On 30 June 2017, the Turnbull Government made two key announcements to enhance Australia’s cyber security posture—in both war fighting and law enforcement.

In the first of these, the government announced a new Information Warfare Division within our Australian Defence Force (ADF). The new division reflects the changing character of contemporary warfare and the increasing interconnectivity of our deployed systems.

In the contemporary battlespace, cyberspace is key terrain.

The ADF must be able to respond to threats against its deployed command and control systems, operating on land, in the air or at sea. It must possess the capability to successfully prosecute the nation’s wars in cyberspace.

In today’s digital world, our ADF must be able to control and influence the information domain during conflict and pre-conflict phases. In future wars, it will be the information domain where key engagements take place in support of the application of power in the physical domain.

The ADF needs to optimise its ability to use and access the information domain to deliver kinetic and non-kinetic effects, while degrading the capacity of potential adversaries. The Information Warfare Division will be focused on enhancing those cyber capabilities. The ADF is preparing to fight against cyber adversaries that may attack Australia and harm our national interests. The $400 million investment in cyber capabilities outlined in the 2016 Defence White Paper will support growth of existing cyber operations as part of the toolkit for combating national threats.

People are at the heart of this capability. The 900 ADF positions announced in the 2016 Defence White Paper will create the critical mass of highly skilled professionals needed to match our capabilities in other domains of war.

The development of this workforce will provide opportunities for Australian industry. Skilling and training this new workforce will require innovative approaches and adaptive support systems to keep pace in such a dynamic environment.

In the second announcement, the government noted that it had directed the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) to use its offensive cyber capabilities to disrupt, degrade, deny and deter organised offshore cybercriminal networks.

In April 2016, the Prime Minister publicly acknowledged ASD’s offensive cyber capability when he launched Australia’s Cyber Security Strategy. The government has also acknowledged that ASD uses its offensive cyber effects in support of Australian troops against Daesh in the Middle East.

However, this latest announcement goes further—it sees ASD’s offensive cyber capabilities being used to defend Australians from organised overseas cybercriminal networks.

Cybercrime is conservatively estimated to cost the Australian economy $1 billion a year. In the 2016–17 financial year alone, Australia received over 47,000 reports of cybercrime. Notably, 23,700 of these have been reported over the last six months.

Countering cybercrime is a difficult challenge as cyber groups take advantage of the anonymity the internet provides, using a range of techniques to obfuscate their activities. Offensive cyber capabilities are one more option in the government’s crime-fighting arsenal, and may complement traditional law enforcement activities to respond to or deter offshore cybercriminals. The counter-criminal operations will be conducted in close cooperation with law enforcement agencies.

ASD’s role in targeting organised offshore cybercriminals is distinct from its use of offensive cyber capabilities to support military operations, including its support to coalition operations against Daesh in Iraq and Syria.

Any use of Australia’s offensive cyber capability is subject to stringent legal oversight and ministerial authorisation. All activities are conducted in compliance with domestic law and are consistent with Australia’s support for the international rules‑based order and our obligations under international law.

Keeping Australians safe is a key priority of this government—whether it be making sure that the deployed systems that support our troops are secure, or ensuring that Australians online are protected from cybercriminals.

Cyber security will continue to be a focus of this government into the future.

The Beat

Jakarta unrest

Violence erupted in Jakarta last Friday night resulting in one death (from asthma-related complications) and dozens injured as police attempted to control mass protests. A 150,000 strong rally took to the streets demanding the arrest of Jakarta’s Chinese Christian governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama for allegedly blaspheming the Quran. Although most demonstrators were well-behaved and the protest began peacefully, a group of extremists began attacking police and destroying property after the sun went down. Interestingly, the Jakarta police attempted to appease the protestors by deploying hijab-wearing female officers on the frontline. Indonesia’s federal lower house, The People’s Representative Council, is opening an investigation into the riots and whether local police officials were involved in instigating them. For further analysis on the demonstrations, see John McBeth’s piece on religious extremism in Indonesia.

