Australia’s intelligence community needs another independent review

On 9 March 2020 ASPI’s Danielle Cave co-authored an article with The Lowy Institute’s Alex Oliver focused on why women remain under-represented in senior and strategic roles in Australia’s intelligence community:

“The quality of the community’s output is dependent on the thousands of staff who manage an increasingly complex mix of operational, technical, and analytical work. Many of them work in high-pressure environments and are responsible for delivering the fruits of that work to the government, and to parliament.

A lack of independent and in-depth investigation over many decades has allowed a community to evolve in which women have not risen to the top at nearly the same rate as their male counterparts, which has produced a culture far less diverse than Australian society itself…

…The gap is most startling because, when you interrogate the data as we did for our 2019 report Foreign Territory: Women in International Relations, you can see it clearly. Our report found that Australia’s intelligence agencies, collectively, have the lowest proportions of women in leadership among the study sample, with female representation in the senior executive service across the community far lower than in the public service generally. Some agencies had actually suffered periodic declines in senior female representation.

We also discovered that there were fewer women in key senior intelligence roles, running operational, analytical, and technical divisions, posted in senior roles overseas and leading policy-shaping activities (such as reviews).”

Read the full article at the Lowy Interpreter here.

After Covid-19: Australia and the world rebuild (Volume 1)

This Strategy report offers policy-focused analysis of the world we will face once the pandemic has passed. At a time when all our assumptions about the shape of Australian society and the broader global order are being challenged, we need to take stock of likely future directions.

The report analyses 26 key topics, countries and themes, ranging from Australia’s domestic situation through to the global balance of power, climate and technology issues. In each case we asked the authors to consider four questions. What impact did Covid-19 have on their research topic? What will recovery mean? Will there be differences in future? What policy prescriptions would you recommend for the Australian government?

Webinar

Some of the report authors discussing their chapters here…

After COVID 19. Chapter summary

5G matters: (Geo)politics and critical national infrastructure

In January 2020 Danielle Cave contributed an essay for the Raisina Dialogue hosted by India’s largest think-tank The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) as part of ORF’s Raisina Edit series:

“Few people would have guessed that the ‘topic du jour’ for 2019 would be 5G. While telecommunications companies have long had their eye on the prize as the chief deployers of fifth-generation telecommunications, few world leaders, politicians, and key policy departments have had to pay much attention as we have slowly ticked over from 2G to 3G, and from 3G to 4G. But 5G, which is still very much on the horizon for most countries, is different. And it is different for a range of reasons.

First, 5G is a departure from its predecessors, because we are no longer dealing with just telecommunications. 5G will not just give us extra connectivity and faster smartphones; it will connect billions of smart devices, increasingly sophisticated smart cities, and will enable developments like autonomous vehicles. It will provide a platform for advances in robotics and artificial intelligence. While its predecessors brought us text messaging, wireless internet connections, mobile broadband, and cloud technologies, the power of 5G lies in the fact that it will underpin and enable other technological advancements (including those still in the pipeline).

So instead of seeing it as just another step forward for telecommunications, states must also view 5G’s strategic technology as critical national infrastructure….

…Because 5G is critical national infrastructure, decisions made about which companies to partner with really come down to a state’s risk appetite. And states across the world will assess the risks that matter to them and make different decisions. For many, decisions will not focus on the companies themselves. Rather, key consideration will be given to the rules, laws and norms that govern a company’s home environment and guide that state’s international behaviour.

Given the evidence available, Australia’s place in the world and our strategic outlook in the Indo-Pacific, Australia’s risk appetite had its limits. And that hard limit was working with high-risk vendors in a technological advancement critical to enabling the world’s next industrial revolution.”

Read Danielle’s full essay here.

Joint BBC-ASPI investigation into West Papua information operations

A joint investigation between the BBC and ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre analysed a well-funded and co-ordinated information campaign aimed at distorting the truth about events in Indonesia’s West Papua province, and has identified those responsible for its operation.

The researchers found that the campaign used slanted or factually untrue content (including “news” articles, infographics and videos) to promote narratives supportive of the Indonesian government’s actions in West Papua, and to undermine the pro-independence movement.

In a context like this in which independent media is restricted and verified information is scarce, a disinformation campaign such as the one the researchers uncovered has the potential to have a substantial impact on how the situation is perceived by the international community. This in turn could have implications for policies and decisions made by other governments, and in international forums such as the UN.

