Tag Archive for: DFAT

Positive agenda, not budget envy: Increasing Australia’s investment in diplomacy

It’s true that Australia is underinvesting in diplomacy given the type of world we are living in. But it’s wrongheaded to blame MPs and ministers for not simply understanding the intrinsic value of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and giving it more money. It’s just as wrongheaded to call for increases because Australia’s defence budget is growing in real terms while DFAT’s isn’t.

Graphs show DFAT’s budget essentially flatlining over the decade while the defence budget has now had four years of sustained real growth. Does this mean DFAT is being robbed and the Department of Defence rewarded?

No, and here’s why this argument will fall on deaf ears in the Treasury, at the Department of Finance and in the cabinet: DFAT is primarily a staff-based organisation, with buildings and office information and communications technology systems. In times not beset by a global pandemic, it needs to travel but its budget is driven by people costs. These rise at the rate of wage increases, which have been modest over the past few years, and will probably be flat through the recession.

Defence, in contrast, is an equipment-heavy organisation, with investment in military hardware taking 40% of its budget and operating the resulting systems and enterprises taking more than 30%. People costs are less than 30% of Defence’s budget. And the costs of the high-technology, complex systems and machines needed for advanced militaries rises faster than those of most other goods and services.

This budget driver is heightened at times of increased strategic and technological competition—like now. In addition, these military systems and platforms can only be developed and acquired through long-term projects, as seen with the multi-decade frigate and submarine programs, so long-term capital investment plans are essential. That is simply not the nature of DFAT as an organisation.

So, comparing Defence and DFAT budgets and saying it’s a travesty if one is growing and the other isn’t bogs down when you look at what the two organisations need to perform their missions.

As to the parliament or successive governments being to blame for not realising the intrinsic worth of diplomacy, this gives a free pass to DFAT’s senior leadership for not successfully advocating for the mission or funding of their department.

A rationale for this in recent commentary by former diplomat James Wise is that ‘ministers allocate resources to departments, based on their assessment of priorities’ and the Labor, Liberal and National parties ‘have lacked the political leadership to ensure that foreign policy-making and diplomacy are adequately resourced’.

That’s passive at best. The senior leadership of every department is responsible for the advice that their ministers and governments make decisions upon—including budgetary ones. Certainly, in our system of executive government, ministers decide while public servants advise. But, as the saying goes, they who write the minutes control the meeting. So, those who can provide advice must and should expect to affect the decisions made as a result—if they’re doing their jobs well.

None of this means that giving DFAT a secure and growing budget isn’t important, but not on the grounds that successive governments have dudded them or Defence got cash so they should too.

A better rationale for increased DFAT funding would be one that connects with the international environment and what diplomacy can do to advance and protect Australia’s interests.

Taking up Scott Morrison’s recognition of ‘positive globalism’ might be the right starting point. Launching the new defence policy and investment plan on 1 July, the prime minister said:

The rest of the world, and Australia, are not just bystanders to this.

It’s not just China and the United States that will determine whether our region stays on path for free and open trade, investment and cooperation that has underpinned stability and prosperity, the people-to-people relationships that bind our region together.

Japan, India, the Republic of Korea, the countries of South-East Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and the Pacific all have agency, choices to make, parts to play and of course, so does Australia.

So, Australia will be an activist power in this poorer, more dangerous and divided world, and Australia will work closely with the range of nations sketched out here. This is a foundation for investment in diplomats to work to this purpose.

Combine this with what Australian diplomats, working with an engaged prime minister, foreign minister and front bench, have achieved recently and you start to get the momentum for the investment DFAT needs. Australia led the global debate about the need for an inquiry into the Covid-19 pandemic, and, against furious opposition from the Chinese government, obtained a thumping majority of countries’ votes at the World Health Assembly in May.

The international support was so overwhelming that Beijing ended up having to voice public support for the inquiry. Diplomats were critical to articulating the need and creating partnerships that ended up in voting support at the assembly in the weeks between Marise Payne announcing the idea in April and the WHA meeting in May. Each engagement Payne and the prime minister had with counterparts was facilitated by our diplomatic machine and made possible because of their work. It’s interesting to remember that Beijing and voices in Australia scoffed at the thought of creating enough international support to give effect to the government’s call, yet that’s what happened.

Add the hugely successful consular work to get Australians back home safely from far-flung parts of the globe that DFAT officials have orchestrated (with other agencies) in recent months despite the strains due to limited spots for returnees to be quarantined—and the department’s exemplary work in getting two Australian journalists out of Beijing.

It’s clear that Morrison has moved a long way from the strident criticism of international institutions and bureaucrats given in his ‘negative globalism’ speech in October 2019. He has a confident agenda for Australian engagement in the world and our diplomats are central to this. Payne has taken his ideas up in setting out the three core roles for this work.

Instead of seeing Defence as a budget adversary, this approach can welcome the government’s strategic update and the greater military power that it’s creating for Australia in a turbulent region. That stronger military, along with the prime minister’s will to use it to ‘shape Australia’s strategic environment, deter actions against Australia’s interests and respond with credible military force, when required’ gives a new and powerful platform to our diplomats.

So, the time is right for Australian diplomacy to advance our positive national agenda and to demonstrate to this government and those to follow why investment in diplomacy is one of the best decisions they will make.

Happy fourth birthday, Pacific step-up

On Wednesday, Australia’s South Pacific ‘step-up’ reaches its fourth birthday as an ambitious work in progress.

History and geography command commitment. Commitment generates cash. Cash is as vital as vision because neighbourhood needs press. Strategy begets kit and defence engagement. And the new bit galvanising Canberra: China challenges Australia’s traditional place as the pre-eminent South Pacific power.

The step-up was born on 9 September 2016 at the 47th Pacific Islands Forum, in Micronesia, when Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced a ‘step-change’ in relations with the islands.

Political language depicts, defines and directs, and much of Canberra didn’t like the ‘change’ part of Turnbull’s step-change. Change suggests a break with the past or even past failure.

