Tag Archive for: Australia-US relations

Editors’ picks for 2021: ‘US and Australia must deepen defence cooperation on climate security’

Originally published 27 July 2021.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has just arrived in Singapore, where he’ll deliver a major address on Indo-Pacific security. He’s the first member of President Joe Biden’s cabinet to visit Southeast Asia. Not surprisingly, China is likely to feature prominently in his remarks, but so may climate change.

Though thousands of miles apart, Australia and the United States have shared unenviable climate-change-driven devastation in the past two years. The unprecedented drought, heatwaves and fires currently affecting the US and the 2019–20 Australian bushfires, which laid waste to an area larger than the State of Washington, are an indication of the challenges ahead in a warming climate.

As traumatic and deadly as these events have been for people in both countries, the impact of climate-driven disasters in the broader Indo-Pacific—a region at the core of both countries’ military planning and strategies—is likely to be even more devastating, with spillover effects on the security of both nations and their partners and allies.

Canberra and Washington have recently reaffirmed the importance of their defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and while China certainly looms large in their thinking, it is increasingly clear that climate change, a threat that will ultimately amplify and eclipse all others on their risk horizons, must feature prominently in the bilateral defence relationship.

The Indo-Pacific is the most exposed region in the world to the hazards climate change is amplifying. Climate risks in the region are clustered around three hotspots. The first is the major transboundary river basins in South and Southeast Asia, where large concentrations of poor people are exposed to the regular and increasing risk of extreme floods and droughts, and already tense cross-border relationships are likely to be further strained by climate shocks. The second is maritime Southeast Asia along the Ring of Fire, where more than 400 million people reside in low-lying island countries exposed to very rapid sea-level rise, stronger cyclones and increasing floods and droughts, compounded by earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. The third hot spot comprises the Pacific small island developing states, many of which face an existential risk from rising seas and intensifying storms.

The pace of climate impacts is now accelerating non-linearly and the world is already committed to significant additional warming (and disruptions) from the greenhouse gases emitted over previous decades. A recent report by the International Military Council on Climate and Security paints a stark picture of the implications:

Militaries will be increasingly overstretched as climate change intensifies. As the pace and intensity of extreme weather events increases, countries are increasing their reliance on military forces as first responders. While direct climate change effects regularly threaten military infrastructure and threaten to reduce readiness, the most pressing security threats will come from climate change-induced disruptions to social systems.

Given these dynamics, incentives are aligning for the US, Australia and their Indo-Pacific allies to cooperate on climate and security matters. In his first few weeks in office, Biden laid out an ambitious climate security strategy in his executive order on tackling the climate crisis at home and abroad. At the world leaders’ summit on climate convened by Biden in April, Austin described the impact climate-related hazards are having on joint military operations, noting that Typhoon Wutip in February 2019—outside of the typical typhoon season—forced the US to pause exercises with its Australian and Japanese allies. He reiterated the importance of allied cooperation last month at the 8th ASEAN defence ministers’ meeting, where he highlighted climate change as a significant emerging regional challenge for collective action.

For his part, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison last year for the first time characterised climate change as a national security threat. Australia’s 2020 defence strategic update pointed specifically to climate change as a threat that would compound water and food scarcity, extreme weather events, political instability and friction within and between countries, including in the Indo-Pacific.

The US military is rapidly embedding climate and security in its regional planning and operations. Consistent with the government’s 2020 update, it is in Australia’s interest to engage actively with these US contributions to underwriting security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. But, given the far greater resources available to the US and the larger scale at which it operates, Australia will have to be selective about how it engages from a defence perspective.

Four areas are particularly important for both countries and present opportunities for collaboration.

The first focuses on building a shared understanding of the physical impacts (sea-level rise, flooding and erosion, extreme weather, rising temperatures and so on) climate change will have on regional military facilities, on training (for example, heat stress), on readiness and operations (for example, increased ocean salinity and atmospheric turbulence) and on the civilian infrastructure that supports these activities. The two countries should identify opportunities to learn from one another on adapting their military planning and operations, training and testing, military estates (built and natural infrastructure), and acquisitions and supply chains to address the climate risk.

An example of a best practice to share is the US Defense Department’s development of a climate assessment tool that is designed to measure climate risks to US domestic and overseas military installations. Australia could leverage the lessons learned from this process to build something similar for its own facilities.

The second is to begin identifying scenarios of regional instability that may require US and/or Australian stabilisation responses. These scenarios should incorporate the likelihood of compound shocks and tipping points that have cascading impacts across societies. The priority should be to develop policy and operational responses to mitigate the risks. Australia has distinctive insights to share with the US, stemming from Canberra’s historically close engagement with near neighbours in both the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Key topics should include natural disasters and regional cooperation for humanitarian response; food and water insecurity; population displacement and climate-induced migration; exacerbation of territorial disputes; and improving early warning systems and intelligence capacity to anticipate events triggered by climate change.

The third area of cooperation is to jointly assess the geopolitical effects of climate change, including effects of the global energy transition, which is likely to redraw the region’s power map. Of course, the biggest shared geopolitical concern between Washington and Canberra is China’s trajectory—a trajectory that cannot be understood separately from the risks posed by climate change. It is critical to develop a deep and nuanced understanding of how Chinese actions, for example, are shaped by climate considerations, or, conversely, how climate change may affect US and Australian efforts to compete (or cooperate) with China in the region.

The fourth area of focus should be on strengthening relationships with key countries in the region (such as Indonesia and Vietnam) and with the key regional organisations (such as ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum) to strengthen their capacity to understand and address climate impacts. This should include scaling up joint planning, training, interoperability and exchange programs focused on reducing climate and security risks.

Australia and the US have a long tradition of defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region underpinned by a shared commitment to building a more stable, secure and rules-based order. Achieving that objective is about to become more difficult because of climate change. It will undermine US and Australian national interests in the Indo-Pacific as never before. As historian J.R. McNeill recently observed, ‘There is no precedent in human history for a global disaster that affects whole societies in multiple ways at many different locations at once.’ For Australia, the US and their partners and allies, this unprecedented event requires an unprecedented response.

Alliance by Uber?

The multifaceted failure in Afghanistan and the AUKUS announcement have generated deep reflection in Australia and elsewhere on the reliability of foreign commitments made by the United States, and on the conditions attached to them. If a fresh equilibrium settles, it’s likely that US land power in Eurasia will have dropped to levels not seen for decades. Air and cyber power now largely carry the stick of American coercive force globally, and a naval arms race is accelerating. The implications are arresting for nations like Australia.

