Tag Archive for: Foreign Policy

‘With a little help from my friends’: Capitalising on opportunity at AUSMIN 2022

The annual Australia-US Ministerial Consultations have been the primary forum for bilateral engagement since 1985. The Australian Minister for Defence and Minister for Foreign Affairs will meet with their American counterparts in Washington in 2022, in the 71st year of the alliance, and it’s arguably never been so important.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute is proud to release ‘With a little help from my friends’: Capitalising on opportunity at AUSMIN 2022, a report featuring chapters from our defence, cyber and foreign policy experts to inform and guide the Australian approach to the 2022 AUSMIN consultations.

In this report, ASPI harnesses its broad and deep policy expertise to provide AUSMIN’s principals with tangible policy recommendations to take to the US. The following chapters describe Australia’s most pressing strategic challenges. The authors offer policy recommendations for enhancing Australian and US collaboration to promote security and economic prosperity.

The collection of essays covers topics and challenges that the US and Australia must tackle together: defence capability, foreign affairs, climate change, foreign interference, rare earths, cyber, technology, the Pacific, space, integrated deterrence and coercive diplomacy. In each instance, there are opportunities for concrete, practical policy steps to ensure cohesion and stability.”

Australian views on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

Australian officials surveyed for this research view the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) as an opportunity to bring more investment into the Indo-Pacific region, shape standards setting, form collective solutions to supply-chain risks, and influence the direction of clean energy infrastructure. The IPEF is viewed as a potentially innovative way to boost regional investment rather than as a mechanism to strengthen the usual substance of trade agreements, such as market access into the US.

While we note that the officials interviewed aren’t the ultimate decision-makers and that there’s a new government in Canberra with its own emerging priorities, this report offers insight into the potential opportunities for Australia to shape the framework.

Meeting Antarctica’s diplomatic challenges: Joint approaches for Australia and the United States

This report describes current security and environmental policy challenges related to Antarctica and proposes options for Australia and the United States to address them. It assesses the current and potential future actions of strategic competitors like China and Russia, and proposes policy responses.

It suggests ways in which the US and Australian governments can work more closely to protect and promote the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), advancing support for an approach to governance that the two nations have felt for decades is in their respective national interests. This requires both countries (as well as others) to make a clear-eyed assessment of current and future fault lines and move more quickly to address political and environmental challenges that have implications well beyond Antarctica. In particular, this involves determining when it’s necessary to counter the ambitions of strategic competitors, such as China and Russia, in the Antarctic context, and when cooperation may be the more appropriate objective.

The current Antarctic governance regime, while far from perfect… achieves a great deal that’s in the long-term national interests of Australia and the US. The ATS shouldn’t be dismissed as out of date; it can still be effective in addressing core regional concerns of both countries. Both countries can use their influence to insist on the implementation by all countries of ATS rules and can invoke those rules to fight for environmental protection and policies that support scientists. It’s unlikely that a more effective set of treaties could be negotiated today. Australia and the US should spend more time at both senior and working levels to coordinate positions and on outreach to other governments on Antarctic issues.

The costs of discounted diplomacy

This report outlines how and why Australia has under-appreciated diplomacy and under-invested in diplomatic capability—and why things should change.

The prominence of deterrence, alliances and border controls in Australian security thinking has pushed diplomacy into the shadows.

Over the last twenty years, Australian governments, sensibly, have invested massively in defence, intelligence and border control. Over the same period, though, the operating budget for DFAT’s foreign policy and diplomatic work, has been cut by 9 per cent.

In a more contested and multipolar international environment, lightweight diplomacy reflects lightweight thinking. Australia will be safer, richer, better regarded and more self-respecting if our diplomatic influence is enlarged, not if it remains stunted.

A properly funded DFAT can improve the government’s understanding of the motivations, intentions and capabilities of others, and help the government to develop policies and coalitions that enable Australia to navigate risks and exploit opportunities.

The report recommends that the government prepare a comprehensive capability assessment for DFAT, followed by a financial plan to match capability needs.

The report will help analysts calculate whether governments are increasing or decreasing the critical operating budget for DFAT’s policy function—an important bellwether of their commitment to the role of diplomacy in Australia’s national security.

Agenda for change 2022: Shaping a different future for our nation

In line with previous Agenda for Change publications from 2016 and 2019, this piece is being released in anticipation of a federal election as a guide for the next government within its first months and over the full term. Our 2022 agenda acknowledges that an economically prosperous and socially cohesive Australia is a secure and resilient Australia.