Building off earlier research published on Bellingcat, the researchers used open source data and digital forensics to analyse the campaign’s operations across multiple platforms and identify Jakarta-based communications consultancy InsightID as the source of the operation. 

This attribution was then confirmed by Facebook, and later acknowledged by the organisation itself.

A second, smaller campaign was also uncovered. Researchers tracked this campaign back to an individual with political connections. On being approached by the BBC, the individual eventually admitted his role in the campaign but insisted that they had been undertaken in his personal capacity and were not connected to his political work.

The investigation was led by BBC’s open source investigator Benjamin Strick and ASPI International Cyber Policy Centre researcher Elise Thomas and included:

A detailed report outlining the full investigation published on Bellingcat

Coverage of the investigation on the BBC in English and in Indonesian

Engineering global consent: The Chinese Communist Party’s data-driven power expansion

The Chinese party-state engages in data collection on a massive scale as a means of generating information to enhance state security—and, crucially, the political security of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—across multiple domains. The party-state intends to shape, manage and control its global operating environment so that public sentiment is favourable to its own interests. The party’s interests are prioritised over simply the Chinese state’s interests or simply the Chinese people’s interests. The effort requires continuous expansion of the party’s power overseas because, according to its own articulation of its threat perceptions, external risks to its power are just as likely—if not more likely—to emerge from outside the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) borders as from within.

This report explains how the party-state’s tech-enhanced authoritarianism is expanding globally. The effort doesn’t always involve distinctly coercive and overtly invasive technology, such as surveillance cameras. In fact, it often relies on technologies that provide useful services. Those services are designed to bring efficiency to everyday governance and convenience to everyday life. The problem is that it’s not only the customer deploying these technologies—notably those associated with ‘smart cities’, such as ‘internet of things’ (IoT) devices—that derives benefit from their use. Whoever has the opportunity to access the data a product generates and collects can derive value from the data. How the data is processed, and then used, depends on the intent of the actor processing it.

Asia’s Great Huawei Debate – A special on The Diplomat

Experts on Singapore, South Korea, India, Japan, and Australia weigh in on the Chinese telecom firm’s reception. Experts Pauline Reich, June Park, Aman Thakker, Motohiro Tsuchiya, and Danielle Cave explain how the Huawei debate has unfolded domestically in each of those countries, and what conclusions (if any) were reached.

Read a version of this article ‘Australia and the great Huawei debate: risks, transparency and trust on The Strategist here.

Access the Diplomat special Asia’s Great Huawei Debate here;

AISA Partnership with the International Cyber Policy Centre

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The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s International Cyber Policy Centre is delighted to announce a new partnership with the Australian Information Security Association (AISA).

As a not-for-profit, AISA champions the development of a robust information security sector by building the capacity of professionals and advancing the cyber security and safety of the public, businesses, and government in Australia.

“We are delighted to have AISA join as a partner,” said the Head of the International Cyber Policy Centre, Fergus Hanson. “AISA has a prominent voice in the information security space in Australia, and we look forward to an enduring partnership.”

AISA chairman Damien Manuel said ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre provided the focus needed to highlight the growing importance and impact of cyber-related issues and the need for sustained dialogue.

“The partnership strengthens the relationship between government, businesses and the community,” Mr Manuel said.

In October, AISA will join forces with the Australian Cyber Security Centre in Melbourne to launch the inaugural Australian Cyber Conference. The International Cyber Policy Centre will be an active participant in the Australian Cyber Conference.

Foreign Territory: Women in International Relations

Danielle Cave was a lead author in a three-year study by the Lowy Institute for International Policy ‘Foreign territory: Women in international relations’ that revealed severe gender imbalances in Australia’s international relations sector – including Australia’s diplomatic, national security and intelligence community, despite the existence of some prominent trailblazers.

“Australia’s international relations sector — the departments and organisations that are responsible for conducting Australia’s international relations — has a severe gender imbalance in its workforce. While there have been notable trailblazers, the pace of change has been slow and uneven across the sector. Few of the most important diplomatic postings have ever been held by a woman. Women do not appear in the sector’s key policy-shaping activities. Significantly fewer women are rising to senior positions in the sector compared with the Australian public sector as a whole, international peers, and the corporate sector. The gender imbalance in the Australian Intelligence Community is particularly pronounced. It is important for the sector to address this imbalance. A more diverse workforce will not only better reflect Australian society, but make full use of the available talent pool. There is substantial evidence from the private sector that gender-balanced workforces are more effective, efficient, and innovative. Until the sector better represents Australian society it fails to use the best available talent to navigate Australia’s place in an increasingly complex world.

