Tag Archive for: ASEAN

Where next for the Australia–South Korea partnership?

The strategic partnership between Australia and South Korea holds great potential in an increasingly challenging time. The two nations have many common strategic interests and both can rightly claim to be regional powers. However, the relationship remains a relative underperformer compared with other key regional relationships and has suffered from inconsistency. When Canberra’s contemporary relationship with Seoul receives attention from Australian analysts, it tends to be framed largely in the context of the threats posed by Pyongyang.

While some uncertainties remain over the long-term trajectory of South Korea’s foreign and security policy due to concerns that Seoul’s current vision is tied to the Yoon government as opposed to being embedded in longer-term statecraft, the structural basis for deeper engagement between Seoul and Canberra is sound. Investing in the relationship is in both nations’ interests. Building bureaucratic and commercial frameworks for cooperation now would help ensure that bilateral strategic alignment is less prone to future changes in government.

This paper assesses the Australia–South Korea partnership through the three-pillar structure outlined in the 2021 Australia-South Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and offers recommendations for strengthening the relationship. These recommendations include furthering strategic cooperation by incrementally aligning key trilateral formats, developing bilateral cooperation in critical technologies including those relevant to AUKUS Pillar 2, and nurturing collaboration with respect to the Indo-Pacific clean energy transition.

Smooth sailing? Australia, New Zealand and the United States partnering in–and with–the Pacific islands

Australia, New Zealand and the United States should help create an ASEAN-style forum for Pacific island nations to discuss security and manage geopolitical challenges.

The call for a dialogue, modelled on the ASEAN regional forum, is one of several recommendations to improve security partnerships and coordination in the region, reducing the risk that the three countries trip over one another and lose sight of the Pacific’s own priorities as they deepen their Pacific ties out of strategic necessity amid China’s growing interest.

While focussing on those three countries, this report stresses that wider partnerships should be considered, including with France, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and European Union.

The report states that the three countries will have to get used to greater Chinese involvement in the Pacific, even if they don’t accept it, much less like it.

UK, Australia and ASEAN cooperation for safer seas

A case for elevating the cyber–maritime security nexus

Summary

  • A safe and secure Indo-Pacific maritime domain is vital to the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian states for their national prosperity. While there are common objectives, the three parties have different priorities, capabilities and areas of expertis.
  • There’s a long history of multilateral cooperation between Southeast Asia and Australia, among other key partners. In the post-Brexit context and in the light of the UK Government’s Indo-Pacific tilt, London would do well to harmonise its maritime engagements with allies such as Australia and align its activities with priorities of Southeast Asian partners.
  • While maritime security cooperation at sea tends to be dominated by activities, programs and operations of navies, we recommend taking a comprehensive approach to maritime security cooperation that includes partnerships with non-military actors and considers civilian-related aspects of maritime security.
  • In finding a value-added role in the crowded space of maritime security cooperation and capacity building, we suggest exploring UK–Australia–ASEAN cooperation on issues of technology, cybersecurity and maritime-based digital infrastructure. Those are transformational aspects that will define the future of maritime activities in the Indo-Pacific and affect Southeast Asia’s safety, security, livelihoods and regional economic competitiveness.
  • This scoping report recommends UK–Australia–ASEAN cooperation to elevate and further explore the cyber–maritime security nexus.

Introduction: Understanding maritime security in the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific strategic concepts promulgated by Japan (reaffirmed in 2016)1, the US (2017)2, Australia (2017)3, India (2018)4, Germany (2020)5, the Netherlands (2020)6, the EU (2021)7, France (reaffirmed in 2021)8, the UK (2021)9 and others demonstrate the region’s geostrategic significance. While the various concepts differ significantly in scope, essence and strategy, they share one commonality: the idea of connected oceans in which Southeast Asian nations sit at the heart and form the epicentre of great-power competition that has come to define the Indo-Pacific. The region has become a ‘crowded space’ as the long-term and newer actors increase various engagement initiatives.

But Southeast Asia isn’t only an arena of competition: the region—collectively and as individual economies—has agency. ASEAN nations are able to steer competitors and partners towards meeting their own priorities.10 They’ve also been able to steer the global involvement towards political–military, economic, infrastructure and environmental agenda. While their overarching interests converge, the UK, Australia and their closest allies should acknowledge there may at times be divergences in approaches, activities and underlying values compared to those of ASEAN states.

In ASEAN’s 2019 Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, the 10 member states recognised the maritime domain as the foremost area for cooperation.11 However, the exact meaning of ‘maritime security’ is far from neatly defined. Discussions on maritime security have mainly focused on law enforcement at sea, the protection of sea lines of communication (SLOCs), the adequate management of fisheries and offshore resources, and the maintenance of sovereign maritime borders. By and large, issues of maritime security tend to focus on areas of regional security, transnational crime activities, economic and resource management, the marine environment and marine safety.

The maritime agenda is shared by ASEAN and its partners in the most extensive (by membership) security-focused institution—the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which includes Australia, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Russia and the US along with the ASEAN member states (Figure 1). Table 1 summarises the main forums for maritime security cooperation in the region.

Figure 1: The ASEAN Regional Forum members’ maritime security priorities

Data source: Annual security outlook 2021, ASEAN Regional Forum, 2021, online. Clustering and categorisation by the authors.

Table 1: Key forums for maritime security cooperation

a ‘15th ASEAN Regional Forum’, ASEAN, Singapore, 24 July 2008, online. Source: Authors’ compilation.

The UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt

The UK government’s Global Britain in a competitive age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy presents the Indo-Pacific as a region of increasing geopolitical and economic importance over the next decade and suggests that competition will play out in ‘regional militarisation, maritime tensions and contest over the rules and norms linked to trade and technology’.12 Therefore, seeking closer engagement with states in Southeast Asia is an essential part of a strategy that seeks to position the UK as a global actor in the era of strategic competition.The UK government’s Global Britain in a competitive age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy presents the Indo-Pacific as a region of increasing geopolitical and economic importance over the next decade and suggests that competition will play out in ‘regional militarisation, maritime tensions and contest over the rules and norms linked to trade and technology’. Therefore, seeking closer engagement with states in Southeast Asia is an essential part of a strategy that seeks to position the UK as a global actor in the era of strategic competition.

Anchors for the UK’s renewed engagement with Southeast Asia in maritime security

The UK became ASEAN’s newest dialogue partner in 2021,13 in what was a first milestone after the announcement of the government’s ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’.14 In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU, London has been looking at the right justifications for its priorities and for ways to meaningfully distinguish itself from, as well as coordinate where possible with, the Indo-Pacific approaches that the EU, France, Germany and the Netherlands have initiated in parallel.

While the Indo-Pacific tilt is new, the UK’s presence in the region, particularly its maritime presence, is not. London maintained a limited presence in Southeast Asia after the UK’s withdrawal in the 1960s and 1970s in the form of small-scale deployments aimed at maintaining bilateral engagements with selected countries. In the past two decades, the UK has also participated in established multilateral exercises that involve ASEAN countries, such as Exercise Bersama Lima and SEACAT (Table 2 and Figure 2). Those exercises involve a large number of ASEAN states and external partners and focus on capacity building in various maritime domains. They aim to address many issues, including current concerns about regional stability and security and long-term efforts in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). The recent deployment of HMS Tamar and Spey to the Indo-Pacific are examples of the UK’s engagement with the Pacific. It would be interesting to see if it could become a possibility for future expansion of the scope to the wider Indo-Pacific.

Table 2: Selected flagship and regular multilateral exercises involving Australia, the UK and ASEAN countries

a The exercise was established under the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA). It’s been through many iterations since the first Exercise Bersatu Lima in 1972, including multiple expansions and renamings over the years. Exercise Bersama Lima was inaugurated in 2004 and was replaced by Exercise Bersama Gold in 2021 to celebrate the FPDA’s 50th jubilee. Source: Authors’ compilation based on official information.

Figure 2: Key multilateral exercises by Australia or UK with ASEAN countries in the Indo-Pacific

Map of South East Asia, with labels pins on Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and several pins indicating locations at sea.

This map includes naval exercises by the UK, Australia with Southeast Asian partners in the Indo-Pacific conducted since 2013. The multilateral and enduring exercises are marked in orange. The data set can further be filtered for partners involved, key exercise themes and frequency.

The UK’s new maritime security effort to engage ASEAN states has revolved around Operation Fortis which involved the CSG 21 to conduct a variety of exercises in and around Southeast Asia between June and December 2021. This included bilateral passing exercises (PASSEX) with Thailand,15 Malaysia16 and Vietnam17 navigating through the South China Sea in 2021.18

A factor in this effort is the UK’s ability to maintain sustainability and a regular at-sea presence. London’s early diplomacy and activities under the Indo-Pacific tilt still needs to be calibrated. With the new initiatives, however, London also needs to be sensitive to perceptions and even reputational risks in the region. Part of the scepticism about the UK’s role in the Indo-Pacific arises from the fact that the ‘Global Britain’ aspiration has a predominantly Euro-Atlantic focus.19 The arguments also stress the UK’s stronger reliance on the US at the expense of its interconnectedness with Europe.

Australia’s Indo-Pacific policy

As a maritime nation at the juncture of the Indian and the Pacific oceans, Australia pursues comprehensive and proactive maritime security engagement in the region. Canberra’s most recent policy expressions—the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper20 and the 2020 Defence Strategic Update21—have emphasised the importance of the maritime rules-based order and the value of cooperation with regional partners. Australia perceives the maritime domain as one of the key battlegrounds for China’s coercive practices, particularly in the South China Sea.

The Royal Australian Navy has a history of participation in maritime security exercises in the region, including multilateral exercises. Unlike the UK, Australia served as host and initiator of exercises that engaged numerous ASEAN states and other Western allies, for example Indo-Pacific Endeavour and Exercise KAKADU (see Figure 2). The exercises also had sizable scale and scope, including antisubmarine warfare and live-firing training with the intent of sharpening proficiency and interoperability. These are signs of significant commitment.

Compared with the UK, Australia has the advantage of being a residential actor in the region. Combined with an enduring track record of working with a closely knit network of regional partners across different agendas, as well as the recently annualised Australia–ASEAN summit, the engagement from Australian partners has stretched beyond official channels through civil society, research, industry and think-tank communities.

In fact, stability in the maritime domain, particularly in the South China Sea, has been a common concern for Australia and the UK. Opposition to China’s militarisation of the artificial islands, the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia that undermined countries’ maritime rights and freedoms were reiterated in the most recent Australia-UK Ministerial Consultations (AUKMIN) in January 2022.22 Boris Johnson’s government recognises the value of Australia’s long standing connection to Southeast Asia. In the bilateral virtual meeting in February 2022, the UK committed £25 million to strengthen regional resilience in areas including cyberspace, state threats and maritime security.23 This complements Australia’s ongoing efforts in supporting regional security and reaffirms mutual shared commitment to working with ASEAN.

