Europe is only as weak as it thinks it is

Europe has just held a rapid-fire series of high-profile summits. Following the Paris AI Action Summit and the Munich Security Conference, European leaders gathered for two emergency meetings in Paris to address the disturbing signals coming from the new administration in the United States. In each case, a central question was how Europe can catch up with the US and China technologically and militarily.

By now, it is obvious to everyone that US President Donald Trump’s administration intends to treat Europe with contempt, and that Europeans must take responsibility for their defence and security fully into their own hands. The US is not only sidelining European governments to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine; it has also thrown its support behind European far-right parties and accused European liberals and democrats of betraying Western values.

Is there a method to this madness? Could the overture to Russia be an attempt to repeat president Richard Nixon’s strategy of breaking the alliance between communist China and the Soviet Union? We know that Trump is obsessed with China, and that Russians themselves have good reason to fear Chinese dominance. If sacrificing some part of Ukraine would allow Trump to strike a blow against his bete noire, he would surely seize the opportunity.

But this Nixonian manoeuvre is unlikely to succeed unless Trump secures Europe’s participation, and that seems unlikely. Paralysed by fear since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Europe has forgotten that it can say no. But the Trump administration has shaken European leaders from their slumber. They are now taking an inventory of their strengths and exploring their options. Ukraine is not up against a wall yet. With increased support from Europe, its battle-hardened, highly innovative military can continue to resist Russia’s aggression.

Moreover, the Trump administration has not done much of anything yet except talk. Its real focus is on the home front, where it is busy gutting its own state capacity by mass firings. Trump’s war on the civil service—presumably the prelude to installing a skeleton crew of political loyalists—will inevitably cost the US money and reduce his ability to carry out his policy agenda.

The European Union, for its part, should not respond with the usual search for unity. Given the parties in power in Hungary, Slovakia and elsewhere, that is neither possible nor necessary. The better strategy is to build a coalition of willing EU member states and other countries that Trump is pointlessly alienating, such as Canada, Britain and South Korea.

This seems to be what French President Emmanuel Macron has in mind, judging by his recent statements. Many of his past warnings are now coming true. He remains one of the only leaders, alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine or the surrounding area. And lest we forget, France and Britain both have nuclear weapons.

Lost in the coverage following the rupture with the US is the fact that Western Europe is more fearful than Eastern Europe. We are arguably more familiar with crises, but we also are not the ones in Trump’s crosshairs. We do not have a huge trade surplus with the US, and we spend hundreds of billions of dollars on US-made weapons. Unlike the Netherlands (ironically the home of NATO’s new secretary-general), which spent around 1.7 percent of its GDP on defence in 2023, Poland spends almost 5 percent.

Judging by the flurry of recent speeches and statements from Republican officials, one might think that there are actually two Republican parties. On one hand, there is the old party that always sought to raise defence spending, strengthen US military alliances, and confront autocrats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, there is the party of Trump’s MAGA movement, which seems to believe that national greatness requires dismantling the US state and abandoning longstanding alliances, all justified with primitive blood-and-soil rhetoric and conspiracy theories.

While it feels as if the entire world has changed overnight, the truth is that nothing really has happened yet. If Europeans would only open their eyes, they would see that they have all the resources, talent, and instruments they need to secure their sovereignty and restore peace and stability. They do not need an invitation to the table. They should take inspiration from Ukraine, which has single-handedly halted Russia’s march of aggression through sheer willpower.

This is no time for Europeans to panic. On the contrary, Trump has given us what we need the most: a reason to get our act together.