ASPI and ORF to host ‘Raisina @ Sydney’ on 18 February

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and India’s Observer Research Foundation (ORF) are proud to announce the inaugural Raisina @ Sydney Dialogue on 18 February to discuss the Australia-India relationship and how the two countries can further deepen their close collaboration and contribution to a free, open and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

Raisina @ Sydney will involve ministerial and high-level government representation, as well as industry and civil society participation. It will include panel and keynote speeches with leading regional thinkers on geopolitics, technology and economics. 

With India chairing the G20, Raisina @ Sydney will be a G20 outreach event that leads into the G20 Ministerial meeting on 1 March in Delhi. The event will bring together, and build momentum for, two of the Indo-Pacific’s influential foreign policy, security and technology dialogues—the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi from March 2-4 and The Sydney Dialogue on April 4-5.

The Raisina Dialogue, held since 2016, is the Indo-Pacific’s premier conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics. The Sydney Dialogue, being held for the second time, has already built a reputation as the foremost international forum on critical and emerging technologies.

The inaugural Raisina @ Sydney event comes at a time of increased global uncertainty and when the formation of strategic networks to enhance understanding and build relationships is more important than it has been in generations. The Indo-Pacific is going through a period of profound change, bringing risk as well as great opportunity. Forums that bring together government, business and civil society are critical to increasing public awareness, to mitigating the risks and taking advantage of the opportunities for the benefit of the entire region.

As major Indo-Pacific democracies and members of the Quad, Australia and India have a growing relationship that has expanded and deepened in recent years and continues to do so under the leadership of the Australian and Indian governments.

ASPI Executive Director Justin Bassi said: “ASPI is thrilled to partner with such a prestigious organisation as ORF and help set the agenda for 2023 ahead of The Sydney Dialogue and Raisina in New Delhi. We look forward to bringing together key players for discussions on Indo-Pacific geostrategy, economics, industry and critical technology, so important to Australia and our near region.”

ORF President Samir Saran said: “The India-Australia partnership anchors stability and growth in the Indo-Pacific and offers exciting opportunities for the two peoples. We, at ORF, are delighted to partner with ASPI to host the Raisina Dialogue in Sydney and co-curate discussions and ideas on the most important aspects of our world today.”

ASPI DC partnered with AmCham

On January 19th ASPI DC partnered with AmCham to convene a roundtable on ‘How Australia and the United States can Secure Semiconductor Supply Chains’, which focused on the recommendations of ASPI’s 2022 report Australia’s National Semiconductor Moonshot. The event was hosted in Washington DC with a virtual element for Australian participants, and attended by Australian Ambassador, Arthur Sinodinos.

Alex Capri, author of the ASPI 2022 report, moderated the two-part discussion with assistance from co-author, Robert Clark. The roundtable was attended by senior government officials from Australia and the US, industry and academia, and produced insights into the importance of a skilled workforce for the semiconductor supply chain. These findings have informed a subsequent report on talent pipeline development in aid of the national semiconductor moonshot, which will be published by ASPI in late 2023.

The Sydney Dialogue to return in April

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute is pleased to announce that the second Sydney Dialogue for emerging, critical, cyber and space technologies will be held on 4-5 April 2023.

The Sydney Dialogue, established to meet the need for a flagship international forum on cyber and critical technologies, has quickly built a reputation for bringing together the top thinkers and decision-makers from governments, industry, academia and civil society for strategic discussion and debates which continue to shape the global policy environment.

First held in 2021, the Dialogue recognises that technology is reshaping societies and economies in every part of the world, and nowhere is that more acute than in the Indo-Pacific region. It is being developed and applied so quickly, within an increasingly intense geopolitical landscape, that neither laws nor international consensus on rules and norms are keeping up.

The rapid innovation in areas such as cyber, artificial intelligence, big data, biotechnology, space and quantum computing create enormous opportunities for solving urgent, real-world problems and for establishing sectors of the economy not previously imagined. However, the pace of growth and innovation carries risks, such as the misuse of technology by rogue and authoritarian states and criminal organisations.

