Strategist Article Archives - Page 1129 of 1186

ASPI suggests

5 July 2013

Kevin Rudd has used his first trip as Prime Minister to the Australia–Indonesia Annual Leader’s meeting in Jakarta to launch the Australia the Asian Century Indonesia country strategy (PDF). Looking out to 2025, the strategy focuses on improving people-to-people linkages across community, business and government sectors via improving ‘Indonesian capabilities’ and other initiatives.

Sticking with the Indonesia theme, here’s the recording of last night’s special Q&A episode filmed in Jakarta. Hosted by the ABC, the Indonesian and Australian guests took questions from the audience on topics including asylum seeker policy, popular misconceptions and live cattle exports but touched on whether Indonesia might be a more powerful country in future right at the end of the program.

Next, has the US abandoned the pivot? Ely Ratner argues in Foreign Policy that Secretary Kerry has shown less interest in Asia than his predecessor and needs to rebalance his priorities to better reflect the strategic importance of Asia.

The United States will release its next Quadrennial Defense Review next year. This CSBA paper traces the development of the force structuring constructs that have characterised past QDRs and recommends a set of guiding principles that will allow the Pentagon to face ‘real world operational needs [despite] pressures on the defense budget’. (It’s not clear how many rabbits are in the hat…) If you don’t have time to read it, the Powerpoint briefing is here. Slides 25 and 26 are especially pertinent for students of Asia–Pacific strategy. The ‘legacy’ task of defeating major cross-border invasions is replaced with ‘conflicts over maritime areas’ on slide 25—and the map on slide 26 (below) shows a maritime area that extends from the Taiwan Strait to northern Australia.

ASPI’s Peter Jennings and Andrew Davies recently participated in the Lowy Institute’s Defence in Depth video series in which a number of Australian experts provide their analysis of key defence issues including the defence budget, strategic partners and ADF capability.

Events

Canberra: Dr Phillip A. Karber will present on ‘China’s military development: challenge for the Pacific region’, hosted by the Kokoda Foundation at the Australian Defence College, on Wednesday 10 July at 6pm.

Melbourne: Dr Bates Gill, CEO of the United States Studies Centre (University of Sydney), will be speaking about America’s capability to continue to be the leading player in the Asia Pacific, hosted by AIIA Victoria on Thursday 11 July at 6pm.

Rise of the cyber-men in Asia

5 July 2013

Cybersecurity is rapidly emerging as one of the highest US priorities for diplomatic engagement in Asia. A flurry of US statements over the last few months points to a new emphasis being put on building bilateral and multilateral relationships on cybersecurity matters. Australian official statements tend to treat the term ‘cybersecurity’ in a narrow way—limiting it to the domain of information technology security professionals. The US agenda, by contrast, is much wider.

A new front is opening in American diplomatic engagement in the Asia-Pacific. This will certainly encompass IT security, but America’s intent is to sustain closer economic engagement with countries in the region, to build secure supply-chains, combat organised crime, establish norms of behaviour in cyberspace and build effective links on cyber with defence and intelligence counterparts.

The US agenda was on prominent display at a US–ASEAN Ministerial meeting held in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei, on 1 July. Secretary of State John Kerry told the gathering that the US had ‘two issues of particular concern: maritime security and cyber security’. On the latter, Kerry said:

The United States is also working and looks forward to working further with ASEAN to improve cyber security and to combat cybercrime. We’re very eager to help ASEAN member states build capacity here in order to make sure that all of us are protected against cyber threats and in order to reduce the risks that these cyber threats carry.

Australia’s submarine enterprise: setting course

4 July 2013

ASPI today hosted a lunch address by Mr David Gould (PDF) in the DMO. It wasn’t the first public address on the subject of Australia’s current and future submarines by DMO’s General Manager Submarines, but it was certainly the most thorough to date. What follows is my take on the main messages in the speech and Q&A which followed—if it’s not in quotes, don’t blame Mr Gould.

The talk began with the recent past with a discussion of the Collins fleet. Current availability of the Collins was described as a significant improvement on the ‘intolerable levels of the late 2000s’, with three boats available to Navy much of the time—an improvement of about 50% on last year and ahead of interim targets. The long-term aim is for three to always be available, with a fourth available at short notice if required. Those numbers are consistent with the international benchmark identified in the second Coles report—which I estimate to be a little under 1,200 days of availability a year.

