Tag Archive for: General

ASPI suggests

The world

One of this week’s biggest headlines was the withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong, the potential passage of which spurred the protests that have rocked the city for months. While this decision satisfies one of the protesters’ five demands, it’s clear that they will continue their efforts, particularly on seeking to have police brutality during the protests investigated. It remains to be seen whether Beijing will acquiesce to the remaining demands.

After the US and the Taliban reached a preliminary Afghan peace deal, Time analyses why US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refuses to sign the ‘risky’ pact. However, noting the extended and extensive engagement in the country, this article in National Interest claims the US has done all it can for the unstable nation. The Atlantic Council, meanwhile, has compiled insights from former US officials who worked in Afghanistan, providing tips on how to maintain counterterrorism efforts and avoid future destabilisation in Afghanistan following a withdrawal of US troops. While many believe the Taliban to be fractured, War on the Rocks provides a different opinion, claiming the organisation is at its most cohesive since the collapse of its regime in 2001.

The competition between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China for diplomatic recognition has surfaced again this week as a member of parliament in Solomon Islands said the country should sever its ties with Taipei and recognise Beijing instead. In recent years, Taiwan has lost recognition from several countries and now only 17 countries officially recognise it. The ABC has published an excellent article breaking down the issue and unpacking how a change by Solomon Islands might affect decisions made by other Pacific island countries. And earlier in the year The Atlantic published a piece contextualising and analysing the complexities of the US relationship with Taiwan.

Now time for your weekly dose of Brexit. If you’re sick of it, look away now and we’ll see EU later. In short, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been defeated for the third time in two days in the House of Commons as his call for a general election failed to get the two-thirds majority needed. Despite previous calls for a general election by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, he voted against Johnson’s latest election bid. While it may look like absolute chaos to the outside world, the UK’s current political turmoil simply proves that the country’s political system is working. If that statement confuses you, head over to The Atlantic for a justification. Maybe all Britain needs is a word of advice from a country like Australia, a stable democracy with strong, unchanging leadership (if you need to check up on who the current PM is, see this Twitter feed). The ABC’s Samantha Hawley says ‘a restart button needs pushing’ if the UK is to extricate itself from the political quagmire it’s found itself in.

Elsewhere in Europe, there’s been a development in the ongoing investigation into the downing of a Malaysia Airlines jet over Ukraine in 2014. A key witness and potential suspect, Vladimir Tsemakh, has been released by a Ukrainian court ahead of a terrorism trial over his role in the deaths of the 298 people who were on board MH17. Prisoner-swap negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are underway and investigators fear that if Tsemakh is released and sent to Russia, they will be unable to truly ascertain his role in the tragedy, which recently marked its fifth anniversary.

Tech geek

In a War on the Rocks piece, nuclear deterrence experts Adam Lowther and Curtis McGiffin have caused quite a stir by arguing that the US should consider using artificial intelligence to improve nuclear deterrence. The idea has been criticised by most nuclear-weapon experts because of the inherent risks that come with the use of AI. To learn more about the evolution of nuclear deterrence with AI, see this RAND Corporation report from last which explored how AI may affect the chances of nuclear war. For a short explainer on nuclear deterrence, see this article in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs.

In space news, Forbes says SpaceX refused to move its Starlink satellite to avoid a collision with the European Space Agency’s Aeolus satellite. SpaceX has denied the claims, saying the company didn’t receive an alert from its collision avoidance system. While a collision didn’t actually occur, the way the incident was handled by SpaceX and the ESA raises questions about collision-avoidance protocols. Last year, Saadia Pekkanen explained why space debris may be a national security threat.

On 3 September, the Chinese air force signalled its growing air power with a video showing seven Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter aircraft flying in formation, indicating the jet may have entered full production. While the aircraft does look very similar to the US F-22 and F-35, there are still doubts about how potent China’s stealth fighter is, particularly in terms of engine design and software technology.

This week in history

This week 104 years ago, the first tank rolled off a production line in England. A world away from modern battle tanks, the prototype (named Little Willie after the German crown prince), crawled along at the lightning speed of about 5 kilometres per hour and was extremely adept at getting stuck in trenches and mud.

Multimedia

As Britain considers the use of unmanned aerial vehicles to monitor the Persian Gulf, Al Jazeera looks into how drones will shape the future of warfare. [25:25]

The Atlantic follows 11-year-old Sam as he tries to raise awareness of the potential environmental impacts of nuclear power just as Hinkley Point Power Plant is constructed next to his home in England. [22:43]

See the devastation caused by Hurricane Dorian, which left at least 30 dead in the Bahamas, in these photo galleries (here and here).

Podcasts

In a speech to the Lowy Institute, outgoing ASIO director-general Duncan Lewis said foreign interference and espionage are the biggest security threats facing Australia. [1:00.02]

Ian Bremmer sits down with Washington Post Beijing bureau chief Anna Fifield, who, thanks to 12 visits to North Korea since 2005, provides valuable insights into Kim Jong-un and his regime. [21:33]

Events

Canberra, 10 September, 10.30–11.50 am, Australian National University: ‘Growth prospects for Asia and the Pacific: opportunities, risks and the Asian Development Bank’s role’. More info here.

Melbourne, 10 September, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Taiwan—Beijing’s next target after Hong Kong?’ Tickets here ($30).

National security wrap

The beat

Top cop says UK risks becoming ‘Orwellian’ police state

The commissioner of London’s Metropolitan Police, Cressida Dick, has warned that the UK could become a ‘ghastly, Orwellian, omniscient police state’ if law enforcement fails to confront the ethical and legal challenges presented by modern technologies. She said that while we’re now only ‘tiptoeing into a world of robotics, AI and machine learning’, in the future these technologies could be used for so-called predictive policing. This type of policing raises a number of issues, particularly in relation to the racial and gender biases exhibited by AI, which legal systems around the world are yet to grapple with.

Police sink underwater drug smugglers

Peruvian police have arrested 12 people involved in an underwater drug-smuggling ring operating in South America. The ring, headed by Colombians collaborating with Peruvians, used divers to attach sealed packages of cocaine to the hulls of commercial vessels. The technique allowed around 600 kilograms of cocaine to be smuggled from one port to another.

Rioters arrested in South Africa

Police have arrested almost 200 people following an outbreak of violence in South Africa, with riots erupting in Johannesburg, Pretoria and surrounding areas. While rioters targeted foreign-owned businesses, Police Minister Bheki Cele said the violence was the result of ‘criminality rather than xenophobia’.

