Recent reports talk about China’s possible establishment of a ‘fourth’ naval fleet with jurisdiction over the Indian Ocean region (IOR), joining the existing North Sea Fleet, East Sea Fleet, and South Sea Fleet. This mysterious fourth fleet will supposedly be based on Hainan Island—even though the island falls under the jurisdiction of the South Sea Fleet and is some distance away from the IOR. For that reason, many see a prospective Chinese fleet covering the IOR to be either entirely speculative or, at best, a hollow force existing in name only.

One should certainly be wary of overstating China’s military capabilities or, indeed, ambitions. Taking a worst-case view of a Chinese naval fleet in the IOR could overshadow more modest but also more plausible concerns about other possible roles for a fourth fleet based out of Hainan Island. Read more

This week’s wrap kicks off with an in-depth profile of German Chancellor Angela Merkel from the New Yorker’s December edition. Pay attention to Merkel’s strategy for dealing with Vladimir Putin and her razor-sharp insights into his psychology: on his attempt to intimidate her with his black Labrador (Merkel is terrified of dogs), she said ‘I understand why he has to do this—to prove he’s a man…He’s afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this.’

Meanwhile, Putin shared his thoughts (translated into English) with National State Television and Radio Company this week on the Minsk Protocol and the possibility of war between Russia and Ukraine.

Sadly, ISIS members in Mosul decided to express their artistic differences with ancient artefacts by taking to them with sledgehammers and power tools in an effort to destroy ‘false idols’. But The Atlantic’s David Graham offers a different take on the matter: ‘In reality, the relationship with icons in all three Abrahamic religions is rather more elaborate than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi would want us to believe—but the tradition is there. Destroying traces of forebears, and even robbing and destroying tombs, has perhaps a longer tradition in civilization than preservation.’ Keep reading here. Read more

The development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is of the utmost importance for Australia’s strategic policy. There’s a growing realisation in Asia and the United States that the PLA is gradually coming closer to developing a comprehensive ‘counter intervention’ capability, better known in Western strategic debate as ‘anti-access/ area denial’ (A2/AD). Beijing’s aim is to raise the costs of US military intervention in a conflict with one of its neighbours in East or Southeast Asia to a prohibitively high level—with potentially enormous ramifications for a regional security order long based on uncontested US military power in the Western Pacific. The newly released US Defense Department report on China’s Military is further testimony to China’s becoming a major military power in Asia.

Each year, the Pentagon is asked to provide the US Congress with a comprehensive, realistic assessment of the PLA’s evolution. Analysing the military capabilities of a player as opaque as China is always challenging and earlier reports sometimes appeared a bit alarmist regarding certain PLA capability areas. But overall, the reports struck a balance between progress and shortfalls. This year’s version comes amidst growing regional anxiety about China’s growing maritime assertiveness (such as its recent oil rig dispute with Vietnam) and fierce exchanges between US and Chinese defence officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Read more

Ben Schreer correctly noted yesterday that the US had ‘demonstrated its will and capability to contest China’s ADIZ in East Asia’.

As Daniel Russel, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs at the Department of State, told the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific on Wednesday:

China’s announcement of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea in November was a provocative act and a serious step in the wrong direction. The Senkakus are under the administration of Japan and unilateral attempts to change the status quo raise tensions and do nothing under international law to strengthen territorial claims. The United States neither recognizes nor accepts China’s declared East China Sea ADIZ and has no intention of changing how we conduct operations in the region. China should not attempt to implement the ADIZ and should refrain from taking similar actions elsewhere in the region.

China’s unilateral and sudden action on the ADIZ is a violation of the Law of the Sea Convention, which ensures high seas freedoms throughout the EEZ beyond 12 nm, including airspace activities. The ICAO-authorised flight information region is recognised in the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation as the sole management authority for international civil aviation. Read more