The safe and stable advance of technology requires a coordinated international effort. No government, company or civil society organisation can meet the vast array of challenges alone. This is why The Sydney Dialogue is once again bringing together leading players to discuss the opportunities and risks, foster ideas and initiatives, and ultimately find solutions that ensure technology is used for the benefit of all people, consistent with universal human rights.

ASPI is very pleased to have the strong support of the Australian Government for The Sydney Dialogue 2023. Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence, the Honourable Richard Marles MP acknowledged that: “Technology is a growing pillar of Australia’s global partnerships and a critical part of ensuring our defence capabilities are fit for purpose. As we face the most challenging strategic circumstances in decades, this cooperation is increasingly vital to maintaining our national security.

“It is essential for like-minded nations and actors to come together to harness the best of technology for the benefit of all, which is why I am pleased to see Australia host The Sydney Dialogue in 2023, and I congratulate ASPI on convening it.”

Australia’s Minister for Home Affairs and Cyber Security, the Honourable Clare O’Neil MP noted: “Critical and emerging technologies can help address some of the greatest shared challenges the world faces – including climate change, energy security and pandemics. However, there are also inherent risks.

“Hostile and authoritarian states are using technological developments to gain advantage and further their political agendas. The Sydney Dialogue will play an important role in bringing together leaders from government, industry, and academia to ensure critical technologies make the lives of our citizens more secure, prosperous and rewarding.”

The inaugural Dialogue was held virtually in 2021 because of global Covid-19 restrictions. It featured keynote addresses from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The 2023 Dialogue will be held in-person and will be invitation-only. It will feature leading decision-makers and experts who are willing to break new ground in discussing technologies that will shape the future. The Dialogue will stimulate frank conversations about the roles for governments, industry and society in shifting away from the business-as-usual international mindset on technology.

On the agenda is cyber and digital governance, space and the geopolitical implications of expanding human activity off-earth, technology game-changers, technologies that shape war, technological competition and strategic advantage, and the role of technology and innovation in advancing human rights, climate action and human security.

Justin Bassi, the Executive Director of ASPI, said: “ASPI is proud to host what might be our most ambitious project yet, The Sydney Dialogue 2023, and attempt to bridge the gaps that have opened up. Importantly, as the leading annual global forum for technology policy, we will focus on opportunities as much as risks. We look forward to welcoming delegates from around the world to Sydney in early April to lead coordinated global policy responses to the challenges we face now, and those ahead.”

More information and updates on The Sydney Dialogue can be found at tsd.aspi.org.au.

ASPI DC hosts dialogue on ‘Paradiplomacy, Defence and National Security: Implications for the US-Australia alliance’

On December 13th, ASPI DC hosted the day-long dialogue ‘Paradiplomacy, Defence and National Security: Implications for the US-Australia alliance’. The event was attended widely by Australian and US government officials, and academic experts on subnational engagement and US foreign policy. Participants engaged strongly in discussion and identified potential avenues for greater economic and political collaboration across the US and Australian systems. Similar actions by adversaries utilizing paradiplomacy as a tool for state craft was also discussed. The importance of Australia and the US coordinating increased engagement at state and local government levels in areas of critical importance, such as critical minerals, education and technology supply chains was highlighted.

This dialogue is part of a wider body of work being undertaken by the ASPI DC office that aims to highlight to policymakers in both the US and Australia how they can better utilise the federal system to ensure mutually beneficial economic, political and security outcomes are achieved.

Iain MacGillivray was interviewed by the Georgetown University podcast Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues

On November 16th, ASPI DC Analyst, Iain MacGillivray was interviewed by the Georgetown University podcast Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues. The episode, China leans on pragmatism in the Middle East, unpacks the complexities of China’s perception by Middle Eastern states and explored the notion that China might displace the regional security role played by the US.

How will the midterms affect US foreign policy and Australia’s strategic interests?

On 8 November, Americans will vote in midterm congressional elections to determine all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate. Despite the political theatre, Australians should take heart.