Rather than change, we’d do more of what we’d been doing and do it better. Turnbull’s step-change was christened the ‘step-up’. New Zealand soon joined  with a South Pacific ‘reset’.

The origin story from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade emphasises continuity, not change. Since decolonisation, DFAT says, Australia has had ‘over half a century of sustained engagement, responding to the region’s priorities’, because of our ‘abiding interest in the sovereignty, stability, security and prosperity of our region’.

The policy rests on those two legs: the South Pacific’s needs and Australia’s abiding interests. We act not just because we should but because we must.

In his memoir, Turnbull muses: ‘Australian leaders have often called the Pacific “our backyard”. That’s not the right term: it suggests we own it and take it for granted. The Pacific rather is our neighbourhood, and while vast, it’s one in which we have special responsibilities and opportunities.’

The step-up was a key objective of the 2017 foreign affairs white paper. Launching the document, Turnbull talked of ‘an irreversible and permanent step-up in our commitment’ to the South Pacific.

When Scott Morrison took over as prime minister, he embraced ‘a new chapter in relations with our Pacific family’ in a speech to troops at Queensland’s Lavarack Barracks in November 2018: ‘This is our patch. This is our part of the world. This is where we have special responsibilities. We always have, we always will. We have their back, and they have ours. We are more than partners by choice. We are connected as members of a Pacific family.’

Some distrust the emotion and ambition of Morrison’s ‘Pacific family’. I reckon it’s goddamn genius, not least because family reflects his life and faith.

Through their church, Morrison’s family has made many trips to the South Pacific. Personal experience of normal Pacific life makes Australia’s 30th prime minister somewhat unique, as a fine Oz scribe, Mary-Louise O’Callaghan, explains: ‘Morrison is likely the first prime minister since Federation to bring to the office such personal insight and real affinity for our island neighbours. When Scott Morrison speaks of the Pacific being family he actually means it.’

Turnbull and Morrison offer versions of the step-up as an expression of Australia’s interests, influence and values. Turnbull does traditional duty by pointing to opportunities and responsibilities. Morrison accepts that strategic base, then reaches to shared beliefs—the conversation must be more than transactional.

The step-up has bipartisan consensus. Labor claims continuity by pointing to the Rudd government’s ‘new era of cooperation’, the Port Moresby declaration and the Pacific partnerships for development.

Invoking family and history is part answer to island cynicism that the step-up is just Canberra panicking about China—although the China panic has concentrated minds wonderfully in many dimensions of Oz policy.

A panicked Canberra pushed Beijing aside to build a fibre-optic cable from Honiara to Sydney, and then committed to build a similar cable network around Papua New Guinea.

Australia wanted to ensure, Turnbull writes, ‘that critical communications infrastructure didn’t fall under the control of China or any other country whose interests may not always be aligned with our own, let alone the values of Pacific island nations’.

There’s much else Australia doesn’t want to fall under China’s sway.

Responses range from the creation of the Office of the Pacific to the $2 billion infrastructure facility for the South Pacific and Timor-Leste.

The 2020 defence strategic update mentions the ‘step-up’ seven times (the same number of times it names China). The step-up aligns with the update’s stress on Australia shaping its strategic environment: ‘Australia must be an active and assertive advocate for stability, security and sovereignty in our immediate region.’

Kevin Rudd says the coalition under Tony Abbott, and then Turnbull and Morrison, ‘opened the door’ to Chinese influence in the South Pacific by slashing aid and retreating on climate change action.

Australia’s international aid budget has, indeed, suffered what the Lowy Institute’s Jonathon Pryke calls a ‘dramatic contraction’. Stephen Howes of the Australian National University dubs our aid policy ‘incoherent’ and points to an ‘unprecedented divergence’ between spending on defence and aid.

Canberra hasn’t quite lost sight of the truth—best deployed against hard heads and cynical ‘realists’—that aid is the soft end of the defence budget.

South Pacific aid was quarantined by not being savaged. Australia can still proclaim itself the top aid partner in the islands. The dollar figure for the islands trends up: $1.1 billion in 2017–18, $1.3 billion in 2018–19, $1.4 billion in 2019–20.

On origins and parentage on this fourth anniversary, note the claim by the ebullient former defence minister Christopher Pyne: ‘I created the Pacific Step-up to support Australia’s strategic position in the South Pacific.’

Pyne says the comprehensive policy is more than any other country has committed to the region. He offers this conclusion about what’s changed in Canberra’s mindset on the islands: ‘The days where Australian government policy appeared to rely on the adage “let virtue be its own reward” were over. We were stepping up and stepping out!’

Using the success-has-many-fathers measure, Canberra thinks and hopes and trusts and prays that the step-up is working. Happy birthday!

Expanding Australia’s diplomatic toolkit for a changing strategic environment

The Australian government’s 2020 defence strategic update provides opportunities to strengthen our role in the Indo-Pacific and elevates the importance of our relationships with regional nations. Navigating the shifting strategic landscape in the region will require effective interaction with these nations as we pivot away from Asia’s economic giant, China.

Trust and confidence are at a premium and Australia must redouble its efforts to engage meaningfully in the region.

China’s ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy has worked in Australia’s favour. Its undiplomatic handling of the pandemic and willingness to use the Covid-19 crisis to seek strategic advantage have revealed the Chinese Communist Party’s true nature.

The shifting sentiment resulting from Beijing’s coercive and belligerent behaviour has opened a window of opportunity for Australia and like-minded nations to exercise collective influence to balance China’s growth with regional security imperatives. Working more closely with countries such as Japan, Vietnam, India and Indonesia will strengthen trust and confidence to influence security outcomes in our respective national interests.

The mainstay of such regional management is, of course, formal diplomatic endeavour, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s 2017 foreign policy white paper provides an excellent blueprint for that work. However, surging and sustaining our diplomatic presence is costly and takes time—time that has evaporated with the urgency to upgrade our strategic strike and defensive capabilities.

Second-track, or ‘non-official’, diplomacy is an inexpensive, remarkably effective and enduring method of engagement practised by governments, the education and commercial sectors, independent think tanks and non-government organisations. Informal contact between national representatives below official level isn’t a new idea, but it could be more effectively implemented.

