Australia and Ballistic Missile Defence: Our Policy Choices

Release of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 5/2004

ASPI today released its latest Strategic Insight: Australia and Ballistic Missile Defence: Our Policy Choices.

Whether we like it or not, there are high levels of commitment in the US, by both the Republican and Democrat parties, to develop defences against attack by ballistic missiles. What are the policy issues that this raises for Australia?

Australia has been involved in missile defence and associated matters for many years, in particular through the Defence Support Program (DSP) formerly at Nurrungar and now collocated with the Joint Facility at Pine Gap.

The most persuasive option for Australia is to continue with our intelligence relationship with the US and with the use of data from DSP (and from its replacement SBIRS in the future) to give alert and initial tracking.

To do less, or to seek to differentiate between warning of massive ICBM attack, theatre attacks and US homeland attacks, fails the test of common sense and our national interest.

We should also look for opportunities to conduct more joint scientific investigations with the US.

There is no need to go beyond this and to acquire our own systems. There is neither threat nor priority.

There are nevertheless some threshold issues. The paper argues that the US missile defence program will most likely not upset the stability of the nuclear balance or in itself cause proliferation. But the Australian Government needs to establish an independent and informed view on the matter and to explain it to the Australian people; a major statement in the Parliament is called for.

A Trillion Dollars and Counting: Paying for Defence to 2050

Release of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Report on Paying for Defence to 2050

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released its report A Trillion Dollars and Counting: Paying for Defence to 2050

The author Dr Mark Thomson said:

” We’ve looked at the prospects mid-century for what it will cost to maintain our current defence force and whether the ageing of the population will limit the availability of personnel.”

“The good news is that there will continue to be more than enough young Australians to maintain the personnel strength of the ADF, although Defence will have to be agile and responsive to attract them.”

“The bad news is that the long-term trends in the cost of personnel and military equipment are upwards, as is the trend in the cost of maintaining and operating that equipment.”

“On the basis of these trends, our best estimate is that defence spending will have to rise around three-fold out to 2050 just to maintain our current range of military capabilities, although growth in the economy over the same period will ensure that the percentage of GDP only grows to a bit over 2%.”

“But when we look at credible upper range of the trends, the percentage of GDP in 2050 quickly grows to a more uncomfortable 3%, or even 4%.”

“The problem is that by mid-century the ageing of the population will see overall Commonwealth spending exceed revenues by around 5% of GDP on current policy settings according to Treasury’s 2002 Intergenerational Report.”

“No part of Government will be immune from contributing to a balanced budget later this century – including Defence.”

“While Defence delivered substantial efficiency gains last decade by contracting out non-core activities, the pace of reform has slowed and there are no big productivity gains on the horizon.”

Dr Thomson concluded by saying “The best way to boost Defence efficiency is to move away from the current centrally planned bureaucracy, and adopt a more business-like approach by giving the Service Chiefs direct control over resources and making them directly accountable for delivering results.”

Weapons of Mass Construction: Australian Naval Shipbuilding

Release of the ASPI’s Strategic Insight on Australian Naval Shipbuilding

ASPI today released its latest Strategic Insight: Weapons of Mass Construction: Australian Naval Shipbuilding

Its author Dr Mark Thomson said; “The Government plans to spend around $8 billion on new naval construction work over the next fifteen years.”

“While designs for the first two classes of new vessels are now being considered, the Government has not yet decided how to engage Australia’s naval shipbuilding industry in the venture.”

“This is a tough issue for the Government because how they proceed with these first two projects will reshape the industry for years to come. And Australia’s naval shipbuilding industry is currently spread across all the mainland states except for Queensland.”

“A further complication is that the Government is the sole owner of the Australian Submarine Corporation (ASC) which is unavoidably part of any future industry structure.”

“The key issue for the Government is whether to deliberately try and restructure the sector, or to simply offer the projects for tender and see what the market throws up.”

“There are signs of interest from outside of the traditional naval construction sector. These new entrants bolster the case for allowing competition to run its course with minimal intervention.”

“To ensure that the taxpayer is getting value for money, the option of foreign construction should not be discarded. The economies of scale in the current construction program are slight; only 8 vessels spread across 5 different classes to be delivered over 12 years.”

Dr Thomson concluded by saying; “Irrespective of the industry approach taken, it’s important to guard against risky Australian-unique projects by limiting the changes to existing ship designs.”

Police Join the Front Line: Building Australia’s International Policing Capability

of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Strategic Insight No. 1/2004

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released Strategic Insight No. 1/2004 Police Join the Front Line: Building Australia’s International Policing Capability.

