Tag Archive for: Department of Defence

What does the special forces controversy tell us about strategy and force structure?

Australia’s special forces have been in the news due to allegations ranging from poor culture to potential war crimes, including arbitrary executions. These allegations have led to a number of Defence-initiated reviews and investigations.

Much of the commentary has focused on individuals. And it’s a little dispiriting that Brendan Nelson, the director of the Australian War Memorial, wants to see the inquiries wrapped up as soon as possible, rather than insisting that we do whatever is necessary to reveal what actually happened. But Nelson did usefully invite us to examine not just the special forces but our national leadership: ‘If anyone bears responsibility, let it be the political class, including me, who sent them and the military leadership tasked with adherence to the truths by which they live.’

So let’s elevate our focus to look at the decisions of our political and military leaders who sent the special forces to Afghanistan and kept them there, and what they could learn.

Generally, Australia applies military force as a measure of last resort to achieve national goals. Use of force is part of a strategy. Strategy can be broken down into the classic triumvirate of ends, ways, and means: we want to achieve a goal, we plan how we are going to achieve it, and we apply resources to implement the plan. When those three align, the strategy can succeed. When they don’t, we have a situation like Vietnam and potentially now Afghanistan.

After more than 16 years of involvement and $8.3 billion spent, we’re entitled to ask, What exactly was Australia’s strategy in Afghanistan? And were special forces used appropriately? And what is the way forward?

The ends seem to have been a combination of supporting the alliance with the United States (Prime Minister John Howard invoked ANZUS in the wake of the 9/11 attacks) and defeating terrorism.

Over time, our ways have meandered along with the broader coalition’s, from directly overthrowing the Taliban, to nation-building, then explicitly not nation-building, along with swings between counterterrorism (kill the Taliban) to counterinsurgency (win over the people).

Despite the wavering about ways, throughout Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan the means have involved the special forces. But with such an unfocused strategy, how do we assess progress? And importantly, how do troops on the ground see progress and, consequently, meaning in their contribution? If the allegations are proved, it wouldn’t be the first time that kill counts became for some the measure of success, in the absence of any other way to assess it.

But if the ways and means have become the ends in themselves (we are there in order to be there), there’s no inherent necessity to send special forces. And certainly no need to send special forces on continual rotations. Without pre-empting the outcomes of reviews and inquiries, it does seem that one of the factors at work may well have been the constant rotations that individual special forces members were put through—with some going through five, six or more deployments.

Repeated rotations were combined with the Special Air Service Regiment being increasingly used for direct action—conducting raids to kill and capture enemies—rather than their traditional covert surveillance role. It’s perhaps not surprising that, for a small number, killing became the new normal. Throughout military history, small-unit culture has trumped institutional or national culture. So, again, it’s not surprising if some elements of the special forces—under the influence of charismatic leaders who were particularly good at killing and had obtained status from successful and repeated deployments—behaved badly.

And even for those special forces soldiers who continued to act appropriately (by all accounts the vast majority, including those who raised concerns about the behaviour of some of their colleagues), such frequent rotations impose a high personal cost, potentially on their mental health and on their families. As my colleague Brendan Nicholson has noted, it can be easier for governments to deploy the special forces rather than conventional units, particularly because it’s in the nature of special forces to always say they can do the job. But deploying the special forces is not without personal and institutional costs.

So what are the lessons for our political and military leaders? The main one is that the government should always articulate a clear strategy for military action, including in Afghanistan, outlining the ends, ways and means. And if the ultimate end of that strategy is to secure the support of our great and powerful ally when we need it, so be it. Australians and our servicemen and -women deserve that statement because it helps give meaning to their contributions.

An additional reason may well be to reduce the ability of terrorists to use Afghanistan as a base for launching international attacks (although that’s a strange primary reason, given that terrorists who want to launch such attacks have numerous other sanctuaries they could use).

If these rationales are the goals of the strategy, there’s no inherent need for the means to always be special forces deployed on continual rotations doing direct-action operations. Why dissipate one of Australia’s most potent military capabilities on something that’s not the very highest priority, or that could be done by a broader set of units across the wider army? Why not share the burden more equitably?

But if it does indeed have to be special forces, then some hard thinking about force structure is required. If anything, the continual use of special forces in Afghanistan has exposed the fundamental incoherence between our thinking and doing. We essentially structure our forces for the worst case (the defence of Australia) and invest heavily in ships, submarines and aircraft. But on actual operations the government largely deploys the army, and its special forces in particular, to far-off places in causes that are not directly related to the defence of Australia. Special forces fall into that category of high-value, low-density capabilities—they are powerful, but we don’t have many of them. That usually means they should be employed sparingly, with an eye to not dissipating their capability by overuse.

So, if long-term, sustained high-operational-tempo deployments are what the government actually wants its special forces to do, it probably needs to direct Defence to structure appropriately. Whether that means establishing more special forces beyond the two regiments—which could be challenging with a small army in a small population—or deciding that with appropriate enhancements in training and equipment the army’s infantry, among the world’s best trained and equipped, can take over some of the roles that the special forces are conducting, is for the experts to answer.

If Defence cannot develop the appropriate force structure, its leaders should have the courage to tell government that cycling some of our most talented and motivated people through an endless series of deployments, with no clear goal beyond continuing to do them, cannot be sustained.

It’s clear that that policy exacts a cost that is borne disproportionately.

Vetting the vetters

I agree with Peter Jennings’ assessment that the 2017 Independent Intelligence Review seems to have been almost overshadowed by the Turnbull government’s announcement of the new Home Affairs portfolio.

The 23 major recommendations of the review identify areas in which the Australian intelligence community (AIC) can perform better. One of those is the time taken by the Australian Government Security Vetting Agency (AGSVA) to process applications for ‘Top Secret Positive Vetting’ (TS(PV)) clearances. According to the review, delays are ‘exacerbating the intelligence community’s existing workforce challenges’. The review noted that AGSVA clearances have taken more than 18 months on average.