Anchors for Australia to partner with the UK and Southeast Asia

Australia—ASEAN’s first dialogue partner—has had a history of engagement, including naval exercises and maritime capacity building, for decades, including invitations to Southeast Asian partners to join as observers to local and regional exercises.

In recognising the importance of regional engagement, Australia secured commitment from Southeast Asian partners to directly address threats against their territory. Australia’s engagement focus has also shifted from support to countering illegal activities at sea and providing HADR to strengthening regional maritime security and stability. This probably reflects the intensity and volatility of the Indo-Pacific waters.

Australia doesn’t have claims in the regional maritime disputes in the South China Sea, but it has vested interests in supporting the applicability of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS24) and the safety of sea lines of communication (SLOCs) for trade and passage. As co-chair of the ARF inter-sessional meeting on maritime security 2018-21, Australia has overseen a variety of confidence-building, regional support, training and workshop activities on UNCLOS that were initiated by individual ARF member states.25

In the past, Australia has lent a diplomatic voice to Southeast Asian partners, including by supporting and calling for the implementation of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in the case between the Philippines and China.26 Australia as a maritime nation is invested in securing the commercial interests of maritime trade,27 and the security of the maritime domain has also come to the forefront of strategic competition. This is in sync with the UK’s diplomatic support for a legal approach to the management of disputes. The UK has also supported the PCA ruling, as well as Southeast Asian nations’ note verbale to the UN in objection to China’s excessive claims.28

In Australia’s recent efforts to play a more influential role in Southeast Asia,29 the government announced a range of financial ‘packages’ that constituted the largest Australian funding for the region since assistance after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.30 Measures announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in November 2020 included a A$65 million investment to further support regional maritime states to develop their marine resources sustainably and to address challenges, including through enhanced training, technical advice and cooperation.31

In Southeast Asia, where postcolonial sensitivities linger, it’s important for both London and Canberra to calibrate new initiatives with adequate diplomacy and make sure the engagements are sustained for mutual benefit. This is particularly pertinent when the concept of the ‘Anglosphere’ is invoked.32 The following section highlights the complexity of Southeast Asian positions towards UK–Australian ambitions to play a stronger role in the region. Their adequate understanding is critical for sustainable and effective engagement frameworks.

Southeast Asian views of the recent UK and Australian maritime security engagement

Southeast Asian nations’ attention to the UK’s role and interests in the region was heightened after the deployment of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group 21 (CSG-21) in 2021. Although the UK’s military role in Southeast Asia isn’t new, CSG- 21’s presence in Asian waters produced a wave of reactions. During its 28-week deployment, CSG-21 visited some 40 countries and took part in more than 70 defence diplomacy activities across Europe, Middle East and Asia, which included training exercises and port visits. It was the UK’s largest operational naval deployment to Asia since the 1997 handover of Hong Kong.33

While the deployment was welcomed in some capitals, others expressed concern. Jakarta found the British naval presence worrying and perhaps contributing to further militarisation of the region. Indonesia was never fond of the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) established in 1971, which involved the UK, Australia, New Zealand and its neighbours Malaysia and Singapore, but excluded Indonesia. The renewed activeness and ambitions of the UK in this domain invoked postcolonial discomfort. Indonesian strategists are concerned about an increasing ‘strategic overcrowdedness’34 caused by the renewed interest of ‘external powers’ in Southeast Asia. There is a feeling that too many naval ships exercising in the disputed waters may lead to incidents or accidents.

Hanoi, on the other hand, viewed the UK’s maritime activity positively. The Vietnamese government has applied a strategy of involving, rather than alienating, ‘external powers’. Due to power imbalances and China’s growing dominance in the South China Sea, its active militarisation activities and relentless challenge to other countries’ offshore resource rights, Vietnam has actively sought external partners’ involvement and engagement in the region. Moreover, for Hanoi, good relationships are also a function of improving trade relations. Vietnam and the UK have recently finalised a bilateral trade agreement, opening the post-Brexit British market to Vietnamese products and integrating the UK with the Asian economy.35 Singapore was also among the more welcoming Southeast Asian nations, although it stresses the need for a UK presence to be ‘principled, persistent and purposeful’.36

However, regional nations’ attention was most sharply focused by the announcement of the Australia–UK–US trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) in September 2021.

Predictably, individual countries reacted with varying degrees of concern. The dominating concern is that the new security arrangement could be a catalyst for a nuclear arms race in the region and might provoke some countries to act aggressively, especially in the South China Sea. Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob expressed that view directly to Scott Morrison, while Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry stated that it was ‘deeply concerned’ about the ‘continuing arms race and power projection in the region’.37 Both cited commitments engraved in ASEAN norms: the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) in 1971 and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in 1976, to the latter of which Australia acceded to when it joined the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2005.38 They called on Canberra to refrain from adding to regional tension. It was kept in the dark about AUKUS despite the fact that it had a ‘2 + 2’ dialogue (defence and foreign ministers’ meetings) with Australia just before the announcement.39 However, in the following months, after some efforts towards direct communications from the Australian Government, Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto has been reported as saying that he understands and respects AUKUS.40 Cambodia was alarmed by AUKUS and the nuclear-powered submarine deal and invoked international commitments to non-proliferation.

The Philippines produced self-contradicting statements from the government. President Rodrigo Duterte labelled AUKUS as an ‘arms race’, while Secretary of Defence Delfin Lorenzana and Foreign Minister Teddy Locsin both said that Australia has every right, and capacity, to shore up its own defence.41 Thailand, a treaty ally of the US, maintained an enigmatic attitude, making no direct statements or comments on the AUKUS announcement. Singapore42 and Vietnam43 were more measured. Both agreed that each country is responsible for its own security, as long as it doesn’t contribute to a regional arms race. Both are strategically astute and are aware of the growing security concerns in the region and the region’s limited capability to respond to those challenges. So, while they comprehend the AUKUS rationale, they both emphasise the need for keeping nonproliferation commitments, as well as the need for greater transparency in communicating new security partnerships that may affect the region as a whole.

Despite disparities in their assessments of the strategic value of AUKUS, the overall Australia–ASEAN relationship is wide-ranging and didn’t seem to suffer, and, just a month after the AUKUS announcement, the elevation of the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership was announced.44

The fact that there was no joint ASEAN statement on the issue reflects divergence of views internally. This granularity of regional interests and views is to remind London and Canberra that receptiveness to their individual as well as collective initiatives will remain varied. Given those political sensitivities, and the concern that the UK’s Indo-Pacific involvement has been too defence-focused, it would be good for London to consider areas for maritime security cooperation and capacity building that would include more civilian elements of maritime security. It is also the reason why our report recommends practical areas of cooperation—ones that prioritise collective benefit.

It is important to note that, despite Southeast Asian diplomatic narratives, there are real concerns about the fragile regional stability. China’s active militarisation in the South China Sea and gradual control of the waters put increasing pressure on the littoral states. Recent reports suggest that Beijing has fully militarised three islands with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets,45 which undeniably adds to the already asymmetric balance of power in the region. In such a context, cooperation with external partners on all fronts, particularly when the resources are limited and especially in the post-Covid circumstances, should be welcomed.

And there’s no shortage of areas where Southeast Asians would be open to cooperative efforts and collaborative mechanisms. Many studies have defined the prospects and challenges around the application of international law, resolving territorial disputes, maritime deterrence, protecting offshore resources, combating unregulated fishing, piracy, transnational crime, strengthening law enforcement, and addressing the more pressing environmental crisis.46

While we agree with the severity of these issues and the need for the involvement of multiple stakeholders involvement in this report, and through the specific prism of UK-Australian-ASEAN cooperation, we suggest a focus on the nexus of maritime security and cyber and emerging technologies. This is an under-studied area but which has the potential to drastically shape the nature of maritime security in the years ahead. It is related to the safety and security of deep-sea vessels at sea and maritime commercial on-shore infrastructure as well as the monitoring of human and natural activities at, below and above sea level; the security of sea lines of communication, maritime supply chains and increasingly critical submarine communications infrastructure.

Exploring UK-AU-ASEAN maritime security cooperation: a case for cyber and technology capacity building

Our main recommendation for UK–Australia–ASEAN collaboration is to explore the newer and rapidly developing, but far less chartered areas of cybersecurity and emerging technologies and their application in the maritime security domain.

In cyber and technology issues, the UK and Australia have a demonstrated track record and expertise, experience and approaches. It’s also an area in which the UK and Australia can reasonably expect to have resources, drawn from the public and private sectors, to sustain this effort. Most of all, it’s also an area of growing interest from partners in Southeast Asia which are putting digital transformation and Industry 4.0 at the forefront of their (post-Covid) development strategies.47

At the nexus of cyber, technology and maritime security, limited qualitative data currently exists on cybersecurity in Southeast Asia or the take-up of emerging technologies in the maritime sector. Given the UK’s and Australia’s global credibility in this space, and the importance of cyber and tech for the future stability of the region, we explore four potential areas of cooperation: cybersecurity and digital transformation in the maritime industry; digital and emerging tech in the maritime domain; supply chains; and the security of submarine digital infrastructure.

Cybersecurity and the maritime industry’s digitisation transformation

The digitisation of shipping processes and the automation of oceangoing vessels, operators, insurers, certifiers, onshore facilities, and maritime safety and security agencies have surged in the past few years. IT and OT (operational technology48) systems have become critical to the functioning of ships and the safety of their crews and cargoes, and also help shipping to navigate safely and securely through troubled Indo-Pacific waters. That said, given the lifespan of industrial assets (for ocean-going vessel about 25–30 years), much offshore and onshore infrastructure operate with legacy software, which is a known ICT security risk.49

Various maritime-specific cybersecurity incidents have occurred that have resulted in the malfunctioning of critical control systems, in ships and onshore facilities; the exfiltration of sensitive data that’s monetised by criminals, including pirates; the manipulation of systems to allow for trafficking and smuggling activities to occur unnoticed; commercial and military espionage, for instance of ship designs, lading and trading routes; spoofing of navigation systems; and manipulation of identification transmissions.50

The maritime sector is known to lag other comparable industries in its level of cybersecurity maturity. ‘C-suite’ boardrooms still don’t adequately acknowledge cybersecurity as a business continuity risk.51 That isn’t unique to the maritime industry and, in fact, is unfortunately common practice across Southeast Asian industries. However, the potential consequences of cybersecurity incidents for ships, logistics or port facilities are massive and long term.

An incident in 2021, in which the MS Ever Given obstructed traffic in the Suez Canal, immediately reverberated through global supply chains and demonstrated the dependence of the world economy’s on accurate forecasting capabilities.52 There’s little room for errors or delays. The maritime domain in and around Southeast Asia is becoming of greater geopolitical and geo-economic importance, and there’s an increased likelihood that non-state and state actors will try to disrupt, manipulate or coerce actors. With the automation of navigation and the vulnerability of navigation systems, for instance to spoofing, a crisis could be easily caused.