Checkpoint

Tensions rise at Georgia–South Ossetia border

Georgia has warned that it may face a serious confrontation with the Russian-backed region of South Ossetia, after separatists demanded that Georgian authorities remove a checkpoint on a disputed boundary. Officials in Tbilisi said they’d observed a mobilisation of military equipment and personnel in the separatist region near the administrative boundary line between the two territories. The US, Russia and EU have called on both sides to exercise restraint and abide by established mechanisms to settle the dispute.

Pick-up picked up

US Border Patrol agents seized drugs worth more than US$1 million from a pick-up truck at a checkpoint in New Mexico. The Dodge Ram was found to have been carrying about 17 kilograms of methamphetamine and about a kilo of heroin, all of which was turned over to the Drug Enforcement Administration. Ever since US states began to legalise marijuana, Mexican cartels have been trying to make up for lost profits with other, more profitable drugs, including cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine.

Migrants cross into Spanish enclave

Moroccan authorities say that around 400 migrants attempted to cross the border between Morocco and Ceuta, an autonomous city under Spanish control. About 150 of them climbed fences or walked past a border post to enter the Spanish enclave. Moroccan authorities have since arrested 90 migrants, while 55 of those who succeeded in crossing the border have already been sent back to Morocco.

CT scan

Pompeo refuses to sign US–Taliban preliminary peace deal

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has reportedly refused to sign a preliminary Afghan peace deal. The American special envoy who led talks with the Taliban earlier said the US had reached an agreement ‘in principle’ to withdraw 5,400 of 14,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan. In exchange, the Taliban would agree to keep Afghanistan free from militant groups looking to attack the US and its allies. It’s only the first step and many are pessimistic about the prospects of peace in the country.

Australian IS fighter found alive

Australian man Hamza Elbaf, who was believed dead following the collapse of the Islamic State terror group’s caliphate, has been found alive in a Kurdish prison in Syria. Elbaf and his three brothers left Sydney in 2014 for Syria, but he claims he worked as an IS cook because he wasn’t qualified to fight. He has expressed a desire to return to Australia, but only if he isn’t given a lengthy prison sentence.

Colombia’s peace process failing?

Colombia’s peace process is under strain as members of rebel group FARC’s radical faction released a video showing them taking up arms and criticising the government’s failure to keep its commitments. FARC’s former second-in-command, Ivan Marquez, has promised to form a new, clandestine guerrilla movement. FARC, which is today also a political party, has strongly condemned the video.

First responder

Dorian leaves trail of destruction in Bahamas

Hurricane Dorian has devastated areas of the Bahamas, says Prime Minister Hubert Minnis. The category 5 storm was the largest on record to hit the islands, with winds of up to 295 kilometres per hour and torrential rain causing severe flooding and destruction. The Red Cross estimates that 45% of the homes on the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco have been rendered uninhabitable.

No-deal Brexit will be ‘major natural disaster’

The EU will reportedly declare a ‘major natural disaster’ in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The declaration would allow for almost €600 million (A$970 million) to be released from a solidarity fund which was created in 2002 to help member states deal with natural disasters. The European Commission claims that Brexit is a ‘singular event’ that could have a significant impact on trade patterns, growth and jobs and therefore warrants the activation of the fund to help countries deal with the damage.

Emergency relief for Japanese flood victims

The Association of Medical Doctors of Asia has dispatched relief personnel to Saga Prefecture on the Japanese island of Kyushu, after the region was hit by severe downpours which caused several landslides and floods. The team has been working in a hospital in the city of Saga and is looking after people at a welfare facility which houses evacuees with special medical needs. The torrential rains came as Japan held annual nationwide disaster drills on 1 September.

The month in women, peace and security: August 2019

Samoa holds WPS summit

On 22 and 23 August, New Zealand’s defence ministry and Samoa’s foreign affairs ministry co-hosted a summit on women, peace and security in Apia. Military and police personnel, government officials, academics and civil society members from Pacific island nations, Australia, Canada, France, the US and UK attended. The summit’s goals were to promote women’s roles in security in the Pacific and globally and to discuss the region’s ‘expanded concept of security’ as outlined in the Pacific Island Forum’s 2018 Boe Declaration.

Samoa’s deputy prime minister, Fiame Naomi Mata’afa, said the role of women and traditional village systems in Pacific island communities should be acknowledged in all aspects of the peace and security agenda. She noted that villages are the first line of defence against crime and natural disasters, and are crucial in maintaining a resilient peace in the Pacific. Fiame reflected on the old Samoan saying O le tama’ita’i ole malu o le aiga (‘Women are protectors of families’) to highlight the longstanding role women have played in the security of the region.

NZ launches Pacific Defence Gender Network

New Zealand Defence Minister Ron Mark launched the Pacific Defence Gender Network at the WPS summit in Apia. The network will operate on a foundation of inclusion and collaboration to ‘promote gender equality in regional defence forces while encouraging men to become champions and advocates’ for women in defence. The network will work in tandem with the Women’s Advisory Network, established in 2003 by Pacific Islands Chiefs of Police, to encourage women into leadership roles.

Celebrating the WPS agenda’s 20th anniversary with action

As the WPS agenda nears its 20th anniversary, Donald Steinberg suggests the way to ‘truly celebrate’ the milestone would be to ‘take a hardline approach’. He argues that progress on implementing UN resolution 1325 has been slow and sporadic, and that a key factor has been the resolution’s language, which ‘encourages, urges, [and] requests actions rather than demanding them’. However, Steinberg says adopting a new resolution would be problematic and could result in a loss of support from UN members due to increasing levels of authoritarianism.

Countries are failing to implement weapons treaty’s gender provisions

Susan Hutchinson has examined the Arms Trade Treaty’s articles on weapons that facilitate serious acts of gender-based violence. Despite the treaty’s legally binding nature, Hutchinson argues that countries still aren’t meeting its provisions. She uses Australia as an example of current processes failing to comply with the treaty. Despite ratifying the treaty, the Australian government doesn’t consider gender-based violence when assessing applications for defence export permits.

Women’s safety in India highlighted

On 15 August, India celebrated its 73rd independence day. Despite the country’s overall progress, Shruti Rajagopalan argues that Indian women today are still struggling to achieve independence themselves. Rajagopalan highlights how the concept of public safety and security differs for men and women. The many issues Indian women face, including harassment, sexual assault and violence, restrict their ability to occupy physical space in the same way men do. Rajagopalan says better enforcement of legal rules is needed to bring about change.