Most of the mainstream discourse here and in the US places the strategic and political parameters of the Australia–US alliance within the familiar frame of isolation versus engagement. In general, notwithstanding quibbles about fears of entrapment, hubris and strategic autonomy, Canberra views isolation as bad and engagement, good.

For Washington, the discussion falls largely within a similar frame regarding the Australia–US alliance and much of America’s foreign policy commitments around the world. The White House is calculating the costs and benefits and looking at recalibrating US engagement with the world. But the broad position is that engagement is an indispensable component of US power and influence.

You could spend a doctoral thesis trying to understand whether that frame captures enough of reality and still not come to a conclusion—which I did, and didn’t. But viewed through the lens of developments in military technologies and concepts over decades, another framing is becoming visible.

What if the age of networked digital information technologies has opened up a type of strategic third way? What if, by building and scaling the infrastructure that supports and delivers network effects, the US has been quietly building what I have dubbed—borrowing from Albert-László Barabási—a ‘web without a spider’?

What if this networked structure could release the US and allies from the strategic and political constraints implied by the isolation–engagement frame: the tensions of entrapment and abandonment and so forth?

At the same time, the US has dragged the rest of the world onto the digital turf on which Washington assumed it had all the incumbent advantages. The advent of cognitive warfare has demonstrated the naivety of that assumption, even as the digitisation of every aspect of our lives continues apace.

Reading Barabási’s work on scale-free networks informed this thinking. The technical definition of the network effect is that with each node added, the overall value of the network increases exponentially. The political definition is a bit of an inside trade: by the time your competitors notice what you’re doing, it’s too late.

The penny would drop later that network dynamics are expressed only sporadically in military affairs.

It’s the commercial digital tech sector, with substantial government seed funding, in which these effects have been deployed and exploited. Look at the growth-before-profit strategies of the likes of Amazon and Uber to understand how it works. Get really big as quickly as possible, make it too costly for others to establish a rival network and instead cultivate their preferential attachment to yours. Then sit back and watch the network effects kick in.

Network effects and the digital information age go hand in glove. The same can be said of Australia’s embrace of US digital products and services, and this applies equally to military and civilian domains. Silicon Valley platforms are at the heart of Australia’s adoption of surveillance capitalism. Californian big tech attitudes to big data, machine learning and automation have had a huge influence on Australia’s digital landscape. Our legislative and regulatory settings have been similarly open-doored, with a few notable bumps along the way and one cautionary eye on Europe.

Now, AUKUS further deepens and expands Australia’s military integration with US systems technology, in line with longer geopolitical and technological interoperability trends.

As the various implications of digital networks become more visible, however, how much have Australians been informed participants in the full meaning of this embrace? What would the answer mean for the social licence for this cluster of technologies, especially those working under the hood of a whole new way of managing a multi-faceted supply network of goods, services, parts, know-how and labour it takes to co-build a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines?

In particular, and never stated, is the advent of automated mechanism design, or AMD, which underpins the way Australia’s digital evangelists think the brave new economy should work. AMD offers almost every sector, from national security to health, education, insurance, finance and retail, the promise of optimisation and efficiency by shedding processual redundancies in favour of automated algorithmic functions.

Think Uber, but for everything.

AMD is replacing, in a staged way, the institutional and contractual negotiation of business with automated auction markets. AMD lives and dies on data, and the massive streams each consumer now emits are sucked up and transformed into the profiles and scores which are its lifeblood. The same goes for industry and every business therein. When somebody refers to the ‘digital economy’, this is what they mean, whether they realise it or not.

Experimenting with, predicting and manipulating business through designer markets is what AMD is about. The platforms are its field of economic dreams. Markets that can be geared to specified ends are all the rage in Nobel-prize-winning economics, and the digital age has unleashed these experiments in market design at scale. People who are still using the term ‘free markets’, and the various defences thereof, have some contorting and, one suspects, some reading to do.

The digital infrastructure we share with the US, the automated mechanisms driving the digital economy and presiding over increasingly large portions of trade, business and resource allocation, might mean we already stand outside the frame in which meaningful discourse about isolation versus engagement is still viable. It seems fair, given demonstrable trends in the commercial civilian economy, to ask if AUKUS might be envisioned by some in Washington as an experiment in a subscriber model of strategic security.

A scary question for scholars of the Australia–US alliance: what do ‘mateship’ and a ‘shared vision’ mean under these conditions? What does shared history, the field of shared human action, mean if economic and defence interests are relegated to bids in an automated blind auction? As Jathan Sadowski explains, subscribers in the digital economy don’t own things. They rent them. Permanently. The platform wins.

The idea—which has risen again in commentary on AUKUS and on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and what it means for American power—that Australia’s strategic horizons still fall somewhere inside a conversation about the US government’s appetite for engagement has become stupefyingly redundant when one considers the emerging techno-politics of the digital economy as currently conceived.

One benefit of studying digital transformation in military affairs is in seeing that the same ‘Uberisation’ dynamics also weighed heavily on the US experience in the Middle East and Central Asia. Resource optimisation was largely what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had in mind when he appointed Arthur K. Cebrowski, the doyen of network-centric warfare, to the Office of Force Transformation in October 2001 and took the US military to war in Afghanistan.

Narrow optimisation functions, whatever they are applied to but especially when they hop across contexts, are dangerous. With AUKUS, Australia’s military, industries, businesses and society have taken a giant step into unknown digital territory.

Does the AUKUS submarine deal compromise Australia’s sovereignty?

Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines—and the decisions by the UK and US to support that endeavour—is momentous. If we’re looking for reliable and considered judgements about why and how it came about, we need to await the work of future historians.

Looking just a few years into the past can help us understand some of the equally momentous changes that likely played a role, some more obvious than others. When I last examined the acquisition of nuclear submarines on this forum in 2016, I thought that a marked deterioration of the strategic environment and a marked improvement in allied confidence in Australia’s technical and organisational competence as an operator of submarines would be necessary conditions. Public commentary on the AUKUS deal has focused on the former. No doubt, however, the low-key but real personnel links that have been built between Australia’s submarine (and wider shipbuilding) enterprise and the US Navy since the 2012 Coles review played a significant role in the latter.

In the long term, what the decision means for the role of our alliance with the US and the way we approach developing and sustaining the Australian Defence Force will be as crucial as the political symbolism. What, then, are the implications for Australia’s long-term policies on self-reliance and the ANZUS alliance?