Australia’s use of second-track diplomacy has been ad hoc and would benefit from refinement, especially since DFAT has recently announced reductions to its regional diplomatic footprint.

The end result of diplomatic efforts is usually an agreement that articulates the aims and limits of an arrangement or venture. But we need to do more than just capture a relationship’s operating parameters. This clinical, legalistic and typically Western approach isn’t necessarily preferred by Indo-Pacific cultures and may not match the friendship bonds that are highly valued in the region.

Formal diplomacy and dialogue can build valuable relationships when the participants are active, but connections attenuate as officials change jobs or retire.

Language and cultural barriers often frustrate the development of nation-to-nation relationships. Personal connections build trust that, over time, carries much weight in nations’ decisions. That’s a key goal of programs like the New Colombo Plan. The plan’s student-focused initiatives will take time—beyond the current window of opportunity—to mature.

Gaps in the foreign policy framework can be filled quickly by regular second-track engagements. Genuine friendships—beyond the transient touch points of formal diplomacy—can overcome difficult or sensitive bilateral issues not suited to official mechanisms.

A regularised second-track system could smooth undulations that prolong negotiations or slow their momentum. However, it should not replace the work of officials or dictate policy settings. Both approaches are valuable, and they’re more effective if combined.

The trust built through more personal second-track engagements keeps communication channels open when formal diplomacy falters. This addition to our soft-power toolkit would signal a deeper, more meaningful effort by Australia as a partner in regional development.

It will be particularly important as officials explain Australia’s military capability expansion, especially while nations watch Beijing’s reaction, some with more concern than others.

Care must be taken to avoid pre-empting policy development or sending mixed messages, and that can be done by using the expertise of former diplomats and officials whose networks, friendships, knowledge and experience would otherwise be lost. The minimal expense should be calculated against the costs of diplomatic failures.

Access and influence are always important—and vital in a crisis. We need to be agile, especially when doors have closed, which happens more often than is publicly acknowledged, and invariably at critical moments. That’s when the real but hidden value of friendship is realised.

A second-track approach supports Australia’s regional outreach by keeping doors open and dialogue happening. It’s an investment in regional stability.

Informal arrangements should nest within a framework overseen by a proper authority. They’d be best implemented under DFAT’s direction, though departments could manage a decentralised version. There should be lateral reach across departments pursuing dialogue with counterparts under the guidance of the foreign policy white paper and other departmental objectives. Discussions should address agenda items outside the scope of formal treatment by officials. Topics could include future interests that aren’t yet a priority, difficult matters that for the time being are best avoided by officials, or crisis matters when normal channels have been interrupted or closed.

Joint reporting to parent governments would enhance transparency and build further confidence in relationships.

The structure need not be complex. An example is the Australia–Indonesia Defence Alumni Association (Ikahan) and its senior advisers group established at the instigation of the current governor-general when he was Australian Defence Force chief. General David Hurley wanted to strengthen ties between the ADF and the Indonesian military—the TNI—and the broader bilateral relationship.

Ikahan has been an outstanding success in both regards. The advisory group is co-chaired by a former Australian army chief, Lieutenant General Peter Leahy, and a former assistant for intelligence to the TNI chief. Its membership includes former high-level national security officials who have developed deep trust and personal relationships over time. Regular in-person and virtual meetings discuss the ‘unusual as business’, addressing diverse concerns important to their governments. This simple but effective model could be emulated by other departments, and with other key nations.

Now is the moment for Australia to strengthen its relationships through increased dialogue with regional friends. Bookending our diplomacy with a more integrated second-track system would complement official efforts and support the formal messaging in our changed strategic situation.

Importantly, informal dialogue will provide advance warning of impending hazards in regional relationships and smooth any ructions that could arise as the new security equilibrium is formed. This relatively small investment is key to our future stability and security. Working on multiple levels with friends has never been more important to our respective national interests.

Six inquiries on Australia’s South Pacific step-up

Australia is doing a lot of thinking about what steps to take in the South Pacific.

How high does the ‘Pacific step-up’ have to go? How many different steps? Step style? Step hierarchy? How to avoid oversteps or missteps or just stepping in it? Can the step-up hit its stride?

Canberra hums. Six step-flavoured reviews and inquiries are afoot. Yep, six! Buzz, buzz, buzzzz …

The Defence Department review of defence strategy and capabilities is almost complete. ASPI’s Michael Shoebridge judges that ‘the strategic assessment has to be that China’s power and military reach have grown faster than expected, including its ability to reach into and operate in Australia’s near region’. In the ways of Defence, the demands of Oz geography mean the South Pacific is central to the strategic pondering.

Across the lake from Defence, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is conducting its inquiry on a ‘new international development policy’ to support ‘security, stability, prosperity and resilience in the Indo-Pacific’. As with defence, Pacific calculations are crucial in foreign policy; the islands will continue to get the biggest share of Oz aid.

Just up the hill from DFAT, in the building with the big flag, parliament’s Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade is holding four separate step-up inquiries:

  • Australia’s defence relationships with Pacific island nations—looking at Defence’s activities; the ‘needs, requests and feedback’ from the islands; the level of coordination between Defence and the rest of Canberra; the chances for cooperation with ‘other nations seeking to invest and engage in the South West Pacific’.
  • Activating greater trade and investment with Pacific islands—focusing on the potential of the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) Plus; the chances and barriers for ‘trade, investment, aid for trade and employment links’; ‘the views, norms and cultural practices’ on trade and investment in Australia and the islands and ‘how differences can be accommodated’.
  • Human rights of women and girls in the Pacific—covering the role of island civil-society groups in gender equality and responding to domestic, family and sexual violence; the key figures and groups which advance the human rights of women and girls in the Pacific and how Australia can help.
  • Strengthening Australia’s relationships with countries in the Pacific—examining the implementation of Australia’s step-up as a whole-of­-government effort; the prospects for broadening non-government and community-based linkages to leverage the Pacific diaspora; measures to ensure the step-up reflects ‘the priority needs of the governments and people of Pacific island countries’.