However, this isn’t the first time the issue has been raised. The inspector-general of intelligence services, Margaret Stone, raised concerns in Senate Estimates hearings in October 2016 and again in May this year about the time taken by AGSVA to process clearances for would-be employees of the Office of the Inspector-General of Intelligence Services. Stone said, ‘The problem is that the security clearances take so long. In fact we had two offerees pull out after more than 18 months’. With a full-time equivalent staff of just 17, it’s easy to see the impact of prolonged delays on the operational capacity of Stone’s office.

The Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) raised concerns about AGSVA’s processing times in a report in 2015. The report concluded:

AGSVA has been unable to meet agreed benchmark timeframes for processing security clearances since 2010, and despite investments in people, systems and processes, there has been no noticeable improvement in the timeliness of clearance processing. In 2013–14, AGSVA completed 55 per cent of clearances within the relevant benchmark timeframe, compared to the target of 95 per cent. In March 2015, over 13 000 security clearances were overdue for revalidation—a process involving the assessment of individuals’ ongoing suitability to hold security clearances. The backlog is a consequence of AGSVA using available resources to prioritise the processing of initial clearances, so as to enable employees and contractors to start work in positions that require a security clearance. The significant backlog of revalidation work requires management attention at a time of heightened government concern about the threat posed by trusted insiders.

It would appear that the government didn’t heed the ANAO’s warning, as the problems continue.

AGSVA is the central agency for processing and granting security clearances for many federal, state and territory agencies. It processes clearances for the Department of Defence and the wider intelligence community, including the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission, AUSTRAC and the Office of the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security. Worryingly, the intelligence review highlighted that the AGSVA took ‘substantially longer than some AIC agencies that undertake their own TS(PV) clearances’. ASIO, the Australian Secret Intelligence Service and the Office of National Assessments each have their own TS(PV) clearance processes that meet their needs.

The Gillard government originally established AGSVA within Defence in October 2010. The aim was to replace a decentralised system—in which individual entities managed personnel security vetting based on Australian government policy requirements—with a whole-of-government vetting service operating on a fee-for-service basis. According to the 2015 ANAO report, ‘The Government expected that centralised vetting would: result in a more efficient vetting process; improve the consistency of vetting practices; and deliver $5.3 million in annual cost savings’. But the model has clearly failed our intelligence agencies and potentially hampered their operational capacity.

The problems plaguing security vetting were in the spotlight before AGSVA’s formation. In 2011, the ABC’s Lateline reported on concerns raised about the Defence Security Authority by three former Defence workers. They alleged that, in 2009–10, false information had been included in thousands of security checks to speed up the vetting process, potentially compromising ASIO’s records and Australia’s national security. An inquiry confirmed that the substance of the allegations was true, and that the integrity of data in both Defence and ASIO had been undermined, if not compromised.

In a time of unprecedented challenges to our national security, the long delays in security vetting for some of our key intelligence agencies are clearly unacceptable. The authors of the intelligence review recommend that:

ASIO receive additional resourcing to allow it to second staff to AGSVA as soon as possible. We also recommend that the situation with AGSVA TS(PV) clearances be reviewed in early 2018 to allow time for the current remediation program to have effect. If processing times still exceed six months, alternative options for TS(PV) clearances should be explored.

They also call for consideration of options such as devolving the responsibility for TS(PV) clearances to individual intelligence agencies, and giving ASIO responsibility for TS(PV) clearances for staff of the Defence Intelligence Organisation, the Australian Signals Directorate, the Australian Federal Police and the Office of the Inspector-General of Intelligence Services, among others.

The Turnbull government should heed those recommendations and conduct an immediate review of the AGSVA. It should also consider reinstituting the model of individual entities managing their own security vetting based on Australian government policy requirements—even though, for the intelligence agencies, it would be a case of back to the future.

The good and not so good of policymaking

The most important point to make about the government’s proposed Home Affairs portfolio is that these new arrangements can be made to work. They will not harm our counterterrorism performance and could improve Australia’s underwhelming efforts to protect against foreign interference and strengthen the security of critical infrastructure. But in announcing last Tuesday what Prime Minister Turnbull called ‘the most significant reform of Australia’s national intelligence and domestic security arrangements—and their oversight—in more than forty years’, it’s surprising that so little groundwork had been done to justify the need for change or to say how it was going to be done.

The Home Affairs announcement was linked to the government’s release of the unclassified version of the 2017 Independent Intelligence Review. By contrast, this is a meticulously argued report based on extensive consultations and containing detailed recommendations and implementation strategies that will significantly reshape the Australian intelligence community. The prime minister said that the government would accept some of the review’s key proposals and that a ‘task force’ in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet could consider other recommendations ‘in detail.’ Changing tack, Mr Turnbull then said, ‘In these difficult times, repeated reviews and task forces are not enough. We need to take more decisive action.’ With that the Home Office was announced, with promises that detailed implementation arrangements would be worked out in the second half of this year and ‘its roll-out to be complete by 30 June next year’. There is indeed more than one way to skin a policy cat.

The fallow period of implementation planning creates a policy mammoth moving slowly across the tundra of Australian politics. Will the beast still be alive in June 2018? Government should move quickly to shape the policy debate by issuing a discussion paper that sets out, as clearly as possible, the strategic reasons for making these big changes and addresses some of the questions that have arisen in the last few days. For example, how will ASIO and the AFP ‘retain their current statutory independence, which is such a vital aspect of the Australian system’, as the PM said, while the Home Affairs portfolio ‘oversee[s] policy and strategic planning and the coordination of the operational response to the threats we face’ at the same time? [My emphasis.]

More clarity is needed around the handling of ministerial warrants and authorisations for ASIO and AFP activities. The PM said that the Attorney-General ‘will retain his current role in the issue of warrants and ministerial authorisations’. But he also said that the government will ‘review the role of the Attorney-General in the role in ASIO’s operations in the work to design and establish the new portfolio to ensure continued and efficient oversight’. When pressed about whether ASIO and AFP warrants and authorisations would require the signature of one or two ministers, the Attorney-General seemed to suggest that both he and the Home Affairs minister would authorise actions, saying that for certain types of ASIS and ASD actions ‘there are two hands, as it were, on the mechanism to ensure that a warrant or an authorisation has the oversight and scrutiny of two ministers and not one’. So, the Attorney-General will be either the sole approver of warrants, or one of two ministers. But on the third hand, the Attorney-General may not have any oversight role after yet another review. Clear?