ASPI’s Agenda for change 2019: strategic choices for the next government did, to a great extent, imagine a number of those challenges, including in Peter Jennings’ chapter on ‘The big strategic issues’. But a lot has changed since 2019. It was hard to imagine the dislocating impacts of the Black Summer fires, Covid-19 in 2020 and then the Delta and Omicron strains in 2021, trade coercion from an increasingly hostile China, or the increasingly uncertain security environment.

Fast forward to today and that also applies to the policies and programs we need to position us in a more uncertain and increasingly dangerous world.

Our Agenda for change 2022 acknowledges that what might have served us well in the past won’t serve us well in this world of disruption. In response, our authors propose a smaller number of big ideas to address the big challenges of today and the future. Under the themes of getting our house in order and Australia looking outward, Agenda for change 2022 focuses on addressing the strategic issues from 2021 and beyond.

SBY’s tears: from managing crisis to managing process in Australia-Indonesia relations since the fall of Suharto

On 21 May 1998, Suharto resigned as president of Indonesia, ending the authoritarian New Order regime he had led since 1966.

In the 23 years since, Indonesia has had five presidents. It became the world’s third largest democracy. It granted wider powers to its regions while losing one province, East Timor, to independence. It emerged as one of the world’s top ten economies (in PPP terms) and a member of the G20, which it will chair in 2022.

At the same time, Indonesia has suffered grievously from terrorism and the greatest natural disaster in recorded history. Its democracy is now taking an illiberal turn. Corruption is rife and inequality is worsening. Separatism remains an issue.

This series plots this history and Australia’s part in it through the eyes and experience of six of its ambassadors to Jakarta over this period. It reveals a fundamental shift from a relationship defined by crisis management to one that’s now more about process management, and offers advice on how Canberra should build our ties at a time of greater geopolitical challenges.

Episode 1 – John McCarthy AO

In this episode, David Engel, Head of ASPI’s Indonesia program, and former ASPI Research Intern Hillary Mansour speak to John McCarthy AO, who was Ambassador to Indonesia from 1997 to 2001. They discuss some of the major developments during his time in the post, including the fall of Suharto, President Habibie and the Reformasi, East Timor, the election of Gus Dur and former prime minister John Howard’s relationship with the country’s leaders.

Episode 2 – Ric Smith AO

In this episode, Dr David Engel and Hillary Mansour speak to Ric Smith AO, PSM, who was Australia’s Ambassador to Indonesia from 2001 until 2002. The conversation explores economic reform after the Asian Financial Crisis, the end of Gus Dur’s presidency and the beginning of Megawati’s presidency, and the state of Australia’s relationship with Indonesia during Smith’s tenure. They also discuss the Tampa affair and the 2002 Bali bombings, and how Australia should engage with its northern neighbour.

Episode 3 – David Ritchie AO

In this episode, Dr David Engel and Hillary Mansour speak to David Ritchie AO, who was Australia’s Ambassador to Indonesia from 2002 until 2005. This discuss the different crisis which took place during his time as ambassador including the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, a terror attack on the Australian Embassy and the arrest of the Bali Nine. They explore Australia-Indonesia cooperation in addressing these challenges and how the relationship changed during Ritchie’s time as ambassador.

Episode 4 – Bill Farmer AO

In this episode of ASPI’s special series, Dr David Engel speaks to Bill Farmer AO, Ambassador to Indonesia from 2005 until 2010. They discuss the pivotal moments in the Australia-Indonesia relationship during Bill’s tenure, SBY’s presidency and Indonesia’s response to the Global Financial Crisis, and Indonesia’s foreign policy. They also reflect on the signing of the Lombok Treaty, developments in people smuggling and counterterrorism and highlight how Australia should approach its northern neighbour going forward.

Episode 5 – Gary Quinlan AO

In this episode of ‘SBY’s tears’, Dr David Engel, Head of ASPI’s Indonesia Program and Hillary Mansour, former ASPI Research Intern, speak to Gary Quinlan AO, who was Ambassador to Indonesia from 2018 until 2021. Their conversation explores developments in the Australia-Indonesia economic relationship, the development of Indonesia’s democracy and the relationship between religion and politics in the country. They also consider the impacts of climate change and Covid-19 on Indonesia and Australia’s use of soft power.

Episode 6 – Greg Moriarty

In the penultimate episode of the series, Dr David Engel, Head of ASPI’s Indonesia Program and Hillary Mansour, former ASPI Research Intern, speak to Greg Moriarty, who was ambassador to Indonesia from 2010 until 2014. Their conversation explores Indonesia’s foreign policy under SBY, the bilateral economic relationship and cooperation in the area of counter-terrorism. They also discuss some of the challenges in the bilateral relationship, such as the banning of live cattle exports to Indonesia and people smuggling.