Other examples include some shippers being complicit in manipulating their own IT systems. In 2018, a Singapore-managed oil tanker spoofed its GPS data to conceal from authorities a mid-sea transfer of petroleum to a North Korean ship, thereby circumventing UN sanctions.53 The same thing occurred with an Iranian ship in 2013 off the coast of Malaysia.54 Those tactics are also being used to disguise illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, which is an issue pertinent to maritime security for most Southeast Asian nations.

Initial efforts to boost cyber resilience by the Southeast Asian shipping industry are underway, but they’re far from concerted. In late 2021, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority organised a first cybersecurity exercise involving two port terminal operators and a shipping company.55 In 2021, the International Maritime Organization issued recommendations for maritime cyber risk management, mirroring standing international good practices but with compliance and enforcement remaining voluntary.56

A first stepping stone for cybersecurity capability is access to incident-response resources. In 2018, a private-sector initiative was announced by Wärtsilä Corporation and Templar Executives to establish an international maritime cyber centre of excellence, including a maritime-sector computer emergency response team, based on similar capabilities for the financial sector.57 The UK Government has supported British cybersecurity company CyberOwl to establish a footprint in the region.58 The Australian Government has been promoting business opportunities in Southeast Asia for the Australian local cybersecurity industry, too, although that effort is yet to have a specific maritime focus.59 At DEFCON, one the world’s largest annual hacking and security conferences, a Hack the Sea competition is being organised to specifically test cybersecurity in a maritime environment.60 For now, however, these efforts are just a drop in the ocean, given the magnitude of Southeast Asia’s maritime activity and the lack of an industry- and region-wide approach and apprehension of the risk.

Emerging digital technologies in the maritime domain

Digital and emerging technologies are starting to disrupt conventional business models and operations in the maritime industry. Gains in efficiency are achieved through the introduction of digital components in the shipping ecosystem, such as smart ships and e-ports.61 Next-level steps will include the introduction of partly autonomous surface ships, additional robotics and further automation of loading and offloading procedures.

Access to ‘maritime big data’, in combination with applications based on artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), will help to inform decisions on most efficient routing, precise and reliable forecasting of scheduled arrivals, subsequent docking, off-boarding, load forwarding and reloading decisions, and risks related to maintenance and accidents.62 These emerging technologies also play a fundamental role in gathering and analysing meteorological, oceanographic and hydrographic data. They are also being applied to efforts related to responsible fishing (and combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing), the tracking of maritime pollution and the monitoring of maritime economic resources and biodiversity. For instance, Verumar, a programme focused on increasing situational awareness and fisheries management and supported by the UK’s Space Agency, identified nine groups of technologies that are disrupting fishing and other marine economic activities. They include space-based observation technologies, such as low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites; global navigation satellite systems, such as GPS, Galileo, Beidou and GLONASS; sensors and Internet of Things (IoT) devices; 5G connectivity; and data infrastructure and data processing (AI/ML, analytics.)63

These opportunities for broader and deeper maritime domain awareness (MDA), both onshore and offshore, have been at the centre of ongoing ARF attention. MDA is currently perceived fairly narrowly and restricted to highly traversed routes and those maritime areas under the supervision of coastguards. Human activities, marine animal movements and climatic trends occurring farther out to sea and below the surface remain largely unknown. LEO satellites will provide greater connectivity and coverage, especially in less serviced and remote areas,64 and better AI/ML is already helping to map and forecast movements in the ocean, such as sea-level change, currents65 and pollution dispersion.66 Unfortunately, Southeast Asia is also the world’s epicentre of marine pollution, especially plastics.67

The application of those technologies can also extend to assisting maritime operators in complying with existing international and domestic security provisions, such as the UN sanctions list, and helping maritime security agencies with oversight and compliance.68

Boosting the adoption of emerging technologies in parallel with improving cybersecurity in Southeast Asia’s maritime domain will contribute to strengthening overall awareness of civil and maritime security agencies, which not only supports security operations and law enforcement efforts but also offers new opportunities for more effective forms of marine protection and sustainable maritime socio-economic development. In global technology and standards-setting debates, the UK, Australia and Southeast Asia should consider how to reflect maritime requirements in those negotiations.

The Southeast Asian maritime sector will probably be best served by applications that rely on open, interoperable and secure digital infrastructure, given the sector’s global character, the many and diverse port infrastructures in Southeast Asia operated by many multinational service providers, and the traffic density in regional waters.

In the light of increasing risks of rising political, military and economic tensions in the Indo-Pacific, maritime nations in Southeast Asia should seek multinational and multi-stakeholder partnerships to adequately consider and address the potential risks of digitalising critical economic sectors. It appears Southeast Asian partners would benefit from access to expertise and opportunities to exchange experiences with peer communities in North and Northwestern Europe as well as in Oceania.

Digital technology and maritime supply chains

The maritime sector is a critical avenue for shipping resources and components for the world’s production and deployment of ICTs, tech hardware and batteries. For instance, supplies of critical, strategic or pivotal metals extracted in Australia that need to be transported to processing facilities in Southeast Asia and China. As acknowledged by the Australian Government, ‘technology supply chains are increasingly global, interdependent and complex’ and that there’s a need for transparency as ‘some states seek to leverage supply chain vulnerabilities for strategic advantage and as a possible vector for coercion.’69

In January 2022, due to delays and disruptions in global shipping, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths opted to charter its own vessel and secure continuity of supply to customers through a processing facility in Malaysia.70 Overall, the industry is expected to need to meet demands for faster and more accurate and predictive shipping. As in particular Southeast Asia has been riding the wave of e-commerce71 , major manufacturers will require logistics partners that can ship more smaller loadings more instantly. That requires maritime transporters to be more flexible and agile. An ‘Uberisation’72 of maritime transport is already taking shape which may involve, in due course, a greater number of shippers operating with more small- and medium-sized transporters.73

Onshore, attention is shifting to the digitisation of processes at ports. This includes the establishment of interoperable data hubs where shippers, ports, buyers and sellers can instantly exchange data and communicate across the different transport segments; effective track and trace systems; the digitisation of the paper trail that accompanies international shipping, such as customs clearances and bills of lading; and the use of blockchain technology to ensure the safety and integrity of official documents and compliance with regulations.74

Altogether, these technological applications contribute to improvements in the transparency and security of financial transactions, including through government efforts to tackle trafficking, money laundering, tax evasion, organised crime and terrorism financing.

Security of marine-based digital infrastructure

A fourth component at the intersection of maritime security and cyber and tech is the security of submarine infrastructure. This mainly refers to the fibre-optic comms cables and relay stations that have been laid on the ocean floor and now transport 95% of the world’s data (Figure 3).75

Southeast Asia is not only a choke-point for maritime trade but also for internet connectivity. With a high concentration of fibre-optic cables landing in and traversing through the region, Southeast Asia is gradually developing into a hub for hyperscale data providers in the region’s digital economy.76 At the same time, Southeast Asian nations have been tightening ICT-related regulation and have imposed requirements on technology and connectivity providers that amount to establishing sovereign borders on the internet.77

Figure 3: Submarine cable map of the Indo-Pacific

Source: ‘Submarine cable map 2021’, TeleGeographyonline.

While deliberate disruptions to physical submarine communication systems won’t be difficult to cause, especially when exact locations are known, cables are more likely to get damaged as the result of natural disasters or accidental collisions.78 The Indonesian government recognised that vulnerability when, in March 2021, the Ministry of Fisheries and Maritime Affairs tasked the Indonesian Navy’s Hydrography and Oceanography Centre to map and potentially rearrange its underwater geophysical landscape of cable and pipes to mitigate potential threats.79 For unconfirmed reasons, Chinese survey vessels have been extensively surveying contested waters in the South China Sea.80 The survey areas coincide with the locations of major internet cables that connect mainland China with the rest of the world, predominantly through Singapore.

Another important factor to consider is the increasing imbalance in demand and supply. While private and public investors are keen to expand the regional cable network, the market is dominated by only five companies that provide cable-laying and maintenance services: Nokia Alcatel (Finland, France, UK); TE-Subcom (Switzerland, US); NEC (Japan); Fujitsu (Japan); and Huawei Marine (China). Submarine communications infrastructure has become a matter of geo-economic importance, particularly in places that are contested or have a low density of connection points. Australia, Japan and the US have ramped up investments in new and redundancy cables in the Indo-Pacific in efforts to head off competing Chinese investments.

Given the inherent physical vulnerability of the cable system and its critical importance to economies across the Indo-Pacific, boosting its resilience is an important priority. This includes up-to-date domain awareness, regular and updated security and safety reviews, consideration of the expected global shortage of maintenance and repair resources and adequate redundancy. With Britain’s world-leading expertise in hydrography and as host to the International Cable Protection Committee, the UK government could facilitate and stimulate greater knowledge in the Indo-Pacific of the maritime security dimensions of (dense networks of) submarine cables and shape effective regional risk mitigation responses.

Recommended next steps for cooperation

Integrating cyber and tech considerations into maritime security engagements offers the UK, Australia and Southeast Asia ample opportunities to construct a holistic agenda that will help to underpin regional security, and ward off threats to it. Moreover, given the nature of the agenda, it doesn’t require either a permanent, or even a physical, presence in the region.

The cyber and tech area enables the three partners to start collaborating in practical efforts that are shareable and scalable, are inherently civil in nature, and don’t require full political alignments from the outset. It’s a suitable area not only for regional but also for interagency cooperation.

Three recommended areas for next steps are:

  1. Investigate the needs and interests for a Southeast Asia-focused maritime sector-focused information sharing and analysis centre (ISAC). ISACs are non-profit organisations formed by critical infrastructure owners and operators to share information between government and industry.81 The ISAC should look at potential financial, staffing and infrastructure requirements. Given the current level of cybersecurity awareness and apprehension of the industry, a maritime-sector ISAC may initially require public funding before it can operate on a not-for-profit commercially viable basis. Such a service could be explored as part of a review of the mandate of ReCAAP.
  2. Explore developing a program of work on standards and norms related to emerging technologies and their impact on the maritime sector and maritime security, for instance through the Global Partnership on AI of which the UK, Australia and Singapore are members, and with a focus on maritime domain awareness.
  3. Facilitate the establishment of (informal) maritime and tech security communities of practice on issues such as cybersecurity trends and responses, and the security of submarine cable infrastructure and risk mitigation; and between individual governments’ hydrographic offices.

A further and deeper exploration of operational objectives for these areas is required, alongside a review of potential partners and delivery mechanisms. It will be crucial to work with existing and emerging local capabilities that can be supplemented by targeted UK and Australian expertise and enablers.

Since most cyber and tech dialogues take place outside of Southeast Asia’s conventional governance forums, it’s important for the UK to ascertain its ambitions, roles and representation, ideally in close coordination with Australia.

