser is set to fly on a new expendable rocket from 2021.

And staying in orbit, a Finnish company called ICEYE is developing small satellites to offer sub-metre synthetic aperture radar imaging. This is important because the technology is dropping the cost of space-based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, which is very useful for aspiring space powers—like Australia!

Finally, the hackers contracted by the US military succeeded in breaking into an F-15 fighter jet at the Def Con cybersecurity conference in Las Vegas.

This week in history

On 15 August 1947, the British government relinquished control of India, partitioning the country into two countries—India and Pakistan—which have since fought three wars and created one of the most militarised border zones in the world in Kashmir. See this short video by Al Jazeera on the history of the division of India between 1946 and 1999.

Multimedia

North and South Yemen united in 1990, but the crisis there could tear the country apart once more. See Al Jazeera’s Inside Story for more. [25:00]

The Center for Strategic and International Studies has released a multimedia report on the dire state of fisheries in the South China Sea that looks at overlapping territorial claims and what large numbers of Chinese trawlers might be doing near the Spratly Islands (hint: it might not be fishing).

Podcasts

The Lowy Institute has released a panel discussion on the current Hong Kong crisis, the implications for the global economy and China’s image in the world. [58:49]

The Rohingya are among the most persecuted minorities in the world. As crimes against their basic human rights continue, Global Dispatches discusses whether justice can or will be served. [29:01]

Events

Canberra, 19 August, 5:30–7:30pm, ASPI: ‘Report launch: Strong and free? The future security of Australia’s north’. Register here.

Melbourne, 20 August, 1–2pm, University of Melbourne: ‘Trade, national security and the US–China conflict: Can world trade law provide a solution?’. More info here.

National security wrap

The beat

Australia’s new security college in the Pacific

Ahead of this week’s Pacific Islands Forum meeting, the Australian government announced plans to set up an Australian Pacific Security College in partnership with the Australian National University. Police and security officials from the region will be provided training through the security college, with the hope that it will encourage ‘closer links between the Australian security apparatus and security officials across the Pacific’. The $19 million investment comes amid rising concerns in Australia’s security establishment about China’s steadily expanding investment and influence in the region.

Mafia boss unaware of tapped smartphone

Italian police have issued a number of arrest warrants following the recent trip of an Italian mafia boss to Toronto. The mafia boss warned associates that the Canadian police could be listening to their conversations, not realising that his own smartphone had been ‘transmitting his closed-door conversations’ to the Italian authorities.

Facebook helps French police make arrest

Facebook has assisted in the arrest of a man accused of assaulting and threatening to kill another man by alerting the French gendarmes to a livestream of the attack. Using images posted on social media and the streamer’s Facebook account, police were able to track the offender to a house in the rural area of Britanny, France, where they made the arrest. Facebook used the French government’s Pharos platform—a public portal for reporting illicit online content—to alert the police.

Checkpoint

New Zealand prepares to roll out visa waiver system

On 1 October, New Zealand will roll out its Electronic Travel Authority (ETA). The system will screen travellers offshore for any border entry and immigration risks. The ETA will apply to citizens from countries on New Zealand’s visa waiver list and require them to declare any criminal history before they are cleared to board any flights or ships travelling to New Zealand. Immigration New Zealand’s general manager Stephen Dunstan said that under the pre-arrival vetting an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 people could be turned away from the country annually.

US border intercepts drop below 100,000 a month

On Friday, US Customs and Border Protection released a statement saying that, in July, it intercepted 82,049 individuals who either ‘crossed the border illegally or were deemed inadmissible at Southwest border ports of entry’, a 21% decrease from the numbers posted in June. The reduction comes as the US steps up collaboration with Mexico and Guatemala to crack down on the flow of migrants coming from Central America. Despite the drop, the figure is still more than double that at the same time last year.

Migrants beaten at Bosnia–Croatia Border

A group of 18 migrants from Pakistan and Iraq have alleged that they were beaten by Croatian police while attempting to cross illegally into Croatia from Bosnia. The group were trying to reach the European Union, but were transferred to a Bosnian hospital after being found by local police. Authorities in Bosnia say they will now start recording injuries sustained by migrants as the Croatian government begins investigating the incident.

CT scan

India claims Pakistan supporting terrorists to fuel Kashmir unrest

Indian media is reporting that Pakistan has sent between 150 and 200 Kashmiri locals to terrorist training camps near the Line of Control (LoC) following India’s revocation of Article 370. The Times of India cited unnamed Indian intelligence officials, claiming that Pakistani militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed had met with Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency to finalise a plan to attack Indian Kashmir ahead of India’s independence day on 15 August. The commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corp, claimed that terrorists are ‘attempting to infiltrate every night’, across the LoC, warning that the Indian army would respond to any armed provocations from Pakistan.

Jihadists at odds over fundraising goals

The spread of jihadist fundraisers in Syria reflects an ‘ongoing lack of unity’ as they compete for funds, according to BBC Monitoring. A number of fundraising platforms have been established in response to the Russian-backed siege by Syrian government forces in Northern Syria. One fundraiser seeks to free Islamic State women held in detention camps while another provides fighters with basic food, military equipment and medical supplies.