Recent discussions between ASPI DC and congressional committee staff members serving both Democratics and Republicans in both the House and Senate suggest that the looming presidential election in 2024 and the likely focus of congressional committee hearings on topics far from the Indo-Pacific region—such as funding for the war in Ukraine and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021—appear all-engrossing.

But in a new ASPI report we found that next week’s midterms should not negatively affect the Australia–US alliance and the core interests that underpin its success.

While a foreign policy mandate or change in general direction is unlikely to occur, the possible shuffle of congressional committee leadership may facilitate or curb the passage and implementation of policies that address Australian concerns. Canberra should therefore be highly attuned to the changes in the structure and membership of committees, which are the bodies that have a significant influence on the formation of US foreign policy.

Currently, the Democratic Party holds the majority in the House and, with the tie-breaking vote of the vice president, holds an effective majority in the Senate. President Joe Biden’s newly released national security strategy and national defence strategy demonstrate bipartisan consensus and continuity with the previous administration on threats posed in the Indo-Pacific region. The Congress has shown the same commitment through broad consensus to support and work with key allies such as Australia on these issues.

There are three possible outcomes of the midterm elections: the status quo is maintained, with a marginal Democrat hold in both the Senate and the House; a split Congress emerges where the Senate is held by one party and the House by the other; or the Republicans take both the Senate and the House.

A status quo outcome is least likely, but if this scenario comes to pass and the Democrats retain control of both chambers, Congress may empower the Biden administration to introduce policies and laws with less consultation or cooperation with the Republicans. It may also see reduced Republican willingness to offer bipartisanship in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. The Republican Party would probably seek to blame a Democrat-led Congress and White House for any domestic troubles, such as an economic downturn or energy shortages. That domestic disruption could spill into foreign affairs if, for example, US domestic politics is seen as outweighing US resourcing of Ukraine in its war with Russia.

In the second scenario, in which one party has the numbers in the House and the other has the numbers in the Senate, the Biden administration won’t be able to push through controversial legislation by sheer weight of numbers. However, a Republican win in either chamber (but not both chambers) and committees that change accordingly could stall legislation and lead to congressional gridlock as each side tries to advance its own agenda in the lead-up to 2024.

A split Congress will likely view foreign policy legislation and oversight activity through a lens of domestic politics and partisanship. In this scenario, we expect to see partisanship between the two chambers and within the individual committees, which may lead to reduced agreement. Precedent indicates that there’s likely to be more cooperation in committees that are working directly and collaboratively on foreign policy than in the broader theatre of the chambers. That could change quickly if, for example, resourcing Ukraine in the war in Europe loses popularity domestically.

An agreement such as AUKUS depends on it being both a domestic and a foreign policy priority. Congress will continue to strongly support AUKUS. However, new policies for the second pillar of AUKUS’s work program (advanced capabilities such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and hypersonics) may become harder to develop due to overlap between domestic and foreign policy. Domestic battles may also rank above foreign policy considerations.

Support for ongoing US prioritisation of the Indo-Pacific will remain bipartisan. However, there may be more political debate on the level of simultaneous US resourcing to counter Russia’s war in the Euro-Atlantic and China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific. That will depend in part on the partisan and personal predilections of committee and subcommittee chairs.

In the third possibility, which is looking more likely as the midterms near, a Republican Congress, emboldened by an electoral win, would have incentives to challenge the Biden administration. The Republicans would be in a stronger position to introduce and attempt to pass legislation. It’s highly probable that Republican oversight would hinder the administration’s making of political appointments, including US ambassadors. The appointment process is already hindered by committee rules, but Republican oversight would further stymie hearings.

Republican political clout may not necessarily reduce bipartisan cooperation and compromise on foreign and defence policy more broadly—at least not before the presidential election campaign gets underway in mid-2023. There is an overall strong consensus to make foreign policy work, and there would likely be a six-month window of opportunity for cooperation, provided neither branch of government puts forward policies unacceptable to the other.