Conclusion

In this report, we’ve considered the landscape for maritime security cooperation, with a focus on exploring opportunities for new, practical and critical areas for cooperation that equally leverage the strengths of the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian partners. We’ve looked at potential areas of common interest in the military and civilian domains and reviewed the UK’s and Australia’s own national strategies in the Indo-Pacific and their respective national assets, as perceived by Southeast Asia. We’ve also noted that maritime security capacity building is seen as a crowded domain in which many international actors are already seeking to win the hearts and minds of partners in Southeast Asia.

There is a plethora of areas where the UK, in partnership with Australia, could contribute to maritime security in Southeast Asia. We suggest a reinvigorated plurilateral cooperation among the UK, Australia and Southeast Asian countries to focus on newly emerging areas that are yet underserved with attention, resources and policies. This isn’t a one-way engagement in which Southeast Asia is merely the beneficiary or recipient of engagements or technical assistance.

We’re making the case for elevating cybersecurity and emerging tech dimensions of maritime security. Managing the advent of new technologies in Southeast Asia’s maritime operations—military, civil and commercial—and securing the confidentiality, integrity and availability of systems and networks will increasingly underpin the safety and security of the maritime domain, including the legal aspects of maritime borders. Securing the digital components of the maritime domain is of common interest to all stakeholders, which is exemplified by our joint political and economic dependence on the region’s undersea fibre-optic cable systems.

For future steps, we recommend further in-depth studies to explore key priority areas for cooperation and to grasp the diverging and converging perceptions of urgency among Southeast Asian, Australian and British maritime security community groups. Such a survey should look with granularity at capacities, interests and priorities of and among ASEAN member states. A follow-up quantitative survey would be able to demonstrate the views of larger groups of stakeholders—governments, security services and the maritime industry—across the region. This would involve a systematic study that extends beyond security dialogues, discussions and roundtables of known experts and policymakers.

An in-depth study would be able to recognise individual countries’ preferences, measure capacity gaps among them and thus precisely identify the most effective modalities of cooperation. By having an understanding of converging priorities, the UK and Australia will be able to design an engagement and capacity-building framework that’s as sustainable as possible. That way, the UK and Australia could better position themselves as preferred partners of choice in maritime security in the Indo-Pacific.

Above all, we emphasise that, regardless of the issue-specific area of maritime security cooperation, engagements by the UK and Australia and jointly with Southeast Asia need to be enduring and continuous, based on mutual understanding and built on existing practices. Those are the key foundations for a lasting and effective cooperation with mutual benefit at the core.


Acknowledgements

The authors thank Dr Collin Koh Swee Lean (RSIS), Dr Anthony Bergin (ASPI), Charles Brown (Booz Allen Hamilton) and Jocelinn Kang (ASPI) for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the report. We also acknowledge the contributions from consultations with colleagues from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Royal Australian Navy’s Sea Power Centre, King’s College London, and various Southeast Asian think tanks and Southeast Asian maritime and cybersecurity industry.

Other ASPI research staff have also contributed to this report.

The conclusions are the authors’ own, and represent neither the views of any government nor a consensus of the experts consulted.

About ASPI

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute was formed in 2001 as an independent, non‑partisan think tank. Its core aim is to provide the Australian Government with fresh ideas on Australia’s defence, security and strategic policy choices. ASPI is responsible for informing the public on a range of strategic issues, generating new thinking for government and harnessing strategic thinking internationally. ASPI’s sources of funding are identified in our Annual Report, online at www.aspi.org.au and in the acknowledgements section of individual publications. ASPI remains independent in the content of the research and in all editorial judgements. It is incorporated as a company, and is governed by a Council with broad membership. ASPI’s core values are collegiality, originality & innovation, quality & excellence and independence.

ASPI’s publications—including this paper—are not intended in any way to express or reflect the views of the Australian Government. The opinions and recommendations in this paper are published by ASPI to promote public debate and understanding of strategic and defence issues. They reflect the personal views of the author(s) and should not be seen as representing the formal position of ASPI on any particular issue.

Important Disclaimer

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in relation to the subject matter covered. It is provided with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering any form of professional or other advice or services. No person should rely on the contents of this publication without first obtaining advice from a qualified professional.

© The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2022

This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, educational institutions (including schools, independent colleges, universities and TAFEs) are granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for educational purposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge.

First published March 2022. Cover image: Abstract low poly 3d cargo ship/vectorstock.com

Funding

Funding support for this report was provided via a grant from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office through the UK High Commission in Canberra through a competitive grant proposal bidding process.

  1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ‘Foreign policy: Free and open Indo-Pacific’, Japanese Government, 2022, online. ↩︎
  2. The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, online. ↩︎
  3. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, Australian Government, 2017, online. ↩︎
  4. Ministry of External Affairs, ‘Prime Minister’s keynote address at Shangri-La Dialogue’, Indian Government, 1 June 2018, online. ↩︎
  5. Federal Foreign Office, Policy guidelines for the Indo-Pacific region, German Government, September 2020, online. ↩︎

  6. Indo-Pacific: Guidelines for strengthening Dutch and EU cooperation with partners in Asia, Netherlands Government, 2020, online. ↩︎
  7. EU Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, European Union, 2021, online. ↩︎
  8. ‘France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy’, French Embassy, Canberra, 2021, online. ↩︎
  9. Louisa Brooke-Holland, Integrated review 2021: The defence tilt to the Indo-Pacific, UK Parliament, October, 2021, online. ↩︎
  10. Huong Le Thu, ‘Southeast Asia: Between asserting agency and muddling through’, in Ashley J Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, Michael Wills (eds), Strategic Asia 2021–2022: Navigating tumultuous times in the Indo-Pacific, National Bureau of Asian Research, 11 January 2022, online. ↩︎
  11. ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific 2019, ASEAN, 23 June 2019, online. ↩︎

Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s crisis: And the implications for Australia

The rapidly unfolding Myanmar crisis is presenting Southeast Asia with one of its most severe security and stability threats in the past three decades. While the region is certainly familiar with military coups and violent changes of government, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar carries risks far more acute than previous coups d’etat in the region.

One of them is the risk to the sustained modus operandi of the region’s key institution—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The outcome of ASEAN’s involvement in the Myanmar crisis is consequential not only for the Myanmar people, but also for the association’s ability to credibly lead efforts to preserve peace and security in the region into the future.

In this report, we assess the security situation in Myanmar, ASEAN’s collective response and the individual roles of key ASEAN member states in the mediating process. We focus on the effect that the Myanmar crisis has on the overall ASEAN political and security situation, and highlight Indonesia’s leadership, and limitations, in the process. We also detail the legal instruments and responsibility of ASEAN—in the form of the ASEAN Charter—to uphold the rule of law. The report concludes with some policy implications for the wider region, particularly Australia.

Southeast Asian perceptions of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad)—an informal security framework between Japan, the US, Australia and India—has been facing some perception challenges, including a common view that it antagonises China and challenges ASEAN, and hence would enjoy little regional support.

But there has been little empirical data to back such views. This study tested perceptions of the Quad among the Southeast Asian policy and expert communities through a quantitative survey. It collected 276 answers from staff from government agencies, militaries, academia, think tanks, businesses, media and university students from all 10 ASEAN countries.

This is the first and so far the only comprehensive study of Southeast Asian perceptions of the Quad. Using original data, it provides an accurate overview of regional sentiments and informs Southeast Asians about the existing gaps between their views. Based on the findings, this report suggests recommendations for Quad members on how to develop the Quad initiative in ways that complement regional cooperation. It also provides recommendations for the ASEAN countries on how they should further engage with the Quad for common benefit.

Southeast Asian perceptions of the Quad are diverse. There’s no such thing as one ‘ASEAN view’. Some findings confirm expectations; for example, Vietnamese and Filipino respondents were most supportive, while Indonesian respondents were among the most sceptical or undecided. Surprisingly, Singaporean respondents are least enthusiastic about the Quad.

Still, a majority opinion (57%) across the ASEAN respondents supports the Quad initiative as having a useful role in regional security; only 10% of respondents oppose it, while 39% indicate they would support it in future if the Quad successfully materialises.

A plurality (46%) of respondents think that the Quad complements existing ASEAN-centred regional security frameworks. Those who worry about the Quad challenging (18%) or sidelining (17%) ASEAN centrality are a minority; another 13% think that the Quad has no effect on ASEAN centrality whatsoever.

There are reservations that the ‘anti-China’ nature of the Quad is dangerous (19%), but more think that ‘being an anti-China bulwark’ is necessary (35%). In total, 54% of respondents see the Quad as an ‘anti-China bulwark’, 28% think that it shouldn’t be perceived that way, and 15% think that, while the Quad isn’t anti-China, it projects itself as anti-China.

The ambivalence of the views is visible in the nearly equal proportions of respondents who believed the Quad would, and those who thought it wouldn’t, affect their country’s security. Thirty-two per cent of respondents welcome the Quad and believe that their countries will be safer because of it, while 31% believe it could raise tensions in the region but won’t affect their countries.

Most questions about the Quad received diverse responses, and few issues got a majority answer. An important exception, with an overwhelming positive response of 69%, was that the Quad is expected to enforce the rules-based order (for example, the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling on territorial claims in the South China Sea). This particular issue gained the highest agreement among all the respondents.


© The Australian Strategic Policy Institute Limited 2018

This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission.

Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. Notwithstanding the above, educational institutions (including schools, independent colleges, universities, and TAFEs) are granted permission to make copies of copyrighted works strictly for educational purposes without explicit permission from ASPI and free of charge.

First published October 2018

Sydney Recommendations – Practical Futures for Cyber Confidence Building in the ASEAN region

In the lead-up to the ASEAN–Australia Special Summit, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre launched an initiative with partners across the region to develop the Sydney
Recommendations on Practical Futures for Cyber Confidence Building in the ASEAN region.

These recommendations build on the extensive work undertaken by the think-tank community in the region starting in the early 2010s.

Mice that Roar

This report argues that over the past five years, there’s been an increase in coastguard and maritime border response capabilities across much of ASEAN. ASEAN states have primarily focused their new capabilities on enhancing physical presence patrols and response within their respective exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Coastguards have become important strategic cushions between navies in ASEAN.

Underpinning this regional maritime strategic trend is an assumption that coastguard vessels are less threatening, in terms of their potential use of force, to the captains and crews of other nations’ vessels during unplanned encounters at sea. It isn’t all plain sailing for this model. Emboldening fishing fleets, coastguards or militias by removing the risk of a military response to aggressive actions in others’ jurisdictions may well be a negative for the maritime security of ASEAN nations.

The report highlights an opportunity for Australia to cooperate and collaborate with partners across the region on surveillance, maritime domain awareness (MDA) and maritime patrols.

Australia’s strategic relationship with the US ensures that Chinese leaders pay close attention to its diplomatic and military activities in ASEAN. The promotion of greater regional coastguard cooperation won’t deeply offend Chinese Government sensitivities, it will attract Chinese Government attention because it is against the Chinese state’s preferred bilateral engagement model, and because it may be effective in creating regional cohesion in dealing with maritime security issues. These efforts will send a clear message to Beijing that the region is taking measures to protect the sovereignty of its waters.