Episode 7 – Series Final

In this final episode of the series, Dr David Engel, Head of ASPI’s Indonesia Program and Hillary Mansour, former ASPI Research Intern, revisit some of the themes explored throughout the series, such as Indonesia’s foreign policy, its relationship with Australia and the changes to Indonesian democracy. They reflect on the past experiences of Australia’s ambassadors, and how these lessons can impact our future relationship with Indonesia.

Collaborative and agile. Intelligence community collaboration insights from the United Kingdom and the United States

The central aim of this report is to generate insights from the US and UK intelligence communities’ collaboration efforts. It identifies insights so that members of Australia’s national intelligence community, including the ONI, can use them to enhance the community’s collaboration and agility for the purpose of giving Australian decision-makers an insight edge over others. We acknowledge that agencies must contextualise those insights to Australia’s specific circumstances, and we’ve sought to do some of that in this report. The report isn’t intended as an academic think piece but as a guide-and goad-to actions that can advance and protect Australia’s wellbeing, prosperity and security.

This report doesn’t seek to second-guess the internal insights that it explores. Instead, it takes an external perspective, informed by experience in relevant agencies and by perspectives from intelligence-community partners and analysts in the UK and the US.

Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s crisis: And the implications for Australia

The rapidly unfolding Myanmar crisis is presenting Southeast Asia with one of its most severe security and stability threats in the past three decades. While the region is certainly familiar with military coups and violent changes of government, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar carries risks far more acute than previous coups d’etat in the region.

One of them is the risk to the sustained modus operandi of the region’s key institution—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The outcome of ASEAN’s involvement in the Myanmar crisis is consequential not only for the Myanmar people, but also for the association’s ability to credibly lead efforts to preserve peace and security in the region into the future.

In this report, we assess the security situation in Myanmar, ASEAN’s collective response and the individual roles of key ASEAN member states in the mediating process. We focus on the effect that the Myanmar crisis has on the overall ASEAN political and security situation, and highlight Indonesia’s leadership, and limitations, in the process. We also detail the legal instruments and responsibility of ASEAN—in the form of the ASEAN Charter—to uphold the rule of law. The report concludes with some policy implications for the wider region, particularly Australia.

Sliding-door moments: ANZUS and the Blue Pacific

The report examines some key ‘sliding-door’ moments that have shaped the trajectory of ANZUS in the Pacific Island region over seven decades, to reach the current confused state within the alliance regarding its aims in the Pacific Islands.

Our Pacific neighbours recognise that their security is tied up with the region’s new and complex geopolitical environment and they have made it clear that they have no wish to be a catspaw in any strategic rivalries.

The report argues that ANZUS has not been fully functional as an alliance for several decades. If its three members are not unified on Pacific Island regional security, the alliance can scarcely advance the Islands concerns more widely.

For these reasons, the report recommends that ANZUS strengthen its internal machinery by finding the accommodation needed to resume ANZUS Council Meetings. It also recommends using the Treaty’s Article VIII provisions to incorporate supportive extra-regional powers into an ‘ANZUS Plus’ While recognising that ANZUS isn’t a humanitarian aid agency, as co-author Dr Anthony Bergin notes, “we can’t ignore the security importance of regional infrastructure.”

The report also recommends that the ANZUS allies act proactively through national aid programmes to identify and protect these interests in partnership with the Island states’ public and private sectors to prevent key assets becoming strategic bones of contention.

Snapshot in a turbulent time: Australian HADR capabilities, challenges and opportunities

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Australia has demonstrated the capacity and capabilities for fast, scalable responses to disasters and humanitarian crises in recent history. Australian governments, agencies, NGOs and the public have proven determined and flexible in both domestic and regional disasters and humanitarian crises. 

Looking forward, Australia’s established capabilities are facing new and growing challenges in disaster preparedness and response. The Indo-Pacific is facing a complex network of established, evolving and intersecting climate, conflict and human-security risks.

Without innovation in strategy and capabilities, the financial cost of regional disasters will continue to vastly outpace the capacity of Australia to fund preparedness and response efforts comprehensively enough to mitigate the human and strategic security risks those disasters pose.

This report presents a snapshot view of the current Indo-Pacific threatscape looking forward for Australia; takes a retrospective look at how key Australian HADR capabilities have been developed through lessons from domestic and regional disasters; considers the possible value in a strategy for what value-add northern Australia can bring to national HADR capabilities; and presents three areas of ‘low-hanging fruit’ for HADR capability uplift.

Tag Archive for: Foreign Policy

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