ASPI recommends: Can intervention work? (part II)

HELMAND PROVINCE, Afghanistan — Afghan girls watch as Lance Cpl. Karl Schmidt, squad automatic weapon gunner, guard force, Headquarters and Service Company, 3rd Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment, makes his way to set up a vehicle checkpoint May 30, 2010

We saw yesterday how the misinterpreted ‘lessons’ of international interventionism from the Bosnia experience led to the notion of ‘liberal imperialism’ that ultimately came unstuck in Iraq, only to be (somewhat) saved by a ‘surge’ in military effort. However, according to author Rory Stewart, even that model failed in Afghanistan, leaving a chaotic and counter productive situation. Although the international community had some considerable success early on in the campaign—promoting development and driving Al Qaeda from Afghanistan, ultimately killing nearly all its senior leadership—the attempt to transform the country has failed. Projects that depend on foreign technical expertise and which can be executed from Kabul or foreign capitals have tended to be successful, but the international community has floundered when confronted by the concrete realities—and forms of resistance­—shaping Afghan rural life. Stewart demonstrates that before 2011 the international community remained isolated from concrete realities, habitually optimistic about Western capability, and devoted to abstract forms of modern expertise shrouded in a jargon so dense they were difficult to interpret, let alone translate. Stewart condemns the tendency to rely on a culture of consultancy as opposed to country experts, which he argues is as pronounced within the British Foreign Office as the US government and the United Nations.

Echoing George Orwell’s classic analysis of ‘Politics and the English Language’, Stewart detonates the buzz-talk that has permeated the international community’s intervention in Afghanistan. Casting doubt on the use of concepts such as the ‘rule of law’ and ‘ungoverned spaces’, ‘disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration’ and the ‘legitimate monopoly on the use of violence’, Stewart demonstrates that the international community’s lofty abstractions were so difficult to apply to rural Afghan society that it was almost impossible to know when they were failing. This made space for absurd foreign projects and liberated policymakers from uncomfortable realities, allowing them to sketch indistinct utopias in a language so unexceptional and morally appealing it captivated Norwegian aid agencies and Delta Force alike. Lofty abstractions lacking concrete definitions could be arranged in every conceivable sequence, allowing members of the foreign intervention to justify almost any policy they pleased. The strategy was an abstraction but the war effort grew, and grew. Read more

International cyber security: a divided road

In the globalised, interdependent world in which we live our modern lives, the keystone that keeps much of our economies, infrastructures, lines of communication, defence, security, intelligence and social capital enabled is the cyber domain. Due to its international nature, this domain has created intimate interdependencies between states and also new avenues for states to achieve their policy objectives. Furthermore, as the domain empowers individuals, non-state actors and the private sector, a large-scale cooperative approach between a large number of stakeholders is required. And as technology develops in quantum leaps, questions remain about how we, as interdependent actors, will manage the cyber front.

The Budapest Conference on Cyberspace 2012 was the second international conference in a process begun by the UK Government in 2011 in London to begin a dialogue on international shared principles in cyberspace and to outline an agenda for a secure, resilient and trusted global digital environment. What became abundantly clear through the course of the Budapest conference was the divergent intellectual paths that countries are now taking in regard to this issue, and how distinct ‘camps’ are being established in the debate. Read more

ASPI recommends: Can intervention work?

Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus, Can Intervention Work? 2011Throughout the last twenty years, foreign interventions have been staged in the Balkans, East Timor, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Each time convoys of diplomats, consultants, contractors, and aid workers arrive hard on the military’s tracks. Pursuing noble aims yet swamping local societies, the international community’s interventionist projects have been simultaneously courageous, selfless and egotistical. The international community, convinced that all problems have solutions and that solutions are often formulaic, adopted a mantra: that the keys to success lie within the reach of Western governments, the trick being to equip foreign ‘experts’ with the data, resources, and authority necessary to achieve ‘progress’. The intervener’s mantra provides an important target for the broadside fired by Rory Stewart and Gerald Knaus in their recent book: Can Intervention Work?

The book consists of two essays, the first by Stewart and the second by Knaus, with a long but crisp co-authored introduction. The authors accept that certain circumstances—genocide, for example—can impose a form of duty on the ‘international community’ and that the doctrine of national sovereignty need not confer total immunity to the rulers of states. But, rather than debating whether or not particular interventions are just, the book is pragmatic, aiming ‘to understand…what makes interventions work or fail’. The authors provides common-sense advice few would dispute but as they argue the challenge is ‘not to lay out the principles; it is to convey just how rarely they are implemented and why, how much damage has been done through ignoring them, and how difficult they are to uphold’. Read more

China choice: Thai parallels for Australia

A Royal Thailand Marine holds his Corps' colors during the field training exercise opening ceremony of Exercise Cobra  Gold 2011

After my most recent trip to Thailand, I began to reflect upon the parallels in security between Thailand and Australia. It seems to me that Thailand faces a similar conundrum to Australia: its principal security ties are with the United States while its trading ties are increasingly dependent on China. For both Australia and Thailand the US ties are associated with significant capability benefits derived from information exchanges as well as modern equipment, procedures, and techniques. Both of our countries recognise there are sensitive aspects of their US-derived military capabilities that are not meant for others. Thailand also has a long tradition of deftly handling competing great power aspirations to protect its national interests, having successfully played off imperial France and Britain in the past.Thailand, like Australia, has a sufficiently diversified and large economy to be able to withstand threats of economic pressure and make its own decisions based on its own national interests. In this sense, Thai practice might provide a useful yardstick for reflecting on defence-related options for Australia in its current dealings with China.