IS using tactics of attrition in Nigeria

Islamic State’s West African Province, or Boko Haram, has claimed responsibility for several attacks on the Nigerian army in the northeast of the country as part of its campaign of attrition launched in early June. More than 20 Nigerian troops were killed or injured as IS seized military vehicles, weapons and supplies. IS detailed its latest attacks on the encrypted messaging service Telegram.

First responder

A cure for Ebola?

The World Health Organization and the National Institutes of Health have announced that healthcare workers in the Democratic Republic of Congo have held clinical trials for a number of experimental treatments to combat Ebola and found that two ‘appear to dramatically boost survival rates’ of those infected by the virus. This is a significant development in the effort to combat Ebola—building on the success of the experimental vaccine trialled last year to prevent health workers and frontline responders from being infected by Ebola.

Typhoon Lekima wreaks havoc in China

More than one million people were evacuated by authorities before Typhoon Lekima made landfall early on Saturday morning, according to Chinese officials in Zhejiang province. Roughly 700,000 people had been settled in over 12,000 shelters as winds of up to 187 kilometres per hour hour battered China’s east coast. The typhoon damaged an estimated 34,000 homes and has caused around 14.57 billion yuan ($3.06 billion dollars) in economic losses. The death toll stands at 33, with another 16 people still missing.

Legionnaires’ outbreak claims first victim

Last week, US health officials confirmed that an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease has left one person dead, and resulted in at least 12 confirmed cases and 61 probable cases of the dieases. The exact source of the outbreak is yet to be identified but has been linked to the Sheraton Atlanta Hotel. Some guests who visited or stayed there between 12 June and 15 July were affected by the outbreak. The hotel remains closed while public health authorities determine whether it was the source of the Legionella outbreak.

The five-domains update

Sea state

China’s ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Ni Jian, has said that China is considering using its navy to help escort its commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf if a ‘very unsafe situation’ eventuates. China is also contemplating joining the US-led Operation Sentinel, despite the ongoing trade war between the two nations.

Russia is planning to build two new nuclear-powered icebreakers to be delivered in 2024 and 2026. It already has three in production, which are due to be commissioned by 2022. Once in service, the five ships will be the largest and most powerful icebreakers ever constructed and will allow Russia to ‘strengthen its leadership in the development of the Arctic’, according to Alexei Rakhmanov, president of the United Shipbuilding Corporation.

The US Navy has dropped charges against four Navy SEALs for allegedly abusing detainees in Afghanistan in 2012. The navy is currently being plagued by several other scandals, including the recent acquittal of Special Operations Chief Edward Gallagher over murder and attempted murder charges dating back to 2017. Newly appointed Chief of Naval Operations Vice Admiral Michael Gilday says that he’s determined to ‘quickly and firmly’ resolve the ongoing investigations into alleged misbehaviour.

Flight path

Last Thursday, US and Canadian fighter jets intercepted a pair of Russian bombers just off the coast of Alaska, according to the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Though the bombers entered the Alaskan and Canadian air defence identification zones, they stayed clear of both countries’ sovereign airspace. Russia’s motives for the excursion are still unclear, but this isn’t the first time a Russian aircraft has entered the North American air defence zones.

The Chinese-made CH-4B drone, which is in the same size class as the US MQ-1 Predator drone, seems to be falling out of favour among its most prominent users in the Middle East. Only one of Iraq’s CH-4Bs is operational out of a fleet of more than 10, according to The National Interest. While maintenance issues are apparently to blame, operators have been dissatisfied with the CH-4B’s overall performance.

A scramjet engine built by Northrop Grumman for the US Air Force Research Laboratory has achieved a record-breaking 13,000 pounds of thrust in hypersonic conditions. The Arnold Air Force Base in Tennessee underwent a two-year upgrade to accommodate the ‘truly remarkable’ scramjet engine. The project is indicative of the desire in the US military to push the boundaries of hypersonic research, and will feed into the development of other designs, such as scramjet-powered missiles.

Rapid fire

As part of Australia’s biggest peacetime investment in defence, the government has approved $500 million in funding for the first stage of Project Greyfin. It’s part of a planned $3-billion investment in Australia’s special forces over 20 years to ensure that they have ‘cutting-edge capabilities’ in intelligence, science and technology. Liberal MP and former SAS officer Andrew Hastie said that the investment would build ‘discreet insertion and extraction capabilities’ akin to those of the US special forces.

An explosion at a Russian missile test site on Thursday killed five nuclear engineers and wounded three others. It was just the latest in a string of explosions at Russian military facilities last week, at least one of which was caused by a lightning strike. Russia expert Jeffrey Edmonds said ‘there’s a tendency for accidents to happen in Russia’ because its ‘culture of aggressiveness and risk-taking’ doesn’t mix well with outdated military infrastructure.

Taiwan’s military budget is set to grow ahead of the upcoming presidential election, after the Chinese defence ministry affirmed its ‘resolve to “liberate”’ Taiwan in a white paper released at the end of July. President Tsai Ing-wen’s government has committed US$11.3 billion for 2019, up 5.6% from last year, as part of her re-election platform. Her government intends to bolster Taiwan’s defence by allocating money for new US weaponry and lobbying the Pentagon to allow the sale of additional F-16 fighter jets.