The recommendations in the intelligence review are certainly clear and well thought through. The current Office of National Assessments undergoes a subtle but important name change to the Office of National Intelligence—the significance being that the ONI will take on a stronger leadership role of the intelligence community, not simply be the drafter of community-wide national assessment reports. The agency’s director-general position will be elevated to the level of a departmental secretary and will be more analogous to the US Director of National Intelligence in function. The DG-ONI will become a centrally important figure in discussions at the National Security Committee of Cabinet. The ONI is recommended to have a 50% increase in analytical staff, addressing a systemic weakness in the intelligence community, which can often be one-person deep in terms of real expertise on specific countries and issues.

The government has accepted the review’s recommendation to make the Australian Signals Directorate a statutory authority within the Defence portfolio. This continues ASD’s journey to becoming something more like the UK’s GCHQ, which is separate from but works closely with defence. This is the end of a turf battle in which Defence lost a major crown jewel. How did that happen, chaps?

There’s a lot more to the L’Estrange–Merchant review, including sensible measures to strengthen the ministerial warrants system over certain types of intelligence operations and to boost the role of the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, which has done sterling work in the last few years and is one of best committee appointments for aspiring backbenchers. It’s a pity the government didn’t clearly commit to implementing all of it, instead of cherrypicking some recommendations and passing the rest to a PM&C ‘task force’ to consider. Why do reviews like this if the final product is then opened to public service predation? It’s not as if the government didn’t have the chance to react to drafts as the study developed.

The 2017 review of intelligence: a first look

There’s an air of ‘continuity with change’ about the new Independent Intelligence Review. The review almost flew under the radar this week amid all of the other changes to Australia’s national security apparatus. This post is my initial reflection on the review’s main recommendations.

As for continuity, it’s clear that the reviewers, Michael L’Estrange and Stephen Merchant, found most of the existing arrangements to be fit for purpose: ‘The clear dividing lines [that Justice Hope’s royal commissions of the 1970s and ’80s] highlighted—between foreign and security intelligence, intelligence and law enforcement, intelligence collection and assessment, and intelligence assessment and policy formulation—continue to provide the foundations of Australia’s intelligence community. We assess those delineations have broad enduring relevance.’

Following that assessment, it’s perhaps a little surprising that one of the major recommended changes was the establishment of a new Office of National Intelligence, to be located in the prime minister’s portfolio. While that would bring Australia’s intelligence arrangements into line with the other Five Eyes partners (Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US), the need for the new office isn’t immediately clear. Under the existing arrangements there’s already a statutory responsibility on the Office of National Assessments to play a coordination role. Section 5 of the ONA Act says that one of the functions of the office is ‘to coordinate the foreign intelligence activities that Australia engages in, including in relation to setting Australia’s foreign intelligence requirements based on Australia’s foreign intelligence priorities’.

So the coordination mechanism is already in place, at least as far as foreign intelligence activities are concerned, and it has been running smoothly for many years. But the review observes that the contemporary threat environment is increasingly transnational in nature, and that there’s more overlap between foreign and domestic intelligence requirements than hitherto, especially in the area of counterterrorism. The argument for the new ONI to have a wider remit than ONA (which it will subsume) seems to come down to a tighter integration of foreign and domestic security intelligence.

I’m not entirely convinced by that argument, for two reasons. First, as ASIO will tell anyone within earshot, it is emphatically not a ‘domestic spy agency’. Its work has had an international aspect for as long as the agency has existed, and it seems to have managed perfectly well. Second, the multi-disciplinary National Threat Assessment Centre was stood up in 2003, and has been a demonstrable success in coordinating domestic and foreign intelligence activities and law enforcement. The centre’s work has been behind many of the successful disruptions of planned terrorist acts.

The other thing that puzzled me on my first reading was the recommended change of status of the Australian Signals Directorate, the national signals intelligence and information security agency. ASD has long resided in the Department of Defence for management purposes, as befits its important role in supporting military operations. But it has also had another hat as a national agency and information security authority. The review recommends putting the emphasis more on the ‘national’ role and making ASD a statutory body, though (confusingly) it will remain in the Defence portfolio. But ASD will no longer be subject to the ‘efficiency dividends’ (an Orwellian term for budget cuts) that other agencies in the portfolio have to absorb.

Freeing ASD from the efficiency dividend is a worthwhile step. The demand for its services has increased sharply in recent years, mostly because of the increasing importance of its defensive and offensive cyber activities, as well as its terrorism-related work. From discussions, it’s clear that ASD has suffered badly from the dual pressures of less money—and hence fewer staff—and more demand. It has also suffered when trying to recruit IT-savvy personnel for its cyber arm, and four years of zero wage growth made an already difficult situation worse. But surely the government could simply have instructed the previous Defence secretary to allocate ASD an appropriate budget? It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that this is another piece of evidence that Russell Hill has largely been an ungoverned fiefdom in recent years.

In any case, there’ll need to be a substantial rewrite of the corresponding legislative framework. Since 2001, the activities of ASD and the two other foreign intelligence collection agencies (the Australian Secret Intelligence Service and the Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation) have been regulated by the Intelligence Services Act. With ASD becoming a statutory body, it will presumably require its own Act, which might be a good thing in some ways. While ASD’s signals intelligence function plays the same broad security role as the human and geospatial intelligence activities of ASIS and AGO, respectively, its cyber activities are distinctly different. A tailored legal framework will be helpful as cyber operations mature. An alternative approach might have been to split off signals intelligence from cyber, but that also has pros and cons—which the US has been grappling with.