‘Self-reliance’ remains a key Australian policy dating back to the Fraser government’s 1976 defence white paper, if not the 1959 strategic basis paper. Laden with political significance as Australia’s emancipation from its ‘great and powerful friends’ under Labor governments in the 1980s and 1990s, it made a return to Australian strategic policy in the current government’s 2020 defence strategic update.

Prominent criticism of the nuclear submarine decision, notably by former prime minister Paul Keating, focuses on perceived costs in terms of ‘sovereignty’, ‘material dependency on the US’ and loss of ‘freedom of choice’. And, indeed, whether it represents continuity or a departure from the policies that Keating himself espoused in government is a legitimate question.

The focus on self-reliance arose from the realisation, born from experience in repeated crises between Australia and Indonesia over West Papua, Confrontation and East Timor, that a priority interest for Australia is not necessarily one for the US, and that Australia wouldn’t want to have to ask for (politically) costly US military support for a conflict that mattered little to Washington.

At its core, then, self-reliance was about Australia’s desire not to rely on US combat forces in regional crises. However, our ability to do so was in fact enabled by our reliance on US support in almost every other respect, including intelligence, technology and resupply. Self-reliance was never self-sufficiency; it was ‘self-reliance in alliance’.

The decision to acquire nuclear submarines, which will no doubt require far greater reliance on ongoing US (and UK) assistance in the maintenance of Australia’s submarine fleet, is therefore consistent with self-reliance—and the fact that many of our military aircraft are also directly supported from US stores.

In some areas, we had to develop our own technology because we couldn’t obtain it from allies. But naval reactors, while no doubt sensitive technology, are less directly crucial for operational advantage than, for example, certain stealth or electronic warfare technologies that are locked within the impenetrable inner sanctums of US technology secrets. While the 18-month trilateral study period that has now commenced will no doubt give all three governments, if not necessarily their publics, a much greater understanding of the technological dependencies that will result, there’s little reason to suppose that Washington and London didn’t do their own due diligence about complete show stoppers before the very public and prominent announcement of the AUKUS arrangement.

Often mingled in discussions of self-reliance, but quite separate, is the question of freedom of action in cases where Australia might not want to support the US in a conflict. Keating and others are no doubt correct that the decision to acquire nuclear-powered submarines is a sign of a much greater confidence in Canberra that US and Australian interests in the competition with China closely coincide.

However, the argument here must be with this underlying judgement, rather than with the decision itself—for history shows how difficult Washington has found it to cajole allies into joint action if they didn’t see it as in their own interest, regardless of how closely they were integrated with, and depended on, the US. Washington’s exasperation about the European abstinence from the war in Vietnam, NATO allies’ refusal to open their airspace for US strikes on Libya in 1986, German and French active opposition to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and indeed Australia’s refusal to participate in the Libya intervention in 2011 are prominent examples.

True, none of these events touched on the strategic essence of the respective alliances in the way that a conflict with Beijing would do for the US–Australia alliance—but ultimately that’s an argument for the soundness of current policy rather than against further integration. And should a future US administration be determined to reduce the burden of its alliance commitments, Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines with US assistance would likely stand out as a far more congenial  arrangement than those of allies whose policies remain based on integrating US forces into their own defence.

A second, separate issue arises insofar as references to ‘sovereignty’, ‘freedom of action’ and ‘self-reliance’ imply being able to use military force against Washington’s wishes. Throwing the UK and France under the proverbial bus at Suez in 1956 was just one example of US ruthlessness in this regard. In fact, no country has experienced US power plays more than its close friend Israel, which Washington imposed arms embargoes on in 1967 and withheld crucial supplies from in wars in 1973 and 1982.

But a dose of realism about (industrial) ‘sovereignty’ is in order. Britain couldn’t maintain its nuclear weapons without the US for more than a few months. While France has a genuinely sovereign nuclear arsenal, it never strove for a self-sufficient conventional defence even during the Cold War and remains highly dependent on direct US logistics and intelligence support for its operations in the Sahel. And despite Israel’s development of a sophisticated arms industry, its dependence on the US remains real, and one that Jerusalem realises must ultimately be managed politically, not technologically.

‘Material dependence’ on the US is thus a fact of life for countries that have much greater resources than Australia, and it’s entirely consistent with ‘self-reliance’—as long as that support is something we think the US will be willing and able to provide in relevant circumstances. What the practical implications of this principle are need reinterpretation as strategic circumstances change.

In the 1970s and 1980s, we could assume that the US could comfortably meet our limited demands on advanced munitions and other consumables from its vast Cold War stockpiles. But now, as the 2020 defence strategic update rightly recognised, our needs would compete with—and thus likely miss out to—those of the US itself. In wartime, it would probably be harder for us to get access to US missiles and torpedoes to shoot from our submarines than to find US reactor technicians to service them.

In that sense, as much as the momentous decision to acquire nuclear submarines is a sign of confidence in the alliance, increases the potency of our submarine fleet and remains consistent with self-reliance, by itself it does little to make the alliance and our defence cooperation as such fit for the practical demands of great-power competition and war in the Indo-Pacific. How the decision itself has highlighted some of the shortcomings in the alliance, and how it might help address them, will be the subject of my next post.

Australia’s credibility rests on subs success

What a difference a day makes. On Wednesday, Australians wouldn’t agree to host storage facilities for low-grade medical nuclear waste anywhere in their states. On Thursday, they found out they were going to have nuclear reactors based in their ports. That shows how much the world has changed.

In 2015, when Australia went looking for a design for its new submarine fleet it didn’t even consider asking for nuclear-powered boats, and no country would have provided them anyway. Now we have asked, and we shall receive them from our US and UK partners. We all know that change is being driven by the actions of a country that wasn’t named by any of the three leaders in Thursday’s announcement.

There’s no doubt that nuclear-powered submarines are far better suited to the kinds of operations Australia conducts in the vast expanses of the Indo-Pacific than the conventional Attack-class submarine the government just cancelled. With virtually unlimited energy providing greater range, endurance and speed, nuclear submarines will have greater lethality and greater survivability. They’ll shape the calculus of any potential adversary across the region, and that’s what deterrence is all about. They’ll certainly give Australia more strategic weight and show the US and others that as an ally Australia is carrying its share of the load.

On the downside, that greater capability is going to cost even more. Weight is a good proxy for cost in the submarine world and the new boats are much bigger—that’s before we start adding in all the overheads involved in operating nuclear-powered submarines safely and responsibly.

