Tag Archive for: Donald Trump

The 7th annual Madeleine awards

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‘Monetary policy is 98 per cent talk and 2 per cent action.’

– Ben Bernanke

So even central banking—that combination of the dismal science and monetary madness—is virtually voodoo, driven most of the time by smoke signals and slight of hands and diatribes and desperate debating points.

No wonder the Fed thinks jawboning is a major policy weapon.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it ain’t just about the facts and the logic, the guns and the money.

It’s about the story. How well it’s told and sold. How much is believed.

The doctor who scribed better than most writers, Oliver Sacks, captured it this way: ‘I suspect that a feeling for stories, for narrative, is a universal human disposition going along with our powers of language.’

The idea the human brain is getting support from neuroscience, psychology and evolutionary sciences. The novelists are being joined in the story game by everyone—from monetary magicians to military minders.

Just find the truth in the fiction and sift the significance from the signals.

If Bernanke thinks his game of soft-money-to-hard-currency is 98% talk and 2% action, maybe the hard-power-soft-power world of strategy and international relations also runs on that ratio.

All of which brings us to an annual ritual, the Madeleine awards for the use of symbol, stunt, prop, gesture or jest in international affairs.

The prize is named after the former US Secretary of State and Ambassador to the UN, Madeleine Albright, honouring her penchant for sending diplomatic messages via her lapel brooches.

Starting with the minor awards, here is the envelope for the OOPS!, celebrating an OOPS!-I-wish-I-hadn’t-moment. The spirit of the OOPS! was elegantly expressed long ago by Boris Johnson after he was sacked as a shadow cabinet minister: ‘There are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters.’

The OOPS! usually goes to a blooper or blunder (the political definition of a blunder being someone inadvertently blurting the truth).

A certain amount of Oz provincial pride has marked this award. For the last two years it was easily won by Tony Abbott. He triumphed with his 2013 election campaign vow that he wasn’t ‘the suppository of all wisdom!’

Then he fronted up for a double OOPS! by introducing the term ‘shirtfront’ to international diplomacy. In Australian Rules football a shirtfront is when a player charges at an opponent’s chest and crashes shoulder-first into their shirt. In talking about Russia’s President, the Oz PM announced: ‘Look, I’m going to shirtfront Mr Putin. You bet you are—you bet I am.’

Putin mightn’t know much about Australian Rules, but he understands the use of gesture, gibe and threat on the international stage. Putin’s Madeleine-worthy response while attending the G20 summit in Brisbane was to have the Russian navy sailing around off Queensland—shirtfront versus ships!

Abbott went close to a third win by conferring an Oz knighthood on the Queen’s consort, Prince Philip. But that knightmare already has a prized place in the nightmare that overtook Australia’s 28th Prime Minister.

The judges were tempted to broaden our definition of international affairs and give the OOPS! to Volkswagen for a deeply disastrous and amazingly dumb bit of engineering skulduggery. In the end, though, the call was easy.

One man stood up and by his own read-my-rants demanded the OOPS! This is for you, Donald Trump. The Donald has broadened our understanding of the prize. Rather than blunder or blooper, he has perfected the Reverse OOPS! The more outrageous he gets, the stronger his candidacy.

The Reverse OOPS! follows Jack Shafer’s view that this presidential campaign teaches that truth matters in politics less than any of us ever believed: ‘the abundance of liars and bullshitters have driven us to a “post-truth era” in politics.’ Roll on the primaries to put this to the vote.

Now for a new award. When creating the Madeleines we mooted a category called the George Orwell prize for double think and chilling euphemism.

The Orwell got cut because, on reflection, it seemed the prize would naturally go each year to North Korea. In keeping with the temper of the times, we have cast off this caution as needless restraint and useless good taste. Here is the first George Orwell prize. Step forward Thailand’s military junta.

The junta euphemism that helped win the Orwell is ‘attitude adjustment’. Being shoved in a prison cell with a bag over your head is attitude adjustment. The double think is most evident in the regime’s use of lèse majesté law.

The nasty farce of lèse majesté means the junta has to respond to a private complaint and investigate the US ambassador to Bangkok for insulting the King. The ambassador’s offence? A speech criticising long prison sentences for those convicted of criticizing the King.

As Joshua Kurlantzick commented, the junta ‘cannot ignore lèse majesté allegations even if those claims appear pointless or potentially detrimental to Thailand’s strategic interests. In other words, an arch-royalist government led by a military man cannot even dictate how the lèse majesté law is utilized, a sign of Thailand’s increasingly out of control politics.’

Give the junta an Orwell.

Finally, in the minor awards, The Diana Directive on the Utility and Force of Photographs and Images. The title comes via Tony Blair who cited the Princess of Wales: ‘As Diana used to say, the picture is what counts.’ See Blair’s account of Diana on the utility and force of pics here.

The combination of flippancy and serious point in the Diana means it can applaud all the cartoonists around the world who, a year ago this month, took up the cry, ‘Je suis Charlie!’

The massacre in Paris of the journalists and cartoonists at Charlie Hebdo was a murderous assault by fanatics, an attempt to kill jokes, puns, slang, and a distinctly French understanding of satire.

Bullets were fired at that most subversive of images—the cartoon.

