Tag Archive for: capability

What are Defence’s core capabilities?

In the last budget, which saw Defence take a hammering in terms of cuts (the details of which ASPI has covered in numerous documents and posts), little has been said about the sanctity of the ‘core capabilities’ which are said to be safe from current and future razors.

Tracking down the explicit list of core capabilities has proven impossible, for the plain fact that one does not exist. After navigating Defence Media Operations and liaising with the Minister’s office (read: nagging for over a week at frustrated people who know about as much as I do), no such list exists.

Instead, we have to trawl through the 2009 White Paper and extrapolate one from vague statements like ‘the Government must make careful judgements about Australia’s long-term defence needs. Such judgements are even more important in times of fiscal or strategic uncertainty’. Read more

China’s military build-up: a cause for concern?

It’s not hard to find examples of concerns about China’s military build-up. But how much should we actually worry about it? In my view, not as much as many commentators assume. It’s true that, at home, the Communist Party and its apparatus continue to be in charge of this huge state and fiercely determined to nip any signs of organised dissent or opposition in the bud, if necessary by force. It is also the case that even if there were—unimaginably—some kind of breakdown in the Party and governmental apparatus, no-one has any idea of what might follow.

And yet the social volatilities unleashed by Mao half a century ago continue to bubble under the surface. Every day there are reportedly hundreds of protests or riots against thuggish local Party authorities, which are often put down by force. The Bo Xilai affair is only one example of uncertainty, disarray and fierce competition within the Chinese leadership in the run-up to this autumn’s changes at the very top of the CCP. Obviously the military cannot remain unaffected.

One reason for China to keep and expand large security and military forces is the misguided nationalist sense that China has for too long been put upon by greedy or careless foreign countries. It is time to assert China’s general power and prestige. (Television recently showed a clip of President Hu Jintao meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban-ki moon. President Hu stood still in the middle of the carpet in the centre of the room waiting for Ban-ki moon to sidle obsequiously up to him. Clearly neither man had forgotten the behaviour appropriate for a Korean tribute-bearer being received by the emperor.) Read more

Graph of the week: JSF, it just grew and grew

This week’s graph is an update of analysis started by ASPI in 2006. Drawing on annual figures published by the Pentagon, it analyses the real cost growth in the projected cost of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).

The first graph (click to enlarge) is the raw figures of the projected average aircraft cost, adjusted for inflation. It’s not a pretty story. But it’s hard to tell from this figure whether this is anything out of the ordinary.

JSF average unit procurement costs

Source: US Dept. of Defense Selected Acquisition Reports 2001–2011

A bit of extra tweaking allows us to compare the cost growth in the JSF with the average for large American defence programs, and with another aircraft program—the development of the Super Hornet—which is generally regarded as an acquisition success story.

This is the same JSF data as in the graph above, but this time plotted as an index (in red, click graph to enlarge).The average historical performance of US weapon programs is in black and the Super Hornet program is in brown.

This all suggests that, while the JSF might yet prove to be a winner, it’s been a harder than average slog so far.

JSF development program cost estimation

Source: US DoD Selected Acquisition Reports 2001–2011 for JSF and Super Hornet data. The curve for the historical average performance is derived from data in Norman R. Augustine’s Augustine’s Laws (1983).

Andrew Davies is senior analyst for defence capability at ASPI and executive editor of The Strategist.