In the market for a naval shipbuilding plan

The first Air Warfare Destroyer block to arrive in Adelaide was successfully rolled off the barge at the Government of South Australia’s Common User Facility wharf and into the ASC’s AWD shipyard.

In the first week of October, the 2013 Pacific Maritime Congress and Exposition will be held in Sydney’s Darling Harbour. It’ll be a massive event. More than 400 companies from 17 countries will take part in the Exposition, expected to attract around 10,000 people from Australia and around the world, including ‘numerous senior commercial, military and government delegations from some 30 countries’. Keeping with the scale and importance of the event, the (invitation only) opening ceremony next Monday will see speeches by no less than the new Defence Minister, the Chief of Navy and the NSW Premier.

The unashamed focus of the event is business. Suppliers of maritime and naval equipment will be there show off their wares. Private buyers and government officials will be looking to see what the market has to offer. Deals will be done.

A debt of thanks is owed to the non-profit organizers of the exposition, Maritime Australia Limited. By bringing together buyers and sellers, they help create an efficient market for maritime and naval goods and services. And the taxpayer can rest assured that the Defence will take full advantage of the event—not just by informing itself about the latest in naval technology, but by updating industry on its future acquisition requirements. Read more

Same crime: different effect?

Hamish Hansford’s response to my recent post adds to the explanation of the relationship between organised crime and security—his list of effects is a reminder that crime affects security in a number of ways. I’d like to build on that list by showing how organised crime has detrimental impacts on different referents of security (in other words, who or what’s to be secured).

In the diagram below (click to enlarge), I’ve identified four related referents that feel the effects of organised crime. The explanation will take time to build, so let’s start at the centre. The black oval represents the enablers of organised crime. These enablers have been taken from the ACC report (see p. 13), and feature traditional criminal tools such as violence, corruption, exploitation and money laundering. The ACC also highlight modes with emerging prominence, including identity crime, shonky business structures and misused technology.

Relationships between organised crime and society Read more

The strategic environment in Northeast Asia: towards greater uncertainty?

Sailors aboard the Chinese Navy destroyer Qingdao (DDG 113)This week ASPI held its inaugural Northeast Asia Defence and Security Forum in Sydney, bringing together a range of distinguished experts from the region and Australia. My task was to discuss some of the key strategic trends affecting the region. My baseline is that the region is subject to a volatile mix of cooperation and competition—but that there’s a risk of an evolution towards greater imbalance.

It’s difficult to understate the importance of stability in Northeast Asia for Australia and the rest of the region (and indeed the world). If something goes wrong there the consequences would be disastrous. The northern Pacific is home to the top three world economies (the US, China and Japan); three established nuclear powers (China, the US, Russia) and one emerging (DPRK); two of the three major Asian flashpoints (Korean Peninsula and Taiwan); as well as a range of unresolved territorial disputes.
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Making better national security (and defence) decisions

The Australian–American Memorial, Department of Defence, CanberraNew governments always rethink the machinery of state. The main aim is to make better decisions than the last lot—if only principally to retain government at the next election! So, in the field of national security and defence are there any problems that the new government should try to avoid?

The big one that everybody (and here) seems to agree on was the disconnect between ambition and funding—not just in defence, but elsewhere in government. For several years, big new schemes were ardently advocated, simultaneously with rising concern over declining revenue sources. A certain level of incoherence seemed inbuilt.

This was further evident in the incomplete white papers. The Asian White Paper glossed over hard power while the 2013 Defence White Paper focused solely on it, while seemingly unaware of the Asian White Paper’s new directions. The National Security Strategy’s four objectives, seven ‘key risks’ and eight ‘pillars’ read like a laundry list of issues composed from the bottom up. It seemed the several departments involved all contributed some items but, while every player then got a mention, the whole seemed less than the sum of the parts. The common problem again was incoherence. This wasn’t joined-up thinking. Read more

Brutality within and without: al-Shabaab’s fight to retain status

A soldier of the Kenyan Contingent serving with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) gestures towards the black flag of the Al Qaeda-affiliated extremist group Al Shabaab painted on the wall of Kismayo Airport.Of late, there’s been a positive narrative from the international community surrounding the growing security in Somalia, which had for over 20 years been considered largely a failed state. The European Union, with the UK playing a leading role, agreed in 2013 to bring financial assistance for peace and development to the country, with the aim of reversing years of failure by the international community. Only last week the EU announced a €1.8 billion package to assist the Somalian government’s efforts to establish order. And at a conference in May this year, the UK government, along with other donors, pledged some £84 million in aid to Somalia, with UK Prime Minister David Cameron announcing that huge progress was being made in curbing piracy and tackling an Islamist insurgency in Somalia. So with so much ‘progress’ being made, it’s hard to understand how al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda aligned Islamist group based in Somalia, carried out such a destructive attack in the Westage shopping centre in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on the weekend, with 62 known deaths and over 170 injured.