Australia’s promise to take ‘our partnerships with the Pacific to a new level’ prompts valid questions from the islands, based on our record.

The attention Australia gives the South Pacific has waxed and waned, belying our deep and abiding interests. A while back (2003), I described this cycle of Pacific forgetfulness and rediscovery—attention not matching interests—as a form of recurring amnesia about what we do and want in the Pacific.

We might be at the high point of another cycle. Or maybe Australia can, as it promises, lock in a ‘new level’ of partnership. The islands ask whether Canberra is on the level and what level it can go to, and whether it can maintain this level of enthusiasm. Six inquiries will provide a report card and a prognosis.

In her assessment of the state of the step-up, Tess Newton Cain says the quantity of Australia’s ‘showing up’ in the region has increased dramatically since November 2017, when the step-up got going. The plan is ‘embedded in political and bureaucratic rhetoric’, she writes, and is a key element of the government’s foreign policy. The 28 components of the step-up she lists constitute an ambitious to-do list.

Newton Cain points to the need for quality to go with the quantity, to get big steps not silly stumbles. She reports that the South Pacific has ‘a degree of healthy scepticism as to whether Australian policy makers can sustain this level of policy focus, let alone the financial commitments that may be required’.

A truth about inquiries is that while they wear an outward-looking face, much of the true focus is inward, staring at the eternal Canberra issues. The external question is about what’s to be done; the internal issues are who gets the power and who wins the money.

The parliamentary inquiries will quickly come to the fault line that separates official Canberra from the academics, aid groups and NGOs that work in the Pacific. The bureaucrat characterisation sees responsibility and authority on one side, facing enthusiasts, activists and narrow specialists. The academics characterise it as those with knowledge trying to educate those with cash but no clue.

The ABC’s former Pacific affairs reporter, Stephen Dziedzic, has done a fine piece on the fault line. It’s always useful when a good journo puts on the sociologist/anthropologist hat to analyse the tribes they’re reporting on. Dziedzic nails it with a description of a robust discussion that too often becomes, ‘Pacific good, Australia bad.’

Climate change policy is where the strongest blows are exchanged. Then things get personal.

As Dziedzic reports, many Australian diplomats in the Pacific believe academics are ‘naive, ideologically rigid, and utterly indifferent to Australia’s national interest’. Officials grouch that they’re accused of ‘paternalism or cultural insensitivity’ by a group with a hopelessly romanticised view of traditional cultures, ‘too quick to ignore the way corruption and patronage networks cripple local economies’.

Dziedzic summarises what academics think about their official counterparts:

Australian diplomats (and contractors) are often unforgivably ignorant of local conventions and display a patronising sense of superiority towards Pacific leaders and officials. They are quick to dismiss Pacific island expertise and sometimes impose solutions hopelessly mismatched to needs on the ground.

Diplomats (and Australian politicians) often view Pacific island nations as pieces in a grand geopolitical game of chess. This denies the agency of Pacific Island countries and is deeply counter-productive.

Lots there to step over and step up to. Many steps still to come.

Has combining flag and trade served Canberra well?

At least five things prompt me to write this piece. First, as the defence adviser at the Indian high commission in Canberra from 2005 to 2008, I was initially impressed by the single Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Exports were booming and Australia seemed to be perfectly happy to be the quarry for China’s hunger for resources.

Second, while I was in the midst of that tenure, the media were agog with reports about a ‘thousand spies’ and the influence Beijing seemed to have already built up through some sympathetic politicians across the spectrum of parties and factions. (Paul Monk’s book Thunder from the silent zone: rethinking China appeared in 2005 when this anxiety was just beginning to take hold.)

Third, as a seaman, I’m well aware of the symbiotic relationship between flag and trade and the links between prosperity and security. Undoubtedly, many seamen in Australia are as well aware, and a corollary to the third reason is that the 2019 Goldrick Seminar held by the Australian Naval Institute last month was themed ‘Maritime trade and its implications for Australia’s defence’.

Fourth, in recent months, there has been unprecedented concern in Australia, even in places that were in strong denial in the 2000s, about Chinese penetration into the very structure and sinews of the lucky country. And lastly, the architect of the merger in 1987 and prime minister of a very maritime nation, Bob Hawke, crossed the bar a few months ago.

Is it now time for a rethink of the merging of ‘flag and trade’ into one department? There’s little debate within Australia recommending a split, but, as an empathetic observer, to me it’s a move worth considering.

In a perception that grew stronger over the years, I felt that the single-roof approach for foreign affairs and trade might ultimately turn out to be suboptimal for Australia. Hopes for greater coherence between the two policy areas were not misplaced in 1987 when the merger happened. Efficiency in administration makes sense. However, as Canadian scholar Rachel Calleja says—in the context of foreign aid programs—efficiency doesn’t automatically lead to effectiveness of the purposes of statecraft.

To be fair, there are some matters that fall into the grey zone. Did Australian exports, and consequent prosperity, go up because of the merger, or was it mainly due to the rising tide of economic growth in much of Asia and major policy changes, especially in the billion-plus nation of China? And would the demand for what Australia mined or pumped in increasing volumes through the 1990s and until recent years have been less if the departments had stayed separate?

Arguing that the US, with its distinct departments of State and Commerce, formed a deeper trading relationship with China is also fair. However, the argument perhaps underscores that a merger isn’t essential and that, at the same time, security can’t be made effectively subordinate to prosperity no matter how sweet the sound of cash registers may be. That quandary could exist in any system, particularly if the political leadership is attuned to the shorter term and corporate lobbying is highly effective.

However, what separation may provide is a higher level of good friction between departments in making decisions. Each department would need to look at issues more carefully, argue more convincingly for its position, and then come to a resolution. The two-roof process isn’t easy or smooth, and perhaps it’s not as quick as when a single department head and a single minister are the key deciders. Nonetheless, it’s perfectly possible that coordination would be efficient enough with separate departments to enable policy decision-making and execution and monitoring of consequences to be done effectively.