Like Australia, Thailand has been an American treaty ally since the Cold War and has a vested interest in retaining strong and effective military ties with the United States. Much of Thailand’s military equipment, doctrine and procedures are drawn from the United States, reflecting over half a century of bilateral investment. Thailand therefore can ill-afford to act as if that legacy doesn’t exist, lest its extant force capabilities are unduly undermined. At the same time, Thailand has an interest in maintaining the relationship with the United States in order to avoid being subject to excessive pressure from China. Read more

ASPI suggests

Here’s our regular round-up of articles and analyses on the latest developments in strategy, defence and international security as well as upcoming events.

First for today is Rohan Gunaratna at RSIS whose latest commentary looks how global developments drive terrorism in Southeast Asia (PDF) and how these developments affect groups like Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) in Indonesia.

Next, for Strategist readers following the proposed BAE Systems-EADS merger, RUSI’s (UK) John Louth looks at why the deal collapsed and concludes, as a consequence, ‘Europe as a defence idea seems profoundly diminished’.

Turning now to international security, South Korea and the United States have recently announced a relaxing of the bilateral ‘guidelines’ limiting the range and payload of South Korean missiles. Jeffrey Lewis over at Arm Controls Wonk blog challenges four explanations offered for why South Korea is now safer.

Last week the International Crisis Group released a report on the 2014 transition in Afghanistan. Afghanistan Analyst Network’s Martine van Bijlert provides some context for the ‘fairly unified’ public backlash led by the Afghan government against the ICG report.

In terms of events, AIIA has two upcoming talks on Indonesia. The first is this Wednesday 17 October at their Sydney branch on preparing for a post-SBY Indonesia with Greg Fealy. The other will be held next in Brisbane Tuesday 23 October on the impact of Indonesia’s democratisation on relations with Australia and the Asia Pacific with Colin Brown.

Next week, as part of the National Security Institute’s monthly lecture series, Army Chief Lieutenant General David Morrison will present his views on national security, Friday 26 October at 12.30pm, University of Canberra.

Defence: the view from outside government

Senator David Johnston, the Shadow Minister for Defence, spoke at an ASPI lunch yesterday. His speech was titled ‘The politics of defence’, but its main theme was why defence shouldn’t be political. Along the way, he made some telling observations about the difficulty of trying to formulate sensible defence policy in opposition, with the twin handicaps of many fewer people and limited access to departmental advice.

That’s true for every portfolio of course. But he argued that Defence has some singular characteristics that make it even more difficult. First among them was the sheer impenetrability of the language that surrounds defence issues, making for a very steep learning curve for newcomers. There are some mitigating strategies that help, such as the parliamentary engagement program that allows MPs to spend time with uniformed personnel to gain a firsthand understanding of their motivations and their work. Another resource Senator Johnston identified is the work of think tanks and the media in trying to make sense of the inner workings of Defence and its advice to government and in providing valuable facts, figures and analysis. Especially for those in Opposition, without the kind of information accessible to Government, independent analysis is a ‘must-have’.

In one way that was a ‘warm and fuzzy’ moment for ASPI, and the Senator was kind enough to direct some gratitude our way. But it’s also an uncomfortable moment, reminding us that we face many of the same challenges as the opposition, in that our access to ‘inside information’ is extremely limited (often nil), leaving us to work with the usually incomplete public information and whatever we can deduce from experience or the odd snippet that comes our way. We’re glad we can sometimes help to inform the public discussion (and we’d put the chairs on the table and turn the lights out if we couldn’t) but, like the opposition, we’d benefit greatly in our work from greater transparency in the system and more information in the public domain. Read more

Indonesia’s terrorism: a perpetual threat

Bali Bombing Memorial, Jalan Legian, Kuta, Bali

As we approach the tenth anniversary of the Bali bombing, there’ll be remembrance ceremonies, personal reflections, and the entirely justified acknowledgments of the successful law enforcement and security cooperation that emerged since 2002. But there has been limited public discussion on the ongoing threat that terrorism poses to both Indonesia and to Australia. While it’s relatively safe to assert that larger scale terrorist organisations such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) have been substantially impacted by the dedicated and effective work of Indonesia’s counterterrorism professionals, this shouldn’t be equated with an end to the terrorist threat. While JI as an organisation is significantly diminished as a likely perpetrator of violent terrorism, the threat remains, and is likely to remain, a permanent aspect of the regional security landscape. As such, it’s worthwhile considering how and why the terrorism threat evolved in Indonesia in the first instance, and how this relates to both international developments and to the domestic situation here in Australia.