Tag Archive for: ASEAN

Australian policy does need more Asia—more Southeast Asia

The international challenge confronting Australia today is unparalleled, at least since the 1940s. It requires what the late Brendan Sargeant, a defence analyst, called strategic imagination. We need more than shrewd economic manoeuvring and a tough assessment of defence capacity. Despite immediate election concerns, this is a time to question long-established assumptions about how Australia is positioned in the world. The Trump chaos, for all the damage it is bringing, could help Australia develop a fresh international identity.

Eight decades ago, between the fall of Singapore and the 1951 ANZUS Treaty, Australians could no longer put trust in the British Empire. Also, despite America’s large contribution to the Pacific War, there was no certainty of a United States security guarantee for the future. Analysts on both sides of politics increasingly began to think about a regional identity for a more independent—potentially more lonely—Australia.

The American alliance then allowed Australians to postpone such an accommodation with Asia. Now, in the words of Heather Smith, speaking at a 1 April security forum convened by Malcolm Turnbull, the post-Cold War order has collapsed ‘along with the norms and values that have underpinned the US-Australia relationship’.

How to imagine today a more autonomous Australia? Escalating British, European and Canadian engagement has obvious advantages—but this can reinforce Australia’s otherness in our region. Gareth Evans is right to insist we have ‘more Asia’—but what does that really entail? What is the roadmap for a deeper Asian engagement? Japan will continue to be important—but an explicit tightening of security relations with Japan delivers to China an unnecessarily provocative message. Australia’s Indian engagement will grow, but may present a similar problem.

The obvious strategy for achieving ‘more Asia’ is to capitalise on the relationship in which both sides of Australian politics have invested most heavily: Southeast Asia.

This is not to say that individual Southeast Asian countries or their regional organisation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), offer Australia the type of economic or military advantage once gained from the United States, although ASEAN as a grouping is our second-largest trading partner and has a GDP larger than India.

Nor can we be confident we share values with Southeast Asians—or that we will not sometimes have tension with one ASEAN country or another. There has also been frustration with ASEAN institutions when it comes to getting things done.

Our ASEAN priority, however, should not just focus on practical endeavours. In identifying ASEAN as the framework for achieving more Asia, what matters is that their institutions are inclusive—embracing all major players in the region. In an increasingly fluid environment, they offer an established arena for engaging not just with Southeast Asian countries but also with Japan, India and South Korea—as well as China. In these institutions—sometimes on the sidelines of meetings—Australia can build bilateral or mini-lateral endeavours without provoking one major power or another.

There are no serious downsides to this ASEAN emphasis. Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and others recognise Australia’s long commitment to this part of Asia. Our early support for Southeast Asian nationalist movements, our status as ASEAN’s first Dialogue Partner, our founding membership of ASEAN-led institutions (the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit, the ambitious Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade agreement, our vigorous practical cooperation across the region and our government’s declarations supporting ‘ASEAN centrality’—this record also gives Australia a claim to ASEAN’s continuing attention.

What we must avoid is claiming a leadership role. Australia’s long-term closeness to the United States sometimes enhanced our regional authority—and added to the prestige of our liberal democratic values. We need not back away from such values—and can expect they will still attract respect in parts of Asia. There is also reason for pride in the part Australia has played—certainly from the period of the founding of the United Nations—in developing an international rules system. The new era, however, will demand patient negotiation with non-liberal perspectives.

Although the liberal rules-based order faces resistance in Asia, there is nevertheless a strong commitment to rules and principles that facilitate international interaction. In a genuinely multipolar world, ASEAN’s consensus-seeking institutions provide an ideal forum for the type of give-and-take deliberation—negotiating across different normative frameworks—that will be a feature of rules development.

Inter-state relations more generally will require openness to ‘Asian values’. For instance, we tend to see Southeast Asians and others as hedging when they are unwilling to align with one power or another—and ignore the claim to a ‘principled pragmatism’ (as Malaysia often states). When Southeast Asian countries refuse to join an alliance, or to promote one ideological position rather than another—or when they accept the need to operate in a China-centred regional hierarchy—they are influenced by a heritage of foreign relations principles often different from Western traditions.

Working alongside our Asian neighbours—putting our point of view, of course, and acting where possible as a bridge to the United States and European states—Australians may also learn from Asian experience in handling major power ambitions.

Trump’s chaotic tariff policies provide an immediate opportunity. The whole region faces a common threat. With ASEAN leaders meeting to discuss a coordinated response, Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong speaks of strengthening ‘our network of partnership with like-minded countries’. ASEAN will reach out to China, Japan and South Korea—already indicating some willingness to set aside bitter rivalries between them. As a middle power with strong experience in trade negotiations (including through the Cairns Group)—and seven decades of intimate familiarity with America—Australia has much to contribute to Wong’s networking.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently called Canada ‘the most European of non-European countries’. Using the ASEAN framework to engage in tariffs, rules and other deliberations, could help build Australia’s post-America identity as the most Asian of non-Asian countries.

Myanmar’s scam centres demand ASEAN-Australia collaboration

China’s crackdown on cyber-scam centres on the Thailand-Myanmar border may cause a shift away from Mandarin, towards English-speaking victims. Scammers also used the 28 March earthquake to scam international victims.

Australia, with its proven capabilities to disrupt cybercrime networks, should support the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ efforts to tackle this kind of transnational organised crime. Doing so would also help ease pressure on Australian policing and cyber capabilities, which deal with thousands of cybercrime reports each year.

Myanmar’s border regions, particularly around Myawaddy, are infamous for scam compounds. Victims—often lured by fake job ads on social media—are trafficked to these sites. Upon arrival, they’re forced to hand over their IDs and mobile phones, and are then forced to engage in love scams, crypto fraud, money laundering and illegal online gambling. The United Nations estimates around 120,000 people are trapped in Myanmar alone, with another 100,000 in Cambodia and unknown numbers in Laos, the Philippines and Thailand.

For years, Chinese authorities ignored this criminal enterprise. But when Chinese actor Wang Xing disappeared, a viral plea from his girlfriend on microblogging site Weibo triggered action. Within hours, Xing was released, sparking outcry on the social media from families of 1800 missing Chinese nationals believed to have been trafficked.

Xing’s rescue highlights the power of grassroots mobilisation but also exposes the systemic law enforcement failures on the border. While Nay Pyi Daw tolerates these scam centres, the operations persist due to selective enforcement from authorities in neighbouring China and Thailand, leaving the power networks behind them unscathed.

After public pressure, Chinese President Xi Jinping took action and met with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in February. Following the high-level meeting, Thailand immediately cut electricity, internet and gas supplies to five towns known for harbouring cyber-scam centres. However, these efforts remain largely performative as Myanmar junta-allied actors also position themselves as part of the crackdown, such as Saw Chit Thu‘s  Border Guard Force, despite its complicity in scam compounds. While more than 7000 people have been released, far more remain trapped. Syndicates continue to evolve, securing alternative electricity sources, switching to Starlink satellite connections, and potentially relocating their operations elsewhere.

China’s shifting approach towards Myanmar complicates matters. Its increased support for Myanmar’s military regime pushed the cyber-scam syndicates into areas controlled by the junta and its allied ethnic militias. Criminal activities accelerated and diverted their recruitment to English-speaking targets.

China’s response is also inherently reactionary and limited, doing little for victims in other countries such as Cambodia and Laos. While China’s diplomatic influence has led to some progress, victims from other countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, lack similar leverage to pressure host governments.

This calls for a more holistic and coordinated regional approach. It should focus on preventing modern slavery and combatting cyber and cyber-enabled crimes, and should include ASEAN as well as partners such as Australia.

ASEAN has a rudimentary structure to facilitate intra-regional intelligence sharing, joint investigations and coordinated rescue operations. ASEANAPOL and INTERPOL’s Singapore-based operations support coordination among regional police forces. While this has led to many arrests and seizures of assets, the overall effort falls short of dismantling criminal enterprises.

Last year’s launch of the ASEAN Computer Emergency Response Team was a positive move, strengthening the region’s ability to address cybersecurity incidents. But efforts to dismantle cyber-scam networks in Myanmar remain limited due to protection from junta-backed militias.

This situation should prompt greater Australian involvement. Australia’s offensive cyber capabilities helped disrupt cyber-crime networks, such as Lockbit and ZServers. In November, the Australian Federal Police, working with Philippine authorities, took down a major scam syndicate in Manila under Operation Firestorm, seizing digital evidence to trace Australian victims and disrupt global fraud operations.

With thousands of Australians falling victim to scam operations, Australia’s cybercrime-fighting efforts should prioritise taking down overseas scam networks. This could be done by strengthening skills and capabilities of cyber detectives and offensive cyber operators in the region, for instance through capacity-building workshops and mission-specific training. However, the government should also be prepared to use its political and economic heft to pressure host nations that allow such criminal activities, using tools such as ministerial interventions, attributions and cyber sanctions.

The Fifth ASEAN Digital Ministers’ meeting earlier this year stressed the need for international collaboration on implementing additional measures to prevent cross-border scams. While the roles of China, Japan, the United States and Russia were mentioned, Australia is not yet engaged. This is an opportunity for Australia to increase its collaboration with ASEAN, especially in the wake of the recent Myanmar earthquake, which scammers exploited through fake clickbait donations and malicious links.

Australia has committed to provide $2 million for Myanmar’s disaster response. Yet, targeted initiatives to address cyber scams would bolster defences against transnational cybercrime and create a safer global environment.

Trump could make Asia more united

US President Donald Trump has raised the spectre of economic and geopolitical turmoil in Asia. While individual countries have few options for pushing back against Trump’s transactional diplomacy, protectionist trade policies and erratic decision-making, a unified region has a fighting chance.

The challenges are formidable. Trump’s crude, bullying approach to long-term allies is casting serious doubt on the viability of the United States’ decades-old security commitments, on which many Asian countries depend. Worse, the US’s treaty allies (Japan, South Korea and the Philippines) and its strategic partner (Taiwan) fear that Trump could actively undermine their security, such as by offering concessions to China or North Korea.

Meanwhile, Trump’s aggressive efforts to reshape the global trading system, including by pressuring foreign firms to move their manufacturing to the US, have disrupted world markets and generated considerable policy uncertainty. This threatens to undermine growth and financial stability in Asian economies, particularly those running large trade surpluses with the US—such as China, India, Japan, South Korea and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Currency depreciation may offset some of the tariffs’ impact. But if the Trump administration follows through with its apparent plans to weaken the US dollar, surplus countries will lose even this partial respite, and their trade balances will deteriorate. While some might be tempted to implement retaliatory tariffs, this would only compound the harm to their export-driven industries.