Final frontier

Chinese startup LinkSpace has successfully completed the third test of its reusable rocket. The RLV-T5 rocket climbed to 300 metres before independently returning to its launchpad 50 seconds after launch. The rocket is part of China’s efforts to reduce the cost of space launches and deploy more satellites. The test is another example of the growing influence of China’s private industry in space—Chinese firm iSpace successfully delivered a satellite into orbit last month.

SpaceX has announced that it will offer rideshare opportunities for small satellite operators ‘looking to put lighter payloads into orbit’. The initiative will allow customers to pre-book a spot on a Falcon 9 for a specific launch date with the guarantee that the rocket will go up. This is a significant development given that other rideshare missions rely on the main payload, which means small satellites are at risk of being delayed by the larger customer.

Arianespace has successfully launched the second satellite to ‘join the constellation of satellites’ that make up the European Data Relay System. The system, also known as the ‘SpaceDataHighway’, uses lasers to transmit satellite images and data to earth in almost real time, enabling faster responses to emergency situations. It’s the product of a partnership between the European Space Agency and Airbus, and is part of the agency’s efforts to encourage more public–private partnerships in large-scale space projects.

Wired watchtower

Researchers from IBM’s ‘X-Force Red’ have developed a proof-of-concept device called a ‘warship’ to demonstrate a cyberattack that can be carried out through the mail. The method of attack—called ‘warshipping’—is a modern take on the Trojan horse, in which an attacker uses a package to conceal a device. Once the package is delivered, the device can be used to infiltrate a targeted wi-fi network and steal data or passwords.

Hackers were given the opportunity over the weekend to take on DARPA’s secure voting machine prototype at Defcon’s Voting Village. Hackers were asked to look for and exploit any vulnerabilities relating to hardware-based attacks. The prototype is part of a US$10 million DARPA-funded project to develop an open-source voting platform using secure hardware.

Zindi—a company that hosts online competitions with a focus on science and technology—is using Microsoft’s cloud-based computing service, Azure, to power the platform. As part of a partnership between the firms, Microsoft will host two competitions focused on African agtech, and Zindi is set to bring together 4,000 data scientists based in Africa to develop and create data-driven solutions to local problems.

ASPI suggests

The world

India’s surprise decision to revoke Article 370 from its constitution this week ended the special status enjoyed by the now erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. For a detailed explainer contextualising the recent developments against Kashmir’s history, see the Observer Research Foundation. The Print published two great articles, one arguing that India’s decision was motivated by concerns surrounding US President Donald Trump’s perceived ‘meddling’ in the dispute; the second showing how the dream of conquering Kashmir is entrenched in the Pakistani psyche. Ramesh Thakur argues in The Strategist that New Delhi has bitten off more than it can chew. Foreign Policy is of the view that India is using economic ‘excuses’ to cover for its nationalist project to convert the country into a ‘Hindu nation’. For a quick and objective fact-check, read Christine Fair’s Twitter thread.

For those following the talks between the US and Afghanistan on the so-called peace process, this article in Time lays out exactly what’s happening and the likely future trajectory. This Foreign Policy article shows how the Central Intelligence Agency intends to maintain a presence in Afghanistan after US troops withdraw. Listen to this War on the Rocks podcast for, among other things, a deep assessment of the US war in Afghanistan [46:19].

Across to northern Russia, where a spike in radiation levels has got some worried. The Drive analyses what caused the spike; Russian news is blaming the event on the explosion of liquid propellant that may have been used in a rocket. So, is Russia testing new nuclear weapons? The National Interest seems to think that could be the case, stating that there’s ‘little uncertainty about increasing Russian nuclear capabilities’. And as protests grip Moscow, the Financial Times looks into the impact President Vladimir Putin’s regime is having on the Russian economy.

Following the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, there’s renewed debate (intensified by this viral tweet) on whether a gun buyback scheme would work in the US. The US has more firearms per capita than anywhere else in the world at 120 guns per 100 citizens. The Conversation offers an insightful piece on whether a buyback would work, analysing past attempts to introduce buyback programs in some American cities. See Vox for more on America’s gun problem. Former vice president and contender for the Democratic nomination for the 2020 election, Joe Biden, meanwhile, has called for a federal gun buyback scheme and for assault weapons to be made illegal (about time).

If there’s one thing you read on the Hong Kong protests this week, make sure it’s Michael Shoebridge’s Strategist piece, in which he posits that the crisis is much larger than it appears, and that it opens wider questions on the Chinese Communist Party’s future as an authoritarian government ruling over a ‘multi-ethnic empire’. We also recommend this piece in The Economist, which makes a strong case against any armed intervention in Hong Kong by Beijing.

Across the world, humans are having an increasingly adverse impact on the environment. Al Jazeera investigates the growing illegal transnational timber industry in Cambodia that is destroying wildlife sanctuaries to fuel growing luxury timber demand from China and Vietnam. Brahma Chellaney dives into the environmental impact Chinese-built dams are having on the Mekong basin. In some good news, The Conversation has compiled research that suggests water reserves in Africa are 20 times larger than originally believed and will be much more resilient to climate change than first thought. Closer to home, see The Interpreter for how climate change will increasingly destabilise our region, making Australia’s commitments that much more difficult to maintain. See this ABC interview for a discussion of how nuclear power may be a way for Australia to address climate issues.