Celebrating women in humanitarian roles

On 19 August, the UN celebrated the 10th World Humanitarian Day. This year’s campaign recognised ‘#WomenHumanitarians’ and the role they play in fostering peace and security, with women often ‘the first to respond and the last to leave’ when a crisis hits their communities. As part of the campaign, the UN shared the stories of 24 women over a 24-hour period, highlighting the diverse nature of their humanitarian work.

Unlocking the potential of refugee women in the workforce

The Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security and the International Rescue Committee have released a report titled Unlocking refugee women’s potential. Focusing on the untapped economic and societal value of refugee women, the authors conclude that gainfully employed refugee women could ‘contribute to global GDP by at least $5 billion and as much as $1.4 trillion’. The beneficiaries of that extra economic activity would be not only the women themselves, but their host countries too.

Using the WPS agenda to uncover crimes against the environment

Benjamin Duerr has examined how the WPS agenda can inform efforts to make ‘crimes against the Earth visible’. He argues that crimes against the environment in times of conflict are viewed in the same way that crimes against women were viewed before the advent of the WPS agenda, ‘as collateral damage and as an inevitable consequence of war’. He notes that a key lesson to take from the success of the WPS agenda is that if the environment is recognised as needing and being entitled to protection, at least it becomes a ‘part of the discourse’ from which change can happen.

Countering negative narratives on women’s military participation

Vanessa Newby has written for The Strategist on the need to normalise the participation of women in militaries—particularly in Western democracies—with few women staying in the military and advancing their careers over the long term. One of the issues Newby notes is the lack of relevant research and evidence about women’s performance in the military and the history of women’s participation in warfighting. She argues that bolstering research in this area could counter negative narratives about women’s suitability for combat, and provide a better understanding of the positive contributions women make in military roles.

Moving on from ‘manels’

The Washington Post has published a five-part series on the gender gap in political science. The fifth and final article considers the absence of female experts on foreign policy panels in Washington. The authors found that, women comprised 34% of experts on foreign policy panels in 2018, and many were moderators rather than speakers.

The five-domains update

Sea state

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a new maritime security agreement with Timor-Leste, which includes a deal for Australia to fund a new wharf at the Hera naval base and provide two Guardian-class patrol boats to the country. The announcement was made during a visit by Morrison to Dili, where he declared a ‘new chapter’ in relations between Australia and Timor-Leste. The commitment bears similarities to the one in Papua New Guinea, where Australia and the US will help redevelop the Lombrum naval base on Manus Island.

China has denied a US Navy warship’s request to visit the Chinese port city of Qingdao, according to a US defence official. It’s the second time China has denied a request by the US Navy in the past month, having previously rejected a request for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong. While China’s defence ministry has yet to comment, experts claim that the refusal was a ‘natural result of the worsening bilateral ties between China and the US’.

British defence company QinetiQ has won a £18.7 million (A$34 million) contract with the Royal Navy. Technology known as ‘Operational Assessment of Signatures Informing Susceptibility’, or OASIS, will help reduce the acoustic and electromagnetic signatures of the Royal Navy’s submarines and ships, making it harder for them to be detected. QinetiQ’s Steve Fitz-Gerald said that the contract will ‘play a significant role in the modernisation … and development of capability for our forces’.

Flight path

Aerospace company Saab completed the maiden flight of its first Brazilian Gripen E fighter last week. President and CEO Hakan Buskhe said the milestone was a ‘testament to the great partnership between Sweden and Brazil’. The aircraft is the first Gripen E fighter produced for Brazil and is part of a US$5.4 billion deal signed back in 2014, which called for the construction and supply of 36 Gripen fighters, comprising 28 single-seat Gripens and eight two-seaters.

A US Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber has become the first B-2 ever to land in Iceland. The aircraft arrived at Naval Air Station Keflavik, where it spent five hours. The USAF said the purpose of the flight was to ‘conduct theater familiarization … and to demonstrate US commitment to allies and partners’. It also highlighted Keflavik’s potential as an emergency diversion or staging location for B-2s.

Russia’s Kronstadt Group showcased a new drone at the MAKS 2019 aerospace and defence exhibition in Zhukovsky. Kronstadt says the medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle has a payload of 1,000 kilograms and will be able to conduct patrols over the Arctic and Pacific oceans as well as monitor Russia’s exclusive economic zones. The UAV has a claimed cruising speed of 295 kilometres per hour and a flight endurance of 40 hours at full load.

Rapid fire

Three contenders have submitted their final bids to replace the Australian Army’s fleet of Tiger armed reconnaissance helicopters from the mid-2020s as part of the LAND 4503 program. The army wants a ‘proven and mature, off the shelf-manned armed helicopter’. The candidates to replace the Tiger are Bell’s Viper and Boeing’s Apache, while Airbus is offering what it says would be a more than $3 billion saving by extending the Tiger’s service life to the 2040s.

The Australian Army’s 51st Battalion is hosting a trilateral military exercise with forces from the US and China in Far North Queensland. The exercise, called Kowari, promotes ‘friendship and co-operation’ by encouraging military personnel from the three countries to work together in the Australian bush. It’s hoped activities such as hiking, canyoning and sea kayaking as well as bush survival training will enable ‘important people-to-people connections’ and enhance regional security.

Poland has expressed an interest in joining the European main battle tank project, which is being spearheaded by France and Germany. The project is part of an initiative founded in 2017 to allow EU member states to engage in joint military projects. Poland’s desire to join the scheme reflects a broader trend among Eastern European countries that are seeking to replace their Soviet-era tanks with modern Western ones.

Final frontier

Following a ‘mysterious explosion’ at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Space Center on Thursday, US President Donald Trump posted a high-resolution image of the location to Twitter, though he denied any US involvement in what’s thought to be a failed rocket launch. Trump has been questioned over his choice of image, as a redacted classification appears to be in the top left-hand corner of the image. The quality and detail of the now very public image have enabled observers to identify the satellite used as one of the US National Reconnaissance Office’s classified KH-11 Evolved Enhanced Crystal satellites.

NASA activated its Deep Space Atomic Clock on Friday, marking the official beginning of its year-long mission. The atomic clock is the first onboard clock that’s ‘stable enough to map a spacecraft’s trajectory in deep space’ and will enable spaceships to calculate their own trajectories and navigate through deep space independently.