Acting individually, Asian countries have limited leverage not only in trade negotiations with the US, but also in broader economic or diplomatic disputes. But by strengthening strategic and security cooperation—using platforms such as ASEAN, ASEAN+3 (with China, Japan and South Korea), and the East Asia Summit—they can build a buffer against US policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. And by deepening trade and financial integration, they can reduce their dependence on the US market and improve their economies’ resilience.

One priority should be to diversify trade partnerships through multilateral free-trade agreements. This means, for starters, strengthening the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership—which includes Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Britain and Vietnam—such as by expanding its ranks. China and South Korea have expressed interest in joining.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership—comprising the 10 ASEAN economies, plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea—should also be enhanced, through stronger trade and investment rules and, potentially, the addition of India. Given the Asia-Pacific’s tremendous economic dynamism, more robust regional trade arrangements could serve as a powerful counterbalance to US protectionism.

Asia has other options to bolster intra-regional trade. China, Japan and South Korea should resume negotiations for their own free-trade agreement. Japan and South Korea are a natural fit, given their geographic proximity and shared democratic values. The inclusion of China raises some challenges—owing not least to its increasingly aggressive military posture in the region— but they are worth confronting, given China’s massive market and advanced technological capabilities. With the US putting economic self-interest ahead of democratic principles, Asian countries cannot afford to eschew pragmatism for ideology.

Beyond trade, Asia must build on the cooperation that began after the 2008 global financial crisis. The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation, which provides liquidity support to its member countries (the ASEAN+3) during crises, should be strengthened. Moreover, Asian central banks and finance ministries should work together to build more effective financial-stability frameworks—robust crisis-management arrangements, coordinated policy responses and clear communication—to stabilise currency markets and financial systems during episodes of external volatility.

Trump is not the only reason why Asia should deepen cooperation. The escalating trade and technology war between the US and China is threatening to divide the world into rival economic blocs, which would severely disrupt global trade and investment. But there is still time to avoid this outcome, by building a multipolar system comprising multiple economic blocs with overlapping memberships. By fostering economic integration, within the region and beyond, Asian countries would be laying the groundwork for such an order.

In an age of geoeconomic fragmentation, Asian countries could easily fall victim to the whims of great powers. But by strengthening trade partnerships, reinforcing financial cooperation, enhancing strategic collaboration and building economic resilience, they can take control over their futures and position Asia as a leading architect of a reconfigured global economy.

ASEAN cyber norms need broad stakeholder engagement

As Malaysia assumes the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2025, the government wants to make its mark on the region’s cybersecurity cooperation framework. Malaysia is keen to develop the third iteration of the cybersecurity cooperation strategy, which will guide ASEAN’s collaborative efforts in cyberspace. But to be truly effective, cooperation must remain a multistakeholder affair.

The landmark release of ASEAN’s cyber norms checklist in October last year, championed by Malaysia and Singapore, translated the United Nations’ eleven norms of responsible state behaviour in cyberspace into practical steps. ASEAN member states now have a structured way to implement cyber norms, focussing on political endorsements and safeguarding critical infrastructure.

However, the real challenge isn’t adoption; it’s implementation. Making these principles work in the real world requires more than government buy-in; it demands broad cooperation across sectors and countries.

As I have argued, one of the biggest hurdles is embedding these norms into the operations of defence, law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Southeast Asia’s cyber capabilities are expanding, but transparency remains a sticking point. Militaries, intelligence agencies and law enforcement are embracing cyber tools, but are reluctant to discuss operations and strategies. These institutions see cyber norms as constraints rather than mechanisms for stability. Without transparency, trust erodes as states struggle to gauge each other’s cyber intentions and capabilities.

Recognising these challenges, in August 2024, ASPI brought together experts from Australia, ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste in a civil society dialogue in Kuala Lumpur sponsored by the Australia-ASEAN Centre. Discussions on the shifting cyber threat landscape, regional progress on cyber norms and strategies for strengthening cooperation highlighted one thing—transparency, information sharing and collaborative threat assessments reduce misperceptions and strengthen trust among ASEAN members.

But governments cannot implement cyber norms alone. They must collaborate with those who build, manage and depend on digital infrastructure and with those who advocate for digital rights, privacy and cybersecurity. Private sector actors, particularly technology firms that manage critical information infrastructure, need to be engaged to ensure that cyber norms are not only socialised but policies or initiatives that come out of them are practical, enforceable and aligned with the rapidly evolving cyber landscape. Industry-driven initiatives, such as sector-specific security standards for critical infrastructure, can support government-led efforts by introducing adaptable and enforceable cybersecurity measures.

Academia and think tanks also play a role by supporting capacity-building programs and offering research and policy insights that help shape decision-making. They can help assess the success of policy measures, including progress in norms operationalisation, and can function as informal intermediaries between governments seeking to communicate issues indirectly.

For ASEAN’s cyber norms to take root, multistakeholder engagement must be institutionalised through regular dialogues that include government and non-government actors. ASEAN has long used these mechanisms to navigate complex security challenges. Applying them to cyber governance will ensure that all member states, regardless of their cyber capabilities, have a say in shaping the region’s approach to cybersecurity.

Beyond dialogues, ASEAN needs a regional model of cyber norms maturity to measure their progress in implementing UN cyber norms. Such a model would consider factors such as cybersecurity infrastructure, legal frameworks and policy development. A structured roadmap would enable ASEAN states to move from basic compliance to advanced implementation, creating a stronger, more cohesive approach to cybersecurity.

Engaging local stakeholders is just as important. Cyber norms shouldn’t just be the domain of policymakers; they must resonate with businesses, academics and local communities. Bringing small and medium-sized enterprises, universities and civil society groups into the conversation ensures that cyber norms are implemented in ways that are practical, relevant and responsive to local challenges. Regular feedback loops will help refine these norms over time, keeping them relevant and adaptive.

In addition, discussions on cyber norms must break out of traditional security silos. Cybersecurity challenges intersect with issues such as environmental protection, trade, human rights and even cultural heritage. ASEAN should take a broader, interdisciplinary approach and incorporate insights from diverse fields to craft comprehensive solutions. For example, protecting critical infrastructure, such as submarine cables, shows that cyber resilience is interconnected with economic and environmental stability.

As a long-standing ASEAN partner, Australia has a key role to play. Recognising that cyber threats do not respect borders, Australia has been a strong advocate for regional cybersecurity cooperation in Southeast Asia. Australia can offer technical expertise, capacity-building programs and legal assistance to help ASEAN member states bridge cyber capability gaps and build a resilient digital ecosystem.

ASEAN’s adoption of the cyber norms checklist is a promising step, but real progress will depend on sustained implementation, capacity-building and advocacy. Multistakeholder collaboration, including between ASEAN and Australia, will ensure these norms move from paper to practice. Through inclusive engagement and cooperative action, the region can take decisive steps toward a secure, resilient and rules-based Indo-Pacific cyber landscape.

The Quad foreign ministers joint statement: short and sweet

Today’s joint statement from the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in Washington is short and sweet, particularly for those who have been arguing that the grouping should overtly embrace security cooperation.

The statement’s emphasis on ‘security in all domains’ is a noteworthy and welcome shift from the previous, awkward position that the Quad was not a security partnership, despite working together in health security, cybersecurity and maritime security.

This inherent contradiction was unnecessarily self-limiting and confusing but persisted because Quad members, including Australia, saw this self-constraint as necessary to assuage Southeast Asian sensitivities about counterbalancing or containing China.

The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade should update its official description of the Quad, which is currently a ‘a diplomatic, not security, partnership’.

Also absent from the statement is any reference to ‘ASEAN centrality’. This is notable because past Quad statements have all dutifully replicated this diplomatic deference to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. This ellipsis is an early indication that the Trump administration does not intend to pursue cooperation through the Quad only at a pace that is comfortable for Southeast Asian countries. In fact, ASEAN doesn’t appear to register at all as a policy concern among some members of Trump’s cabinet line-up.

While China is not named either, a joint commitment to ‘oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion’ leaves little doubt that Beijing is the Quad’s common challenge. A subsequent reference to ‘strengthening regional maritime, economic and technology security in the face of increasing threats’ should remove any remaining doubt. Beijing will inevitably react to such bluntness. But the Quad’s belated embrace of security cooperation is welcome. After all, security is a public good just like other elements of the Quad’s agenda, and something which the four countries should openly aspire to strengthen, without fear of offending others in the region.

Defence cooperation is not mentioned directly in the joint statement as part of the Quad’s security agenda. But it is strongly hinted in the commitment that ‘rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity’ should be ‘upheld and defended’ in the Indo-Pacific. (Note ‘defended’.) The Quad navies already exercise together in the annual Malabar drills. It is likely that a military dimension to four-way cooperation will now develop within the Quad, not only in unwarlike activities as disaster relief but also focused on deterrence. This should not dilute the Quad’s collaborative agenda in other policy fields, such as supply chain resilience and maritime domain awareness, but rather complement it.

The fact that the Quad foreign ministers meeting was virtually Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first official activity will be read as a sign of President Trump’s willingness to back the quartet, which after all was revived in 2017 during his first term in office. This will come as a relief to Australia, India and Japan. And it underlines the Quad’s strategic utility not simply as a counterbalance to China but also as a means to anchor the US security role in the Indo-Pacific via a broad-based partnership with three of its most important regional partners, including its closest regional ally, Australia, and its most important one, Japan. India, which offers the heft as the world’s most populous country and democracy, will host the next summit of Quad leaders this year. Trump’s attendance in Delhi will be essential to maintaining the momentum.

This is a promising turn in the Quad’s fluctuating fortunes. It is tempting to inversely correlate the impact of joint statements with their length. The commendable brevity of this two-paragraph statement packs policy punches that were patently missing from some of the Quad’s recent, prolix pronouncements. When it comes to drafting joint statements, concision should be best practice: less means more.

Now that ASEAN has its cyber norms checklist, the hard work begins

Southeast Asian countries have made an important step towards operationalising UN standards on government cyberspace behaviour, but the job is far from finished.

On behalf of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Singapore last week published a checklist of action points aimed at giving effect to the standards, which are called 11 norms and were endorsed by the UN General Assembly in 2015. Now, the challenge is to put the action points themselves into practice, overcoming resistance inside Southeast Asian governments and encouraging other states to follow.

The importance of this should be clear in Southeast Asia, since it and the wider Indo-Pacific region are increasingly plagued by malicious cyber activities. Encouraging states to abide by accepted practices of responsible behaviour in cyberspace is urgent.

In 2018, ASEAN became the first, and still only, regional organisation to adopt the norms when they were endorsed in an ASEAN leaders’ statement on cybersecurity cooperation. The new checklist, promoted by Malaysia and Singapore, aims to break the norms down into practical, actionable steps.

For example, to support the norm of not damaging another country’s critical infrastructure, the checklist includes making supportive political statements and setting clear internal guidelines for officials’ use of cyber tools. Meanwhile, cooperating internationally to combat crime and terrorism online means that responsible agencies should have a regularly updated directory of points of contacts of overseas counterparts.