But it is the nature of commerce and business that quarterly and annual bottom lines dominate rather than the longer-term needs of a nation. This is not to say that mergers of other departments are not necessary. In matters of home affairs, for example, Canberra and New Delhi have each done a great deal that has helped efficiency and increased effectiveness.

During my posting, I got a clear sense that those primarily responsible for ensuring security seemed to be in the Australian Defence Force, in the Department of Defence, in some think tanks and in agencies like ASIO.

Elsewhere in the government, and especially in DFAT, there seemed to be a degree of exuberance about continued prosperity and a measured dismissal of voices warning of China’s deepening penetration into almost everything Australian that mattered. Currently, unease and anxiety are very high and many of the voices that one heard then are being listened to more carefully now (among them are signatories to the second open letter by China scholars in response to the first).

A difficult poser, therefore, is this: would Canberra’s concerns, Beijing’s unhappiness about curbs being imposed, and awareness of Chinese inroads be less if flag and trade were separate? Would a separation (as between the Department of Defence and DFAT) of foreign affairs from trade have enabled more careful consideration of the ‘thunder from the silent zone’ or the ‘silent invasion’ (from Clive Hamilton’s book title) that some agencies were hearing then?

Or, is it when the voices get louder, the evidence more worrying, the demand for resources weaker, and Chinese actions and protests more strident that the matter comes into sharper focus? What degree of worry does it take for security to be given more weight than prosperity? And did DFAT’s focus on resources contribute to Australia’s taking its eyes off the ball that Beijing has proved so effective at punting? Perhaps this is something to think about a bit differently …

An agenda for Australia’s lead cyber negotiator

Together with 24 other states, Australia will serve on the new UN Group of Governmental Experts (UN GGE) on ‘developments in the field of information and telecommunications in the context of international security’. Following the adoption of UN General Assembly resolution 73/266 in December last year, Canberra kicked off a campaign kicked to get selected for this pre-eminent group.

Australia was holding the right cards. With the establishment of the position of ambassador for cyber affairs in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the launch of an ambitious international cyber engagement strategy in 2017, Australia could present itself as a global or at least a regional leader. Assertive high-profile attributions, the 5G decision, support to ASEAN and substantial investments in capacity building in Southeast Asia and the Pacific provided support for that claim.

The new UN GGE was set up in conjunction with a parallel—if not competing—group: an open-ended working group (OEWG) on ‘developments in the field of ICTs in the context of international security’.

The two groups are both mandated ‘to develop rules, norms and principles of responsible behaviour of states in cyberspace’. Both are also to focus on implementing non-binding agreements and the examining the application of international law to states using ICTs. Differences over presumed membership and the expected ‘spirit of the discussions’ are more subtly phrased, but are fundamental to the negotiation process.

The OEWG suggests a reconsideration of agreements made in reports of previous UN GGEs and a consideration of ‘regular dialogue … under the auspices of the United Nations’. That’s diametrically opposed to positions held by states such as the US, EU member states and Australia. Instead, this group wants to build on ‘the existing consensus’ and ensure that stability in cyberspace is a community-wide effort involving industry, the technology sector and civil society—rather than a UN-centric, and therefore state-centric, process.

The OEWG claims to be ‘more democratic, inclusive and transparent’ than the UN GGE, inviting any interested state to join it. While the UN GGE has capped participants at 25 experts, their states are geographically representative of the global community. It’s also the sixth in a series, while the OEWG starts from scratch.

The UN General Assembly’s adoption of the UN GGE outcome reports in 2010, 2013 and 2015 demonstrated an emerging consensus on what the global community of states deemed acceptable and unacceptable behaviour in cyberspace and on which so-called confidence-building measures would help minimise risks of miscalculation and misperceptions. It was also agreed that international law applies in cyberspace in the same way that it does in the physical world.

Much changed between 2015 and 2019.

Negotiations in the last UN GGE, which met between 2016 and 2017, broke down. Although the group reportedly managed to make progress on clarifying previous agreements, no common ground was found for a more detailed interpretation of how the principles in the UN Charter on the use of force and in international humanitarian law apply in the cyber context, nor was agreement reached on a right to apply countermeasures in situations below the threshold for the use of force.

Simultaneously, a series of state-sponsored incidents forced nations to take a much stronger, if not confrontational, stance towards perceived adversaries. Russia’s cyber-enabled interference in the 2016 US presidential election was a clear watershed, followed by the attribution by NATO, EU member states and Australia of the NotPetya virus to Russia; the attribution of the WannaCry malware to North Korea; and the exclusion of Huawei (and others) from the 5G markets in Australia and the US.

In these circumstances, when the current rules-based model is challenged, when military dominance is less effective and when others seem to have equal levels of pioneering zeal, diplomacy is hard. We’ll need some excellent diplomatic skills to overcome the ideological stand-off and define a rules-based system in cyberspace that accommodates the interests of the global community. The good news is that the past few years have produced an expanding corps of dedicated cyber ambassadors.

The American and Russian experts have been on the campaign trail for over 15 years. That brings the risk of formal positions and personal emotions getting blurred and entrenched, as can be observed in a statement by Michele Markoff (US) and an article by Andrei Krutskikh (Russia). It’s likely to be up to the others—presumably even member states outside of the P5—to build bridges and potentially foster a breakthrough.

Here Australia is in a unique position. The various states in the Indo-Pacific region will expect to be represented by Australia, together with Singapore and Indonesia. That comes with opportunities (since the region has been underrepresented thus far) and with responsibilities to a wider group of constituencies for which Australia will be the de facto representative.

What does this mean for Australia’s negotiation agenda?

As a member of the Five Eyes community, and given Canberra’s assertive posture in 2018, Australia needs to form sophisticated opinions about additional rules that constrain irresponsible state actions in cyberspace in situations of war and of international conflict and right below the threshold for the use of force. This includes debates about effective deterrence and retaliation against malicious behaviour.

