Mice that Roar

This report argues that over the past five years, there’s been an increase in coastguard and maritime border response capabilities across much of ASEAN. ASEAN states have primarily focused their new capabilities on enhancing physical presence patrols and response within their respective exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Coastguards have become important strategic cushions between navies in ASEAN.

Underpinning this regional maritime strategic trend is an assumption that coastguard vessels are less threatening, in terms of their potential use of force, to the captains and crews of other nations’ vessels during unplanned encounters at sea. It isn’t all plain sailing for this model. Emboldening fishing fleets, coastguards or militias by removing the risk of a military response to aggressive actions in others’ jurisdictions may well be a negative for the maritime security of ASEAN nations.

The report highlights an opportunity for Australia to cooperate and collaborate with partners across the region on surveillance, maritime domain awareness (MDA) and maritime patrols.

Australia’s strategic relationship with the US ensures that Chinese leaders pay close attention to its diplomatic and military activities in ASEAN. The promotion of greater regional coastguard cooperation won’t deeply offend Chinese Government sensitivities, it will attract Chinese Government attention because it is against the Chinese state’s preferred bilateral engagement model, and because it may be effective in creating regional cohesion in dealing with maritime security issues. These efforts will send a clear message to Beijing that the region is taking measures to protect the sovereignty of its waters.

Anti-Money Laundering. A case study

The Australian Government’s technological monopolies have ended. Technological developments, especially those that have been disruptive, have been driven primarily by private corporations for at least the past 10 years. Meanwhile, legislative responses to those changes, be they disruptive or otherwise, have been increasingly delayed.

Acceleration in the development and use of technology has been matched by changes in the capability of those who would do us harm. In the face of rapid social change, governments have lost more than a technological edge, as the very conceptualisations of sovereignty and geographical jurisdictions are being challenged. Law enforcement agencies’ traditional business models for dealing with organised crime are under significant pressure from threat actors that are able to operate more agile decision-making cycles and exploit seams between jurisdictions and in law enforcement agencies’ capabilities.

In this context, Australian law enforcement agencies face an increasing number of challenges from emergent technologies. A key policy challenge underpinning these issues relates to the limited capacity of law enforcement to introduce innovative strategies in response to disruptive technology. Another is how to make cross-jurisdictional cooperation simpler and easier.

ASPI’s latest Special Report by Dr John Coyne and Ms Amelia Meurant-Tompkinson, explores technological innovation in law enforcement through a specific crime type case study of anti-money laundering (AML) provisions. It analyses the factors that support or restrict technological innovation in federal law enforcement’s AML efforts and argues that the current ecosystem for innovation for AML needs to be enhanced to engage with the dual challenge of disruptive technology, and the integration of existing pockets of AML excellence into a holistic whole-of-government innovation program. The initial steps for responding to this challenge should include an analysis of the central assumptions that underpin innovation, policymaking, strategy and finance in this space.

In this video, Madeleine Nyst discusses the report with John Coyne and Amelia Meurant-Tompkinson.

A primer on the ideological and theological drivers of AQ and Daesh: al-Qaedaism

In 2018, it’s more appropriate to see al-Qaeda as not only a terrorist group, albeit one that’s less engaged in mass-casualty attacks but as the progenitor and promoter of a distinct theological–historical–political ideology.

This special report aims to explain the persistent and enduring allure of al-Qaedaism as an ideology that is apocalyptic and conspiratorial.

By understanding al-Qaedaism, we could better counter the violence that it perpetrates, inspires and advocates and recognize that we’re engaging in a cosmic, generational conflict, led by individuals who corrupt the key tenets of Islam.

Counterterrorism Yearbook 2018

The Counter Terrorism Yearbook is ASPI’s annual flagship publication curated by the Counter Terrorism Policy Centre, now in its second year of publication.

It is a comprehensive resource for academics and policymakers to build on their knowledge of counterterrorism developments in countries and regions around world.

Each chapter in the Yearbook is written by internationally renowned subject matter and regional experts, who provide their insight and commentary on counterterrorism policy, legislation, operations and strategy for a specific country/region, concerning the year in review, and looking at challenges for the year ahead.

3rd Australia-Europe Counter-Terrorism Dialogue: ‘Transforming the New Threat Landscape’

Europe and Australia are connected in many ways. As liberal democratic societies, they share a common normative foundation of values that set the parameters for what the state may or may not do.

Based on that background, in September 2017 a delegation from Australia composed of practitioners, policymakers and academics travelled to Germany and Belgium to participate in the 3rd Australian Strategic Policy Institute – Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Australia–Europe Counterterrorism Dialogue, entitled Transforming the New Threat Landscape.