The government has indicated that it’s willing to cover that cost and Defence won’t have to give up anything from its acquisition plans to find the money. That’s another indication of how the world has changed. The days when we could enjoy unparalleled peace and prosperity for an insurance policy costing a measly 2% of GDP because the US was subsidising our security are gone. We’ve already passed that old benchmark for defence spending, and it looks like we are going to leave it far behind.

Plus, we’re no closer to having new submarines than we were on Wednesday. In fact, we’re even further away since the government thinks the new plan is going to take several years longer.

While the government’s defence strategic update last year said we can’t rely on 10 years of warning time for interstate conflict, we are facing around 18 years until we get the first boat and probably over 30 years until we get the eighth. We’re still facing the awkward question of how we’re going to acquire new military capability quickly in an increasingly dangerous decade.

Eighteen years is a long time. It’s six elections. The Attack class survived one. In the face of spiralling costs and a lethargic schedule, the government couldn’t bring itself to fight in the court of public opinion for it. Parliamentary committee hearings became turgid exercises in haggling over the percentage of Australian industry content in the submarines rather than spirited discussion about defence capability.

In the end, lacking forceful advocates, the Attack-class program was on borrowed time just waiting until something better came along. The government can’t afford to let that happen to the nuclear submarine program. And future governments, regardless of their political persuasion, can’t let that happen. There’s no time left for a second do over—our current Collins boats will already be around 40 years old when they are replaced under this new plan.

Moreover, Australia’s credibility can’t survive another change in course on submarines; after first disappointing the Japanese and then alienating the French, we can’t reject our major ally’s historic offer now we’ve asked and it’s been granted.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have felt unwilling to defend a program he’d inherited from Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, but the irony (one of many here) is that he is bequeathing to his successors an even bigger program that they will have no choice but to boost and progress. It’s going to be a hard grind over decades.

In addition to the submarines themselves, he also bequeathed his successors Australia’s foreign policy. That’s what a ‘forever partnership’, in the prime minister’s words, means.

If there was any doubt about what Australia would do in the event of armed conflict between the US and China over Taiwan or the South China Sea, that’s now gone. The US doesn’t provide you with the crown jewels of its military technology if you are not going to use them when it calls for help.

Are local companies being shut out of US defence construction in Australia’s north?

US President Joe Biden’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific region has brought announcements of big defence spending by the United States in northern Australia. The US force posture initiatives in the north will involve total spending of $832.8 million. Australia will spend $747 million towards the same effort of expanded defence infrastructure and joint exercises with the US. These significant financial commitments clearly indicate coordinated strategic investment in the stability of the Indo-Pacific region, central to which is the interoperability of US and Australian armed forces.

As part of the US reorientation to the Indo-Pacific, in 2014 the US and Australian governments agreed to jointly fund the construction of a suite of military facilities at Defence sites in the Northern Territory. The agreement, which came into force in March 2015, authorises the presence of US forces and contractors on Australian land in specific situations. For contractors, this includes ‘construction activities on, and mak[ing] alterations and improvements to, agreed Facilities and Areas’.

These funding commitments represent a big financial gain for the Northern Territory, providing a means for infrastructure cost-sharing with Defence and a contribution to maintaining a scalable industrial base in the territory.

Under the Pentagon’s Naval Facilities Acquisition Standards (NFAS), US construction projects in foreign jurisdictions are subject to the same risk-reduction ‘bonding requirements’ that apply to projects in the US. Within a specified number of days of the awarding of a construction contract, the bidder must deposit ‘performance’ and ‘payment’ bonds with the US contracting officer, each of which is equal to 100% of the original contract price.

This is different to how the risk profile of defence construction projects is reduced in Australia. In simple terms, the US assessment is based on the company’s balance sheet, technical ability and project history, whereas the Australian assessment is based on the value of assets. This means the US bonding requirements establish a competition barrier for Australian bidders because they have to provide a bond worth twice the contract price until the project is completed. Even without this requirement, Australian companies already find it challenging to raise sufficient equity for large construction projects in northern Australia because the ‘user-pays’ model doesn’t work with the comparative ease that it does in the more populous southern regions of the country.

Big construction projects are scarce in the NT, Western Australia and Queensland. And there are challenges for the NT in particular that preclude long-term socioeconomic stability for local communities. There’s a strong case for foreign construction projects to contract Australian companies and provide jobs to local communities. It would be understandable if US contractors winning bids over local companies ruffled feathers. Whatever the commercial reasoning, why should Australia accept US barriers in a jurisdiction that has so few big opportunities and such great economic need for them?

The good news is that NFAS allows the performance and payment bonds to be waived and alternative risk-mitigation options to be used if the bonding requirements are found to be ‘impracticable’—for example, if they’re inconsistent with local standard industry practices. Australia fits that case both on industry standards and because of the difficulty of raising equity for work in northern Australia.

Yet Defence has confirmed to ASPI that no requests have been made to waive the US bonding requirements by any Australian or US companies bidding for projects.

This suite of US construction projects also has the added context of being critical to the security agendas of both countries, which affects what is ‘right’ and ‘fair’ in terms of where the construction funding goes.

If the US chooses to build defence facilities in Australia to serve its force posture, the Australian government has the authority, and perhaps even the responsibility, to mandate the use of Australian companies. On the other hand, Australia’s security and geopolitical influence and interests are served by a deeper alliance with the US in an Indo-Pacific increasingly threatened by a rising China, and by that alliance putting more US boots on NT defence bases and training ranges.

But this shouldn’t be an either/or situation. US investment in local companies assists Australia in maintaining the kind of industrial base needed to support a range of contingencies. Washington needs to consider that Canberra’s commitment to supporting the US force posture initiative is substantial and may outweigh domestic economic considerations.

The contracts for the first five of a total of eight projects in the agreement were awarded in 2018–2020, according to the US Department of Defense. Three went to Australian companies, with a combined value of $29.3 million, and two went to US companies, with a combined value of $116.5 million. That’s an $87.2 million lean towards US contractors. Or just 20% to Australian contractors.

Or at least that was the case until recently, when a whopping $687 million contract was awarded to Australian company Lendlease for the US component of works at Royal Australian Air Force Base Tindal. This project brings Australian companies up to $716.3 million, meaning 86% of the total value of US contracts has so far been awarded to Australian companies. Suddenly, it’s a very different story.