In Southeast Asia, the interests of most states tend to concentrate on a rules-based environment that facilitates developing digital infrastructure, fighting transnational cybercrime and preventing ICT-enabled disinformation campaigns. Here the challenge will be to accommodate demands for sovereign rights in cyberspace while keeping these states aligned with the principle of a free and open internet.

The interests of the Pacific states are more mundane. As part of the Pacific ‘step-up’, which includes a cybersecurity component, Australia will have to look for measures that ensure that digital rookie states won’t fall prey to ICT-enabled crime, espionage and other forms of disruption. Their digital transformation is still regarded as a key enabler for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

Australia’s lead negotiator needs to play at multiple chessboards, each presenting a unique sociopolitical and development context. In stormy weather, she needs to walk a tightrope, keep her ears open to the concerns of Australia’s multiple constituencies, and find out more about the ulterior motivations of her fellow negotiators (and their constituencies) at the table.

Taking Australian diplomacy digital

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has come a long way in a short time in its embrace of digital tools and technology. DFAT, and most of our embassies around the world, now have a significant social media presence, often across several platforms. There has been an explosion of Twitter feeds, Facebook pages, Instagram accounts, and even blogs and YouTube channels, adding colour to what was (and remains) a rather lifeless website-only presence. In this, DFAT has been helped by political leaders who have embraced these tools as a means of modern-day communication.

However, in the rush to embrace digital media, there’s a danger that some of the bigger questions have gone begging, and that ends have been confused with means. Doing digital diplomacy well not only requires having the requisite digital platforms—it entails using them strategically and effectively to advance a diplomatic agenda. This is where DFAT is struggling: it has gone digital, but it isn’t yet doing digital diplomacy.

Having a large number of social media accounts and a growing crop of followers or friends isn’t sufficient. The test of success is whether those factors are being properly utilised to bring Australian diplomacy from the analogue into the digital age.

As I explain in an ASPI International Cyber Policy Centre report released today, the challenge is to fully utilise these platforms to conduct DFAT’s core business, which is diplomacy. And here, there’s still quite some way to go. There’s not yet a wholesale recognition and appreciation of how the advocacy landscape has changed. As a result, and with a few stand-out exceptions, most of DFAT’s digital channels suffer from the same three ailments.

First, there’s too much use of new media channels to transmit old media content. Digital media are a different format; they speak to a different audience and require different—and more engaging— content. Good digital content is pithy, impactful and tailored, but too little of DFAT’s digital content meets that test. Using new media channels to transmit old media content (press releases and the like) ruins both.

Second, there’s a pronounced tendency for DFAT’s digital platforms to duck the difficult issues. There’s a place for building brand Australia, promoting tourism and spruiking soft news stories about Australia on digital platforms, but public and cultural diplomacy can’t be the sum total of our digital effort, or else we risk being (in the words of one insightful commentator) ‘all gums, no teeth’. Tempting as it is, there’s no point in running dead or lying low when a controversial issue is unfolding. This is exactly when digital platforms come to the fore and the credibility of your digital presence is tested.

Too often, when a storm of controversy is raging all around them, DFAT’s digital channels bury their heads in the sand, go radio-silent, or promulgate the Panglossian fiction that all is well. If Australian nationals are set to be executed in a foreign country, or there are suggestions that the Chinese are building a military base in the southwest Pacific, or if a candidate for the Philippines presidency jokes about the sexual assault and murder of an Australian missionary, then we should expect that the relevant Australian digital diplomatic platform will have something worthwhile to say about it—to articulate our views and interests on an important issue (our ambassador in Manila did—rightly—condemn this last incident at the time on social media). Likewise for major world events.

The message must obviously reflect diplomatic realities, but to say nothing in such scenarios is simply not credible. It also lacks a prized trait of the digital age—authenticity—and so diminishes the value of the platform and treats readers as fools.

DFAT needs to start treating digital diplomacy as core tradecraft, rather than optional add-on. It should provide compulsory digital training for all outgoing heads of mission and encourage healthy internal competition and innovation. It should pilot more sophisticated data analytics tools and integrate digital tools into regular diplomatic campaigns. It should develop and pilot a new stream of diplomatic reporting that’s punchier and timelier, and reaches a broader audience on hand-held devices.

DFAT should create new positions of ambassador to Silicon Valley and ambassador to the Chinese tech giants based in Beijing. It should experiment more with ‘pop-up’ diplomatic posts, pilot one-person posts and encourage innovation and experimentation in the conduct of digital diplomacy, conceiving of embassies as hubs and connectors for a broad set of interactions.

Finally, DFAT needs to adopt some of the nimbleness and agility of the tech world in how it conducts Australia’s external policy. Failure to do so means the field is left to others.

Australia’s foreign policy: burying the myth

The Turnbull government’s foreign-policy white paper is due any day, and it’s a fair bet it will not recommend what is fashionably called an ‘independent foreign policy’. That is bound to upset many intellectuals, former diplomats and Greens politicians, who continue to believe that Australia, as Paul Keating puts it, is ‘the Uriah Heep of this world dragging along behind [the US]’. A new magazine called Australian Foreign Affairs (Black Inc. Books) premieres this week with articles supporting an ‘independent foreign policy’.

We ought to put to rest the myth that Australia doesn’t have an ‘independent’ foreign policy. Indeed, since Federation in 1901, we have been a proud, independent nation with a distinct sense of our own values, traditions and interests, some of which have been sharply different to America’s and Britain’s.

To be sure, the need for ‘great and powerful friends’, as Robert Menzies said, is deeply embedded in the Australian psyche. From our birth as a nation-state, we have always sought a close association with a great power with which we share values and interests. For the first decades of Australia’s existence, a declining but still formidable Britain filled that role. Then for a decade or so—in the 1940s and 1950s—it was shared by Britain and America. For the past six decades, it has been performed by the US alone. Australia is also the only nation to have joined the Americans in the foxhole in every major military intervention in the past century. All true.