Tech geek

The Sierra Nevada Corporation (a contractor for the US military) has developed what it claims is the most powerful aerial surveillance platform ever created. Dubbed ‘Gorgon Stare’, it consists of a series of surveillance balloons that can travel at altitudes of up to 65,000 feet. Gorgon Stare is in its initial testing phase and is being rolled out in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois.

Seemingly out of a science-fiction novel, a group of Romanian engineers have created a fully functioning ‘flying saucer’. The ‘All-Directional Flying Object’ is a proof of concept that has been developed through decades of research. You can watch it in in flight here. Operating much like a quadcopter, four ducted fans and a pair of rear jet engines provide thrust and allow easy manoeuvrability. A pair of lateral thrust nozzles is located on either side of the body to allow for rapid rotation mid-flight. The designers believe the disk will eventually be capable of ‘sudden lateral transitions and sudden yaw’ and ‘smooth transitions during subsonic to supersonic flight’.

Astronomers from the University of Tokyo have discovered 39 formerly ‘invisible’ galaxies. According to the study published in Nature, the discovery challenges our current understanding of early galaxy formation. The finding was made with the help of the Atacama Large Millimetre/submillimeter Array (ALMA), a collection of 66 radio antennas in the Chilean desert.

This week in history

This week in 1945 was the only time nuclear weapons have been used in war. On 6 and 9 August, ‘Little Boy’ and ‘Fat Man’ were dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. Japan surrendered on 14 August, ending World War II. See Al Jazeera for an explainer on the events as well as a short documentary that examines whether the use of atomic weapons was necessary to win the war.

Multimedia

Reuters has compiled a photo series on North Korea’s missiles, showing launches, stockpiles and, of course, Chairman Kim Jong-un.

For the latest on Brexit, including what’s going on behind the scenes in Brussels, see BBC Newsnight. [10:25]

Podcasts

The National Security Law Podcast discusses right-wing terrorism in America and the need for domestic terrorism to form its own legal category [1:05.58].

Matters of State illustrates the advantages and limitations of the methodology used to forecast and prevent genocide [33:02].

Events

It’s your last chance to purchase tickets for ASPI’s State of the Region Masterclass. It’s being held on 14 August and is an opportunity not to be missed. Tickets sold here.

Canberra, 14 August, 6–7.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘The changing landscape of terror: from 9/11 to right-wing extremism’. Register here.

National security wrap

The beat

German police use AI to combat child pornography

Authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia—Germany’s most populous state—are working with Microsoft to identify and combat online child pornography using artificial intelligence. The partnership aims to combine human judgement and intelligence with AI technologies to ‘lighten the workload and psychological burden’ on those tasked with identifying and responding to suspected child pornography. This will be the first AI algorithm used in Germany to combat crime.

Top Malaysian police officer compares his country’s drug use with Colombia’s

The inspector-general of Malaysia’s police, Abdul Hamid Bador, has raised concerns over the level of illegal drug use and trade in Malaysia, comparing the country’s situation with that of Colombia, the world’s largest producer of cocaine. As the situation escalates, police say lack of resources has stopped them from countering drug crime. Police officers have also started using widely available illicit drugs—30 officers have been arrested for illicit drug use in the past six months.

Traffickers found in hot-drug crime machine

Police were called to assist two suspected drug traffickers who found themselves trapped inside a cocaine-filled shipping container in the port of Antwerp. It took the authorities two hours to locate the container and release the suspects. Given that the incident occurred during the recent heatwave in Europe, it’s likely that the dehydrated suspects were relieved to see the police.

Checkpoint

Germany considers reintroducing border checks

Last week, Germany’s interior minister, Horst Seehofer, said he intends to reintroduce border checks with Switzerland in order to reduce the number of illegal immigrants entering the country. His remarks came after a Swiss-based Eritrean man allegedly pushed a mother and boy in front of a train at Frankfurt’s main train station. Seehofer’s plan has been met with criticism from opposition parties, which are accusing him of using populist sentiments to garner support ahead of upcoming regional elections.

Spanish rescue boat seeks safe harbour

A Spanish charity rescue vessel is seeking a safe port in the Mediterranean after being refused access by countries including Italy, Malta and Spain. The Open Arms is carrying 121 migrants who were rescued last week off Libya. The mayor of the Spanish city of Valencia, Joan Ribó, says he will ask his government’s permission to allow the boat to dock in his city.

US reopens immigration checkpoints in El Paso

US Customs and Border Protection has reopened all six of its immigration checkpoints near El Paso, Texas. Several of them were closed five months ago after Border Patrol said that it needed to redeploy agents from the checkpoints to handle a rise in numbers of undocumented immigrants. The reopening comes as El Paso deals with the aftermath of a mass shooting that highlighted increasing racial and immigration-related tensions.

CT scan

Al-Qaeda shaken by death of Osama bin Laden’s son

Citing US intelligence officials, American media outlets have reported that the heir apparent to al-Qaeda, Hamza bin Laden, had been killed in a targeted US airstrike. He emerged onto the jihadist scene in 2015, using audio recordings to call for attacks on the West to avenge his father. Al-Qaeda supporters have urged caution, saying jihadists must await official comments from their leaders. Experts believe Hamza bin Laden’s death will damage al-Qaeda’s image and its aspirations to compete with Islamic State.