The paper argues that the Australian Government has in recent years turned increasingly to the Australian Federal Police to help preserve the security and stability of some of the weaker states in the region – East Timor, Solomon Islands, and soon Papua New Guinea. The AFP has done a great job, but its resources have become tightly stretched.

More than 7% of the AFP is currently deployed on overseas operations – nearly twice the percentage of the Australian Defence Force (ADF), which stands at less than 4%. Unlike the ADF, the AFP is not set up for large and sustained international deployment. It is time they were.

This paper proposes that the Government should provide the funds to expand the existing Peace Operations Unit within the AFP into a Peace and Assistance Operations Unit to provide police trained, equipped and organised for sustained deployments in our neighbourhood. It should be comprised of 550 personnel, which includes a Sate and Territory police component of up to 50 personnel. This unit would cost around $120 million per year.

Terrorism and Australian Business

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute has today released a short paper on ways Australian business can be better protected against terrorism.

Authored by ASPI’s Director of Programs, Peter Jennings, the ASPI Strategic Insight argues that: “If terrorists choose to launch an attack in Australia or against our interests overseas, then it is likely that Australian businesses could be targeted. Yet there is much that business can do to become more resilient against the threat of terrorism and to help government defeat terror groups.”

Peter Jennings argues that the challenge for business is to work out how it can assure the safety of its people and infrastructure while continuing to operate in a vastly more difficult environment. That means paying much closer attention to threats outside the traditional realm of business risk management.

The challenge for government is to work out how to defeat a non-state threat that constantly changes shape while seeking vulnerable targets. That means developing greater organisational flexibility and faster reaction times. So governments need to think about security more like modern business thinks about its operations.

The ASPI Strategic Insight offers some suggestions for how businesses can strengthen their operations against the direct and indirect consequences of terrorism. These include: ” Broadening risk assessments to better understand how strategic and political events can impact on business operations. ” Involving boards and top management more closely in risk management as a part of strategic planning. ” Reviewing organisational vulnerability to the possible ripple effects of terror attacks. ” Using ‘war gaming’ and decision-making exercises to test the strengths and weaknesses of business resilience.

Peter Jennings argues that, to effectively counter terrorism, there is a need for more comprehensive collaboration between the business community and top levels of government.

A creative alliance against terror between business and government must find new ways of identifying and mitigating risk, faster and more comprehensive information sharing and new strategies to manage crises when they develop.

Mr Jennings is speaking today at the conference of the Association of Risk and Insurance Managers of Australasia in Cairns.

Sinews of War: The Defence Budget in 2003 and How We Got There

Release of an Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Policy Report on the Defence Budget

The Honourable Peter Costello, MP, Treasurer, today launched the ASPI report “Sinews of War: The Defence Budget in 2003 and How We Got There” in the Mural Hall at Parliament House in Canberra.

Defence spending is back in the news, with reports of major funding shortfalls. And yet the Government has provided major funding boosts in recent years. How could this happen?

“Sinews of War” explores the background to today’s Defence funding crisis, and offers some proposals for how to improve things: 

Imperative 1: Deliver new capabilities on time. An external ‘Procurement Task Force’ is scheduled to report to the Government later this year. The Government should move quickly to consider its recommendations. 

Imperative 2: Continue to improve Defence management. There are three things to be achieved as a priority. The cost of capability needs to be better understood. Financial discipline needs to be established so that efficiency can be targeted. And steps need to be taken to improve accountability within Defence. 

Imperative 3: Sort out the DCP and the strategic policy that underpins it. The Government is reviewing the DCP. To be credible the review must provide an achievable program of capital investment underpinned by a clear statement of our strategic and force structure priorities, along with a renewed funding commitment.

The report was prepared by Dr Mark Thomson, ASPI Budget and Management Program Director.

To find a copy of the report go to ASPI’s web site: http://www.aspi.org.au

Danger and Opportunity: Australia and the North Korea Crisis

Release of an Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Policy Briefing on North Korea

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released Danger and Opportunity: Australia and the North Korea Crisis. 

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has created an acute policy challenge for the international community. Australia has significant interests in the crisis in North Korea, in the way it develops, and in the longer-term implications for the balance of power in the Western Pacific. 

This paper examines the crisis on the Korean Peninsula from an Australian perspective, and explores the longer-term issues underlying the current situation. It traces the history of the crisis, analyses the interests of the major regional players, and outlines three broad scenarios for how the crisis could unfold. 