Yet that doesn’t mean Australia has been a lickspittle of London or Washington. Nor does it mean there have been constraints on our nation’s sovereignty or our ability to make our own way in the world. Just think how Australia expressed its independence within and sometimes without the empire in the first decades of the 20th century.

As the distinguished diplomatic historian Neville Meaney has shown in his magisterial history of Australian defence and foreign policy from 1901 to 1923, Australian leaders clashed with their counterparts in Whitehall when they felt that our nation’s distinctive Pacific interests, especially in relation to Japan, weren’t understood or appreciated in London. And they did that before the formal creation of an external affairs department in the mid-1930s.

Those who persist with the myth that our political leaders have never really demonstrated independence on the global stage have studied little history. Examples abound in the first half of the 20th century: Alfred Deakin’s skirting of the British colonial office to get the Great White Fleet to Australia; Menzies’ appointment of the first Australian ambassadors abroad, and his decision to delay sending Diggers to the Middle East at the outbreak of World War II; and John Curtin’s arguments with Winston Churchill over Australian troops.

Even during the Cold War, Canberra didn’t always agree with Washington. Think of Canberra’s opposition to Indonesia’s annexation of West Papua while John F. Kennedy supported the ultra-radical, anti-Western Sukarno. Or the Whitlam ministers’ strident denunciations of Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger. Or the Hawke government’s withdrawal from participation in MX missile tests in Australia.

In more recent times, it’s implausible to argue that Canberra has been an American sycophant. Under Tony Abbott, much to the angst of Washington, Australia joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank. His government also went to great lengths to dismiss the Pentagon’s claims that the US would send B-1 bombers to northern Australia. Since 2014, Canberra has invited Chinese soldiers to conduct joint trilateral military exercises with the US.

Under Malcolm Turnbull, Australia rejected the US-backed Japanese submarines bid. He didn’t keep Washington in the loop about his government’s decision to allow a PLA-linked Chinese company to lease the Port of Darwin. Nor has he supported the Obama and Trump administrations’ freedom-of-navigation operations with follow-up patrols in territorial waters claimed by Beijing in the South China Sea.

Those who issue a clarion call for Australia to have an independent foreign policy usually mean we should have a different foreign policy. As Peter Varghese, the former head of the Office of National Assessments and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, has observed: ‘You measure independence by whether or not your framework for thinking and acting follows your own informed judgment of your national interest. In many cases, that will mean we side with the United States; in some cases, it will lead you not to side with the United States.’ It’s appropriate to debate whether we have the right or wrong policy with respect to Washington. But to insist that our foreign policy is not independent is misguided.

Which brings us back to the forthcoming foreign-policy white paper. Since the shock US election result nearly a year ago, anti-Trump sentiment is being used to undermine the US alliance. We are entitled to feel scant respect for Donald Trump, but we shouldn’t abandon our respect and affection for the country he represents. After all, the alliance remains the cornerstone of our security policy. Advantages include favourable access to US intelligence, defence and technology. Only the US possesses the power decisively to influence the peace of the region.

The key to understanding Australia’s place in the world is to strip aside the desire for an independent foreign policy and recognise that the relationship with our most important security ally rests, as relations between states always do, upon perceptions of national interest.

The power of a public servant: Dennis Richardson

Image courtesy of Flickr user Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Like the World War One 9.2-inch siege howitzer, Dennis Richardson has been a mobile weapon, deployed across many fields of battle, able to deliver a lot of ordnance with maximum elevation in a single shot.

The siege howitzer, a counter-battery artillery piece, fired a high-explosive shell weighing 290 lbs (130 kg). A Dennis diatribe also detonated with devastating effect.

Richardson retires next week after 48 years in the public service. Malcolm Turnbull describes it as ‘a long and distinguished career’, making ‘a significant contribution to Australia’s national security and foreign policy’.

The record glitters: Secretary of Defence (2012–16), Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2010–2012), Australia’s US Ambassador (2005–10), Director-General of ASIO (1996–2005), and Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Bob Hawke (1990–91).

Richardson is a well-rounded public servant, entering Foreign Affairs as part of the famous 1969 intake of diplomatic cadets. Unlike the other ’69-ers, Richardson didn’t define himself with a ‘DFAT’ persona, leaving in 1986 to join the Immigration Department because he saw it as a fascinating part of the bureaucracy, and then later the Prime Minister’s Department.

Soon after he was appointed to run Defence, I wrote a couple of columns noting that Richardson had joined Arthur Tange as the only public servant to have headed both Defence and Foreign Affairs. A great judge of Canberra big beasts, Philip Flood, commented that Tange is one of the three top public servants of the 20th century, while Richardson is one of the three top public servants of recent decades. Another fine judge, Max Moore-Wilton, said Tange was an old-school elitist while Richardson exemplifies the modern mandarin, willing to carry out a minister’s decision even if he’d argued vehemently against it.

Richardson could channel one important bit of the Tange mentality: in both Foreign and Defence, he served at his own pleasure as well as the PM’s pleasure. The big axe that now hangs permanently above the head of every Secretary in Canberra held no real threat for Richardson in his final decade at the top.

In Defence, Richardson said his goal was a ‘very strong philosophy to make Defence more of a unitary state rather than a federation, and a loose federation at that’.

The Defence Secretary obviously looms large, not least because of considerable statutory powers, especially over money. Yet even Richardson would admit that the military side of the Defence diarchy has a standing with ministers that he couldn’t match. It’s more than just the mystique of the slouch hat. Politicians have changed the power settings—the relative clout of the Secretary has declined considerably from the highpoint achieved by Tange. Any Defence Secretary’s ability to faze or out-face the minister has declined as sharply as his ability to dominate the military leadership.

The Richardson style was on full display when he fronted Senate Estimates. He was correct and cordial, always direct, never deferential. Senators got what Richardson wanted to give ‘em—usually with plenty of detail.

Another style note, to file under dress code and power costumes. Richardson embraced a fashion which only arrived in Canberra’s top ranks this decade—wearing a suit without a tie. The tieless look is the biggest fashion shift for Canberra blokes since Paul Keating made the double-breasted jacket the power uniform of choice. Plenty of white-shirt-with-tie-Secretaries still abound, but Dennis dispensing with the tie is a style message that mattered—especially amid the tribal hierarchies of Defence.