On balance then—and I stress that this is based on my first reading of the report—the major changes that have been announced don’t seem to be aimed at solving obvious problems. (That could also be said of all of this week’s announcements.) But they also result in new arrangements that, if carefully implemented, could build on existing strengths. Hopefully the working parts of the existing model will undergo minimalist changes.

One thing I haven’t mentioned in this post is the oversight of intelligence. I’ll come back to that next week.

Defence bipartisanship: holy grail or poisoned chalice?

The Australian parliament is investigating a new way to surrender its prerogatives, along with an abdication of basic democratic principles, in favour of the military chiefs and bureaucrats on Russell Hill.

On 14 June 2017, the chair of the Defence Sub-Committee of the Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, Senator Linda Reynolds, announced that she would lead an inquiry into the possibility of a bipartisan Australian defence agreement. Such an agreement would bind the major parties to a joint ticket on planning and funding for multibillion-dollar projects such as the future frigate and submarine fleets.

Senator Reynolds says (PDF) that an inquiry is needed to look for ways to ensure stability of defence planning because ‘the nature of Australia’s three-year electoral cycle has demonstrated that this stability cannot be assumed, or guaranteed’.

According to Senator Reynolds, the aim in pursuing bipartisanship is to ensure the ‘efficiency and effectiveness on the part of both Defence and Defence Industry’. She says the main vehicle for achieving this will be ‘stability in strategic guidance’ and that this characteristic ‘generates’ efficiency.

The political class itself is a barrier to stable planning. Recent white papers show that as governments change, each seeks to leave its mark on long-term policy. That can be disruptive as political slogans jump from ‘national security’ to ‘Australia in the Asian century’, and now to ‘innovative defence industries’. Leaders of the ADF, or at least many in senior ranks, seek relief from this burdensome reality. They rightly say that defending Australia is a long-term job and as such it requires committed long-term planning and funding. The ADF wants to be ready (financed and equipped) to meet any challenge and to combat Australia’s enemies unburdened by the potential for a change in government priorities every third year.

With a bipartisan agreement, the argument goes, Russell Hill would be able to get on with the job of defending Australia without having to worry about politicisation, voters changing their minds, or the media-driven circus that flourishes on Capital Hill.

Bipartisanship is, as the senator puts it, something of a holy grail for the ADF. If only the gallant knights could, as Sir Galahad of Arthurian legend, find the cup of the last supper and sip from it. Unknown forms of healing and beneficence would surely arise from that act. But the assumed restorative powers of the ‘holy grail’ of bipartisanship are almost certainly more in the realm of myth than reality, more legend than logic.

There’s little evidence that disagreement between the two political parties (the Coalition and the Labor Party) is the main cause of disruptions to major defence strategies, force structure planning and funding. The last major examples were possibly in the 1970s as Australia transitioned through the Whitlam Labor government, but even the drawdown of forces from Vietnam began before he took office.

As previous contributors to The Strategist have observed—for example, in May and November 2015 and February 2016—Defence itself has been one of the main obstacles to effective and efficient force procurement. Reviews such as the Kinnaird, Mortimer and Coles reviews, as well as yearly major projects reports produced by the ANAO, suggest that those management issues are historic and systematic. In 2009, Patrick Walters reported on the Rudd government’s decision to cancel the Howard-era Super Seasprite helicopter procurement. But it’s likely even a Coalition government would have axed it given the epic weaknesses in Defence’s handling of the project. It had been criticised sharply and publicly as early as 2002 by the Coalition’s defence minister, Robert Hill.

Defence admitted its own internal management flaws in its 2015 First Principles Review (PDF), acknowledging that capability development was hampered by its inefficient organisational structures as well as complicated, slow and impracticable work processes. A recent audit by the ANAO suggests that, in the 18 months since, the department has made ‘limited progress’ on addressing those areas.

None of these reports suggests that a lack of bipartisanship was to blame for procurement and availability problems. Instead, when things go wrong they often appear to be failures of government, rather than the result of changes of government between one party and the other.

Meanwhile, the political and ethical dangers of the proposed new convention on bipartisanship are abundant and troubling.

The claim for bipartisanship as a defence against changing choices is simply illogical. Governments and military forces need to be able to adapt rapidly to geopolitical, technological and economic changes, not chain themselves to funding and capability decisions made years before. The Coalition’s 2016 Defence White Paper provided for a timely shift in policies, funding and priorities. That would never have been possible if the Liberal–National Coalition had locked itself into bipartisanship on the 2009 ALP Defence White Paper’s funding and priorities.

In addition, there’s no conceivable mechanism for bipartisanship that would insert the Opposition into the deliberative processes of Cabinet decision-making on major defence equipment. Senator Reynolds’ proposal can therefore only be about asking the Opposition to rubber-stamp decisions on which it has had almost zero critical input.

More importantly, the quest for bipartisanship, if implemented, would further erode the low levels of scrutiny of national security policy by Australian voters and deny citizens public contestability of how governments invest billions of taxpayer dollars in local defence skills and jobs. Less partisan debate in the parliament would also mean less media coverage.

If adopted, this proposal would also send a dangerous message to future governments—that they can continue to harbour prerogatives of secrecy and backroom deals on national security that owe more to the 1920s than to the emerging demand of citizens for a more transparent and participatory democracy in the 2020s.

What will the government next declare to be so important that it be left to the professional politicians and bureaucrats in a way that will deny voters the chance for any meaningful repudiation? Any opposition party, regardless of its political complexion, should reject this proposal as profoundly undemocratic.

Properly ministering to our defence force

The Australian Defence organisation has an undeserved reputation for supposedly ‘devouring’ its ministers. The generally high throughput has instead had far more to do with the portfolio being frequently allocated to those already in the twilight of their ministerial and/or parliamentary careers, lost elections and ‘quickie’ reshuffles based on factional politics after divisive prime ministerial transitions.

Moreover, portfolio governance difficulties have also long been exacerbated by three structural inefficiencies: appointment of an insufficient number of ministers, junior ministers being double-hatted with time-consuming responsibilities in other portfolios, and constant unnecessary changes in the structure and titling of Defence’s ministerial governance.