It also sets out the following possible ways in which Australia could play a part:

Creative diplomacy
Opening the windows
Reducing tension
Preparing for the worst
Reaping benefits

To find a copy of the report go to ASPI’s web site: http://www.aspi.org.au

OUR FAILING NEIGHBOUR – AUSTRALIA AND THE FUTURE OF SOLOMON ISLANDS

Release of an Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Policy Report on Solomon Islands 

The Honourable Alexander Downer, MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs, today launched the ASPI report Our Failing Neighbour: Australia and the Future of Solomon Islands in the Mural Hall at Parliament House in Canberra.

Solomon Islands, one of Australia’s nearest neighbours, is a failing state. Over the past five years, a slow-burning political and security crisis has paralysed the country’s capital, stifled its economy, disrupted government, discouraged aid donors, and inflicted suffering and hardship on its people.

The consequences for Australia are serious. A failing state on our doorstep engages Australia’s interests at many levels, from short-term economic, consular and humanitarian concerns to our most enduring strategic imperatives. 

The report examines Australia’s interests and the problems facing Solomon Islands. It then sets out the following possible policy approach: Australia could initiate and support a sustained and comprehensive multinational effort, which, with the consent of Solomon Islands, would undertake a two-phase program to rehabilitate the country.
 

  • The first phase would focus on restoring law and order. It would involve a substantial police force of around 150 personnel drawn from donor countries, along with judicial and correctional personnel, being deployed to Solomon Islands for up to a year. An ad hoc multilateral agency representing donor governments and acting on behalf of the people of Solomon Islands would take temporary control of the police and government finances.
     
  • The second phase would focus on building Solomon Islands’ capacity for effective government by helping to build new political structures and security institutions, and helping to address underlying social and economic problems.
     

The report was prepared by Dr Elsina Wainwright, ASPI Strategy and International Program Director, with contributors Quinton Clements, Mary-Louise O’Callaghan and Greg Urwin.

To find a copy of the report go to ASPI’s web site: http://www.aspi.org.au

NEW ASPI COUNCIL MEMBERS

Media Release – Minister of Defence

The Government has appointed three new members to the Council of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Defence Minister Robert Hill announced today. 

The new council members are Alan Dupont, Paul McClintock and retired Brigadier Jim Wallace. 

Dr Dupont is a director of the Australian National University’s Asia-Pacific security program. He is a highly respected and influential defence analyst and commentator on strategic issues, with particular expertise in Asia-Pacific security issues and transnational threats. 

Mr McClintock will bring to the council an impressive mix of private and public sector experience. Mr McClintock’s extensive industry experience, including his strong background in investment banking, will be invaluable to the Board in its consideration of defence industry matters. He has also served as Secretary to Federal Cabinet, a position which saw him manage the business program of the National Security Committee of Cabinet. He has an established record of providing sound, high-level advice on matters of public policy. He has served on the boards of a number of private companies and public authorities including the Sydney Ports Authority and the Central Sydney Area Health Board.

Brig Wallace served with distinction in the Australian Army for many years after graduating from Duntroon, the British Army Staff College and the Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies. He commanded the Special Air Service Regiment and the Army’s mechanised brigade, and served with the United Nations in the Middle East. He is a respected commentator on defence and strategic matters and will bring a valuable perspective to the Council as a recently serving and highly credible senior Australian Defence Force officer. 

ASPI is an independent centre of excellence created by the Government in 2000 and funded by Defence. The ASPI Council is responsible for the organisation and operations of the Institute. These appointments take the Council up to its full complement of 12 members. 

“The new members are well qualified to serve on the ASPI Council,” Senator Hill said. 

“Each will make a significant contribution to Government decisions and public understanding of strategic and defence issues, particularly in these uncertain times.” 

BUILDING THE PEACE – AUSTRALIA AND THE FUTURE OF IRAQ

Release of an Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Policy Briefing

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute today released a paper on postwar Iraq from a distinctively Australian perspective. 

Australia shares initial responsibility for the reconstruction of postwar Iraq with the other members of the Coalition. The way we discharge our share of the responsibility will be critical to a number of key Australian interests. 

This paper analyses Australia’s interests and the key challenges facing the Coalition in postwar Iraq. These challenges include the provision of humanitarian assistance, the restoration of order, the fashioning of the political framework, and economic reform and development. 

The paper also sets out several policy parameters that can guide Australia’s approach in postwar Iraq. These parameters include:

· Work fast 
· Engage Iraq’s neighbours
· Spread the load – draw in the UN, Europe and Japan
· Progress peace between Israel and the Palestinians
· Work with our partners and put our views clearly
· Set a limit on our commitment
· Look beyond the current crisis to our future interests. 

The paper was prepared by Dr Elsina Wainwright, Program Director of ASPI’s Strategy and International Program, with the assistance of contributors Dr Robert Bowker, from the Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies at the Australian Defence College, and Professor Robert O’Neill, Chairman of ASPI.