The caution on that good news is that things might get worse again before stabilising in 2016–17, as the shortfalls in maintenance over the past decade are progressively overcome. But even that decline isn’t guaranteed, as improved reliability of the boats due to (long overdue) changes in the assignment of responsibility in engineering decisions and the way in which spares are managed should see taxpayers getting better value from each submarine. It might seem surprising that what’s often reported as fundamental design problems can be ameliorated through what amounts to changes in management practices but that’s what the first Coles report (PDF) told us—nine and a half out of ten major findings were failures of governance. Read more

Amandla Awethu: Obama speaks in South Africa

4 July 2013

President Obama visited South Africa at a time when the nation is consumed with concern for the ailing health of Nelson Mandela. During their stay in South Africa, Obama and his family visited the Robben Island prison in which Mandela spent 18 years, and the stone quarry where he and his fellow prisoners were forced to work. Obama met privately with Mandela’s family to offer his support at this difficult time and observed that Mandela and South Africa’s transition to democracy is a ‘personal inspiration’. In a meeting with young African leaders in Soweto, Obama was keen to spread his ‘yes, we can’ message to Africa’s next generation of leaders and to encourage them to take inspiration from Mandela’s and Desmond Tutu’s moral courage.

On Sunday 30 June, at the University of Cape Town, Obama gave the keynote speech of his three-nation Africa tour. This speech, delivered in the continent’s largest economy, was to the whole African continent. He explained that his passion for politics was sparked by the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa. The venue of the speech was significant.I In 1966 at the University of Cape Town, Bobby Kennedy had delivered his ‘Ripple of Hope’ speech, in which he said:

Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope… those ripples build a current which can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance.

Even more reflections on intelligence

3 July 2013

I’ve had a number of conversations (both real and virtual) about intelligence oversight since I first wrote about it here a couple of weeks ago. In particular, Andrew Zammit’s response was a thoughtful piece on the difference between oversight and transparency and Nic Stuart said what everyone else was thinking—the background fear is a ‘1984’ like level of government intrusion.

I think it’s worth exploring these ideas a bit further. My confidence in our oversight mechanisms is based on direct personal experience. I was working in intelligence when the Intelligence Services Act was passed into law and saw the care with which the government agencies which came under its remit took to implement it. I’ve also seen the Inspector General of Intelligence and Security at work—with the powers of a standing Royal Commission, this is a body that demands and receives respect.

I also teach a course at ANU on intelligence and security, and a fair amount of our time each year is spent talking about oversight and the balance between civil liberties and the need for secrecy. Judging from their end of term essays, most of the students end up agreeing that our oversight mechanisms serve us well. Read more

Philippines: Aquino wants peace in Mindanao

3 July 2013

There are plenty of reasons for scepticism over the talks planned for early next month to bring about some form of settlement in the Philippines’ southern island of Mindanao, which has been torn by Muslim separatist conflicts since the 1960s. But there are reasons for hope as well.

The most substantial of those is that Benigno Aquino III, President of the Philippines, wants a settlement before his six-year term is up in 2016. Some of his predecessors have sought settlements, but one or another aspect of those proposals to bring peace has fallen through. It’ll be hard for the new talks not to be dragged down by the memories of past failures and the suspicions they’ve engendered.

It won’t be up to the negotiators alone: the main Philippines Government representative and the representative of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Nor will it be up to the Malaysian facilitator. Malaysia will probably host these talks, as it has hosted talks in the past. But the facilitator makes a point of not having the role of being a negotiator as well. Read more

Rudd as ‘straight’, Julia as ‘fixer’….and Tony?

2 July 2013

Politicians can be divided into ‘straights’, ‘fixers’ and ‘maddies’. This ‘simple but dazzling insight’ from the British politician Tony Benn is one of those lightning bolts that light up a vast landscape. And even explain a few things.

