Asia Essentials: the great Chinese puzzle

China’s the great question mark, but its power isn’t in question. Pose this central conundrum of the Asia Essentials in the succinct terms of the question that Hillary Clinton put to PM Rudd in 2009: ‘How do you deal toughly with your banker’?

The words of Secretary Clinton encapsulate the American dilemma, facing a China which is both principal rival and chief economic partner. This shapes the associated Asia Essential: the US military role in Asia is still vital, but shifting relativities mean the US may no longer be the definitive power. Read more

The next evolution of 3D printing and the ADF

The Liberator is a physible, 3D-printable single shot handgun, the first such printable firearm design made widely available online.

Three-dimensional printing, also known as positive prototyping, represents a way to overcome the resource waste associated with manufacturing where items are cut to fit: it prints objects directly to specification. While the Australian debate about the potential value of 3D printing is slowly growing, the technology itself is rapidly advancing and has the potential to be a game changer for the ADF. As is evident from this infographic (PDF), 3D printing has already made significant contributions to industries such as aviation and medicine, where items ranging from aircraft parts to organs and cells have been printed. The US Army deployed two mobile fabrication labs to Afghanistan this year ‘to fabricate custom-designed fixes on the spot’. China has already included it in the development of its next-gen aircraft production. In fact, this technology has become so commonly available that eBay recently released Exact, an app that enables users to design and print their own 3D objects. These are but a few examples of a changing field in which the ADF could have a larger stake. Read more

Australia–Canada engagement and special operations forces

The canvas ‘Five Eyes’, painted by Corporal S, a Special Operations Task Group soldier deployed to Afghanistan, in honour of the enduring friendship of Special Forces Coalition partners.At first glance, the ASPI and CIGI push for Australia to help Canada engage our region to advance its economic interests doesn’t make much sense. Canada is doing nicely already—like in China for example (PDF)—and maybe should be helping us. And, economically, what has Canada—just like the Pythonesque Romans—ever done for us? Just ask the Big Australian: BHP-Billiton! Moreover, our new government seems keener on advancing our economic interests than someone else’s.

Peter Jennings’ argument however, is compelling. It’d be helpful to have another middle power at regional meetings. That’s enough of a shared objective to form the basis of our developing engagement strategy—although others suggest that stronger factors pulling Australia and Canada together are historical legacies and debts of gratitude, or our being similar countries with assumed similar interests (here and here). A consensus from recent events (PDF) is that some practical measures within existing frameworks are needed to advance this common objective rather than creating some new meeting opportunity—ASEAN already has plenty of those. Read more

We’ll be back tomorrow

It’s Family & Community Day here in Canberra so we’re off enjoying Floriade! We’ll be back tomorrow with our usual considered analysis, stats and graphs for your reading pleasure. The Strategist team

FloriadeImage courtesy of Flickr user Brenden Ashton.

ASPI suggests

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, accompanied by longtime Chinese translator James Brown, stand in front of the South Gate to Beihai Park and look at Bai Ta, or the White Pagoda, at Beihai Park in Beijing, China, on April 13, 2013. US Secretary of State John Kerry finds it hard to focus on Asia, writes Robert Kaplan.

John Kerry has made his choice. Chaos in the Middle East is more important to him than historic power shifts in Asia and Europe. Passion, rather than geopolitical vision, drives this Secretary of State.

But for all his and the President’s interest, the Middle East is a challenge. Even the get-out-of-jail-free card offered by the Russians over Syria might not go smoothly. The NYT has this piece on the challenges of chemical weapons disarmament in Syria. On the other Middle East story this week, the relationship between the US and Iran, here’s the handshake that wasn’t, hope, and scepticism for the Tehran-Washington thaw.

Meanwhile, even without Kerry’s attention, Asia surges forwards. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been in Washington, including a meeting with Kerry. Mr Wang also gave a speech at Brookings, on the ‘new model of great power relations’. Read more

Africa: a key battleground in global Islamist jihad

A Nigerian policeman walks by a newly built wall on a foot patrol near Lido beach in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu.

The African continent is a key battleground in the global Islamist jihad. The horrific terrorist attacks in Kenya this week perpetrated by al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab tragically highlight this fact. In the interests of Australia’s long-term national security we must, as a country, become more attuned with the threat that Africa-based Islamist militants pose to international security.

This means Australia needs to equip itself with greater knowledge of and increased engagements with our African neighbours. Our foreign policy must be truly global in nature in order to serve our security needs, not narrowly focused on the Asia–Pacific region. It is clearly evident that Islamist terrorist networks and groups have a very global outlook and their engagement with Africa has been astoundingly strategic. In my posts I usually discuss the opportunities which increased engagement with African countries offer Australia, however this must be combined with a focus on the threats which emanate from the region and which further neglect will only exacerbate.