Julia Gillard reshuffled the Defence portfolio three times, each time worsening its governance and wider business continuity. Most tragically, she destroyed the innovative and successfully tested team-management structure instituted by John Faulkner (under Rudd), whereby the portfolio had a senior minister, two junior ministers (one full-time) and two full-time parliamentary secretaries to spread and co-ordinate the governance load effectively.

Such a structure also enables more focused ministerial career development for the challenges of a complex portfolio. British practice, and the careers of Kim Beazley, Brendan Nelson and John Faulkner, clearly shows experience in junior roles in the Defence portfolio better prepares incumbents for success when Minister for Defence.

When Malcolm Turnbull undertook his first ministerial reshuffle, public discussion of the Defence portfolio focused on peripheral issues. These included our first female Minister for Defence, the appointment of a second cabinet minister to the portfolio, how such a relationship would work at the personal level (when the real problem is co-ordinating their offices and not doubling up the work of the department), and the blatant political expediency of aligning the defence industry ministership with electorally volatile South Australia.

Then and since, most commentators have missed the longer term context and substantive issues involved. Furthermore, the portfolio also narrowly avoided yet another twilight-career, sideways-shift, short-termer episode only because Joe Hockey rejected being warehoused to Defence in favour of a senior ambassadorship.

In nearly every recent reshuffle—in both the numbers provided and the structure of ministerial governance—ministers have been allocated to the Defence portfolio because political and factional priorities have wrongly won out over the need for appropriate portfolio governance.

Defence is a major portfolio in responsibility, span, complexity and financial terms, but its governance has suffered over recent decades as the number of ministers has varied between one-and-a-half and three. It’s currently two-and-one-third at best, and it shows.

This compares illogically with the full-time ministerial attention allotted to comparable major governmental responsibilities, such as PM&C (5), DFAT (4), Treasury and Finance (4) and Health and Ageing (3). Moreover, Turnbull’s 2015 reshuffle unwisely removed Defence’s last parliamentary secretary (now assistant minister) position.

These governance duties cascaded on to the remaining part-time junior minister, Dan Tehan, chiefly because the other two ministers hold cabinet rank. The assistant minister in Defence has traditionally had one of the largest financial delegations among all junior and assistant ministers. The job includes onerous and time-consuming responsibilities for matters such as Defence’s landholdings (the largest in Australia), the ADF’s complex reserve elements, community cadet schemes and honours and awards.

Tehan is already one of the busiest ministers in the government, covering four ministerships (Cyber Security, Defence Personnel, Veterans’ Affairs and the Centenary of Anzac) spread over the PM&C, Defence and DVA portfolios, with the first three each involving complex matters and busy ministerial calendars.

This now habitual double-hatting of the particularly time-consuming Veterans’ Affairs portfolio with Defence personnel responsibilities is mainly done to pretend that Defence has more ministers (and government focus) than it actually does. The vaunted co-ordination advantages don’t seem much evident after an on-and-off-again decade of experimentation, and the cost in lost Defence governance has been particularly high. Not to mention helping entrench a loss of confidence across the veterans community.

As the successful collegiate model instituted by Faulkner showed, Defence needs a senior portfolio minister handling all the big-picture stuff, a full-time minister for defence science, technology and industry/procurement (whether in cabinet or not), and a full-time junior minister for the defence force (not just personnel matters). A full-time assistant minister for the minor but busy supporting stuff should also be restored.

As the successful UK ministerial model shows, a holistic Minister for the Defence Force enables both the day-to-day operational and capability development matters – and their personnel consequences -to be ministered as the two complementary sides of the ADF effectiveness coin that they are, thus freeing the senior minister to focus on bigger-picture tasks.

Little tweaks to the machinery of portfolio governance would also help.

As with the Attorney-General and the Minister for Justice, co-locating all Defence ministers in the same corridor at Parliament House would greatly assist staff teamwork, collegial culture, timely decision-making and external business relationships. The cost of rewiring the secure IT systems would soon pay for itself in greater efficiency and harmony.

Not arbitrarily changing ministerial titles or rank structures (parliamentary secretary versus assistant minister) on a whim would assist business continuity over decades. Consistent responsibilities and their titling would particularly preclude the embarrassing long delays, and now endemic functional omissions in ministerial appointment letters, that hamper the Defence Department and its many national and international interlocutors with every ministerial reshuffle.

Marise Payne: lessons from D-Day

This week is the 73rd anniversary of perhaps the most complex joint and integrated military operation in history. Operation Overlord, the 1944 D-Day invasion of Europe, involved the largest amphibious armada ever seen, and brought together a daunting sea, land and air military force at one place at one time, all without computers and mass data storage, digital communications, or even PowerPoint.

I sometimes wonder if we could do it again with only slide rules and typewriters. How did they mount a 1,200 plane airborne assault, a 5,000 ship amphibious landing, and put 120,000 soldiers on the beaches in one day?

I believe it was less about technology and platforms, and more about attitudes, behaviours, and organisational agility. While we commemorate the combat losses incurred, let’s also remember their example of joint and integrated effort, and identify the lessons.

The 2016 Defence White Paper said there’ll be ‘more emphasis placed on the joint force—bringing together different land, air, sea, intelligence, electronic warfare, cyber and space capabilities so the ADF can apply more force more rapidly and more effectively.’ It’s important that we drive and reinforce this change.

When government advocates for ‘a joint and integrated ADF’ we want more than a networked and integrated tri-service force. We want an ADF that is a joint actor, meshed with the government sector, industrial sector and civil society sector to produce an integrated national effect.

When we talk of using ‘all elements of national power to resolve national challenges’, we want Defence to be a well-integrated and joint resource and an integral part of an international ecosystem of appropriate capabilities, operating in a connected, effective and efficient manner.

The modern world is widely networked, deeply integrated, and highly agile and technology is disrupting industries from media and banking to hotels and taxis. Clearly Defence, and government more broadly, are not immune.