So, was bonding a barrier to Australian companies winning these contracts or winning the higher value contracts? It’s one of several possible factors.

US companies may have a greater capacity than their Australian counterparts to meet the bonding requirements for high-value projects. Given that there was no waiving of the requirements for the first three successful Australian companies, nor was such a waiver a requested, the difficulty in raising bonds could explain why Australian companies other than Lendlease won just 3.5% of the total value of the US contracts.

If US companies were able to raise bonds and Australian companies, other than Lendlease, weren’t, then it’s reasonable and fair that the US companies won the lion’s share of the other contracts.

Other factors at play here include the extent to which Australian companies are perceived to be competitive, the competitiveness of individual bids and the extent to which contracts were awarded to support the US economy.

The Australian government could consider changing its approach to ensure agreements are contingent on using local contractors for local projects to serve the local economy. Rather than accepting US policies, the Commonwealth could reframe foreign governments’ investments in Australian public infrastructure and assets by setting the rules to benefit the Australian economy.

The US wouldn’t tolerate the Australian government dictating investment policies on US territory any more than the Chinese Communist Party would tolerate Australia leasing a major piece of China’s transport infrastructure.

US and Australia must deepen defence cooperation on climate security

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has just arrived in Singapore, where he’ll deliver a major address on Indo-Pacific security. He’s the first member of President Joe Biden’s cabinet to visit Southeast Asia. Not surprisingly, China is likely to feature prominently in his remarks, but so may climate change.

Though thousands of miles apart, Australia and the United States have shared unenviable climate-change-driven devastation in the past two years. The unprecedented drought, heatwaves and fires currently affecting the US and the 2019–20 Australian bushfires, which laid waste to an area larger than the State of Washington, are an indication of the challenges ahead in a warming climate.

As traumatic and deadly as these events have been for people in both countries, the impact of climate-driven disasters in the broader Indo-Pacific—a region at the core of both countries’ military planning and strategies—is likely to be even more devastating, with spillover effects on the security of both nations and their partners and allies.

Canberra and Washington have recently reaffirmed the importance of their defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and while China certainly looms large in their thinking, it is increasingly clear that climate change, a threat that will ultimately amplify and eclipse all others on their risk horizons, must feature prominently in the bilateral defence relationship.

The Indo-Pacific is the most exposed region in the world to the hazards climate change is amplifying. Climate risks in the region are clustered around three hotspots. The first is the major transboundary river basins in South and Southeast Asia, where large concentrations of poor people are exposed to the regular and increasing risk of extreme floods and droughts, and already tense cross-border relationships are likely to be further strained by climate shocks. The second is maritime Southeast Asia along the Ring of Fire, where more than 400 million people reside in low-lying island countries exposed to very rapid sea-level rise, stronger cyclones and increasing floods and droughts, compounded by earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. The third hot spot comprises the Pacific small island developing states, many of which face an existential risk from rising seas and intensifying storms.

The pace of climate impacts is now accelerating non-linearly and the world is already committed to significant additional warming (and disruptions) from the greenhouse gases emitted over previous decades. A recent report by the International Military Council on Climate and Security paints a stark picture of the implications:

Militaries will be increasingly overstretched as climate change intensifies. As the pace and intensity of extreme weather events increases, countries are increasing their reliance on military forces as first responders. While direct climate change effects regularly threaten military infrastructure and threaten to reduce readiness, the most pressing security threats will come from climate change-induced disruptions to social systems.

Given these dynamics, incentives are aligning for the US, Australia and their Indo-Pacific allies to cooperate on climate and security matters. In his first few weeks in office, Biden laid out an ambitious climate security strategy in his executive order on tackling the climate crisis at home and abroad. At the world leaders’ summit on climate convened by Biden in April, Austin described the impact climate-related hazards are having on joint military operations, noting that Typhoon Wutip in February 2019—outside of the typical typhoon season—forced the US to pause exercises with its Australian and Japanese allies. He reiterated the importance of allied cooperation last month at the 8th ASEAN defence ministers’ meeting, where he highlighted climate change as a significant emerging regional challenge for collective action.

For his part, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison last year for the first time characterised climate change as a national security threat. Australia’s 2020 defence strategic update pointed specifically to climate change as a threat that would compound water and food scarcity, extreme weather events, political instability and friction within and between countries, including in the Indo-Pacific.

The US military is rapidly embedding climate and security in its regional planning and operations. Consistent with the government’s 2020 update, it is in Australia’s interest to engage actively with these US contributions to underwriting security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. But, given the far greater resources available to the US and the larger scale at which it operates, Australia will have to be selective about how it engages from a defence perspective.

Four areas are particularly important for both countries and present opportunities for collaboration.

The first focuses on building a shared understanding of the physical impacts (sea-level rise, flooding and erosion, extreme weather, rising temperatures and so on) climate change will have on regional military facilities, on training (for example, heat stress), on readiness and operations (for example, increased ocean salinity and atmospheric turbulence) and on the civilian infrastructure that supports these activities. The two countries should identify opportunities to learn from one another on adapting their military planning and operations, training and testing, military estates (built and natural infrastructure), and acquisitions and supply chains to address the climate risk.

An example of a best practice to share is the US Defense Department’s development of a climate assessment tool that is designed to measure climate risks to US domestic and overseas military installations. Australia could leverage the lessons learned from this process to build something similar for its own facilities.

The second is to begin identifying scenarios of regional instability that may require US and/or Australian stabilisation responses. These scenarios should incorporate the likelihood of compound shocks and tipping points that have cascading impacts across societies. The priority should be to develop policy and operational responses to mitigate the risks. Australia has distinctive insights to share with the US, stemming from Canberra’s historically close engagement with near neighbours in both the Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Key topics should include natural disasters and regional cooperation for humanitarian response; food and water insecurity; population displacement and climate-induced migration; exacerbation of territorial disputes; and improving early warning systems and intelligence capacity to anticipate events triggered by climate change.

The third area of cooperation is to jointly assess the geopolitical effects of climate change, including effects of the global energy transition, which is likely to redraw the region’s power map. Of course, the biggest shared geopolitical concern between Washington and Canberra is China’s trajectory—a trajectory that cannot be understood separately from the risks posed by climate change. It is critical to develop a deep and nuanced understanding of how Chinese actions, for example, are shaped by climate considerations, or, conversely, how climate change may affect US and Australian efforts to compete (or cooperate) with China in the region.