But the discussion so far is at the level of foreign ministries and cybersecurity agencies. Checklist items need to be implemented by the core institutions responsible for deploying cyber capabilities, including defence, police and intelligence agencies.

Getting them to commit to the norms checklist will be no easy task. Agencies building cyber capabilities are often inward-looking and focused on national security work rather than broader cooperation. So they are not too receptive to commitments that could constrain their activities. Governments will need to introduce these principles across agencies, demonstrating to domestic constituencies their relevance for regional stability and national security.

Furthermore, ASEAN’s checklist needs to be more than a set of guidelines; it must serve as a tool for diplomatic engagement with external powers. My assessment of open sources shows that Southeast Asia remains one of the most targeted regions for state-sponsored cyber campaigns, primarily by China and North Korea. Most suspected state-sponsored cyber operations in the region have been linked to China. This makes it essential for ASEAN to advocate its checklist beyond its members, encouraging adherence by irresponsible state actors. This will be especially challenging, as some actors are increasingly weaponising cyberspace to secure economic and strategic aims.

ASEAN has long hoped to use norms and principles—institutionalised in arrangements like the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and an eventual South China Sea code of conduct—to influence behaviour of other states. In the cyber domain, this could mean ensuring that the agreed commitments in the text serve as a benchmark for responsible behaviour. Irresponsible states, such as China and North Korea, are unlikely to immediately embrace the checklist. But even incremental shifts toward greater transparency and accountability would be significant progress.

To support these efforts, ASEAN needs to develop robust confidence-building measures alongside the checklist. The measures can serve as reasons for dialogue, information sharing and transparency, helping government agencies—including those with authority over cyber capabilities—to build trust in the cyber domain. These measures can also be crucial platforms for reducing misunderstandings, managing tensions and fostering cooperation among states. Confidence-building measures should also be designed to cover either each of the 11 norms or combinations of them, allowing discussions that highlight either common or shared challenges in implementing and operationalising them. Another initiative could be devising the means of tracking checklist implementation.

Australia’s role in this context is instrumental. It has put much effort into cyber capacity-building in Southeast Asia, often working closely with ASEAN member states to raise awareness about the importance of cyber norms. Canberra should continue to use its diplomatic, technical and financial resources to support ASEAN’s efforts, particularly in promoting the operationalisation of the checklist at the national level.

The checklist is only a step on a journey. Implementation will determine its impact. Translating diplomatic principles into operational realities is urgent as cyber threats continue to evolve.

The road ahead will be marked by diplomacy, negotiation and gradual progress, but it is a road worth taking if Southeast Asia aims to create a safer and more secure cyber environment for all its people.

Typhoon relief is an opportunity for ASEAN to promote peace in Myanmar

Typhoon Yagi was a disaster for Myanmar last month, killing hundreds. But some good can come from it if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations uses the occasion to promote peace in the strife-torn country.

To facilitate humanitarian relief, military government and its armed oppositions have to negotiate a ceasefire. ASEAN should link international relief efforts to broader peacebuilding initiatives, creating a foundation for a longer-term dialogue.

If ASEAN acts decisively to mediate Myanmar conflict, it will not only help stabilise the country but also reaffirm the organisation’s role as an effective regional platform. Also, ASEAN members need to help resolve Myanmar’s civil war because the country has become fertile ground for hybrid threats and crime that present problems for the region.

Production and trafficking of synthetic drugs, primarily methamphetamine, thrives in Myanmar, in part with support by triads from China. Shan, an eastern state, is at the centre of the illegal trade. Armed ethnic groups are heavily involved in these activities, using the proceeds to fund their resistance to the government while facilitating transnational criminal operations that have spilled over into neighbouring Laos.

Another issue is illegal arms trafficking, with weapons being smuggled into Myanmar from conflict zones in southern Thailand, the Philippines, Syria and Afghanistan. A sniper rifle costs as little as US$220 in Myanmar, though ammunition is expensive. Meanwhile, cyber scam compounds are mushrooming within Myanmar’s porous borders, operated by transnational criminal networks.

And if Myanmar’s domestic conflict remains unresolved, the strategically located country could become a proxy battleground as the United States, China, Russia and other powers vie for influence in the Indo-Pacific. China already has influence over certain non-state actors in Myanmar, and its manoeuvres could destabilise ASEAN unity.

So, failure to effectively engage in peace negotiation with Myanmar so far not only diminishes ASEAN’s credibility but also weakens its ability to counter external pressures and address members’ internal strife.

Myanmar was suffering a humanitarian crisis even before Typhoon Yagi hit from the east. Floods and landslides resulting from the typhoon displaced hundreds of thousands in the Mandalay region and overwhelmed the country’s already fragile relief infrastructure. As millions remain in dire need of humanitarian aid, the Myanmar junta has called for dialogue at the end of September, offering a glimmer of hope for conflict resolution.

A 2005 precedent shows that a natural disaster can be a catalyst for peace. The eastern Indonesian province Aceh struggled to recover from a terrible tsunami in late 2004 that created common ground for both the Indonesian government and Aceh Freedom Movement to start peace talks, as both sides focused on helping victims rather than fighting.

ASEAN should take the chance by pushing for a ceasefire as a condition for improving international relief efforts, and it should aim to work from the ceasefire towards broader peacebuilding as a foundation for negotiations between the two sides over the longer term.

Indonesia and Thailand have initiated dialogues to address Myanmar’s conflict, but if ASEAN deployed pooled resources of its members, it might achieve more. In a joint statement issued at the ASEAN leaders summit on 9 October, the member states said the association would continue engagement with Myanmar. The next extended informal consultation between Myanmar delegations, the special envoy and interested member states is scheduled for December in Thailand.

Pre-coup ASEAN has already provided humanitarian assistance in Myanmar, through its ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management in Rakhine, a southwestern state. Moving forward, ASEAN can gather contributions from its member states, such as Thailand and Malaysia, and ensure that aid reaches the most vulnerable while it simultaneously pushes for meaningful political dialogue.

ASEAN needs to continue its implementation of the Five-Point Consensus, which seeks an immediate end of violence, dialogue among all parties, appointment of a special envoy and the parties in Myanmar facilitating humanitarian assistance and allowing the envoy to visit Myanmar to meet all of them. ASEAN must also enhance its engagement with influential actors, including China, India, Japan and the United States.

A unified ASEAN stance will be critical in preventing any single power from dominating Myanmar’s political landscape, thus preserving regional stability and the association’s strategic role in the region.

Finally, enhancing regional security through cooperation should be a priority. ASEAN must bolster intelligence-sharing and joint security initiatives to address threats emanating from Myanmar. Collaboration with international partners, such as with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, will be critical in dismantling criminal networks and curbing the influence of malicious actors involved in the conflict.

A new economic policy agenda for Asia as challenges mount

The global economic landscape is changing fast. Scarring from the Covid-19 pandemic has weakened potential growth, making slower income gains the new normal for many countries. Geopolitical tensions—especially the trade and technology ‘ war’ between the United States and China—are threatening not only to halt globalisation, a key enabler of growth over the last few decades, but also to split the world economy into blocs. And the days of low and stable inflation seem to be giving way to structurally higher and more volatile prices.

Meanwhile, rapid digitalisation propelled partly by advanced technologies like generative artificial intelligence is continuing apace, and the effects of climate change are becoming more visible by the day. Taken together, these developments pose major challenges to policymakers worldwide. Those in the ASEAN+3 countries, the 10 ASEAN member states, plus China, Japan, and South Korea, are no exception.

During the pandemic, ASEAN+3 governments went all in to support their economies, not least by monetising fiscal deficits, a taboo in normal times. The unprecedented fiscal stimulus they pursued; including large amounts of direct assistance to households and firms, from cash handouts to fuel subsidies; was accompanied by large interest-rate cuts. For example, in the Philippines, cumulative cuts in the policy rate reached 200 basis points in 2020. Governments also pursued policies like debt moratoria and regulatory forbearance.

In the post-pandemic era, these measures are excessive, imprudent, and unsustainable. But lower growth, higher inflation, and more public debt—which surged from around 93% of GDP, on average, in 2019 to 100% in 2022 in ASEAN+3 economies—makes unwinding them difficult. Doing so while addressing the multifaceted challenges that lie ahead will require a carefully crafted mix of policies tailored to specific economies’ needs.

ASEAN+3 policymakers seem to recognise this. Despite facing broadly similar challenges, these governments have emphasised different measures, depending on their economy’s circumstances and policy space. For example, countries like Singapore and the Philippines sought to tackle inflation primarily through aggressive monetary tightening, with the former using exchange-rate targeting to reduce imported inflation.

By contrast, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand pursued more gradual interest-rate hikes, and used fuel and food subsidies to keep inflation in check. Meanwhile, China (where inflation remains low, and the post-pandemic recovery has been slower than expected) and Japan (with structurally low inflation) upheld accommodative policies.

ASEAN+3 countries also intervened in foreign-exchange markets. As the US Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, fueling expectations that rates would remain higher, the US dollar appreciated, especially against currencies of countries with larger interest-rate differentials. Since rapid currency depreciation can compound inflationary pressure, making it harder for firms and households to adjust, several ASEAN+3 central banks used their international reserves to bolster their currencies.

But policymakers were careful not to overdo it and retained sufficient international reserves to meet their external obligations. More broadly, they seem to have managed to limit the fallout from pandemic and inflation shocks and, overall, ASEAN+3 remains a bright spot in the global economy.

This success has come at the cost of reduced policy space, however, and to withstand future shocks ASEAN+3 countries must now rebuild it. To this end, they should embark on fiscal consolidation and end regulatory forbearance, debt relief, and other extraordinary policies and programs introduced during the pandemic.

Many ASEAN+3 economies have already committed to rebuilding their fiscal space. Singapore has raised several taxes, including its goods and services tax, and Indonesia has implemented a comprehensive tax-reform package which includes a 2% increase in its value-added tax. Malaysia is rolling back broad-based subsidies in favor of more targeted support. And the Philippines has adopted a medium-term fiscal framework.

But there is much more to be done. In the short term, two priorities stand out: strengthening balance sheets in both the public and private sectors and building up financial buffers.

Though financial sectors in the ASEAN+3 countries remain stable, with ample liquidity and capital buffers, there are pockets of weakness in some economies and in many debt stocks have risen uncomfortably close to the threshold of sustainability. Macroprudential policies such as capital requirements, loan-to-value ratios, and debt-service ratios should be implemented or strengthened, and weak banks should be recapitalised. Some countries have already been pursuing debt restructuring, to ensure that viable borrowers can survive as debt-relief programs expire.

ASEAN+3 policymakers must also address longer-term structural challenges. Greater regional integration is essential, as it would increase countries’ resilience to the forces of fragmentation, reinforce efforts to mitigate climate change, and improve efficiency and productivity through faster digitalisation. Some countries might need infrastructure development, labor-market reforms, industrial policies, regulatory changes, and a concerted effort to boost foreign direct investment and trade.