Big data, big problems

Technology website Recode has an interesting podcast out that explores the implications of big data, including the ongoing debate about data driven policing. Guest speaker DJ Patil, the United States’ first Chief Data Scientist, discussed some of the findings from the Police Data Initiative he helped launch in 2015. The initiative examined data practices of local police departments. Patil argues for more effective analysis of dispatch data so that  officers are given time to ‘decompress’ following high-intensity incidents, in order to improve decision-making when they’re back on the beat.

CT Scan

UN under fire in Mali

Jihadist group Ansar Dine have carried out a series of attacks in Mali over the past two weeks. The al-Qaeda linked group targeted UN camps and vehicles, French armed forces and several Malian National Guard posts. The Long War Journal highlights an uptick in violence in the West Africa region, with over 175 al-Qaeda linked attacks taking place this year alone. For a more detailed take on the UN mission in Mali and its challenges, check out this report from the International Peace Institute.

Juggling threats

While all eyes are on Daesh and efforts to evict the group from Mosul and Raqqa, the campaign to target al-Qaeda leadership quietly continues. US officials confirmed on 2 and 4 November successful air strikes targeting Haydar Kirkan, a senior facilitator and courier, and Faruq al-Qatani, al-Qaeda’s emir for eastern Afghanistan. Several US news outlets also reported that law enforcement agencies had identified potential al-Qaeda plots, possibly linked to Qatani, in the lead-up to Election Day.

Analysts are concerned US policymakers may be underestimating the threat posed by al-Qaeda. Bruce Hoffman, speaking a recent conference at the Washington Institute, expressed concerns about a ‘hostile takeover’ as Daesh begins to lose territory (and influence). Al-Qaeda may position itself to syphon recruits from Daesh and reassume leadership of the broader jihadi movement.

Checkpoint

Eye in the sky

Ron Nixon, writing for The New York Times, has an interesting take on the controversial use of drones for border security in the US. According to the US Government Accountability Office, the CBF currently operates at least nine MQ-9 Predator B drones out of airfields in Arizona, North Dakota, Texas, and Florida. While Customs and Border Protection officials are keen to expand the use of drones to police US borders, a 2014 audit (PDF) of the program recommended that ‘the $443 million that CBP plans to spend on program expansion could be put to better use by investing in alternatives, such as manned aircraft and ground surveillance assets’.

Orban’s headache

In Hungary, a proposal to amend the constitution in order to reject the EU’s refugee quota failed to pass parliament on Tuesday. Leaders of the anti-immigration Jobbik party refused to support the bill over disagreements on the country’s controversial ‘cash-for-residency’ program, which allows foreigners to acquire permanent residency by purchasing government bonds. In a meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Jobbik leader Gábor Vona argued the proposals didn’t go far enough, stating that ‘Jobbik can only support a constitutional amendment as long as it rejects all forms of migration and migrant settlement. We want neither poor nor rich migrants to be settled in Hungary’.

First Responder

Vax on, vax off

It’s been a big week for vaccine research across the globe. On Monday, researchers at the DoD-run Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Maryland announced a new phase of human trials for its experimental Zika vaccine. The vaccine underwent successful primate trials in August. It’s engineered to trigger an immune response using the virus’ protein shell, which is recognised by the immune system despite using an inactive form of the virus.

Strengthening the bioweapons convention

The Eighth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention got underway on 7 November in Geneva. The conference, which occurs every five years and spans just over two weeks, brings UN countries together to review and update the convention in light of technological developments. Analysts have called for a restructuring of the treaty and highlighted the need for more frequent consultation to keep up with the rapid pace of research and development.

Lastly, check out this cool infographic from the American Museum of Natural History which tracks population growth from 1AD.

Australia has now experienced its fourth terrorist attack in two years. As the world prepared to pause and recall the fifteenth anniversary of 9/11, Australians woke to the news that a 22-year-old with a history of petty criminality but no known links to terrorism had attacked another man with a large knife and was later charged with committing a terrorist act and attempted murder.