Engineers from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have attached the first extraterrestrial helicopter to the agency’s Mars 2020 rover. After landing on Mars, the helicopter will detach itself from the rover and conduct a series of tests to determine whether or not the autonomous vehicle can be flown in the planet’s extremely thin atmosphere.

Wired watchtower

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has confirmed in an article for Prospect that a cyberattack on one allied nation constitutes an attack on them all, triggering a ‘collective defence response’ pursuant to Article 5 of the organisation’s founding treaty. He wrote that NATO will operate and defend itself in cyberspace in the same way it does ‘in the air, on land, and at sea’.

US Cyber Command carried out a covert cyber operation against Iranian intelligence systems in June amid ‘an undeclared cyberconflict’ between the two countries. The systems targeted by the US were reportedly being used by Iran’s paramilitary arm to target commercial vessels in the Gulf. While Iran is still in the process of recovering from the intrusion, it’s thought that it may have learned critical information about Cyber Command’s capabilities.

Security researchers from Google have uncovered a hacking campaign involving a number of malicious websites which exploited software flaws in iPhones over a two-year period. It’s reported that the websites were used to target the Uyghur community in Xinjiang in what appears to have been a state-sponsored attack. By gaining access to a phone, hackers would have had access to the target’s messages, passwords and location, which, if true, is worrying given the Chinese government’s detention of more than a million Uyghurs in ‘re-education’ camps.

ASPI suggests

The world

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has prorogued parliament for five weeks beginning on 10 September in a bid that appears to be aimed at giving MPs less time to debate Brexit, a move some have labelled a ‘coup’. The Atlantic has two articles worth reading to understand this development— one providing an explainer on what’s next in the Brexit process, and the other addressing BoJo’s ‘assault’ on democracy and tossing up which populist politician he’s more similar to—US President Donald Trump or leader of Italy’s Lega party Matteo Salvini. The Atlantic Council offers some distinguished opinions on whether suspending parliament could strengthen Johnson’s position or bring on a vote of no-confidence in his leadership. Only time will tell. Experts also believe they may have the answer to the hotly debated Northern Ireland ‘backstop’, one of the biggest issues as the 31 October deadline looms.

Some interesting analysis on Ukraine has emerged this week. To kick us off, Foreign Policy outlines the prospects of President Volodymyr Zelensky continuing to build on recent economic growth and improving relations with the West despite the country’s recent tumultuous history. For a deep dive into the changing attitudes and identities of those living in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, see this report by the Centre for East European and International Studies or Bloomberg’s summary of its findings. Politico, meanwhile, highlights the frustrations experienced by US and Ukrainian lawmakers and security personnel as US$250 million of US military assistance is taking its time to arrive despite claims the funding is essential in deterring Russia.

Just over a week after Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned and the country’s governing coalition fell apart, he’s been given a new mandate to form government. Under the new arrangement, Conte will seek a coalition between his party, the anti-establishment Movimento Cinque Stelle, and the centre-left Partito Democratico instead of Salvini’s far-right, anti-immigration Lega, ousting him and his party from the governing coalition This Guardian piece gives a clear and succinct overview of the crisis to date.

Over to the Korean peninsula, where North Korea has recently changed its constitution to make Kim Jong-un not only supreme leader, but also ‘commander-in-chief’. This means Kim is now formally recognised as the country’s head of state. Reuters has more on this development, while National Review depicts the transition of North Korea’s leaders from men to gods. New satellite images show the Kim regime may be closer to building a new ballistic-missile submarine than previously thought, although the Center for Strategic and International Studies claims much of the evidence is circumstantial.

In Indonesia, the government has announced it’s moving the capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan. Rumours have been circulating for years about a possible relocation, but this is the first time the government has confirmed the new site. However, the move won’t come without costs. This article highlights the significant environmental degradation already occurring in East Kalimantan and points out that constructing a new city there may accelerate that progress. The Sydney Morning Herald has you covered for any questions about the move to the new capital, which is expected to welcome its first residents in 2024.

Further along the Indonesian archipelago, protests have continued for another week in Papua and West Papua as thousands of protesters rally for self-determination. With a reported seven deaths and an ongoing internet shutdown, it’s difficult to see the demonstrations ceasing anytime soon. Reuters has released an excellent explainer of the ongoing civil unrest, with a particularly interesting look at its historical roots.

Finally, with tensions continuing to run high in Hong Kong, and the prospect of a Chinese military intervention remaining a concern, there’s a great article in War on the Rocks on China’s People’s Armed Police.

Tech geek

The US is considering expanding the number and scale of its bases in the Indo-Pacific as a response to growing Chinese power. Potential options might include a greater US presence in Singapore, the Philippines or Thailand. One of the most interesting ideas that’s been floated is for enhanced access arrangements in Vietnam. China has reacted angrily to the suggestion, even as it extends its own reach by establishing a presence in Cambodia.

As an interim step towards the establishment of a US space force, the Trump administration has re-established US Space Command within the US Air Force, under the command of General John Raymond. It will include two components—a combined command to provide space support to military commanders and a space defence element to protect military satellites. The US National Reconnaissance Office, which operates America’s spy satellites, will also join space command.

Staying in space, the USAF’s X-37B space plane has broken the record for the number of consecutive days in orbit by passing the 718-day mark. The secret plane broke its own previous record of 717 days, 20 hours and 42 minutes in orbit. As the vehicle is highly classified, its actual mission and activities over this period are unknown. But amateur observers have managed to photograph the X-37B through telescopes.

Turning to a different kind of unmanned vehicle, an interesting article by Greg Rowland in Grounded Curiosity about the future of naval drone warfare looks at the concept of the ‘dronenaught’.

This week in history

This week in 1949, the USSR conducted its first nuclear test. Codenamed RDS-1, the bomb had a yield of 22 kilotons, slightly bigger than the atomic bomb ‘Fat Man’, which was dropped on Nagasaki in 1945.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera’s Rewind this week investigates the forgotten contribution of over 50,000 members of Laos’s Hmong people who were recruited by the CIA to fight the Pathet Lao in the late 1960s and 1970s. [25:22]

The annual Royal Air Force photography competition closed this week. See Forces Network for the stunning results.