The analysis, which was based on a lengthy and complicated process of collecting data from a 20-year period, took place from 2016–2018 and found three stark divides:

  1. A vertical divide: men and women in the international relations sector experience different pathways to seniority, particularly in the intelligence community
  2. A horizontal divide: women are more common in the ‘people’, corporate or ‘softer’ policy side of the house. We were repeatedly told in interviews that senior women are less likely to be running high-profile policy, operational or intelligence-focused branches and divisions
  3. A sharp ‘international’ divide between the sexes. Spending time overseas is an integral part of the career path for many in the international sector, but there is a disconnect between the gender balances in government agencies in Canberra and in their overseas workforces.

Read media coverage of the report in The Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian Financial Review, The Guardian and on ABC The World.

Admiral Michael S. Rogers to Join ASPI’s Cyber Centre as Distinguished Visiting Fellow

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s International Cyber Policy Centre is pleased to announce that Admiral Michael S. Rogers (retired) will join us as the Centre’s next Distinguished Visiting Fellow.

Admiral Rogers retired from the U.S. Navy in 2018 after nearly 37 years of naval service rising to the rank of four-star admiral. He culminated his career with a four-year tour as Commander, U.S. Cyber Command and Director, National Security Agency. In those roles he worked with the leadership of the U.S. government, the DoD and the U.S. Intelligence community as well as their international counterparts in the conduct of cyber and intelligence activity across the globe. He also assisted in the development of national and international policy with respect to cyber, intelligence and technology – including extensive work with corporate leadership in the Finance, IT, Telecommunications and Technology sectors.

ASPI’s Executive Director Peter Jennings said “I am delighted to welcome Admiral Rogers to Australia. As the international system enters a turbulent period, it is a great opportunity to hear from one of the world’s foremost intelligence officials”.

During his broader service in uniform, Admiral Rogers held positions afloat and ashore around the globe focusing on cyber, intelligence, maritime operations and national security. His joint service was extensive including duty with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Indo Pacific Command and U.S. Atlantic Command. In addition, Admiral Rogers commanded at the unit, Numbered Fleet and service component levels in the Navy.

Admiral Rogers is currently supporting companies in the private sector, serving as a member of various Boards or acting as a Senior Advisor. He also speaks globally to various business and academic groups and is working internationally in the cyber and national security arenas. He is a Senior Fellow and Adjunct Professor with Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Managements’ Public Private Initiative and a member of the advisory board of Auburn University’s McCrary Institute for Cyber and Critical Infrastructure. Admiral Rogers is a member of the AALD US advisory board. 

Admiral Rogers will be sharing his experience and insight as keynote speaker at ASPI’s National Security Dinner on 7 May. He will be resident at the Cyber Centre from 29 April to 15 May 2019.

Top US China specialist Peter Mattis announced as ASPI distinguished fellow

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is pleased to announce Peter Mattis – Research Fellow in China Studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation – as a distinguished ASPI fellow for 2019.

Peter will be spending the next month at ASPI working with the Institute’s different China specialists on a range of research projects.

Peter will also be a keynote speaker at ASPI’s inaugural China masterclass being held on 15 April in Canberra (almost sold out) and 17 April in Melbourne (tickets still available).

Executive Director Peter Jennings says: “ASPI is delighted to attract someone of Peter’s analytical calibre to spend a full month at our institute. Peter has made an enormous contribution to building the world’s knowledge of how the Chinese Communist Party, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China’s intelligence systems operate – both at home and around the world. Peter’s work spans across a broad range of topics, from better understanding PLA activity in cyberspace, to Chinese party-state influence operations, espionage and military modernisation. ASPI is looking forward to hosting Peter so that he can continue some of this important work over the next month”

Peter was formerly a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation where he edited China Brief and was an international affairs analyst for the US Government. He received his M.A. in Security Studies from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and earned his B.A. in Political Science and Asian Studies from the University of Washington in Seattle. He also previously worked as a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Asian Research in its Strategic Asia and Northeast Asian Studies programs.

Peter is in Australia from now until 18 April. For media enquiries please contact reneejones@aspi.org.au / 0400 424 323