What to make of this? At one level, the act itself is simple and relatively unsuccessful. The perpetrator clumsily attacked someone apparently known to him, who managed to get away.  Sanctuary was provided to the victim at a nearby business, and members of the public subdued the attacker. Police responded quickly. If not for the apparent terrorist motivation, it’s unlikely this would’ve made the news.

At another level, however, this indicates the impact of Islamist extremist ideology in Australia, and is a sober reminder of the reason our terror alert level is at ‘Probable: a terrorist attack is likely’. Yet another troubled young man has used violence apparently inspired by Islamist extremism, although the details of his particular case are yet to come out.

Based on Australia’s experience with terror and extremism to date, however, we can anticipate the case will gradually uncover indicators of the perpetrator’s association with other extremists online and in person.  Other events in Australia suggest that religion and faith are unlikely to feature significantly in the individual’s past, instead coming as part of the violent extremist package, while a history of violence and association with other criminals is likely. NSW Police Deputy Commissioner Catherine Burns has already confirmed a prior criminal record for property offences.

We can also expect Islamist groups to take credit and celebrate the attack. But what’s there to celebrate? The attack failed. That the stabbing could occur speaks more to the simplicity of the attack than its effectiveness. It’s not possible to prevent every violent criminal act, terrorist-motivated or otherwise. In fact, that the attack involved a knife rather than a more destructive weapon speaks well of the way Australia is managing prohibited items, including the effectiveness of our gun laws, although a more lethal attack remains possible.

The recent investigation uncovering an illegal firearms importation ring bringing semi-automatic and automatic firearms into the country from the US indicates that curbing Australia’s organised crime gangs is pivotal to the fight against terrorism, as well as  other violent crime.

Daesh and other Islamist groups and their supporters continue to seek attacks in Australia—our country consistently rates number three in Daesh’s hit list. But to date they’ve failed to achieve the desired aim, as Australia’s Joint Counter Terrorism Teams—federal and state police and ASIO—have disrupted nine Islamist-inspired attacks.

The story of Daesh’s demise over the past 12 months in the Middle East has seen it attempt to strike out elsewhere, as tragic events in Nice, Istanbul, Jakarta and other places have shown. With the so-called ‘caliphate’ now all but gone, and its dwindling numbers on the backfoot in Iraq and Syria, the group has been forced to take its fight elsewhere. It’s called generically for anyone to do anything, anywhere, hoping someone will take up the cause.  So we can continue to expect that, on occasion, both random attacks and more coordinated assaults will continue to occur.

Two years after Australia’s terror alert level was raised to ‘Probable’, Islamist extremists remain unable to execute or inspire a significant attack. This indicates two important things. First, the message doesn’t resonate as strongly with the Australian community as the extremists would suggest. Second, that Australia’s counter-terrorism agencies and our broader community are doing a good job, though we shouldn’t expect them to always be able to prevent attacks.

Australia experienced its fourth terrorist attack, but there was no loss of life, and minimal impact to the community. What was amply on display, however, was a supportive community response. Members of the public protected the victim, and courageously confronted and subdued the attacker. Police responded quickly and took the perpetrator into custody. This is a story of resilience against violent crime.

Sea State

Take a step into the future and have a quick look at the US Navy’s new railgun, courtesy of The Wall Street Journal. Using electromagnetic rails, the high-powered weapon fires an 11kg projectile at Mach 6, which can penetrate through seven steel plates leaving a 5-inch hole. Currently, the only class of Navy ship with the electrical energy required to fire a railgun is the US Navy’s new Zumwalt-class destroyer. For those wanting to learn more about the ship, USNI News recently published an in-depth feature on the challenges and opportunities of the Zumwalt.

With a new generation of long-range missiles—like China’s DF-21 ‘Carrier Killer’—potentially spelling the end of the US’s aircraft carriers’ time on the front line and capability concerns regarding the readiness of the USN’s strike fighter squadrons, things are looking a bit tough for the US Navy. But it doesn’t stop there—the USN is undertaking a complex prioritisation of its operations and maintenance schedules due to a mid-year review of funding that discovered an US$848 million shortfall.