The fourth area of focus should be on strengthening relationships with key countries in the region (such as Indonesia and Vietnam) and with the key regional organisations (such as ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum) to strengthen their capacity to understand and address climate impacts. This should include scaling up joint planning, training, interoperability and exchange programs focused on reducing climate and security risks.

Australia and the US have a long tradition of defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region underpinned by a shared commitment to building a more stable, secure and rules-based order. Achieving that objective is about to become more difficult because of climate change. It will undermine US and Australian national interests in the Indo-Pacific as never before. As historian J.R. McNeill recently observed, ‘There is no precedent in human history for a global disaster that affects whole societies in multiple ways at many different locations at once.’ For Australia, the US and their partners and allies, this unprecedented event requires an unprecedented response.

Rebranding the Australia–US alliance for the next generation

The security threats that Australia will face in the future will be increasingly complex, high-tech and dispersed across domains. Yet the young Australians who will be most impacted have few mechanisms to contribute their perspectives on and solutions to our country’s strategic challenges. To address this shortfall, Dom Dwyer and Tom Smethurst are spearheading a Youth National Security Strategy. Frankly, the initiative is long overdue.

One potentially critical contribution the strategy could make would be to update the Australia–US relationship for the world the next generation of foreign-policy leaders will be dealing with.

Dwyer and Smethurst contend that young Australians have a unique perspective on security in part because they have lived more under the shadow of terrorism than of nuclear war. They have ‘witnessed the waning of our US ally, in a story punctuated by recessions, populism and now the pandemic’, all of which has shaped their priorities. The implication that future Australian policymakers may not rate our primary security ally as highly as previous generations is worrying but by no means surprising.

A 2020 RAND article titled ‘The lost generation in American foreign policy’ argues that, since 2000, ‘A generation of Americans have come of age in an era in which foreign policy setbacks have been more frequent than advances.’ This is also true for a generation of Australians. To those born since 2000, US foreign and defence policy has been punctuated by false pretences for war in Iraq, a two-decade-long war in Afghanistan, state-sanctioned ‘enhanced interrogation’ tactics, and airstrikes on and support to rebels in Syria.

And then came Donald Trump.

During his presidency, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership it once led, tore up the Iran nuclear agreement, withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council and World Health Organization, and pandered to or overlooked the actions of dictators such as North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman. Even with President Joe Biden’s administration restoring a degree of normality to US relations, America’s global leadership and influence have taken a battering in the last two decades.

It’s no wonder Australia’s future security leaders are questioning the value of our partnership with the US.

The 2021 Lowy Institute Poll, released on Wednesday, asked Australians how important the US was for Australia’s security. Only 30% of 18–29-year-olds said it was very important, compared with 64% of those over 60. In last year’s poll, in response to a question about whether China or the US was more important to Australia, 54% of 18–29-year-olds said China, while 64% of Australians over 60 chose the US. Young Australians moving into security careers may not be as invested in our alliance with the US as in the past, which could mean great potential losses for our defence, influence in Washington and regional clout.

How might this trend be reversed? Australia’s political leaders and officials need to adopt new ways of communicating the benefits of our US relationship to the public. Rather than use tired old lines, there needs to be more cut-through and better tailoring of messages.

We need to avoid recycling phrases such as ‘US and Australian forces have fought together in every significant conflict since World War I’ and avoid the temptation to celebrate the relationship by making the focus of our success ‘100 years of mateship’. This approach is tailored to public diplomacy efforts in the US, where it has proven effective. But for younger Australians, it conjures negative associations of costly military entanglements and makes the alliance sound dated.

Emerging Australian strategists lack a connection with the stabilising role the US played after World War II and see waning utility in the US’s massive conventional military forces. They are more concerned with understanding how technology will transform statecraft and warfare, as well as non-traditional and asymmetric challenges like climate change, biosecurity, geoeconomics, non-state actors and cyberattacks.

To protect the future of the Australia–US relationship, we need to stop talking about the past. Instead, we need to communicate that our security alliance is a helpful modern tool with contemporary relevance. For example, it is:

As they say in the finance industry, recent past performance is not an indicator of future benefit. Even though there have been US foreign and defence policy missteps in recent decades, Australia reaps overwhelming security advantages from its relationship with the US, and will continue to do so.

If the Youth National Security Strategy can acknowledge this and chart a way to rebrand the Australia–US relationship, it will have made a considerable contribution to Australia’s future.

The peaks and troughs of ANZUS at 70

Beyond defending Australia and New Zealand, the original purpose of the ANZUS alliance was to keep the US in, Japan down and China out.

This aphorism reworks its original NATO context (keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down).

Approaching ANZUS’s 70th birthday, today’s purpose is to keep the US in and Japan up, and to compete against, cooperate with and confound China. The balance of the compete–cooperate–confound contest is to stop short of combat.

Canberra seeks meaning from the first 100 days of the Biden presidency as we gaze towards the 70th anniversary of ANZUS’s signing on 1 September 1951.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has invited the president to visit Australia this year to mark that anniversary. Deliver Joe Biden to Oz in the first year of his presidency? ‘No pressure,’ is the cheerful response from Australia’s ambassador to Washington, Arthur Sinodinos.

The ANZUS anniversary in September will arrive as the last US troops withdraw from Afghanistan—an ironic counterpointing of two big Biden choices that matter to Australia.

One choice is the stance on China, as Biden picks up where Trump left off. The other was his announcement of an end date for America’s—and Australia’s—longest war. The US is leaving and, thus, so is Australia.

The depressing take on Afghanistan is that Biden has set the date when the US loses. The binary of asymmetric war is that if you don’t win, you lose.

The positive take is that the US is heading out of Afghanistan into the Indo-Pacific. The tough take is that this is Biden’s first major blunder as president. Australia confronts its own Afghanistan scars, and an army profoundly changed by two decades of war.

As an ally, Australia must weigh the meaning of the retreat from Kabul, pondering judgements such as this from The Economist’s Washington column:

Afghanistan was not only, or mainly, a test of American military power. It was a test of its decision-making and ability to take the long view, including by sticking with a troublesome ally. The Biden administration speaks of the China challenge requiring the same qualities. It has just ducked a chance to display them.

Not much Afghanistan shadow fell on APSI’s conference on ‘The US–Australia alliance in a more contested Asia’. The focus was on the contest now unfolding, not the contest that’s about to fold.

Sinodinos offered an ambitious view of ANZUS going from strength to strength.

But his optimism goes to a key question: have we ‘passed peak ANZUS’ or can new peaks be scaled?