Podcasts

Smart Women, Smart Power this week sat down with Bonnie Jenkins to discuss how she’s working to increase the number of young women in politics. [23:37]

Listen to the Wall Street Journal’s What’s News for the latest on how security concerns could put an end to a cable project to link China and the US. [13:38]

Events

Sydney, 7 September, 2–3 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Kokoda track archaeology’. Register here.

The Submarine Institute of Australia is holding a one-day seminar on the future of Australia’s submarine fleet and will consider the possibility of nuclear capabilities heading into the future. The event will be held at ASPI on 2 October. Tickets available here.

The Pentagon’s budget can’t fund America’s global commitments

The United States is facing a serious crisis of strategic insolvency in which the ends of its expansive strategy for building the liberal order outstrip the budgetary and military means at Washington’s disposal. Without hard choices by America’s political elite to spend more on defence or scale back the country’s global commitments, the Pentagon will continue to be left with insufficient resources to single-handedly maintain a favourable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

This is one of the headline judgements of our recent United States Studies Centre report, Averting crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific. These concerns also lie behind the Trump administration’s 2018 national defence strategy, which sounded a clarion call for prioritising great-power competition and rebuilding America’s atrophying military edge.

The size of the US defence budget is a key factor in our analysis. At US$716 billion in 2019, America spends more than the next seven nations combined, which makes arguments about the insufficiency of its defence budget hard to fathom. Were Washington to reduce its strategic horizons or convince allies to lift a greater share of the defence burden—particularly in the Middle East and Europe—its ability to uphold a favourable balance of power in a contested Indo-Pacific would be much less precarious.

But this is not currently the case. Many inside-the-beltway voices in Washington argue for even higher defence spending. While exact numbers are hard to pin down, many agree with the congressionally mandated National Defence Strategy Commission’s assessment that 3–5% annual growth above inflation is required to combat the risks posed by China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and global terrorism at acceptable levels.

This is an unrealistic objective. As we argue in our report, Congress will struggle to provide sustained defence budgets at that level of growth for a combination of political and fiscal reasons.

Two reports released earlier this month by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) support these conclusions and paint a similarly worrying picture of the funds available for future defence spending.

One is an update to the CBO’s 2019 budget and economic outlook, which forecasts that budget deficits will be more than US$800 billion higher over the next decade than it predicted earlier this year. The average annual deficit for the federal government between 2020 and 2029 is now projected to be US$1.2 trillion. That will push average deficits to 4.7% of GDP per year, well above the 50-year average of 2.9%.

Owing to recent increases in federal spending and lower-than-projected revenues as a result of tax cuts passed by Congress in 2017, America’s national debt will balloon to levels not seen since the end of World War II. As the CBO argues, ‘To put debt on a sustainable path, lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies—increasing revenues more than they would under current law, reducing spending below projected amounts, or adopting some combination of those approaches.’

This is unlikely to occur, jeopardising prospective growth in defence spending.

Over the past decade, increasing political polarisation and ideological division within Congress has made budget agreement difficult to achieve. Washington will face key milestones in the short to medium term that will make these political issues even harder to ignore. For instance, the Budget Control Act’s caps on discretionary spending expire in 2021, and interest payments on the national debt are projected to overtake total defence spending by 2023. The combination of a deteriorating fiscal outlook and a likely return to deficit politics will constrain political opportunities for reaching a 3–5% real increase in defence spending.

The second CBO report analyses the Pentagon’s 2020 Future Years Defense Program (FYDP)—a five-year projection of defence programs and costs—and underscores the growing mismatch between ambition and resources, as well as some worrying trends within the defence budget.

Crucially, the CBO estimates that the Pentagon expects its budget will decline by 4% between 2020 and 2024. That would significantly widen the gap between the national defence strategy’s goals and the Defense Department’s available resources. A 3–5% increase would entail defence budgets of between US$822 billion and US$958 billion by 2025, in constant 2020 dollars. After adjusting for inflation, however, the CBO calculates that America’s defence budget will only average US$700 billion in 2020 dollars over the next five years—a full 3% less than the Trump administration’s forecast in the 2019 budget request.

Many of the Pentagon’s own assumptions in its future years’ estimates are also too optimistic. For example, a number of accounts in the budget—such as military personnel, operations and acquisition—have been rising above inflation over the past several decades, something that the Pentagon doesn’t account for in its latest FYDP. While Defense has plans to keep the cost of these accounts constant, the CBO notes that in all cases ‘costs have historically grown more rapidly than they are projected to grow in the 2020 FYDP’.

Taken together, these accounts comprise about 81% of overall defence funding. Herein is the potential ‘death spiral’ at the heart of the defence budget. Near continuous use of ageing capabilities over the past three decades—many of which were built in the 1980s—has resulted in a joint force that is increasingly expensive to maintain and operate. As greater portions of the budget are devoted to maintaining an old and overworked force, less is left over to modernise the military for great-power competition.

These pressures present a considerable challenge for defence officials who are working hard to train, equip and posture the joint force for conventional deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Novel efforts are underway to address these shortfalls, some of which involve new technologies or changes to US military posture in the region. For now, though, the defence budget is unlikely to meet the needs of America’s global strategy. Australia and other allies need to start contemplating the requirements of collective defence.

National security wrap

The beat

Police arrest squatters in Athens

Police officers in Athens have raided the Exarchia district, known as an anarchist enclave, and arrested around 100 people for squatting. The area had been targeted by police amid concerns of drug trafficking. The squats have been boarded up and police will remain in the area to prevent former residents from returning.

Australian gamers arrested for alleged match-fixing

In an Australian first, police have arrested e-sports gamers for match-fixing. It’s alleged that the six gamers arranged to lose their matches during a Counter-Strike: Global Offensive tournament and placed bets on the outcomes of matches. The men have since been released, but if found guilty they could face up to 10 years in jail.

No need to bare all, Barcelona’s police have you covered

This summer, 174 beach bathers in Barcelona have been provided with emergency clothing kits, also known as ‘robbery kits’, by police. The kits, which include a t-shirt, shorts, thongs and a metro ticket, have been well received by those exposed to (and by) thieves on Barcelona’s beaches. The number of kits handed out has increased since they were introduced in 2016, with Barcelona’s battle with beach thieves showing no sign of abating.