I don’t underestimate the challenge this rapid change represents. Aboard HMAS Arunta in the Strait of Hormuz, I spoke with crew members about planned upgrades to their IT hardware. They were excited by the benefits the upgrades would bring but it can take years from the initial upgrade proposal to when the last system is installed in the final frigate. This is an age in IT terms and, like painting the Sydney Harbour Bridge, you are potentially starting the process again as soon as you finish.

Our democracy is founded on supporting and maintaining a rules-based global order which comes with obligations. Support to nations under pressure or in distress, and intervention to defend that global order, or to counter global threats, is needed from time to time. Such support and intervention needs to be graduated, scalable, agile, and sophisticated, and at times nuanced. It requires a Defence contribution that is properly joint and well-integrated.

As part of a community of like-minded nations, we share alliances, treaties, and relationships ranging from the formal ANZUS alliance, the core of Australia’s security and defence arrangements, to an enhanced opportunity partner arrangement with NATO. Our security and prosperity depends on a stable Indo-Pacific region and a global order, in which power is not misused and tensions can be managed through negotiations based on international law.

Being able to respond effectively to regional security challenges and opportunities relies on cooperation with allies and partners.  As ASPI’s Executive Director Peter Jennings highlighted, integrating the three services is the start but the ‘definitive edge will come from Australia’s ability to exploit joint, allied and regional abilities to integrate.’

Today’s challenges and threats are increasingly complex, ranging from the variants of the terrorist threat and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to the effects of climate change and cyber attacks.

Any tendency to complacency born of a belief that our increasing economic interdependence acts as a guarantor of security is a false belief. We need to invest the same commitment and ambition in our security cooperation as we have in economic cooperation.

And we need to make new efforts to uphold and reinforce the rules-based order that has enabled us to get to where we are today. An effective way for us to defend against rules being bent or selectively applied is to strengthen regional cooperative mechanisms.

Through increasing engagement with our regional partners and allies, whether by bilateral and multi-lateral exercises, or embedded staff, or student exchanges, or shared operational activity, the ADF develops its ability to work more closely with its regional counterparts.   This draws us together and binds us in the collective self-interest of stability and security.

Our interoperability with the US and the coalition enabled us to respond to the threat posed by Daesh in 2014. Within three weeks, our Air Task Group began operations, the result of a Defence decision over a decade ago to ensure we could ‘plug in’ to coalition missions with the RAAF sending personnel on exchanges and exercises with other nations and training the way it would fight.

In the Coalition Air and Space Operations Centre, the nerve centre of the air campaign in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, I saw Australian personnel sitting side-by-side with allied counterparts to deliver air support to the Iraqi Security Forces.

The US Alliance remains the core of Australia’s security and defence arrangements and at the AUSMIN talks this week we committed to continue to strengthen the relationship, including through our continuing joint military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and force posture initiatives in northern Australia. Australia has more than 600 ADF personnel, scientists and engineers in the US and an Australian major-general is deputy commander of the US Army in the Pacific.

Secretary Mattis is a strong supporter of the alliance and continued US engagement in the Indo-Pacific, which he reaffirmed at the Shangri-La Dialogue and in Sydney saying the US commitment to was based on ‘strategic interests and on shared values of free people, free markets, and a strong and vibrant economic partnership.’ Australia and the US underlined our shared, commitment to strong regional organisations, especially the East Asia Summit, APEC, and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting-Plus.

The government is committed to working with industry to ensure we’re able to develop and maximise the skills and knowledge we have in Australia to deliver the capability we need to achieve a truly joint and integrated ADF, a force that is integrated by design, not stitched together afterwards.

Innovation focused on continual improvement and collaboration among science, industry and defence has ensured our forces are among the best equipped in the world. This required Defence to work closely with industry in innovative ways, as we are doing for programs such as Plan Jericho.

A significant improvement of the RAAF’s new P8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft over the Orions, is that the information gathered can be fed out in real time to other ADF assets on the sea, land and in the air. Not only is that a leap forward in capability terms, it’s a completely new proposition in that it’s entirely networked.   Every part of the ADF needs to be ready to capitalise on that.

HQ Joint Operations Command is an excellent example of the maturing approach to operations.

But there’s much more to do to create a truly joint and integrated ADF. We need to continue to drive engagement with our regional partners and allies and with industry and government agencies. We need to drive technological change and organisational change.

The First Principles Review addressed the need for a unified Defence organisation, including a joint force more consistently linked to its strategy. In the past, the organisation has not been appropriately structured and it’s been insufficiently unified in the way it conducts business. Reforms have been too narrowly targeted to effect the necessary mindset change.

Both the government and senior leaders in Defence recognised that the organisation at the time was not best organised to meet these challenges. So far 63 of 75 of the review’s recommendations have been implemented.

To deliver the capable and sustainable joint forces we require, Defence must be more integrated with clear accountabilities and streamlined decision-making. That’s why we created the integrated ADF Headquarters to set the foundations for joint forces with the highest levels of military capability and technological sophistication.

Integration will require ongoing cultural change. Attitudes, behaviours, and organisational agility are key to ensuring we can create a truly joint and integrated ADF. We live in a world in which economic power, and all that flows from it in terms of strategic capability and global stability, is shifting. A strong network of defence relationships, internally and externally, is fundamental to our national security.

To maintain a regionally superior Defence Force capable of meeting challenges and seizing opportunities over the next few decades, our military must be structured appropriately and be able to operate as a truly joint and integrated force. Not just as three services cooperating, but a genuinely joint organisation that can integrate with domestic agencies and industry, and our international partners and allies.

As demonstrated on D-Day, joint and integrated capability is more than the quantity and quality of platforms and equipment. It’s about attitudes, behaviours, connections, and confidence.

Talking to the chiefs: Ray Griggs (part 2)

For the ADF to be a war winning force it must be fully integrated and accepting of cultural and gender differences, says Defence’s Vice Chief, Ray Griggs.