Richardson’s public service philosophy is set out in this speech he gave to the Institute of Public Affairs. These are the key points:

  • In a crisis, you always go to it, never stand back. Always head for the source of the trouble, don’t skirt the edges.
  • Confront the immediate crisis; then have the discipline to deal with the next issue and give it complete focus without being distracted by what went before.
  • Create an environment where people feel able to raise the most sensitive things with you.
  • Overcome the temptation to assume that you can regulate your way to perfection. More often than not when things go wrong, it’s a result of human error rather than systemic failure.

Defence will miss the dynamism, not the Dennis diatribes. Senior Defence types tried to ‘do’ Dennis in strength, or at least enter his office in pairs, to lay down covering fire and have the numbers to carry away the wounded.

A Richardson overview—the geostrategic bones of the 2016 White Paper in a quick read—is his 2015 Blamey Oration. The US–China is the central relationship: how does Australia position itself when it’s ‘friends with both, allies with one’? And there’s a classic, dry Richardson barb directed at China’s South China Sea sand castle creation: ‘The speed and scale of China’s land reclamation on disputed reefs and other features does raise the question of intent and purpose; it is legitimate to ask the purpose of the land reclamation—tourism appears unlikely.’

For a Richardson summation as he leaves, here’s his speech in March to APSI’s State of the Region Masterclass, arguing that one of many things Donald Trump will demand is that Australians who believe in the ‘importance and benefits of the alliance’ are going to have to work harder.

In retirement Dennis Richardson will devote himself to argument, wine, his beloved Canberra Raiders and being Patron of the RSPCA. The Raiders and the RSPCA give you two Richardson dimensions as a mandarin with Oz characteristics: the love of (sporting) excellence and the feel for the underdog.

Big Oz bets on Asia (part one)

Image courtesy of Pixabay user blickpixel.

The Foreign Policy White Paper to be produced this year must place big bets in Asia. The multi-purpose bets must imagine expanded interests and seek insurance against a protectionist US president who’s sceptical of alliances.

In our dark, private imaginings, the new Asia wagers will be insurance with both trade and strategic dimensions. In our public presentations, however, the Asia policy gush is just another stage in Australia’s decades-long journey into Asia. As ever, ‘the odd man in’ (Dick Woolcott’s  wonderful phrase) wants to keep digging in. Going big in Asia will strengthen, not weaken, Australia’s ability to speak in Washington.

Australia needs to think new thoughts in Asia while trying to Trump-proof the US alliance. Our policy on Trump’s America will be hold on hard and hope. The Trump uncertainties, in turn, compel Canberra to do what it should be doing anyway in Asia. It’s time for a fresh burst of policy; Oz  push, persuasion and even a bit of passion in pursuit of renewed regional purposes.

Looking well beyond Donald Trump, though, the Foreign Policy White Paper will gamble on the shape of Asia’s order in the 21st century. Australia’s bets should:

  1. See Japan as an independent strategic leader in Asia
  2. Support ASEAN by seeking membership of the Association for Australia and New Zealand
  3. Align Australia’s Asia policy interests with Indonesia
  4. Seek strategic convergence with India, building shared interests in the Indo-Pacific
  5. Seal a grand Oz bargain with China based on economic, social and legal agreements

Let’s tackle the first two bets…

The close partnership Australia has built with Japan since the 1960s must reach a new strategic level. The long economic partnership is the natural platform for broader cooperation in Asia; Tokyo and Canberra can be the core of a coalition for openness in the global economy. Australia created its formal alliance with the US to prevent Japan ever taking independent strategic action again. Now Australia desperately wants Japan to step up to regional leadership.

The US–Oz–Japan trilateral was designed to help Japan reemerge; suddenly it’s a tool to stop the US from reneging. The crucial allies come together to try to manage the great ally. Australia is betting that Shinzo Abe isn’t a leadership outlier but that he can deliver a permanent change in Japan’s strategic outlook: a Japan that remakes its Asian identity and claims an expanded leadership role.   A big bet.

The Oz–Japan bet is also one ASEAN will have to embrace if Trump bilateralism diminishes America’s role in the East Asia Summit and other ASEAN-centred regional security efforts. Already, ASEAN thinkers are suggesting that the ‘clear alternative for ASEAN is for Japan and Australia to fill the gap where the US falls short’.

If ASEAN wins, Australia wins. If ASEAN fails, Australia is imperilled. To that end, Australia needs to start the slow process of becoming an ASEAN member. If Australia seeks ASEAN membership, New Zealand would come along, and a joint Oz–Kiwi effort would be mutually reinforcing. Convincing the Kiwis would be the easiest part.

Two huge arguments need to be confronted. One, obviously, is with ASEAN. The ten-member Association will take a mountain of convincing. The other is that Australia will have to convince itself of the importance of the change; only then can Canberra convince ASEAN. The ultimate argument won’t be about the geography of Southeast Asia; it’ll be about attitudes, understandings and beliefs. Australia would become part of ASEAN’s political, economic and strategic Community. A great leap of imagination can drive a journey that will take decades.

My original argument was that Australia should reach to be half-in, with formal Observer status by 2024, the 50th anniversary of Australia becoming ASEAN’s first dialogue partner. That’s the approach favoured by former foreign minister, Stephen Smith, who argued that:

‘We should start a conversation with Indonesia and with ASEAN about Australia becoming an Observer to ASEAN… you go to a halfway house, to Observer status that says to ASEAN and Indonesia, we’re serious about this and puts you on a potential pathway to ASEAN membership but not a pathway you necessarily have to adopt.’

A more direct approach to negating the geographic veto (they’re not in Southeast Asia, they don’t belong) is offered by a previous Secretary-General of ASEAN, Ong Keng Yong. He suggests a fresh form, a new category of membership. Perhaps Australia and New Zealand could become ASEAN Community Partners.

We’ll take up the remaining three bets next week…