In a fresh Natuna Islands incident, last Friday the Indonesian Navy arrested a Chinese fishing vessel, the Gui Bei Yu 27088, and its eight crew members for illegally fishing inside Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. The Indonesian Navy fired shots at the trawler when it refused to stop illegally fishing, with the assertive action ‘made to show the world that Indonesia will take firm action against ships that violate our territory,’ according to Western fleet command spokesman Maj Budi Amin. It’s the second significant engagement in the South China Sea between Indonesia and China this year, with the events working to elevate tensions between the two countries.

Flight Path

In F-35 news, the fifth-generation fighter will face another delay in initial operational testing due to problems configuring the aircraft with the latest software. US Defence Acquisition Chief Frank Kendall said testing will now happen in 2018—a significant departure from the second half of 2017. Gizmodo looked at one of the coolest elements of the program last week—F-35 pilot’s US$400,000 helmet—and posted a video interview with USAF Major Will Andreotta discussing the helmet’s design and futuristic tech.

The USAF might have trouble maintaining its minimum number of fighter jets in the future. Released in March, the Pentagon’s ‘Annual Aviation Inventory and Funding Plan’ stated that the Air Force doesn’t have the funding needed to meet the minimum 1,900 jet requirement going forward. Meanwhile, a new piece over at The National Interest looks at the Russian MiG-21 fighter jet, or the ‘Fishbed’, as one example of a fighter jet that has withstood the test of time.

In the latest take on the future of the A-10, this article on War on the Rocks assesses the considerations needed in an A-10 replacement, or the A-X2. US Colonel Mike Pietrucha argues that the requirements are the same as they were 40 years ago—responsiveness, lethality, survivability and simplicity—with the addition of sustainability and affordability.

Rapid Fire

The long-awaited offensive to retake the Daesh-held city of Fallujah in Iraq began last week, with Iraqi forces moving into the city on Monday morning. Located 50 km west of Baghdad, the city was the first to fall to Daesh in January 2014. Taking notes from previous battles such as Tikrit, Bayji and Ramadi, preliminary operations by Iraqi forces have worked to reduce Daesh’s control of the city’s rural outskirts.

Augmented Reality, the layering of computer-generated data on a real-world display, may be working its way into modern warfare. At this month’s 2016 Special Operations Forces Industry Conference, the Harris and Applied Research Associates communication company showcased an Augmented Reality system that allows soldiers to view the battlefield with additional digital information and resources. Optimised for night use, the interface attaches to the soldier’s helmet and displays the user’s current grid coordinates; and uses blue circles to mark the location of personnel and objectives. Check out a video of some of the company’s Augmented Reality concepts here.

The US Special Operations Command and the US Army’s Apache Project Office will conduct a feasibility study of a podded laser weapon on Apache Attack Helicopters this year, under an R&D agreement with defence contractor Raytheon. The lasers will be used as an alternative for destroying vehicles or generators—as opposed to using expensive missiles. A specific timeframe for the tests and the release of results is yet to be disclosed, but we wait with baited breath.

When a few young individuals started to leave Belgium in 2011 in order to wage jihad in Syria there was no sense of alarm. Young radicals had departed before—for Afghanistan, Chechnya or Somalia. The security services knew how to handle them. However, in 2012, as intelligence analysts began to put the numbers together, they realised that something different—and much bigger—was at play. In his first public statement on the topic, Belgium’s former head of Intelligence, André Vandoren, observed in April 2013:

‘This is absolutely the most difficult case we ever worked on…. If some of these individuals come back [to Belgium] with training and know-how, they can present a threat to our society’.

That prediction became tragically real on Tuesday 22 March 2016. The attacks in Brussels—as with those in Paris four months earlier—were carried out by a small group of so-called ‘returnees’. Belgium had already become the target of an operation by a returnee, two years earlier, when Mehdi Nemmouche killed four at the Jewish museum in Brussels. And the alarming signals kept on growing. Over the past year, three or four individuals have returned to Belgium every month.