Understanding the BRI in Africa and the Middle East

This Strategic Insight aims to expand on Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith’s powerful, provocative paper, Australia’s management of strategic risk in the new era. Dibb and Brabin-Smith, two of Australia’s leading strategic thinkers, examined China’s growing assertiveness in our region. Here, I look beyond our region and beyond China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative (BRI) to highlight how China is expanding its influence in Africa and the Middle East. I examine some selected cases, such as Zimbabwe, Israel, Turkey and Iran. I also try to situate the BRI in President Xi Jinping’s grand strategy.

Preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa: mining and Australia’s interests

Australia has commercial and strategic interests in helping to prevent and counter violent extremism in Africa. Australian mining companies are engaged across the continent in Mali, Burkina Faso, Kenya and many other countries where there have been high-profile terrorist attacks and kidnappings of foreign nationals, including Australians. Those threats already affect the way Australian mining companies approach their operations on the continent. With rising risks to Australian nationals, businesses and foreign investment through the mining industry, violent extremism in Africa is a direct threat to Australian national interests.

Drawing on the findings of a newly published in-depth report, Preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa: The role of the mining sector, this paper examines how the Australian mining sector should step up efforts aimed at preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) in Africa. While the report notes that mining projects present risks that can exacerbate some of the drivers of violent extremism, it also highlights the potential to leverage the work of mining projects as a bulwark against violent extremism.

This paper shows that there’s scope for further cooperation and engagement with the Australian Government in the mining sector. The potential of the private sector in P/CVE remains underexplored. Consequently, the mining sector has an opportunity to lead by example in this field.

Preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa: the role of the mining sector

Terrorism and violent extremism remain significant threats to international peace and security. Although few countries have been immune, Africa has been particularly susceptible. Weak institutions, porous borders, inadequately trained or ill-equipped security forces, historical grievances and a lack of economic opportunities have created conditions for extremist ideologies to grow and persist in parts of the continent.

“The global effort to prevent violent extremism can’t succeed without the private sector. This report explains why, and how to incorporate this essential partner.”

Dr Khalid Koser MBE
Executive Direct
Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF)

To date, most counterterrorism efforts have been security and intelligence led, with an emphasis on military and kinetic strategies to ‘defeat’ terrorism. Over the past decade in particular, global efforts have also focused on strategies for preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE), particularly on the role of international institutions, governments, regional organisations and communities. While several international frameworks for counterterrorism, for example the UN Secretary-General’s Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism, have recognised the important role of the private sector in prevention measures, there’s been little research and analysis exploring the specificity and mechanisms of private sector involvement. This report by ASPI, in cooperation with Hedayah, uses a case study of the mining sector in Africa to examine how the private sector does and can engage in P/CVE efforts.

This report explores the correlation between the drivers of violent extremism and the different activities undertaken throughout a mining project’s life cycle in order to identify potential risks and opportunities. It examines the role of the mining sector in actions to address violent extremism, identifying preliminary lessons and best practices from the research. Finally, it provides recommendations for mining companies, the industry, governments and communities on approaches to engage mining companies in P/CVE efforts.

The report is accompanied by a second paper that draws on the findings and examines how the Australian mining sector should step up efforts aimed at preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa. See Preventing and countering violent extremism in Africa: Mining and Australia’s interests.

Australia’s management of strategic risk in the new era.

Australia’s strategic outlook is deteriorating and, for the first time since World War II, we face an increased prospect of threat from a major power.

This means that a major change in Australia’s approach to the management of strategic risk is needed.

People Smugglers Globally 2017

The global drivers for the irregular movement of people, from human security to economics, are growing, not dissipating.

In 2016, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that there were 65.6 million ‘forcibly displaced people worldwide’, 22.5 million refugees and 10 million stateless people.

Globally, there are some 767 million people living below the poverty line. In Africa alone, there are some 200 million people ‘aged between 15–24 and this will likely double by 2045’. While these figures are startling, the fact that in 2016 only 189,300 refugees were resettled highlights the scale of the likely demand for irregular migration.

Much has been said and published on irregular migration from the perspective of the migrant. In the process, it has become politically expedient to homogenise perceptions of people smugglers.

This new ASPI report focuses on people-smuggling syndicates globally.

The report provides a concise analysis of the various people-smuggling syndicates operating in the globe’s people smuggling hot-spots. This authoritative report provides a concise analysis of each people smuggling hot-spot, with accompanying policy recommendations for interventions.