Mexico blames Trump for El Paso shooting

The Mexican media and government have blamed US President Donald Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric for the mass shooting in El Paso. A La Jornada editorial criticised US firearms regulations and condemned Trump’s ‘openly racist and anti-immigrant’ discourse. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard classified the attack as ‘an act of terrorism against the Mexican-American community and Mexican nationals in the United States’. At least seven Mexicans were among the 22 victims.

Rocket Chat a tool for terrorism?

As Facebook and Twitter crack down on extremist content, IS and other jihadist organisations are using new online platforms to disseminate propaganda. In 2018, IS media distributors began using Rocket Chat, an open-source decentralised messaging service, as their primary outlet. A BBC Monitoring report shows that IS has operated on Rocket Chat ‘more or less unhindered for over seven months’. IS servers on Rocket Chat now have more than 1,350 users and nearly 50 chat rooms.

First responder

Ageing infrastructure threatens lives and property

Experts in England are criticising the UK government’s failure to maintain its ageing infrastructure. Heavy rain exposed the frailties of a 19th-century dam wall at the Toddbrook Reservoir in Derbyshire, prompting authorities to evacuate the town of Whaley Bridge on Thursday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited the evacuees last Friday. While he congratulated the emergency crews on their work, he said the dam wall is in a ‘dodgy but stable’ condition.

Nano-vaccine for melanoma

Researchers at Tel Aviv University have developed a nano-vaccine that they say may help treat and prevent melanoma, the most aggressive form of skin cancer. Their innovative approach, using nanoparticles, has so far seen success in preventing the development and spread of melanoma in mice. The research could open the doors to a completely new approach to the development of vaccines.

The five-domains update

Sea state

Last Wednesday, a Chinese naval warship collided with a Taiwanese freighter in the Taiwan Strait at around 8 pm local time. Both vessels suffered hull damage. The cargo ship made it safely to Liaoluo Port in Kinmen but the Chinese vessel kept going. The Taiwan coastguard caught up with the ship at around midnight but was unable to identify its hull number in the darkness. Authorities are now investigating the incident to determine whether it was an accident or a deliberate act.

Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, has said that his country won’t participate in a US-led naval patrol mission in the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement came amid rising tensions between Iran and the West as Iran continues to seize foreign oil tankers in the area. However, Germany has not ruled out joining a European-led initiative to protect shipping in the Gulf.

The US Justice Department has filed corruption charges against the head of a Korean port services company. The department alleges that the CEO provided a former US navy captain with various gifts and paid expenses in exchange for sensitive and confidential naval information. This comes as another blow to the US Navy, with observers pointing to similarities with the ‘Fat Leonard’ scandal that has troubled the navy since 2013.

Flight path

Scientists at the Sandia National Laboratories have been studying the dragonfly to see if its hunting abilities can be mimicked in missile defence systems. Led by neuroscientist Frances Chance, the research examines the insect’s neural network and aims to build computer algorithms that simulate its information-processing skills to help improve missile capabilities. While it’s unknown whether the research will lead to more efficient missile systems, such a model could also have benefits in other fields, such as artificial intelligence and self-driving cars.

Israeli company BIRD Aerosystems has received an additional order from the UN for airborne missile protection systems to protect helicopters engaged in peacekeeping operations in Africa. BIRD claims that its system offers ‘the most enhanced protection’ against surface-to-air missiles. The newly ordered systems will be installed on Russian-made UN Mi-17 helicopters, which are currently operating in West Africa and the Sudan.

The German government has disclosed that only 512 of the Luftwaffe’s 875 pilots met the mandatory 180 training flight hours last year. Chronic underfunding has contributed to equipment shortages and extensive maintenance issues, with only 39 of Germany’s 128 Eurofighters in a state of operational readiness in 2018. Defence spending currently accounts for just 1.35% of Germany’s GDP and falls short of NATO targets. The US has continued to pressure Germany to lift defence spending to meet the NATO target of 2% of GDP.

Rapid fire

The soaring murder rate in Cape Town is generating an undercurrent of fear in the port city. The over-crowded poverty-stricken townships on the Cape flats are being terrorised by gang violence and local police have been unable to quell the disturbances. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has deployed a battalion of several hundred soldiers to help ‘restore law and maintain order’ in the troubled areas. The three-month operation has been welcomed by local residents. However, critics argue that it is a band-aid solution for deeply rooted social problems stemming from the systemic oppression of the apartheid era.

Within months, the US could have ground-based conventional intermediate-range missiles deployed in Asia. US Defense Secretary Mark Esper made this announcement en route to Australia for the AUSMIN meeting, which was held on Sunday. The US plan comes on the heals of the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said last week that the treaty’s breakdown ‘will likely heighten, not reduce, the threat posed by ballistic missiles’.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has affirmed his support to end the ‘unfair trials’ of British soldiers being prosecuted for their role in the Troubles in the early 1970s in Northern Ireland. The appointment of Johnny Mercer, who has labelled the prosecution of veterans as an ‘abhorrent process’, as veterans affairs minister reflects a wider desire in the Conservative Party to halt historic prosecutions of veterans. Sinn Fein fears that an amnesty would slow reconciliation and prevent ‘public consultation on dealing with the legacy of the past’.

Final frontier

Following French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement last month that he had approved the creation of a space command in the French air force for defence and surveillance, the scope of the unit’s role has been clarified. French Defence Minister Florence Parly confirmed in a speech last week that France plans to defend its constellation of military satellites using a new generation of Syracuse satellites armed with defensive weapons.