Checkpoint

Northern Ireland’s no-deal Brexit warning

Northern Ireland’s police chief has claimed that a no-deal Brexit would have a detrimental impact on security there. Simon Byrne says his officers don’t have the resources to effectively control the border with the Republic of Ireland, should checkpoints be reinstated. He also warned that the return of a hard border,  in the event of a no-deal Brexit, could prompt more people to join extremist and dissident groups in the region.

Phone checks at Hong Kong border

British travellers heading to Hong Kong have been informed by the Foreign Office that their electronic devices could be checked at the border with mainland China. This comes as British consulate worker Simon Cheng, who was detained at the border in Shenzhen earlier this month, was released by Chinese authorities. Hong Kong citizens and foreign visitors are now being warned to delete any photos or content related to the Hong Kong protests when crossing the border into mainland China.

Baby girl in critical condition after Texas crossing

US Customs and Border Protection says a six-month-old girl is in a critical condition after illegally crossing the US–Mexico border with her father. The pair was part of a group of 21 people who were apprehended in Texas. The baby and her father were transported to a processing centre, though it’s unclear what the nature of her illness is. This follows the Trump administration’s announcement that it will seek to allow the indefinite detention of undocumented children with their families while their immigration cases are determined.

CT scan

Senior al-Qaeda leader assassinated

Senior al-Qaeda member Abu Khallad al-Muhandis was killed by an improvised explosive device in Syria last week. Al-Muhandis was one of five al-Qaeda figures released in Iran in 2015 as part of a prisoner swap deal with al-Qaeda in Yemen. The identities of his assassins are as yet  unknown, but al-Qaeda has implied that he might have been killed by a rival  group.

IS children repatriated to Europe

Two young orphaned sons of a female Islamic State fighter are to be returned to their Austrian grandmother after DNA test results helped her gain custody of them. It’s the first such repatriation case in Austria but at least three other children could soon follow. A broader trend in Europe is emerging, evidenced last week when four German children under the age of 10 were repatriated to Germany.

Convicted terrorists less likely to reoffend

A US report has found that the recidivism rate of those convicted of terrorism-related offences is substantially lower than those convicted of other crimes. It found just 1.6% of politically motivated criminals reoffended while 44% of those convicted of other crimes were rearrested within a year. The study gave no clear answer as to why this might be the case but concluded that policies increasing the surveillance of released terrorists are, at best, ‘questionable’.

First responder

New search engine tool for first responders

Engineers from the University of California, Riverside, are developing a search engine interface for first responders which will allow them to retrieve information on a specific emergency in real time. The tool will enable emergency service personnel to improve their response times and resource allocation in life-and-death situations.

Mystery lung disease claims first victim

US health officials have confirmed the death of an adult who was hospitalised with an unknown lung disease that has now affected nearly 200 other people in the country since June. While the cause of the sudden outbreak is still undetermined, all the victims have stated that they had vaped either cannabis or tobacco products before getting sick. The outbreak is now being investigated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration.

Trump goes nuclear over hurricanes

Though he claims the story was made up to embarrass him, US President Donald Trump has reportedly suggested the nuclear bombing of hurricanes as a way to prevent them from making landfall. According to Axios, Trump floated the idea in 2017. Soon after Trump’s election victory in 2016, National Geographic published an article outlining all the reasons why nuking hurricanes is a ‘really bad idea’.

The five-domains update

Sea state

The US Navy will hold its first-ever joint maritime drill with all 10 ASEAN member states next month. According to the US embassy in Bangkok, the purpose of the maritime exercise is to ‘maintain maritime security, focus on prevention and pre-empt wrongdoing in the sea’. The announcement came after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sought support for the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy at a regional summit earlier this month.

The UK has sent a third warship to the Persian Gulf to as part of the US-led effort to safeguard freedom of navigation. The destroyer HMS Defender will join HMS Kent and HMS Montrose in providing ‘reassurance to the shipping industry’ against Iranian aggression. The deployment comes as tensions continue to rise between Iran and Britain after their tit-for-tat detainments of each other’s oil tankers.

Photos have revealed that China is building what’s set to be the Chinese navy’s largest amphibious assault ship. The Type 075 ship, which is being constructed in Shanghai, will feature a flight deck for five or six large transport helicopters and is expected to launch at the end of this year. Once complete, the vessel will dwarf most of its international counterparts and will become the centrepiece of China’s amphibious capability.

Flight path

Chinese military officials ‘responded with fury’ after US President Donald Trump approved the sale of 66 F-16V jets to Taiwan in a US$8 billion deal. Somewhat confusingly, a Chinese officer also claimed the new jets would be ‘useless’ for Taiwan’s protection and will be an ‘extra financial burden’ on the Taiwanese people. This is the second time this year that Beijing has condemned American arms sales to Taiwan. China said it would sanction US firms involved in the sale, though manufacturer Lockheed Martin does little business in China.

Boeing has been awarded a US$999 million contract to supply the US Air Force’s remaining 109 A-10 Warthogs with wing replacements after it completed a package of 173 wing replacements earlier this month. If all options are implemented, Boeing will supply 112 wing assemblies and 15 wing kits, which will ‘increase the flexibility of the aircraft, depending on how many are needed in the future’. The USAF had considered retiring the A-10, which has been in service for about 40 years, but this announcement is expected to extend the lives of the planes into the 2030s.

The Israel Defense Forces have confirmed that Israeli soldiers on the Golan Heights last week opened fire on a civilian light aircraft that they believed was hostile. It’s possible the aircraft was mistaken for a Syrian drone since there have been previous drone incursions into the area. Local media reports the plane was a crop-duster that was spraying fields near the Syrian border.

Rapid fire

The Australian Army has announced a $30 million deal with Saab Australia to provide ‘fully integrated maintenance support’ for its ground-based air defence and counter-rocket, -artillery and -mortar systems as well as its radar capability. The contract streamlines existing agreements to ensure the ‘availability and effectiveness of these important capabilities’ being fielded by the 16th Regiment of the Royal Australian Artillery.

Around 220 engineers from Australia, Timor-Leste, Japan and the US are in Dili for Exercise Hari’i Hamutuk, which means ‘build together’ in Tetum. Australian Brigadier Matt Pearse said the exercise is ‘a great opportunity for our sappers to work alongside and learn from other security forces in the region’. Defence Minister Linda Reynolds said the exercises will ‘enhance regional partnerships at a time of historical significance for Australia and our Timorese neighbours’, a reference to the 20th anniversary of the Australian-led intervention in the country.

