Tag Archive for: Arctic

The EU’s vision for a rapidly changing Arctic

The Arctic is changing rapidly, owing to the impact of global warming, increasing competition for resources and geopolitical rivalries. Regarding the region’s future, the European Union has both interests to uphold and a meaningful contribution to make. We intend to step up our engagement there through climate action, international cooperation, sustainable economic development and putting people first.

The European Green Deal will make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, and our legally binding commitment to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% by 2030 stands as a global benchmark. The green deal and the EU’s new approach to fostering a sustainable blue economy are at the heart of the union’s Arctic strategy. Among our core proposals are a call for oil, gas and coal to remain in the ground, including in Arctic regions, and the establishment of a permanent EU presence in Greenland.

This task could not be more urgent. Climate change is on everyone’s mind, but it is happening more than twice as fast in the Arctic as elsewhere. Some of the region’s coastal stretches will soon become ice-free during summers—and eventually during winters, too. Melting ice and thawing permafrost are releasing large amounts of methane, further accelerating global warming, while rising sea levels are increasingly threatening coastal communities around the world. The August report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stressed that human actions lie at the root of these developments.

Already, receding Arctic ice is opening up shipping routes and easing access to oil, gas and minerals—some of which serve as key inputs to help meet the world’s growing demand for innovative technology products. No wonder, then, that the Arctic is becoming more crowded, with a growing number of actors expanding their engagement. Increasingly, the kind of strategic competition that is so prevalent elsewhere in the world is now also shaping the Arctic.

China, for example, has described itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’, and has added a ‘Polar Silk Road’ to its transnational Belt and Road Initiative. It has been investing heavily in Russian liquefied natural gas fields and is eyeing shorter shipping routes. Russia, meanwhile, is building heavy icebreakers and looking at the Northern Sea Route to increase domestic and international shipping, as well as rebuilding military capacities in the region that had fallen into disuse since the end of the Cold War.

These developments show that Europe must define its geopolitical interests broadly to promote stability, safety and peaceful cooperation in the Arctic. Of course, the eight Arctic states have the primary responsibility here, but many issues affecting the region can be addressed only through regional or multilateral cooperation. The EU will thus expand its collaboration on such matters with all interested parties, and notably with allies and partners such as the United States, Canada, Norway and Iceland.

Regarding maritime search and rescue, for example, we need regional or circumpolar cooperation between national coast guards and should make greater use of our satellite systems to reduce risks at sea. Likewise, the EU is committed to the success of the agreement to prevent unregulated high-seas fishing in the central Arctic Ocean. Another regional priority is social inclusion: the challenges that indigenous reindeer herders face do not stop at national borders. We are also more effective working together when it comes to zero-emissions shipping standards, best practices in telemedicine, renewable energies or reducing plastic pollution.

With decades of experience in fostering regional cooperation, the EU will play its part. We are a leading proponent of multilateralism and take our multilateral commitments seriously—particularly those related to tackling climate change. And the union is of course itself part of the Arctic. Three of our member states have territory there, and we make laws that apply in five Arctic states. We are active in several regional bodies, including the Arctic Council, the Barents Euro-Arctic Council and the Northern Dimension, where we work with Russia, Norway and Iceland, particularly on environmental clean-ups.

The EU will expand its Arctic engagement across the policy spectrum. That includes paying special attention to the interests and views of youth and indigenous peoples, who have unique knowledge of local landscapes and are firsthand witnesses to changes that pose imminent threats to us all.

Clearly, we need an integrated approach. This means combining our climate and environmental goals with economic opportunities and joint action against shared security threats, including those arising from the climate crisis. For example, stimulating a robust green transition will enable Arctic regions to create jobs in sectors such as carbon-neutral energy, as well as develop sustainable approaches to connectivity, tourism, fisheries and innovation.

Europe will continue to use its substantial research budget and expertise in earth science to understand better and counter the effects of climate change. And we will seek to increase the EU’s strategic autonomy in minerals that are important for the green transition, ensuring that the extraction of these key raw materials is carried out in accordance with the highest environmental standards.

The Arctic faces serious, even existential, challenges. The EU will scale up and modernise its engagement to help ensure that collaborative approaches to addressing them prevail over potentially damaging strategic competition.

National security wrap

The Beat

Where there’s smoke, there’s crime

CID Gallup, a Latin American public opinion and market research company, has just released a report detailing an alarming surge in the illicit tobacco trade worldwide (PDF). The study, titled ‘From Ant Smuggling to an Elephant in the Market’, estimates US$40–50 billion in lost tax revenues globally and US$113.6 million to Central American economies. Unsurprisingly, organised crime groups like Mexico’s Los Zetas drug cartel and El Salvador’s Marabunta gang have profited. But the security threat is having an impact internationally too, with terrorist organisations such as Hezbollah and Hamas using illicit tobacco trade to finance their operations. The report concludes that greater intergovernmental cooperation and a ‘public-private sector alliance’ are needed to tackle the problem.

Money talks

Both the UN and the EU are facing renewed calls to combat money laundering and shut down tax havens. UN Independent Expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order Alfred de Zayas has urged incoming Secretary-General António Guterres to host a world conference on closing off tax havens where an estimated US$21–32 trillion is held. On Tuesday at the EU, MEPs passed a non-legislative resolution urging new rules that would permit EU authorities to seize financial assets from criminal organisations. That proposed initiative closely follows the EU’s 5th Anti-Money Laundering Directive that calls for centralised bank registers and reduced anonymity of financial transactions among other measures.