A magazine known for its joyous bad taste was drenched in the blood of its staff. For an agonising moment, a rag of a mag became, instead, a symbol of the right to laugh as an expression of freedom and civilisation. The Diana goes to Charlie and all cartoonists, as expressed from Canberra by David Pope’s magnificent response.

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The next column will rate the contestants and announce the winner of the seventh Madeleine Award.

ASPI suggests

This is the morning of Saturday 13th June 1970 and Queen Elizabeth II is riding her horse 'Burmese' during the Trooping of the Colour ceremony

Today marks the 14th anniversary of the devastating attacks that rocked the United States, and raised public consciousness of the threat of modern terrorism. Reflecting on the milestone, Bruce Hoffman at Politico states that just four years ago the world had terrorism ‘on the run’—but now, inadequate global responses to an entirely new brand of terrorist have led to abject failure to stem the problem. Hoffman argues that rolling ISIS back from Iraq and decreasing its regional and virtual sanctuaries is a crucial first step to countering the threat.

With no sanctuaries of their own, refugees fleeing the violence in Syria have been sent messages of solidarity and welcome from all corners of the globe. The Washington Post covered the Japanese response to the crisis, which, although lucrative (Prime Minister Abe offered US$200 million in aid to refugees displaced by the crisis earlier this year), hasn’t yet included the offer of resettlement placements. To compliment the sentiment that Europe should be doing more to welcome the exodus (see this Economist piece, for instance) the Washington Post has published a series of maps denoting countries’ demographical make-up as the reason behind their rejection or embrace of refugees.

A bit closer to home, Fairfax has republished a SMH piece from 1949 highlighting Australia’s response to the post WWII refugee crisis where we ‘didn’t stop the boats, we let them in’. Statistics referred to in the piece show that Australia, at the time, was accepting displaced people at a higher rate than any other country.

Across the Pacific, in a concerted effort to never disappoint, presidential hopeful Donald Trump has, in less than 24 hours, backtracked on his claim that the US should be making room for more Syrian refugees. In a CNN interview, Trump said that the US should be fixing its own ‘big problems’ rather than focusing on refugees. For a longer read on what’s been dubbed ‘The Donald Trump Situation’, check out Michael Tomasky’s piece for The New York Review of Books, which examines the spectacle of the Republican candidate who has survived political scandals of his own making in an almost ‘Rasputin-like’ fashion.

For a contrasting view on US foreign policy, DefenseOne has summarised Hillary Clinton’s Wednesday address at the Brookings Institute on the Iran Deal. For more details on the five pillars of her Iran strategy, and to watch Clinton deliver the address, see Brookings’ summary of the event.

With 23,226 days under her belt (or crown) as the reigning monarch of the UK and 15 Commonwealth countries, Queen Elizabeth II became Britain’s longest serving ruler on Wednesday, to the joy of monarchists worldwide. The Economist has a good graph showing the length of life before accession, reign and life after reign of all of England’s monarchs, as well as an interactive map of the British Empire’s evolution throughout history.

And finally, friendly tradition digressed to all-out warfare at the West Point campus of the United States Military Academy, when students invited to partake in the Academy’s annual pillow fight chose to not wear the required protective helmets, but rather, stuff them into pillow cases and beat their fellow classmates with their innovative weapons. For visuals on what not to do at your next sleepover, see here.

Podcasts

On 8 September, John McCarthy, Ian Hall and Meg Gurry met at Old Parliament House to debate the relationship between Delhi and Canberra, and how both government and citizens can help to improve the two countries’ links. Listen to the discussion here (1hr 26mins).

Foreign Policy’s David Rothkopf sat down with Rosa Brooks, Kori Schake and Robert Kagan to explore key aspects of the Iran Deal (33mins), and the Obama administration’s Middle Eastern foreign policy. As the second podcast released by FP, it’s certainly worth a listen.

Videos

Iran—it’s so hot right now. Martin Indyk of Brookings, who spoke at the Seminars at Steamboat in Colorado last week, summarised his stance on the Middle East’s two most prominent current issues: the JCPOA and Arab-Israeli peace (which hasn’t made the ‘in’ list). Watch the video of his speech here (1hr 16mins).

ASPI’s Natalie Sambhi and Lowy’s Merriden Varrall discuss  (28mins) the major goals of China’s leaders, what exactly is happening in the South China Sea, and how external actors should best engage with China in the latest edition of Bloggingheads.tv’s Foreign Entanglements series

Events

Canberra: A big week ahead for Canberra Indonesianists—ANU’s Indonesia Project is hosting its 2015 Indonesia Update Conference on 18-19 September, with a focus on land law in a decentralised Indonesia. If a two day conference isn’t enough for you, start off with the AIIA’s panel discussion on 17 September on the 50th anniversary of the Jakarta coup that saw the demise of the Indonesian Communist Party.

Sydney: The University of Sydney is hosting a short series of lectures on the ruins of Palmyra—former tourist magnet, current ISIS territory—in honour of slain archaeologist Khaled al-As’ad. Mark your diaries for 16 September.

Melbourne: Steven Freeland from the University of Western Sydney will be answering some prominent questions about the future of space-related technology and entrepreneurship at AIIA’s Victorian branch on 17 September. Here at The Strategist, we remain optimistic that it won’t include nuking Mars into becoming an earth-like planet—an idea recently put forward by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on Stephen Colbert’s Late Show.