Vice Admiral Griggs tells The Strategist the transformation in attitudes he’s seen since joining the ADF as a 17 year old recruit reservist in Adelaide in 1978 is dramatic. ‘It’s night and day.’

He says the key to completing the process is to convince the community that the inclusion debate is about capability. ‘We fight in teams whether it’s a ship, a battalion or a squadron. You can’t be effective if everyone in that team is not respected and trusted. It’s as simple as that.’

Griggs strongly rejects criticism of the ADF’s push to recruit and support personnel from all of Australia’s cultures. ‘We’ve been copping it over what we’re trying to do in the area of culture and inclusion. In the early 2000s we were being belted up for being non-inclusive and having a poor culture and we’ve put a lot of effort into improving our culture.

‘If your organisation is not diverse, how can you be better than the other side? I think that message gets lost so you get charged with being involved in identity politics, or embarking on some politically correct campaign, or with having an ADF that’s ‘got soft’, says Griggs. He says the ADF is definitely not soft. ‘It’s a very, very professional force that is incredible well equipped, has great people and is well trained.’

Like every organisation, the ADF faces a big challenge in the nation’s changing demographics and it can’t continue to recruit from just its traditional base with a smaller pool of people at traditional recruiting age. ‘We have to be able to tap the talent across the country and not shut segments of that population off just because they don’t look or sound like a stereotypical view of what your demographic base is.

Indigenous recruitment is increasing steadily.

‘We have around 600,000 Muslims in Australia and we need to tap into that talent as much as in any other part of the population. That gets us into all sorts of difficult territory but the reality is we’re trying to put on the park the best ADF this country can offer and the only way to do that is to tap into the talent across all parts of society.

‘Team cohesion is crucial to us fighting and winning. We are deadly serious about it. We’ve got to fight and win.’

Diversity also makes it easier for the ADF to operate in culturally sensitive areas, says Griggs. ‘If your force is culturally diverse and inclusive in its nature, you’re inherently better prepared to do operations in different parts of the world where understanding those sensitivities becomes second nature to you because you understand them in your own workplace.’

When Griggs joined the Navy it was a crime to be gay in the services and he recalls a colleague who thought he was going to be outed and killed himself. ‘We’ve done a pretty good job on gender though we’ve still got a way to go. We’ve done very well in terms of the LGBT population.’

The Defence Abuse Response Task Force exposed what Griggs describes as ‘some pretty awful stuff’ occurring over five decades and Defence leaders were particularly concerned that some of it was contemporary. ‘That has really sharpened our focus on cultural reform.’

He, like other senior officers, spent time with abuse victims. He took part in about a dozen ‘restorative engagement’ sessions, listening to the stories of abuse victims. ‘You can’t have those interactions with people and not be affected by it and not see the human cost of what abuse did to them.’

Griggs says the task force report was incredibly difficult to read. ‘It’s been hard to listen to these stories and see the pain in these people’s eyes and the impact it’s had throughout their lives. ‘It was once a very rough and tough culture. I think the culture has improved massively. You can’t fight and win in a team unless you trust and respect each other. That’s what this is all about.’

While recruitment and retention rates are strong, a related challenge is to find people with the skills to run complex new equipment. ‘Enough people are joining the forces. An open question is whether we have enough with the skill sets we need.’ Griggs says that’s the same for any organisation with a high technology base. ‘One of our biggest national challenges, not just in Defence, is the issue of STEM and how we attract young people to technical, scientific, engineering, maths related careers.

‘We run our own programs but we’ve still got to have an outflow from the education system of kids who have interest, aptitude and competence in those areas. We’re going to get more sophisticated and more technical. But I don’t doubt we can find the people we need.’

The ADF looks 10 to 15 years ahead and he’s confident the Navy will find crews for its 12 new submarines. ‘We’ve shown over the last five or six years that we can grow the submarine arm. It’s not like we need the crews tomorrow. We’ll be building these things into the 2040s.’

Griggs notes that five of the Navy’s six Collins-class submarines are now at sea or ready for sea. ‘I remember rejoicing when we had three at sea. It shows what you can do with an enormous amount of hard work, effort and focus.’ Success breeds success, he says, and the Collins is now an exceptional boat. Six years ago morale in the submarine arm was pretty ordinary.

‘Now it’s completely turned around with crews deployed and doing interesting work.’

Marise Payne: ‘eliminate Daesh fighters in Iraq and Syria’

The foreign fighters of the Islamic State terror group, or Daesh, must be eliminated in Iraq and Syria to stop them coming home to carry out attacks in Australia and the region, says Defence Minister Marise Payne.

Senator Payne told The Strategist that ADF personnel were well aware of why they were in the Middle East. ‘They know we are supporting the international coalition in the self defence of Iraq to ensure that the sort of acts perpetrated by Daesh and its acolytes and the metastasised versions of Daesh around the world will not, as far as we are humanly able to prevent, come to our shores or to our region.’

Senator Payne said she’d recently discussed progress in the operation and its objectives with coalition and regional nations.

‘It’s a serious focus for us and for our neighbour nations, particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and The Philippines from whence foreign fighters came and to where they may return.’

‘The ideal outcome, the preferred outcome, is that they are not in a position to be able to return from the Middle East as Mosul is liberated and as progress is made in places like Raqqa in Syria. If they’re able to leave and intend to head in this direction, then we’ll continue to work very hard with our counterparts to address those concerns.’

Asked if that meant killing terrorist fighters who went to Iraq from Australia and the region, Senator Payne replied: ‘Yes. We would rather that they were eliminated as part of the process of the self-defence of Iraq and the operations being undertaken in Syria.’

Australian and New Zealand army instructors in the Taji military complex, northwest of Baghdad, have trained 22,000 Iraqi personnel including 3500 police. The military training for the police is intended to help them hold and protect areas recaptured from the terror group.

Australia’s Special Operations Task Group is supporting Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service in its assault on Mosul and the RAAF’s Air Task Group is providing crucial air support.

The Iraqi forces now fighting their way into the toughest parts of Iraq’s second largest city daily demonstrated that they were willing to fight and to die to defeat IS, Senator Payne said.