The European Space Agency has selected Airbus to build the European component of the ‘Solar-wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer’ (SMILE) satellite. The satellite is part of a joint mission between the ESA and the Chinese Academy of Sciences to monitor and understand space weather.

Astronauts on the International Space Station are set to bake chocolate-chip cookies in space for the first time thanks to a partnership between Double-Tree Hilton, Zero G Kitchen and NanoRacks. While the astronauts won’t be able to consume their creations—the first batch will be sent back to earth for analysis—this experiment will bring them one step closer to understanding the art of baking in microgravity.

Wired watchtower

In response to growing concern about the changing nature of warfare, the UK is establishing a specialist army hybrid warfare division that will study unconventional warfare, below and above the threshold of conflict. The 6th Division, as it will be known, will focus on intelligence-gathering and information operations, as well as cyber and electronic warfare.

Industrial cybersecurity firm Dragos has identified a new hacker group targeting the telecommunication and energy sectors across the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. The group, which Dragos has named ‘Hexane’, has become more active in recent months and is likely targeting telecommunication companies as a means of gaining third-party access to oil and gas companies.

Young hackers accused of committing cybercrimes will be offered a second chance thanks to a joint initiative between the British and Dutch authorities called ‘Hack_Right’. Instead of opting for legal proceedings against first-time offenders, police in the UK and the Netherlands will set out to educate young hackers about the consequences of their actions and engage them in ethical computer training.

ASPI suggests

The world

China this week released its new defence white paper titled China’s national defense in the new era—see here for the English version. Australia is mentioned a grand total of once in the 51-page document and only in the context of our military alliance with the US. The white paper unsurprisingly reaffirms China’s sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea. It also provides an official update on Chinese defence spending, which, at 1.28% of GDP, is the lowest percentage of all permanent members of the UN Security Council. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has released a working draft highlighting more of the paper’s main points.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Washington made headlines this week, and not for all the right reasons. This New York Times article explains the significance of the first official bilateral meeting between Khan and President Donald Trump. The Diplomat argues that it was a major diplomatic success for Pakistan. Foreign Policy warns that Pakistan is back at playing its game of duplicity with Washington and that the US shouldn’t buy into its lies and deceit. Max Boot’s must-read piece in the Washington Post argues that Trump’s bluster about wiping Afghanistan ‘off the face of the Earth’ is just cover for his surrender to the Taliban.

Trump committed another major diplomatic faux pas during his meeting with Khan, saying Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had asked him to mediate to resolve the Kashmir issue. As expected, his comments caused a major uproar, not only in India (which issued a firm denial) but also in the US. The Washington Post highlighted the seriousness of the damage Trump’s remarks caused to US–India relations. Elias Groll and Robbie Gramer despair in Foreign Policy that Trump was risking throwing a major security partner under the bus to get Pakistan’s help in negotiating with the Taliban.

A groundbreaking ASPI report casts doubt on assertions that conditions in Myanmar’s Rakhine State will enable Rohingya refugees to return safely to their former homeland. One of the report’s authors, Elise Thomas, talked to the ABC about the main findings of the report [7:34]. Al Jazeera claims ASEAN’s credibility will be at stake if it doesn’t intervene in the Rohingya crisis and aid in the repatriation process. This article in The Conversation describes the devastating conditions faced by Rohingya children and the role gender plays in refugee camps. And if you don’t know where Myanmar is, you’re not alone. Neither does the leader of the free world.

Across to Britain where Boris Johnson has just been sworn in as prime minister. See CNN for the highlights of his first speech as PM, which naturally focused on Brexit. Foreign Policy has an eye-opening article on the similarities between Trump and Johnson. See the BBC for a look at Johnson’s new cabinet and the facts and figures associated with it. If you want BoJo by the numbers, see The Conversation for a dive into his past, policies and plans.

And for some extra reading, see The Guardian to learn about the process of recovering the remains of soldiers who fell during the Korean War and lie, often unburied, within the Demilitarised Zone. Al Jazeera dissects special counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony on Trump and the Russia investigation. And following the 50th anniversary of the first boots on the moon, leap into this piece by James Gleick on the history of the Apollo space missions.

Tech geek

Fujifilm has made its first foray into the surveillance market with the SX800, a long-range surveillance camera. It boasts an impressive 40x optical zoom paired with 0.3-second auto-focus, optical image stabilisation, and an image-processing engine that’s able to reduce the effects of fog and heat haze. With the add-ons, this camera can focus clearly on a handheld sign from 2.2 kilometres away. The company says its new offering is a cost-effective solution to monitoring international borders, airports and city blocks.

US Cyber Command has launched its latest simulated cyberattack against a virtual seaport in its annual Cyber Flag event. The tactical exercise, aimed at testing digital readiness, brought together more than 650 cyber professionals from across the US government, industry and Five Eyes countries.

Finally, technological innovation and warfare have always gone hand in hand, but according to a recent announcement from France’s Defence Innovation Agency, the French military may be taking things one step further. In a novel approach, the French army has announced plans to assemble a team of science-fiction writers to imagine possible future cyber threats and inject innovative thinking into France’s cyber defence. The group of writers will be known as the ‘Red Team’ and will be tasked with imagining future ‘disruptive scenarios’ that may have gone unnoticed by traditional strategists.