A map of Africa illustrates just too clearly the extent of the threat Islamist militants pose to vast swathes of the continent. The UN Security Council fears the creation of an African ‘arc of instability’ or ‘terrorism arc’ spanning the Sahel and Sahara region and into the Horn of Africa. Read more

Considering Australia-Canada security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (parts 2 & 3)

The Pacific washes up on Canada's shores at Vancouver Island, British Columbia.Back in August, ASPI’s Tanya Olgivie-White commented on James Manicom’s analysis on Canada’s engagement in the Asia-Pacific. This was the first in a three-part collaborative effort on Australia–Canada security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific undertaken between ASPI and CIGI. In the first report James Manicom made a convincing case for closer cooperation with Australia.

Recently, Sarah Norgrove and John Blaxland completed the second and third pieces in the three-part report. Sarah’s paper, ‘Transnational challenges and future security cooperation’, claims that the possibilities for future Asia–Pacific security cooperation between Australia and Canada are promising. She presents a compelling argument that economic development and population growth mean that security challenges present themselves as opportunities. She argues that Australia and Canada are well positioned  to influence regional approaches to transnational challenges such as crime, terrorism, piracy and environmental degradation, and to contribute to food-, energy- and cyber-security. Read more

Indonesia: setting the tone

President SBY meeting with then Opposition Leader Tony Abbott in October 2012, Jakarta.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s visit to Indonesia, starting on 30 September, will set the tone for the bilateral relationship, at least for the first term of the Coalition Government. The stakes are high: Mr Abbott has repeatedly stressed that Indonesia is ‘our most important single relationship’. Pre-election comments about Australian operations in Indonesia designed to disrupt people smugglers have annoyed some Indonesians. But with the election won, calmer language now prevails. And the PM has been relentlessly on message about ties:

Three points. First of all, I have no argument with anyone in the Indonesian establishment or Parliament. My argument is with people smugglers and my point to the people smugglers is the game is up. The game is up. Second point I make is that we absolutely totally respect Indonesia’s sovereignty. Third point I make is that we aren’t going to conduct discussions with Indonesia through the media. Too much damage has been done in the past by megaphone diplomacy and it’s never going to happen under this Government.

Well, let’s hope so. Mr Abbott can expect a friendly and courteous welcome from President Yudhoyono, who’s long been a supporter of the bilateral relationship. For as long as he’s President, SBY can temper the views of individuals such as Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, who seems to have no such concerns about conducting discussions through the media. It’s often said that the next Indonesian President—whoever that may be—is unlikely to be as well disposed to Australia as SBY. That fear may well be exaggerated because pragmatic governments tend to find ways to deal with each other. But Mr Abbott would be wise to put the foundations in place for a strong bilateral relationship while SBY is still in power. Read more

Geek of the week 2: Mr Lanchester goes to Baghdad

U.S. Army Soldiers from 1st Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division clear a house during a mission to clear insurgent strongholds in Baghdad, Iraq, June 26, 2007.After last week’s post on Lanchester equations and the applications of mathematics to warfare, I was asked several questions by interested readers. Is there a version of this analysis for counter-insurgency (COIN)? How useful are these models given the acknowledged simplification behind them? Why don’t I get out more?

The third question is beyond the scope of this post, but after some thought and some (rusty) algebra, I think I can answer the first, and shed some light on the second in the process.

In COIN operations, there’s an inherent asymmetry between the two sides that has to be captured by the mathematical model. The way I thought about it, the COIN (blue) forces basically present themselves as an area target as they spread over the landscape, allowing the insurgents to attack at a time and place of their choosing. So the blue force losses depend on both the number of blues and the number of insurgents (red), and the appropriate equation for blue losses is Lanchester’s ‘unaimed fire’ equation (although the term ‘unaimed’ isn’t accurate in this case). The red forces, on the other hand, have to be treated as precision ‘point’ targets that have to be precisely located and engaged. Their losses should be described by the ‘aimed fire’ equation. (See the appendix below if you want the grisly details.) Read more

Myanmar: progress and challenges as a global citizen

The Uppatasanti Pagoda in Naypyidaw, Myanmar's capital. Myanmar looks like it’s set to continue following the international ‘rules of the road’, as it has just signed the Additional Protocol to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements, the implications of which are detailed in Tanya Ogilvie-White’s November 2012 Strategist piece. While this has been received as a positive step from the reforming pariah state, the proof will be in the ratification and domestic enforcement, which could take years to materialise.

The protocol was signed in the Vienna International Centre on the sidelines of the IAEA’s Annual Meeting on 17 September by Myanmar’s foreign minister Wunna Maung Lwin and IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano. It follows an IAEA workshop in Nay Pyi Taw on State Systems of Accounting for and Control of Nuclear Material. Read more