‘Peak ANZUS’ was coined by Rod Lyon when writing about Covid-19 and the balance of power: ‘[T]he alliance might not hold the degree of centrality it has previously enjoyed in our strategic and defence policy … We need to find options that strengthen our capacities when the US isn’t the only game in town.’

The peak question captures the Trump tempest and The Donald’s disdain for alliances (storms battered and shrouded the alliance peak), distilling much that Rod has mused about when contemplating the hard times facing Oz strategy and ANZUS in the age of disruption.

Biden’s emphasis on repairing alliances acknowledges chilliness on the peak. And the ‘peak ANZUS’ insight points to the many ways the concept of ‘alliance’ has to shift or broaden: from digital technology to rare earths to vaccines. The policy vocabulary of government defenceniks enjoys rich growth.

The alliance mountain is being scaled by new teams like the Quad (much hope with the hype), plus ambitious new fields for the Five Eyes club (the US, Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand). New Zealand has blinked at expanding the Five Eyes remit, a reminder that peak ANZUS for the Kiwis was 1985–86, when the US booted NZ. The NZ inside ANZUS is still pronounced, even though it’s silent.

We have passed peak ANZUS as a purely military language for the alliance. Now ANZUS turns its eye to a new mountain range, a fresh set of peaks. Some bits of the vocabulary are hefting more weight, such as the focus on values: interesting to hear a gathering of realist defenceniks continually circling back to the role and worth of democracy in the compete–cooperate–confound contest with China.

Always a reliable rhetorical gloss for ANZUS speeches, democracy gets more space and attention as an important piece of alliance software.

Charles Edel, Global Fellow at Washington’s Wilson Center, talked of the alliance in both the power and values dimensions. On power, he argues that China is the US’s greatest ally in the region: ‘China has created the demand signal that keeps the US anchored in the Indo-Pacific.’

On the software side, Edel talks up the strategic logic of democratic solidarity.

On the future of ANZUS in an era of great-power competition, Edel and John Lee argued a couple of years ago that the ‘comprehensive challenge China poses to the United States might be the only issue that brings bipartisan consensus to Washington these days’. China has a rare ability to unite the US polity, making for an equally rare area of continuity from Trump to Biden.

Speaking to the ASPI conference from the US, Paul Wolfowitz (former US deputy defence secretary and president of the World Bank) said Trump had the right idea on China but strategy was lacking. Biden’s job, he says, is to sharpen the strategy: ‘The new administration understands a great deal of what has changed. The American mood has changed dramatically, and it’s affecting elite opinion even in circles that I would say were much too accomodationist in the past.’

Australia has spent 70 years obsessing about the meaning and strength of ANZUS. Then we apply that thinking about the central pillar of Oz defence to our diverse interests in Asia.

The strategic double-step—bilateral and regional—flows from the geographic reach of the treaty text, with the opening paragraph lauding the desire ‘to strengthen the fabric of peace in the Pacific Area’.

The bilateral/regional double-step was the way Australia envisaged the alliance, even as Percy Spender was busy with its creation: getting ANZUS was the price the US paid for Australia’s agreement to a ‘soft’ peace treaty with Japan, allowing Japan to rearm.

Spender wanted ‘not only the protection which a treaty with the US would provide, but the opportunity it would offer to influence policies and events in Australia’s own region’, Tom Millar writes in the ‘American lifeline’ chapter of Australia in peace and war.

The bilateral/regional recipe means that for many decades, when Australia talked Asia strategy, it was really thinking US alliance. That’s reversed. Today, when Australia talks alliance, the thinking is about China.

Washington and Canberra seek to shift the meaning of peak ANZUS towards the dangerous peaks of Asia’s mountainous new power.

Australian Army’s new attack helicopters must be based and sustained in Darwin

Now that the government has made the decision to purchase 29 of Boeing’s AH-64E Apache helicopters by 2025 to replace the Australian Army’s 22 Airbus Tigers, where does it leave us?

Surprisingly, it’s with a great opportunity to increase Australia’s defence capability. Using Darwin as the Apaches’ basing and sustainment location will deepen the city’s ability to support high-end technologies and train and work with our US ally, a partner that seems likely to visit more and more frequently as President Joe Biden looks at US global force posture changes—and Australia seeks to makes that work in both its and America’s interests.

Darwin sits right near the fulcrum of our region, the Indo-Pacific. And, as ever in world history, strategic geography matters. Being able to project force from Darwin, and support and sustain it out of Darwin, is a simple necessity that flows from this fact.

Maximising Australian industry involvement in defence capability, with the ‘potential opportunities for Australian industry in logistic support, warehousing services, training development, engineering services, and maintenance, repair and overhaul’ that Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has referred to, could all be very good news.

For that to happen, though, the helicopter transition plan needs to build certain things in early, and it needs to connect to the bigger moves in our strategic environment, like the Biden administration’s thinking on US force posture and presence. It’s only four years to 2025, so decisions to guide transition planning need to be made now. And Defence must not keep those decisions to itself—they need to be understood by the industry and other stakeholders that have critical roles to play.

The defence industry in Darwin is ready to start the transition process and make sure that it has a sustainable workforce for maintaining capability.

The Covid-19 pandemic and disruptions to various supply chains have taught us two key things that are relevant here. First, we have to plan for vulnerabilities in extended supply chains by building in local resilience and capacity. Second, it’s shown how adaptable and capable Australian industry is, including in our smaller cities and the regions. It was a small, regionally based mining technology company that produced ventilators at light speed from a standing start when Covid-19 struck, for example.

It’s great to hear that the Apaches will be operated by the army’s Darwin-based 1st Aviation Regiment, but that’s well short of a commitment to basing the Apaches and their crews there. And it’s a long way from recognising that sustaining these high-technology platforms out of Darwin isn’t just feasible, but will grow foundations that enable Australia and our partners and allies to make Darwin even more useful in the challenging strategic environment we know is upon us.

It would be a somewhat ironic outcome if Defence was to move either the helicopters or their deeper sustainment and support away from Darwin, given that last year’s AUSMIN discussions showed the US making decisions to increase its investment and presence in the area through fuel storage, and now in light of the Biden force posture review. From a US perspective, we could expect the question, ‘How is it that we see the strategic role of Darwin but you Aussies don’t seem to?’—unless, of course, the Americans are too polite to ask.