This week in history

The final treaty concluding World War I, the Treaty of Lausanne, was signed this week in 1923. Turkey agreed to relinquish claims on all its former Arab provinces and the treaty defined the borders of the modern Turkish state. The Allies dropped their support for an autonomous Kurdistan and took control of the former territories of the Ottoman Empire covering present-day Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Israel.

Multimedia

Following the release of China’s new defence white paper, Inside Story this week asks the big question—can China become a military superpower? [24:35]

See the BBC for a day in pictures as Theresa May resigns as Britain’s prime minister and Boris Johnson takes her place.

Podcasts

The Australian Institute of International Affairs has released the first on-the-record interview with Paul Symon, the director-general of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, focusing on what ASIS does, how it manages technology and how it decides what information to collect. [49:30]

The Diplomat explores China’s new naval facilities in Cambodia—its second overseas military base—and examines the significance of this development for the region. [24:34]

Events

Melbourne, 30 July, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Australia: role model in a turbulent world?’ Tickets here ($30).

Canberra, 31 July, 12.30–1.30 pm, Australian National University: ‘Perceptions on governance and corruption in PNG’s public service’. Register here.

Can Darwin be a ‘resilient city’?

In the past decade, the concept of urban resilience has become integral to the development and design strategies of city planners and decision-makers around the world. As cities have grown larger, there’s been a concerted effort to ensure they can endure a multitude of threats to social cohesion and public health.

One particularly well-known approach to this problem is the 100 Resilient Cities program, an initiative started by the Rockefeller Foundation in 2013. Dedicated to developing resilience frameworks for cities with sprawling populations, the program views urban resilience as ‘the capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience’.  While the program has been implemented in ‘megacities’ (large cities with millions of people), its key rationale applies to all cities regardless of size or density.

Of the 100 cities in the program, 16 can be considered ‘small’, with a population under 500,000. Within this category, only three are comparable in population size to Darwin (148,393 people in 2017): Berkeley (122,324), Vejle (113,720) and Boulder (107,125). It’s a small pool of cities that Darwin could use to benchmark itself against on resilience challenges and to inform options for city planning and decision-making. Of course, while their population sizes may be similar, the three cities’ geopolitical, strategic, environmental and economic challenges don’t fully fit the uncertainties that Darwin is currently facing.

From economic pressures to water sustainability and border security, Darwin has a unique set of challenges. Population growth is slowing down, the economy is struggling, and the city is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events related to climate change. Those challenges are compounded by Darwin’s growing strategic importance as Australia thinks about its national security needs and its future defence posture.

In that regard, supporting the Northern Territory government’s efforts to make Darwin a better, more liveable and adaptable city—one that’s able to cope with the uncertainties of climate change, demographic changes, a fluctuating economy and changing security demands—is not only beneficial but necessary.

As members of the 100 Resilient Cities project, Melbourne and Sydney rely on extensive and detailed resilience frameworks. While their implementation differs, these cities apply variations of the city resilence framework developed by Arup as a basis for their ongoing policy and planning development.

The framework uses four broad dimensions: infrastructure and the environment, economy and society, leadership and strategy, and health and wellbeing. These four categories underpin a multitude of indicators (Arup’s city resilience index has 52 indicators) that decision-makers can use to detail opportunities to enhance the liveability and adaptability of large cities to a range of stressors.

But would such a framework be useful for Darwin? Melbourne, for example, is coping with explosive population growth and an expensive housing market. It will also have to adapt to periods of extreme heat, a higher frequency of intense rainfall events in parallel with water scarcity, and varying degrees of ecological instability.

While these conditions already exist in the north of Australia, Melbourne has a range of resources and capacities available that can’t be matched in Darwin.

Full implementation of the large-scale approaches in the city resilience framework that could work for Melbourne may be less suited to smaller cities like Darwin. Arguably, those approaches are designed for cities with dense populations and complex infrastructure systems across wide urban and industrial landscapes.

But it’s worth considering whether subsets of the framework might allow Darwin to more effectively capture current vulnerabilities and plan for future developmental needs. Such considerations may offer new options for addressing Darwin’s economic, demographic and environmental challenges.

There are several benefits to this proposal. One is that it would give Darwin’s city planners opportunities to benchmark existing planning regimes against a subset of a framework that has become an informal gold standard for resilience planning in cities and urban spaces globally. Luckily for Darwin, its relatively small size provides an opportunity to focus on a more limited, but nonetheless important, set of challenges.

A second benefit for Darwin goes beyond the Australian context. Developing an urban resilience framework for small cities and towns would enable Darwin to be a leader in the design and planning of cities facing similar issues around the world. It’s been notoriously difficult to attract foreign investment and attention to Darwin. Developing adaptable resilience frameworks is a particularly attractive proposition Darwin’s city planners should consider.

There’s also a strong argument for creating a resilience framework for Darwin as a public benefit, which is based on developments embodied in the World Commission on Environment and Development, established in 1983 by Gro Harlem Brundtland (former prime minister of Norway and director-general of the World Health Organization), and the commission’s 1987 report titled ‘Our common future’ and known as the Brundtland report.