Much of the change in the nature of terrorism in Indonesia is reflective of the evolution that has occurred within Al Qaeda internationally. In part as a response to global counterterrorism efforts, but also as a conscious implementation of the strategic thought of terrorist theorists such as Abu Musab al-Suri (seen as an influential exponent of modern jihad), Al Qaeda, and its regional branches and affiliates have adopted an alternative structure and strategy. These changes are proving highly effective in ensuring the preservation of some form of operational capability, and in providing a resilient mechanism for the transmission of ideological propaganda as well as the communication of knowledge of terrorist tradecraft. What was once taught in training camps in Afghanistan or Pakistan is now delivered over the internet in video and audio files containing religious sermons, education in military theory, and practical instruction in how to assemble homemade explosive devices. Most online forums provide all this material in a range of languages, ensuring easy access to a wide variety of content. The global penetration and local relevance of AQAP’s Inspire magazine is reflected in a report by the International Crisis Group on Indonesian jihadism that noted that the first issue was immediately translated into Indonesian. In addition to the adoption of this method of education and communication, the global salafi-jihadist movement has also altered its military strategy. Read more

India: a rising power?

Taj Mahal at sunset

The rise of India has been trumpeted by analysts and scholars for over a decade. Dietmar Rothermund’s India the rise of an Asian giant, Mira Kamdar’s Planet India, Edward Luce’s In spite of the gods: the strange rise of modern India, Arvind Pangariya’s India the emerging giant, Robyn Meredith’s The elephant and the dragon and Brahma Chellaney’s The Asian giants: China, India and Japan are some prominent specimens amongst the recent literature proliferation on India’s global ascent.

Most hail India’s rise as a positive and constructive phenomenon for global politics. And there are good reasons to think that. Globally, India remains committed to multilateralism, the democratisation of international organisations and cooperative regional frameworks such as SAARC, ASEAN, IBSA, BRICS or BIMSTEC, to promote regional security and cooperation. Such constructive and cooperative foreign policy orientation has won enormous goodwill for India overseas. The Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently compared India’s rise to China’s, which gives to apprehension in some quarters: ‘the world takes a benign view of India’s rise…The world wants us to succeed’. The United States seems to share this view; President Obama has said that America would ‘look forward to a greater role for India on the world stage’, while US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, described India as a ‘linchpin’ in the American strategy for Asia. Read more

Defence in an age of austerity

Photo credit: Natalie SambhiHard times are upon Defence again, which will have implications for the way the nation’s military capability evolves. As Andrew Davies pointed out recently, much of the ADF’s capability today is thanks to a ramping up of spending after the 2000 Defence White Paper. During the 80s and 90s Australian defence spending was held roughly constant in real terms resulting in a steady decline in the size, technical sophistication and preparedness of the ADF. By the end of the 1990s, there were significant shortcomings across the entire force. Much of the Air Force and Navy could not be deployed in other than benign environments, and the Army had to pull out all stops to accomplish the INTERFET mission to East Timor in 1999.

As we apparently enter another era of defence austerity, many are concerned that we are headed down the same road again. Perhaps it was to head off this fear that the Minister promised not only to keep all of the ‘core capabilities’ of the 2009 White Paper but also to maintain the present number of military personnel.

As reassuring as this might sound, it creates a dilemma for those trying to pull together the 2013 White Paper. There probably wasn’t enough money to deliver Force 2030 to start with, and now the government says that it wants most of what was planned but isn’t going to pay the bill. It’s no doubt a frustrating time for Defence’s planners. Read more

An Australian agenda for the UN Security Council

Security Council Summit on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament

It’s almost crunch time for Australia’s bid for a seat on the UN Security Council for the first time in 27 years. After a $25 million campaign which lasted several years and some recent lobbying by PM Gillard, the seats will be decided around mid-October. Australia must get the votes of 129 countries, two-thirds of UN members, and beat out one of Finland and Luxembourg.

They won’t be easy beats. Luxembourg is the only founding member of the UN never to have held a Security Council seat and has been running since 2001. Finland wasn’t far behind, kicking off its campaign in 2002. Both have actively wooed votes, including in the South Pacific. Being small but decent European countries is no disadvantage. By contrast Australia has only been running for the job since 2008. Our middle power size, US alliance relationship and active role in Afghanistan and Iraq isn’t necessarily an advantage.

It will be embarrassing if UN member states don’t vote for Australia but the fact is that Australia has strong credentials for the position, including a sustained commitment to peacekeeping, significantly growing aid donations, a record of global action on climate change, a commitment to an effective United Nations and a willingness to be constructively involved in the big security issues of the day. As a middle power with global interests, Australia will bring weight and credibility to the position—indeed that might be why some countries won’t vote for us. But should the job fall our way the right thing for Australia to do is to set a positive agenda for Security Council action. Read more