Debating Australia’s Air Warfare Destroyers

ACIFIC OCEAN (July 13, 2012) The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Paul Hamilton (DDG 60) launches a Standard Missile (SM 2) during a missile exercise as part of Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2012.A lively debate has emerged on Australia’s $8 billion acquisition of three Hobart-class Air Warfare Destroyers (AWDs*). Some see the possibility that the new government in Canberra might add another AWD to this procurement order—though ASPI’s Mark Thomson has done an excellent job of setting out the counter arguments. Others have criticised AWDs as being both overly expensive and unnecessary in light of advanced anti-ship weaponry, with Hugh White being among the most vocal.

White even proposed scrapping larger destroyers in favour of smaller vessels armed with anti-ship weapons. He doesn’t specify the exact size of these vessels, which makes it difficult to directly argue against. But clearly, he’s talking about vessels with significantly less displacement than the 7000-tonne AWD or the larger frigates that are staple of both the British and Canadian naval fleets. He likely envisions a surface fleet composed of relatively small frigates, such as the 3,000-tonne Anzac ships—without the more formidable capabilities provided by either the AWD or even the remaining Adelaide-class guided missile frigates, which the AWD is designed to replace.

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Banking on China’s democratic deficit

18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.The idea that China’s one-party state will eventually implode under the strains of authoritarianism’s inherent weaknesses might seem both reassuring and obvious.

Such an eventuality, the thinking goes, would be the inevitable upshot of China’s economic modernisation and the rise of an assertive middle-class, and would stand testament to the universal appeal and applicability of liberal democratic institutions.

Yet, as I argue in Accountable Authoritarianism: Why China’s Democratic Deficit Will Last, the severe challenges that are typically cited as evidence of the impending end of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule are not a product of authoritarianism’s shortcomings, while the CCP is well placed to tackle China’s mounting institutional, social, political and environmental problems.

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Asia’s military developments

Chinese Soldiers in The Forbidden City - Beijing.I’ve just got back from the Korber Foundation’s 154th Bergedorf roundtable in Jakarta. They set me the easy task of describing Asia’s five most significant military developments, along with their drivers and the confidence-building measures that could help manage associated risks. And they gave me ten minutes to do it.

So, dear reader, here is a whirlwind tour of significant Asian military developments. My criterion, given that the remit of the workshop was peace and security in the Asia–Pacific, was that the issues chosen had to have the potential to cause friction or—worst case—conflict if not managed carefully. Here’s my list:

1)      General increase in military capability and force modernisation as a result of increased industrial and economic power in the region

2)      Unmanned systems

3)      Offensive capabilities in cyberspace

4)      DPRK nuclear weapons

5)      PRC A2AD capability and the US AirSea Battle concept

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Defence and climate change: a reply

Anthony Bergin and Anthony Press’ recent post ‘Defence and Climate Change‘ is right on the money. Defence needs to do more than it’s already doing to prepare the ADF to face the challenges of a warming planet. All of the authors’ recommendations should be taken on board. But I fear that Bergin and Press don’t go far enough in their post.

A warming climate and shifts in rainfall patterns are only part of the challenge that has begun to transform our planet. In fact, there’s nothing new about the climate changing—its documentation in the historical, anthropological and geologic record is widespread and should convince all of its existence. Its novelty is only in the eyes of our current generation whose memory doesn’t extend far enough into the past.

The greatest danger posed by climate change isn’t the warming or the changes in rainfall patterns. Rather it’s the effect these events will have on the fabric of society. The risks of climate change must be seen as a two-step process. First are the changes in the existing parameters of the physical world to which humanity has adapted. As these changes occur societies must adapt to the new environment. This has happened many times in the past in previous climate change events. Those societies that manage to adapt survive. Those that do not, don’t. Read more

The leaving of Afghanistan: ‘no sense of defeat’

Australian Army soldiers from the Special Operations Task Group wave goodbye to the families of Australia's fallen after a ceremony at Multi National Base – Tarin Kot, southern Afghanistan.As with Vietnam, the Australian military will leave Afghanistan believing it won its bit of the war, even if the Afghanistan war is eventually judged a disaster. This is the limited right of small alliance partners to claim small victories, even if the total effort fails.

The Army can sit close to the shade of the farewell epitaph offered by the Prime Minister:

Australia’s longest war is ending, not with victory, not with defeat, but with, we hope, an Afghanistan that’s better for our presence here.

