Time to start worrying again? Cross-strait stability after the 2016 Taiwanese elections

The study argues that the Taiwan Strait will remain dangerous and that Canberra needs to pay closer attention to the evolving cross-strait situation. Of crucial importance is the question of whether Australia should support its US ally in a future Taiwan contingency.

The report calls for a comprehensive dialogue between Canberra and Washington to avoid a future ‘expectation gap’ on the Taiwan issue. As well, Australia should acknowledge Taiwan’s potentially constructive role in regional maritime territorial disputes. Finally, Canberra should proactively take steps to enhance Taiwan’s regional political and economic integration as a means to contribute to long-term cross-strait stability.

Revising the UN Peacekeeping Mandate in South Sudan: Maintaining Focus on the Protection of Civilians

Civil war has raged in South Sudan for two years. Horrific atrocities continue to be committed against the civilian population by both primary parties to the conflict as the United Nations mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has struggled to protect civilians within and beyond its protection of civilians (POC) sites.

This report by the Stimson Center and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute examines the challenges UNMISS has faced in its efforts to protect civilians from physical violence despite the priority and focus of the revised mandate that was adopted following the outbreak of civil war in December 2013.

This report offers recommendations for stakeholders to consider as part of the upcoming mandate review that will take place in December 2015, as well as lessons for future reviews.

Chinese investment in the Port of Darwin: A strategic risk for Australia?

Few strategic issues have galvanised public attention in Australia as the decision by the Northern Territory Government to lease key facilities in the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company, Landbridge. This Strategic Insights brings together items published on our blog The Strategist as well as articles by ASPI staff published in other media outlets such as The Australian and The Australian Financial Review. The authors are Paul Barnes, Sam Bateman, Allan Behm, Phoebe Benich, Anthony Bergin, Patrick Cronin, Neil James, Peter Jennings, Geoff Wade, and Feng Zhang. Our aim is to bring this material into an accessible format, in part, to assist the deliberations of the Senate Economic References Committee which, over January and February 2016, is conducting an inquiry into the foreign investment review framework including with reference to the Port of Darwin lease.

The Port of Darwin lease highlights an urgent need to review how Australia takes account of its national security interests in making decisions about foreign investment.

No exit: Next steps to help promote South Pacific peace and prosperity

As Australia focuses on its global interests in a changing and challenging international environment, there’s a danger that we’ll lose sight of important constants of history and geography.

We don’t have an either/or choice to focus on near or distant security imperatives. While the Australian Government’s decision to lift defence funding will help with this, cutting aid to help offset that boost may prove counterproductive.

We also need to further improve the quality of our aid and regional diplomacy, as well as the hard and soft aspects of our security engagement.

This paper suggests some useful first steps for doing so.

Australia, Indonesia and the prisoner’s dilemma

The bilateral relationship between Australia and Indonesia has long been a fraught one. The latest tussle, over the imminent execution of two Australian prisoners in Indonesia, prompted a series of posts on ASPI’s blog, The Strategist, framing the broader relationship in the context of the Prisoner’s Dilemma model from game theory.

Six contributors explored the issues at stake, with ASPI’s Executive Director, Peter Jennings both initiating the discussion and rounding it up. We present here the combined posts in the hope that they will further the national discussion about the future of our relationship with our large northern neighbour.

Whatever differences our contributors might have with each other, they would surely agree that the relationship is one of special significance for both Canberra and Jakarta.

Transport Fuels from Australia’s Gas Resources

The transport sector in Australia depends heavily on imported oil-based fuels. With this comes the ever-present risk of oil supply shortages. But Australia is gas-rich and oil-poor, so it makes practical sense to assess how our own gas resources can be used to produce these fuels.

Natural gas can be used directly as a fuel, blended with diesel in modified diesel engines, and converted into a conventional liquid fuel – all at a modest cost. This book, written by Australia’s leading experts in the field, demonstrates how using natural gas as a transport fuel could increase our fuel self-sufficiency to 50–70 per cent by 2030. And with three-quarters of our freight being moved by road, it’s clear that these developments will have major benefits for Australian transport efficiency.

Order a copy from New South Books. 

Towards inclusion: language use in the Department of Defence

Knowing more about a particular culture explains why an organisation is like it is, and why people behave and talk the way they do.

One important factor that perpetuates behaviours and makes change difficult is the use of language within the Defence organisation. Simply put, to change the way people behave, sometimes you have to change the way they talk.

This special report summarises a research project sponsored by the Secretary of Defence Fellowship program titled ‘Battling with words: a study of language, diversity and social inclusion in the Australian Department of Defence’.

Taking wing: time to decide on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter

The government is about to make a decision on whether to spend between $8 and 10 billion of taxpayer’s money on the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. It’s also an important call because it will cement the F-35 as the main instrument of Australian air-power for decades into the future.

The F-35 has a troubled past—management issues and the enormous complexity of the project have caused significant cost and schedule overruns. But now it seems to be on track to come into service with the RAAF in 2020, and to be a very capable aircraft.

The other option is a further purchase of less-advanced Super Hornets, which would come with a marginally lower price tag. But that choice would come at a cost to Canberra’s relationship with Washington as we pulled out of the US-run program, and provide less capability in a region replete with rapid military modernisation.

Special Report – A stitch in time: Preserving peace on Bougainville

Adecade after the successful peacekeeping mission, and a year and a half before the window opens for a referendum on Bougainville’s political status, the peace process is dangerously adrift.

In this paper, Peter Jennings and Karl Claxton set out a plan to help deliver a sustainable solution for next steps in the peace process. An Australian-led preventive development effort, conducted in close cooperation with our regional partners, is needed to avoid the future requirement for a larger, costlier, riskier, and more intrusive peacekeeping mission than the limited intervention appropriate in 1997-2003.

The new government’s decision to link aid more directly to our strategic interests could assist. While the initiative would require a significant initial investment, it could create a substantial longer-term cost saving and avoid serious military, diplomatic and reputational risks.

BLOG: Australia’s Bougainville challenge: aligning aid, trade and diplomacy in the national interest 

Strategic Insights 66 – Cold calculations: Australia’s Antarctic challenges

This Strategic Insights looks at the range of Australian objectives in Antarctica, the assumptions that underpin those goals, and the options open for us to best achieve our aims. It’s hoped that this report will inform those responsible for formulating and implementing our Antarctic policies. 

The paper looks at a range of strategic policy interests we have in Antarctica and whether we need to trade off any of these goals: 

  • preserving our sovereignty over our Antarctic territory 
  • maintaining the continent free from confrontation and militarisation 
  • protecting the Antarctic environment 
  • taking advantage of the special opportunities Antarctica offers for science 
  • deriving economic benefits from Antarctica 
  • insuring against unpredictable developments down south.

How we weigh and set both complementary and competing priorities among our Antarctic objectives (even if it’s somewhat imprecise) will be a key challenge, as will judging how other Antarctic players react to our policy objectives and our pursuit of them. Some of our policies mightn’t be complementary with those of other Antarctic players.