Consider the application of this flash of explanation to a strange moment in Australian politics. Kevin Rudd is a straight. Julia Gillard is a fixer. And Tony Abbott? Before applying the labels, turn to the definition and description of the categories. The central truth of such attempts at understanding leaders is that the focus is on personality as much as policy. This is an act of division and designation that many have tried. Read more

China: ‘largest trading partner’ isn’t what it’s cracked up to be

2 July 2013

The insight that for the first time Australia’s largest trading partner—China—is now no longer our primary security partner or even in the Western alliance has now been offered many times as a sign that enormous strategic changes are afoot for Australia and the region. But Australia isn’t alone. China has become the largest trading partner for Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and India. It’s no wonder that an increasing number of commentators believe China’s strategic pull, based on its growing importance as a trading partner, will be irresistible in the near future.

The facts speak for themselves: trade between China and major regional countries has been growing more rapidly over the past two decades than China’s already rapid economic growth. But is trade really as decisive a factor of future economic (and resulting strategic) orientation? I argue that strategists ought to place far more emphasis on foreign-direct-investment (FDI)—generally defined as equity ownership of 10% or more in a foreign business—rather than trade as a better and more powerful indicator of economic intimacy, and importance now and into the future.

Why focus on FDI rather than trade? Consider this scenario. You go to the same newsagent every day to buy your newspaper. Lately, you’ve also been buying your business stationery from the newsagent, making you a major customer and the proprietor very happy. But in the midst of a promising relationship, you have an argument with the town Mayor, who bans you from entering the shopping strip where the newsagency is located. Read more

Thinking amphibiously

2 July 2013

Much of the concern about amphibious operations in Australian commentary has focused on the vulnerability of the associated task group and ships to attack, rather than the difficulty of the amphibious problem itself. It is good that recent debate (some in The Strategist) has begun to display a more sophisticated understanding of the spectrum of amphibious operations, particularly in the relationship between their utility and the significant demands that even activities in a benign environment place upon the personnel and equipment involved.

The employment of an amphibious group in a contested situation against sophisticated opposition remains not only one of the most risky activities that the ADF could undertake, but also one of the least likely. And, even in such high intensity conflicts, a landing would seek to be where the adversary is not, rather than where he is—the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan is not the way ahead for the Australian amphibious capability. The key vulnerability issues are thus ones of wider maritime concern and should be answered separately.

On the other hand, given opponents or potential opponents in lower intensity conflicts, the capacity of the ADF to rapidly achieve over-match in an amphibious entry will be vital. This will demand mastery by all involved of high intensity and closely coordinated operational amphibious techniques. It is this land-sea interface and the integration of the amphibious ships with their embarked forces that will require the management of a steep learning curve and which needs the ADF’s close and continuing attention. The ships and their embarked forces should be capable of much even in the very short term, but there will be a long haul from achieving the basics to being able to exploit the full potential of the amphibious group. There are also matters of sustainment and readiness to be resolved, only some of which have been answered by the 2013 White Paper decision to retain the Choules in service. The ship can lift large numbers of heavy vehicles, as well as substantial amounts of stores and munitions. Without her, the LHDs Canberra and Adelaide will have the capacity to put very capable battalion groups ashore, but limited ability to provide the resources that such forces consume in their operations. One key question that remains is what follows, when—and how—in terms of an offshore deployment, particularly for its logistic requirements? Read more

Mr Rudd goes to Jakarta

1 July 2013

One wonders whose opinions the reportedly more consultative Kevin Rudd sought in advance of his press conference last week, when he speculated about confrontation with Indonesia under a Coalition government. ‘I am very concerned about whether if Mr Abbott became prime minister and continues that rhetoric and that posture and actually tries to translate it into reality I really wonder whether he is trying to risk some sort of conflict with Indonesia’, Mr Rudd said. ‘It’s not a good thing, it’s a really bad thing’.

Confrontation with Indonesia would be an unspeakably bad thing for any Australian government, but it’s difficult to see how that outcome would emerge from a difference of view over asylum seekers. The Australian Navy will always operate with the safety of individuals at sea as their prime concern, and no political direction can alter that. It’s simply misleading to imply that the unhappy and complicated asylum seeker issue could degenerate into war between Australia and Indonesia. The constant influx of boats carrying asylum-seekers makes the bilateral relationship difficult, but so too do differences over live cattle exports, the attitudes of some Australian NGOs on Papua, drug-mules and a range of other issues. The fact is that relations between the two countries remain on a positive track notwithstanding specific points of tension. Read more