Jane’s reports that ‘Centre 2019’ will take place next month and will be Russia’s largest military exercise this year. It’s expected to involve ‘at least 128,000 personnel from seven nations, as well as 600 aircraft and up to 450 artillery systems’. Quoting Russian news agency TASS, Jane’s says the exercise will also involve China, Pakistan, India and other Central Asian nations to demonstrate the ‘readiness of the military of Russia and Central Asian states to protect national interests’.

Final frontier

India’s Chandrayann-2 mission entered the moon’s orbit last week, putting it on track for its scheduled lunar landing in early September. The mission, which was launched on 22 July, will be the first to examine the moon’s southern polar region and includes a lander designed to execute a soft landing on the moon’s surface. If the mission is successful, India will become the fourth nation to land on the moon, following Israel’s failed attempt earlier in the year.

Sierra Nevada Corporation revealed its ‘Large Inflatable Fabric Environment’ (Get it?—Eds) prototype in Houston last week. The prototype is an inflatable ‘human-tended orbital platform’ designed to ‘support missions on the moon’s surface and future flights into deep space’. It’s one of five concepts NASA is considering for its lunar outpost known as Gateway. Sierra Nevada repurposed technologies from its Dream Chaser program to develop the habitat, which will be able to fit inside a rocket and then expand to 8 metres by 8 metres once deployed.

The Trump administration has formally issued a new space policy that establishes a three-tier approval system for the use of spacecraft with payloads carrying systems to support the use of nuclear power in space. The first two tiers require the approval of a spacecraft’s sponsoring agency, and in certain cases a yet-to-be-established interagency nuclear safety review board, while the third tier requires presidential authorisation.

Wired watchtower

Australia will block access to internet domains that host terrorist material during terror attacks and that host ‘abhorrent’ material recorded by the perpetrator of a terror attack. The e-safety commissioner has been tasked with determining what to block on a case-by-case basis, and a 24/7 crisis centre will be established to monitor online content. The government will also consider whether to force digital platforms to improve the safety of their services through legislation.

Amid ongoing unrest in the provinces of Papua and West Papua, the Indonesian government has enforced an internet blackout in the region. A spokesman for the country’s communications ministry confirmed that the internet would remain blocked to the population there ‘until the situation gets back to normal’.

Ukrainian security services have discovered an illegal bitcoin mining operation at a nuclear power plant in the south of the country. A worker had installed bitcoin-mining equipment in one of the nuclear plant’s administrative buildings, inadvertently exposing the plant’s internal network to the internet. The worker responsible was demoted and ordered to pay for the electricity used by his computers.

ASPI suggests

The world

Following its formal withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the US has tested a nuclear-capable medium- range cruise missile. For the details on the launch, see War is Boring. Russia and China have both condemned the launch, as reported by the Financial Times and USNI News in articles outlining the renewed threats of an arms race throughout Europe and Asia. The test also comes as the United States Studies Centre launched a major report on America’s fading military primacy in the Indo-Pacific, reinforced by this War on the Rocks article exploring the myths behind the assumption that the US still holds conventional military dominance. It’s worth asking whether the recent missile test will change these perspectives.

We’re continuing to keep track of the latest developments in Kashmir after India’s revocation of its special status. This article in the Economic Times presents a good overview of the domestic and international considerations driving the thinking behind India’s decision. Ashok Malik’s article in the Hindustan Times unentangling India’s three-pronged diplomatic challenge on Kashmir is well worth your time. For balance, read Ayesha Siddiqa’s article in The Print, which argues that ‘visionary diplomacy’ is Pakistan’s only option on this issue. And while we’re at it, listen to Srinath Raghavan dissect the historical, geopolitical and ideological dimensions of the Kashmir dispute in this episode of The Seen and the Unseen podcast. [2:26:11]

On a related note, Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh’s statement hinting at ambiguity in India’s ‘no first use’ nuclear doctrine created quite a stir this week, especially in South Asia. This explainer by Vipin Narang and Christopher Clary, arguing that India’s nuclear stance has evolved, is useful. Not all India hands agree, however; Manpreet Sethi presents a useful counter in this episode of the States of Anarchy podcast. [55:33]

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced that Australia will send 200 defence force personnel, a frigate and a P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft to the Middle East as part of the international effort to stabilise the Strait of Hormuz. ASPI’s Malcolm Davis highlights the reasons behind the deployment and the risks associated with it, including the potential to be drawn into another long and costly conflict far from home. The Age is more scathing, drawing a comparison to Australia’s protracted involvement in Iraq and highlighting declining US power.

Heading south, Lawfare has an interesting read on the lessons learned from the UAE’s involvement in the Saudi-led coalition in the war in Yemen, as well as the dire possibilities should the UAE’s withdrawal leave a power vacuum. And Human Rights Watch has released evidence showing that the Saudi-led coalition has launched at least five attacks on Yemeni fishing vessels since last year, resulting in 47 deaths and the capture of 100 people, who were held and tortured in Saudi Arabia.

For those of you following the debate generated by Hugh White’s provocative book, How to defend Australia ,don’t miss this Strategist piece by ASPI’s Marcus Hellyer, who invokes the classics in his review. Also on The Strategist, Peter Varghese highlights Australian universities’ growing dilemma over their engagement with China, arguing that while such engagement is beneficial, it’s important for universities to adopt a ‘clear-eyed’ approach, so as not to jeopardise our national security.

Here’s one for the archaeologists among you. The mystery of how roughly 500 people died and had their remains scattered around Roopkund Lake in the Indian Himalayas has just become more of mystery with new evidence unearthed in a paper in Nature Communications. And if you’re looking to make sense of US President Donald Trump’s recent tantrum over Greenland, this article in Foreign Policy might provide some answers (we’re not making any promises).

Tech geek

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has announced the second major test of its Offensive Swarm-Enabled Tactics, or OFFSET, program. The project uses groups of autonomous air and ground robots to aid ground teams that have limited mobility and visibility. In the exercise, teams completed tasks that included ‘locating and isolating a mock city hall building, locating and securing an objective inside, and then securing the building—all while maintaining situational awareness of the surrounding area’. Footage from the exercise can be found here.

Russian company Rogozin, infamous for its ‘battle-bot’ video that went viral in April, has announced that it will be sending its latest AI-powered robot into space. The robot, called FEDOR, which stands for ‘Final Experimental Demonstration Object Research’, is finishing up its preparations for its launch to the International Space Station next week. During FEDOR’s two-week stay on the ISS, developers will observe the effects of microgravity on artificially intelligent robots. You can follow FEDOR’s journey alongside its 4,000 fans on Twitter.