With the highest number of ‘foreign fighters’ per capita in Europe, Belgium is particularly exposed to this new threat. According to the latest figures provided by Interior Minister, Jan Jambon, 837 individuals were on the intelligence services watch list as at October 2015. Of those, 273 persons were presumed to have travelled to Syria or Iraq (including 80 now believed dead) and 13 were believed to be en route to wage jihad. At that time, a total of 134 were believed to have returned from Syria/Iraq; and 352 were presumed to have radicalised.

These figures are puzzling and worrisome. Until a few months ago, experts studying the Islamic State (ISIS) considered that, unlike al-Qaeda in earlier times, the priority of the group was territorial conquest in Syria and Iraq, not terror attacks in Europe. Young European radicals were more encouraged to join ranks with ISIS in Syria than to take up arms in Europe. In an article published last summer reviewing ISIS attacks and propaganda material Thomas Hegghammer and Petter Nesser concluded that ISIS had not ‘gone global’ yet, as it didn’t seem to have developed a centrally-coordinated strategy to target Europe. But it had been more successful than al-Qaeda had been in triggering ‘individual jihad’ operations by unaffiliated sympathisers in the West.

The attacks in Brussels and Paris betray a shift in the group’s strategy. The more the investigations on these attacks progress, the more connections appear between the two operations. Salah Abdeslam, the logistician behind the Paris attacks, was protected by members of the Brussels commando upon his return. Najim Laachraoui, the alleged bomb-maker of the Paris attacks, was one of the suicide-bombers—and likely bomb-maker—in Brussels airport. The Bakraoui brothers, two other suicide-bombers in Brussels, had rented one apartment that had been used by some members of the Paris commando few days earlier. And more connections continue to be unearthed. Belgian and French investigators are clearly dealing with one organised network.

The Abaaoud network has extensive connections, many of which remain unknown. After the Paris attacks, Abaaoud boasted to a relative that he was leading a network of 90 terrorists that had returned from Syria. Although he may have exaggerated the figure, the possibility of other individuals or active cells should be taken seriously. More than 30 individuals connected to this network have already been arrested or killed. Beyond Abaaoud, officials have claimed that ISIS may have trained more than 400 fighters specifically to target Europe.

The network’s degree of structure and coordination remains unclear, but it’s becoming increasingly evident that ISIS’s leadership has backed the emergence of a Western European network. According to a recent report in The New York Times based on leaked French intelligence and judiciary documents, ISIS created a special unit in charge of external operations in early 2014, which falls under the overall supervision of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Abaaoud most likely was in charge of that unit’s French-speaking contingent. Ibrahim Boudina, recruited and trained in that unit, should have become the first returnee to strike Europe. But he was arrested in Cannes in February 2014, before he could strike. Another former recruit, Reda Hame, arrested in August last year, confessed to The New York Times: ‘it’s a factory over there. They are doing everything possible to strike France, or elsewhere in Europe’.

What does all of this tell us? First, we’re dealing with a much bigger threat than some may have previously assumed. In addition to the threat of lone wolf attacks inspired by ISIS propaganda, Europe’s now confronted with a well-organised and trained operational network. The impact of Abaaoud’s death is still to be assessed, but the Brussels attacks emphasise the resilience of his network. In addition, other terrorist cells or possibly networks may still appear elsewhere in Europe, unconnected to Abaaoud.

Second, ISIS operations in Europe are becoming increasingly sophisticated. The attacks in Paris and Brussels involved more professional logistics, weaponry and coordination than previous attacks of a similar vein. Clearly, ISIS has scaled up its operations in Europe.

Finally, ISIS’s ‘strategic shift’ didn’t happen overnight. It was the result of a long-term plan to export jihad to Europe and to gradually expand by opening of new franchises, for instance, in Libya (PDF). Those occurrences aren’t surprising, and yet, no one was able to prevent it. Now that ISIS has gone global, Europeans should step up their counterterrorism efforts quickly, and in close cooperation with international allies and partners.