A successful COP31 needs Pacific countries at the table

Australia’s bid to co-host the 31st international climate negotiations (COP31) with Pacific island countries in late 2026 is directly in our national interest. But success will require consultation with the Pacific.

For that reason, no final decision should yet be made on which Australian city hosts COP31—particularly because this week’s announced preference to host it in Adelaide appears to have taken the Pacific climate community by surprise. Adelaide isn’t on the Pacific.

By making this announcement, Australia sent the wrong message to its potential Pacific co-hosts, and if collaboration goes ahead, there will be many more choices and investments to make.

To be clear, Australia should maintain its bid for COP31. Australia’s leaders need to grasp that hosting COP31 is a strategic win for Australia, but how it does so matters. It is an opportunity to build and strengthen relationships with the Pacific community at a crucial time in the region, given key partners such as US are withdrawing and competitors such as China are advancing.

Going forward, Australia should define COP31’s success in terms of strengthening its relationships with Pacific island countries. Failure, not just for COP31 but for Australia’s interests in the region, will come from decisions that work against those relationships

Viewing COP31 from a domestic policy perspective is a mistake, yet that is how Australia’s leaders appear to be approaching it. It is instead a much wider strategic investment aimed to firm up Australia’s Pacific partnerships on climate and security.

Australia’s narrow approach includes framing the rationale of hosting COP31 around the cost of the event. It’s right for federal and state governments to be prudent about practical aspects when it comes to choosing a host location for such a large event, but thinking of it solely in those terms ignores the important strategic benefit of hosting in the first place. Preparing for an event of this scale comes at a cost, but in purely narrow local economic terms, hosting COP26 in Glasgow netted more than $1 billion in benefits for Britain.

It may well be that the South Australian government was more interested in hosting than the Queensland or New South Wales governments—both of which make more sense logistically for Pacific participation. South Australia has advanced renewable energy deployment at a great scale. Hosting COP31 would allow it to showcase its efforts and domestic industry. But with co-hosting being a strategic priority, these decisions should be made in consultation with Pacific governments.

Again, potential economic benefits should not be the main driver of decisions around hosting COP31. Our aim should be to jointly advance Australian and Pacific interests in the region.

Australia and its Pacific partners should prioritise the development and advancement of a COP31 agenda defined by key regional concerns. On climate, we are all digging ourselves further into a hole. Australia should work with Pacific partners to reframe climate discussions around addressing those fundamental risks.

Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are crucial for the survival of many low-lying islands and regions, including in Australia. Equally, we are behind on adapting to and preparing for climate effects, limiting our ability to mitigate. Global climate finance is seeing even more regression: the gap between what countries need and what will be delivered is widening, just as global investments in development and resilience are dropping.

COP31 is an opportunity for Australia to shift regional views of its approach to climate and security. It’s a chance to demonstrate to Pacific leaders that Australia legitimately wants change and is willing to make sure the Pacific voice is heard. To do this well, it needs the support of Pacific countries who have proven time and time again that their voices are worth hearing.

It is still a long road to hosting COP31. Turkey’s competing bid remains active, and the next decision on Australia’s bid will take place this coming June. But if Australia does not secure Pacific support ahead of that vote, it won’t just be harder to land the bid; it will also be less worthwhile, and the damage to our Pacific relations will hurt our regional interests.