Encompassing many of the early ideas of sustainable development, the Brundtland report emphasises the benefits of a healthy and inclusive economy, thriving community life and hospitable urban environments. It also influenced the development of the World Health Organization’s Healthy Cities movement: a global initiative with strong policy and practice links to current notions of resilient cities.

Darwin’s development of its own resilience plan would respond to and help strengthen the city’s importance as a viable, vibrant and secure capital.

Myanmar’s Rakhine State is far from ready for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees

Image: Maxar via Google.

In June 2019, a report by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on Rakhine State, Myanmar, was leaked to the media. In it, ASEAN outlines a process for the return of 500,000 Rohingya refugees to Myanmar over a period of six years. As of April 2019, more than 910,000 Rohingya were living in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh.

The leaked report, which one major media outlet said gave ‘a glowing assessment of Myanmar’s efforts to entice Rohingya refugees back from Bangladesh’, attracted widespread criticism from civil society and human rights groups.

In fairness to ASEAN’s Emergency Response and Assessment Team, which put together the report, it was only a preliminary assessment; the team had a limited mandate and was deployed in Rakhine State for just 10 days. But this backlash highlights one of the biggest problems with what is occurring in Rakhine State—multilateral agencies, policymakers, civil society groups and the public have very little information on which to base their assessments and decision-making.

The situation has been exacerbated by the internet shutdown that the Myanmar government ordered telecommunications companies to impose on 22 June in parts of Rakhine State and neighbouring Chin State. UN Special Rapporteur Yanghee Lee said in early July that the ‘information blackout is imperilling villagers, further obstructing the humanitarian response and shielding the military operations from scrutiny’. The internet remains shut down.

New research by ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre seeks to fill in some of these information gaps by adding to the evidence base available to policymakers and relevant stakeholders about conditions in northern Rakhine State, and in Rakhine State more broadly. It also aims to contribute to informed discussions about the best path towards a safe, dignified and sustainable future for the Rohingya refugees.

Our research combined open-source data with the collection and analysis of new satellite imagery to assess the level of preparation in Rakhine State to receive returning refugees. We mapped the current status of 392 Rohingya settlements which were identified by UNOSAT data as damaged or destroyed during the 2017 crisis. We also mapped potential repatriation camps and military bases constructed on the sites of former Rohingya settlements.

The findings of this research are set out in an interactive report.

We found that more than 320 settlements show no sign of reconstruction and at least 40% of affected settlements have been razed. In addition to settlements affected in the 2017 crisis, we identified at least 58 other settlements in which there was fresh or ongoing demolition in 2018. Satellite imagery also shows that demolition has occurred in some settlements in 2019.

We also found that at least 45 camps have been constructed or enlarged (some of these camps are believed to be for internally displaced people, returning refugees or both) and identified six suspected military facilities built or expanded on the sites of former Rohingya settlements.

According to the ASEAN report, the Myanmar government’s plan is that returning refugees will first be taken to ‘reception centres’ where they will undergo a registration process involving the gathering of biometric details. They will then be sent to what is called a ‘transit centre’ at Hla Pho Khaung (see the satellite image above, which shows the facility’s construction between 1 December 2017 and 12 December 2018).

The Hla Pho Khaung transit centre can accommodate 25,000 people in ‘temporary shelters’. There’s additional capacity to accommodate returning refugees in ‘container-type’ shelters.

Returning refugees may stay in the transit centre for a maximum of 30 days, after which they’ll have three options:

  1. If their original houses are still habitable, they can return to them immediately.
  2. They can move to relocation sites provided by the government.
  3. They can participate in cash-for-work programs to rebuild their houses in identified areas.

The extent of burning during the 2017 crisis and the continued destruction of Rohingya settlements during 2018 and 2019 suggest that few Rohingya are likely to be able to return to their original houses. Our findings also raise serious questions about the willingness of the Myanmar government to facilitate the repatriation process.

Further, two laws, the Vacant, Fallow and Virgin Lands Management Law and the Natural Disaster Management Law, effectively expand government ownership and management of the land on which Rohingya settlements were located, raising further doubt that refugees will be able to return to their original homes or land.

It seems most returning refugees will be settled in ‘relocation sites’, either in government-built shelters or in houses built through the cash-for-work programs. Refugees may own their houses, but the land is now owned by the Myanmar government.

New construction at proposed relocation sites, such as Kyain Chaung, strongly resembles a camp rather than the villages that were there before the crackdown (see the image below, which shows the changes at the Kyain Chaung site between December 2017 and May 2019).

Image: Maxar via Google/PlanetLabs.

Satellite evidence also confirms the highly securitised nature of northern Rakhine State. The Border Guard Police—a paramilitary group associated with the military—maintains a network of security posts throughout northern Rakhine State.

Fortified security posts have been built in some of the remaining Rohingya villages. And some new buildings constructed for the Taung Pyo Letwe reception centre are in a prison-like configuration, including housing areas fully surrounded by fencing and six watchtowers overlooking the 10,000-square-metre facility. This securitisation raises concerns that freedom of movement and access to services may be restricted.

Our research does not support assertions that conditions are in place to support a dignified, safe and sustainable return of Rohingya people. Satellite analysis shows minimal preparation for a return of half a million refugees. The preparations that are being made raise significant concerns about the conditions under which returning Rohingya refugees would be expected to live.