It appeared that the claims of progress were being backed up by the gains that African Union forces (AMISOM) have been making over the past few years. They first wrestled back control of the capital city Mogadishu in 2011, and then in 2013 the southern port of Kismayo, a pivotal strategic position for al-Shabaab from which they transported shiploads of illegal charcoal, and distributed arms and other goods to parts of the Somalia and beyond. Indeed, the organisation was forced to retreat to the rural areas of Somalia’s south and are largely fighting a guerrilla campaign, and the signs are there that at last Somalia may be able to make some real progress. Read more

Philippines city besieged

Just off Zamboanga Peninsula, in happier times.The origins and purposes of the violence in the city of Zamboanga, on the Philippines southern province of Mindanao, are somewhat obscure—but the immediate effects are brutal and apparent.

The violence started on September 9 in the city of more than 800,000 people. By last Saturday there were 114 deaths, more than 300 wounded, more than 110,000 made homeless, a number of villages reduced to rubble and about a score of hostages still in the hands of a faction of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). A number of schools won’t be able to be used for three months. Philippines President Benigno Aquino III, estimated that it would cost almost A$100 million to rebuild and otherwise to care for those affected by the fighting.

Of those killed, 92 were reported to be associated with the MNLF, 12 were soldiers, three were police and seven were civilians. There had been many more hostages, some of whom were used as human shields, but many were freed by government troops and police, while others were released or escaped. The police chief of Zamboanga was reported to be among the hostages but later turned up with a bus load of MNLF members who, he said, had surrendered and hadn’t wanted to take part in the fighting. The brutality wasn’t all on the side the MNLF: Human Rights Watch reported instances of torture by the military. Human Rights Watch also reported that some of those used as human shields by MNLF forces were Christians. Read more

Transformation and turbulence in the Middle East

Celebrations in Tahrir Square after news that concerns Mubarak had resigned. February 11, 2011 - 10:15 PM

This post coincides with Friday’s release of an ASPI Insight paper by Lydia Khalil entitled Trends in a tumultuous region: Middle East after the Arab Awakening.

The Middle East has seen its share of troubles, but this tumultuous region is arguably going through its most transformative and turbulent time in its modern history. Two years ago, a wave of people power protests toppled numerous long-standing regimes in the region in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. It ushered in reforms and changes to many more. It was a hopeful and transformative time.

The hope was that the Middle East had finally found its path towards a more representative and prosperous future after decades of stagnation and dictatorships. This hope quickly soured. The removal of dictatorships created a power vacuum that was filled by political jockeying between Islamists and secularists, and by sectarianism and neo-militarism. With the possible exception of Tunisia, which has begun to adopt a more inclusive and reconciliatory approach to post Ben Ali governance, there have been no truth and reconciliation like approaches in any of the countries. Zero-sum politics maintains its grip, especially in Syria, which has devolved into a horrific civil war. Read more

Mining unites Western Australia and Africa

We were taken by the remarks of Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett at the recent Africa DownUnder (ADU) Conference in Perth. This was a rich and informed dinner talk at the ADU event, far from the usual ‘puff’ that we sometimes get at such occasions. Several African mining ministers listened as the Premier offered some principles that he believed were important in mining for both governments and industry.

What drives the WA economy is its mining industry: the value of its mining production last year was just under $100 billion and over 50% of Australian mining is in WA. The size of the industry means that the state dominates Australia’s exports and economic relationship with Asia, and Australia’s investment in mining in Africa. Read more

Dollars for Defence, or defence for dollars?

twilight on a gas fieldIn one of his first comments as the Defence Minister in Tony Abbott’s new government, David Johnston said that the ADF needs to be equipped to help safeguard regional sealanes. It’s easy to see this as a quaint notion which brings to mind the convoying of shipping to elude and deter U-Boat attacks in the Atlantic. But it’s probably a good idea to take the comment seriously as one sign of the new government’s philosophy.

The idea that the ADF needs to prioritise the maritime supply routes by which Australian gas and coal reach major East Asian markets (such as China, Korea and Japan) says something important about the Abbott era priorities. As I’ve argued over at The Interpreter, there’s a strong commercial dimension to the external policy of the new government. Almost all parts of the government machinery, including defence, will find themselves justifying their existence in terms of what they mean for the creation and protection of Australia’s capacity to generate wealth. Read more

ASPI suggests

HMAS Oxley, an Oberon class submarine - predecessor to the Collins class.The capabilities and numbers of Australian submarines are bound to be a major issue for the new Defence Minister. One of the major considerations will be the future of American submarine capabilities. And as far as our own subs go – Mark Thomson says that the new government should put all options for the future submarine back on the table.

Terrorism researcher J.M. Berger writes Foreign Policy piece on his fascinating yet strange relationship with a terrorist, Omar Hammami. Here’s a snippet:

But there was an unavoidable sense that there was a human being on the other side of the line, one who could well die in the middle of our conversation.

It weighed on me, and I couldn’t quite figure out if that was appropriate, all things considered. We were, after all, enemies, if you asked either of us. I was also dealing with him as a journalist, my role being to chronicle and not get involved.

Recently, China has made some noise telling the US to keep its nose out of the dispute with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands (here and here). ASPI Analyst Harry White writes in The National Interest that the US should do the opposite, and support Japan more explicitly. Read more