CT Scan

Philippine forces get a boost in Eastern Mindanao

Amid concerns the Philippines could become a new front for global terrorist groups, the Armed Forces of the Philippines activated Joint Task Force Haribon last Saturday. An amalgamation of existing task forces and special operators, the group’s tasked with security in Eastern Mindanao, a hotspot for terror group Abu Sayyaf. A new report (PDF) from the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict catalogues the Daesh-linked groups in Mindanao and ties that they maintain across the region (see Dione Hogson’s take on it over at The Strategist earlier this month).

Attribution error

At least 61 people were killed in Quetta on Monday as militants raided a police training academy. Daesh were quick to claim the attack, but the Pakistani government says communication intercepts link the attack to the jihadi group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). LeJ denied having direct links to Daesh, but later said that the two groups cooperated in carrying out the attack. LeJ is known for its anti-Shia sectarian violence, and many of its members were killed by Pakistani security forces throughout 2015 counterterror operations, including the group’s chief, Malik Ishaq. Daesh also claimed responsibility for the August suicide bombing in Quetta that killed at least 70 people, but analysts widely believe another Pakistani group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, to be the culprit. Check out this report (PDF) by Tariq Parvez, the first national coordinator at the National Counter Terrorism Authority in Pakistan, which lists the activities of Daesh in Pakistan since 2015.

Last, The New York Times has an interesting read on Germany’s dependence on US intelligence for counterterrorism operations.

Checkpoint

Calais ‘Jungle’ is no more

On Monday, French workers began demolishing the Calais’ ‘jungle’ migrant camp. Flanked by police escorts, the workers set about dismantling tents and makeshift shacks while the former residents were cleared out and bused to shelters across France. The migrants, who hailed from conflict ridden countries in Africa and the Middle East, had hoped to gain entry into Britain via the English Channel. UK Home Secretary Amber Rudd maintains that ‘responsibility for Calais lies with the French government’ but has also pledged £36 million for the cost of the camp clearance and to shore up border security. Calais Mayor Natacha Bouchart has expressed scepticism over the permanency of the solution, adding that migrants are still arriving and a regulatory framework is required to prevent new camps from being established in Calais.

Kashmir troubles (ain’t no denyin’)

Last month’s Uri raid continues to fuel tensions and minor skirmishes between India and Pakistan in the disputed Kashmir region. Cross-border firing and shelling has claimed lives on both sides and prompted bitter recriminations from Indian and Pakistani leaders. On Monday, a senior BJP leader led a five-person delegation to meet separatist leaders to discuss Kashmir’s ongoing civil unrest, however no firm details of the meeting emerged and the BJP’s National Secretary was quick to deny official party involvement.

First Responder

Daesh damning the environment

As the fight for Mosul continues, retreating Daesh fighters have amped up their campaign of industrial sabotage. The group’s set fire to oil fields throughout the battle, as well as the Mishraq sulphur plant south of Mosul on Saturday, sending toxic plumes over coalition positions. Analysts are concerned about the potential environmental and humanitarian impacts of Daesh’s sabotage campaign. Check out Wim Zwijnenburg’s excellent piece of analysis for Bellingcat that tracks the vulnerabilities of key facilities in Mosul, including the oil industry, industrial sites, and critical pieces of infrastructure such as power plants and water treatment facilities.

The future of the Arctic

The Atlantic Council hosted a conference on 25 October looking at the under-explored implications of climate change for Arctic strategy. The conference, titled ‘Geopolitics, Security and Energy in the Arctic’, brought together prominent national security officials to discuss challenges and opportunities posed by the opening up of the Arctic region. The participants provide some interesting takes on the challenges of operating in the Artic environment, US military posture in Alaska and competition over resources and access. Check out footage of parts one and two of the conference for some more in depth analysis.

Arctic and Antarctic strategy: poles apart?

Arctic Circle terrain can be seen from a U.S. Air Force C-5M Super Galaxy aircraft as it conducts an airlift mission June 5, 2011.The United States Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel recently released his Department’s new Arctic Strategy during a speech at the Halifax International Security Forum. This document follows the US National Strategy for the Arctic Region released by President Obama in May. Given the recent posts on Australia’s Antarctic strategy, this is a useful benchmarking opportunity for our own policy. More generally, as a new regional policy the two American statements offer some insight into influences on wider US defence strategy.

At face value, the US DoD’s strategy shares a number of features with the Australian policy outlined by Peter Jennings and Anthony Bergin, and implied in the recently commissioned 20 Year Australian Antarctic Strategic Plan. Most obvious is a recognition that things in the polar regions are changing; international interest and human activity in both areas are increasing as they become more accessible and there’s a real focus on their economic potential. But America’s recognition is caged in uncertainty; things are changing in the Arctic, but no-one knows yet just what they’re changing to, or what this means. There is a strong flavour of ‘wait and see’ to the US DoD’s approach—in that regard, it’s more reminiscent of Australia’s 2009 Defence White Paper than the 2013 one. Read more

ASPI suggests

ARCTIC OCEAN (July 1, 2008) The fast attack submarine USS Providence (SSN 719) is moored at the North Pole in the Arctic Ocean to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the first submarine polar transit completed by the USS Nautilus (SSN 571) in 1958. Providence is en route to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility from its homeport in Groton Conn. (U.S. Navy photo by Yoeman 1st Class J. Thompson/Released)

Here’s our short weekly collection of new developments, reports and events in the defence, NatSec and strategy world.

ASEAN

What are the challenges facing the new ASEAN Secretary General Le Luong Minh? Amruta Karambelkar looks at the inaugural speech of the grouping’s first Vietnamese head and what lies ahead for the region.

Submarines

For the naval wonks out there, RSIS fellow Michael Raska has a new paper (PDF) arguing for new classes of conventional submarine designs in the Asia Pacific.

India

What strategic interests does India have in the Arctic? This new Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies article looks at India’s chill factor. Read more