Awareness of this closing window for cooperation ahead of the presidential campaign season could even increase compromise and bipartisanship over that period. Notably, the Biden administration has overcome these challenges by successfully reaching across the aisle on foreign policy issues (for example, with the recent passage of the ‘CHIPS and Science Act’).

Polls suggests the Republicans will win a majority in the House and could also control the Senate, with the economy and cost of living as the dominant election issues. If that happens, both parties will focus on domestic political needs, requiring Australia to work even harder to keep attention on our priorities. That would mean regularly highlighting Indo-Pacific issues for distracted American lawmakers who, besides their focus on China, will be occupied with the war in Ukraine.

Canberra will also need to encourage presidential and vice-presidential attendance at Indo-Pacific meetings and push for early congressional visits to Australia and the region from members of the new foreign affairs, defence and armed services committees.

In the less likely event that the Democrats hold both chambers, the Biden administration would have more room to move on foreign policy.

Whatever the outcome, it’s in the US’s interest to prioritise the Indo-Pacific even as it manages challenges at home and in Europe. The kind of intimate relationship that Australia needs with the US to strengthen its security and sovereignty requires Australian politicians and policymakers—as well as key civil society and industry actors—to continue putting in time and resources and not rely on an expectation that this critical alliance will manage itself.

ASPI DC provide expertise to MITRE on Indo-Pacific Wargaming exercise

On November 2nd and 3rd, ASPI DC Analysts, Greg Brown, Bronte Munro and Iain MacGillivray participated in MITRE’s Sage Dragon exercise re: influence competition in the Pacific. The team provided unique insights into Australia’s strategic outlook in the region and helped informed allied decision making in the hypothetical scenarios.

Despite progress, major challenges lie ahead for AUKUS

Discussions during a trilogy of AUKUS-related events in Washington on the one-year anniversary of the deal’s announcement suggest the novel strategic partnership is about much more than submarines, the transfer of nuclear propulsion know-how and Anglosphere chumminess.

Political officials, scholars and practitioners gathered last week under the auspices of ASPI, the Center for New American Security and the Centre for Grand Strategy at King’s College London to identify key successes and primary challenges for the partnership.

The political leadership in all three countries appears fully aboard with AUKUS—the deal has survived a change in government in Australia and a change in prime minister in the UK—and officials describe levels of cooperation not seen since World War II to streamline advanced technology sharing. Participating officials described AUKUS as a new paradigm of defence integration across a broad spectrum of advanced technologies to maintain scientific and engineering advantages while improving a collective defence posture among the three countries.

For the US, this project represents an overdue shift of attention to the Indo-Pacific and a determined effort to make good on longstanding promises of a geostrategic pivot to the region and the looming Chinese threat with the help of steadfast partners. It also portends a change in the American approach to alliance capability sharing. AUKUS helps to further anchor Australia in the American defence orbit and should make Beijing think hard about how to respond to a Canberra that’s increasingly willing to push back against Chinese aggression. In the UK, the AUKUS agreement is seen as necessary to show strength alongside allies with shared interests and values, but also as part of the UK’s new ‘global Britain’ strategy in the wake of its departure from the EU.

The much-publicised submarine component of the pact—so-called pillar 1—appears to be moving forward apace. All parties expect that a plan to provide Australia with nuclear-propelled submarines will be announced, as scheduled, in March. The details are being held close by officials, but a year into talks, confidence is growing that delivery may occur earlier than the parties expected at the beginning of discussions. Besides the actual capacity-enhancing propulsion technology transfer, AUKUS partners see pillar 1 as a ‘big bet’ signal that will demonstrate a capacity to meet the defence coordination challenges of the second pillar, relating to artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other emerging technologies.

The decision of the AUKUS partners to take their case for the sharing of nuclear-propulsion technology to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the interests of transparency, and the response from most of the international community to consider, accept or support the argument in good faith, portend success for pillar 1. Some allies and partners have expressed concerns about AUKUS’s effects on nuclear proliferation and possible further destabilisation of the Indo-Pacific, but the Chinese information campaign to discredit AUKUS has so far failed to gain much traction.