The Liberal and Labor Party joint interest in not disturbing their unbroken political consensus on Afghanistan, discussed in the previous column, will aid an Army interpretation that it fought a good war and brought it to a good end. Read more

ASPI suggests

Further revelations of US intelligence activity, including tapping of friendly world leaders phones, has put Washington’s intelligence community on the defensive. The Economist writes:

On October 29th, realising that the political mood in Washington was, in the words of one security official, ‘turning ugly’, the NSA’s boss, General Keith Alexander, and the director of national intelligence, James Clapper, came out slugging. Giving evidence to a congressional committee, both men vigorously denied that the agency had ‘gone rogue’.

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Dialing down the espionage outrage

NSA Headquarters, Fort Meade, MarylandJulian Assange and Edward Snowden have provided manna from heaven for the army of journalists and editors besotted by spy stories. Sensational disclosures of government secrets and spying activities are splashed all over the media on the assumption that readers, viewers and listeners cannot resist glimpses into the hidden world of international relations.

In the latest episodes, phone-tapping disclosures have had US president Barak Obama on the defensive as wounded allies, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Francoise Hollande, demand explanations. Predictably, stories are now emerging that Australia, America’s loyal provincial lapdog, assists Washington’s international eavesdropping operations. Read more

Foreign policy: PANDORA slays the dragon

A recent media report that the Australia in the Asian Century White Paper has been removed from DFAT’s website is correct. The White Paper now resides at Australia’s web archive, known as PANDORA, perhaps in a box marked ‘not to be opened’. Not too much should be read into this development: a new government’s arrival leads to the wholesale archiving of the previous government’s web content. PANDORA has over 200 million archived files, some 9.1 terabytes of data. For its part, DFAT retains active links to the five ‘Asian century country strategies’—in effect the only tangible products to emerge from the White Paper’s Byzantine planning framework.

The Coalition’s policy statement for foreign affairs released during the election campaign makes no mention of the White Paper, but does commit to a ‘focus on the Asia-Pacific region’ and later to what it calls the ‘Asia-Pacific-Indian Ocean region’. No Australian government could really do otherwise—even in the cyber century, geography still counts for something. So we should expect a large amount of bipartisanship on foreign policy, at least in terms of the countries and regions where we should focus diplomatic effort. That said, it’s not surprising that a new government has shelved an old policy. The Asian Century White Paper was a brand simply too closely associated with Julia Gillard to ever survive the change to Abbott, or even Rudd.

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Why Indonesia will side with the US (despite its ‘non-alignment’ policy)

President Barack Obama meets with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono during a bilateral meeting at the Istana Merdeka State Palace Complex in Jakarta, Indonesia, Nov. 9, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)This week, I participated in the 39th meeting of the Australian Member Committee of the Council for Security Co-operation in the Asia-Pacific (Aus-CSCAP) in Darwin. This year’s theme was the US ‘rebalance’ and Southeast Asia, with a specific focus on the implications for Australia–Indonesia defence cooperation.

Comprising officials, academics and journalists from both countries, the discussions were open, frank and refreshing. For me, one of the key messages during the meeting was that Indonesia increasingly sees defence cooperation with the US as both a strategic and a tactical asset amid power shifts in Southeast Asia. My clear impression was that, if push comes to shove, Jakarta will side with Washington against Beijing’s attempt to establish a hegemonic position in Southeast Asia. Read more

Cyber wrap

German Chancellor Angela MerkelThis week the fallout from the leak of classified NSA documents continued, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her outrage at the revelation the US had been tapping her phone for up to ten years, telling reporters that ‘Spying against friends is not acceptable against anyone.’ However, Spiegel Online questioned Merkel’s sincerity, as it emerged that Merkel had resisted the passage of EU-wide data protection framework that would fine companies found to be passing data to intelligence agencies.

US intelligence agencies have continued to justify their activities, and are facing mounting opposition, including from usual ally Senator Dianne Feinstein, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper defended the tapping of world leader’s communications, telling the House of Representatives Intelligence Panel that ‘Leadership intentions is kind of a basic tenet of what we collect and analyse‘. NSA chief General Keith Alexander testified that reports that the NSA collected intelligence on European citizens was ‘Completely false‘, and that much of the data cited as being so was actually provided by European intelligence services to the US. Read more