The ASEAN+3 countries should waste no time preparing for the formidable challenges they face. The outlook for the global economy depends on their success.

‘Same, same but different’: assessing ASEAN’s and the EU’s maritime strategies

The emergence of the Indo-Pacific concept shows the cardinal role oceans play in shaping international politics. While synergies are created by the notional confluence of the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, these waters contain some of the world’s most sensitive flashpoints for conflicts that could have monumental consequences.

In that context, the South China Sea assumes great significance. It is a crucial maritime commons with vast tapped and untapped natural resources. But it is also a major arena of traditional and non-traditional strategic contest and a source of anxiety for small and mid-sized littoral states as well as rising, major and superpowers.

As two leading groupings with considerable stakes in the Indo-Pacific, the EU and ASEAN are striving to map the region’s complex mix of challenges and opportunities and find manoeuvring space in mitigating the threats that might emerge. Both organisations recently released maritime strategies—an updated EU maritime security strategy (EUMSS) was announced in March, and the inaugural ASEAN maritime outlook (AMO) was launched in August.

The debutant AMO emphasises the value ASEAN places on overcoming maritime problems and difficulties more sincerely than before. Due to the diversity of its member states’ interests, ASEAN has consistently fallen short of acquiring the requisite maritime awareness.

The AMO reflects on ASEAN’s achievements, summarises its cooperation with partners, identifies opportunities and challenges, and indicates a way forward for its approach to maritime security. The AMO is a roadmap designed to provide a secure direction, rather than a set of instructions with specific policy steps. For a regional organisation with overlapping institutional mechanisms, poor technological know-how and members with divergent interests, producing a step-by-step plan for expanding maritime domain awareness across the spectrum would be an overwhelming task. Instead, the AMO aims to give ASEAN policymakers and dialogue partners a sense of direction by summarising partnerships and pinpointing possibilities for and constraints on further work.

Specifically, the AMO lists areas where ASEAN is seeking to improve cooperation in upholding standards that are consistent with its shared principles and international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Addressing the region’s central maritime concern—the South China Sea conflicts—the AMO candidly states ASEAN’s preference against external interference. This is a topic that ASEAN has been vague on in the past, so the AMO can be seen as a step towards recognising what it has done and should do about the issue.

The AMO also deals with longstanding structural issues and suggests fixes. It addresses the division of labour among sectoral groups and the distinct objectives of each discussion partner and aims to reduce duplication within ASEAN frameworks by breaking down silos. The AMO complements the 2019 ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific, which lacked clarity on priorities and follow-up in these areas. It fills the gaps and offers a clearer direction for ASEAN’s maritime efforts in the Indo-Pacific region.

In contrast to the AMO—a start-from-scratch endeavour—the EUMSS is a renewal of a strategy first released in 2014 that was last updated in 2021. The most recent revision, updated in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, has an increased emphasis on naval cooperation, the development of marine infrastructure, and sturdier EU participation in the Indo-Pacific.

The EUMSS envisions frequent joint naval exercises and, eventually, more collective surveillance and information exchange. The EU wants to strengthen its defences against hybrid and cyber assaults on its Indo-Pacific assets, including pipelines and underwater cables, whose strategic significance has been highlighted by the Ukraine war. The most noticeable change, though, is the document’s heightened focus on the Indo-Pacific. It sets out a broad plan that reflects the EU’s desire to build new multilateral investment agreements in this geopolitically contentious region and urges member states to increase their engagement.

The EU’s strategy also shifts the focus from non-state threats to state threats, and from handling internal maritime security challenges inside the EU to securitising the EU in a broader global context. The update suggests a wider ambition to position the EU as a global security provider by engaging in a more contentious and sensitive maritime security arena.

Although their expressions differ, these two policies have similar implications. They both support UNCLOS and the rules-based international order in general, and while there are few indications of material collaboration, both approaches clearly focus on the South China Sea.

The updated EUMSS contends that illegal behaviour in the South China Sea stems from unilateral actions and maritime assertiveness by certain non-EU nations and highlights the harm this does to the international order. Without question, the EU is supporting universal standards; however, that doesn’t mean ASEAN would get immediately onboard with formal external cooperation. The AMO defines the South China Sea issue as an internal regional affair by acknowledging the significant contribution of the declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China Sea to stability, noting that it prevents the interference of extra-regional powers such as the US.

Through the AMO, ASEAN is seeking to increase its members’ maritime capabilities through technical and financial support. Coincidentally, the EU is keen to bolster cooperation with external entities, offering aid to improve hybrid and cybersecurity capabilities and fostering information and experience sharing. There’s potential for EU–ASEAN cooperation on this capacity-building work.

The EUMSS’s approach is specific, ambitious and traditional, while the AMO inherits the neutrality that can be seen in the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific and still chooses to explore non-traditional maritime security issues. The EUMSS is outward-looking, as evidenced by its pledge to protect EU citizens at sea, when necessary, in its neighbourhood and other regions, whereas the AMO sweeps the snow only from its own doorstep. As a strategic vision for maritime issue settlement, community building, engagement with external partners and coordination among internal mechanisms, the AMO remains primarily focused on ASEAN’s own territory.

Apart from their differences in focus and direction, the strategies also reveal the differing styles of the organisations that produced them. The EU chooses a more muscular approach. It is inclined to take prompt, effective and cooperative action to address maritime threats. Its aims are to strengthen its relationships with littoral states such as Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines and reclaim the position of power it had in the world before the successive rise of the US and China.

In comparison, the ASEAN way is more relaxed and flexible—as shown by how difficult it is to find even one specific maritime security recommendation in its AMO. The AMO reflects a ‘mindful’ ASEAN that’s aware of the salience of maritime issues but wary of being drawn into power games between the major players. Still, it is ultimately driven by a genuine quest for a better sense of direction in the maritime domain.

Assuming these differences came be overcome, whether the intention to cooperate will translate into any meaningful action remains to be seen.

How the Quad can become more than an anti-China grouping

To be strategically successful, the Quad needs buy-in from the rest of the Indo-Pacific region, notably from Southeast Asia. It needs to persuade the region that it ‘stands for something and not just against something’, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said.

This is a challenge for a number of reasons, including Beijing’s economic influence in the region, the varying preferences of individual Southeast Asian states, and lingering scepticism about the Quad’s underlying purpose, with many regional states likely seeing the group’s main purpose as being to counter the rise of China.

That’s why it’s vital that the Quad leaders focus on securing greater consensus and support by streamlining the group’s engagement mechanisms with Southeast Asia on issues where there is strategic complementarity and where it can efficiently deliver.

The Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US has many things going for it. Scepticism notwithstanding, attitudes across Southeast Asia to the Quad are generally more positive than those towards AUKUS—in part because the Quad is more than a security and defence-technology-sharing arrangement and, in part, because it promises to offer much-needed public goods for regional prosperity like vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In 2017, when the Quad was reborn, it was clear that it wanted to build resilience in the Indo-Pacific by working with existing regional mechanisms. To its credit, it has tried to go about that in many ways. For example, since their 2020 statement, Quad leaders have reaffirmed support for ‘ASEAN centrality, ASEAN-led architecture and the ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific’ to promote a stable and resilient Indo-Pacific.

It has looked for areas of practical cooperation, such as through the Quad Vaccine Partnership, which aimed to donate 1.2 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines to the Indo-Pacific by the end of 2022 (though the initiative underperformed due to domestic shortages).

On maritime capacity building in Southeast Asia, the Quad has agreed to support Southeast Asian states through the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, which will connect regional partners and allies with technologies to provide greater maritime situational awareness in real time. This is a much-needed initiative; while most Southeast Asian states are littoral, their navies and coastguards struggle to monitor their seas and respond to seaborn challenges. These initiatives show the breadth of the ways in which the Quad can play a meaningful role in ensuring Southeast Asia builds resilience. Indeed, there are talks about covering other issues, such as climate change.

That said, greater cooperation between Quad countries is clearly needed to ensure that these initiatives are implemented and managed effectively. To begin with, Quad countries should form a separate working committee to coordinate engagement activities in Southeast Asia (as well as perhaps for the Pacific—a key part of the region in which building support is vital). This could help make the necessary regional engagement more routine at the practical level of officials and help make sure it is geared towards a common purpose.

This committee should focus on Quad-specific engagement while also monitoring how individual Quad countries are working with Southeast Asian states. Given that some Southeast Asian states may not feel comfortable engaging with the Quad as an institution, bilateral engagements are still likely to be important means of providing resilience-building support.

The Quad should also consider working more with existing ASEAN initiatives. Given that the Quad has stated its commitment to ASEAN centrality, it is important that ASEAN as an institution not be sidelined. For all its limitations, a stronger ASEAN ensures that Southeast Asian states are afforded greater strategic space.

It’s important to ensure that the interests and needs of Southeast Asian countries are front of mind in any support that the Quad provides to the region. This needs to be the backbone of the positive agenda the Quad has tried to project. While many Southeast Asian states have concerns about the negative implications of China’s rise, scepticism will grow if the Quad’s regional engagement adopts an overtly anti-China approach.

Of course, the Quad has many things going for it. For a start, it is not proselytising a bipolar world order; rather, it demonstrates the growing reality of a multipolar one. Half its membership is Asian, and it is 100% Indo-Pacific. Through its actions and words, it should champion strategic choice and agency for Southeast Asian and other Indo-Pacific nations. It should promote a regional vision in which all capitals get to choose how they engage with a rising power in their neighbourhood.

Greater strategic collaboration by the Quad with Southeast Asia’s established mechanisms, and a strong focus on its priorities, could make a big difference by helping to strengthen resilience and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Tag Archive for: ASEAN

Stop the World: TSD Summit Sessions: ASEAN, regional stability and disruptive tech with Dato’ Astanah Abdul Aziz

In the latest video edition of The Sydney Dialogue Summit Sessions, Bethany Allen, Head of China Investigations and Analysis at ASPI, speaks with Her Excellency Dato’ Astanah Abdul Aziz, Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN for Political-Security Community.

They discuss Dato’s career path and how her time as a diplomat within Malaysia’s foreign ministry led to her current role with ASEAN. They also explore the role of ASEAN and the value that it brings to the region – not just economic value but also in building relationships.

With growing tensions in the South China Sea, Bethany and Dato’ discuss how ASEAN can contribute to greater stability in the Indo-Pacific. They also talk about how ASEAN nations are working to address the rise of disruptive technologies, particularly artificial intelligence.

Dato and Bethany were both panellists at The Sydney Dialogue, ASPI’s premier policy summit for critical, emerging and cyber technologies, held on September 2 and 3. This special episode is the fourth in a series of podcasts filmed on the sidelines of the conference, which will be released in the coming weeks. 

Speakers: 
Her Excellency Dato’ Astanah Abdul Aziz 
Bethany Allen