In seven months of heavy fighting, Eastern Mosul has been cleared and the Iraqis are now retaking the city’s Old Quarter in the West. This is the densest urban terrain with narrow streets which are constantly booby trapped with improvised bombs, and are too tight for armoured vehicles.

‘There’s been very significant progress in those seven months but it continues to be an extraordinarily difficult fighting environment,’ Senator Payne said.

Daesh fighters use individual civilians, families and sometimes larger groups as human shields.

The RAAF puts a massive effort into mission planning to avoid civilian casualties in such heavily built up areas. ‘And after each operation we review every weapon strike to ensure they are consistent with their pre-strike approvals. Rules of engagement are absolutely designed to minimise the dangers to civilians and to comply with our obligations under international law.’

‘All of that said, this is a fight, a fight for the self-defence of Iraq and to combat the spread of a pretty toxic form of terrorism throughout the world,’ Senator Payne said.

‘Nobody wants to see civilian casualties. Fortunately to date, we have been able to indicate that Australians have not been involved in those to the best of our knowledge or capacity to determine. But none of us can walk away from the complexity of the environment, the difficulty of the fight and the fact we are dealing with a toxic enemy.’ Australian special forces calling in air strikes was essential to the Iraqi advance, Senator Payne said. The Australians were proud of the soldiers they were turning out, she said. When Iraq and Australia played a soccer world cup preliminary match in Australia, Australian and Iraqi soldiers played their own game at Taji. The Australians did not begrudge the Iraqis a 5-1 win.

At a recent counter-Islamic State meeting in Copenhagen, Iraq’s Defence Minister, Arfan al-Hayali, spoke of life in those parts of the city that had returned to normal. In parts of Mosul police were back directing traffic, Senator Payne told The Strategist.

In March boarding parties from the Australian frigate, HMAS Arunta, seized 800 kgs of hashish hidden in a cargo of coffee aboard a dhow. This month they seized 250 kg of heroin from another vessel. Such interceptions have a significant impact on the supply of money to the terrorists to finance operations.

American commanders told Senator Payne that the RAN crews brought great skill to these intercepts and they ensured each step was fully documented so that further action, including prosecutions, could follow.

While anti-IS forces were closing in on Raqqa, Australian air operations were being carried out in other parts of Syria. ‘Any change to that would have to come in a request to Australia and we would examine that on its merits,’ Senator Payne said.

With RAAF strike jets, air to air refuelling tankers and the Wedgetail command and control aircraft all operating over Syria, Senator Payne was asked if she was concerned about the safety of Australian crews after the US missile strikes on a Syrian air base.

Senator Payne said the Americans had warned the Australians in advance that the strikes were to take place. ‘When that happens we review force protection measures and we adjust those as required. Force protection is very much at the forefront of our minds.’

So far there has been no request for Australian troops to help train friendly forces in Syria, Senator Payne said. If such a request was made, it would be considered on its merits. ‘But at this stage we are fully focused on supporting the Iraqi security forces.’

The Budget that was

The 2017 ASPI Cost of Defence will be launched tonight. Here’s the executive summary, and here’s a copy of my remarks at the launch event in Canberra. Regular readers of The Strategist will have seen my analysis of several issues over the past 16 days, beginning here the morning after the budget. For those who want the CliffsNotes version, this post recaps the key points.

Defence funding will rise by 6.5% in real terms next year to reach $34.7 billion, representing 1.9% of GDP. Expenditure is budgeted to reach 2% of GDP in 2020–21, as promised in the 2016 Defence White Paper. Investment in new capital equipment is the main beneficiary, with purchases slated to rise from $7.2 billion in 2016–17 to $11.6 billion in 2020–21. Although the budget provides no visibility of funding beyond that date, all signs are that the government remains committed to its White Paper funding pledge.

Two efficiency dividends have been imposed on Defence since the 2016 Budget; neither appears onerous or unreasonable. After several years of difficulty retaining personnel strength, the ADF appears to have gotten recruitment and retention under control. The same cannot be said of Defence’s APS workforce, in which morale is low and numbers fell 600 below the budget target for this year. A restoration of pay rise parity with the ADF might help.

Progress is being made on the government’s plan to establish continuous ship and submarine construction programs in Australia. The government’s Naval Shipbuilding Plan was released in the week following the budget. It draws together prior announcements into a credible narrative, even if some of the numbers failed to make sense. More importantly, we’re still left to guess about the contractual arrangements under which the resulting monopoly shipbuilders will operate.

Reforms flowing from the First Principles Review continue within Defence, with 63 of 69 recommendations implemented. As best can be told, the reforms have been thoughtfully and systematically managed. Central to the reforms is a revamp of the capability development process.  While the new arrangements appear to have led to a surge in project approvals (we can’t be sure given Defence’s new-found shyness on the matter), the acceleration has been achieved by adopting a different tradeoff between time and risk. Under the old system, we expended time to reduce risks. Now we accept greater risks to save time. While today’s challenges justify greater risks in procurement, it would be penny wise and pound foolish now to shortchange the management of the initial stages of the costly and militarily critical projects now being developed.

The nurturing of defence industry has become a key component of the government’s economy-wide ‘jobs and growth’ policy. However, not only is the standard of economic advice going to the government on such matters questionable, but there’s been precious little economic modelling done to substantiate the claimed myriad economic benefits. If the government wants to avoid accusations of pork-barreling, it should commission comprehensive economic modelling to ensure that our domestic defence investments deliver maximum returns to the economy.

Finally, this year’s Budget invited the perennial question: how much defence is enough? Are the plans and funding in the 2016 Defence White Paper adequate in the face of our deteriorating global security outlook? The White Paper was designed to boost Australia’s defence for the perceived challenges of the 2020s and beyond, but those challenges look set to manifest themselves much earlier than expected. I think that we can and should do more, beginning with making the most of the platforms and capabilities we already own.

There you have it, $34.7 billion of spending in just over 600 words.