Despite widespread support for AUKUS and a desire for its success, three pressing issues were repeatedly raised throughout the discussions.

First, there is a lack of clarity around AUKUS’s strategic purpose and what each partner aims to achieve. The inability to define specific, shared goals beyond banalities of protecting the ‘rules-based order’ or technology sharing to ‘deter Chinese aggression’ may belie a failure to identify different threat perceptions and risk appetites, which, if accounted for, help determine how to rank the technologies that are critical to advancing specific interests for each partner.

Does AUKUS strengthen integrated deterrence against a common threat, namely China, or may some technology transfers—even discussion of them—trigger escalation in some scenarios? If power projection is itself a goal for one or more of the partners, pillar 2 activities need tailoring. It is understandable that more time is needed here given that the efforts under pillar 1 are the initial priority. Determining metrics for measuring AUKUS’s worth is necessary before making any further claims of success, however.

Second, the story of AUKUS—or lack of one—also poses a challenge. The narrative on the need for the deal in the first place hasn’t really registered beyond nuclear submarines meeting Australia’s defence needs, resulting in confusion from regional allies and partners, and giving rise to concerns that AUKUS could destabilise the Indo-Pacific region. Canberra, London and Washington need to have explicit and uncomplicated discussions with allies and partners about what they intend the deal to accomplish more broadly.

Is AUKUS a trial run for a similar, future initiative with Japan, France or other countries in the Indo-Pacific? The potential for Chinese disinformation to colour perceptions of the deal will grow the longer that the AUKUS members delay announcements and fail to fully explain its parameters and objectives. This effort will require the AUKUS partners to gain a more comprehensive understanding of why allies and friends may be sceptical, regardless of Chinese influence.

Finally, a major concern is the failure so far of AUKUS partners to assess the role of commercial industry, supply chains and broader society in enabling pillar 2 to succeed. Shared bureaucratic, legal and practical infrastructure is needed to support sustained advanced technology sharing across myriad critical technologies—all of which are at various stages of development. Each partner needs to conduct a comprehensive review of its supply chains and skills gaps to ensure shared technology is utilised and retained.

Pillar 2 is fundamentally different from pillar 1. A top-down approach needs grassroots support for AUKUS to succeed. Pillar 2 exceeds the scope of traditional defence capability sharing, and this alone will necessitate creative and uncomfortable changes at all levels to ensure its success. Long-term momentum may be difficult to sustain without greater industry and civil-society stakes in AUKUS’s development and a better understanding of its potential benefits. Domestic diplomacy will need the support of think tanks, educational institutions and ‘track 2’ planning to clarify and refine AUKUS over time.

ASPI launches Washington DC office

Australia’s first overseas think tank presence was officially opened today by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister of Australia, the Hon Richard Marles MP.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has gained global attention for its research and today launched its office in Washington DC.

The Deputy Prime Minister said, ‘in so many ways, the product of ASPI is critically important, not only in informing the Australian public, but those of us in government who seek to play a role in this space.’

On the importance of think tanks, Marles stated: ‘for those of us who believe in democracies, it’s really important that the value of modern democracies is advocated.’

ASPI Executive Director, Justin Bassi, said ‘as one of the most important US allies, it’s important Australia is competing in this marketplace, and providing US decision makers and the US public with a perspective from the most critical part of the world.’

ASPI’s Washington presence will be led by Mark Watson, a former lawyer and diplomat with over thirty years experience in international relations and national security.

ASPI’s DC office will build on its existing great reputation in the United States by serving a unique role as an authoritative Australian voice in the American capital for think tank perspectives on Australian security, defence and foreign policy.

COCONUT WIRELESS – Dr Anthony Bergin, ASPI

This interview with Dr Anthony Bergin, Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is the first of a series focused on Australia-United States relations as a result of the AUKUS security deal signed in September 2021 exploring how the AUKUS deal opened potential for business and investment opportunities for Australian business to partner with US firms in the Pacific.

Click here to view the video.

Information about membership of the Australia Pacific Islands Business Council is available here.