Finally, from lasers to facial recognition, this Al Jazeera article explores the role that technology is playing in Hong Kong’ pro-democracy protests.

This week in history

This week in 1945, Indonesia, under the leadership of Sukarno, proclaimed independence from the Netherlands. See here for how Indonesia celebrates the day and some fast facts about the country.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera sits down with the leader of the Pakistani Peoples Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who offers his opinions on India’s decision to revoke the special status of Kashmir. [24:00]

As the situation deteriorates in the Indonesian provinces of Papua and West Papua, see The Guardian for shocking photos of the protests there.

Podcasts

The Lowy Institute brings you a panel discussion which is aptly described by the podcast’s title, ‘Making sense of President Trump’s Iran policy’. [1:03.15]

And for a more general look into the latest happenings in international affairs, see Pod Save the World, which covers the collapse of Italy’s government, Chinese propaganda, Russian nuclear explosions and more. [1:08.55]

Events

Brisbane, 27 August, 6–7.30 pm, Australian Institute of International Affairs: ‘Getting down to the business of increasing trade and investment between India and Australia.’ Tickets here ($15).

Canberra, 28 August, 5.30–6.45 pm, Australian National University: ‘Alternative visions for Australia’s future, delivered by the Hon Dr Kevin Rudd.’ Register here.

 

National security wrap

The beat

Footage of police brutality leads to arrests in Hong Kong

Amid accusations of police brutality linked to pro-democracy protests, two Hong Kong police officers have been arrested after footage was released of them assaulting a man on a hospital trolley. Police spokesman John Tse said the officers’ conduct was clearly ‘unlawful’ and vowed that a full, independent inquiry into the incident would be undertaken.

Police regain control following protests in West Papua

Police in West Papua have regained control after violent protests erupted over the recent detention of 43 Papuan students. Protesters across Papua and West Papua reacted to the alleged mistreatment and verbal abuse of the students detained for bending a flagpole during the celebration of Indonesia’s independence day. Deputy governor Mohamad Lakotani said the protestors had torched buildings and blocked streets in Manokwari—the provincial capital of West Papua—‘burning tyres and tree branches, paralysing the town’.

AFP maintains smartphone is a computer

The Australian Federal Police has appealed a court decision that overturned a warrant on the basis that a smartphone is not legally considered a computer. The police argue that a smartphone ‘performs the same functions and mathematical computations as a computer’. In August last year, the AFP obtained a warrant under section 3LA of the Crimes Act—which requires a device to be a computer or computer system—to unlock a smartphone. The Federal Court decision effectively invalidates the police warrant.

Checkpoint

Italy’s interior minister lets refugee children land

Twenty-seven unaccompanied minors were allowed to leave the migrant rescue ship, Open Arms, and disembark on the Italian island of Lampedusa, after Interior Minister Matteo Salvini gave in to pressure from other Italian officials. The rescue ship had remained at sea for more than two weeks because of Salvini’s policy prohibiting aid groups from landing in the country. While the minors will now be processed, the fate of others still aboard the vessel remains uncertain. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who urged Salvini to allow the children to land, has since been forced to resign.

US border agents arrest Interpol fugitive

US Customs and Border Protection says border patrol agents in Texas have arrested a man wanted for murder by Interpol. Marouana Bah, a 30-year-old French citizen, was found to have been in the US illegally. He was stopped at a border patrol checkpoint, where a check showed that he had an active Interpol warrant for murder in France. Bah, who was travelling on a passport that didn’t belong to him, was taken into custody.

Gunmen killed at Gaza border

Palestinian officials say Israeli forces killed three members of a group of armed men trying to cross the Gaza border, and injured another. The men were intercepted on the weekend, after three rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel. It was the latest in a series of attempts by armed Palestinians to cross into Israel from Gaza over the past two weeks.

CT scan

Returning foreign fighters pose threat to Indonesia

Indonesia’s Countering Foreign Terrorist Fighters Task Force has released data indicating that the nation faces an imminent threat from terrorists returning from the Middle East. Around 80% of all foreign fighters who left Indonesia to fight in Syria joined the Islamic State terror group. Now more than 600 of the fighters have returned home and roughly the same number remain in Syria and Iraq. Returning foreign fighters have caused problems in the past, most notably by helping terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah carry out attacks. The suicide bombings of three churches in Surabaya last year were reportedly carried out by a family that had returned from Syria.

Syrian jihadist group loses stronghold

The Syria-based jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has been forced from the strategic stronghold of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province due to the ‘heavy bombardment’ and scorched-earth tactics used by Syrian government forces. Syria-based Saudi cleric Abdallah al-Muhaysini, wrote that the conditions on the ground were ‘beyond [their] ability to endure’. Messages sent on the Telegram app since the defeat have shown the ‘downbeat tone’ and a possible loss of morale among jihadists in Northern Syria.

Islamic State ‘blooper’ video leaked

Al-Qaeda has leaked a video of a rival fighter in Yemen being thwarted by a bird as he tries to renew his allegiance to Islamic State. In the video, the militant is interrupted by the squawking bird which causes him to lose concentration and forget his lines. It’s not clear how the video was leaked, but it also shows propaganda outtakes from two other men.

First responder

Could the humble goat solve Portugal’s wildfire woes?

Portuguese officials are hopeful that goats could provide Portugal’s first line of defence against wildfires, which have ravaged the country in recent years. It’s hoped that the goats will serve as a simple, low-cost preventative tool by feeding on ‘the underbrush that fuels [the] fires’. For the program to be effective, advocates say the Portuguese government will need to provide support for the country’s shrinking pool of shepherds to look after the goats.

Chlamydia vaccine shows promise

A chlamydia vaccine has shown promise after it proved to be both safe and able to stimulate the immune systems of women volunteers in a clinical trial. If further tests are successful, the vaccine could help fill a global medical gap that scientists have been trying to meet since the 1960s. The vaccine will now move to a second phase that will examine if it is able to prevent infection.

Flood alerts in Pakistan after India relieves dam pressure

Flood alerts were issued in Pakistan’s Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces on Monday after Indian authorities released water into the Sutlej River ‘without preschedule’. Pakistan’s disaster management authority warned that water released from Alchi dam and heavy rains could lead to flooding in the Indus River.