Darwin has always been vital ground in the Indo-Pacific. The defence industry in Darwin is doing an outstanding job of rising to the challenges of various Australian Defence Force units being redeployed south and east, as well as gearing up for more naval activity. Industry capacity in Darwin isn’t all about defence, of course—big oil and gas projects are enabled by our industrial base too, and there’s a growing commitment to and investment in enablers that allow data-hungry sectors and people to operate effectively here.

Darwin has the weapons and testing ranges, the allied presence, and the industrial capacity needed for Australia’s attack helicopter capability to transition and thrive.

It might be attractive for Defence to think that the Apaches can be forward-deployed to Darwin but sustained out of the east coast—and that might be initially simpler for Boeing, which has a hub in Brisbane. The Apache transition needs to get beyond these tactical industry and ADF posting incentives and instead put strategic value at the heart of the plan.

I look forward to these early decisions and to helping Defence and the Darwin industrial sector make the transition from Tiger to Apache a strategic and commercial success.

Australia chooses Apache as Tiger helicopter replacement

This morning, Defence Minister Linda Reynolds announced that the replacement for the much-troubled ‘Aussie Tiger’ armed reconnaissance helicopter (ARH) would be the Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian. Australia will acquire 29 of the advanced Apaches from 2025, at a cost of A$4.5 billion, to replace 22 Tigers. The minister stated:

This new ARH capability will strengthen Australia’s armed reconnaissance force to better shape our strategic environment and deter actions against our national interest.

Defence considered a number of helicopters against key criteria of proven ability, maturity and an off-the-shelf operating system.

The Apache Guardian is the most lethal, most survivable and lowest risk option, meeting all of Defence’s capability, through-life support, security, and certification requirements.

By pursuing a proven and low-risk system offered by the Apache, Defence will avoid the ongoing cost and schedule risk typically associated with developmental platforms.

Given the challenges the Australian Army has faced in operating the Tiger ARH, Defence was clearly seeking a well-demonstrated, tested and capable platform that ticked the boxes for cost, introduction into service and sustainability.

It’s important to note that the Tiger’s problems have eased since a devastating audit report released in 2016. ASPI’s Marcus Hellyer noted in 2019 that flying hours have improved and the cost per flying hour has stabilised. With the Tiger’s airframe still enjoying flight-worthy hours, there’s no reason it couldn’t be sustained in service. Hellyer notes that ‘while it might never achieve the original requirement, in the judgement of the army’s leaders and aviation specialists it has reached a level of capability that’s deployable and useful in the current threat environment’.

However, funding is never limitless, and flight crews and platform maintenance are constrained resources. The army wouldn’t to want to fly and sustain two different platforms. So, as far as the army’s concerned, the Tiger must go. Today’s announcement confirms that Defence concurs with that sentiment, and supports the Apache acquisition.

Compared with the Tiger, the Apache is a much heavier platform and it has half the range—257 nautical miles versus 430 for the Tiger. The Apache’s suite of mission systems is fully developed, including advanced satellite communications and the Link 16 tactical data network. The Tiger has obsolescent radios, though an upgrade was in progress, and has an interim iTDL datalink developed by Elbit Systems, though not Link 16. These are major weaknesses, and the advanced digital connectivity of the Apache is a clear factor in its favour. In particular, the Apache can connect with and control armed drones through its manned–unmanned teaming (or MUM-T) system, a feature the Tiger lacks. Both helicopters have similar weapons capacity, though the Apache has more than double the rounds of 30-millimetre ammunition compared to the Tiger.

Operating cost also needs to be considered. The sustainment challenges of the Tiger drove up operating costs and shrunk flying hours—a death spiral for the capability. Airbus has suggested that operating the Tiger as it currently stands costs A$9,465 per hour; however a RUSI report estimated the cost per flying hour to be around A$27,000 and the defence annual report estimates it’s more like A$34,000 per hour. That’s in comparison to the Apache’s projected operating cost per hour at A$10,567.

Moving to the Apache also gets Australia into a very large user community—including many partners and regional countries, such as the US, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the UK—which has benefits for interoperability, economies of scale, opportunities to learn from other users, and shared logistics.

The acquisition of the AH-64E needs to be driven by the following considerations to ensure the Australian Defence Force gets a credible capability and the mistakes made with the Tiger program are avoided.

First, ADF forces must have access to the capability when and where they need it. That means the Apache needs to be on call at all times to support the ADF, either domestically or in expeditionary deployment. It also must be affordable. The maturity of the Apache as a platform, and its ability to be sustained from a broad and established international support base, means that it is a lower risk acquisition than the Tiger was.

Second, the Apache must be seen not as a standalone or an army-only capability. It must be part of a system-of-systems networked capability for the entire ADF and must be able plug and play easily with the full range of ADF capabilities. The Apache is well placed to do that. For example, its advanced satellite communications and its Link 16 would enable it to share data with and be commanded from platforms such as the air force’s E-7A Wedgetail and the navy’s Hobart-class air warfare destroyers. The army will need to relinquish sole control of Apache to ensure it becomes an ADF capability, not just an army capability. That demands a significant cultural shift.

Third, the Apache needs to fully connect with armed autonomous systems. That means the ADF needs to get serious about a more ambitious and fast-moving autonomous systems strategy that deliver new capabilities later this decade, including for lethal autonomous weapon systems. It may imply additional capability acquisition for smaller ‘loitering munition’-type capabilities beyond the armed MQ-9B Sky Guardian unmanned aerial vehicle.

Finally, the Apache allows the ADF to begin a journey towards future capability acquisition, including the potential emerging from the US future vertical lift and future armed reconnaissance aircraft  programs. Getting the Apache should be seen as a transitionary step towards more advanced capabilities that can complement it in the 2030s, and ultimately replace it by the 2040s.

The main challenge facing the Apache may simply be survivability in the future battlespace. It was originally designed to fight in a high-intensity war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries in the 1980s. Since then, the lethality of ground-based integrated air defence systems, including very low altitude air defence systems, has rapidly evolved, making the use of crewed platforms in close proximity to enemy forces extremely hazardous. That trend will continue, and could soon get to the point where platforms such as even the Apache Guardian will have to operate either well to the rear—thereby defeating their rationale—or risk heavy losses. If the ADF only has 29 aircraft, we may be, once again, building a boutique but brittle capability.

Maybe it’s time to change the procurement paradigm and consider the advantages of the cheap and many autonomous systems over the expensive and few crewed platforms. That would demand a fundamental transformation in our thinking about how Australia undertakes defence capability development.